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00:00.0
All right. Good evening, everyone. Thank you so much for joining this latest episode of the Richard Haydarn Podcast. Maraming tayong pag-usapan ngayon. Of course, today I have a very special guest. All our guests are special, but once again, we have one of my former professors here, Professor Ranjit Rai from UP Diliman, Political Science Department. Thank you very much, Prof, for joining us.
00:18.8
Thank you, Richard, for having me here. Good evening to all our guests. I mean, all our viewers, I should say, both at TV and internet, wherever this is shown all around the world. Thank you for having me here, Richard.
00:33.7
And before we start, I'd like to take the opportunity to congratulate you, my former student, with your incredible vlog and everything you're doing. I'm very proud of your citizenship and leadership.
00:47.4
As not just a media personality, but also as a budding public intellectual. I'm very proud of that because you were my student. Dati-dati, pasando-sando sandals ka lang sa klase ko. Ngayon, social kind. Pero kind of vlog dag-eo.
01:01.7
And that you are being true to your own UP roots. You serve the people through your academic work, through your advocacy, and through your leadership as a media personality, as an influencer.
01:17.4
And I think that's really good. People may disagree with you or agree with you, but you're out there putting your reputation on the line to inform, encourage people to converse, to encourage people to take part in the discussion. And I'm very proud of that. You're one of my few students who did very well in my class, and it's good to see that you're doing well now.
01:43.3
Thank you very much, Prof. Rangiride.
01:47.4
Other hat, which is your very executive position in now, a household name survey agency, OCTA. Pag-usapan natin later on. Pero aning official designation niyo, Sir Rangit, in OCTA?
01:59.1
Well, okay. In OCTA, I'm the president. I'm also a fellow.
02:03.1
As executive as you can get. Sorry, president. Yes.
02:05.7
Unfortunately, somebody has to take that job. Professor Guido David refuses to take that position. He's the chief data scientist.
02:15.5
And maybe some of the people...
02:17.4
Baka narinig niyo na kami, nung time ng COVID, kami yung magugulo dyan, nagsasalita.
02:22.4
Our goal is truth-telling and truth-seeking as an organization.
02:27.3
So it started really with COVID, looking at how science and data can inform, empower citizens during the pandemic to what we have now, which is a full social science research organization,
02:45.5
a public opinion research organization called OCTA.
02:50.4
Prof, just shortly before we go to OCTA and then go to, of course, the reason why we're together today, among others, is yung nilabas niyo yung bagong survey kung saan pinapakita na,
03:00.3
katulad ng ibang surveys, authoritative surveys na nakita natin, na ang majority na ating mga kababayan ay bukas dito sa ICC probe.
03:06.9
Bago natin pag-usapan yan, una-una, of course, naging prof ko kayo sa Philippine politics and government.
03:15.5
bit about how did you end up in that
03:17.5
realm? Because usually, alam ko yung mga nagpupulsa
03:19.3
gusto nyo mag-international, comparative
03:21.3
dahil nakaka-dismay
03:23.4
yung politika natin, to be honest.
03:25.8
What gave you the passion?
03:27.1
In the literature, ito yung low politics
03:29.4
tawag dito. High politics
03:31.2
yung the... You know, I'm an international
03:33.2
relations guy. My area of
03:35.0
interest has been India-Philippines bilateral
03:37.2
relations. Our family
03:39.5
has been... Not just me, my father,
03:43.3
have been big contributors in that
03:46.8
We've written all our research work in that
03:49.3
area. I mean, we've contributed our research
03:51.2
work in that area.
03:53.1
My particular area of specialization
03:55.5
in my graduate studies was public
03:57.4
administration, public policy and program
03:59.6
administration. I know it sounds
04:02.6
important that we understand
04:05.4
the policy process, that we understand
04:07.6
that we have a role in shaping
04:09.4
that policy process in an
04:10.9
emerging, growing, developing
04:13.4
democracy like ours in the Philippines.
04:17.2
into four really because of a project
04:20.4
eight other people, no? Seven other
04:23.1
people, including myself, no? And
04:25.1
our basic argument
04:27.4
was that there should be an alternative voice
04:29.1
in public opinion
04:31.3
research. And that's
04:33.3
what we're trying to do now, no?
04:34.9
We're very much, okay, beholden
04:37.3
to SWS and Pulse.
04:39.3
They've set the benchmark.
04:41.2
We are trying every day, no, to
04:45.1
Come closer to that benchmark.
04:47.2
And in the last three years,
04:48.9
you know, we're lucky,
04:51.2
no? Because we've been able to
04:55.0
the barrier as far as awareness
04:57.1
is concerned. And we're
04:58.9
among the top three
05:00.2
survey companies with the highest awareness
05:03.2
as far as Filipinas are concerned.
05:05.2
So when you talk about OCTA, the awareness
05:07.1
in the National Capital Region is seven out
05:09.1
of ten Filipinos. When you look at
05:11.1
OCTA awareness for the whole
05:13.0
country, it's six out of ten.
05:15.1
And we're very proud of that.
05:16.9
We achieved that in less than three years.
05:22.9
truth-telling and truth-seeking
05:25.1
as the basic foundation for our work.
05:29.2
investigated in Congress for telling
05:31.1
the truth, no? Basically.
05:35.3
Sabi nga ng mga kaibigan namin sa
05:36.8
survey agencies, they've been there for 30 years.
05:39.3
They were dreaming of being investigated by
05:41.1
Congress, no? Kami nga, we
05:43.0
weren't even two years old. We were investigated.
05:45.1
By Congress. Large people were telling the
05:47.1
truth. And the last elections,
05:49.2
2022, I think we did
05:51.0
extremely well. 100%, no?
05:53.0
Batting average as far as the President,
05:55.0
the Vice President is concerned.
05:56.8
All the Senators until the number 15,
05:59.1
we got it right. Except for the placement of
06:01.1
Robin Padilla. Only God knew
06:03.0
that, no? Okay. So
06:07.0
we've been, we decided
06:09.0
as an organization that
06:10.2
it's our duty as citizens, no?
06:12.8
To contribute to this conversation.
06:15.1
To this whole arena
06:17.0
of knowledge, no?
06:19.0
Knowledge generation called public opinion
06:20.8
research. So that's Okta for us
06:24.9
now moving forward, no?
06:26.9
As far as our surveys are concerned. This is the
06:28.8
second, almost three years now,
06:30.8
of surveys we've had. We're building
06:32.9
up our database and
06:34.8
hopefully we will continue to do good
06:36.8
as far as our advocacy and our
06:38.8
research is concerned.
06:42.6
before going to the
06:43.6
major intelligence,
06:45.1
court and service you have conducted
06:46.7
recently, na public ngayon. Kasi may mga commission
06:48.6
service na hindi natin pwede pag-usapan kasi
06:50.8
siyempre pinayaran yun and may privileges
06:52.9
and all that comes with it.
06:54.3
I mean in a professional sense.
06:56.7
Yung term kasi ng bayaran ay nag-negative
06:59.4
Can you tell us a little bit about bakit
07:04.2
Is it a number thing?
07:06.2
And then the composition. Because one of the things I
07:08.7
remember is the reason why Okta
07:10.8
became a household name faster than
07:12.7
any institution I know in the country.
07:15.1
Mas crazy pa yung meteoric
07:16.6
pa yung rise. It's because you guys
07:18.5
were doing analysis,
07:20.7
epidemiological analysis
07:22.2
at the height of the pandemic in
07:24.3
ways that no other agencies were doing. And then later
07:26.6
on mas naging transition kayo into full-fledged
07:28.9
survey agencies. How did that come
07:30.6
about? I mean of course you're a political scientist, but
07:32.5
a number of your colleagues I know are statisticians,
07:35.3
David, mathematicians,
07:37.2
there's some folks from
07:38.3
UST or affiliated with UST who were in the
07:40.3
public health realm. Can you tell us a little bit
07:42.5
about this? Kasi alam ko medyo naging
07:44.3
controversial lang una. Sino itong Okta na ito? Bakit
07:46.4
everyone is citing them? Sino ba itong mga ito?
07:49.0
Public health expert ba sila?
07:50.6
Are they epidemiologists or are they mathematicians?
07:53.2
So for the purpose of
07:54.4
clarifications and clarity, not that you need
07:56.6
to defend yourself anymore, you guys are big already.
07:59.0
But just for the purpose of our audience
08:02.4
Ang Okta Research kasi was
08:03.9
the idea what founded in
08:08.2
The inspiration here,
08:10.9
the eight other people, they don't want to be
08:12.5
mentioned, but my father,
08:14.3
Dr. Roger Posadas, former
08:17.4
UPD Liman was a big
08:19.7
inspiration here. Dr. Serafin
08:22.6
Talisayon used to work with
08:24.1
General Almonte as
08:26.6
a Deputy National Security Advisor
08:28.2
and some other individuals who don't
08:30.5
want to be named, became an
08:32.4
inspiration to us to start
08:34.3
a public opinion research
08:39.3
and in a bigger, broader level,
08:42.3
a social science research organization.
08:46.7
can freely express
08:49.4
their positions, their research work
08:50.9
can be a vehicle for UP professors
08:53.5
to come out and do research.
08:57.3
original inspiration for
08:59.3
Okta that was in 2019.
09:01.3
And in 2020, unfortunately for us
09:03.6
or fortunately for us, we found a
09:05.3
venue. Professor David,
09:07.3
Guido David of the Institute of Math
09:09.1
was doing a research paper on
09:20.3
He was doing a journal article
09:22.0
and asking me about the policy
09:25.1
of doing this kind of research.
09:29.5
because of the lockdown, which affected
09:32.1
all of us, there were only two choices.
09:34.3
One is to contribute to the national
09:36.5
effort to understand this
09:38.4
pandemic or to spend
09:40.4
their time watching K-drama.
09:44.3
former. And we started
09:46.9
doing, contributing
09:49.2
to the conversation
09:50.4
on a weekly basis, Richard. On a weekly
09:52.9
basis, we released our results.
09:55.2
We gave them to whoever
09:56.5
wanted the results. We gave it
09:58.9
of course to IATF.
10:00.8
And it turned out that our projections,
10:03.3
somebody at least on the internet
10:04.8
began to see, hey, our projections were doing
10:08.8
With the nail on the head.
10:10.5
We were very accurate with our
10:14.3
And that's where it started.
10:16.7
The advocacy to use science
10:21.0
citizens with information.
10:23.3
The belief that empowered citizens
10:24.9
can make decisions
10:26.7
in a democracy like ours.
10:28.5
And so this became
10:29.9
what was initially a
10:34.5
became an advocacy. And then
10:36.3
of course, we bolted out of
10:38.6
where we separated from UP
10:44.3
the kind of research we were doing
10:46.1
as far as COVID was concerned.
10:48.0
And this led us to decide, hey,
10:50.0
why don't we start doing public
10:52.1
opinion research? We're composed
10:53.9
largely of natural scientists,
10:56.1
mostly doctors, medical doctors.
10:58.5
But we have a team of around
11:07.8
three mathematicians
11:09.0
of graduate level.
11:11.0
So everybody in our team
11:14.3
It's a graduate of UP, except for one,
11:18.7
Nicanor Ostreaco.
11:20.1
Who is a public health
11:24.2
Pennsylvania and in MIT,
11:25.9
PhD in MIT. And he was
11:28.0
a virologist from USD
11:32.1
in Providence College. He was borrowed
11:36.1
was the only non-UP member of
11:39.7
most of our own faculty
11:42.3
from UP composed of
11:44.3
the research now. So largely, it's a UP
11:48.9
But of course, we were
11:50.8
very proud of our fellows. All of them
11:52.8
did volunteer work for COVID
11:57.2
So it's it should be around
11:59.0
15 to 20 members and fellows
12:01.5
right now who are actively involved still
12:04.8
with the advocacy and work about that.
12:07.9
Thank you for giving that kind of
12:09.3
background. I think at the beginning,
12:11.5
may konting confusion. Eto ba'y OKTA UP or OKTA UP?
12:13.0
OKTA UP or OKTA UP?
12:14.2
OKTA UP or OKTA UP?
12:15.3
OKTA UP or OKTA UP?
12:15.6
OKTA UP or OKTA UP?
12:15.7
OKTA UP or OKTA UP?
12:17.5
OKTA UP or OKTA UP?
12:17.9
OKTA UP or OKTA UP?
12:18.0
OKTA UP or OKTA UP?
12:18.0
OKTA UP or OKTA UP?
12:18.1
I also remember, and as someone
12:20.0
who doesn't overproduce his
12:22.1
stuff, naalala ko there was a time na yung
12:23.9
website niyo, parang hindi pa ganong kakompleto.
12:26.7
Alam ko, magaan pa kayo ng mga
12:27.8
template pictures.
12:31.7
Our website has been hacked a couple of times.
12:34.9
That's why we're moving towards a more secure
12:37.7
platform. You know, we're
12:40.1
public school teachers
12:42.2
doing public opinion research.
12:43.7
We're so unprepared, honestly.
12:45.8
So unprofessional, I have to admit,
12:47.7
when it comes to doing this kind of work.
12:50.0
So we had to hire a couple of people
12:51.7
and we found out, also from my research,
12:54.6
that a lot of people really go to
12:55.9
Facebook, TikTok, and so
12:57.8
we're developing our presence there.
13:00.2
And we apologize to the public
13:02.0
if we haven't updated in our
13:03.9
website because it's constantly being hacked
13:07.3
You won't believe, no? Our own
13:09.6
provider is already complaining.
13:11.5
He's putting too much manpower
13:13.5
and time just defending the site,
13:15.6
no? So we will be
13:17.3
coming out with a better site. We're in the
13:19.4
process of coming out with a better site
13:21.2
with an actual database of everything
13:23.5
we have done. And
13:25.2
pretty soon, once
13:26.8
after a year, a lot of the work that has
13:29.5
been embargoed will now be available
13:31.6
to the public. And the
13:33.6
ethos of OCTA is really academic
13:35.2
in nature, no? So
13:36.9
we were the first, our own fellows
13:39.6
were the first to publish
13:43.5
international journal,
13:46.2
in an international journal,
13:48.0
COVID-related studies, no?
13:49.8
We've been at the forefront of
13:51.2
trying to generate
13:59.9
statistical data. So we've
14:01.7
published quite a number of journal articles
14:03.7
already as a group,
14:06.0
no? And so we're still trying to
14:07.7
generate that. So this is the
14:09.1
mindset of OCTA. We're here to
14:11.7
contribute. We're here to call
14:13.5
and collaborate. We're not here to
14:15.4
compete with the top two. We
14:17.3
recognize the top two firms,
14:19.7
Pulse Asia and SWS.
14:21.7
What we want to do, Richard, is for
14:23.5
social scientists like you, to
14:25.5
come out with three surveys, no?
14:27.8
Most of the survey companies,
14:33.3
periods, no? So we wanted to always,
14:35.7
we were always studying, what's the
14:37.5
high count of the survey?
14:40.4
I'll be the tiebreaker, the
14:41.6
validator, di ba? So OCTA will come out.
14:43.5
It will come out last normally.
14:45.4
And like last year, we ended,
14:47.7
we have the latest survey for the fourth quarter
14:49.5
for the whole country. If you're just looking at
14:51.4
SWS, Pulse, and OCTA.
14:53.6
And what came out, of course, is
14:55.4
what has been in the news, all over the news today.
14:59.8
want to rejoin the ICC.
15:04.2
And number two, that
15:05.0
Filipinos are supportive, no?
15:07.6
Of the call for government to
15:09.4
cooperate with the ICC
15:11.3
investigations on the
15:13.5
drug-related killings that happened
15:15.2
during the last administration.
15:18.8
Thank you. I think we're already transitioning.
15:21.4
Thank you for my co-host for
15:23.1
overseeing the transition.
15:25.0
I just wanted, you know, I mean,
15:27.9
bro, French, I look forward to having
15:29.3
more of these conversations quite regularly over
15:31.3
time, as long as you have time and then you're open.
15:33.2
So kaya nga sabi ko, parating ginagawa ko is
15:35.5
you know, a little bit of a background, understanding,
15:37.8
para alam ng tao, hindi lang tayo
15:39.2
nag-hello-hi lang dahil lang nagtetrending
15:41.4
yung report niyo ngayon.
15:43.5
To personal and institutional ties
15:45.6
for quite some time. And I also commend
15:47.7
you guys for doing a fantastic job.
15:49.9
I was just in Tokyo the other weekend.
15:51.8
There was a new institute of geoeconomics
15:54.0
and it was established by the senior professors
15:55.7
from University of Tokyo. And they were telling
15:57.9
us how everyone is threatened by them
15:59.7
because, you know, they just came out of nowhere.
16:02.1
And they're so, for the
16:03.9
lack of a better term, very American, right? You go
16:05.8
there, they're very open. It's in a posh
16:07.9
area. It's not your typical
16:09.9
Japanese institutions and all.
16:11.9
And they're doing very well.
16:13.5
They're doing very well. Mayroon silang surveys of top
16:15.5
hundred, parang Fortune 100
16:18.0
of Japan. So I think
16:19.7
the past two, three, five years has been
16:21.5
the age of disruption. And many
16:23.3
people out of nowhere, many institutions
16:25.8
out of nowhere have been doing very well as long as
16:27.6
they had those foundations. So
16:29.1
your experience reminds me of what's happening
16:31.5
also in Tokyo and all around the world. And of course,
16:33.4
in my case, in my own small way also,
16:35.6
you know, the past few years, I also tried to build
16:37.3
some sort of niche here and all of that. Now,
16:39.8
pag-usapan natin itong mga surveys. Kasi
16:41.3
to be honest, ang survey,
16:43.5
the survey agencies ngayon, the whole survey
16:45.3
business nowadays has come under
16:47.5
a lot of skepticism and all. I mean,
16:50.0
alam natin sa Pilipinas, I mean, you know
16:51.4
more than anyone. Sa Pilipinas, walang natatalo.
16:53.9
Natadayaan lang or nananalo.
16:55.6
But one of the things we noticed in last
16:57.5
elections, things got very, very
16:59.4
toxic. And from people that we should have known
17:01.5
better, I mean, some of them are from our institution,
17:04.2
you know, they were
17:05.1
trying to invoke, I don't know, like Google
17:07.3
Trends or all sorts of different
17:09.5
big data stuff. And
17:11.7
there were also some very malicious, I would say,
17:13.5
let's say, attacks against some of our friends
17:15.4
and colleagues, including against our good friends
17:17.4
in Paul's Asia, sila Ronnie Holmes.
17:19.6
The amount of stress he had to go through
17:21.3
throughout the years. So having said
17:27.4
kayo dito sa eksena ng
17:29.1
political surveys and all of that,
17:31.3
what was your state of mind? Was your state of mind
17:33.4
also about, you know, fighting for
17:35.4
this? Because if we're not gonna do
17:37.4
evidence-based policy
17:39.3
analysis, evidence-based political analysis,
17:41.3
and then kwentong barabera na lang tayong lahat. Although,
17:43.5
hindi yung ibang kwentong barabera, there are levels
17:45.6
to it. I mean, how did you navigate
17:47.5
also that very toxic environment? Dahil
17:49.5
syempre, kung ayaw kayo digong, tapos yung
17:51.3
surveys na, si digong mataas, inisan
17:53.3
tao sa'yo. Kung mababa si digong,
17:55.5
galit naman yung kabila. So in a polarized
17:57.4
environment, I would imagine,
17:59.5
it was very difficult getting into this world. Can you
18:01.5
tell me a little bit also about that before we go to
18:03.5
this very sensitive topic? It was extremely challenging
18:05.2
because, number one,
18:07.5
this was something that everyone
18:09.3
in OCTA agreed would
18:11.3
be our direction. In fact, there was a
18:13.3
big, lively debate about it.
18:19.7
truth-telling and truth-seeking is really
18:21.4
a lonely job at some
18:23.4
level. You know this, although you're
18:25.2
trying your best to do this also yourself.
18:29.4
we got investigated by Congress. There was
18:31.3
an inquisition against us.
18:33.2
And it's so unfortunate
18:37.4
we were doing was telling the truth. And, you
18:39.4
know, the proof of the pudding is really
18:41.2
in the eating. In this kind of work,
18:43.9
is so important. Integrity
18:47.4
is so important. And I think
18:49.1
we were able to prove that.
18:51.6
We had the same struggles with
18:53.5
SWS and Pulse. We've been here
18:57.1
In the run-up to the 2022 elections,
18:59.8
nobody believed us. They believed in the
19:01.2
Kalya surveys. But when
19:03.4
the results came...
19:04.4
Ang daming umaman sa mga Kalya survey
19:08.0
In the millions, di ba?
19:10.1
Yeah, at some point,
19:11.3
you know, the Institute of
19:13.2
Statistics had to come out with
19:14.5
a statement basically
19:16.5
exhorting people to
19:19.3
look at the science of
19:21.3
this. That this is not just haka-haka
19:23.1
kuro-kuro. Ito'y siyensiya.
19:27.5
like what we were doing
19:29.3
with COVID, our research there,
19:33.3
to really inform the public. And in
19:36.8
we were proven correct. All the survey
19:39.1
companies were proven correct. And we were very
19:41.1
proud of our work in OCTA.
19:43.2
We came out with, three weeks before the election,
19:50.2
We were, by the way, surprised by that also.
19:52.1
We knew it was going to win, but to win
19:54.4
that big was incredible, no?
19:56.3
We released it. The actual
19:58.4
vote was 58.7%, Richard.
20:04.0
we're extolling the science here. What
20:06.1
came out was exactly
20:08.0
very near what we predicted.
20:10.8
And our top 12 senators came out.
20:13.2
Exactly how we predicted.
20:15.6
Some survey companies missed
20:17.7
one or two candidates, but OCTA did not
20:19.9
miss a single one. So,
20:23.7
as an organization, but I guess
20:26.0
it was the science of
20:27.8
statistics that won
20:30.1
the day. And I don't think there's
20:32.1
a lot of people who
20:33.9
question surveys now. What they question
20:36.0
now, Richard, is the integrity of
20:38.0
the survey company.
20:39.9
And, you know, as long
20:42.0
as, you know, SWS,
20:43.2
and we can continue
20:45.6
to validate what they come out with,
20:48.2
we can now cross-validate.
20:50.4
And the more the merrier,
20:51.5
because in the United States, Richard,
20:53.0
Oh yeah, there are like nine
20:59.6
There are media, right?
21:01.0
They have like nine surveys.
21:03.3
You look at a website
21:05.2
like Real Clear Politics in the United
21:07.3
States, where you have five or
21:09.3
six survey companies'
21:11.2
results open to the public.
21:13.2
Compared, you know, and people
21:15.2
get a good picture of, you know,
21:17.3
the political landscape, no? They get a
21:21.3
the political context, no?
21:23.0
And, you know, in a sense,
21:25.4
surveys have a democratizing
21:27.3
effect there, you know? After
21:29.2
elections, people are never consulted.
21:31.3
Truly, Richard. After the
21:33.0
candidate wins, wala naman,
21:35.2
hindi na pinapansin yung mga butante.
21:37.0
Pero dito sa survey, napapakinggan
21:45.0
our leaders listen to surveys.
21:47.3
You won't believe. Okay?
21:49.1
We have a survey that will come out with a
21:51.2
report, no? That's something like 20%
21:53.4
of our voters change
21:56.9
because of what they
21:58.0
learn from the surveys. We'll try to come out with
22:01.1
that result, no? And
22:03.1
validate that it's all...
22:04.2
Let's have a separate episode on that, perhaps.
22:06.7
Yeah, yeah. We'll give you the report on that.
22:09.3
Very interesting.
22:09.8
So, another thing that's
22:11.9
important is that, you know,
22:13.2
surveys also, in a sense,
22:15.9
because if they're done methodically
22:17.8
and scientifically using the best
22:19.6
practices, if there are not enough
22:21.8
survey companies who do that, you can validate
22:23.7
and cross-validate, confirm
22:28.1
the nation is thinking about
22:29.9
issues. In some sense,
22:31.9
it's a way to understand
22:33.9
who we are, where we
22:35.8
want to go, you know,
22:38.1
as a people. But where
22:39.8
we want to go is hard to answer if we don't know
22:41.6
who we are and what we think
22:43.2
about issues. So, surveys
22:44.8
contribute to understanding who we are as a
22:47.1
people, what our sentiments are
22:49.1
on different issues, on a range of
22:51.1
issues. And if there are enough good
22:53.1
survey companies, and there are good survey companies
22:55.3
there. SWS and Pulse are very good survey
22:57.1
companies. And they have a track
22:59.0
record. OCTA is trying to
23:01.0
follow in their footsteps,
23:05.1
reputation similar to them. If we have
23:09.0
survey companies, I think the science
23:11.1
and statistics will thrive.
23:13.2
People will continue to believe in the
23:15.1
science of surveys
23:17.4
that underlies surveys
23:19.1
and will be better informed, in a sense,
23:21.4
no? And more aware
23:23.2
of what others are thinking about this issue.
23:25.5
It has an impact on democracy and development
23:27.2
because people will have to support the
23:28.9
empowering. Just to push back
23:31.2
again, not me, but I mean, just the devil's
23:33.1
advocate. What about this argument of mind conditioning?
23:35.4
I know there was an interesting
23:36.9
number of academic papers on the
23:41.1
that surveys may have in terms of like,
23:43.2
making you realize, itong candidate
23:44.9
hindi viable, so dun na lang ko sa iba.
23:46.7
What do you say about that? Bandwagoning effect
23:49.1
that could happen? Yeah, the bandwagon effect.
23:50.8
We haven't seen it yet.
23:52.6
We haven't seen, well, we're
23:55.1
studying it, Richard. To be very
23:57.1
honest, we're looking into it.
23:59.1
We haven't accepted anybody's
24:01.0
position on the issue. We have
24:02.8
a couple of quarters now
24:04.8
of survey results that
24:07.0
show that it's nominal.
24:09.2
The bandwagon effect is nominal.
24:11.4
But it's not insignificant.
24:13.2
There are people who get, I just told you
24:14.8
about the percentage. There are people who change
24:19.3
largely because of what they
24:20.9
learn from the surveys. But it's not
24:22.7
majority of our population.
24:25.0
And it also, you know, in a sense
24:26.8
informs us that hindi naman
24:28.6
bubutante ang Pilipino. Even on this
24:30.8
issue of ICC, you can see, you know, if you give them
24:32.8
an awareness of the issue.
24:35.0
So in this particular
24:37.0
survey, we had an explanatory card
24:40.3
told our interviewees, this is what
24:44.6
It's basic function in protecting rights.
24:47.4
We were once a member.
24:49.7
So then we asked a basic question.
24:50.8
Do you think we should, but we're not anymore the member.
24:53.0
Should we rejoin?
24:54.6
That's a basic question. Once you inform them,
24:56.8
they have a position. And when you look at the survey results,
24:59.3
there's not too much gray area, no?
25:01.8
It's either they're for
25:02.8
or against. Majority are for
25:04.4
rejoining the ICC.
25:06.2
Can we go to your survey, Professor?
25:09.1
Can you screen share for the purpose
25:10.8
of our audience? Obviously,
25:12.7
now people are just hearing you, but the finalist
25:14.7
version will have it all out there, just in case
25:16.8
hindi sila naka-access dito. So
25:18.5
tingnan natin muna yung mga data, no?
25:24.4
I think it's still loading.
25:26.5
Let me just see if we can...
25:29.7
Yeah, is that good?
25:31.9
At a glance, for everyone, is that good?
25:35.3
So our survey is a
25:36.7
fourth-quarter survey,
25:38.7
which means it was done in
25:42.7
We released it only in Feb.
25:45.1
The probe is on the ICC.
25:47.1
It's an investigation in the Philippines.
25:49.1
So what's important
25:52.1
here to understand is
25:53.0
these numbers would have changed by now.
25:55.7
These numbers would have changed
25:57.2
by now because of so much that has
25:59.2
happened since January.
26:01.1
So this is just the fourth quarter.
26:03.2
And what is it saying?
26:04.9
On the question of
26:06.5
rejoining the International Criminal Court,
26:11.2
Filipinos are in favor of rejoining.
26:12.7
The International, the ICC.
26:16.6
that's a significant number,
26:18.4
who are not in favor.
26:19.7
So there's a position.
26:21.4
It says that in this particular survey,
26:23.8
there are more people who want to rejoin the ICC.
26:27.1
Number two, on the question of
26:28.7
cooperating with the International
26:30.5
Criminal Court in its
26:32.6
investigation of drug-related killings
26:34.6
during the Duterte administration,
26:36.5
again, majority, 55%
26:38.7
of adult Filipinos are in favor
26:40.8
of the government
26:41.9
cooperating with the International Criminal Court.
26:46.5
are not in favor.
26:47.5
So it's really tight.
26:48.7
It's really divisive.
26:49.8
It's really polarizing.
26:51.6
It's interesting.
26:52.9
There's an opinion on this issue,
26:55.5
especially when you make them aware
26:57.9
or remind them of the issue.
27:00.3
So it's a little undecided,
27:01.6
which is quite different from
27:02.8
the impression you get from some of the other
27:04.5
discussions and surveys.
27:05.9
It's very polarized.
27:08.4
We were also surprised ourselves.
27:10.2
And you look at the...
27:15.5
regional spread is concerned,
27:18.2
NCR, Balans Luzon,
27:20.2
Visayas, and Mindanao.
27:21.4
And then the class element,
27:22.7
so yung 80, 60, 70.
27:24.7
Across the board,
27:27.5
it's majority of people
27:30.8
including Mindanao.
27:34.0
there's a margin of error
27:35.5
of plus, minus three.
27:40.3
even if you factor this in,
27:41.6
you'll see that majority,
27:44.9
or see the importance
27:47.3
the International Criminal Court.
27:50.0
And I think that's important for us.
27:56.9
age is concerned,
28:05.3
you see a large number
28:09.8
basically supporting
28:11.5
rejoining the ICC.
28:15.2
So, ang pinakamataas,
28:19.3
Yeah, of those we were,
28:20.7
yeah, of that age group.
28:22.2
when you look at the population,
28:23.4
it's really below 35 years old.
28:25.5
You know, the bulk of the population.
28:27.4
And when you look at that,
28:28.3
it's fairly clear
28:29.4
that more than half, no?
28:31.1
Of the population,
28:32.9
or majority of the population
28:34.4
are open to this.
28:37.0
if this will change
28:38.2
in the forthcoming survey
28:41.5
It will be conducted
28:44.7
It could go down.
28:46.6
But what we do know
28:47.5
is that this validates
28:48.6
basically to some extent
28:50.2
what SWS is also seeing.
28:53.3
Different question.
28:57.3
with the probe, right?
29:00.3
Just a point lang,
29:02.2
pwede balikan natin ng konti?
29:03.7
what is your read
29:04.6
on the millennials
29:09.0
almost 7 out of 10,
29:12.4
Is there something there?
29:15.6
Is there a sociological...
29:17.5
Maybe we will suspend
29:18.4
the analysis of that
29:20.1
until our next...
29:20.9
Oh, we have more data.
29:21.6
We can get something
29:23.5
At least we can study
29:24.9
see how things are changing.
29:27.0
is this the first survey
29:31.1
This is the first.
29:31.9
This is the first.
29:35.7
And only two questions,
29:39.6
put in a question
29:43.7
an information card
29:46.4
read to our interviewers,
29:47.8
explaining what the ICC
29:52.0
maybe we'll change that
29:55.8
Maybe add more questions.
29:57.7
So, this is how it looks,
30:02.8
gender is concerned.
30:07.0
There are more people
30:08.0
in the rural areas.
30:08.9
It's interesting,
30:12.7
Correct, correct.
30:13.5
People who probably look at
30:15.0
the human rights aspect of it,
30:17.0
protection aspect
30:22.3
postgraduate and college graduates.
30:23.8
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
30:26.3
pretty predictable
30:27.9
because these are people
30:29.6
the more educated,
30:34.0
The more awareness
30:37.4
Now, on the second question,
30:38.8
should the government
30:40.3
This is a big question,
30:41.3
raised by the press
30:42.0
and in his December
30:44.5
Of course, we all know that
30:45.4
all of that has changed
30:47.5
The press has a completely
30:48.6
different position
30:50.7
And we see this as,
30:52.8
people, you know,
30:53.6
taking my hat off.
30:55.1
You begin to question
30:56.0
whether this is about
30:56.8
principle or leveraging
30:59.6
The changing position
31:00.6
of our chief executive
31:05.4
a change of heart,
31:13.1
our position on the ICC.
31:19.4
majority of the population
31:21.3
want the government
31:24.7
with the investigation
31:27.0
drug-related killings
31:29.3
during the Duterte
31:30.9
This is the table.
31:33.2
It's interesting.
31:35.8
This is very different
31:37.3
from the first table.
31:38.2
We have lower numbers
31:41.8
We have a slightly
31:52.6
the socioeconomic
31:54.2
classes are concerned.
31:56.0
The highest is in
32:03.7
this is significant
32:04.4
because we didn't expect
32:05.5
this kind of result.
32:10.7
it's a fairly divisive
32:16.4
I find it interesting
32:17.3
that Balanz Luzon
32:21.5
and then Mindanao
32:22.4
is like 60-40 spread
32:24.8
which just tells you
32:25.9
there's also this
32:26.4
geographic aspect.
32:27.2
But I want to ask,
32:27.9
I don't see it here,
32:28.9
but is there also
32:29.9
a Mindanao spread?
32:31.2
the Davao region,
32:33.3
versus, let's say,
32:34.9
Northern Mindanao.
32:36.1
Yeah, let's look at that.
32:36.8
Yeah, let's look at that.
32:38.7
That's interesting.
32:40.1
That's interesting.
32:42.6
The last three areas.
32:47.7
that there's a position
32:51.3
there's a regional
32:54.8
But we don't know.
32:56.2
an initial baseline survey
33:00.2
with another survey
33:06.0
we'll provide you
33:07.3
see these changes.
33:08.7
West Philippine Sea survey.
33:09.9
I don't know if you got it.
33:11.2
We sent it to you.
33:15.3
Over the last three quarters,
33:20.5
the Philippine public
33:22.6
what are the three,
33:23.7
what are the measures
33:24.5
government should look into
33:28.9
in resolving the issues
33:30.2
related to the West Philippine Sea.
33:32.7
Number one was always,
33:34.9
through diplomatic means.
33:36.9
That's around 70%.
33:38.4
And it's always been
33:39.9
the number one measure,
33:43.3
or menu of measures.
33:52.1
or expanding naval
33:53.3
and through presence
33:56.2
Always number two.
33:58.8
modernizing the military.
34:00.6
In the last quarter,
34:03.4
For the first time,
34:05.8
expanding our military presence,
34:08.4
naval and military,
34:09.9
and the troop presence
34:11.3
became number one.
34:14.4
if I'm not mistaken,
34:15.8
that was a six-point increase.
34:18.5
Which clearly had something
34:19.5
to do with the 9-4-5 union.
34:21.0
Yeah, the public changes
34:22.1
And I think it's largely
34:23.4
due to the information
34:25.0
provided by the armed forces,
34:28.4
on what's really happening
34:29.4
in the West Philippine Sea.
34:31.0
So the position now is,
34:33.0
we'll have a dual-track approach.
34:34.9
But I think we should emphasize,
34:36.2
the public is saying
34:37.0
to the government,
34:37.6
we should emphasize
34:43.6
in our own survey,
34:45.1
that was defined as
34:47.5
and troop presence
34:48.7
in the West Philippine Sea.
34:50.4
And the distant fourth,
34:51.7
but still significant,
34:53.4
was joint military
34:57.4
with allied countries.
34:59.0
So the government is doing
35:01.7
exactly what people
35:03.7
are saying it should do,
35:07.3
it should prioritize.
35:08.8
When you look at the
35:12.9
with the government's response
35:14.3
in the West Philippine Sea,
35:18.1
for two quarters.
35:19.9
the trend shifted
35:23.0
surveys are important
35:29.0
It provides government information,
35:35.1
how it's performing
35:41.2
a plethora of issues
35:42.9
that challenge it
35:44.5
or challenge our government.
35:46.6
that's what we're seeing.
35:47.5
We're seeing that
35:51.9
the public is engaged
35:54.3
and that they will change
35:55.4
their own position.
35:58.1
Yeah, I brought it back
35:59.2
because we were already
35:59.8
discussing a different survey
36:01.3
in the West Philippine Sea.
36:02.7
Do you have a copy
36:03.4
of the West Philippine Sea one
36:04.5
that you want to share right now?
36:05.4
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
36:05.8
We can show that.
36:09.6
we still have our data.
36:11.4
but I'll look for it
36:13.9
while we're talking about it.
36:16.5
What I want to emphasize
36:19.3
what we're seeing now
36:20.3
is just the fourth quarter.
36:26.3
a public perception,
36:31.7
because of the information
36:33.6
and because of the,
36:36.9
informing the public
36:37.8
what's really happening.
36:39.6
And this is what,
36:41.0
this is the impact,
36:42.4
changing perceptions
36:44.8
We saw this dramatic change
36:46.6
in our West Philippine Sea probe.
36:52.8
if we're to follow
36:56.2
of another survey agency,
37:00.4
and the good thing about this
37:01.4
is that we're validating
37:05.3
So, we're seeing the same thing,
37:06.8
although we ask different questions.
37:08.8
we're seeing a confluence
37:14.2
And while this is just a snapshot,
37:17.1
it could consolidate even more
37:19.8
in the next survey.
37:21.5
Or it could change completely.
37:25.1
that's why it's important
37:26.4
we do this quarterly.
37:29.2
share data to the public
37:31.2
so we can compare.
37:34.1
this is where we are now.
37:35.3
We're hoping that
37:36.2
we can continue to
37:38.4
provide information
37:42.8
those that we discussed now.
37:45.8
I think now we're going to transition
37:47.2
to the part where I want you
37:48.3
to put your political analyst hat,
37:50.6
As a leading analyst.
37:53.0
you're the octa-president guy talking
37:55.2
and I appreciate that
37:56.4
because we have to look
37:59.5
the good thing is that
38:00.2
as you mentioned,
38:01.0
we already have data
38:01.9
longitudinal almost.
38:03.2
I remember very well
38:04.0
because I write a lot
38:05.3
on the West Philippine Sea issue.
38:06.9
But getting them,
38:07.4
we establish and policy.
38:08.4
Pretty consistent
38:09.3
even yung panonidigong
38:12.1
9 out of 10 Filipinos
38:14.0
wanted us to take a tougher stance
38:15.6
on the West Philippine issue
38:16.8
which was quite divergent
38:18.7
former President Duterte
38:21.5
The ICC is quite different.
38:28.6
there was some upward trajectory
38:30.1
in terms of support
38:31.6
for the probe in ICC
38:33.2
which I think is important.
38:36.1
we have many interesting people
38:37.5
from different sides
38:38.4
of course supporters of Duterte
38:39.6
are commenting on TikTok.
38:41.3
I'm also live on TikTok
38:44.7
ma-arresto si Digong.
38:46.2
we're not saying...
38:46.6
Yeah, that's true.
38:47.8
That's a very important point.
38:50.1
Our survey is not talking about that.
38:52.1
we failed to ask that question.
38:57.6
something similar to that.
38:60.0
they got a very different result.
39:03.8
general agreement
39:04.3
that we should rejoin the ICC,
39:06.6
that we should cooperate
39:08.4
in seeking justice
39:10.8
for those who are wrong
39:12.2
in the drug wars,
39:14.2
it's a completely different issue
39:15.7
when you talk about
39:16.9
jailing the ex-president.
39:20.2
we have no data on.
39:25.7
that was important
39:26.3
because I remember
39:26.8
the moment I shared about SWS,
39:30.2
the usual suspects
39:31.6
attack me and say,
39:33.1
you didn't mention the part
39:35.2
only a plurality,
39:37.1
said they trust the ICC.
39:40.2
it's like a spin game.
39:42.8
which part of the survey
39:44.0
you want to emphasize?
39:45.6
my analysis here is,
39:47.6
at the very least,
39:49.5
you're free to disagree with me,
39:51.5
At the very least,
39:53.3
the attacks of Digong
39:55.3
and the Duterte side
39:59.3
while they may not be
40:00.7
complete trust in ICC
40:03.2
of how they handled
40:03.8
the Duterte issue,
40:05.2
at the same time,
40:05.9
the majority are also
40:06.6
not agreeing with Duterte
40:12.4
violating our sovereignty.
40:13.7
that's the stance
40:16.2
including the one
40:16.9
who topped the Senate
40:19.4
in defiance of most surveys
40:25.6
can be interpreted
40:26.8
in different ways.
40:28.2
And I also wanted
40:29.2
to see the longitude
40:30.0
and the trend lines
40:31.3
as I look forward
40:34.1
But this is where
40:34.6
I want to ask the question,
40:35.9
this is where I want
40:37.5
as political analyst
40:39.7
political scientist
40:43.8
Because if you want to,
40:45.7
kasi akin ganito,
40:48.3
we have had ever since
40:53.1
pro-Duterte influencers
40:54.3
that we have to also
40:55.7
yung trust issues
40:57.7
But in the same breath,
40:59.5
during the Digong time,
41:00.4
there was also that problem.
41:02.0
if you look at the surveys
41:04.1
for Duterte's drug war,
41:10.2
and more than 8 out of 10
41:11.2
in other major regions
41:13.9
na magkaroon ng EJK.
41:15.2
They want the drug suspects
41:17.1
And more than 7 out of 10
41:18.3
said they're fearful
41:19.3
that they'll be a victim
41:21.3
So that clearly tells you
41:22.9
for Duterte's drug war
41:23.9
also was very nuanced.
41:25.4
It was not a categorical support
41:27.1
both means and ends.
41:29.2
It was very conditional.
41:33.1
we analyze the surveys
41:36.5
to just emphasize
41:38.7
So I take the critique
41:39.8
but I also want to say
41:40.8
you didn't do that
41:42.1
during that time.
41:43.0
So it's fair to have
41:43.7
this kind of conversation.
41:45.1
what is your take on that?
41:46.0
This kind of conditionality
41:48.5
I agree with you.
41:50.5
there are two levels
41:52.9
the framing of the survey
41:54.3
questions themselves.
42:00.8
Filipinos are not stupid.
42:03.0
They're discerning
42:04.3
intelligent people
42:09.1
we're nobody's for drugs.
42:11.1
Nobody wants to go home
42:12.7
in their eskenitas
42:17.1
Nobody wants their communities
42:18.6
controlled by narco.
42:21.1
Nobody wants to have
42:23.1
but that doesn't mean
42:24.1
that doesn't mean
42:25.1
that you can't balance
42:26.1
that advocacy against drugs
42:28.1
with protecting rights.
42:29.1
So this is a big issue
42:32.1
and then survey after survey
42:34.1
even in our surveys
42:39.0
for most Filipinos.
42:42.0
but not at the expense
42:43.0
of violating our rights.
42:45.0
And at some level
42:48.0
with the protection
42:50.0
So it's coming out
42:52.0
It's coming out today.
42:55.0
from other survey firms.
42:56.0
And it's important
42:57.0
for us to constantly
43:09.0
yeah, you're right.
43:10.0
It's nuanced, no?
43:13.0
ambivalence there
43:14.0
where analysis has to come in.
43:15.0
But speaking of ambivalence,
43:17.0
this is the other thing
43:18.0
we keep on hearing, no?
43:20.0
approval ratings.
43:21.0
Even their surveys
43:23.0
post-presidential
43:24.0
approval ratings.
43:25.0
Although I find that interesting.
43:26.0
Is it the approval
43:27.0
of his fashion statement
43:28.0
or his rhetorical skills?
43:29.0
But you know what they mean.
43:31.0
may enduring popularity ba siya?
43:33.0
crazy numbers, right?
43:35.0
out of ten Filipinos.
43:36.0
I think no Filipino president.
43:37.0
In fact, I cannot think
43:43.0
Yeah, possibly Lula.
43:44.0
Yeah, I can only think
43:47.0
if he steps down.
43:48.0
Yeah, Modi, yeah.
43:51.0
it's a Modi-Lula level.
43:55.0
some people are saying
43:57.0
parang square that
43:58.0
with the fact that
43:59.0
there's a lot of openness
43:60.0
to toughness on China
44:01.0
which for Duterte
44:06.0
a strong relationship
44:08.0
But surveys also say
44:09.0
that Duterte is very popular
44:11.0
So, how do you reconcile that,
44:14.0
on the ICC issue,
44:15.0
if he's so popular,
44:16.0
why doesn't majority of people
44:17.0
actually agree na
44:19.0
ay isang invasive species
44:20.0
in violation of our sovereignty?
44:22.0
So, this is where,
44:24.0
the surveys are quite ambivalent
44:26.0
there are layers of thinking
44:27.0
going on among our kababayan.
44:33.0
continues to be popular.
44:37.0
he rates very high
44:44.0
the family itself
44:48.0
strong influence.
44:55.0
at least in our internal surveys,
45:06.0
is on top of that list,
45:09.0
it's a survey after survey
45:10.0
that we've come out,
45:11.0
although we haven't
45:16.0
common knowledge.
45:19.0
common knowledge.
45:20.0
She's the number one contender.
45:21.0
Elections were held today.
45:23.0
will be something
45:25.0
is for Sara Duterte
45:28.0
And when you look
45:30.0
except in certain instances
45:31.0
when she's matched up
45:34.0
certain individuals,
45:35.0
but by and large,
45:37.0
it's her election
45:43.0
if elections were held today.
45:44.0
But we all know naman,
45:46.0
Alam naman natin matagal pa
45:48.0
marami pwede magbago dyan,
45:51.0
yung election na yan.
45:52.0
Pero ngayon pa lang,
45:55.0
ma-influence siya
45:56.0
pang Duterte family.
45:57.0
Whether there's a question
45:59.0
endorsement power,
45:60.0
the President's still
46:04.0
there's a big argument
46:11.0
I wanted to mention that.
46:15.0
I really want to emphasize
46:16.0
What's your position
46:22.0
we're not Russia,
46:26.0
we were never a full-fledged
46:30.0
let's be just brutally honest,
46:31.0
during Digong's time,
46:32.0
we were kinda in what I call
46:34.0
And if you look at the
46:36.0
I don't know if you have,
46:37.0
I think there was like
46:39.0
in the one SWS there
46:43.0
it's dangerous to publish
46:44.0
negative opinion about
46:48.0
that clearly tells me
46:49.0
a huge number of Filipino,
46:50.0
at least a huge plurality.
46:53.0
40% can be a president
46:55.0
last time I checked.
46:59.0
they're openly admitting
46:60.0
that they're not 100% sure
47:01.0
if they can be very honest
47:02.0
about what they're saying.
47:05.0
you coming from survey agencies,
47:06.0
you're saying that
47:08.0
undermine the integrity
47:10.0
We had Ronnie Holmes
47:13.0
all the mechanics
47:15.0
they used to make sure na
47:16.0
walang nagbabantay,
47:17.0
walang shadowing,
47:20.0
But at the same time,
47:21.0
what I'm saying is that
47:22.0
even if no one is shadowing you,
47:23.0
even if you are not Putin's Russia,
47:24.0
it's hard to imagine
47:26.0
that the fear of Duterte
47:28.0
did not go with the love
47:32.0
I know I'm getting into
47:33.0
political psychology already
47:34.0
and probably we have to bring
47:35.0
Duterte and Carlos here.
47:37.0
But I think there's a lot
47:39.0
academic literature
47:40.0
on how fear and love
47:42.0
distortionary effect.
47:45.0
a whole list of dictators.
47:46.0
I'm not saying Duterte
47:48.0
but I can give you
47:49.0
a whole list of dictators
47:50.0
with 90% approval rating
47:51.0
which didn't look
47:54.0
And then nung nawala na
47:56.0
suddenly opinions change.
47:59.0
Digong is a dictator.
48:02.0
distortionary effect
48:03.0
or at least has an effect
48:04.0
in terms of approval.
48:05.0
If you cannot beat someone,
48:06.0
rather love that person, right?
48:07.0
If people are dying
48:09.0
you have thousands of EJKs,
48:10.0
you'd rather love this person.
48:11.0
You'd rather not express.
48:17.0
it's something worth studying.
48:18.0
But worth studying?
48:23.0
basically argued this position
48:25.0
maybe three years,
48:39.0
we still have to back it up
48:40.0
with actual data, no?
48:42.0
But it runs against
48:43.0
what we're seeing now,
48:49.0
the numbers of Duterte,
48:51.0
the preference for him
48:54.0
the continuing preference
48:56.0
the next president,
48:58.0
constitutionally,
48:60.0
his endorsement power,
49:02.0
I think people fear him.
49:04.0
He's not the biggest
49:05.0
person to be feared now.
49:10.0
what the first quarter
49:12.0
as far as his numbers
49:18.0
very influential.
49:21.0
these numbers could even
49:23.0
Because of what happened
49:24.0
over the last month or so.
49:25.0
Some people are gonna
49:26.0
take a hit in government.
49:31.0
na hindi naman takot
49:32.0
lahat ng tao sa kanya?
49:34.0
a segment that is.
49:36.0
if people still prefer him,
49:38.0
that he's not in power,
49:40.0
then it's not about fear,
49:45.0
it may be something else,
49:49.0
a paper written by
49:56.0
continue to be high,
50:01.0
people also should look into
50:03.0
why they continue
50:06.0
his administration
50:07.0
despite the various
50:15.0
he ended very badly.
50:17.0
the economy ended
50:18.0
not with development
50:23.0
At the end of his,
50:28.0
Bolsonaro's number
50:35.0
in actually doing
50:36.0
during crisis period.
50:41.0
in the Game of Thrones,
50:42.0
chaos is a ladder.
50:43.0
Chaos is a ladder.
50:46.0
and I think this is where
50:47.0
also disinformation
50:49.0
narratives come in,
50:51.0
lahat na nangyaring
50:58.0
3 million students
51:01.0
And his administration,
51:02.0
made his administration,
51:04.0
he never supported it
51:06.0
And social spending
51:07.0
actually went up.
51:10.0
Digong infrastructure.
51:11.0
He passed structure.
51:12.0
He passed structure
51:13.0
up to the trillions.
51:16.0
went to corruption,
51:18.0
But the thing is,
51:19.0
some work got done.
51:28.0
negative bureaucratic
51:30.0
It's a structural
51:34.0
But the thing is,
51:42.0
nominal trickle down
51:43.0
as far as the economy
51:47.0
free tertiary education.
51:50.0
would have ensured
51:57.0
while we disagree
51:58.0
with this war on drugs,
51:60.0
most of the things
52:02.0
to the president,
52:04.0
in terms of his style,
52:07.0
to do some things,
52:08.0
populist as they are,
52:09.0
expensive as they are
52:10.0
to sustain today,
52:13.0
the current administration.
52:16.0
that are so expensive,
52:19.0
doubling of the salaries
52:22.0
and the implications
52:33.0
that we inherited
52:38.0
look at all of this together,
52:39.0
together with this war on drugs,
52:40.0
which by the way,
52:44.0
the public perception
52:49.0
they have all that study.
52:52.0
when you put all of this together,
52:56.0
to do certain things.
52:60.0
for this administration
53:01.0
because they wanted
53:09.0
was never popular
53:13.0
and the new administration
53:14.0
was writing their
53:24.0
6 out of 10 Filipinos
53:26.0
the administration's
53:28.0
in the West Philippine Sea.
53:35.0
more thorough study,
53:37.0
I see a perfect way
53:38.0
that both of these
53:40.0
could be correct.
53:42.0
let me be absolutely clear.
53:43.0
I disagree with people
53:45.0
this is a totally manufactured
53:50.0
all around the world
53:56.0
that perfectly fits
54:04.0
this is totally fake news.
54:09.0
someone's approval
54:15.0
of other presidents
54:17.0
whether it's Aquino,
54:19.0
But when superlative,
54:21.0
where the fear factor
54:23.0
You get what I'm saying?
54:26.0
It's the boost effect.
54:28.0
It's the endurance
54:29.0
of that popularity.
54:30.0
I cannot separate it
54:31.0
from the fear factor.
54:32.0
That's all I'm saying.
54:33.0
But speaking of the future,
54:34.0
we know that Sara
54:35.0
has been in the lead,
54:37.0
other people like
54:39.0
we've seen some of the
54:41.0
You're putting me
54:45.0
you don't have to answer that.
54:46.0
What I'm saying is,
54:47.0
it looks like a more
54:48.0
competitive field nowadays,
54:50.0
But it also proves
54:51.0
because Tulfo is also
54:52.0
kind of a strongman aura,
54:55.0
it actually proves
54:56.0
that it's a matter
54:59.0
The kind of populism
55:03.0
You do know that,
55:07.0
on a programmatic basis.
55:08.0
It's something that
55:14.0
have to speak up,
55:19.0
it's sometimes irrational.
55:22.0
tertiary education program,
55:23.0
although it's popular
55:24.0
and I won't be very popular
55:25.0
after I say this,
55:30.0
who are millionaires
55:31.0
get free education.
55:36.0
We can't sustain something
55:40.0
that our socialized,
55:41.0
our flawed socialized
55:42.0
education program
55:43.0
or model in the UP
55:45.0
the best possible model
55:47.0
to sustain this program.
55:59.0
we don't deserve this.
56:03.0
One of my students
56:12.0
but there's no way
56:13.0
for them to return it.
56:15.0
become a good citizen.
56:19.0
serving your country.
56:20.0
I know it's very idealistic
56:24.0
That's how I end my classes.
56:25.0
It's really about
56:30.0
is probably more important
56:34.0
As far as governance
56:38.0
it's important for us
56:41.0
to get more engaged.
56:42.0
And I think it starts
56:45.0
with media people
56:47.0
with academics like you
56:50.0
with true knowledge.
56:52.0
I think survey companies
56:55.0
The more empowered people are,
56:57.0
the better we do our work
56:59.0
with the best possible
57:01.0
methods being utilized,
57:04.0
we bring into the thing,
57:06.0
the more that surveys
57:09.0
In the life of our country.
57:10.0
So, this is something
57:12.0
we all have to advocate
57:15.0
as members of organizations
57:21.0
it is what it is.
57:23.0
interesting times,
57:25.0
For the first time
57:35.0
the parochialism,
57:42.0
We have strong players
57:43.0
in the global arena.
57:46.0
The new Cold War.
57:47.0
We're kind of the Berlin
57:48.0
of the 21st century
57:49.0
if I can put it that way.
57:52.0
We're caught in the middle.
57:56.0
It's extremely complex.
57:59.0
entities that are driving
58:01.0
at the domestic level.
58:02.0
And for the first time,
58:03.0
we really experienced,
58:06.0
And they're taking sides.
58:08.0
They're influencing.
58:11.0
to be conscious of this
58:19.0
as far as democracy
58:21.0
And that can only happen
58:26.0
and empower people.
58:34.0
stronger institutions.
58:39.0
OCTA is trying to do,
58:40.0
trying to be a part
58:43.0
and truth-sharing.
58:47.0
in the years to come.
58:50.0
let me put my hand
58:52.0
Let me put myself
59:01.0
it's an illiberal
59:02.0
democratic response
59:07.0
I agree with you on that.
59:09.0
This is not coming
59:11.0
I think it's partly
59:14.0
a desperation vote,
59:17.0
something different.
59:18.0
It's ambivalence,
59:21.0
Marcos win or something like that?
59:22.0
And also the appeal
59:24.0
disciplinary politics,
59:26.0
this whole Singapore model thing,
59:29.0
people have to understand
59:32.0
doesn't necessarily mean
59:33.0
a full endorsement
59:34.0
of what came before it.
59:36.0
the two are connected.
59:37.0
There is a causality there.
59:42.0
I don't want to put you
59:44.0
because you're from
59:47.0
a political scientist.
59:48.0
What do you think
59:49.0
is the challenge now
59:50.0
for the opposition?
59:51.0
Because there's a lot of,
59:53.0
nasaan ang opposition,
59:55.0
That's the basic question.
59:58.0
Where's the opposition?
59:59.0
Somebody has obviously
60:01.0
being the opposition
60:02.0
but are they really
60:09.0
wherever they are.
60:10.0
Wherever they are.
60:11.0
Has to be more mindful
60:12.0
and a little more
60:16.0
And the opposition
60:21.0
of the last six years.
60:24.0
around the values
60:37.0
By all the groups.
60:38.0
Where the country
60:42.0
what are its values,
60:44.0
That have to be protected.
60:47.0
that is what will define
60:50.0
as the opposition.
60:53.0
it doesn't seem clear
61:01.0
And largely because
61:02.0
people have become
61:04.0
people have become
61:10.0
The current dispensation.
61:11.0
But there is a window,
61:12.0
I think you understand
61:15.0
that there is a space,
61:17.0
for progressive politics
61:19.0
And it really has
61:21.0
it has to be disciplined
61:28.0
I know I'm being idealistic
61:30.0
once our politics
61:31.0
begins to be disciplined
61:40.0
And organization,
61:41.0
you need organization.
61:48.0
it's very possible
61:49.0
this administration
61:53.0
it's turning out to become,
61:55.0
it's kind of an irony of sorts,
61:59.0
But that's a Tiglau theory,
62:02.0
this is Aquino 2.0
62:03.0
or something like that.
62:05.0
That's what's happening now.
62:09.0
if the president's wise,
62:13.0
that's the argument,
62:17.0
there's a counter-argument,
62:19.0
it's pretty clear,
62:22.0
it's not very sophisticated,
62:26.0
it has to go down,
62:27.0
go back to values,
62:32.0
with the campaign
62:37.0
That whole historical past
62:40.0
And all that it stood for.
62:49.0
the opposition has to
62:50.0
go back to the roots,
62:52.0
It has to go back
62:54.0
it's been fighting for,
62:57.0
for the 21st century.
63:03.0
it can't be the same,
63:05.0
opposition of 2016,
63:07.0
Iba na yung laruan ngayon,
63:11.0
it's not a hopeless case
63:13.0
because the current
63:15.0
looking for allies.
63:18.0
looking for allies,
63:30.0
But the thing is,
63:31.0
that's what politics
63:35.0
The art of the possible.
63:36.0
And I think there's a space
63:39.0
of this administration
63:40.0
aligning with the yellows.
63:41.0
With the dilawan.
63:44.0
and how do you see,
63:54.0
do you think that the RISA
63:58.0
for the opposition also?
64:02.0
or is it the RISA?
64:08.0
I think to a great extent,
64:10.0
it's the distinct
64:12.0
and how she capture.
64:13.0
But I don't know,
64:20.0
a particular worldview,
64:23.0
a particular style
64:29.0
this administration
64:33.0
presenting a counter-argument.
64:34.0
And that counter-argument
64:35.0
would require them
64:37.0
with the progressives
64:43.0
people like Risa Onteveros
64:45.0
and Paul Dila once.
64:48.0
I think there's a genuine
64:51.0
because of the situation
64:53.0
the unique situation
64:55.0
where we have to deal
64:60.0
a puppet master here.
65:04.0
and the administration
65:07.0
to help each other
65:09.0
in the 2025 elections.
65:11.0
these are numbers,
65:13.0
are showing that,
65:19.0
that counter-argument
65:20.0
has to be made stark,
65:23.0
to our electorate.
65:24.0
Sino yung pro-China,
65:25.0
sino yung anti-China,
65:26.0
sino yung pro-WPS,
65:33.0
sino yung pro-human rights,
65:35.0
These things can be,
65:36.0
can be made clear.
65:41.0
find its legitimacy
65:42.0
if the administration
65:44.0
progressive forces
65:45.0
who have a history
65:48.0
advocating these values.
65:49.0
And I think there's
65:50.0
an opportunity for that
65:51.0
in the 2025 election.
65:52.0
If the administration
65:54.0
they're not gonna go
65:55.0
with their regular slate.
65:56.0
They're gonna be,
65:60.0
who will shock us,
66:05.0
we're gonna be shocked.
66:07.0
this is Philippines.
66:15.0
the tactical alliance
66:16.0
because it would mean
66:17.0
preventing certain forces
66:18.0
from coming into power again.
66:21.0
thank you very much
66:23.0
to Professor Ranjit Rai
66:26.0
Department of Political Science
66:30.0
the President of the OCTA,
66:33.0
which has been doing very,
66:38.0
I'm very glad that we had,
66:41.0
parang wala lang yung one hour sa atin
66:45.0
and I also want to let the people know
66:47.0
these are my personal opinions,
66:48.0
not opinions of OCTA
66:49.0
or the university I belong to.
66:52.0
and I'm very happy that,
66:54.0
you invited me in the show.
66:58.0
have more banter and discussion
67:02.0
this is a good warm-up.
67:07.0
hopefully we'll have
67:08.0
more of you gracing our,
67:10.0
little show here to discuss
67:11.0
next big surveys.
67:16.0
the trend lines are very important
67:18.0
political analysis.
67:19.0
Maraming salamat,
67:24.0
I know you're very busy.
67:25.0
You're getting texts and all of that.
67:26.0
I'm sure maraming talaga tayo.
