Video Transcript / Subtitles:( AI generated. About AI subtitles » )

* AI ("Artificial Intelligence") subtitles on Tagalog.com are generated using "Whisper" by OpenAI (the same company that created ChatGPT and DallE2). Results and accuracy may vary.
* The subtitles do include errors occasionally and should only be used as a tool to help with your listening practice.
* You can request this website to create a transcript for a video if one doesn't already exist by clicking the "Request AI Subtitles" button below a video. Transcribing usually takes 30-40% of the length of a video to complete if there are no other videos in the queue. For example, a 21 minute video will take 7-8 minutes to transcribe.
* Running a super fast cloud GPU server to do these transcriptions does cost money. If you have the desire and financial ability, consider becoming a patron to support these video transcriptions, and the other tools and apps built by Tagalog.com

So would you say that meron ba ka talagang kailangan i-de-escalate?

Well, I mean, forget about tensions and escalation, we're reaching a moment of truth

because China has made it very clear that should the Philippines push ahead with fortifying

yung base natin, effectively yung base natin, yung Sierra Madre dyan sa Yung Insyol

or do something, anything major in other disputed areas, they're going to intervene militarily.

So they have made it very clear and at the same time they're also very concerned

dun sa direction ng Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement natin,

especially ng ETCA na medyo lumalapit sa Taiwan because may concerns din sila sa Taiwan.

So all of these things are coming together.

So I think as far as China is concerned, first of all, they're scrambling their head.

How did we go from Duterte who said, I love China, China will protect me and all of that

to this situation whereby you have a president who's doubling down on security cooperation

with the West, joint patrols, going to the Pentagon, going into PACOM.

So I think, first of all, there's a shock element there and that's why I'm worried.

So is it that though, Richard?

Or is it that?

Tweet on X, sorry.

Yung congratulatory message.

Well, that's just the latest iteration of this escalating tensions

because some people are saying that that was just a faux pas by BBM.

Perhaps na-excite siya masyado, na-congratulate siya.

But I think that was quite calculated.

I think the president was calculating.

Hindi tinitignan niya kung anong maging reaction sa China.

Yun ang basa ko dun eh.

Or sinasabing sa China na we have options in terms of getting closer to Taiwan, friendlier to Taiwan.

Pero okay, I'm going to cut you off right there.

Because historically, we do have...

We do follow this one-China...

We have our own one-China policy.

But unlike other countries, we also have special relationships with Taiwan.

Sure.

Abukod dun sa 200,000 OFWs natin dun.

Andun yung MECO office.

Yes, but the thing is, okay, just to be clear, I mean, I've been in Taiwan.

I was a visiting scholar there in National Changsha.

I met President Ma.

I met President Tsai.

One of the things I always notice when I meet them as a Filipino is like how little interaction we really have with Taiwan

compared to how much is at stake.

Not only 200,000.

Not only 200,000 OFWs.

But Taiwan is like the center of the universe when it comes to semiconductor production.

They're a super high-tech country.

You go to Vietnam.

You go to Thailand.

You go to Malaysia.

Vietnamese investors are all over the place.

You look at the Philippines.

Actually, not much has been going on.

And then during Digong, you had a former presidential spokesman who openly said,

oh, Taiwan is essentially a non-existent political entity.

It's just part of China.

So actually, there was a lot of dismissiveness.

And let's not forget, the other big problem we have is we don't put professional diplomats to represent us.

Dun sa Mekong.

It's usually some ex-official, some businessman.

Actually, I think with Sylvester Bell, it's a better case because we have so many OFWs.

So it's a really under-tapped relationship considering that it takes you just one hour to go to Taipei from Manila,

three hours to Singapore, three hours to Malaysia.

So what President Bibiang is perhaps saying here is that this under-tapped relationship could be a little bit more tapped than usual.

And they talk about economic relationship.

They talk about people-to-people.

But it could be strategic, especially because of ETCA.

If we give Americans more access to bases in Cagayan, Isabela,

more presence in Batanes for China, that's a nightmare situation.

Just when they're also worried about Ayungin Xol.

So this is where I think we need to have some conversation, really, with our Chinese counterparts.

Is it time to revisit the One China Policy?

This was actually adopted during Marcos Sr.'s time.

Fifty years later, should we rethink it?

And what cards do we have on that side?

Hindi ba pagka, kumbaga, nagagalit na nga sila dun sa EDGA eh.

And we further infuriate them.

We risk ourselves getting into that conflict on that side of the region.

Well, first of all, I would say there's like 50 shades of One China Policy, right?

Correct, correct.

More than 100 countries around the world.

I mean, ilan na lang bansa na hindi...

Kanya-kanyang interpretation.

Exactly.

So how you execute it really depends.

And it goes from administration to administration.

So we're just telling the Chinese that we may have a different shade of One China Policy,

which may be darker than what you want.

So I think that's a good...

In fact, you're absolutely right, Gretchen,

there is risk here, but there's also opportunity here.

Now, one of my controversial semi-arguments,

and I stand to be corrected by our friends in the government and all,

is that we actually can use the EDGA near Taiwan as a leverage of West Philippine Sea.

So we can tell the Chinese,

okay, there's EDGA, but it's up to us to decide how many American troops are there,

what weapon systems they put,

how much further north and north the Americans are going to go.

In exchange, medyo bring it down in the West Philippine Sea.

Hey, malay mo.

So that gives you leverage.

I'm sure.

It could be, right?

Both of us are playing for leverage.

The Chinese are seeing what we're doing, and we're seeing what you're doing.

May nababasa ako kasi na pagka nagre-react daw yung China violently against something.

Like for example, this pronouncement, congratulatory message of the President,

medyo dun sensitive si China eh.

Which in case nakita natin dito, our ambassador was summoned in China.

So yun siguro, yung parang touchpoint, sensitive touchpoint.

They're always sensitive.

I remember every time with their...

You offend the feelings of one billion people, yung mga ganun.

Richard's defense chief, Guibo Chodoro, also went in expressing his dismay over, quote,

the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson stooping down to gutter-level talk and even insulting the Philippine President.

Okay.

Here, I'm gonna make trouble.

Probably Guibo will not come to my show here anymore.

Yan itong sabihin ko.

Okay.

Ay, anong ko na sasabihin ko?

Hindi naman siya masyadong gutter.

No, no, no.

I think Guibo is not saying gutter.

And I think Guibo is doing a fantastic job of calling out.

Some of the wolf warrior diplomacy, you know, pakiyot na mga ano.

But, I'd rather have our DFA take the lead on statements about China.

When I hear non-DFA people saying, there's no point in diplomacy with China.

You know, malapit ang elections.

Mainit ang tao sa China.

I know everyone wants to be suddenly tough on China.

I'm not talking with Guibo per se.

But I remember very well during Duterte time, ilan lang kami, nag-oppose kay Duterte.

I'll just say it openly.

Suddenly now...

So, uso na ngayon maging anti-China and all.

For me, dapat ang uso ngayon, statesmanship.

Because mataas na intention.

Your president has already made the right decision.

U.S. is coming.

So, please lang.

Okay, this is the time for serious statesmanship.

This is not contributing.

So, all due respect, this is a great way of calling it out.

But I'd rather have Enrique Manalo and DFA people take the lead on this.

Why do you say that?

I mean, we've always...

We've seen that in the past year that tensions have been heightened.

Why are you suddenly...

You're becoming much more cautious now.

Is that related to...

Yeah, I know.

This doesn't sound Heidarian, right?

Yeah.

I'm always the guy, let's go, let's go.

Is that related to the Taiwan election result?

Everything.

I mean, for me, I think dark clouds are gathering.

China is very jittery these days.

Their economy is slowing down.

Xi Jinping is consolidating power.

So, everything goes strong.

It's on him.

We're not giving them anything.

I think there should be always an off-ramp in any situation of escalating tensions.

Just to make sure you keep it below a threshold.

Having said that, I'm still going to be Heidarian.

And I'm going to say, we need to show to China that we're here to get their respect.

I mean, Xi didn't respect us before.

You know, human nature, as you gather, you speak out, ganyan.

Medyo lumalapit ka sa risk.

You're poking the bear, kung baga.

Now, sinabi na ni Ambassador Huang Xilian na we are at a crossroads.

Don't play with fire.

We're at a crossroads.

I mean, do we just take this as more like, you know...

Is that a warning?

Ganito ang point ko.

I have nothing against...

Okay.

Nothing is going sports mode.

What I'm against is you go from zero to ten in like one year.

That's too fast.

Yes.

Look at where we were under the...

Like, if Aquino were the former president and then we're here right now, it's okay.

You went from six to eight or six...

You went from bigong to this.

Zero to ten, ganon.

Medyo hindi ma-appreciate, hindi ma-process ng China.

Speaking of, speaking of...

That's why I'm a little bit worried.

We made pronouncements that we were going to improve infrastructure in the Kalayaan group of islands.

I mean, is that further heightened tensions?

What do you think about that?

What do you think about announcing it?

That's number one.

And number two, is it the right decision to go?

The right direction to go at this point?

Again, this is like...

Again, all due respect to General Bronner.

Fantastic guy.

Great guy.

We also know he was there in the Royal Revolution, right?

Oh, na-water cannon siya.

So, again, I am all for patriotism.

I'm just saying, huwag natin isabay na sports mode natin all.

Kasi China is very jittery right now.

And they have like armada of militia wrestlers here in the West Philippine Sea.

Kailangan natin tandaan yun.

Except we've seen, actually.

It takes one fool to completely change the complexion of everything like that.

So, now you see why I'm kind of worried, suddenly.

These projects are already...

Have been budgeted.

Then do it quietly and slowly and sequentially.

And even that graphic, no?

Comparing China's military might with the US's military might.

I mean, medyo iba yung strengths and weaknesses nila.

Pero may laban siya eh.

And it's nothing to laugh about.

It's nothing to scoff at.

Medyo nakakatakot siya.

Kaya nga for me, I'm not endorsing any brand.

We need a Goldilocks approach, right?

Not too hot, not too cold.

The fundamental problem with Philippine foreign boss,

I've been written books and all about this.

We go these wild swings.

So, what's the sweet spot then?

The sweet spot is something you have to find.

But I don't think it's what we have right now.

Because I think we're overdoing it.

Kaya na sabi ko, shift gears tayo.

I'm going one, two, three.

I think we should have been at level three now.

We're already at level five right now.

So for me, you need to have a little bit of off-ramp.

The one good thing though, is you have a president.

He's very statesman-like.

You know, if you look at the statement of the president.

So, I want to hear more Enrique Manalo sometimes

and more of BBM.

Because I think we have already made it clear to China

that this is not Duterte administration.

We're not gonna be pushovers.

We're gonna stand our ground.

I'm all for that.

But level mo lang yan.

I-calibrate mo lang.

So, calibrated assertiveness is my position.

That's what we should do.

Could we learn a thing or two about how Taiwan has dealt

with the cross-strait situation?

With how DPP has dealt with it?

I mean, siyempre sila rin eh.

Pareho, they're managing that relations.

If you look at Tsai Ing-wen,

she comes from Democratic Progressive Party

which is known to be more pro-independence.

But throughout her eight-year term in office,

you didn't hear a single indication

that they're gonna push for a referendum.

Extremely careful.

Extremely careful.

I think there was one time though.

I think, was it the Vice President from the US visited?

Tapos, wah!

Something like that.

But if you look at it,

in fairness to Tsai Ing-wen,

she has been a stateswoman at the highest level.

And we're hoping,

and I kinda met William Lai last year during an event.

He gave a speech.

I feel there's that sense of continuity there.

So, if Taiwan, na sobrang kalaban talaga nila yung kabila,

At saka may threat na.

Mayroong magdumala.

What if no return?

Okay, obviously tapos na yung election sa Taiwan.

Pero what if yung komentang yung nanalo?

Yung opposition?

Would things be so much more different here for us?

They are friendlier towards China.

Which is ironic because yun ang kalaban nila ng Civil War.

Pero nagbago na yung ihip ng hangit.

Parang MILF tsaka MLF.

But if you follow the Taiwanese elections,

no one talked about reunification.

Because 70% of Taiwanese,

this was just around 20% a decade ago,

now feel purely as Taiwanese.

That means that any party in China,

in Taiwan sorry,

Republic of China,

has to really thread a careful line.

In the same way, in the Philippines,

80% are tough against China.

So, there's a consensus building in both countries

and that will shape their democratic politics.

Dapat morning show tayo kasi masyadong nangyayari.

Pero alam mo Richard,

I trust na hindi pa to yung end of it.

So for sure, balik ka.

Siguro yung message niya,

I'll join you from Beijing next.

Don't let emotions run high.

And you're right,

this is the first time I've seen you like this.

And we talk this way,

because it's the first time we've seen you like this.

It's the first time we've seen you like this.

Very Uncle Darian.

May nawawala pala si Ju.

At the start of 2024.

Alright, thank you so much for your insights tonight

and your time for joining us.

Pleasure, thank you.

Thank you.

UP Asian Center Senior Lecturer, Richard Hay Darian.

Do catch more Feminist Analysis