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Pagdating sa geopolitics, there are two things that you have to keep in mind.

First of all, geography shapes national security needs and therefore your foreign and defense policy.

Kung ikaw ay isang landlocked country, iba yung national security needs mo

kumpara sa isang archipelagic or island nation country, like the Philippines for instance.

Now, pangalawa, allies cannot be neutral in times of war.

The reality is that pagdating sa panahon ng gera,

kung yung aliado mo is in the midst of a major crisis at namamatay sila,

hindi mo pwede sabihin na, uy, neutral kami, hindi namin kayo tutulungan.

Now, when it comes to Taiwan, those two elements come together for the Philippines.

Unang-una, napakalapit ang Taiwan sa Pilipinas.

In fact, Taipei, the capital of Taiwan, you can get from Manila to there with a flight of just over an hour.

Now, if you want to go to any other major as in capital, it will take two hours, three hours or more.

The other thing to keep in mind is actually when it comes to Taiwan,

if an invasion of Taiwan happens, most likely, almost certainly,

ang Amerika, possibly also Japan and Australia will be involved.

Now, Pilipinas is a treaty ally of the United States, so we cannot say, oh, we're going to be neutral.

In fact, kung ikaw in China, you're going to more likely count that the Philippines will remain as a U.S. ally

and will help the United States in times of war if China decides to invade Taiwan.

That's why, if you're going to invade Taiwan, you're going to have to be neutral.

That's why, malaking stake natin sa pangyayari sa cross-trace relations.

Now, luckily, after the latest elections in Taiwan, yes, of course, nalang yung party na ayaw ng Beijing.

The reality is that if you look at Tsai Ing-wen and now the incoming President Lai, both of them are statesmen.

They do not want conflict with China. In fact, no Taiwanese wants conflict with China.

And vice versa, China will talk tough, will threaten to invade Taiwan, will talk about reunification.

But the reality is that China's economy is not doing very well. They have a lot of problems at home.

And perhaps, they're not in the mood for getting into a major war that could cause them even more troubles.

And look at what happened in Ukraine, Russia. Pretty school.

So probably, instead of Taiwan more worrying about becoming Ukraine 2.0, China is worrying about being Putin 2.0.

Now, having said all of that, ano dapat ang gagawin ng Pilipinas ngayon?

Now, when it comes to Philippines, I think we can reasonably feel confident na walang major war na mangyayari in the near to medium run.

So ano dapat ang gagawin natin for our own national interests?

Well, obviously, dahil binubuli tayo sa West Philippine Sea,

ma-interes ang Pilipinas to retain strong alliances, not only with the United States,

pero yung mga ibang like-minded countries, katulad ng Japan or Australia,

who are either enjoying or about to enjoy status of forces agreement or visiting forces agreement style kinds of agreement with the Philippines.

Now, the thing is this.

Pagdating sa West Philippine,

pag nakita mo, China is becoming more aggressive towards the Philippines.

Kasi ang basa ko dyan is they're worried that the Philippines is getting more and more involved also in the Taiwan question.

Bakit ka mo?

If you look in the map, a lot of the new bases na binigay ng Pilipinas sa Amerika sa ilalim ng Enhanced Defense Coverage Agreement

ay sa mga northernmost provinces natin.

Cagayan, Isabela.

And in fact, we have some bases that are extremely close.

Two.

Sa southern shores of Taiwan, just over 100 miles.

Think about, for instance, Mavulis.

Now, the fear of China is that the Philippines will give Americans not only more access,

but Americans the permission to put very heavy weapon systems in those areas

as a potential storage or as a potential logistical support base for any operations against China kung na-invade ng China ang Taiwan.

So that means China is paying very, very close attention to the Philippine policy towards Taiwan.

But this also gives us leverage.

It is true na binibuli tayo lalo, especially kung titignan mo yung reaction ng China sa Ayunginsol.

Ang tagal na yung Sierra Madre dyan.

Pero ngayon, biglang aggressive ng China big time.

Sa aking palagay, they're doing that in order to make us think twice about building up our security cooperation with the United States.

Now, that gives us a leverage because ang pwedeng gagawin ng Pilipinas is to say,

okay, hindi makawalang ETCA, hindi makawalang alayansa natin with America because hindi naman kami,

you know, hindi naman kami, you know, fools.

Alam natin na kung wala tayong backup and allies, kung one-on-one lang with China, good luck na lang.

And ano, aasa tayo sa ASEAN or United Nations?

Well, tell me about that.

But ang pwedeng gagawin ng Pilipinas is this.

Sa Sabinia, kung medyo ayus-aisin mo dyan sa West Philippine Sea, medyo huwag mong masyadong mag-bully ng next level,

ayan mo kami na, you know, quietly fortify our presence dyan sa Ayunginsol, yung Sierra Madre,

sa, you know, sa Pagasa Islands, among others.

Then, siguro, hindi namin papayagan ng mga Amerikanong maglalagay ng pinaka-advanced weapon systems dyan palapit sa Taiwan,

High Mars, Patriot missile systems, or huge number of soldiers.

So, these are the things na pwede adjust ng Pilipinas and could be part of a quiet diplomacy and negotiation with China.

So, in short, hindi tayo dapat against diplomacy.

We should be against a diplomacy that is bara-bara and comes from a position of weakness.

Yes.

We have diplomacy with China, but it has to come from a position of strength.

And I think the Taiwan issue gives the Philippines some significant leverage when we're dealing with China.

And that's how you think about diplomacy.

It's not about war ka agad or diplomacy in submission.

It's about smart diplomacy and dealing with your rivals or enemies from a position of relative strength or at least not so much weakness.