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00:00.0
Okay. Alright. Ito na ito na ito. Pag-usapan natin. Finally! Ronald! Ito na! Yung minamahal mong oposisyon! Nagparamdam na! Finally!
00:09.9
Salamat naman na medyo nakapinalayan na si Senator Leila de Lima. So medyo I think Senator de Lima since coming back, she really injected a lot of energy into the opposition, particularly the Liberal Party.
00:23.2
I think Liberal Party is not the same like before. I mean, still, there's a long way to go before they go back to their quote-unquote glory days.
00:30.5
But ito na! So over the past week or so, Ronald, habang hindi tayo nag-usap, inisip ko anong ginagawa mo habang looking at the full moon, at marami kang ibang mga interviews.
00:41.6
Opposition has been making, ano na, has been kind of on the rolls. Statements, announcements here and there. Of course, ETSA coming in.
00:48.4
And just days before the ETSA anniversary, ito na.
00:53.2
So it's Bam Aquino, Francis Pangilinan, and Chelle Jocno, who are officially so far the three senatorial candidates.
01:01.9
So I'm glad na hindi lang popcorn ang ginagawa ng oposisyon. And smartly, smartly, they've realized they have to try to contest this.
01:08.6
So what are your first thoughts before we go into the brass tacks?
01:13.2
It's been a few months. May effort na pagsama sila. Dahil si Bam kasi nag-resign sa Liberal Party.
01:19.8
Tapos kasama sila ni Chelle Jocno doon sa Kaya Natin Party. Tapos si Kiko na sa Liberal Party.
01:28.6
Tapos nung nakalabas si Laila, kinuha siya as spokesperson. Si Sen. Riz Honteberos naman, siya yung parang nagbubuo nung big tent para magsama.
01:39.6
So yung first step, nagawa na. The first baby step. Nagsama na yung si Bam at si Kiko plus Chelle.
01:47.8
Tapos sabi ni Laila, kinukumbisi nila si Lenny kung pwede siyang sumama doon sa slate.
01:52.9
Kung meron ka ganyang apat, so hindi naman mga pushover yan.
01:57.1
Hindi naman mga pushover. Ang pinakamahina dyan si Chelle, pero malaki yung in-increase niya from 3 million to 10 million votes.
02:05.6
Yung first round niya at yung second round.
02:07.7
Yung trajectory niya.
02:08.8
So yung trajectory niya is going up. Si Bam at si Kiko are former senators. So hindi naman sila mga pushover.
02:16.9
Kahit medyo sa survey ay nasa labas pa sila noong 12. So magandang move yan.
02:24.2
Ikalawa ay pinag-usapan natin doon sa previous episode, medyo nabubuhay yung EDSA spirit.
02:32.0
So maganda itong template, maganda itong foundation going into the midterms.
02:37.8
Lalo na mukhang hindi pa naman patay yung pink wave noong 2022.
02:43.9
The 15-16 million votes na nakuha ni Lenny.
02:46.9
Yung huge mobilizations na nag-climax sa Makati sa meeting de avance with 1.2 million people.
02:53.9
And most of these are hindi hakot. Mga volunteers ito. You have 700,000 sa Rally sa Pasig. You have 800,000 sa Rally sa Pasay.
03:06.2
Hundreds of thousands nationwide. So ito yung bahagi ng EDSA spirit. Itong mga mobilization na ito.
03:13.9
Of course, historic yung week.
03:16.9
Ito yung win ni BBM at saka ni Sarah, which is expected because of six years of Duterte, which remained very popular.
03:26.1
Pero you cannot count out the pink and the yellows. They're still there.
03:33.3
At ito nga, itong nangyari sa EDSA celebration is a good template.
03:38.4
At ikatlo, na hindi directly connected, pero merong dotted lines.
03:45.4
Itong survey halimbawa sa IDSA.
03:46.9
I look at that as part of the EDSA spirit against impunity.
03:55.4
Ibig sabihin, nakakalungkot ng panahon ni Digong na parang everybody was supporting Tokhang.
04:02.2
Pero ngayon, parang nagigising yung mga tao na that was wrong at there has to be something else.
04:08.7
At ito yung posible, itong emerging...
04:16.9
Criticism against impunity ay bahagi ito ng EDSA spirit.
04:21.4
At pwede itong i-harness ng mga pink and yellow going into the midterms.
04:26.8
So, if organized well.
04:28.8
So, itong slate na ito na incomplete pa lang, hopefully, hindi mangyari katulad doon nangyari sa 2019 na na-zero.
04:41.1
Hopefully, ay yung kahit pumasok...
04:46.9
Kung makapasok sila sa bandang last nung 12, at least makapasok.
04:50.9
Hindi ko aasahan na sila ay magta-top.
04:54.2
Pero makikita mo may movement eh.
04:56.4
Halimbawa, Aimee Marcos, which was in the previous survey, nasa top 5.
05:01.1
Ay ngayon, nasa last 2.
05:03.1
Si Aimee, buwaba ba siya?
05:08.4
Dahil nab-discuss natin kasi both sides ni-reject siya.
05:12.7
Hindi, hindi ko alam saan ko siya pupulutan.
05:15.0
Kung sa dalawang ilog, yung bangka mo...
05:16.9
Baka lumubog dahil mahahate eh.
05:19.0
Di ba yung sinasabi natin?
05:20.7
So, huwag ka rin masyado masobrahan ng laro.
05:24.6
Tapos, kung sakaling darating yung ICC sometime this year,
05:29.6
baka maapektuhan some of the candidates of the Duterte camp.
05:34.8
Bato, Bonggo, at kung sasama si Digong, maapektuhan yan.
05:39.6
So, you have 3 less winnable candidates dun sa top 12.
05:46.0
So, pwedeng lumuwag eh.
05:48.0
May mga factors na pwedeng mangyari.
05:50.3
How you maximize this emerging anti-impunity base.
05:58.3
Paano mo ma-harness yung dati na pink wave less than 2 years ago.
06:03.3
At paano mo madala sa logical conclusion.
06:08.7
Halimbawa, itong mga kakasuhan ng ICC.
06:14.0
Kung sakaling makakaroon ng perfect...
06:16.0
...perhaps may tsansa yung mabubuo nung pink-yellow slate.
06:24.8
Hindi ko alam kung sino pa yung hahatakin nila para sumama.
06:27.5
Ako, duda ako if Lenny will join.
06:31.1
Local government.
06:34.4
I think LGU could be also good.
06:35.5
And apparently, si Laila, walang balak tumakbo.
06:38.2
Si Drilon, mukhang retired na talaga.
06:40.7
E si Sunny Trillanes.
06:42.3
May talagang gusto niya.
06:43.7
Well, si Sunny talagang nakafocus sa local.
06:46.0
Ah, talagang LGU na siya this time.
06:52.0
Ako naman, kahit naman dagdagan mo yung slate.
06:55.3
Halimbawa, meron kang tatlo-apat na may fighting chance.
06:59.5
Tapos, meron kang apat na kahit medyo malabong manalo.
07:07.5
Pakilala mo muna.
07:08.6
Prepare para sa 2028.
07:10.5
For lack of a better example, parang si Risa.
07:16.0
At least, ah, kahit hindi ka malalo sa first run mo, pero magmarka ka.
07:22.3
Ah, in a way, parang the Luke Espiritu framework.
07:26.2
Dahil si Luke, naka 3 million votes.
07:28.2
Masyadong malayo doon sa mga kasama niya.
07:30.8
Na hindi man lang lumampas ng 1 million.
07:34.2
Pero, nangyari yan, dahil naging disruptor siya sa isang presidential debate.
07:39.1
Ibig sabihin, no, in just one debate, no, pwede kang madagdagan ng 3 million votes.
07:44.8
Kung maganda yung handa.
07:46.0
Kung maganda yung handling mo, no?
07:47.4
Yun yung sinasabi ko na...
07:49.2
Zero to zero, yeah.
07:50.7
In the world of social media, it can happen.
07:55.1
You can have a fast burn.
07:57.4
You can have a fast burn.
07:59.7
Before we talk about 2025, let's discuss 2020, um, sorry, yung midterms, 2019.
08:11.2
Obviously, to be fair, naintindihan natin, the structural limitations for oppositions was really critical.
08:16.0
You know, we're getting reports back then na if yung LGUs daw nag-host ng opposition leaders, baka malagay sila sa narco list.
08:23.6
But there were reports like that, eh.
08:24.8
I mean, things were really crazy.
08:26.3
Given na may incumbency advantage, to put it mildly, alam na ang tao what we're referring to in midterm elections.
08:32.7
Pero yung panonindigong, nakakatakot kasi kung nag-host ka daw ng opposition or something, baka malagay ka sa narco list.
08:38.6
At alam natin back in the day, that could have been a death sentence even.
08:41.4
So, some opposition, Ocho Derecho...
08:46.0
Candidates would say they couldn't even get hosted and access certain area.
08:49.8
Kaya nga sabi ko, even the democratic nature of those elections were highly questionable.
08:53.6
So, we can go on and on about structural limitations, you know, all the odds that they had to face.
08:59.8
But having accepted that, saan siguro nagkakulang?
09:03.7
I mean, do you think they could have still done better than ending up with literally zero, right?
09:08.8
I mean, for the first time in 81 years, kahit isang ininal, was that inevitable?
09:14.4
Was that like totally determined?
09:16.0
I'm not sure. Pero may tatlong factors dyan eh. Hindi lang yung chilling effect ng EJK.
09:23.2
Hindi lang yung chilling effect ng Tokhang, which was at its height noong 2019.
09:28.7
Diba? At its height siya.
09:31.0
Andun din yung buhay yung revolutionary government niyan.
09:36.0
Niyang panahon na yan, 2019.
09:37.9
Dyan pinopropose yung revolutionary government.
09:40.3
So, some of the major players ay hindi sigurado.
09:43.6
So, paano kung magkaroon ng revolutionary government?
09:46.6
Tapos tinulungan namin itong oposisyon, no?
09:49.0
Iyon yung problema eh, no?
09:50.9
Kaya talagang nag-hemorrhage yung Liberal Party and all other parties na pwedeng makipag-coales sa kanila
09:58.2
because of the REVGOG framework.
10:01.2
At pinakamalaking elephant in the room,
10:05.4
DIGOM was entertaining 90% approval rating at that time, no?
10:10.3
Yan yung napaka...
10:15.1
Yeah, preponderant na talaga siya.
10:17.2
Yeah, historic yan, no?
10:18.2
Talagang yan yung pinakamataas yung kanyang popularity, no?
10:23.3
Yan yung pinakamataas yung kanyang punisher image, no?
10:26.9
So, the Tokhang, the chilling effect, then the revolutionary government still on the table, no?
10:33.2
And then the huge historic popularity of Duterte.
10:39.8
Tapos, at the same time, defensive yung oposisyon, no?
10:43.6
Defensive yung oposisyon at that time, no?
10:46.7
Meron kang vice president, Lenny Robredo, na na-demonize ng gusto, no?
10:51.6
Meron kang senador na pinakulong, no?
10:55.9
You have a sitting senador na nakakulong, di ba?
10:58.9
Si Laila de Lima, na na-demonize din.
11:00.8
Meron pa daw mga sex tapes na lahat, lahat binatomo sa kanya, no?
11:06.0
Kaya, that was the worst of time for any oposisyon, no?
11:11.3
For any oposisyon.
11:14.6
Perhaps Mar Rojas or BAM could have survived, no?
11:19.7
Pero, hindi nila nakuha yung tamang timpla, no?
11:24.0
Dahil nagulat din sila, eh.
11:25.9
Nagulat sila sa Tokhang.
11:27.3
Thousands are being killed, no?
11:30.2
Not even in the dictatorship na nangyari yan, no?
11:33.4
And then the revolutionary government framework on the table.
11:37.5
And then the very popular president.
11:40.6
Kaya, nag-fumble din.
11:42.1
And then, they don't know how to face that triple whammy, no?
11:47.9
That, yan yung pala yan, no?
11:51.0
Shock and awe sa nangyari.
11:52.6
Balagang shock and awe yung kay Digong, eh.
11:55.6
Tapos, hindi rin ganun ka-close.
11:58.0
Hindi rin nagtulungan si Bama tsaka si Mar because they don't like each other.
12:02.1
They don't like each other.
12:03.4
At kasama sila sa Ocho Derecho.
12:05.0
And all the rest sa Ocho Derecho are practically neopites.
12:11.0
You have Samira Gutok, no?
12:13.8
You have Shell Jokno, diba?
12:15.7
You have this election lawyer.
12:18.0
No, ito, yung karamihan doon sa slate are not veterans.
12:22.9
Are not political veterans, no?
12:24.5
Nobody even knows them.
12:26.4
Yan yung pala, eh.
12:27.4
Ang dalawa lang talaga doon sa Ocho Derecho yung sana may fighting chance.
12:31.0
Si Bama at saka si Mar.
12:34.4
But even the two of them don't like each other, no?
12:38.6
Eventually, nag-resign si Bama.
12:41.0
Sa Liberal Party, no?
12:42.7
Pero part nung kanyang pag-resign ay yung kanilang dynamics ni Mar.
12:49.9
Kaya hindi ko alam, looking back, Richard, hindi ko alam kung papano sila ayusin ito.
12:58.0
I doubt kung makakahanap ka ng magandang campaign strategy in 2019.
13:03.8
Even realizing in retrospect what happened, no?
13:08.8
Dahil, paano mo babaguhin yung chilling?
13:11.0
Yung effects sa population ng Tokhang.
13:13.0
Where thousands are being killed.
13:14.8
And 2019 was the height of Tokhang.
13:17.7
Tapos meron ka pang nakaamba na revolutionary government.
13:22.8
Tapos a very popular president as never before.
13:25.9
More popular than Marcos.
13:29.2
Marcos never reached 90%.
13:31.2
Well, we don't know.
13:33.4
Wala pang established false Asian.
13:35.0
Sabagay. Sabagay, no?
13:36.5
I mean, phenomenon talaga si...
13:41.0
But phenomenon si Digong.
13:45.3
Talagang influencer talaga yan eh.
13:48.0
So, even looking back, Richard, hindi ko alam kung what might have been.
13:53.2
What might have been at that time.
13:54.8
But what does that say, Ronald?
13:55.8
Because essentially what you're saying is they were not ready for someone like Digong.
14:00.5
I mean, I completely understand.
14:04.1
Brazil had Bolsonaro.
14:06.5
You know, Orban in Hungary.
14:08.9
There were versions of him in Czech Republic.
14:12.7
But if you look at a lot of these countries, hindi sila na zero, right?
14:15.7
I mean, the opposition would fight back.
14:17.1
And in some cases, in Czech Republic, they won.
14:20.2
Trump kept on losing midterms elections, re-elections.
14:23.9
In Brazil, Bolsonaro lost eventually.
14:26.4
Lula came back to power.
14:27.8
So, what's going on there?
14:30.1
Well, Lula, the PT has a huge base.
14:34.9
They were in government, no?
14:37.9
With two presidents.
14:41.1
Dalawang two-term siyata siya.
14:42.9
Tapos yung si Dilma was one-term.
14:45.4
So, hindi sila push over.
14:47.3
Tapos kahit natalo, kahit natalo yung kanilang kandidato,
14:51.8
ang laki ng kanilang base sa local government.
14:54.3
Sao Paulo, Rio, Brasilia, etc.
14:58.5
Hindi sila nawala.
15:00.5
They were there in huge chunks of the local government.
15:03.9
Hindi katulad nung Yellow na wipe out.
15:08.6
Naglipatan kay Digong.
15:11.0
Sa Brazil, nandun sila.
15:14.8
At hindi malaki yung kanilang pagkatalo.
15:19.6
Yun yung siguro different.
15:21.5
Sa atin, winner take all.
15:26.0
This is a winner take all society.
15:29.2
Pag nalali yung presidente, everybody gravitates.
15:32.1
Follow the leader, yeah.
15:33.3
Walang real party.
15:36.0
If the winner is the bad person, he takes all also.
15:38.3
Sa Brazil, you have several leftists.
15:40.9
Sa Brazil, you have several leftist parties.
15:43.9
The PT, the Social Democrats, merong left-wing party na kahit maliit ay intact.
15:52.3
So wala tayong gano'ng ideological parties here.
15:55.2
You have some small ones, like Bayan Muna, Akbayan.
15:58.9
But these are in the margins, diba?
16:01.7
Of course, not anymore dahil may senador na yung Akbayan.
16:04.9
Pero in the local government, wala.
16:08.7
Unlike, alimbawa, the PT.
16:10.9
They have mayors, they have governors, no?
16:13.9
They have 80% of the trade unions, no?
16:18.5
I mean, speak of trade unions, I mean, the PT of Brazil is also proud of their manufacturing base, right?
16:24.7
I mean, this is an area.
16:26.3
Philippines has a very weak manufacturing base, unlike South Korea or Brazil.
16:29.5
And if you look at these countries, because malaki manufacturing base, there's a big room for the left to organize, diba?
16:36.0
I mean, Lula was a labor union leader himself, diba?
16:40.2
Perhaps there's...
16:40.8
But our industrialization system is so divisive.
16:43.6
Unlike those countries.
16:44.6
In one factory, you can have several federations killing each other, no?
16:50.6
Sa Brazil, meron kang industry-wide unions, meron kang regional unions.
16:56.5
You have huge conglomerations of unions.
17:00.2
Sa atin, divisive, eh.
17:01.8
How many federations do we have?
17:06.6
Fighting each other regularly for local elections?
17:10.2
So, our industrialization system, hindi lang yung sinasabi mo na manufacturing base, our industrialization system is so divisive.
17:20.2
But what is kaya the reason of that?
17:22.7
I mean, structurally, we can talk about the Philippine political economy, weak manufacturing base, I don't know the nature of FDI.
17:29.0
But is there also a cultural aspect here in terms of...
17:31.4
Kasi yung itong, you put two Filipinos, you get three organizations.
17:35.0
We see it everywhere, including the US, right?
17:37.7
Diba na alam mo yung dami na...
17:40.2
Now, in the 1950s and part of the 1960s, you still have CLO, you have huge federations, no?
17:48.4
That was destroyed, no?
17:50.6
Partly by our American friends, no?
17:53.3
During the Hook Rebellion, diba?
17:55.6
At hindi na siya naibalik, no?
17:58.2
Nag-create ka na ng isang industrialization system na hindi na naibalik yung unified trade unions ng 1950s, after the war, no?
18:07.0
And before the war, no?
18:09.2
Yun yung hindi naibalik yung ganyang klaseng essence, no?
18:12.6
At nagkaroon ka na ng low-intensity conflict, nagkaroon ka na ng mga authoritarian leaders, no?
18:18.6
Semi-authoritarian leaders, which prevented organizing.
18:22.4
Which prevented organizing.
18:23.8
Until the present, no?
18:26.9
And of course, tama rin yung sabi mo, yung culture.
18:30.5
Yeah, there's something there.
18:32.1
Na-inculcate na yung culture of division, no?
18:36.2
Pero before the war, and after the war,
18:39.2
you have such huge political parties.
18:42.8
Yung Democratic Alliance won sa Central Luzon, diba?
18:46.3
Kahit nandyan bastion niya ng mga warlords, nanalo sila, diba?
18:51.1
In large chunks of Central Luzon.
18:53.4
Tapos meron kang trade unions na malalaki, diba?
18:58.3
In the 50s and part of the 60s, no?
19:01.3
Pero that was destroyed.
19:03.5
At hindi na nakabangon.
19:04.5
That's a very good point.
19:05.9
It is not true na the left was always weak or...
19:09.2
Manufacturing labor base was always weak.
19:10.7
There was a time, kaso dinurug sila ng Philippine and America, diba?
19:14.4
Of course, this is Cold War, fear of Soviet Union, communism, etc.
19:19.5
Having said that, I mean, it's been like, what, seven years?
19:22.2
It's already 2024.
19:23.8
Obviously, the world is different.
19:25.5
The manufacturing sector is not as strong as before.
19:27.5
But, you know, I just came from the US.
19:29.9
There, the labor union is fighting back, especially in the automotive sector.
19:33.0
You had a situation whereby, last year, both Biden and Trump were there at the rallies of automobile.
19:39.2
Unions, and eventually, the automobile unions won, right?
19:42.9
Amid the electrification of the industry and all of that, which has effect on the labor sector.
19:47.5
So, in a way, labor unions are coming back, including the heartland of new liberal capitalism, which is the United States.
19:54.0
So, I wonder, like, if we cannot do it in Brazil, we cannot do it...
19:57.2
Pero, Richard, 85% of our economy are SMEs.
20:02.7
These are small to medium-scale enterprises, no?
20:05.6
It's the same in most developing countries.
20:07.6
Wala tayong scale.
20:09.2
At ito, mga sweatshops to, ah.
20:11.3
These are sweatshops, no?
20:13.3
Ito yung pinakamahirap i-organize, no?
20:16.5
Ito yung mga less than 100 people, di ba?
20:19.3
Iyon yung problema rito, eh.
20:22.3
Iyon yung kaibahan, halimbawa, dun sa industrial base sa US, or even Latin America, di ba?
20:30.6
They have huge unions, no, in the mining sector.
20:35.3
We don't have unions in the mining sector here, di ba?
20:39.2
So, Ronald, realistically then, I mean, I think we laid out yung deeper reasons.
20:45.2
Kasi, di ba, yung, you get a lot of shallow, nonsensical analysis.
20:48.7
There's at least, it's good people are getting an idea of how do you do structural analysis.
20:52.4
You look at the big forces that shape, you know, labor sector, labor organization, unionization, etc.
20:59.7
So, I'm glad that people are getting a little bit of a snippet of, you know, how to properly discuss these issues.
21:04.4
Hindi pwede sa minyo, ay, mahina lang sila.
21:06.1
Like, you cannot explain things like that.
21:08.5
Ang mahina walang leader.
21:09.2
But having said that, I mean, in the 21st century, for 2028, for beyond 2025, having learned all of the lessons supposedly.
21:19.7
Kasi, actually, there's a quote that comes to mind about the French Revolution.
21:22.6
Something like, they forgot nothing, but they also learned nothing.
21:27.3
Something like that about the Bourbons, right?
21:29.8
Like, wala silang nakalimutan, pero wala silang natutunan.
21:33.5
So, are we in that situation or by, you know, it's not like we're forgetting the past.
21:39.2
Richard, gusto kong pag-usapan ito deeper.
21:42.1
Kaso, baka kakulangan 30 minutes or 1 hour para pag-usapan ito.
21:46.0
I consciously caught you there because I know this could go down.
21:49.0
Pwede tayo mag-alat ng session just for this.
21:52.0
Dahil, ang daming variables yung pag-uusapan mo rito.
21:57.0
Hindi lang yung political economy, hindi lang yung culture ng mga Pilipino,
22:02.1
hindi lamang yung intervention ng mga foreign elements.
22:06.7
Ang daming pag-uusapan.
22:08.5
Pero gusto kong pag-uusapan yan because I give lectures about this topic.
22:13.5
But usually, 2 to 3 hours yung discussion dito.
22:18.6
Let's do a proper episode on that.
22:19.7
Kasi ako, I'm a big fan of Perry Anderson's writings on Brazil, right?
22:24.1
How Brazil fell apart.
22:25.2
I have actually a copy of the book there.
22:26.7
I think one of our fans actually.
22:29.5
I was there several times.
22:32.0
Nung first run ni Lula.
22:34.1
Nung second run ni Lula.
22:35.8
Four times dito ako, di ba?
22:37.2
He lost three times.
22:40.1
Actually, five times siya tumakbo, sorry.
22:41.6
Twice na nalo, thrice na talo.
22:43.5
Tapos, ang lalaki.
22:44.9
Talagang malalaki yung trade unions dyan, no?
22:47.2
Ingit na ingit ako.
22:49.0
Ingit na ingit ako, no?
22:51.5
For a while, sa Japan, yung Soyo was so huge, no?
22:56.6
Pero in the 70s and 80s, lumihit din sila.
23:03.1
So, that's a different story naman, no?
23:08.5
I had a bad episode with Cecilia.
23:09.4
Maybe I'll ask Cecilia to come in.
23:10.6
Tatlo na lang tayo.
23:12.1
Kasi we need someone who's also familiar with Brazil.
23:15.2
As in, someone who's based in Brazil.
23:16.8
And compare natin itong...
23:18.2
This is a very important issue.
23:19.7
I think balikan dapat natin.
23:21.0
Because masyadong shallow yung analysis, eh.
23:23.9
I mean, we can go on bashing the dilawan forever.
23:26.8
But my point is, okay, let's also discuss the left, right?
23:29.5
Ang daming kulo din doon, eh.
23:34.8
That's what I'm trying to understand.
23:35.8
Bakit walang gel, right?
23:37.4
Something that holds the...
23:38.3
The bigger opposition together.
23:40.1
An umbrella coalition opposition together.
23:42.1
But having said that, like, just short, ah.
23:44.6
I mean, because, you know, we can go on and on about this.
23:46.9
We have to have separate discussion.
23:47.8
But, Ron, like, what do you think is the ideal strategy?
23:52.3
Short, medium term, and long term?
23:54.3
For the opposition?
23:55.0
Well, una, paliwanan ko lang, Richard, no?
23:57.4
Nung nanalo si Pinoy, no?
24:00.2
They are a tricycle party.
24:02.1
They can fit in one tricycle.
24:04.4
The liberals, di ba?
24:05.6
Nung nanalo siya, everybody joined the liberal party.
24:08.3
So, you were expecting na large chunks of this will remain.
24:14.7
Pero, it didn't, eh.
24:16.0
Dahil nga, because of the nature of our party system, no?
24:19.5
Yung tricycle party ng liberal, nangyari uli, no?
24:26.8
Dahil naglipatan yung mga sumama sa liberal.
24:29.1
They're not real liberal party members.
24:32.2
Nung panahon ni Pinoy, di ba?
24:34.0
Yun yung naging problema.
24:35.4
Kaya, ang bilis din magbago.
24:37.3
From the ruling party to a marginalized party.
24:41.7
At a very insignificant party noong 2019.
24:44.8
But that's what happened to PDP Laban too.
24:46.9
Ilan na lang ang PDP Laban.
24:48.1
Nung nagsimula si Digo, PDP Laban, nag-iisa lang ang kongresista nila.
24:54.8
Pero nung nanalo si Digo, everybody joined the PDP Laban.
24:59.0
Eh, ngayon, wala na namang laman yung PDP Laban.
25:02.5
Wala na namang laman ngayon ng PDP Laban.
25:04.6
So, yun yung problema.
25:06.8
Isang mahalagang elemento nito is our party system.
25:11.6
Mahina yung otso-diretsyo dahil naubos sila.
25:15.9
Dahil everybody went to the ruling party.
25:22.7
So, obviously connected again yung ban-wagoning effect.
25:26.5
Presidential ban-wagoning.
25:27.7
Doon sa lack of real political parties.
25:29.8
But yun, the reason I'm trying to have,
25:32.0
hindi naman, hindi pa deep tong conversation.
25:34.1
I just want people to go beyond just cultural,
25:37.4
Ang Pinoy ay ganito lang.
25:38.6
I mean, kasi kung cultural arguments,
25:40.2
tapos nang usapan.
25:41.3
Di hopeless kaysa tayo.
25:43.2
That's it. Uwi na tayo.
25:44.4
I want to do a bit deeper than that.
25:46.3
But at the same time,
25:47.3
tanggap din natin,
25:48.2
meron talaga tayong fractiousness,
25:51.2
which bedeviled us from the Ilustrado time.
25:53.5
I mean, just look at yung away ng mga Ilocano Brigade
25:55.9
nila Juan Luna versus Aguinaldo Cavitismo.
25:59.6
I mean, this whole thing has been there with us.
26:04.6
130 years na medyo.
26:07.3
medyo mag-level up tayo.
26:09.6
But most revolutions naman may ganyan eh.
26:14.5
at a certain moment,
26:16.5
meron kang ideology
26:18.9
at meron kang leader
26:20.5
na kumakatawan ng ideology na yun
26:25.8
Kulang sa gel talaga.
26:28.4
wala lang ang ideology
26:29.4
na wala pa yung leaders.
26:31.2
Yun yung problema.
26:34.3
Why aren't we more ideological
26:37.6
political system?
26:41.6
Kasi ang dami mga third world countries
26:43.0
na mas mahirap pa sa atin.
26:44.2
You still see ideological driven
26:45.9
mass-based parties.
26:46.8
Like India, right?
26:48.1
I mean, India is a poorer country
26:49.2
than the Philippines.
26:50.5
you see many parties.
26:52.1
I'm no fan of Congress Party.
26:53.6
I'm definitely no fan of the BJP.
26:55.4
But you have strong
26:56.8
ideological driven parties.
26:58.4
But the real ideological parties
27:01.1
like the Democratic Alliance
27:04.7
Even when they were very strong,
27:06.3
sa kanilang unang eleksyon.
27:09.6
They won in large chunks
27:11.3
of Central Luzon.
27:12.3
And yet, they were destroyed.
27:13.7
They were put in prison.
27:23.2
ng ideological parties
27:25.6
Because of repression.
27:27.7
Because of repression.
27:29.6
Unlike, kalimbawa,
27:32.7
the social democratic parties
27:38.0
They've been there
27:39.1
since the modern state
27:42.4
At the very start.
27:44.1
At the very start,
27:48.9
even during Nazi time,
27:51.8
yung social democratic party.
27:57.9
wala magsusurvive dito
27:59.0
na ideological party.
28:01.6
mainstream ideological party.
28:03.1
Even the liberals
28:05.8
an ideological party
28:07.7
90% of their members
28:11.4
nung hindi na sila,
28:12.5
wala na sila sa gobyerno.
28:14.9
I mean, just look at their,
28:16.3
yung mga platforms
28:17.3
sa mga parties natin.
28:19.1
it's like love, love, love.
28:21.2
motherhood statements.
28:23.5
candidate number, ano,
28:33.5
love, love, love.
28:34.4
yung sayo mo kasi,
28:40.5
As well as the leadership.
28:48.1
may dagdag pa dyan eh.
28:53.1
the socialist party
28:55.3
The communist party
29:00.7
These are folk heroes.
29:01.9
For lack of a better example,
29:03.2
parang yung mga Sandinista.
29:05.8
Yung mga pasa yan,
29:06.7
from generation to generation.
29:08.6
These are family.
29:10.5
yung political party
29:12.5
are family based.
29:16.3
pag pumunta ka sa Europe,
29:18.2
yung kanilang lolo
29:24.0
Pasa-pasa yan eh,
29:25.2
sa kanilang mga anak.
29:27.8
It's a family tradition.
29:29.0
Family is communities.
29:31.6
Yun yung nga po nila eh.
29:33.4
na-cut yan sa atin.
29:35.8
ganyang klaseng tradition.
29:40.4
when I was organizing
29:41.3
in Central Luzon,
29:44.7
May ganun pang remnants.
29:47.7
oh, yung kanilang lolo,
29:49.7
Yung kanilang tatay,
29:54.4
May ganun pang remnants.
29:55.5
Pero naputol na yan
29:57.1
in the 70s and 80s.
30:01.0
Which is sad, no?
30:03.9
political parties
30:05.7
about ideologies.
30:06.8
They should be about
30:07.6
families and communities.
30:10.1
There should be a life world there.
30:13.3
I get what you're saying.
30:15.2
yun yung natira sa atin.
30:16.5
At nakikita ko pa rin
30:22.7
the tradition of struggle
30:34.5
is because natakot ako
30:35.4
this can go on forever.
30:36.8
my suggestion would be
30:38.1
let's have an episode
30:38.9
on Isabelo de los Reyes.
30:41.3
And we can play it from there.
30:42.6
I think that would be
30:45.8
the lost golden era
30:47.2
of the progressive movement
30:48.3
in the Philippines.
30:48.4
Diba sabi mo nga nung
30:49.4
several months ago
30:52.0
During episode natin,
30:53.5
ibalik natin yung
30:54.3
sum of our heroes.
30:56.1
we have to have like
30:57.4
let's start as in
30:58.2
from the beginning,
30:59.0
Isabelo de los Reyes
30:59.9
and then trace the trajectory
31:01.6
of the progressive movement
31:02.8
in the Philippines.
31:04.2
just to close on that.
31:08.6
ang trade union movement.
31:10.9
palahon ni Amado Hernandez
31:15.0
so we can go from
31:15.7
Isabelo de los Reyes
31:16.5
to Amado Fernandez.
31:17.9
that's a very good discussion.
31:19.6
I think we have to have
31:21.2
proper discussion for that
31:21.9
to give due credit
31:24.0
to the legacy of these people
31:25.6
kasi mahabang usapan yun.
31:27.3
I don't want them to just
31:28.7
in this discussion.
31:29.8
Thank you very much
31:30.6
Secretary Ronald Llamas.
31:33.2
mariretag na tayo
31:34.3
kasi hindi na usap.
31:37.3
we had this conversation
31:38.3
kasi I'll be honest,
31:40.5
enough people are hearing
31:41.9
this kind of conversation.
31:43.1
This is something
31:44.0
in academic circles,
31:48.4
in progressive world.
31:50.1
important discussion.
31:51.2
And it's a mainstream
31:51.9
discussion in Brazil,
31:54.3
in many developing countries.
31:56.3
bago tayo makatapos, no?
31:59.9
I don't have my feet
32:02.2
Nung nag-organize ako
32:10.3
Pinapakita sa akin
32:40.1
pero nagtapos yan
32:41.2
sa kanilang generation.
32:47.7
yung ganong klaseng
32:50.4
from one generation
32:53.2
Yun yung nakakalungkot.
32:58.7
pwedeng ipasa yung
33:00.3
iba na yung mundo
33:02.2
Yung mga libro mo
33:05.5
nasa internet na,
33:08.7
Pero nang hiinayang ako,
33:11.2
when I was organizing,
33:13.5
nadudurog na yung mga
33:15.7
Noong kanilang mga
33:22.7
behind the ideology.
33:23.9
Ideology cannot be
33:25.5
Dapat may komunidad.
33:31.2
I think we should
33:31.9
do this with Leloy
33:35.5
So I reviewed it.
33:37.0
This is just pre-print
33:38.9
He has a fantastic book,
33:40.0
Empire of Austerity.
33:42.4
itong bad monetary policy,
33:44.5
anti-development state natin.
33:46.3
In ways that I haven't seen
33:47.3
by anyone done before.
33:51.8
he's also a fan of,
33:53.2
practically all of the guys
33:54.3
who know a thing or two
33:57.0
Isabelo de los Reyes.
33:58.8
because Locano si Isabelo.
34:04.1
What a brilliant guy.
34:05.7
Let's discuss him
34:06.5
on a separate episode.
34:07.9
Let's bring also Leloy
34:10.0
Bumalik na ba siya sa US?
34:11.6
No, he's still in Berkeley.
34:13.7
I thought he was here
34:14.7
nung hanggang January.
34:17.9
So I hope to catch up
34:18.7
with him also soon
34:19.5
naman dun sa kabila,
34:21.4
But in the meantime,
34:25.1
especially when I brought
34:26.0
the Brazil example,
34:27.4
The PT and all of that.
34:29.0
I immediately saw
34:32.5
you want to discuss it.
34:33.3
It was there a lot of times.
34:35.2
It's a very exciting case.
34:38.2
Bolsonaro is being tried
34:39.4
for potential treason
34:40.6
because he was trying
34:41.5
to trump his way.
34:44.4
big things happening
34:45.2
in Brazil as we speak,
34:46.8
Pero lalaki pa rin
34:47.6
ng mga rally niya,
34:49.4
mga pro-Bolsonaro.
34:51.2
just as we speak,
34:52.6
lots is happening in Brazil.
34:54.2
it's a beautiful country,
34:55.2
beautiful culture,
34:55.9
beautiful people,
34:56.5
but a lot to also watch
34:57.5
about their politics.
35:02.3
folks to pay more attention
35:04.7
Hindi kami nagpapakyut lang.
35:07.9
kung gusto natin magpakita
35:09.8
we'll talk about French politics.
35:14.7
we can talk about
35:16.4
Pero kung gusto natin
35:21.0
Brazil lang talagang
35:25.5
really appreciate this,
35:26.3
I could see how you're animated.
35:30.1
for these things.
35:31.6
Siguro gawa tayo ng series,
35:34.0
Some learning lessons
35:36.3
from other podcast episodes, eh.
35:38.1
there's this really podcast,
35:39.1
I love Empire series.
35:41.2
like Roman Empire,
35:43.4
and then they have mini series.
35:45.7
Discovery of Indian Food
35:47.8
You know what I'm saying?
35:48.5
so I can do something like that.
35:49.9
Let's do a mini series na lang.
35:52.6
will appreciate that.
35:53.8
let's go to your favorite topic
35:56.7
mga Duterte-Tesulid.
35:57.8
I just want to shortly
35:59.3
before we go to our
36:00.6
favorite president,
36:02.7
matatrol na naman,
36:04.8
Our very traveled...
36:07.3
hindi na ako makapag
36:08.2
sa kanyang Magellan Jr.
36:10.1
kasi baka ma-accused din ako
36:13.2
pinapayaran na ng
36:14.0
taxpayers ng ibang bansa.
36:15.8
Hindi sa ikong bansa.
36:18.3
my conscience is case.
36:19.2
Salamat, Sir Ronald Llamas.
36:25.7
Obrigado in Portuguese.
36:27.0
Obrigado, obrigado.
