00:23.1
Tsaka yung sinasabi, yung intentional, yun yung ano eh,
00:27.2
sinabi ng mga Filipino fishermen, intentional na mas sira,
00:29.8
pero cyanide fishing, it's a, you know, an ancient, like a, di naman ancient,
00:33.7
pero old problem, old method of fishing.
00:37.8
So is Scarborough Shoal becoming a geopolitical flashpoint once again?
00:42.8
As always, when we need some hard answers,
00:44.8
we call in our fellow One News host, Richard Hedarian,
00:47.3
who's also a political analyst and senior lecturer at the UP Asian Center.
00:53.0
So hirap naman nun, that's a big, hard question to answer, no?
00:56.7
How are you, Richard?
00:59.8
Sana meron din kayong vlogger-influencer as one of my...
01:07.5
We'll add it next time.
01:09.9
But, yeah, your thoughts on what's going on at Scarborough at Bajo de Masinloc.
01:16.3
I mean, we were tackling two stories just now.
01:18.9
First, potential.
01:20.2
I underscored the word potential.
01:21.9
Potential cyanide fishing.
01:23.8
And then also, the dangerous maneuvers, which happened several days ago.
01:29.8
Supposedly, by the Chinese Coast Guard and also the floating barriers,
01:34.0
which as of tonight, as far as we know, has been taken down.
01:36.9
But still, again, these, like, small incidents.
01:39.7
What do you make of it?
01:41.6
Yeah, I mean, unang-una, I think this is a good reminder
01:44.2
that we're facing multiple ticking time bombs there in the West Philippine Sea.
01:48.1
Of course, the Ayungin Shoal, Second Tonga Shoal,
01:51.1
took a lot of our attention over the past six months or so
01:53.3
because of the multiple incidents, the water canoning,
01:55.8
the disruption of our resupply mission,
01:57.3
our hopes to fortify our position there.
01:59.8
Without triggering any kind of conflict with China.
02:02.8
But let's not forget, there's also the RID Bank situation.
02:05.8
We still don't know what are we going to do about it.
02:07.4
Are we going to develop the resources there?
02:08.9
And then, not to mention, Scarborough Shoal, no?
02:12.0
Which is the beginning, essentially, of a new era in Philippine foreign policy.
02:15.7
I mean, after the incident in Scarborough Shoal in 2012,
02:18.1
the Philippines has not been the same.
02:19.6
In terms of our foreign policy, in terms of domestic discussion,
02:22.0
in terms of awareness of what's happening in the West Philippine Sea.
02:24.0
Now, going back to this, of course, I defer to the officials
02:28.1
to confirm whether...
02:29.8
What's being reported is the case.
02:31.7
But if ever it turns out true,
02:34.9
I mean, it's not totally shocking or surprising, right?
02:38.1
Because remember, back in the day, during the Duterte administration,
02:41.4
there were reports by some media channels and journalists
02:44.1
about Chinese maritime forces or fishermen
02:48.5
doing something very destructive to our environment.
02:51.0
In fact, there was a study by the Marine Sciences Institute in UP
02:56.0
a few years ago that put the ecological environmental damage,
02:59.8
conservatively, at hundreds of millions of dollars annually.
03:04.5
So I think this is just the...
03:06.3
If ever true, or even if it's not true,
03:08.8
the reality is that we're facing a very difficult condition
03:11.3
during the Scarborough Shoal.
03:12.5
If I'm not mistaken, you mentioned Vietnam also may have been involved in this.
03:15.7
I think that's another thing that we have to keep in mind
03:17.6
because the Vietnam aspect is very important.
03:20.1
As you know, President Marcos was just in Vietnam the other week.
03:23.8
We discussed maritime security cooperation.
03:26.0
We discussed building a common front within ASEAN and beyond ASEAN.
03:29.8
We discussed building a common front within ASEAN and beyond ASEAN.
03:32.5
But we also know that Vietnam also has some overlapping claims with us.
03:36.2
And the Vietnamese fishermen have been entering our waters.
03:39.0
And there were some deadly incidents in the past, I think, 2017.
03:42.2
There was an incident between the Philippine Navy and the Vietnamese fishermen.
03:45.5
So it's not only China, it's also Vietnam.
03:47.3
Except it's not at the same level.
03:48.9
The kind of harassment we're facing from China,
03:51.3
the 9-line claim of China is incomparable to what Vietnam is doing.
03:54.9
So what that means is, I won't be surprised,
03:56.9
some pro-China elements in the Philippines and propagandists,
03:59.8
will try to exaggerate any Vietnamese angle, possibly,
04:03.0
to what's happening in this Carborosal or beyond.
04:05.1
So that's the other thing I'm also watching out for right now.
04:08.9
Well, for now, Noritza, just to clarify for all our viewers,
04:12.5
it was the statements of the Filipino fishermen in Bajo de Masinlo.
04:16.2
They said, allegedly, it was Chinese and Vietnamese fishermen.
04:20.2
And I think authorities are busy trying to verify that
04:24.3
as well as the cyanide fishing accusations as well.
04:28.3
But what do you make of that?
04:31.5
Is that kind of China taking a step back and saying,
04:34.6
you know, well, if people do see a barrier,
04:37.0
maybe they'll really pin us as the bad guys here?
04:39.9
Was it something like that, maybe?
04:42.0
Yeah, I think the Chinese are still scratching their head
04:44.3
and scrambling for a response to the Philippines
04:46.3
kasi itong proactive transparency initiative ng Philippine Coast Guard,
04:50.5
itong mga madal-dal natin, mga kaibigan,
04:53.7
mga spokesmen sa Philippine Coast Guard,
04:55.3
this is something very shocking to China.
04:58.2
I think they're being struggling.
04:59.8
I think even the Twitter account of Philippine Coast Guard was hacked or something
05:03.6
and there was an accusation that some friends maybe from the other side were involved in this.
05:08.6
So I think China is really struggling.
05:10.4
In fact, I saw some of the commentaries in China recently in some of their newspaper
05:13.5
where some Chinese experts are suggesting that it's time for them to show their sword.
05:19.6
That's the terminology that they're using.
05:21.4
So I'm absolutely certain that there are very vehement debates
05:25.7
within the Chinese maritime forces establishment
05:29.8
to best deal with the Philippines
05:31.0
because they're looking for their own Goldilocks approach, right?
05:34.4
They want to be tough and strong enough to impress their own people
05:37.0
and this way the Philippines...
05:38.5
At the same time, I think the Chinese also are wondering,
05:40.5
I mean, you don't want to give the Marcos administration even more reasons
05:43.8
to fortify its relationship with the United States
05:46.3
and give more reasons to Japan, Australia, and the U.S. to come to the picture.
05:50.1
So it's a very delicate balancing act also on the part of China.
05:53.6
But one thing that I think all of us have to keep in mind is that
05:56.7
not the black swan,
05:59.5
but the gray rhino here,
06:02.9
is the role of militia forces
06:05.3
and some Chinese fishermen who may not necessarily be doing things
06:09.5
on the command of the Chinese military or officials.
06:13.5
So there's some rogue elements there,
06:15.6
including perhaps the one who was behind the Reed Bank incident in 2019.
06:19.7
If you remember, we still don't know exactly what happened there.
06:22.4
It looks like a Chinese militia was involved in that
06:25.1
and we don't know how much of command structure following a compliance is happening there.
06:29.5
One thing we're very worried about is crazy rogue activities by militia forces
06:35.3
or let's say overzealous fishermen from other rival claimants there.
06:40.5
And it takes just one lethal incident or fatal accident for things to get out of control,
06:46.3
especially given how tense things are right now.
06:48.9
Now, PBBM urging, continuing, urging BFAR and PCG's presence in the waters,
06:56.5
in our waters, in our territory.
06:59.3
Prof, this will steer tension.
07:01.7
Tama ba na magsalita siya ng gano'n on his part right after the recent incident?
07:07.4
Well, I think this is a new era for the Philippines in terms of maturation.
07:13.2
I mean, let's be honest.
07:14.1
Ang gulo ng foreign policy natin.
07:16.1
Minsan, besi tayo ng China.
07:17.5
Minsan, ayon natin sa China.
07:19.5
So now, finally, I think the Philippines is trying to draw the line and say
07:23.5
we have no problem with diplomacy with China,
07:25.6
which is exactly the position of President BBM.
07:27.4
He has had multiple conversations.
07:29.4
He's Xi Jinping and Chinese leadership over the past year or so.
07:32.4
But there has to be red lines.
07:33.8
And the Philippines has to gain the respect of China, of course, grudgingly,
07:38.3
by standing its ground.
07:39.7
It's not going to be riskless,
07:41.0
but it's part of the maturation of our maritime strategy in this part of the world.
07:46.0
I mean, if you look at all our officials from National Security Council,
07:49.1
from the Philippine Coast Guard, among others,
07:50.6
of course, as a West Philippine Sea so-called experts,
07:53.3
I deal with these people.
07:54.2
And I'm very impressed by their learning curve.
07:56.6
And I'm also impressed by how proactive they have been.
07:59.0
Again, this is a new era for the Philippines.
07:59.2
This is not riskless.
08:00.8
But let's not forget, we are doing this because we are being bullied.
08:04.9
So let's not gaslight ourselves.
08:07.6
You know, this is the problem.
08:08.5
A lot of strategic gaslighting is happening.
08:10.8
Philippines is being blamed when, in fact, we're just defending what is ours.
08:14.6
And China's nine-dash line has no basis in international law.
08:18.2
The maturation of our West Philippine Sea strategy.
08:22.3
But if you think the strategy in the past several years has been confusing,
08:27.2
what's one thing you'd like to see clearly?
08:29.2
Let's pretend that the President is watching right now.
08:32.6
What's one thing you would ask for?
08:34.3
Oh, he is watching. I'm just kidding.
08:35.9
No, no, no. I mean, for me,
08:38.2
there's still room for improvement.
08:41.9
I don't want to lose the opportunity of interviewing somebody.
08:44.2
I'm just kidding.
08:44.9
No, I mean, the thing is,
08:46.6
you know, sometimes, you know, some officials, I think, are kind of,
08:50.0
maybe they have the midterm elections in mind, right?
08:52.8
I think there's some officials there who are kind of compensating
08:55.7
for their total silence during the Duterte years.
08:58.4
Because, okay, I'm not going to name names.
09:00.7
But I think, you know, medyo hinay-hinay lang tayo.
09:02.8
Let's leave this to the DFA.
09:04.4
Let's leave this to National Security Council.
09:06.3
Let's leave this to the Philippine Coast Guard.
09:08.1
Let's leave this to the President, right?
09:09.7
And as I said before, you know, I'd rather have the DFA and the President
09:12.9
take a lead rhetorically on this.
09:14.9
And as much as I think National Security Council and PCG are doing a good job.
09:17.8
But I think the problem sometimes is that there are a lot of people
09:20.0
who are trying to, I don't know, it kind of comes off as grandstanding, right?
09:23.7
And compensation for their past silence.
09:26.4
But, again, for me,
09:27.9
it's part of the maturation process, right?
09:30.4
You're going to make mistakes.
09:31.5
There's going to be some, you know, excesses here and there.
09:34.9
But I'm generally optimistic about the direction of Philippine policy.
09:38.4
Having said that, as I always said, you have to prepare for contingency.
09:42.7
Things could get ugly.
09:43.6
And I won't be surprised.
09:44.5
China will indeed show its sword, kumbaga, you know, metaphorically,
09:48.5
if not figuratively at some point,
09:50.4
just to test how much the consensus in the Philippines holds.
09:54.3
Because the consensus, as you talk also to our good friend,
09:58.8
if you look at almost all key surveys,
10:00.3
they show that majority of Filipinos want us to take a tough stance against China.
10:04.1
I'm sure there's some in China saying,
10:06.0
tignan nga natin kung matapang talaga sila,
10:07.9
e-test nga natin yung limits nila.
10:09.7
So this is where things are going to get tricky.
10:11.4
And that's why we have to be prepared,
10:12.6
not only operationally,
10:14.0
but also in terms of propaganda.
10:15.3
Because a lot of our pro-China friends in the Philippines
10:17.5
are ready to exaggerate anything to instill fear and diffidence
10:22.7
into the heart of the Filipino people.
10:24.3
I'm not saying it will work,
10:25.7
but I'm saying we have to be prepared for that.
10:27.2
I get what you're saying.
10:28.7
Because sometimes all that noise just does nothing
10:31.4
but muddy the water, essentially, right?
10:33.6
So it sounds like we're all over the place.
10:36.7
We're going to have to leave that there for now.
10:38.7
But as always, thanks so much for your insights.
10:41.3
That was Richard Haydarin, political analyst
10:43.3
and senior lecturer at the UP Asian Center,
10:45.9
One News host, and also social media influencer.
10:50.5
See, I am the social media influencer and blogger.
10:53.9
Thank you so much.
