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00:00.0
Okay, sa previous episodes, we discussed many important issues. Pinag-usapan natin ang Valentine's greetings ni BBM and then pinag-usapan natin really serious issues na heartening, very heartening issues like more and more Filipinos want justice for the victims of EJK and more and more Filipinos.
00:18.7
Tama yung sinabi mo Ronald, they want na isang matinong paraan in terms of dealing with the problems of crimes and drug problems in the country. Now, pag-usapan naman natin ang national defense. This is a big issue. So recently, na-clarify ang ating mga top leaders kasama dyan si Gibo na hindi lang minimum credible defense ang hanap natin. Gusto natin maging a modern 21st century armed forces.
00:43.2
I'm quoting actually Mike Lohico from Office of the Philippines during interview namin and I quoted him in a recent article.
00:48.7
You can check it on Asia Times. Nagtetrending na yan. So $36 billion ang inaalocate natin over the next decade dun sa third horizon or re-horizon ng 15-year modernization program na nagsimula sa panon ni Pinoy.
01:05.9
So the first AFP modernization was passed under Ramos in the mid-1990s in light of what happened sa Panginiban Reef at yung pag-alis sa mga Amerikano. So we have to rely on our own. Unfortunately, nangyari ang Asian financial crisis and ERAP.
01:18.7
So good luck with that. Now, we got a second chance especially after Scar Bartol and Pinoy pushed for modernization. Now, we're pushing it to the next level.
01:26.8
We're even discussing about multiple submarine acquisition, Air Force, etc.
01:32.2
So Ronald, can you tell us a little bit about the thinking when Pinoy pushed for AFP modernization?
01:36.6
Kasi parati ko narinig, ah, ang Pilipinas masyadong mahirap. Baka tayo nag-invest.
01:40.2
Well, no one is going to take you seriously and no one is going to take our sovereign rights seriously if we cannot defend ourselves.
01:44.3
Hindi naman tayo pwede umasa sa Amerika forever and we saw also the limits of that alliance.
01:48.7
What is your take on that?
01:50.4
Well, meron tayong waves of AFP modernization. Alam mo yan. Nangyari yan noong panahon ni FBR, panahon ni ERAP, panahon ni GMA na napakahaba noong term, nine years.
02:00.5
Pero alam din natin sa expose ng mga reformists within the armed forces na marami dyan napunta sa korupsyon.
02:09.5
Ilang mutiny nga ang nangyari dahil dyan. Ang tawag nila, conversion.
02:15.1
Yung dapat sana ginagamit sa modernization na pupupunta.
02:18.7
Pupunta sa bulsa ng mga tipo nila, Comptroller General Garcia, na mukhang nakakalayaan na nitong nakaraang mga taon.
02:29.0
So, meron pa nga isang head ng Defense Department, yung nag-suicide.
02:35.7
Naalala mo? Si Angie Reyes nagpakamatay dahil na kinonfront siya dito sa corruption within the Defense Department.
02:44.1
So, yun yung baka kinakailangan din ng summation.
02:48.7
Hindi lang yung summation sa anti-drug, anti-criminal campaign.
02:53.5
Ano yung summation dito sa AMP modernization na nagsimula decades ago?
03:00.3
Kaya Pinoy really put his foot down na hindi na pwede ito.
03:05.7
Kung hindi, magkakaroon tayo ng cycle na mutiny dahil nakikita ng mga officers na yung dapat ginagamit para sa defense ng bansa.
03:16.6
Lalo na with a super power infringing on our territory ay nawawala.
03:23.7
Kaya yun yung dun sinimulan yung isang seryoso na modernization.
03:31.1
Pero hindi naman niya magagawa in a few years. Medyo mahabang proseso yan.
03:36.6
At syempre kasabay niyan ay yung pagunlad ng bansa.
03:39.5
Dahil saan mo kukunin yung budget? Saan mo kukunin yung revenues?
03:44.4
Lalo na yung mga modernist leaders.
03:46.6
Ayaw naman na mabaon tayo sa utang. Kaya kailangan realistic din.
03:51.1
Kaya in that context, hindi ko alam kung ano yung sinasabi nila na tayo ay maging middle level military power.
03:59.3
Baka pili tayo ng tatlong submarines. Anong klaseng submarines yan?
04:04.9
Yung diesel powered? Nuclear submarine?
04:09.7
Tapos yan ba ay dependsa lamang para sa internal threats o sa external threats?
04:16.6
Dahil ngayon kasi nauubos na yung internal threats eh. Mas external na.
04:22.4
Pero sa external, ang kaharap natin is the biggest navy in the world, for example.
04:27.9
Hindi tayo makakahabol dyan kahit anong gawin natin.
04:31.0
Ikalawa, ay hindi naman ganun kabilis yung ating pagunlad.
04:35.2
Kahit sinasabi na tayo ang fastest growing economy in the region,
04:40.1
e nalapasan na nga tayo ng Vietnam eh.
04:43.1
Ibig sabihin, yung propaganda, wag tayo masyadong maniwala.
04:46.6
So, i-calibrate din natin yung modernization based sa ating capacity.
04:52.1
Baka mamaya kasi maglagay tayo ng mga targets na hindi naman natin kaya.
04:56.4
Halimbawa, nakalagay doon sa proposal, three submarines.
05:00.1
Anong klaseng submarines?
05:02.0
Alam mo ba Richard, na to train submariners, kinakailangan mo ng 8 to 10 years.
05:08.3
Unless ang magpapatakbo niya ay puro foreigners.
05:11.6
Diba? Wala naman tayong karanasan ng mga submariners.
05:14.6
So, ititrain natin yan sa abroad.
05:16.6
Kinakailangan dyan ng 8 to 10 years na training.
05:20.1
Ibig sabihin, magagawa natin yan siguro after a decade.
05:24.9
Kaya, ang gusto ko lang manaman, ano ba yung realistic,
05:30.2
at the same time, not too ambitious na target.
05:34.9
Na dapat naman talagang gawin dati pa, decades ago,
05:38.8
pero hindi nagawa because of corruption within our defense establishment.
05:43.7
Kaya, yun yung I agree.
05:46.6
Na kinakailangan talaga i-implement yung modernization na yan.
05:50.5
Pero huwag tayong magkaroon ng illusion na, anong sinasabi?
05:56.5
Middle level military power.
05:59.4
Ang alam kong middle level, itong mga ko, Indonesia.
06:03.9
Diba? Yan yung mga alam ko.
06:09.2
Grabe yung fighter jets ng Singapore para sa isang mga lingkabasa.
06:14.4
Oo, medyo malayo tayo dyan.
06:16.6
Kaya magsisimula pa lang tayo mag-train ng mga top gun.
06:20.0
Alam mo ba ang training ng top gun?
06:22.3
Mas mahaba pa yan sa training ng mga doktor.
06:25.8
Medyo 15 years program.
06:27.8
Oo, hindi yan ganung kadali.
06:29.7
Kaya, huwag natin lokohin yung ating mga sarili.
06:32.5
Yun lang naman yung sinasabi ko eh.
06:34.7
Sa akin, okay na.
06:35.2
Ako na, push back against you.
06:36.9
I see where you're coming from.
06:40.5
But my push back against you would be,
06:41.9
first of all, huwag natin kalimutan,
06:43.4
in the 50s and 60s, we had the most advanced military.
06:46.6
In Southeast Asia.
06:47.5
Tayong kinakatakot ng mga kapitbahay natin.
06:50.8
Pag tinignan mo yung mga cables ni Henry Kissinger,
06:53.1
nung paano ng Nixon,
06:54.6
takot ang Amerika na madamay sila
06:57.4
dito sa mga pambubuli na ginagawa natin.
06:59.9
Like, let's be honest,
07:01.2
hindi natuwang Vietnam and Malaysia
07:02.7
nung nag-build tayo sa pag-asa, right?
07:04.6
Pero wala silang magawa.
07:05.9
Tapos takot na takot sila,
07:07.3
nasusugurin pa natin yung Saba, diba?
07:09.4
So actually, if not for the war in Mindanao,
07:12.6
and the insurgencies and all of that,
07:14.7
Philippines would have remained
07:15.8
as one of the most,
07:16.4
as advanced armed forces.
07:18.4
But unfortunately, because of corruption,
07:20.0
because of Mindanao conflict,
07:22.2
because of bad governance and leadership
07:24.3
and a combination of factors,
07:26.0
naging least developed military tayo
07:27.6
compared to our size.
07:29.0
So for me, I think now there's...
07:30.1
Pero wag mo rin kalimutan, Richard.
07:32.2
Meron tayong Clark, Subic, Sangli bases nun.
07:36.3
Kahit ipagsama-sama lahat ng bases
07:38.2
ng US around the world,
07:39.7
hindi magkakasya sa Clark yun.
07:42.5
That was the biggest overseas American bases.
07:45.3
So there was also that
07:46.1
abnormality, I would say.
07:48.1
Hindi mga third-hand World War II vintage
07:53.0
boats yung binibigay sa atin noon.
07:55.9
Medyo yung top of the line.
07:58.1
Top of the line, exactly.
08:00.2
Thank you for pointing that out.
08:01.0
Because we were like the forward deployment base
08:03.2
of the American Empire.
08:05.3
sana matapos na yung panahon na yan.
08:06.2
Especially during the Vietnam War, diba?
08:08.6
And also Korean War.
08:10.6
Korean War, Vietnam War.
08:12.2
Na nakasama tayo, no?
08:13.9
But my point, Ronald, is,
08:16.1
hindi na pwede tayo umasa lang sa Amerika.
08:18.7
And America is more of a geopolitical reality
08:21.8
than a geographic reality.
08:23.6
China is the geographic reality.
08:25.4
And at some point,
08:26.1
geography may trump geopolitics.
08:29.1
Kung hindi nanalo ang Amerika sa Second World War,
08:31.4
Japan ang maging superpower dito.
08:35.2
as one of the biggest archipelagic nations
08:37.1
with fifth or sixth largest baselines in the world,
08:40.0
has to have a decent navy.
08:41.9
Several submarines,
08:43.0
several advanced warships,
08:44.2
maybe one helicopter,
08:46.9
carrier at least, if not.
08:49.0
kasi the reason I'm saying that, Ronald,
08:50.3
is our GDP is almost half a trillion dollars.
08:52.5
And even if sobrang mediocre yung quality of growth,
08:55.7
if we continue to grow at 5, 6, 7 percent,
08:57.5
we'll be a trillion dollar economy
08:59.0
within the next decade.
09:00.5
So that puts us in the top 25 in the world.
09:03.6
a country with a population of 120 million,
09:05.7
with the six largest
09:06.9
or top 10 largest baselines in the world,
09:10.8
coastal lines in the world,
09:12.0
a country with problems with a country like China,
09:14.8
and with serious concerns,
09:16.0
over reliability of America,
09:17.3
especially if a Trumpian figure
09:18.5
or Trump himself comes back,
09:20.1
I think it reasonably makes sense for us
09:21.6
to put some amount of significant amount
09:25.2
in our defense capabilities
09:26.8
so we have a say in protecting our...
09:29.4
Kasi we are talking about, Ronald,
09:31.9
trillions of dollars of oil and gas
09:34.0
and fishery resources
09:36.3
in Philippine Sea,
09:37.2
in West Philippine Sea.
09:38.5
Andami natin mga karagatan eh.
09:40.2
So hindi pwede na...
09:41.9
I know, billions is not small.
09:43.7
You could put that money in something more important.
09:46.0
But if you cannot defend it,
09:47.7
kakainin tayo ng buhay.
09:48.8
We're in a Darwinian world,
09:49.9
whether we like it or not.
09:51.2
That's the Chinese,
09:52.5
the other powers,
09:53.9
they don't look at the world through,
09:55.7
through civil society prism.
09:57.1
They look at it through a very realist perspective.
09:59.4
So I think we have to respond to that accordingly.
10:03.0
even if we spend $10 billion
10:04.5
on acquisition of submarines,
10:06.9
et cetera, et cetera,
10:08.0
that's still a small part of our GDP
10:10.4
because our GDP is already almost $500 billion.
10:13.4
So we'll be still spending
10:15.1
between $1 billion to $2 billion
10:16.8
and still we can build a decent
10:18.8
military and catch-up.
10:20.8
That's where I'm coming from,
10:21.7
because I'm looking at the calculation here.
10:23.3
US is spending 3% to 4%
10:25.1
of its GDP sometimes.
10:28.2
No, we spend only 1% to 2%
10:29.7
and still we can have
10:30.9
a decent armed forces.
10:33.7
we're the second largest
10:35.4
to have like bottom half level
10:38.1
of Navy and Air Force.
10:40.5
Parang ang Myanmar pa yata,
10:42.1
mas maganda pa yung kanilang mga...
10:43.7
May submarine pa yata
10:46.7
I mean like this is crazy.
10:48.1
They have some advanced fighter jets
10:51.7
F-A-50 na trainer fighters lang
10:54.7
So I'm just saying,
10:56.2
I understand where you're coming from.
10:58.7
we punch well below our weight,
11:01.5
kailangan ng konting overcompensation.
11:03.3
I hate to say it that way.
11:04.4
But even we don't over...
11:06.4
si Eden said here.
11:08.3
We need ambitious but realistic.
11:10.3
Ambitious but realistic approach.
11:11.8
Kasi your warning is
11:12.8
don't be ambisyoso
11:17.2
But I'm just saying...
11:18.1
And the other thing
11:18.7
I want to add, Ronald,
11:19.4
is one of the problems
11:21.0
umasa lang tayo sa Amerika.
11:22.5
We never built our own
11:23.6
industrial military complex.
11:25.4
I know it's a dirty word.
11:26.9
But you need to have
11:27.7
your own domestic industry
11:29.5
so you can maintain
11:30.7
and build your own warships.
11:33.4
nag-import tayo ng warships
11:36.3
forget about US and now.
11:38.3
ay supplier natin ng warships.
11:39.8
Why should the Philippines,
11:41.8
the top five producers
11:42.9
of ships in the world
11:44.4
with the best seamen
11:46.0
buy from Indonesia?
11:48.4
We should be able
11:49.0
to build it for ourselves.
11:50.5
I hope this will be
11:51.4
also the beginning of that,
11:52.5
of the Philippines
11:52.9
developing its own
11:53.8
military industrial complex.
11:55.9
Not in a bad way,
11:59.7
And you can create
12:01.3
bring in engineers,
12:02.7
defend our national security.
12:03.8
That's where I'm coming from, Ronald.
12:06.4
I agree with you, no?
12:09.5
defense at saka security.
12:11.3
Ganun din yung framework ko.
12:12.8
Ambitious but realistic.
12:17.6
pag sinabi mo nga
12:23.2
that's a bit ambitious.
12:24.6
Dahil manggagaling tayo
12:27.3
Medyo malaking jump yan.
12:28.9
Medyo masyadong palunon.
12:30.4
Eh, tayo yung isa
12:32.0
ang Gini coefficient eh.
12:33.9
In terms of inequality.
12:38.0
kailangan ayusin eh.
12:42.2
dapat lagyan mo ng
12:42.9
substance yung ating growth.
12:46.9
hindi industrial based eh.
12:49.0
Hindi agriculture based.
12:50.3
Hindi yung real economy eh.
12:53.2
pag naayos mo yan,
12:54.4
mas marami tayong
12:57.4
Dapat sustainable
12:60.0
Yun ang naman sinasabi ko.
13:01.8
Dahil marami pang
13:04.9
I don't want to take
13:06.7
dun sa mga problema
13:09.4
nasisingilin tayo
13:16.0
i-balance mo yan.
13:17.9
I-balance mo yan.
13:20.4
ang agriculture mo
13:24.7
Ang manufacturing mo
13:30.6
or to some extent
13:32.8
Yung sinasabi natin na
13:38.4
military capacity.
13:41.6
may mga hunta yan eh.
13:43.6
A large part of the
13:46.8
Parang North Korea-Stalin.
13:49.5
ganoon din ang minta.
13:50.4
These are hunta eh, no?
13:52.4
wala silang pakailam
13:53.3
doon sa ibang aspeto
13:54.4
ng kanilang bansa.
13:56.1
binabalansin natin, no?
13:59.6
Kailangan din natin
14:01.3
yung economy natin
14:03.9
yung military spending,
14:07.8
ng industrial-military complex
14:09.5
na tayo na yung gagawa
14:12.0
mga sariling barko.
14:13.3
Yan, basic yan eh.
14:16.5
one of the biggest
14:21.3
ay isa sa strong point
14:27.3
for the first time,
14:28.1
pumunta rito yung Osea.
14:29.9
It's a French company
14:31.1
na kina-host up ko
14:34.1
cabinet secretary
14:39.5
para sa Coast Guard.
14:41.1
Para sa lima-anim
14:46.8
na lalaki ang ating
14:49.3
Kaya nagtayo na sila
14:50.9
starting last year.
14:53.2
Starting last year.
14:54.2
So, kailangan natin
14:55.5
para i-train tayo
14:58.9
ay hindi sila mismo
15:02.6
ang strength kasi nila
15:06.2
Ang strength nila
15:10.1
ang binibili ng Japan.
15:11.9
Ang binibili ng Japan.
15:13.3
Japan ang gumagawa
15:17.8
yung ating partnership
15:20.6
Pero hirap pa tayo
15:22.0
sa design at this point eh.
15:23.7
Tulungan natin sila.
15:24.3
Eventually, we have to be
15:25.0
part of the supply chain.
15:26.5
Parang that's your idea.
15:28.2
Yun ang sinasabi ko.
15:31.8
Halimbawa sa shipping.
15:36.8
halimbawa pag sinasabi mong
15:43.3
kayang gawin overnight.
15:45.9
Hindi yan kayang gawin.
15:47.5
meron kang ibang mga
15:51.8
vertical linkages
15:54.5
Dapat nagke-create yan
16:06.0
hindi ka kagad magsisimula
16:07.0
sa mga military vessels.
16:08.6
Magsimula ka muna
16:09.5
sa mga coast guard vessels.
16:12.3
parang nag-i-scale up ka
16:17.9
anong ginagawa nila ngayon?
16:19.7
comparative advantage
16:26.0
Yun yung ginagawa nila ngayon.
16:36.0
hindi ko nakikita
16:39.7
Gumawa tayo ng plan
16:43.5
industrial military
16:47.8
bahagi ng isang plano?
16:50.1
crunch the numbers?
16:52.9
crunch the numbers?
16:53.8
Ano na mapupunta rito?
16:55.2
Ano mapupunta rito?
17:03.1
something dramatic
17:05.7
Parang kanyan eh.
17:29.3
ang pinakamataas mo na
17:32.7
sa iyong education
17:40.8
Parang naman yung
17:47.4
Mababang usapan niya.
17:50.1
Yung head ng DepEd
17:50.9
hindi mapaliwanag
17:53.7
nung humarap sa Senate.
17:56.7
They don't have a
17:57.4
single education expert
17:59.3
Name me a single person
18:01.9
PhD in education.
18:07.2
education expert.
18:09.0
Puro mga abogado lang.
18:15.5
isang undersecretary?
18:21.3
undersecretary ng DepEd
18:24.2
Saan nang gagaling
18:25.5
Saan nang gagaling
18:27.0
itong idiot na ito?
18:28.7
Saan nang gagaling
18:29.7
itong idiot na ito
18:33.9
nung PISA report?
18:36.3
ang sinasabi ko lang
18:38.6
tignan natin yung
18:39.6
tignan natin yung
18:41.9
Yung modernization
18:47.5
sino yung itituloy mo
18:51.6
education system?
18:55.2
Puro mercenaries?
18:59.7
mga fighter jets?
19:03.2
kailangan manggaling
19:05.4
kasama yung ating
19:06.2
education system,
19:25.7
Systematic talaga
19:26.5
dapat yung approach.
19:27.3
I completely agree
19:29.1
I completely agree
19:33.1
we can have a long
19:33.6
conversation about this
19:34.5
once more information
19:36.3
one good news is,
19:38.0
nung pinag-usapan
19:48.9
Hindi pwede purong
19:50.0
pag-usapan natin.
19:51.3
umasa sa Amerika.
19:54.2
Ang haba ng pila.
19:56.0
dyan sa mga Amerikano.
19:57.1
We have to really
19:57.8
expand our partnerships
19:58.8
and work with people.
20:00.6
non-nuclear submarines
20:07.7
nuclear submarine.
20:20.7
Yung mga diesel-powered,
20:22.5
electric diesel-powered.
20:24.1
Actually, nakita ko,
20:25.1
tatlong nag-offer
20:25.9
sa atin is Spain.
20:30.2
and facilities and all.
20:31.5
The port facilities.
20:33.0
France, of course,
20:36.6
submarine capability.
20:38.4
And I think actually
20:38.8
Korea could be a favorite
20:39.8
because they're already
20:44.7
even FF50s natin,
20:46.6
So, I think Korea
20:47.6
is also one country
20:48.3
we'll have to discuss
20:50.6
but their weapon systems
20:52.5
second world quality
20:53.8
pero third world price
20:54.9
if I can pull it that way.
20:56.4
And down the road,
20:57.0
eventually India.
20:57.8
We have to talk more
20:59.1
I want to also talk
21:00.2
because drones of Turkey
21:09.9
mga top of the line
21:12.4
Hindi ganong kamahal.
21:14.2
Hindi ganong kamahal.
21:14.7
Pero top of the line yan.
21:16.8
Yung mga brahmas nila.
21:19.3
Pero at the same time,
21:21.1
huwag tayong maniwala
21:26.3
tapatan ng China.
21:29.9
this was never about
21:32.0
I'm going to push back
21:32.7
against you, Ronald.
21:33.5
I think that's a big
21:34.9
that this is about
21:36.4
This is about having
21:37.1
credible defense,
21:39.5
This is about deterrence.
21:41.7
Lee Kuan Yew called
21:44.7
big like other big fishes
21:46.0
kasi you're just Singapore.
21:47.9
Ang sinasabi ko lang,
21:48.8
ang sinasabi ko ng Big R,
21:50.6
kailangan ayusin natin
21:51.7
yung ating relasyon
21:53.6
with our neighbors.
21:58.6
Dahil hindi tayo,
22:00.2
we cannot scale up
22:01.2
in a hundred years
22:02.1
para tapatan yung isang
22:03.3
superpower like China.
22:05.0
Kasi dapat bahagi
22:06.0
ng ating defense strategy,
22:07.9
is not only to create
22:26.1
Ang daldal natin,
22:27.6
I thought itong episode
22:28.9
di ka magdaldal masyado
22:30.1
kasi masyadong defense.
22:38.8
yung security company natin.
22:44.5
Salamat, Sir Ronald Llamas.
22:46.6
We'll have one final
22:48.1
Pag-usapan natin ng konti
22:49.1
si Senator Trillianes
22:50.5
because later this week,
22:51.5
I'm hoping to interview him
22:53.8
his points of view.
22:55.8
Marcos, et cetera.
22:57.2
But I want to have
22:58.0
some general discussion,
22:59.6
Senator Trillianes,
23:01.4
but interesting figures
23:03.0
who are navigating
23:04.7
our very realigned
23:08.2
Thank you very much,
23:08.8
Secretary Llamas.
