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00:00.0
Pagdating sa geopolitics, there are two things that you have to keep in mind.
00:03.7
First of all, geography shapes national security needs and therefore your foreign and defense policy.
00:09.6
Kung ikaw ay isang landlocked country, iba yung national security needs mo
00:12.4
kumpara sa isang archipelagic or island nation country, like the Philippines for instance.
00:17.6
Now, pangalawa, allies cannot be neutral in times of war.
00:22.1
The reality is that pagdating sa panahon ng gera,
00:24.6
kung yung aliado mo is in the midst of a major crisis at namamatay sila,
00:31.0
hindi mo pwede sabihin na, uy, neutral kami, hindi namin kayo tutulungan.
00:34.9
Now, when it comes to Taiwan, those two elements come together for the Philippines.
00:40.2
Unang-una, napakalapit ang Taiwan sa Pilipinas.
00:42.9
In fact, Taipei, the capital of Taiwan, you can get from Manila to there with a flight of just over an hour.
00:49.1
Now, if you want to go to any other major as in capital, it will take two hours, three hours or more.
00:54.6
The other thing to keep in mind is actually when it comes to Taiwan,
00:58.6
if an invasion of Taiwan happens, most likely, almost certainly,
01:03.2
ang Amerika, possibly also Japan and Australia will be involved.
01:07.3
Now, Pilipinas is a treaty ally of the United States, so we cannot say, oh, we're going to be neutral.
01:12.9
In fact, kung ikaw in China, you're going to more likely count that the Philippines will remain as a U.S. ally
01:18.1
and will help the United States in times of war if China decides to invade Taiwan.
01:23.9
That's why, if you're going to invade Taiwan, you're going to have to be neutral.
01:24.6
That's why, malaking stake natin sa pangyayari sa cross-trace relations.
01:28.8
Now, luckily, after the latest elections in Taiwan, yes, of course, nalang yung party na ayaw ng Beijing.
01:34.2
The reality is that if you look at Tsai Ing-wen and now the incoming President Lai, both of them are statesmen.
01:40.3
They do not want conflict with China. In fact, no Taiwanese wants conflict with China.
01:45.0
And vice versa, China will talk tough, will threaten to invade Taiwan, will talk about reunification.
01:50.0
But the reality is that China's economy is not doing very well. They have a lot of problems at home.
01:54.6
And perhaps, they're not in the mood for getting into a major war that could cause them even more troubles.
02:00.2
And look at what happened in Ukraine, Russia. Pretty school.
02:03.6
So probably, instead of Taiwan more worrying about becoming Ukraine 2.0, China is worrying about being Putin 2.0.
02:10.9
Now, having said all of that, ano dapat ang gagawin ng Pilipinas ngayon?
02:14.7
Now, when it comes to Philippines, I think we can reasonably feel confident na walang major war na mangyayari in the near to medium run.
02:24.6
So ano dapat ang gagawin natin for our own national interests?
02:29.2
Well, obviously, dahil binubuli tayo sa West Philippine Sea,
02:33.7
ma-interes ang Pilipinas to retain strong alliances, not only with the United States,
02:38.0
pero yung mga ibang like-minded countries, katulad ng Japan or Australia,
02:40.8
who are either enjoying or about to enjoy status of forces agreement or visiting forces agreement style kinds of agreement with the Philippines.
02:50.9
Now, the thing is this.
02:53.7
Pagdating sa West Philippine,
02:54.6
pag nakita mo, China is becoming more aggressive towards the Philippines.
02:59.1
Kasi ang basa ko dyan is they're worried that the Philippines is getting more and more involved also in the Taiwan question.
03:08.2
If you look in the map, a lot of the new bases na binigay ng Pilipinas sa Amerika sa ilalim ng Enhanced Defense Coverage Agreement
03:16.9
ay sa mga northernmost provinces natin.
03:19.8
Cagayan, Isabela.
03:20.9
And in fact, we have some bases that are extremely close.
03:24.6
Sa southern shores of Taiwan, just over 100 miles.
03:27.2
Think about, for instance, Mavulis.
03:29.9
Now, the fear of China is that the Philippines will give Americans not only more access,
03:33.6
but Americans the permission to put very heavy weapon systems in those areas
03:37.8
as a potential storage or as a potential logistical support base for any operations against China kung na-invade ng China ang Taiwan.
03:47.6
So that means China is paying very, very close attention to the Philippine policy towards Taiwan.
03:52.9
But this also gives us leverage.
03:56.2
It is true na binibuli tayo lalo, especially kung titignan mo yung reaction ng China sa Ayunginsol.
04:01.4
Ang tagal na yung Sierra Madre dyan.
04:02.8
Pero ngayon, biglang aggressive ng China big time.
04:05.4
Sa aking palagay, they're doing that in order to make us think twice about building up our security cooperation with the United States.
04:14.0
Now, that gives us a leverage because ang pwedeng gagawin ng Pilipinas is to say,
04:17.5
okay, hindi makawalang ETCA, hindi makawalang alayansa natin with America because hindi naman kami,
04:22.9
you know, hindi naman kami, you know, fools.
04:27.6
Alam natin na kung wala tayong backup and allies, kung one-on-one lang with China, good luck na lang.
04:32.0
And ano, aasa tayo sa ASEAN or United Nations?
04:34.5
Well, tell me about that.
04:37.3
But ang pwedeng gagawin ng Pilipinas is this.
04:39.5
Sa Sabinia, kung medyo ayus-aisin mo dyan sa West Philippine Sea, medyo huwag mong masyadong mag-bully ng next level,
04:46.5
ayan mo kami na, you know, quietly fortify our presence dyan sa Ayunginsol, yung Sierra Madre,
04:52.9
sa, you know, sa Pagasa Islands, among others.
04:57.1
Then, siguro, hindi namin papayagan ng mga Amerikanong maglalagay ng pinaka-advanced weapon systems dyan palapit sa Taiwan,
05:03.9
High Mars, Patriot missile systems, or huge number of soldiers.
05:07.8
So, these are the things na pwede adjust ng Pilipinas and could be part of a quiet diplomacy and negotiation with China.
05:14.0
So, in short, hindi tayo dapat against diplomacy.
05:17.7
We should be against a diplomacy that is bara-bara and comes from a position of weakness.
05:22.9
We have diplomacy with China, but it has to come from a position of strength.
05:26.9
And I think the Taiwan issue gives the Philippines some significant leverage when we're dealing with China.
05:32.1
And that's how you think about diplomacy.
05:34.8
It's not about war ka agad or diplomacy in submission.
05:38.6
It's about smart diplomacy and dealing with your rivals or enemies from a position of relative strength or at least not so much weakness.
