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But it's another also...

To prove it.

Yeah, that's right.

I mean, did you actually see the blasted detonated cyanide?

Although sabi nga ng BPA and also PCG na if you take a look at the coral reef in Bajo de Masinok,

talagang history, siya damaged na.

But yun nga, wala pang evidence na talaga nakikita mo ba yung Vietnamese fishermen

na nag-hagis ang cyanide there.

So that they have to get.

Tsaka yung sinasabi, yung intentional, yun yung ano eh,

sinabi ng mga Filipino fishermen, intentional na mas sira,

pero cyanide fishing, it's a, you know, an ancient, like a, di naman ancient,

pero old problem, old method of fishing.

So is Scarborough Shoal becoming a geopolitical flashpoint once again?

As always, when we need some hard answers,

we call in our fellow One News host, Richard Hedarian,

who's also a political analyst and senior lecturer at the UP Asian Center.

So hirap naman nun, that's a big, hard question to answer, no?

How are you, Richard?

I'm good.

I'm good.

Sana meron din kayong vlogger-influencer as one of my...

Slacks.

Slacks.

Slacks.

We'll add it next time.

But, yeah, your thoughts on what's going on at Scarborough at Bajo de Masinloc.

I mean, we were tackling two stories just now.

First, potential.

I underscored the word potential.

Potential cyanide fishing.

And then also, the dangerous maneuvers, which happened several days ago.

Supposedly, by the Chinese Coast Guard and also the floating barriers,

which as of tonight, as far as we know, has been taken down.

But still, again, these, like, small incidents.

What do you make of it?

Yeah, I mean, unang-una, I think this is a good reminder

that we're facing multiple ticking time bombs there in the West Philippine Sea.

Of course, the Ayungin Shoal, Second Tonga Shoal,

took a lot of our attention over the past six months or so

because of the multiple incidents, the water canoning,

the disruption of our resupply mission,

our hopes to fortify our position there.

Without triggering any kind of conflict with China.

But let's not forget, there's also the RID Bank situation.

We still don't know what are we going to do about it.

Are we going to develop the resources there?

And then, not to mention, Scarborough Shoal, no?

Which is the beginning, essentially, of a new era in Philippine foreign policy.

I mean, after the incident in Scarborough Shoal in 2012,

the Philippines has not been the same.

In terms of our foreign policy, in terms of domestic discussion,

in terms of awareness of what's happening in the West Philippine Sea.

Now, going back to this, of course, I defer to the officials

to confirm whether...

What's being reported is the case.

But if ever it turns out true,

I mean, it's not totally shocking or surprising, right?

Because remember, back in the day, during the Duterte administration,

there were reports by some media channels and journalists

about Chinese maritime forces or fishermen

doing something very destructive to our environment.

In fact, there was a study by the Marine Sciences Institute in UP

a few years ago that put the ecological environmental damage,

conservatively, at hundreds of millions of dollars annually.

So I think this is just the...

If ever true, or even if it's not true,

the reality is that we're facing a very difficult condition

during the Scarborough Shoal.

If I'm not mistaken, you mentioned Vietnam also may have been involved in this.

I think that's another thing that we have to keep in mind

because the Vietnam aspect is very important.

As you know, President Marcos was just in Vietnam the other week.

We discussed maritime security cooperation.

We discussed building a common front within ASEAN and beyond ASEAN.

We discussed building a common front within ASEAN and beyond ASEAN.

But we also know that Vietnam also has some overlapping claims with us.

And the Vietnamese fishermen have been entering our waters.

And there were some deadly incidents in the past, I think, 2017.

There was an incident between the Philippine Navy and the Vietnamese fishermen.

So it's not only China, it's also Vietnam.

Except it's not at the same level.

The kind of harassment we're facing from China,

the 9-line claim of China is incomparable to what Vietnam is doing.

So what that means is, I won't be surprised,

some pro-China elements in the Philippines and propagandists,

will try to exaggerate any Vietnamese angle, possibly,

to what's happening in this Carborosal or beyond.

So that's the other thing I'm also watching out for right now.

Well, for now, Noritza, just to clarify for all our viewers,

it was the statements of the Filipino fishermen in Bajo de Masinlo.

They said, allegedly, it was Chinese and Vietnamese fishermen.

And I think authorities are busy trying to verify that

as well as the cyanide fishing accusations as well.

But what do you make of that?

Barrier removal.

Is that kind of China taking a step back and saying,

you know, well, if people do see a barrier,

maybe they'll really pin us as the bad guys here?

Was it something like that, maybe?

Yeah, I think the Chinese are still scratching their head

and scrambling for a response to the Philippines

kasi itong proactive transparency initiative ng Philippine Coast Guard,

itong mga madal-dal natin, mga kaibigan,

mga spokesmen sa Philippine Coast Guard,

this is something very shocking to China.

I think they're being struggling.

I think even the Twitter account of Philippine Coast Guard was hacked or something

and there was an accusation that some friends maybe from the other side were involved in this.

So I think China is really struggling.

In fact, I saw some of the commentaries in China recently in some of their newspaper

where some Chinese experts are suggesting that it's time for them to show their sword.

That's the terminology that they're using.

So I'm absolutely certain that there are very vehement debates

within the Chinese maritime forces establishment

to best deal with the Philippines

because they're looking for their own Goldilocks approach, right?

They want to be tough and strong enough to impress their own people

and this way the Philippines...

At the same time, I think the Chinese also are wondering,

I mean, you don't want to give the Marcos administration even more reasons

to fortify its relationship with the United States

and give more reasons to Japan, Australia, and the U.S. to come to the picture.

So it's a very delicate balancing act also on the part of China.

But one thing that I think all of us have to keep in mind is that

not the black swan,

but the gray rhino here,

is the role of militia forces

and some Chinese fishermen who may not necessarily be doing things

on the command of the Chinese military or officials.

So there's some rogue elements there,

including perhaps the one who was behind the Reed Bank incident in 2019.

If you remember, we still don't know exactly what happened there.

It looks like a Chinese militia was involved in that

and we don't know how much of command structure following a compliance is happening there.

So actually...

One thing we're very worried about is crazy rogue activities by militia forces

or let's say overzealous fishermen from other rival claimants there.

And it takes just one lethal incident or fatal accident for things to get out of control,

especially given how tense things are right now.

Now, PBBM urging, continuing, urging BFAR and PCG's presence in the waters,

in our waters, in our territory.

Sa tingin mo ba?

Prof, this will steer tension.

Tama ba na magsalita siya ng gano'n on his part right after the recent incident?

Well, I think this is a new era for the Philippines in terms of maturation.

I mean, let's be honest.

Ang gulo ng foreign policy natin.

Minsan, besi tayo ng China.

Minsan, ayon natin sa China.

So now, finally, I think the Philippines is trying to draw the line and say

we have no problem with diplomacy with China,

which is exactly the position of President BBM.

He has had multiple conversations.

He's Xi Jinping and Chinese leadership over the past year or so.

But there has to be red lines.

And the Philippines has to gain the respect of China, of course, grudgingly,

by standing its ground.

It's not going to be riskless,

but it's part of the maturation of our maritime strategy in this part of the world.

I mean, if you look at all our officials from National Security Council,

from the Philippine Coast Guard, among others,

of course, as a West Philippine Sea so-called experts,

I deal with these people.

And I'm very impressed by their learning curve.

And I'm also impressed by how proactive they have been.

Again, this is a new era for the Philippines.

This is not riskless.

But let's not forget, we are doing this because we are being bullied.

So let's not gaslight ourselves.

You know, this is the problem.

A lot of strategic gaslighting is happening.

Philippines is being blamed when, in fact, we're just defending what is ours.

And China's nine-dash line has no basis in international law.

The maturation of our West Philippine Sea strategy.

I love that.

But if you think the strategy in the past several years has been confusing,

what's one thing you'd like to see clearly?

Let's pretend that the President is watching right now.

What's one thing you would ask for?

Oh, he is watching. I'm just kidding.

No, no, no. I mean, for me,

there's still room for improvement.

I don't want to lose the opportunity of interviewing somebody.

I'm just kidding.

No, I mean, the thing is,

you know, sometimes, you know, some officials, I think, are kind of,

maybe they have the midterm elections in mind, right?

I think there's some officials there who are kind of compensating

for their total silence during the Duterte years.

Because, okay, I'm not going to name names.

But I think, you know, medyo hinay-hinay lang tayo.

Let's leave this to the DFA.

Let's leave this to National Security Council.

Let's leave this to the Philippine Coast Guard.

Let's leave this to the President, right?

And as I said before, you know, I'd rather have the DFA and the President

take a lead rhetorically on this.

And as much as I think National Security Council and PCG are doing a good job.

But I think the problem sometimes is that there are a lot of people

who are trying to, I don't know, it kind of comes off as grandstanding, right?

And compensation for their past silence.

But, again, for me,

it's part of the maturation process, right?

You're going to make mistakes.

There's going to be some, you know, excesses here and there.

But I'm generally optimistic about the direction of Philippine policy.

Having said that, as I always said, you have to prepare for contingency.

Things could get ugly.

And I won't be surprised.

China will indeed show its sword, kumbaga, you know, metaphorically,

if not figuratively at some point,

just to test how much the consensus in the Philippines holds.

Because the consensus, as you talk also to our good friend,

Professor Rife,

from OCTA,

if you look at almost all key surveys,

they show that majority of Filipinos want us to take a tough stance against China.

I'm sure there's some in China saying,

tignan nga natin kung matapang talaga sila,

e-test nga natin yung limits nila.

So this is where things are going to get tricky.

And that's why we have to be prepared,

not only operationally,

but also in terms of propaganda.

Because a lot of our pro-China friends in the Philippines

are ready to exaggerate anything to instill fear and diffidence

into the heart of the Filipino people.

I'm not saying it will work,

but I'm saying we have to be prepared for that.

I get what you're saying.

Because sometimes all that noise just does nothing

but muddy the water, essentially, right?

So it sounds like we're all over the place.

We're going to have to leave that there for now.

But as always, thanks so much for your insights.

That was Richard Haydarin, political analyst

and senior lecturer at the UP Asian Center,

One News host, and also social media influencer.

Thank you.

See, I am the social media influencer and blogger.

Thank you so much.