00:46.4
Assistant National Security Council Director Jonathan Malaya says that the Chinese Coast Guard dismantled these barriers themselves.
00:55.0
When ang nangyayaring dito,
00:56.5
is noong umalis na yung ating BIFAR vessels, no?
01:02.2
And tinanggal na rin nila.
01:05.4
So habang nandun yung ating BIFAR vessel, nandun yung barrier.
01:08.9
Pero immediately after,
01:11.0
nang pag-alis ng BIFAR,
01:12.2
ay tinanggal na rin nila, no?
01:13.5
Siguro natatakot na rin silang utunin.
01:15.8
O, o, di ba, naalala ko yung utunin.
01:20.6
Nagbili na nga si National Security Council
01:23.2
sa Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources
01:26.5
na kukuha daw, mag-collect ng evidence
01:29.1
to be able to prove kung talagang may cyanide phishing happening in the area.
01:34.0
Because then that's environmental damage.
01:36.0
Kasi it's one way that they've seen gumagamit ng cyanide
01:41.9
but it's another, also, to prove it.
01:44.9
Yeah, that's right. I mean, did you actually see the blast that detonated the cyanide?
01:50.2
Although, sabi nga naman si Gina, if you take a look at the coral reef in Baja Dimansino,
01:54.2
talagang destroyed. Siya damaged na.
01:56.5
At yun nga, wala pang evidence na talagang nakikita mo ba yung Vietnamese fishermen?
02:03.5
So, that they have the evidence.
02:04.5
Tsaka yung sinasabi, yung intentional, yun yung sinabi ng mga Pilipinong fishermen,
02:10.5
intentional na mas sira. Pero cyanide phishing, it's a, you know, an ancient,
02:13.5
oh my God, yun man ancient, pero old problem, old method of phishing.
02:19.5
So, is carbon shoal becoming a geopolitical flashpoint once again?
02:24.5
As always, when we need some hard answers, we call it carbon shoal.
02:25.5
As always, when we need some hard answers, we call it carbon shoal.
02:26.5
And our fellow One News host, Richard Hedaria, who's also a political analyst and senior lecturer
02:31.5
at the UP Asian Center. Ang hirap naman nun. That's a big, hard question to answer, no?
02:37.5
How are you, Richard?
02:39.5
I'm good. Sana meron din kayong vlogger influencer as one of my ads.
02:45.5
Lahat na lang. Sige, showbiz din.
02:48.5
We will add it next time. But, yeah, your thoughts on what's going on
02:55.5
at the Scarborough at Bajo de Masingo. Kaming, we were tackling two stories just now.
02:59.5
First, the potential, I underscored the word potential, potential cyanide phishing.
03:04.5
And then also, the dangerous maneuvers which happened several days ago,
03:10.5
supposedly by the Chinese Coast Guard, and also the floating barriers,
03:14.5
which as of tonight, as far as we know, has been taken down.
03:17.5
But still, again, these like small incidents, what do you make of it?
03:21.5
Yeah, I mean, unang-una, I think this is a good reminder that we're, you know,
03:24.5
it's a good reminder that we're facing multiple ticking time bombs there in the West Philippine Sea.
03:28.5
Of course, the Ayungin Shul, the second time our shore took a lot of our attention
03:32.5
over the past six months or so because of the multiple incidents,
03:35.5
the water canoning, the disruption of our resupply mission,
03:38.5
our hopes to fortify our position there without triggering any kind of conflict with China.
03:43.5
But, let's not forget, there's also the reed bank situation.
03:46.5
We still don't know what are we going to do about it. Are we going to develop the resources there?
03:49.5
And then, not to mention, Scarborough Shoal, no?
03:52.5
Which is the beginning, essentially, of, you know, of what we're going to do about it. And then, not to mention, Scarborough Shoal, no?
03:53.5
Which is the beginning, essentially, of, you know,
03:54.5
a new era in Philippine foreign policy.
03:56.5
I mean, after the incidents in Scarborough Shoal in 2012, the Philippines has not been the same
04:00.5
in terms of our foreign policy, in terms of domestic discussion,
04:02.5
in terms of awareness of what's happening in the West Philippine Sea.
04:04.5
Now, going back to this, of course, I defer to the officials to confirm whether, you know,
04:10.5
what's being reported is the case.
04:12.5
But, if ever it turns out true, I mean, it's not totally shocking or surprising, right?
04:18.5
Because remember, back in the day, during the Duterte administration,
04:21.5
there were reports by some,
04:23.5
some media channels and journalists about, you know, Chinese maritime forces
04:28.5
or fishermen doing something, you know, very destructive to our environment.
04:31.5
In fact, there was a study by the Marine Sciences Institute in Yupi a few years ago
04:37.5
that put the ecological environmental damage conservatively at hundreds of millions of dollars annually.
04:45.5
So, I think this is just the, if ever true, or even if it's not true,
04:49.5
the reality is that we're facing a very difficult condition during the Scarborough Shoal.
04:52.5
If I'm not mistaken, you mentioned Vietnam also may have been involved in this.
04:56.5
I think that's another thing that we have to keep in mind because the Vietnam aspect is very important.
05:00.5
As you know, President Marcos was just in Vietnam the other week.
05:04.5
We discussed maritime security cooperation.
05:06.5
We discussed building a common front within ASEAN and beyond ASEAN
05:10.5
in dealing with China on a mini-lateral front.
05:13.5
But we also know that, you know, Vietnam also has some overlapping claims with us.
05:16.5
And the Vietnamese fishermen have been entering our waters.
05:19.5
And there were some deadly incidents in the past.
05:21.5
I think 2017, there was an incident between Philippine Navy and the Vietnamese fishermen.
05:25.5
So, it's not only China, it's also Vietnam, except it's not at the same level.
05:29.5
You know, the kind of harassment we're facing from China,
05:31.5
the 9-line claim of China is incomparable to what Vietnam is doing.
05:35.5
So, what that means is, I won't be surprised, some pro-China elements in the Philippines and propagandists
05:40.5
will try to exaggerate any Vietnamese angle, possibly, to what's happening in the Scarborough Shoal or beyond.
05:45.5
So, that's the other thing I'm also watching out for right now.
05:51.5
Just to clarify for all our viewers, it was a statement of the Filipino fishermen in Bajo de Masinlo.
05:57.5
They said, allegedly, it was Chinese and Vietnamese fishermen.
06:01.5
And I think authorities are busy trying to verify that as well as the cyanide fishing accusations as well.
06:09.5
But what do you make of that barrier removal?
06:12.5
Is that kind of China taking a step back and saying, you know, well, if people do see a barrier, maybe they'll really pin us?
06:19.5
Ask the bad guys here.
06:21.5
Is it something like that, maybe?
06:22.5
Yeah, I think the Chinese are still scratching their head and scrambling for a response to the Philippines
06:26.5
kasi itong proactive transparency initiative ng Philippine Coast Guard,
06:30.5
itong mga madal-dal natin mga kaibigan na mga spokesman sa Philippine Coast Guard,
06:35.5
this is something very shocking to China.
06:38.5
I think they've been struggling.
06:39.5
Last time I checked, I think even the Twitter account of Philippine Coast Guard was hacked or something.
06:44.5
And there was an accusation that some friends, maybe, from the other side were involved in this.
06:48.5
So, I think China is really struggling.
06:50.5
In fact, I saw some of the commentaries in China recently in some of their newspaper
06:54.5
where some Chinese experts are suggesting that it's time for them to show their sword.
07:00.5
That's the terminology that they're using.
07:02.5
So, I'm absolutely certain that there are very vehement debates within the Chinese maritime forces establishment
07:10.5
on how to best deal with the Philippines because they're looking for their own Goldilocks approach, right?
07:15.5
They want to be tough and strong enough to impress their own people and dissuade the Philippines.
07:19.5
But at the same time, I think the Chinese also are wondering.
07:21.5
I mean, you don't want to give the Marcos administration even more reasons to fortify its relationship with the United States
07:27.5
and give more reasons to Japan, Australia, and the U.S. to come to the picture.
07:30.5
So, it's a very delicate balancing act also on the part of China.
07:34.5
But one thing that I think all of us have to keep in mind is that, you know,
07:38.5
not the black swan, but the gray rhino here is the role of militia forces and some Chinese fishermen
07:47.5
who may not necessarily be doing things on the command of the Chinese military or officials.
07:53.5
So, there's some rogue elements there, including perhaps the one who was behind the Reed Bank incident in 2019.
07:59.5
If you remember, we still don't know exactly what happened there.
08:02.5
It looks like a Chinese militia was involved in that.
08:05.5
And we don't know how much of command structure following a compliance is happening there.
08:09.5
So, actually, one thing we're very worried about is crazy rogue activities by militia forces or, let's say, overseas.
08:17.5
Or zealous fishermen from other rival claimants there.
08:20.5
And it takes just one lethal incident or fatal accident for things to get out of control,
08:26.5
especially given how tense things are right now.
08:29.5
Now, PBBM urging, or continuing, urging BFAR and PCG's presence in the waters, in our waters, in our territory.
08:39.5
Sa tingin mo ba, Prof, this will steer tension? Tama ba na magsalita siya ng ganon on this part right after the recent incident?
08:47.5
Well, I think this is a new era for the Philippines in terms of, you know, in terms of maturation.
08:53.5
I mean, let's be honest. Ang gulo ng foreign policy natin.
08:56.5
Misan besi tayo ng China. Misan ayon natin sa China.
08:59.5
So, now, finally, I think the Philippines is trying to draw the line and say we have no problem with diplomacy with China,
09:05.5
which is exactly the position of President BBM.
09:08.5
He has had multiple conversation with Xi Jinping and Chinese leadership over the past year or so.
09:12.5
But there has to be red lines.
09:14.5
And the Philippines has to gain the respect of China.
09:17.5
Of course, grudgingly, by standing its ground.
09:20.5
It's not going to be riskless, but it's part of the maturation of our maritime strategy in this part of the world.
09:26.5
I mean, if you look at all our officials from National Security Council, from the Philippine Coast Guard, among others.
09:31.5
Of course, as a West Philippine Sea so-called expert, I deal with these people.
09:34.5
And I'm very impressed by their learning curve.
09:37.5
And I'm also impressed by how proactive they have been.
09:39.5
Again, this is not riskless.
09:41.5
But let's not forget, we are doing this because we are being bullied.
09:45.5
So, let's not gaslight.
09:46.5
Let's not gaslight ourselves.
09:48.5
You know, this is the problem.
09:49.5
A lot of strategic gaslighting is happening.
09:51.5
Philippines is being blamed when, in fact, we're just defending what is ours.
09:55.5
And China's nine-dash line has no basis in international law.
09:59.5
The maturation of our West Philippine Sea strategy, I love that.
10:03.5
But if you think the strategy in the past several years has been confusing,
10:08.5
what's one thing you'd like to see clearly?
10:10.5
Let's pretend that the President is watching right now.
10:13.5
What's one thing you would ask him?
10:14.5
Oh, he is watching now. I'm just kidding.
10:16.5
I mean, for me, there's still room for improvement.
10:22.5
I don't want to lose the opportunity of interviewing someone.
10:24.5
I'm just kidding.
10:25.5
No, I mean, the thing is, you know, sometimes, you know, some officials I think are kind of,
10:30.5
maybe they have the midterm elections in mind, right?
10:33.5
I think there's some officials there who are kind of compensating for their total silence during the Duterte years.
10:39.5
Okay, I'm not going to name names.
10:41.5
But I think, you know, medyo hinay-hinay lang tayo.
10:43.5
Let's leave this to the DFA.
10:44.5
Let's leave this to National Security Council.
10:46.5
Let's leave this to the Philippine Coast Guard.
10:48.5
Let's leave this to the President, right?
10:50.5
And as I said before, you know, I'd rather have the DFA and the President take a lead rhetorically on this
10:55.5
and as much as I think National Security Council and PCG are doing a good job.
10:58.5
But I think the problem sometimes is that a lot of people are trying to, I don't know,
11:01.5
it kind of comes off as grandstanding, right?
11:04.5
And compensation for their past silence.
11:06.5
But again, for me, it's part of the maturation process, right?
11:10.5
You're going to make mistakes.
11:11.5
There's going to be some, you know, excesses here and there.
11:15.5
But I'm generally optimistic about the direction of Philippine policy.
11:18.5
Having said that, as I always said, you have to prepare for contingency.
11:23.5
Things could get ugly.
11:24.5
And I won't be surprised.
11:25.5
China will indeed show its sword, kumbaga, you know, metaphorically, if not figuratively at some point,
11:30.5
just to test how much the consensus in the Philippines holds.
11:34.5
Because the consensus, as you talk also to our good friend Professor Rai from OCTA,
11:39.5
if you look at almost all key surveys, they show that majority of Filipinos want us to take a tough stance against China.
11:44.5
I'm sure there's some in China saying,
11:46.5
Tignan nga natin kung matapang talaga sila, e-test nga natin yung limits nila.
11:50.5
So this is where things are going to get tricky and that's why we have to be prepared.
11:53.5
Not only operationally, but also in terms of propaganda.
11:56.5
Because a lot of our pro-China friends in the Philippines are ready to exaggerate anything
12:00.5
to instill fear and diffidence into the heart of the Filipino people.
12:05.5
I'm not saying it will work, but I'm saying we have to be prepared for that.
12:08.5
I get what you're saying because sometimes all that noise just does nothing but muddy the water, essentially.
12:14.5
So it sounds like we're all over the place.
12:17.5
We're going to have to leave that there for now.
12:19.5
But as always, thanks so much for your insights.
12:22.5
That was Richard Higaric, political analyst and senior lecturer at the UP Asia Center.
12:27.5
One news host and also...
12:29.5
Vlogger! Influencer, yeah.
12:33.5
So we're the influencer vloggers.
12:35.5
We'll talk about Prabowo, TikTok, Indonesia and all.
12:38.5
Naging fake news tuloy.
12:39.5
Because I wanted to show my TikTok expertise.
12:41.5
But thank you very much as always. I appreciate this.
12:44.5
Thank you again next time.
12:46.5
We're going to have to pause for a very quick...
