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00:00.4
One second guys, sa top ko lang ito.
00:16.2
Manyanita yan, manyanita.
00:30.0
May na-internet yata dito ah.
00:36.9
Sige lang guys, siniset up ko lang live ah.
00:40.3
May na yata internet ko dito.
00:44.4
Maraming bang naka-on dyan na internet.
00:48.2
May mag-start ah.
01:00.0
Ang dali lang guys ah, one second.
01:07.0
Set up ko lang ito ah.
01:08.9
Hindi ko mag-aana itong internet ko dito, mabagal talaga.
01:15.5
May na talaga itong internet ah.
01:18.8
Try ko dito, i-connect.
01:30.0
Bakit kayang hinak?
02:00.0
Naliting niyo ba ako guys?
02:06.2
Medyo may na-internet natin ah, sorry.
02:30.0
Okay, salamat ah.
02:31.3
Salamat guys, sorry.
02:32.7
Kasi nagdi-disconnect, disconnect din dyan eh.
02:36.3
Hindi ko alam ba't nag-aagyan siya.
03:00.0
Anong nangyari dito?
03:10.8
O kung ayaw dito, diretso na tayo guys ah.
03:15.8
Medyo naging open yata.
03:19.0
Sana maulit-ulit.
03:30.0
Tita, bakit mahihina yung internet dito?
03:45.9
Hindi yung makakuha dyan.
03:47.8
Mahihina siya eh.
03:51.2
Kung tumilipat ka.
03:53.6
Ito yung magandang location eh.
04:04.4
Ano yung sa location ba yan?
04:08.4
Galaw lang ako konti, baka mas maganda internet natin.
04:13.5
Ang talaga mga third-world style.
04:30.0
Mga maganda ka, internet dito.
04:51.1
So if this one works?
05:00.0
so baka may problema dito
05:26.2
parang may problema to
05:37.6
hanggang kayo dyan
05:39.5
walang problema po ate
05:40.6
relax lang kayo dyan
05:46.8
na conscious tuloy yung mga
05:51.1
kasama natin dito
06:17.1
kamusta kayo dyan mga kameta
06:19.8
sorry hindi ako naka
06:23.4
nandun po tayo sa kubo
06:25.6
nandun po tayo sa
06:29.9
hindi ko nang alam
06:32.1
umakyat tayo ng pulag
06:42.5
hirap na hirap na ako
06:43.6
mag-upload lang ng konti
06:44.8
hirap na hirap na ako
06:45.6
so yung mga na-upload dyan
06:47.1
nakaschedule po yan
06:49.1
just before I arrive
06:51.2
kasi usually guys
06:52.1
ang ginagawa natin
06:52.9
pagka tingin natin na
06:57.4
or irregularities
06:59.2
ang ginagawa ko is
07:03.7
I hope na enjoy nyo guys
07:05.0
yung interview natin
07:06.4
comprehensive interview natin
07:09.5
thorough comprehensive
07:12.0
hindi ko mansion nga
07:13.7
baka mamaya sabihin niya
07:18.8
sa tita ko po yan
07:20.8
Ilocano kong tita
07:26.6
haters na naman natin
07:30.0
panibasa yung mga
07:40.2
ngayon wala na yung
07:42.9
nawala na kayo ng
07:50.3
tapos nagsisave kami
07:51.4
di kami naglibre lang
07:52.7
yung mga may kilala sa akin
07:55.3
wala tayong barkada
07:57.0
wala tayong bisyo
08:01.0
Senator Trillanes
08:08.4
pag iba na yung presidente
08:12.2
of course we discussed
08:13.2
a whole range of issues
08:14.4
but I'll tell you what
08:16.2
one of the things
08:16.8
I really appreciated
08:18.4
dun sa interview natin
08:19.6
with Senator Trillanes
08:22.0
no-nonsense attitude
08:23.9
at yung kanyang style
08:25.7
na talagang sasabihin niya
08:26.9
yung kailangan sabihin
08:27.8
at yung kanyang style
08:28.1
and when it comes to
08:28.7
Senator Trillanes
08:30.8
let me make this clear
08:35.9
at the highest echelons of power
08:37.3
especially sa military
08:39.1
especially mag-interview tayo
08:40.7
with Senator Trillanes
08:41.6
parang wala naman tayo
08:42.5
masyadong disagreements
08:44.5
discussion natin tuloy-tuloy
08:46.3
and just to be clear guys
08:49.8
haters natin dyan
08:51.7
kung nagahanap kayo
08:53.1
ng interview lang
08:55.0
yung isa naka tayo dyan
08:56.3
tapos may naka-reddition
08:58.7
tapos nag-research lang siya
08:59.9
dun sa guest niya
09:00.7
tapos tanong-tanong lang siya
09:02.1
dun sa guest niya
09:02.9
you are in the wrong place
09:04.3
you are in the wrong place
09:05.6
whether napanood nyo
09:07.0
yung sarili kong television show
09:08.6
whether napanood nyo
09:09.9
yung mga ibang podcast natin
09:11.5
conversational guys
09:12.9
conversational guys
09:17.6
it's a talk between
09:20.2
strong political opinions
09:22.6
ngayon kung hindi nina-appreciate yan
09:25.6
you are in the wrong place
09:28.1
last time we check
09:28.7
you know the most
09:30.8
the sharpest minds
09:31.8
there in the world
09:38.2
ayaw natin mag-yabang
09:39.1
yung mga na-interview natin
09:43.7
we're trying to do here
09:44.9
itong long-form discussion
09:47.0
lahat ng mga bagay
09:52.7
prospective analysis
09:54.5
retrospective analysis
09:56.0
yun po yung ginagawa natin
09:57.3
na-appreciate nyo
09:58.4
yung conversation natin
10:01.2
fireside conversation
10:03.0
dapat ginagawa kong
10:05.1
fireside conversation natin
10:07.0
with Senator Trillianes
10:08.5
so we talked a lot
10:13.9
Tigong would have been
10:18.2
yun ang sabi niya
10:19.3
hindi ako nagsabi niyan
10:23.0
dahil para maging
10:25.8
taga Solid North kami
10:38.2
na nag-martial law
10:40.0
pinalano niya yan
10:41.1
pinalano niya yan
10:42.1
hindi yan out of nowhere lang
10:43.3
so one of the first thing
10:44.6
we discussed with
10:45.2
Senator Trillianes was
10:49.0
ng civil-military relations
10:51.7
and this is where
10:53.1
I'm glad that I had
10:54.2
that conversation
10:54.9
with Senator Trillianes
10:55.8
because ang na-emphasize
10:58.9
or more human rights
11:01.9
in positions of power
11:06.7
National Security Advisor
11:09.0
and we also discussed
11:10.9
former Secretary of Defense
11:12.7
I think in charge
11:14.1
sa Subic Authority
11:15.1
si Secretary Lorenzana
11:18.2
these two gentlemen
11:19.3
among many others
11:20.5
andun din si Galvez
11:24.1
very important contribution
11:26.5
si Digong ay hindi
11:27.6
mag-totally martial law
11:29.0
all across the country
11:29.9
si Digong ay hindi
11:31.4
mag-totally dictatorship
11:32.7
si Digong ay hindi
11:35.6
ilang beses sinabi ni
11:37.0
ilang beses sinabi ni
11:41.8
gusto niya ng military
11:44.2
hindi nangyari yan
11:45.3
and one of the biggest reason
11:48.0
from the military
11:49.9
from the military
11:50.5
and na-confirm po natin
11:51.8
dun sa conversation natin
11:53.0
with Senator Trillianes
11:54.7
who comes from the military
11:55.9
and he understands
11:56.9
the mindset of the military
11:57.6
and he talks to the military
12:00.0
of course ako naman
12:01.1
hindi ko naman tinatago yan
12:02.5
dahil sa mga trabaho natin
12:03.6
sa West Philippines
12:05.2
at foreign defense policy
12:06.7
I've been constantly in touch
12:07.9
with people from the
12:09.1
office of the Philippines
12:10.0
people from the military
12:10.9
security establishment
12:11.8
dahil yan of course
12:12.8
para sa ating bayan
12:13.7
interest ng ating bayan
12:14.7
kaya kahit nung panahon
12:16.3
kahit may disagreements ako
12:17.5
panahon ni Digong
12:18.3
na may disagreements ako
12:20.8
even if may disagreements ako
12:22.0
I'm always happy to help
12:23.2
in terms of West Philippines
12:26.0
para yung ating karagatan
12:27.6
yung ating sovereignty
12:30.6
interest ng ating bayan
12:32.0
magprotektaan natin
12:34.0
I like that conversation
12:35.6
civil-military relations
12:37.1
how important was the role of AFP
12:42.6
in preventing Duterte
12:43.6
from creating a dictatorship
12:45.3
na-emphasize ko rin
12:47.9
because napakalapit
12:49.6
ng US sa ating military
12:52.0
yung sinasabi ni Trillianes
12:53.8
na hindi naging niktador
12:55.4
I think that was also partly
12:56.6
because my calculations
12:58.3
na baka kung gusto niyang galaway
13:00.7
magkakaroon niyang reaction
13:02.3
I'm not saying that's gonna happen
13:03.6
but considering how paranoid
13:06.2
naalala mo yung sinasabi na
13:08.4
China will protect me
13:10.3
tas lahat ng mga conspiracy theory
13:12.1
so I think that was a factor
13:15.8
or lack of courage
13:17.1
the more important thing here was
13:19.1
lack of calculation
13:21.3
lack of calibration
13:23.1
kasi dapat suabi ka eh
13:24.5
hindi pwede na basa-basa
13:26.0
gumawa ka ng dictatorship
13:27.6
you cannot change the constitution
13:28.9
or regime just like that
13:30.5
just tignan niyo ngayon
13:32.8
sa People's Initiative
13:35.3
garapalan na nangyari
13:36.8
kaya grabe yung backlash
13:39.0
kaya sabi nga ni Joey Salceda
13:41.0
nasa cryogenics na daw yung PI ngayon
13:43.6
nilagay na lang nila on ICE
13:46.5
tignan natin kung mabalik din na mamaya
13:48.0
now the other interesting thing we talked
13:50.5
papunta tayo kay Lenny
13:51.6
connected lahat yan
13:52.6
if you just pay enough attention
13:54.5
and connecting everything
13:55.7
no notes, nothing
13:56.7
but everything is connected
13:57.4
kasi iniisip natin na mabuti yan
13:59.2
malalim yung mga baga na yan
14:00.4
at dahil nagsusulat po tayo
14:02.3
I don't know dun sa mga ibang vloggers
14:05.1
yung mga journalist
14:06.1
ako kasi nagsusulat ako
14:07.5
at hindi lang ako nagsusulat ng mga
14:09.8
yung mga opinion-opinion lang
14:11.0
nagsusulat po tayo ng academic works
14:14.4
so we are trained
14:15.7
to think systematically about things
14:19.1
to be parsimonious
14:20.8
we are trained to look at the data
14:22.1
look at the evidence
14:22.9
we are trained to talk to people
14:24.8
who know a thing or two about
14:26.1
facts here and there
14:27.4
and salamat naman sa Diyos
14:28.4
hindi tayo nagkaroon ng problem
14:29.6
of access to people
14:31.8
and decision-making positions
14:33.0
throughout the years
14:33.7
so nagpapasalamat naman tayo dyan
14:35.4
so it's not just armchair analysis
14:37.7
dun sa mga engot na nagsabi
14:41.9
armchair lang yan
14:43.1
book-book lang yan
14:44.2
mas marami akong na-meet na presidente
14:46.2
at prime minister
14:47.9
sa inyong lahat combined
14:49.2
okay, lahat ng mga vloggers
14:50.3
yung mga haters natin
14:52.0
baka nga kulang pa yan eh
14:53.7
so hindi yan base sa mga ano lang
14:57.4
this is based on direct conversation
14:59.1
with people in position of powers
15:00.7
especially people in position of power
15:02.9
what people like me
15:03.8
bring to the table
15:04.6
I mean, sino naman ako
15:05.9
I mean, professor lang naman
15:07.1
sa tabi-tabi lang
15:08.6
tuturo lang naman tayo sa UP
15:10.5
no, but going back to this guys
15:13.4
that was one thing I appreciated
15:15.2
dun sa conversation natin
15:16.2
with Senator Trillianis
15:18.0
the other thing I appreciated
15:18.9
also dun sa conversation natin
15:20.3
with Senator Trillianis
15:21.2
was the discussion of West Philippine Sea
15:22.6
at yung pangailangan natin
15:24.6
in terms of developing our capacity
15:27.4
yung sinabi ni Senator Trillianis
15:29.2
similar kay Ronald Tiamas
15:30.5
dapat realistic tayo
15:31.6
dapat calibrated tayo
15:32.9
but at the same time
15:34.2
we have to embrace the reality
15:36.2
na hindi tayo pwede complacent
15:38.3
hindi tayo pwede umasa lang sa Amerika
15:40.2
at hindi tayo pwede umasa lang sa mga
15:42.5
bulok na mga warships
15:44.4
or mga fighter jets
15:47.4
and thanks to Lorenzana
15:49.1
and the next administration
15:50.1
medyo nagkaroon tayo na medyo matitinong
15:52.9
mga warships na binisita natin
15:54.7
of course nakita yung video
15:55.6
na bumisita ako sa mga
15:56.7
modern frigates natin
16:00.5
and we're hoping to also get
16:01.9
more advanced armaments
16:04.0
nakita nyo sa discussion natin
16:06.4
with Senator Trillianis
16:07.3
we're also looking at getting submarines
16:11.1
so medyo big deal yan
16:13.2
so I hope we make the right decision
16:14.8
and we talk to the right people
16:16.8
and get it from there
16:17.8
the other thing we wanna
16:19.0
I think I really appreciate
16:21.4
dun sa discussion natin
16:22.4
with Senator Trillianis
16:23.1
aside the fact na parang chill lang kami
16:27.5
gagawa rin kami ng
16:30.8
try natin put together
16:33.1
ito si Ronald Diama
16:36.6
I'm always into collaboration
16:40.0
yung mga nagme-message na
16:42.6
wala pa kayong collaboration
16:43.6
with person X and Y and Z
16:46.2
I've reached out to all of the people
16:47.5
that I think sensible and all
16:49.0
now kung ayaw nila makipag-collaborate
16:50.7
bahala sila sa buhay nila
16:53.8
I'm just focused on what I'm doing
16:55.6
I'm not competing with
16:56.9
I'm just competing with myself
16:58.7
at kato lang sinasabi natin
17:00.0
we're trying to be the best
17:01.8
political podcast
17:02.8
hindi lang sa Pilipinas
17:05.5
God willing sa buong Asia
17:07.2
and we have been doing
17:09.0
with very limited resources
17:10.6
so hopefully over time
17:12.1
we can push the envelope
17:13.1
again this is a podcast
17:14.1
it's not just an interview
17:15.2
it's a conversation
17:17.7
having said all of that
17:19.4
yan papunta na tayo
17:22.2
pwede yung blue phone ko
17:29.1
itong discussion na to
17:31.1
tapag-usapan na natin
17:34.5
one of the things
17:36.5
I appreciated also
17:38.4
conversation natin
17:40.2
with Senator Trillianes
17:41.3
I think parts of that
17:42.4
it has been published
17:43.2
or is about to be published
17:44.3
thank you so much ate
17:48.1
gawin ng opposition
17:52.0
how should I put it
17:56.3
I'm not being presumptuous
17:59.0
pero ang basa ko is
18:00.3
ang sinasabing Trillianes
18:02.0
is that the Dutertes
18:03.0
are such a big threat
18:04.1
to the constitutional order
18:06.2
in the Philippines
18:07.0
and also to the West Philippines
18:08.7
may statement ba si ate
18:09.8
kay West Philippines eh
18:10.8
or no comment na naman siya
18:13.7
wala pang comment
18:14.5
yung mga Dutertes
18:15.3
sa West Philippines
18:16.3
siguro ang argument
18:18.6
such a big threat
18:20.2
sa constitutional order
18:21.2
na baka mas maganda
18:23.8
never Marcos type
18:27.5
respect their opinion
18:28.4
and their constraints
18:30.1
kahit nandito tayo
18:32.0
never natin nakakalimutan
18:34.0
yung mga nangyari
18:35.6
ng pano ng dictatorship
18:36.6
but going back to this
18:44.0
and eye on the ball
18:58.3
yung executive branch
19:02.0
like former President Arroyo
19:03.9
to become Speaker
19:04.8
of the House again
19:06.1
do I agree with that scenario?
19:08.1
I'm 50-50 on that
19:10.4
a little bit skeptical ako dyan
19:13.1
si Sen. Trillianes
19:14.1
na do not underestimate
19:15.1
the power of Dutertes
19:16.7
for Digong himself
19:18.7
to run for President
19:19.6
and become the Senate President
19:21.1
almost ipso facto
19:27.7
I have my own sources
19:29.6
survey agencies ito
19:31.4
may mga unpublished surveys na po
19:33.8
over the last two quarters
19:35.2
si Sen. Rafi Tulfo na po
19:37.7
ang leading candidate
19:39.0
to be the President
19:41.5
so na-confirm na po natin
19:43.0
na hindi na si Sara Duterte
19:44.9
ang leading candidate
19:45.9
to be the President
19:49.1
Sara still has around
19:50.6
25-30% behind her
19:56.0
Rafi Tulfo is concerned
19:58.2
kung tatakbo talaga siya
19:59.3
pwede siya magbisipresidente
20:00.6
pwede siya umatras
20:02.9
and even if I had
20:04.1
personal information
20:05.6
all I can say is that
20:07.4
between now and 2028
20:09.7
and this is where I think
20:11.5
made a very good intervention
20:15.5
ang intervention niya is
20:18.3
should be prepared
20:20.6
and push for the running
20:21.6
of some of the candidates
20:23.7
diniscuss natin sa mga
20:25.8
if you look at the opposition
20:29.3
has a good chance
20:29.9
to make it to the Senate
20:31.2
Lenny has a good chance
20:32.7
to make it to the Senate
20:35.7
has a good chance
20:36.4
to make it to the Senate
20:38.2
so there's some chance
20:39.5
and the number of other people
20:45.5
na to opposition now
20:49.3
I don't know about
20:50.1
plan of Sen. Trillianes
20:51.4
if he wants to run
20:52.2
for local government
20:53.1
or national government
20:54.4
hindi ko for sure yan
20:55.3
but Sen. Trillianes
20:56.8
himself could consider it
21:00.6
hindi ako nag-i-endorse
21:01.6
I'm just talking about
21:02.9
and I'm saying na
21:05.8
parehon ni Trillianes
21:08.3
unpublished surveys
21:10.6
hindi na number one
21:12.0
in fact may sinabing
21:13.3
interesting din si
21:18.3
unpublished survey
21:19.1
na kinomission nila
21:20.1
kasi yung pinapublish
21:21.7
nila ito yung mga
21:22.4
for public purposes
21:25.3
mahal lang gumawa
21:28.3
i-mambo-jambo mo yung surveys
21:29.8
wala naman niniwala sa'yo
21:32.4
now going back to this
21:34.0
may isang unpublished survey daw
21:36.2
sabi ni Trillianes
21:41.5
a warrant of arrest
21:48.5
majority of Filipinos
21:53.8
to conduct investigation
21:56.7
wanted BBM administration
21:58.1
to cooperate with them
21:59.2
but more importantly
22:02.8
dun sa kanilang survey
22:06.1
were fully against
22:07.3
a warrant of arrest
22:08.6
majority of Filipinos
22:10.3
are either okay about it
22:11.6
or are just neutral about it
22:14.7
if ever mangyari yan
22:15.7
so they're not strongly against
22:17.5
ICC going all the way
22:18.8
so these are big developments
22:20.3
that are happening
22:23.1
all of those things
22:23.7
one of the things
22:24.2
that I appreciate
22:24.8
now is the discussion
22:26.4
Senator Trillianes
22:32.1
should be the standard
22:33.7
bearer for the opposition
22:34.7
and ngayon pa lang
22:35.6
they have to prepare
22:36.5
for Riza Antiveros
22:38.0
as a presidential candidate
22:41.7
Riza vice president
22:43.7
that maybe people
22:44.6
are comfortable with
22:47.4
ang basa ko ay Rafi Tulfo
22:49.0
is that he has appeal
22:50.4
across the political spectrum
22:52.2
pero maraming sa opposition
22:57.6
din ayaw bigla sa kanya
23:01.5
competition na siya
23:03.4
actually hindi na lang siya
23:05.5
nilamangan na nga eh
23:11.3
nag-arise na siya
23:13.1
as much as I appreciated
23:16.2
that in your prevention
23:17.0
by Senator Trillianes
23:26.7
and nakita natin latest
23:30.3
against charter change
23:32.5
is very much there
23:33.4
but I'm not seeing
23:34.8
the rest of the opposition
23:36.5
and progressive movement
23:39.1
I think Riza has a lot of potential
23:40.7
but having said that
23:44.4
that Riza Antiveros
23:46.1
is not the only opposition leader
23:48.2
I'm not even sure
23:49.9
the most popular opposition leader
23:52.9
paasit dito sa survey
24:00.7
this is a consultancy group
24:04.6
and colleague of mine
24:05.6
mga political scientists
24:09.8
mga legit na mga tao to guys
24:11.3
and I saw their surveys
24:14.4
so shoutout kay Robin
24:15.9
shoutout kay Cleve
24:18.0
now dito sa WR Numero
24:33.0
or strongly agree
24:34.2
that former vice president
24:36.6
could have performed better
24:37.9
than the current president
24:39.5
in solving the problems
24:41.3
facing the country right now
24:43.0
now this is an interesting thing
24:45.6
when I posted this
24:47.6
I got all sorts of extreme
25:04.5
the one that got away
25:05.5
huwag natin balikan
25:12.5
huwag na natin pansinin
25:15.5
it's not even relevant
25:16.5
to talk about this issue
25:19.5
it's actually very relevant
25:20.5
I think it's very very
25:25.6
almost 40% support
25:32.6
when you look at the number of factors
25:36.6
leni got just over
25:39.6
I think around 25%
25:47.6
for someone who got
25:48.6
just over a quarter of votes
25:52.6
36% of Filipinos saying
25:54.6
sana siya nalang presidente
25:57.6
that's actually a big job
25:58.6
so from 20 plus percent
26:00.6
who voted for her
26:01.6
in 2022 elections
26:03.6
based on official numbers
26:05.6
of course alam ko maraming sa inyo
26:08.6
SD card numbers yan
26:10.6
I'm not gonna go down that road
26:12.6
based on official numbers
26:13.6
she just got over 20% of votes
26:16.6
what we're seeing right now
26:18.6
almost 4 out of 10
26:20.6
or 36% are saying
26:21.6
she would have been a better president than BBM
26:24.6
that's very interesting
26:26.6
so she has significant amount of increase
26:31.6
which brings me to the second factor
26:33.6
this is happening
26:36.6
even if Riza is not
26:39.6
is not active politically
26:42.6
when was the last time that leni was actively
26:46.6
making a statement
26:47.6
or a policy position
26:53.6
over the past year or so
26:57.6
leni actually has been more honest
26:59.6
I mean surprise surprise
27:01.6
magre-retire na siya sa politics
27:03.6
oh magiging private citizen na ako
27:07.6
di naman lang siya
27:08.6
nag-attend doon sa first zone
27:10.6
na supposedly alay nila
27:11.6
umuwi lang siya sa Davao
27:14.6
nasaan niya yung pagka private citizen niya
27:16.6
walang ginawa ko ni Macaren
27:18.6
at ngayon kinikwestion directly
27:19.6
ang mandato ng ating presidente
27:20.6
at directly ang titreatan ng secession
27:23.6
if you look at leni
27:24.6
she actually retired
27:27.6
not from public service
27:29.6
not from public service
27:31.6
but from politics
27:33.6
because ang ginagawa ni
27:39.6
almost mag to 2 years na diba
27:47.6
even a little bit of an academic stint
27:48.6
even a little bit of an academic stint
27:49.6
yung kanyang talks
27:50.6
all around the world
27:51.6
yung kanyang fellowship
27:52.6
leadership fellowship
27:55.6
so if you look at it
27:58.6
effectively retired from politics
27:59.6
over the past 2 years or so
28:01.6
ate pwede mamaya na kayo mag-ugas
28:05.6
malapit ako sa kitchen
28:06.6
patapos na ako ate
28:15.6
ganon ko kayo kamatay
28:18.6
ganon ko kayo kamahal lang
28:20.6
siniset up ko tong inter
28:25.6
malapit tayo sa kitchen eh
28:29.6
huwag naman kasi kayo
28:30.6
supportive naman kayo eh
28:32.6
punta na ako sa garden
28:36.6
she has effectively
28:37.6
retired from the political scene
28:39.6
and transitioned into
28:42.6
civil society leader
28:45.6
or public thinker
28:50.6
essentially an inspirational leader
28:54.6
close to 4 out of 10
28:55.6
Filipinos are saying
28:56.6
sana siya na lang
28:58.6
and this brings you to
29:00.6
and the number 3 factor
29:01.6
is also interesting
29:02.6
the number 3 factor
29:04.6
it's not like nawala
29:05.6
yung mga disinformation
29:06.6
yung mga kabastusan
29:07.6
yung mga fake news
29:08.6
all of those things
29:09.6
that they were throwing at her
29:12.6
that they were throwing at her
29:20.6
mula nung tumakbo
29:23.6
kay BBM for vice president
29:25.6
tumakbo siya laban
29:27.6
bilang presidente
29:30.6
everything was thrown at her
29:34.6
they were throwing mud at her
29:35.6
they were throwing
29:36.6
all sort of disinformation
29:38.6
against her loved ones
29:39.6
against her family
29:42.6
despite all of that
29:44.6
tuloy tuloy pa rin
29:45.6
kung punta kayo sa mga DDS
29:46.6
sabihin lang tayo
29:47.6
oo si Lenny ganyan
29:48.6
oo si Lenny ganyan
29:49.6
oo si Lenny ganyan
29:50.6
of course I have my stance on
29:52.6
more aggressive pushback
29:53.6
against these fake news people
29:54.6
dapat kinasuhan ng libel
29:55.6
yung mga ibang walang yang dyan
29:56.6
dapat na cyber libel
29:57.6
yung mga walang yang yan
29:59.6
I don't believe in
30:00.6
criminalization of libel
30:03.6
but mahabang usapan yan
30:04.6
we can have a discussion
30:05.6
separately later on
30:08.6
but speaking about this mga kamenta
30:12.6
third thing that is fascinating
30:14.6
despite all of this disinformation
30:15.6
that continues against
30:16.6
that continues against
30:19.6
former vice president
30:21.6
and all the propaganda for
30:23.6
whether yung kampo ni Tatay
30:25.6
or kampo ni Bagong Pilipinas
30:29.6
almost 4 out of 10 Filipinos
30:31.6
saying that Lenny Robredo
30:33.6
would have been a better president
30:42.6
one reason I'm not also very surprised
30:48.6
as far as Lenny Robredo is concerned
30:50.6
she's an economist by training
30:52.6
at kung tinignan niyong kanyang plataforma
30:54.6
nung election time
30:56.6
a lot of that was about economic management
30:58.6
or avoiding economic mismanagement
31:00.6
a lot of that was about
31:01.6
bringing economic growth
31:02.6
a lot of that was about
31:03.6
inclusive development
31:04.6
a lot of that was about
31:05.6
bringing high quality investments
31:06.6
a lot of that was about
31:08.6
ayisin natin ang problema sa agrikultura
31:10.6
a lot of that was about
31:11.6
food self-sufficiency
31:12.6
a lot of that was about
31:14.6
ating mga mainista
31:16.6
sa west philippine sea
31:17.6
and giving an economic angle
31:18.6
she's an economist by training
31:20.6
sa UP lang naman na graduated
31:24.6
yung mga sinasabi na
31:30.6
all of those jokes
31:31.6
that they made about it
31:35.6
nag graduate yan sa UP
31:36.6
siguro naman may alam siya sa buhay
31:38.6
hindi ko sinabi na
31:39.6
porkit graduate ka ng UP
31:40.6
ka pinakamagaling
31:41.6
para sana naman diba
31:42.6
medyo respeto lang
31:43.6
lalo kung wala ka naman
31:44.6
baka may ma-hurt na naman dyan
31:49.6
dami nagalit sa akin nung time
31:52.6
o yung mga nag madam
32:01.6
diba alala nyo yan
32:02.6
sinong ano ngayon
32:04.6
kumpara natin yung mga
32:06.6
yung mga speeches ni Lenny Kay
32:16.6
no kung titignan yan
32:17.6
I think a big reason why
32:19.6
a lot of people appreciate
32:20.6
Lenny Robredo now
32:21.6
even more than election time
32:23.6
because she just got more than
32:26.6
sana siya naging president
32:28.6
is because of the economics background
32:30.6
and it's because of the economics background
32:32.6
precisely because
32:34.6
pinakamalaking issue kay BBM right now
32:38.6
yung nakaraan nila
32:39.6
yung dictatorship
32:41.6
from a moral standpoint
32:42.6
you know where I stand right now
32:43.6
I'm talking about
32:44.6
how voters think about it
32:47.6
it's yung problema sa ekonomiya
32:49.6
kahit umakyat yung
32:53.6
over the past years or so
32:55.6
kahit pinakamabilis na
32:58.6
pagdating sa economic growth
33:01.6
karamihan sa ating mga kababayan
33:06.6
lalo kung nasa malalaking syudad ka
33:08.6
eh at least dito sa Baguio
33:09.6
medyo mas okay pa ng konti
33:10.6
pero grabe sa Manila
33:12.6
sabi nga ng isang kaibigan ko sa Japan
33:14.6
ang mahal ng pagkain sa Manila
33:16.6
ang mahal mag-restaurant sa Manila
33:18.6
parang mas mahal pa mag-restaurant
33:19.6
mag-grocery sa Manila
33:20.6
kaysa yung mga sobrang
33:21.6
mga mayayaman na bansa
33:24.6
actually medyo totoo naman talaga yun
33:26.6
nung nasa Espanya ako last year
33:28.6
mas konting ginastos ko sa
33:30.6
ginastos ko sa pagkain ko
33:32.6
kaysa nandun ako sa Manila
33:33.6
I mean obviously because wala akong time
33:35.6
na magluto and all of that
33:40.6
you have to cook first
33:42.6
I think one big reason why
33:44.6
one big reason why
33:46.6
there's a lot of appreciation for Lenny right now
33:48.6
is precisely because of yung
33:50.6
kanyang pedigree in economics
33:52.6
and precisely because
33:53.6
isa sa mga biggest frustration ng tao ngayon
33:55.6
sa kasalukuyan na administration
33:57.6
is on the economic front
33:59.6
even if the economy is going fast
34:00.6
but the inflation has been high
34:02.6
inclusive development is not happening
34:04.6
hindi ko alam anong nangyari dun sa
34:06.6
agricultural development
34:09.6
department of aquaculture nalang
34:13.6
I'm just kidding around
34:14.6
you know what I'm saying
34:15.6
now obviously alam ko
34:16.6
yung mga kakamping dyan
34:20.6
mahal nila si Lenny
34:21.6
dahil si Lenny ay hindi corrupt
34:22.6
si Lenny ay anti-corruption
34:23.6
si Lenny ay mabayad
34:24.6
ganyan ganyan ganyan
34:25.6
yes you can say that
34:27.6
but I think honestly
34:28.6
it's more about the economics part
34:30.6
it's about frustration
34:32.6
which is fascinating
34:37.6
hindi ko pa pinag-usapan yung
34:38.6
hidwa ng mga Dutertes and Marcuses
34:40.6
but this is fascinating
34:42.6
if you look at it
34:43.6
what is happening to BBM right now
34:45.6
is a kind of a compressed accelerated version
34:48.6
of what was happening to
34:51.6
the liberal party
34:55.6
why nanalo ang mga Marcuses
34:57.6
at bumalik sila sa pwesto
34:58.6
is because frustrated ang mga tao
35:00.6
dun sa kakulangan ng mga dilaw
35:02.6
sa mga reformista na administration
35:05.6
the Aquino administration
35:07.6
so ang nangyari dyan is
35:08.6
when frustrated ang mga dilao
35:11.6
dun sa performance
35:12.6
sa mga reformist administration
35:13.6
in terms of not bringing inclusive development
35:15.6
ewan ko dyan sa mga dilawan na economists
35:17.6
but even during Pinoy
35:20.6
paano ni Pinoy yan
35:22.6
70 richest families in the Philippines
35:24.6
took home 76% of newly created growth
35:26.6
this is in the World Bank
35:27.6
yung mga dilawan na economists
35:29.6
hindi nila sasabihin sa iyan
35:31.6
I don't think the situation improved dramatically
35:33.6
during those years
35:36.6
of course hindi pwede ayosin ni Aquino
35:38.6
yung situation na yan
35:39.6
one year, two years
35:40.6
but the reality is that there was no fundamental shift
35:43.6
in the nature of the Philippine economy
35:44.6
kaya even by 2015-16
35:46.6
marami sa ating mga kababayan
35:48.6
they were not feeling
35:49.6
the fruits of the growth of the Philippines
35:52.6
and tignan mo naman yung infrastructure development
35:54.6
public infrastructure development
35:55.6
ang dami mga lagar
35:57.6
I can go on and on and on
35:58.6
in terms of manufacturing
35:59.6
there was no significant improvement in manufacturing
36:02.6
just as Vietnam was building the foundation
36:04.6
to produce the Panasonic and Samsung
36:07.6
and EV cars and all
36:08.6
those things were not being done
36:10.6
I think Pinoy was a very good president
36:12.6
in terms of cleaning things up
36:13.6
in terms of macro prudential policy
36:15.6
but in terms of bringing about
36:16.6
transformational economic approach
36:19.6
I just don't think nandun tayo 100%
36:22.6
because of frustration with that
36:24.6
yung traffic nung panahon ni Pinoy
36:26.6
yung lack of infrastructure development
36:27.6
yung lack of inclusive development
36:29.6
biglang naging pogi yung mga Marcoses
36:33.6
yung panahon ni Marcos
36:34.6
number one tayo sa mundo
36:35.6
although that was not true anymore
36:38.6
we were barely number one in Southeast Asia
36:40.6
in the early 1960s
36:42.6
but by the 1970s 80s
36:43.6
napag iwanan tayo ng malayo
36:45.6
I have a ton of data
36:47.6
per capita yung guys
36:48.6
I can show you guys
36:50.6
nagawa na natin yan
36:53.6
manood ng mga kaengotan ng mga vloggers
36:58.6
so if you look at it
37:03.6
pagod talaga tayo
37:04.6
ang haba ng lakad natin
37:07.6
ginagawa namin one and a half hours eh
37:15.6
dahil sa prostration ng tao
37:17.6
biglang people started
37:18.6
romanticizing the past
37:20.6
started imagining a non-existent golden era
37:26.6
whatever you gonna call it
37:27.6
actually the best term for that is
37:30.6
it's a Portuguese term for
37:31.6
nostalgia for a non-existent golden era
37:37.6
I hope I'm pronouncing it correctly
37:40.6
parang it's like sodade ang pagkasulat
37:45.6
wala pang two years
37:48.6
reverse is happening right now
37:50.6
and actually the reverse is happening in two directions
37:58.6
so sa isang banda
37:59.6
yung mga BDS people
38:01.6
na akala nila si BBM ay magko-continue lang
38:05.6
genius policies ni Bara-Bara Tatay
38:07.6
yung mga pang barangay geopolitics niya
38:10.6
inis na inis sila sa kanya
38:11.6
so ngayon naging kunyari opposition na sila ngayon
38:14.6
biglang ngayon galit na sila sa
38:17.6
gusto nilang audit
38:19.6
anong sinasabing nyo tayo ng confidential fund
38:21.6
anong sinasabing nyo sa farmally
38:22.6
anong sinasabing nyo
38:25.6
but the interesting thing right now is
38:28.6
even yung mga hindi bumoto kay Lenny
38:30.6
kasi officially only more than 20% voted for around
38:34.6
but now close to 4 out of 10 won'ter
38:36.6
I think even yung iba
38:38.6
na narealize sila
38:40.6
etong bagong Pilipinas
38:43.6
etong pangako ng golden era
38:47.6
etong pangako na lahat ay maging maganda
38:54.6
tignan naman guys
38:57.6
tignan naman guys
38:58.6
ano nangyayari ngayon
38:59.6
so hindi lang galit na galit yung mga DDS dyan
39:02.6
dahil hindi nila nalang ako kalimutan dyan
39:04.6
hindi lang ako kuha yung gusto nila
39:07.6
but the thing here is that
39:10.6
if you look at it
39:11.6
there's also right
39:12.6
there's also a lot of frustration by people
39:15.6
who didn't vote for Lenny
39:17.6
and now they're suddenly realizing that
39:19.6
wait what's going on
39:20.6
yes Sebastian thank you na wikipedia mo
39:24.6
it's written sodade but it's like sojage
39:27.6
I think that's the proper pronunciation
39:29.6
so it's an emotional state of melancholic
39:34.6
wag muna kayo mag comment
39:36.6
or profoundly nostalgic longing for beloved yet absent something or someone
39:40.6
it is often associated with a repressed understanding that one might never encounter the object of longing
39:46.6
just to simplify it
39:47.6
wag naman sana wikipedia
39:49.6
longing for something that didn't exist there
39:52.6
sabi ko nga parang ano yan
39:53.6
parang mga mag-jowa
39:55.6
kunyari nagkaroon ka ng jowa na walang kwenta
39:59.6
tapos nag iwalay kayo
40:00.6
tapos nag jowa ka ulit
40:03.6
etong jowa mo mamabit
40:06.6
so biglang niromanticize mo yung basagulera mong jowa dati
40:10.6
dahil basagulera siya
40:13.6
medyo ano siya pero maginoo
40:16.6
alam mo yung mga ganoon diba
40:18.6
makikita mo nangyari yan sa buhay ng mga tao
40:20.6
pag may frustration sila kunyari sa jowa nila ngayon
40:23.6
biglang niromanticize nila yung jowa nila dati
40:25.6
parang ang ka-fun is
40:26.6
walang kwenta yung jowa nila dati
40:28.6
so actually that happens to human beings at the very personal level
40:32.6
that also happens to people at the political level
40:35.6
and just to be clear
40:36.6
before yung mga books about false nostalgia
40:38.6
matagal namin sinisulat yan
40:41.6
actually the technical term used in political science is
40:44.6
authoritarian nostalgia
40:46.6
we have been talking about this
40:48.6
the term false nostalgia is actually
40:51.6
medyo redundant siya kasi by nature nostalgia is false
40:55.6
it's called authoritarian nostalgia
40:58.6
political science yun yung term na ginagamit namin
41:00.6
so this is based on the experience of
41:02.6
many countries that transition to democracy
41:04.6
especially third wave democracies
41:11.6
manage to consolidate their democracy
41:13.6
because na-frustrate yung tao sa mga replacement nila
41:15.6
so I'll give you many examples
41:17.6
so many Eastern European countries
41:19.6
when they transition to democracy
41:21.6
even when tumulang Europe sa akin na
41:22.6
they were longing for the days of
41:24.6
stability and certainty
41:26.6
when the Soviet era was there
41:27.6
which is completely ridiculous
41:33.6
sismis sa akin nung iba
41:34.6
same lang daw yung PR team niya
41:37.6
mahala TikTok siya
41:39.6
son-in-law former dictator
41:41.6
the next thing you know
41:42.6
biglang si Praboso-Bianto
41:44.6
ayan ang gusto ng tao
41:46.6
almost 60% yata ang bumoto sa kanya
41:49.6
dahil suddenly siya yung mabait
41:51.6
he will bring discipline
41:55.6
ni-romanticize yung panahon ng father-in-law niya
42:00.6
and then there are also examples in countries that had
42:03.6
temporary transition to democracy
42:05.6
so Egypt for instance
42:06.6
when Hosni Mubarak was kicked out
42:08.6
during the Arab revolutions
42:09.6
within 2 or 3 years
42:10.6
everyone wanted Hosni Mubarak to come back
42:12.6
because what came after him
42:13.6
at least in their eyes
42:15.6
although I kinda agree with what happened
42:17.6
that after Hosni Mubarak
42:18.6
things were a total mess
42:19.6
and eventually they brought someone like Hosni Mubarak
42:25.6
this is called authoritarian nostalgia
42:27.6
so yung false nostalgia niya
42:29.6
actually it's redundant
42:31.6
ang dami nang nasulat about that issue
42:33.6
and we have been raising this issue
42:34.6
sinulat ko yan sa book ko sa
42:36.6
Rise of Duterte in 2017-2018
42:39.6
minention din natin yan sa Journal of Democracy
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mga other writings natin
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that disinformation is a factor
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but what you also have to understand is
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why are people open to disinformation?
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people are open to disinformation because
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when people are frustrated with their present
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they are more open to
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entertaining, romanticized
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if not totally falsified
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representation of the past
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it's a form of psychological coping mechanism
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at actually naintindihan ko bakit eh
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kasi of course bilang Pilipino
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gusto natin na isipin
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may panahon na tayo ay number one
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because that gives us the kind of emotional
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psychological support and strength
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to overcome a lot of our frustrations
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with what's happening with our country
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and its place in the world
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but yun nga yung problema ko eh
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yun nga yung problema ko guys eh
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you cannot just say it's disinformation
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you also have to understand
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where is this frustration coming from
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that makes people open to disinformation
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and this is not only about education
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because many very intelligent people
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with PhDs, engineering, nakaaral abroad
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they actually bumawto sa you know who
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including in Indonesia
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they voted for Prabowo, etc.
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what I'm saying here
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I'll say it for the nth time
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it's called authoritarian nostalgia
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it's a super gas gas term
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na ginamit namin forever
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in political science right?
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going back to this
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what's happening right now
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is bumabaliktad na ngayon
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this time it's interesting
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I think objectively would say
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last time I checked
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Lenny Robredo actually graduated
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hindi lang siya abogada
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actually nag graduate siya
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I think she understands economics pretty well
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I'm not sure how good of an economist she is
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but I think she understands economics pretty well
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and if you look at her platform
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and you look at her track record
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and you look at what she actually achieved
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with very limited resources
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nung paano na VP siya
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I'm not surprised
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that close to 4 out of 10 Filipinos
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now suddenly think
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ah Lenny would have been better
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yun ang bahas ako dyan
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now let me connect it again dun sa interview natin
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with Sen. Trillianes
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remember Sen. Trillianes said something like
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it's time to rally behind Riza Hondiveras
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by all indication
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Lenny herself passed down
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to Riza Hondiveras after the 2022 elections
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because Riza Hondiveras was the only opposition
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candidate to win a national post
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and in many ways people see her as a rightful successor
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but the reality is that Lenny is still very very popular
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when 4 out of 10 Filipinos are saying
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sana siya nalangin presidente
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and when officially only 20% or so voted for her
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then that tells you that she's still a force to reckon with
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so whatever the opposition is going to do
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whether they're going to rally behind Riza
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whether Lenny is going to come up back
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whether they're going to
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I don't know go behind Vico
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although si Vico siyadong bata pa yata hindi siya abot sa 40 sa 2028
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the reality is that Lenny is a force to reckon with
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and where opposition will go will also much depend on
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not only what Lenny does
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but also what Lenny's supporters are looking for
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I think that's a very important thing
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na-appreciate niyo yung sinasabi natin dito
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just to be absolutely clear about this
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ayusin natin yan ah
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just to recap about it
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so officially speaking just over 20% of the people
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voted for Lenny Robredo dun sa 2022 elections
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now based on some interesting surveys
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almost 4 out of 10 Filipinos are saying that
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sana siya na naging presidente
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or at least she would have done a better job
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had she been the president right now
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than the current administration
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now my reading of that is that a lot of that is about
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her pedigree as an economist
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because sa akin palagay ang biggest source of frustration with the current administration
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the lack of development in ways that people were expecting
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and also the fact that the Philippines is still not upgrading into kind of manufacturing
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high quality growth kind of economy
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that's just how I see it
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so that tells you that actually Lenny Robredo's economic pedigree
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is perhaps one of the reasons that she has that kind of traction
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but having said that
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if Riza Antivirus is the future
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then Lenny Robredo has to also rally behind her
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and that's something that perhaps we have to see more of that
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or Lenny Robredo and Riza have to work it more together
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so that they can consolidate kind of a third option
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because just as I said
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base sa mga surveys na unpublished na alam natin
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Rafi Tulfo right now is not only the biggest alternative to a Sara Duterte presidency
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or to the return of Duterte
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actually Rafi Tulfo is ahead of Sara Duterte
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in some of the surveys
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I've seen actually also published surveys although not very reputable
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that statistically tied na po si Tulfo at saka si Sara
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but the ones that I know from more legit sources
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ahead na siya for two quarters already
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are you guys happy?
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with having those two options?
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between Tulfo and Sara?
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well many would say
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well I'd rather have Tulfo than Sara
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or I also heard the opposite
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well at least si Sara ganyan ganyan
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abogado ganyan ganyan
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so there are two versions of that
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in a real democracy you want to have more options
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and you also want to have a progressive liberal option
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and as Sonny Trillanes said
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perhaps it's time for people to rally behind Riza Antivirus
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but that rallying effect
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will not fully take place
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because Lenny also puts her political capital behind Riza
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unless she has plans of going back to politics herself
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at the highest levels and running for the presidency
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because interesting if you look at the surveys
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number three pa rin si Lenny Rubredo
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as a potential candidate for 2028 elections
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anyway before ako magkakalat
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medyo nakikita na nag-blush na tayo kasi pagod na ako
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I hope you appreciate this intervention
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and yes to say it
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maraming kayo narinig
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hindi original mga yan
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matagal na namin pinag-usapan itong issue ng authoritarian nostalgia
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what is fascinating to me is that
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ginamit ng mga Marcoses ang authoritarian nostalgia
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to make people romanticize their legacy
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ayan nakabalik na sila ngayon
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and then nakita ng tao yung katotohanan
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hindi lang mga DDS pero ibang tao
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biglang sinasabi nila
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at least four out of them almost are saying
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aba sana binoto namin yung ekonomista
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or yung opposition candidate
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na actually nag-provide ng clear platform
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and a kind of evidence-based approach to solving the country's problems
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bahala kayo sa buhay niyo
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thank you very much for that
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and talk to you soon guys
