A special R&R episode.

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Okay, so sa previous episode na pag-usapan natin yung bakbakan between, eto na, I might say something with myself in trouble. Let's just say factions versus factions of the administration with the 2028 elections and the Duterte potential comeback in mind.

All the things are going to go crazy. Baste runs, Digong runs, I don't know, Polong runs, Tulfos runs. I mean, my goodness, it's going to be crazy. Good luck na lang. We discussed already in the previous episode what could happen if Digong is the Senate President. Manggugulo din yan, di ba? They could coup out yung sa baba, sa taas, lahat.

But in this episode, let's talk about also the real prospect of works. I just came from Washington. This is how we're discussing with some folks there about Philippine-US alliance, the China question, Taiwan.

So one of the things that I want to discuss with you today, we already had some discussion on AFPs. Ikaw Ronald, aren't you worried now on the Taiwan issue baka we might go a little bit too deep with the Americans in a sense that might provoke China?

I know, I'm going to argue against this statement right away, I would say. But of course, as some correctly also say, we cannot afford Taiwan to become China because then you have a giant island just north of Batanes.

A hundred kilometers away.

Yeah, like 80 miles.

80 miles lang. I mean, it's so scary. So kaya we have some people like Admiral Ong, for instance, we had a discussion, sabi niya. Yun yung worst case scenario. Probably even worse than West Philippine Sea. Kasi West Philippine Sea, malilit na Islaminawa, pinagawain dito. Ito, Taiwan, giant eh. Next to us, next to Luzon, right? To the centers of power, next to Ilocos, next to BBMs, home province, etc.

How do you feel about this Taiwan issue? Because from my understanding, the Americans want to have maximal access there.

They can put weapon systems, fighter jets, etc. Sabi nila humanitarian, charot-charot, ETCA, charot-charot. Pero in reality, maybe they're planning for really D-Day. And then now you're seeing Kibo visiting there together with Brawner, together with the Admiral, head of Philippine Navy, dun sa Mavulis. I mean, these are huge. And from my understanding, there could be Balikatan exercises, some of them there in the Batanes area. There are discussions about Pentagon building port facilities.

Of course, everything will be said in terms of defensive, humanitarian. But hindi naman tangan China, diba? I mean, they're not even reading in between the lines. They're seeing things as they're happening. What is your sense on this? I mean, during Pinoy's time, didn't the Taiwan issue come into picture? It's not like walang tensions ng panahon ni Pinoy, diba?

Not much. Dahil ang focus kasi noon itong West Philippine Sea, Scarborough specifically. Yan yung defining moment.

Nung Aquino administration. At nagsisimula pa lang itayo itong mga artificial islands within our EEZ. So, mas nakafocus yung Pinoy government dun sa West Philippine Sea.

Andun yung Taiwan, pero hindi inaasahan at that time na ito ay magiging immediate concern. Ngayon kasi, yan yung entry point sa Pacific.

From the Pacific, yan yung entry point sa South China Sea. Yung strait sa Japan is not too huge, not too big as yung strait in between Taiwan and the Batanas area. So, very significant siya.

At the most important port ng Taiwan ay nandun sa part na yun. Nandun sa southern part ng Taiwan.

If there's going to be a war,

yan yung unang dudurugi ng China.

Yung port na yan.

Dahil dyan babagsak yung mga support ng US, ng Australia.

Dyan babagsak sa port na yan.

So, they have to destroy that. And that's very close to the Philippines.

At tingin ko, it's not lost in translation naman, that the two EDCA camps in Isabela and Cagayan,

it's more to guard that strait.

It's not to guard the West Philippine Sea. It's landlocked. Isabela and Cagayan are landlocked.

It's more northward looking.

At kaya ang problema sa ating Constitution, we still denounce war as an instrument of foreign policy unless we are attacked.

In that case, Taiwan,

we are not being attacked.

Paano tayo...

Paano tayo...

Ano yung ating magiging role?

Kung halimbawa, Taiwan ang atakihin,

and the Americans are in Isabela and Cagayan.

Yan yung tricky.

Yan yung tricky dyan.

I'm not sure kung...

Ang alam ko, latest, wala pa masyadong infrastructure

na itinatayo dyan sa dalawang EDCA camps na yan.

Sa Isabela at saka sa Cagayan.

Pero pwede mag-escalate dyan eh.

But everybody is waiting for the November elections in the US.

Especially the Chinese.

Pero ang alam ko, yung coastal area ng China across Taiwan ay talagang nag-i-scale up na militarily.

I think they're preparing for war.

And they might do it actually preemptively. I mean there's some discussions in the East right now that China might strike first.

Within the year, or in five years, or ten years, it's a different thing.

But the entire coast of China ay talagang nag-scale up in terms of build up.

Fujian area especially.

At ang alam ko, may marching orders dyan si Xi Jinping to prepare for war.

The war that they can win, a modern war. Hindi lang just prepare for war na bara-bara like Putin, diba?

Yes, yes.

You're absolutely right.

At iba yan sa Ukraine. It could be very quick.

Dahil hindi naman kasing laki ng Ukraine ang Taiwan.

At a lot of countries might be drawn dyan.

Not only the Americans.

The Japanese, the Australians, possibly the Koreans and the New Zealanders, etc.

I'm not sure about ASEAN, some ASEAN countries.

Probably Singapore will inevitably be drawn kasi U.S. has warships and positions also there.

Yes, but Singapore is also very close to China.

Economically, yes.

Most of the countries are filled with Chinese money.

So they will have second thoughts.

They will try to have. They definitely always have second thoughts.

Pero ako kasi feeling ko, tatargetin na tayo ng China.

If they're gonna invade Taiwan, unayin na nila yung mga bullies, yung mga facilities para hindi magamit ng mga Amerikano.

The Chinese are not gonna wait to see what we're gonna do.

They're gonna just hit those bases para hindi na makarespond ng Amerika.

So essentially, we have no choice.

In a way, we have to prepare for it.

That's increasingly my understanding thanks to China's understanding of this situation.

So there's no way out of it.

But having said that, what is the best thing we can get out?

Pero iba kasi Richard.

Yung attacking Taiwan na matagal na nilang kiniklaim na part ng China.

Iba yung attacking a different country like the Philippines.

Kahit mga US base, lalo na mga US bases yan.

Dito, bagamat wala silang extra-territoriality like Clark at Subic before.

Pero these are US bases.

So that will be a major, major scaling up.

Ibang usapin kung yung bakbakan is limited in Taiwan.

Iba kung mag-e-expand siya.

Halimbawa sa Isabela and Kagayan.

With the EDCA sites.

Tingin ko even China ay magdadalawa, magtatatlong isip na gawin yun.

Hindi nga mahirap eh.

Kasi there's no way they can just attack Taiwan without hitting American bases in Japan.

And also hitting potential Americans.

Pero ang tingin ko na factor in nila.

Kaya nga ang tingin ko strategy nila is to take over Taiwan in three days.

Para hindi na makaporma all the others.

Para tulungan ang Taiwan.

Pero hindi na narinig ko kay Putin.

He wanted to get Kiev in three days.

Yes, but Taiwan is so small.

Ukraine is bigger than France.

Taiwan is an island.

So it's hard to invade an island.

And remember, Taiwan is a developed country.

Very industrialized country.

Like Ukraine, mas mahirap pa nga sa Pilipinas.

So I get your point.

But China is willing to lose a million men.

Just to unite.

Tingin ko, willing sila mag-take ng casualties.

And this is a one-child policy country.

So you're gonna affect one million families.

And we have 200,000 Pilipinos in Taiwan.

Definitely.

Yung madodrawin tayo dyan.

Well, I think ASEAN will be involved.

Because you also have hundreds of thousands of Indonesians, etc.

So siguro the ASEAN issue will be more humanitarian.

And they will need Philippines.

Kasi i-evacuate mo sila. Batanes kagayaan.

But during the fog of war, mahirap na mag-distinguish.

Ano yung humanitarian? Ano yung hostile?

Yung magkulo yan.

Ang hirap na yan.

It's a total nightmare.

One reason I was in Tokyo the other week nung nag-usap tayo.

We were doing war games already with friends on this issue.

It's a mess. It's just a mess.

Ang hirap ng situation talaga.

How Indonesia will respond.

How Singapore will respond.

How Tokyo will respond.

It's a very difficult situation.

But just to close on this topic.

I mean, it goes back again to Philippine-US alliance.

Ang akin lang naman.

Sana naman hindi lang tayo hanggang real estate alliance lang.

Tipong, oh you'll have access to my base or not.

You wanna have a situation where the Philippines has projection capability.

Or counter-strike capability.

Or some sort of capability of its own.

Hindi lang tayo taga-bigay lang ng susi sa...

Wala. Itong panating ng mga Indian missiles.

Kaya ba, counter-strike.

Pero sa West Philippines yan eh.

So you have few batteries.

Ilalagyan mo yan sa Palawan.

I mean, I think it's right that we're reaching out to India, Korea, etc.

But at the end of the day.

I mean, I was just in Washington DC.

They were discussing what?

An 80 billion dollar bill for Israel and Ukraine.

Right?

It's not like those countries are not equipped already.

Especially if it's like a superpower.

They have the most advanced military machinery right now.

Pero...

So I'm wondering.

Nasaan ang Pilipinas sa conversations na yan?

Ito kaya nga dapat.

Ganun ang negotiations ng ating gobyerno.

Yeah. Yun nga eh.

Napakahina lang ang negotiations.

Second hand ships.

Pero alam mo ah.

Alam mo ah.

Sabi, we're going to buy submarines.

Yung pinag-uusapan natin.

How long do you train submariners?

10 to 15 years program yan.

Filipino submariners.

Filipino submariners.

How long do you train top gun?

Fighter, jet fighters.

So either you start a year ago.

Start earlier. Yeah.

Hindi ganun kabilis yan.

And war is almost imminent.

So whether we like it or not.

Either we don't participate in any war.

Or we rely on others.

Yeah.

But dahil wala pa tayong...

But my point, yun nga eh.

It's hard to be neutral given the geography and the US alliance.

I mean, we may not be interested in Taiwan crisis.

But the Taiwan crisis is interested in us.

Kaya ang hirap ng situation for us eh.

Ang point ko lang.

I hope we get more.

Kasi look at it.

Until now, we're discussing all of these things with Sweden.

Fighter jets.

Missiles. India. Korea.

Where's the US?

Nasaan yung advanced weapons systems?

They're giving the best tanks to Egypt.

I'm not even talking about...

Yeah, yeah.

Australia cannot give us anything.

So yun nga eh.

We bought boats from Japan.

We bought fighter jets from Korea.

Diba?

Pero yung US parang wala pa eh.

So where is it?

At least India, top of the line eh itong kanilang mga missiles na ito.

Hindi itong mga basta-basta.

And they're willing to give us soft loans pa.

And could jointly develop.

Meaning give us some tech transfer capability.

So ang ganda ng terms nung India and even Korea probably.

We can even negotiate drone capacity from them.

Cheaply.

Or Turkey.

Even Turkey, we can work with them on drone production.

Kaya nang sabi ko eh.

Parang nakakapusan ako sa alliance natin with the US.

See how big we are to them.

Anong sabi ng mga kausap mo sa DC?

My understanding is that they want to have the maximal access

because they're preparing na for D-Day.

Kaya love na love nila si BBM.

Ako naman, ang point ko is BBM is still hedging his bets.

Kasi hindi naman syunga yung mga yan eh.

They wanna also get something out of this.

Aside from other things we can discuss, right?

We need less love and more weapons.

More real weapons, exactly.

Hindi pa rin love, love, love lang.

Kaya ako, even though we make fun of BBM traveling and all.

There's a lot happening.

Kasi as he goes to Australia, they're gonna talk about Taiwan.

As he goes to anywhere in the world.

Dahil sa sabrong mahalaga ng Pilipinas ngayon.

Pero kausap ko yung mga Australia.

Kausap ko yung mga Australians kanina over lunch.

Ito lang ang may limits yung pwede nilang ibigay sa atin.

Because they're buying, also buying hardware eh.

Yeah, and that seems submarine nila, ilan hundred.

Wala silang military industrial complex sa Australia.

Yan yung problema nila.

Wala silang maitutulong sa atin.

They're expecting the Americans to do that.

Pero hanggang ngayon, wala pa akong masyadong nakikita eh.

Yun nga eh.

I mean, transport, air, mga ganyan.

I get it.

Pero hindi.

I'm talking about fighter jets, multi-role vessels.

I'm talking about advanced...

Transport or backward linkages eh.

Yung kanwa.

Kahit pa lang defense capability eh.

I mean, I get that we shouldn't rely on the U.S.

We should have diversified networks.

But this is your only treaty ally, right?

At ang problema, pag nanalo si Trump, lalong hindi magbibigay yun.

No?

Although, baka tumawag si El DeMarcos, diba?

They talk about their New York days, parting in Manhattan.

Ang malapit kay Trump, ang BFF kay Trump, si Digo.

Ay, ibang usapan yan. Ako, ibang usapan.

Pero diba, Donald Trump doesn't like losers, diba? Medyo loser na yung isang...

Yeah, yeah.

Let's see. Salamat sa Ronald. Napahaba ang discussion natin kasi we're catching up for two weeks.

Ay, two weeks. Yeah, more than one week hindi discussion.

Pero talagang dahil sa Brazil yan. I think once we discuss Brazil, we lost 30 minutes there.

Mahapang usapan yan eh.

Thank you so much, Sir Ronald.

Anytime. Big R.

For these fantastic sets of episodes.

Hope to catch up soon on more interesting developments.

And Ronald, huwag kalimutan. Drip, drip, drip. Gluta tayo. Vitamin C.

Vitamin C daw yun. Vitamin C. Vitamin C. Talk to you soon.

Welcome back, Big R.

Salamat po. Talk to you soon. God bless.

Heh heh.