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00:00.0
Alright, good morning, good evening everyone, kung saan kayo sa mundo ngayon.
00:04.9
Thank you very much for joining us for this latest episode.
00:07.9
As I promised, ito na, pag-usapan natin ng mga issues na we discussed more in generic terms
00:13.2
in past episodes, as you remember, dun sa episode natin, including with former Senator Trillianes,
00:19.7
we discussed the issue of AFP modernization.
00:22.6
I also had a number of pieces recently dun sa itong $36 billion over 10 years of AFP modernization
00:29.4
program, but as they say, amateurs discuss strategy, experts discuss logistics, or something
00:38.5
So, in that regard, I thought of a perfect person who we also had on our podcast in the
00:46.3
past, and of course, also I had the pleasure of also having him on my own television program
00:50.8
sa Signal TV, TV5.
00:52.3
Thank you very much, Professor Ong, Admiral Ong, for joining us.
00:56.4
Good evening, Richard.
00:57.7
Good morning here in Manila.
01:02.0
Let's get the ball rolling.
01:04.8
Yeah, I mean, first of all, what is your general impressions of itong announcement na we're
01:12.6
going to put aside, what, 2 trillion pesos over the next 10 years, or at least that's
01:17.0
the plan, for Third Horizon?
01:19.8
In fact, I think the term they're using is Re-Horizon 3, pagdating sa revised AFP modernization,
01:26.1
which former President and the late President Aquino committed.
01:29.4
I think the government offends more than a decade ago.
01:31.7
You know, what are the, what is the good, the bad and ugly, if I can put it that way?
01:36.3
I'm or what are, what are your general impressions of audit first, Admiral, before we go into
01:42.6
Number one, the good side of it is finally where we have a manifestation of commitment
01:47.9
of the national government to support your modernization of our forces of the Philippines.
01:53.6
It's been a long time forthcoming.
01:55.3
We have a lot of things to catch up in terms of capability.
02:11.6
the modernization
02:16.5
various concerns.
02:18.8
West Philippine Sea
02:38.9
but you're already
02:42.5
like this example
02:58.8
So that's the good part.
03:01.7
it's still early pa
03:10.5
or are there areas
03:13.4
and clarifications
03:14.4
from our officials?
03:16.7
Well, not exactly
03:20.3
the supply chain issue.
03:32.5
of the cartridges
03:45.6
at yung logistics
03:50.2
More particularly
04:10.5
and this is arising
04:11.9
observations natin
04:16.5
now in the Red Sea
04:24.6
for sophisticated
04:48.8
less sophisticated
04:59.2
supply chain issue
05:08.4
We need to rethink
05:15.3
strategic problems.
05:49.9
think asymmetrically
05:54.6
tactical problems
05:56.5
here in the world.
06:03.8
Azerbaijan-Armenia
06:36.3
three submarines,
07:04.0
three submarines?
09:10.3
actually criticizing
09:13.8
nasyadro expensive.
09:44.8
already complicates
11:30.7
into negotiation,
12:22.9
sila yung mag-operate
12:33.0
or yung industrial
13:00.8
defense establishment
13:55.6
in plain language,
14:27.9
For the Philippines
14:29.3
seven archipelagic
14:43.8
yung archipelago mo
15:14.3
yung archipelagic
15:20.1
capability development.
15:25.6
Is there a kind of
15:26.8
I don't know if you
15:28.2
like a little bit
15:30.5
Can you lasagna it?
15:41.9
threat that we're
15:50.8
certain capability
16:26.1
actually basically
16:33.0
yung capabilities
20:52.4
maraming pa tayong
21:22.6
And alam mo naman
21:26.9
counter-propaganda.
22:53.2
programs already?
23:23.7
counterinsurgency
23:32.8
counterinsurgency
25:45.8
air defense system
26:15.9
Ratetan yung mga.
26:23.5
some of these things
26:24.1
that many thought
26:25.4
could be game changers.
26:27.6
we saw in the initial
26:29.6
invasion of Russia
26:30.5
how some of the systems
26:31.6
were very effective.
26:32.7
What is your take
26:36.3
This is more in the realm
27:18.0
ship-to-sail system
27:41.3
of the conventional
28:27.1
autonomous suicide
28:31.7
in the Middle East,
29:33.5
the semiconductors
33:38.0
learning from us.
33:38.8
They learned from us.
34:06.7
some factors here
34:16.5
is that they have
34:23.7
advanced weapon systems
34:24.7
which President Jokowi
34:25.9
discussed when he visited
34:28.7
I'm not sure if the
34:29.7
Philippines is in that
34:31.1
but in terms of our
34:37.2
of a better term,
34:37.7
are there oligarchs
34:38.5
there in the Philippines
34:41.0
contributor here?
34:47.6
pretty modernized
34:53.1
a version of that?
35:10.1
It's not profitable.
36:36.0
It's much cheaper
36:39.1
national government
39:01.6
already discussed
39:06.8
na nakaka-develop
39:08.0
military-industrial
39:24.5
Kaya timitingnan ko
39:29.8
rising developing
40:45.3
When you graduate,
40:48.0
Philippine Science
41:00.3
that's up to you.
41:06.2
you have to go back.
41:07.1
Something like that.
41:34.1
kailangan patulang
41:59.3
engineering nila yun.
42:02.8
reverse engineering,
42:03.6
that means you have
42:10.4
pag-copy mo nung ano.
42:13.9
Puro reverse lang.
42:15.4
Puro reverse lang.
42:17.0
Puro reverse lang.
42:19.6
kaya makita mo na
42:21.7
sa kanila ngayon.
42:31.5
president nila ngayon.
42:34.9
They're now supplying
42:40.2
is one of their biggest
42:45.1
they're actually,
42:47.2
yun yung tinasabi kong
42:49.7
they started with
42:53.5
kinapacitate nila
42:55.9
sa global market.
42:58.5
but do you think,
43:01.5
how should I put it?
43:04.3
these countries are known
43:05.0
for really proactive
43:06.0
industrial policy,
43:09.0
We can have a long
43:09.5
conversation over that.
43:11.8
Because there's some people
43:12.7
that are asking questions here
43:13.6
about, for instance,
43:14.2
yung steel industry nat
43:15.4
and how depressing
43:16.1
things have turned.
43:17.3
I know the Gokong Waste,
43:18.9
are quite involved
43:19.6
in the steel industry
43:20.4
and they're not doing too bad.
43:21.8
I think there are two or three
43:22.7
steel industry companies
43:24.8
in the Philippines
43:25.4
who have been defying
43:26.3
all sorts of odds.
43:28.5
also underestimating
43:29.6
our private sector's
43:30.4
capability to engage?
43:31.5
Increasingly sophisticated
43:35.9
or industrial practices,
43:37.5
potentially defense
43:38.8
industry practices
43:40.5
Magaling sila sana eh.
43:41.5
Paggawa ng kondominium,
43:46.7
you want to move up
43:47.9
the ladder, right?
43:53.2
industrial-based,
43:54.2
merong supporting
43:55.4
to factor that in.
43:59.0
you mentioned about steel.
44:02.9
and ano pa rin eh,
44:03.9
yung components of steel.
44:10.4
What is the problem?
44:13.0
if you want to revive
44:13.8
yung steel industry,
44:15.6
I'm not an expert
44:16.6
on steel industry.
44:18.9
parang it's much cheaper
44:21.2
to get it from abroad
44:22.2
rather than developing
44:25.0
that's a challenge.
44:27.1
willing to offset
44:32.9
just to make sure
44:35.0
your own steel industry,
44:39.0
a national government.
44:46.0
if it's more expensive,
44:49.0
to my shipbuilding
44:52.9
everything is sourced
44:56.3
yung vulnerability
44:56.9
ng supply chain mo.
44:59.2
Like, for example,
45:02.1
produce this aircraft
45:04.0
because yung chip nun
45:10.9
Thank you for that,
45:12.8
I mean, the reason
45:13.4
I'm also asking this is
45:14.3
I just want to also
45:20.7
and Marine Engineering,
45:22.6
how you understand
45:23.3
this issue of industrial policy?
45:24.8
I mean, I had other guests
45:27.1
industrial policy,
45:28.2
development, et cetera.
45:29.1
So, I just want to
45:29.9
see where this is
45:35.5
yung question ko ulit
45:36.3
dun sa asymmetric
45:37.7
the Philippine-US Alliance.
45:39.0
Do you think the Philippines
45:39.9
should also develop
45:40.6
as a kind of militias
45:43.8
Yung mga kunyaring
45:45.8
do you think we have to
45:46.7
tapatan sila in their own game
45:48.2
or that's very dangerous
45:49.3
because, you know,
45:49.8
you're just giving them
45:50.5
more excuse to escalate
45:51.5
the situation and dominate?
45:54.4
but it didn't work for us.
45:57.1
it's a system issue.
45:58.7
We don't have the same
46:04.1
the base that we need
46:07.1
is not the same as China.
46:08.7
So, hindi siya sustainable.
46:14.6
major fishing companies
46:17.5
do not actually fish
46:19.2
in the South China Sea.
46:20.1
Doon sila sa Pacific.
46:22.2
Doon sila nakadeploy.
46:23.8
for us to divert them
46:25.7
to South China Sea.
46:28.5
we have to subsidize
46:30.1
their operations here.
46:36.3
kuminista nga sila eh.
46:40.3
yung mga citizens nila
46:42.7
to perform these missions.
46:45.5
But, hindi naman natin
46:51.0
fishing community
46:55.4
pag nangyari yan,
46:56.1
may compensation yan.
46:57.0
So, you're now going to
47:04.0
auxiliary military
47:10.9
can we go to the issue
47:12.8
Philippine-US alliance?
47:18.0
with other countries,
47:19.1
best lessons we can get
47:20.2
from other developing countries.
47:21.8
Pero ang gusto mong pag-usapan dito,
47:24.4
when it comes to our,
47:25.8
I mean, after all,
47:28.5
Ukraine didn't have
47:29.6
any kind of alliance
47:31.4
And let's be honest,
47:32.7
tumulong ang West
47:35.9
they showed resolve.
47:37.2
I think had the Ukrainians
47:38.4
not shown resolve,
47:40.1
tapos na ang usapan,
47:41.0
wala pang one week,
47:42.4
Na-decapitate na yung
47:43.6
buong leadership nila.
47:45.1
It's only when they realized
47:46.4
may laban itong mga Ukrainians
47:47.9
at yung mga laban
47:48.6
ng mga Ukrainians,
47:49.2
they began to invest in them.
47:50.6
So, the West was not just
47:52.0
throwing money out of
47:53.6
or throwing money
47:54.5
at a sinking hole.
47:56.2
They were also assessing
47:57.1
how far Ukrainians
47:58.5
were willing to fight for that.
47:59.6
And as we speak here
48:00.6
dito sa US Congress,
48:03.9
should they continue
48:06.0
Now, speaking of that,
48:07.5
Philippine-US alliance,
48:08.5
what do you think
48:13.2
division of labor dito?
48:16.0
I say in terms of
48:16.6
strike capabilities,
48:17.9
The Americans have that
48:18.9
because, you know,
48:19.7
I was just talking to
48:22.3
one of the conversation
48:23.1
is should the Philippines
48:24.5
counter-strike capability,
48:25.9
the ability to hit
48:26.8
yung mga base nila
48:32.2
areas na in-occupy nila
48:38.5
Parang sa boxing yan.
48:40.4
If you have this range,
48:41.4
you can counter-punch
48:43.2
right to get near to you.
48:44.8
Or should we just
48:47.9
counter-strike capability
48:49.4
and then focus tayo
48:50.1
dun sa proactive defense?
48:52.4
what is the optimal
48:53.8
balance we're looking at
48:56.0
division of labor?
48:57.0
Should things go ugly
49:04.0
There's such thing as
49:09.5
So, there's such thing as
49:10.3
airspace management.
49:12.1
There's also a need to
49:14.6
in terms of conflict.
49:15.5
Para hindi kayo magbunguan.
49:17.5
Hindi kayo magbunguan
49:20.6
lahat ng nasa kanan
49:22.8
forces namin yan.
49:24.6
Lahat ng sa kaliwan
49:28.4
bahala na kayo lahat dyan.
49:29.4
So, that's one way
49:29.9
of looking at it.
49:31.3
So, if we look at it
49:33.1
managing battle space,
49:35.3
pwede natin sabihin
49:36.9
division of labor,
49:38.5
anything outside of,
49:41.7
the 12 nautical mile
49:42.7
territorial waters natin,
49:45.7
the South China Sea,
49:47.3
bahala na kayo dyan.
49:52.6
yung archipelago.
49:55.4
archipelagic trade.
49:56.2
So, that's one way
49:56.8
of looking at it.
49:59.5
if you really want
50:02.3
domestic capability,
50:06.0
sa Ukraine-Russia
50:08.6
Ano ba yung ginawa
50:16.4
counter-strike capability
50:28.5
Group of Islands,
50:38.4
pagkat-other one,
50:44.7
redeploy drones there.
50:52.7
deploy drones there.
50:55.0
Itong drones natin
50:59.5
konting distansya na lang,
51:02.0
pwede ka na doon, eh.
51:06.2
If you want to develop
51:07.4
counter-strike capability.
51:15.1
ang feature nila doon,
51:17.3
is not defensible.
51:18.9
We are in the same
51:19.9
boats as Pratlys, eh.
51:21.0
Even our features,
51:22.7
are not defensible
51:24.6
They are more of a
51:25.5
political statement, eh.
51:29.2
because we're saying
51:29.9
that is part of our
51:32.7
And I'm gonna put
51:38.0
We're claiming that.
51:40.4
tsaka yung facilities
51:46.8
or defending them
51:50.6
that's a different
51:51.5
proposition altogether.
51:54.6
Philippine-US alliance,
51:57.0
how should I put it?
52:00.3
they're talking about,
52:01.6
how many billions of dollars,
52:04.2
given to Ukraine.
52:05.3
I understand the situation
52:06.7
And then you're talking about,
52:07.8
the ongoing conflict
52:08.6
in the Middle East.
52:11.6
you're talking about
52:12.9
which is one of the
52:13.5
most advanced countries
52:16.2
especially in military terms.
52:18.7
the question here is,
52:22.8
actually step it up
52:24.4
considering the Philippines
52:27.6
Don't you think that,
52:29.8
an exact parallel
52:33.0
just look at how far
52:34.1
the Philippine Coast Guard,
52:35.3
the Philippine Navy has gone
52:36.5
in terms of pushing back
52:38.2
in terms of standing
52:41.4
in the Second Tomas Shoal.
52:45.6
we have shown enough
52:49.2
to make the Americans
52:52.0
think that we're also
52:53.3
worth investing in?
52:57.0
total war situation
52:57.9
like what Ukraine is.
52:59.6
there's that dynamic, right?
53:01.2
They're going to invest in you
53:02.2
if they see you're willing
53:02.9
to fight for yourself.
53:03.9
you cannot be holier,
53:05.0
more Catholic than the Pope, right?
53:06.4
they cannot fight it more.
53:08.0
I remember this very well,
53:09.9
There was an American,
53:11.8
here in Washington, D.C.
53:14.4
And we were talking
53:15.0
about Scar Barshall
53:15.8
at blah, blah, blah.
53:18.8
we cannot want to fight
53:20.2
more for Panatak Shoal
53:22.1
than your president.
53:23.7
We were talking about,
53:27.4
a Filipino president
53:29.2
wala tayong mga gawa,
53:30.8
sabi ng Amerikano,
53:33.7
Kung wala mga gawa,
53:34.9
ba't kayo maasa sa amin
53:36.3
na poprotectahan kayo?
53:38.1
hindi kayo lumalaban
53:38.9
para sa sarili niyo.
53:41.2
we don't have that kind of
53:42.0
president anymore
53:44.4
you get what I'm saying, right?
53:45.8
this is where I disagree
53:47.6
with folks who say,
53:48.8
salamat kayo digong
53:49.8
siniseryoso tayo na Amerika.
53:51.4
there was a lot of cost
53:52.5
to having digong around, right?
53:53.9
It made us look like
53:55.5
a banana republic.
53:56.9
There was a lot of delay
53:57.7
in terms of developing
53:59.1
bilateral capabilities.
54:05.8
chair ang nilagay mo
54:07.6
the U.S. has no choice
54:08.7
but to take us more seriously
54:09.8
because of our geography
54:10.9
and the situation with China,
54:14.3
this is really about
54:15.3
our geopolitical position,
54:20.4
should we push more
54:21.3
for the Americans?
54:22.8
we're talking about
54:23.7
tens of billions of dollars
54:25.8
some countries that have
54:27.2
already one of the most
54:28.1
advanced militaries
54:29.5
and are up against,
54:30.7
some terrorist organization
54:33.0
Well, in the case of Philippines,
54:34.8
the biggest navy on earth.
54:39.4
in a bad sense there,
54:42.6
am I expecting too much?
54:43.9
how should we put it?
54:46.7
Okay, number one,
54:47.6
and I may get into trouble,
54:49.8
in another program
54:53.7
let's not rely too much
54:54.5
on the Americans.
54:57.4
we need to look at
54:58.2
yung sarili mo na natin.
55:00.8
if you're not willing
55:01.4
to fight for your own country,
55:02.9
how can you expect
55:06.1
to fight for you?
55:09.3
If you are not able
55:10.2
to defend your national interests,
55:12.9
don't ask the Americans
55:16.4
Kasi parang ano eh,
55:17.3
that's ridiculous eh.
55:21.2
hindi natin control yung ano eh
55:26.0
you're at the heart
55:38.1
supporting Ukraine?
55:46.5
yung southern border nila
55:49.2
illegal migration.
55:56.2
that they're saying
55:56.9
we should also focus on China
55:58.3
in the Pacific and Asia
55:59.8
because that's the real deal.
56:02.2
I had, for instance,
56:05.6
on my show before
56:08.5
we should focus on China.
56:11.8
concern and threat
56:13.5
to the United States.
56:15.5
I agree with you.
56:16.2
I also agree with you
56:16.9
between Elbridge Colby.
56:20.0
if the Republicans
56:26.0
a voice in the wilderness
56:28.7
the strategic community
56:30.0
in Washington, D.C.
56:36.3
and the Americans
56:38.8
kasi we have to accept
56:39.6
na they are distracted
56:40.3
with other global issues.
56:45.6
yung para pansinin tayo.
56:54.8
We need a better way
56:56.2
of packaging ourselves
56:57.2
or Southeast Asia.
56:59.9
we need to accept na
57:01.2
America is distracted
57:03.4
with other issues
57:06.6
as much as they want
57:17.0
them to veer away
57:19.3
and focus on China.
57:24.2
iiyakan na lang natin yun.
57:25.9
We look for alternatives.
57:28.0
I think that means
57:30.1
we need to diversify
57:32.0
and partnerships.
57:38.6
or maybe Australia
57:44.0
but ang kagandaan nun
57:46.3
part of the barangay.
57:48.2
Kasi ang problema
57:49.3
hindi siya member
57:50.4
ng barangay natin eh.
57:57.2
Dumadalaw lang siya.
58:02.7
four hours flight
58:03.4
from Manila, right?
58:06.1
in Japan and Korea.
58:07.4
I see what you're saying
58:08.3
but I think we have to
58:09.1
be careful about that argument.
58:10.2
That's what the Chinese
58:11.5
Oh, the Americans
58:12.0
are external powers
58:12.9
but last time I checked,
58:14.9
that's an American territory
58:16.1
pero mga Pinoy pa dyan.
58:17.3
I think 50% are Pinoy.
58:19.1
may fellow Ilocano.
58:20.8
they are a resident power
58:22.9
They're not an Asian power
58:24.0
but they're in the Pacific power.
58:25.5
They are a Pacific power,
58:28.6
you're correct there.
58:29.5
Ang inaano ko lang is
58:30.7
because they have
58:33.7
other global interests
58:34.8
or global commitments.
58:36.9
Absolutely, yeah.
58:39.7
even if they want to.
58:41.0
Even if they want to.
58:43.7
one of the drivers
58:48.5
naval balance of power.
58:51.2
Yung China is able
58:53.4
dito sa East Asia.
58:56.0
America's different
58:59.9
that deployed everywhere.
59:02.5
yung laman ng feats na yun,
59:08.5
they have the 7th Fleet here,
59:11.4
hindi rin siya makakonsentrate
59:12.7
lang dito sa region na to.
59:16.9
That's a good point.
59:18.0
Kaya nga sabi ko,
59:19.2
we have to be also careful
59:20.3
with this propaganda
59:24.6
blah, blah, blah.
59:26.2
but US is a global power.
59:29.7
between how many,
59:31.2
you know, oceans.
59:32.3
Well, China is still
59:33.4
primarily an Asian power.
59:36.3
to a certain degree,
59:36.8
they're expanding
59:40.6
totally different situations.
59:42.8
if you use proper
59:43.6
economic measures
59:44.4
like purchasing power parity,
59:46.3
China's defense budget
59:47.7
600 billion, right?
59:49.3
Assuming we're even
59:50.1
counting the real budget
59:51.2
and dami mga Hindi,
59:52.1
they didn't declare.
59:53.4
this is very correct
59:54.7
that the Chinese,
59:56.3
they can concentrate
59:57.9
as a regional power
59:59.2
due to sa theater
60:00.0
while the United States
60:02.7
in that position.
60:04.0
there was just a research
60:05.9
Congressional Research
60:17.4
looking at the map
60:20.2
one in the Middle East
60:22.9
because you have also,
60:24.4
I'm not talking about
60:25.3
Hamas and I'm talking
60:26.1
about other major
60:26.7
regional powers there
60:27.7
and Russia and China
60:28.5
also have an interest there.
60:30.7
so they're talking
60:31.3
about three theaters
60:32.3
of potential conflict,
60:34.9
in the near future.
60:37.0
that's why we're having
60:38.1
this conversation.
60:46.4
how should I put it,
60:48.6
to have reasonable
60:49.3
expectations about things.
60:52.1
I'm not at my sharpest
60:53.1
but I hope I'm making sense here.
60:54.6
Ang tanong ko lang dito is,
60:56.2
ano yung baseline
60:58.2
with the United States?
60:59.3
And I think this is my segue
61:01.2
of our conversation
61:02.0
at least for today
61:02.8
and hopefully we'll have
61:08.2
are seeking for more
61:15.2
is that some of the bases
61:18.5
but there are also
61:23.9
very precious things
61:25.3
that are on the table
61:28.1
fully green-lighted.
61:33.2
even between allies,
61:35.7
some sort of reciprocity,
61:37.5
definitely between allies.
61:39.1
as we allow the Americans
61:40.2
to have more presence
61:41.8
vis-a-vis Taiwan,
61:42.5
that's a very risky
61:45.4
equivocal about it
61:48.9
strategic ambiguity
61:49.8
if I can put it that way.
61:50.9
What is your take on that?
61:53.0
what should be the baseline
61:54.7
I completely agree
61:55.8
that we should not rely
61:57.6
but at the end of the day,
61:59.2
iba yung treaty ally, eh.
62:01.7
you know what I'm saying,
62:03.1
strategic partner.
62:04.2
whatever you want to call them,
62:05.0
comprehensive strategic partner,
62:07.0
All of these terminologies
62:09.7
for different countries,
62:11.5
Iba pa rin yung treaty ally, eh.
62:13.0
It's at a totally
62:16.8
the baseline expectation
62:18.6
we should develop
62:20.5
what is the thing
62:21.3
that our envoys here
62:23.4
for our ambassadors?
62:25.6
bukas tayo nag-replace kayo.
62:27.6
mahal natin si Ambassador Ramaldes,
62:29.3
but let's just say,
62:31.5
the ambassador tomorrow here.
62:33.2
Anong mga baselines
62:34.2
na dapat itarget natin
62:35.5
to get out of our alliance?
62:37.6
In a reasonable way,
62:38.9
that is actually also good.
62:40.7
because U.S. security
62:43.6
if we're not secure,
62:44.4
we cannot defend ourself.
62:45.8
Problema din sa kanila yan.
62:47.3
I'm just wondering,
62:47.8
what should be the baseline there
62:49.5
Philippine-U.S. alliance?
62:52.4
A problem, Richard,
62:53.5
with the baseline is
62:54.7
the baseline is defined
62:59.3
domestic politics.
63:00.7
If it's only purely
63:02.5
on military strategic conversation,
63:05.8
madali ilatag yan.
63:08.7
ililista mo yung capabilities mo,
63:10.8
ililista mo yung requirements mo.
63:13.4
when we define the alliance,
63:14.9
the Philippine-U.S. alliance,
63:16.6
a corporate relation,
63:21.8
ang equity ng U.S.
63:23.1
is yung capabilities niya eh.
63:25.1
Ang equity natin dito
63:28.9
it's real estate.
63:30.9
ang question dito is
63:31.8
in terms of the baseline,
63:42.2
of the engagement?
63:43.9
And at what level
63:56.2
Let's say ideal muna.
63:58.0
yung facilities natin
64:01.1
at any given time.
64:05.5
search their forces
64:08.4
Philippine archipelago
64:12.3
na merong warning order.
64:17.6
pag latag nila dito,
64:23.3
and they are able
64:30.9
or Y number of days.
64:41.6
able to influence
64:47.7
if you're looking
64:54.6
Basi Channel Zone 3
64:58.8
and the Mid-Pacific.
65:01.2
calculation na doon.
65:10.7
something happens
65:11.8
and the Americans
65:21.9
commander-in-chief
65:35.7
negative implications.
65:38.9
would be dependent
65:44.1
ng commander-in-chief.
65:50.3
You're being very
65:51.3
diplomatic about this.
65:55.0
former military guy,
65:58.5
there's the politics of it,
65:59.6
there's the operational,
66:00.7
military aspect of it,
66:02.9
marriage of the two?
66:05.1
if we split the difference,
66:06.9
a realistic level
66:07.9
of political calculations
66:11.0
a reasonable level
66:12.4
of military capability
66:15.2
ayaw naman natin forever
66:16.3
na hanggang real estate
66:17.3
na lang asset tayo.
66:18.2
We want to also be
66:22.1
actively contribute
66:23.1
to international peace
66:24.0
and security, right?
66:26.1
immediate region,
66:28.2
counter-terrorism,
66:30.1
not just in Mindanao
66:33.0
the US has an interest
66:34.2
in developing the capability
66:35.4
of allies like the Philippines
66:37.1
we can contribute
66:38.1
to an international system
66:39.2
that is more stable
66:46.0
security dialogues,
66:47.7
yung readout niya,
66:50.3
50% is on security
66:51.4
and 50% is on economy.
66:53.9
The reason being,
66:58.0
o industrialization.
66:59.6
the only way we can be
67:00.7
sustainably be able
67:02.9
under an alliance framework
67:04.8
is if we capacitate
67:07.1
Hindi yung dependent.
67:09.7
Hindi yung mendicant
67:11.5
dun sa relationship
67:12.3
or transactional.
67:22.1
natin sa sarili natin.
67:25.2
they need to help us
67:32.1
from them equipment.
67:36.4
that's a business relationship
67:41.4
mahal yung equipment
67:42.6
Kaya nga we're buying
67:43.3
from other countries eh
67:44.6
which is much cheaper.
67:48.6
We mentioned about
67:50.7
Technology transfer.
67:54.8
making the Philippines
67:57.4
military supply chain
68:02.5
Kasi mayroon naman
68:06.1
or simple equipment
68:12.2
we're towards the
68:18.7
because I want you
68:21.7
yung ating mga kababayan
68:23.0
ba't mahalaga ito.
68:23.9
But, I want you to also
68:26.7
Filipino-American
68:30.5
Kasi as we speak,
68:32.6
certain countries
68:33.7
get billions of dollars
68:34.7
of aid even if they're
68:35.6
developing region
68:36.4
of that is because
68:38.0
There's a powerful lobby
68:38.9
that pushes for stronger
68:40.6
bilateral security
68:44.0
is actually Indians.
68:45.0
The Indian community
68:45.7
and Indian-American
68:46.9
community is very
68:50.4
consequential in terms
68:52.8
bilateral relationship
68:53.7
between India and US.
68:55.1
And India is not even
68:55.9
an ally of the US,
68:57.2
And they're getting
68:59.7
development capability,
69:02.7
But, before that,
69:07.7
to this issue of Taiwan?
69:08.5
Because your take
69:09.4
on the Taiwan issue
69:13.8
nidaman opposite.
69:22.4
we could leverage
69:24.7
the Taiwan linkage
69:27.0
essentially making
69:27.6
clear to the Chinese
69:29.8
in West Philippine Sea,
69:31.3
access to the Americans.
69:32.3
But it could also
69:33.2
work the other way.
69:35.1
the American access
69:50.3
and there should be
69:53.3
I think if I remember,
69:54.8
maybe the Taiwan issue
69:56.2
is even more important
69:57.7
because we're talking
69:58.2
about a giant island
69:59.8
not just small islands here.
70:01.2
I think that's where
70:02.1
you have some interesting
70:07.1
Ang best case scenario
70:11.9
here is what it's now.
70:14.7
Minus, of course,
70:16.0
in the Taiwan Strait.
70:19.5
So, that's my best case scenario.
70:21.5
My worst case scenario
70:27.9
Taiwan is essentially
70:28.8
buffer state natin
70:30.5
So, if we lose Taiwan,
70:32.7
then kapit-bahay na natin
70:35.9
our northern part,
70:36.9
the northern part
70:38.0
of the Philippines
70:38.6
will be under threat.
70:40.0
It will be under threat
70:40.9
kasi base channel
70:49.1
during the previous administration,
70:54.6
in those certain areas
70:56.1
in the northern Philippines
70:57.3
na kami naman sa Navy
71:00.3
strategic yung ano yan,
71:01.5
yung placement niya.
71:05.2
hindi tayo magsasalita.
71:07.2
they gain access nila
71:08.2
to whether that is
71:10.1
foreign direct investment
71:13.7
Purism naman daw.
71:15.1
Papagandahin nila
71:18.3
That will give them
71:22.9
nung nakita natin,
71:26.9
those arguing against
71:30.5
may EDCA rin yung China.
71:32.4
Ang tawag nila ron,
71:39.2
may Chinese presence.
71:42.7
anything that disrupts
71:44.2
yung strategy nila
71:51.7
if you do not want
71:52.5
the Americans there,
71:53.8
kasi that might be
71:54.7
a driver for the country,
71:57.2
the minimum we can do
71:58.2
is deploy our own forces
71:59.9
there and strengthen
72:03.5
And we can always claim
72:09.0
even if you claim
72:10.0
na we are a US puppet,
72:12.5
that is our territory.
72:14.5
Responsible kami dyan.
72:16.2
And we will protect
72:20.2
Just to make sure
72:20.9
that it's peaceful.
72:22.7
So, that's the minimum
72:26.2
thank you very much for that.
72:30.2
just dun sa mga ating
72:32.7
siguro hindi nila na-appreciate.
72:34.4
I got a lot of bashing
72:36.4
dun sa some of the articles
72:39.1
36 billion pesos.
72:41.0
Siyempre, hindi nila binasa.
72:42.7
this is over 10 years
72:44.3
as a share of GDP.
72:45.9
It's actually not that much.
72:48.7
to the Philippines
72:49.2
to a lot of our neighbors,
72:50.5
we're way behind the curve,
72:55.4
500 billion dollars,
72:57.7
spending 36 billion
73:00.2
considering the threat
73:01.8
considering how far
73:02.8
we have to catch up
73:04.7
not only with China,
73:06.0
with some of our peers
73:08.3
I think I'm already
73:08.8
answering the question,
73:13.4
serving the Navy,
73:15.1
has served in the Navy
73:17.9
yung buong pamilyon
73:18.7
yung involved dito
73:20.2
Can I just remind
73:20.9
yung mga kababayan natin
73:22.5
itong modernization act?
73:24.3
And I know the context
73:25.1
of our conversation
73:26.6
I'm sure you've heard
73:27.6
even some people,
73:28.7
including my guests,
73:30.3
some of them were skeptical.
73:31.6
Some of them were like,
73:32.5
I'm not sure you want
73:33.3
to spend that much,
73:35.6
emeldific lang ito
73:36.8
or maging white elephant
73:38.9
or baka mamaharlik
73:41.6
What do you have to tell
73:45.0
in an ideal world,
73:46.7
I would prefer that
73:49.7
pupunta sa education,
73:52.1
anything that would be
73:53.2
good for the people.
73:54.8
living in a perfect
73:56.7
We are living in a
73:58.9
region sa East Asia.
74:07.6
pagdadalawang isip natin
74:09.6
for our own defense.
74:19.6
to protect yourself.
74:23.2
is something that is
74:28.0
ano yung cost nun
74:29.0
pag if we do not do that?
74:30.5
Then we are surrendering
74:31.5
yung country natin
74:33.6
whims and caprices
74:34.4
of a third country
74:35.7
who has ambitions
74:52.2
rights as citizens.
74:56.8
kaunti lang yun eh,
75:01.1
investment na yun
75:08.0
countries like US
75:10.8
Russia is spending
75:12.6
China is spending
75:13.4
definitely more than
75:16.0
we're like spending
75:19.8
but we don't have
75:20.6
1 point something.
75:25.9
from a very low base
75:28.9
this is serious stuff.
75:30.2
And hindi naman pwede
75:35.3
Hindi naman pwede
75:42.6
of dealing with this.
75:43.9
hindi tayo siseryo
75:44.8
sa ina yung mga bansa
75:45.5
kung wala kang mati
75:48.1
military or armed forces.
75:51.3
And as we discussed,
75:52.5
we'd see Mike Loico
75:56.5
a kind of a 21st century
75:57.8
modern armed forces.
75:59.0
Not the best in the world
76:01.2
a modern capable one.
76:04.8
sa mga Philippine-American
76:06.8
Is there an advice
76:07.7
that maybe they should be
76:10.1
more American support
76:12.1
for the Philippines
76:13.8
Siguro yung mga F-16 fighters
76:15.0
gawin nila mas mura
76:17.6
binibenta nila sa atin.
76:18.7
Ituloy na punta tayo
76:20.7
Anong masasabi natin dyan?
76:24.3
keep the fire burning
76:26.9
visibility ng Pilipinas
76:31.3
Kasi ang larangan kasi dyan
76:34.5
domestic politics
76:41.7
be a constant voice
76:50.0
the Southeast Asia
76:51.7
and the Philippines.
76:53.4
thank you very much
76:57.7
Ateneo Manila University.
77:00.0
School of Government po.
77:02.2
Professor of Practice
77:03.1
at the Ateneo School of Government.
77:04.5
Thank you so much
77:05.2
for that discussion.
77:09.1
what real experts do.
77:10.8
Amateurs do more like
77:14.0
people would appreciate
77:15.7
that, Admiral Ong.
77:18.8
certain articles,
77:21.0
I mean, of course,
77:21.5
I know, but, you know,
77:22.2
for the purpose of audience
77:23.0
that you want people to check
77:24.3
especially your thoughts
77:26.1
on asymmetric warfare,
77:28.4
siguro mas maganda
77:30.1
yung mga sinulat niyo
77:30.9
na available to the public
77:32.2
for free, of course.
77:34.0
Are there certain things
77:35.0
that you want to flag there
77:36.3
for people to check?
77:38.3
So, I'm still writing one.
77:39.3
I will be writing one
77:41.4
it's archipelagic strategy.
77:43.3
So, hintayin niyo na lang.
77:47.1
on Rappler, right,
77:48.7
has touched on these issues.
77:50.2
So, I really suggest
77:50.9
guys to check that.
77:52.2
Not to mention, also,
77:53.0
if you go to YouTube
77:54.8
just put Hey Darian
77:58.1
previous conversations
77:58.9
comes in First Island Chain,
78:00.5
Second Island Chain,
78:01.5
other issues that
78:02.4
hindi na namin inulit dito.
78:04.4
So, you can check them out.
78:05.8
But I look forward,
78:07.0
to catching up with you
78:08.0
perhaps at a better time
78:09.1
as far as my time is concerned.
78:11.8
Maraming salamat,
78:13.1
for putting aside
78:15.8
from your weekend
78:16.4
and morning with us.
78:18.0
I can see a lot of people
78:19.0
showing a lot of appreciation
78:20.2
dito sa ganitong discussion.
78:26.2
ni Ronald Llamas.
78:28.3
mga usapan gluta tayon
78:30.0
or usapan kalokoan.
78:32.3
This is serious stuff.
78:33.7
This is matters of war
78:34.7
and peace, right?
78:38.3
But thank you so much,
78:41.3
and as authoritative
78:44.5
Kasi ayoko yung mga
78:45.1
pa-amateur discussions lang.
78:46.7
So, thank you so much,
78:47.9
and hope to have you again
78:50.0
for more discussions.
78:51.5
Baka gusto mo rin mag-ano,
78:52.6
usapan gluta tayon,
78:58.8
Pag-repress mo na.
79:01.8
baka magpa-drip mo daw muna.
79:04.0
Magpa-drip muna daw
79:10.1
and talk to you soon.
79:11.6
Mabuhay po, Admiral.
