A special Richard & Ronald Episode.

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Eto na, eto na. Pag-usapan na natin. Eto na tayo. CSI, R&R tayo. May news na nahuli na po si Sir Tevez na nag-golf yata in East Timor. What's going on there? Ganun ba yung sense niya ng impunity na nag-golf-golf lang dyan sa tabi-tabi at hindi ganun kalayo ang East Timor?

Well, akala kasi ni Tevez ay kaibigan niya yung presidente ng East Timor. Akala niya ay poprotektahan siya. Kaya tingin niya ay pwede lang siya maglamir darun pag-golf-golf.

Parang hindi rin niya naulawaan na there are things much bigger than him. Halimbawa, hindi naman ganun ka-develop ang East Timor. Nangkahanap din yan ng tulong sa ibang mga bansa.

At kung sila ay mag-harbor ng mga criminals, hindi maganda sa kanilang image. Even sa Pilipinas, ay tingin ko naman in the balance sheet, mas malaki yung kanilang pakinabang na in the good graces sila ng isang malaking bansa kumpara sa kanila na katulad ng Pilipinas.

Kesa yung protektahan yung isang kaibigan ng isang presidente ng East Timor na pinagmamalaki ni Tevez.

Ang sigurado ko lang, yung wanted ng ICC ay hindi sa East Timor magtatago. Yung lang ako, ako 100% sure, hindi siya doon magtatago.

Baka naman East Guangdong or East D.C. Baka East Zhejiang.

Much bigger place than East Timor.

Or baka naman East Siberia. Yung mga ganun type. Dalawa lang naman ang best options mo.

Best friend din si Kwan.

Kaya si Putin, no?

Then Russia or China. I mean, sabi mo nga, ay, wag na, baka may NTRCB tayo, alam mo na. Forward natin yan.

So, in a way, that's a kind of stark reminder without exaggerating that there's still something called Interpol, there's still something called Interstate Policing Law Enforcement Coordination.

Pero dating head ng Interpol, galing sa China.

Maalala mo, siya yung biglang nawala. Siya yung missing, hinahanap ng missis.

Diba? Head ng Interpol.

Medyo grabe din yung mga four years ago.

So, ini-infiltrate din kasi ang China ng Interpol at different institutions.

Bati WHO, diba? Para lang, they'll do their own thing.

Obviously, may interest din ng China because they have many dissidents, they have many democracy activists, enemies potentially, or billionaires who might escape.

So, it serves their purpose to colonize.

Actually, a lot of institutions.

Sa WHO naman, they're trying to kick out Taiwan.

Kawawa yung Taiwan.

Considering how good Taiwan is, I think pinakasukseswal ang Taiwan with management.

So, that's a whole different topic, no?

Chinese colonization of international bodies, UN bodies, among others.

But balikan natin ito.

So, there was this announcement recently na naghahanap ng translators ang International Criminal Court.

Now, the Tagalog one will be, okay, I mean, gets ko yan.

But Bisaya also, Bisaya language.

I mean...

Is that an indication or we are just exaggerating because 40% of Filipinas are Bisaya speakers?

Well, if that's not an indication, I'll be wondering what is.

Bakit walang Ilocano?

Na-heard kami, mga taga-Solid North.

Parang wala naman akong kilalang Cebuano sa Africa na just about to be charged sa ICC, no?

Or sa former Yugoslavia.

Kaya tingin ko, it's a very...

It's a very clear indication kung saan papunta yan, no?

At it could be sooner than later.

It could be sooner than later.

Kahit ang lagi pa rin sinasabi ni President Duterte na walang jurisdiction ang ICC sa Pilipinas

in spite ng opinion ng Supreme Court, unanimous opinion ng Supreme Court last December 2021

na may jurisdiction sila.

Parang okay naman dahil hindi naman niya sinabi na pipigilan niya pumasok ang ICC.

At definitely, kung tinetrete ni Digo na imamasakira niya yung mag-implement ng international warrant,

eh guguho ang image ni BBM sa international kung papaya.

Yeah, it will be like Maguindanao, di ba?

Yung parang gano'n naman ni Arif.

So, what they're saying...

Kaya pag pinapasok na yan, definitely...

Your hands will be forced.

Oo.

Not only with the police, but perhaps with the military.

Oo, and you think exaggerated that whole Davao task force angle na may sariling praetorian guard si Digo sa Davao

na they have to disarm them or special forces nilagawin niya?

Mukhang napaltan na, hindi dinisband yung task force Davao.

Mukhang pinaltan na yung mga ilang mga key people ng task force Davao.

So, tingin ko may pamamaraan.

Dahil hindi naman pwedeng ilang taong ka na nakadeploy.

Tingin ko may regularity naman na palitan yung mga leader at saka even the members of task force Davao.

Hindi naman pwedeng sabihin na ginagawa lamang yun para ihanda yung pagpasok ng ICC.

Tingin ko it's very regular na gawin yun na six months or even less ay dapat pinapalitan.

At medyo matagal na yung task force Davao.

Dahil mukhang hindi pinalitan ni Digo when he was the president.

Hindi niya rin siguro na-anticipate na things will move in this direction so decisively.

I mean, going back to this, how should I put it?

Like ikaw, I mean, can you still patong like Duterte being arrested and all?

Magda-drama-drama yan, mag-wheelchair yan, mag-neck brace yan.

I mean, I'm stopping.

I mean, what can you do?

What can they do in translations to make this more palatable?

Like ano kaya nilang, ano kaya magiging communication strategy ng ICC to psychologically prepare the Filipino people for this potential big, big, big move before the end of the year?

Probably second or third quarter of the year.

Yeah.

Una ay in terms of period, mukhang usually kasi yung ganyang kaso sa ICC mga seven to eight years.

At tingin ko, tayo ay nasa period na yan, seven to eight years.

Wala naman tumatagal ng eight years.

Pero ikalawa, kung walang cooperation ng gobyerno, merong at least labing apat na wanted ng ICC ang still at large.

Ibig sabihin, hindi unique na hindi ma-serve yung warrant either dahil ayaw payagan ng gobyerno pumasok

or nakalipat ng bansa.

Na walang powers yung ICC.

Usually, kung merong consensus yung National Security Council, the ICC can request the National Security Council to implement such an order, such an warrant.

Ibig sabihin, talagang buong mundo kalaban mo na yan.

Dahil usually, nagbibito sa ICC, either U.S., Russia, or China.

Pero kung papayag yung...

Yung Security Council ng United Nations, baka wala ka lang taguan.

Tingin ko, hindi naman aabot doon.

Dahil I'm sure, Russia or China...

At malabo yan. I thought you were referring to the Philippine National...

Yeah, yeah. Malabo. I don't see anything going there.

Yun lang ang parang president, kung talagang gusto mong hulihin, na wala masyadong problema.

Kaya tingin ko, it's very political.

Papayag ba ang ating gobyerno na papasukin?

It all redounds to that.

Kung papayag natin.

And to what degree other countries will also put pressure on BBM, diba?

I mean, I doubt U.S. since wala naman silang moral ascendancy sa issue na yan.

Kaya nga nung nasa Germany si BBM, nai-raise ni Schultz yung issue.

Yeah, because...

The Europeans are very keen sa ICC.

Hindi lang nakahouse sa kanila yun.

Kung hindi kasama sila sa mga... sa nagtulak niya na mabuo.

Yeah, exactly.

So at least the Europeans have something.

Although, of course, Germany has come under criticism in terms of the stance it gave on the ICJ issue.

Of course, that's the South Africa-Israeli.

I think the Americans are also very keen.

Dahil alam naman nila kung...

The China angle.

...duterte ay maapektuhan yung kanilang foreign policy ng bansa.

At sa ngayon, yung Pilipinas ay key sa kanilang pivot sa Asia.

Which we'll discuss in the next episode.

Kasi big, big things are happening.

Literally, Balikatan is coming.

And Trilateral Summit, Marcos, Kishida.

So, let's park it there.

Let's go back to this.

Kasi actually, I was hoping to raise it in the previous episode.

Pero, again, where does that leave Sara Duterte?

Right?

Will she eventually be put on the list of ICC?

I mean, sobrang aggressive yung intervention ni Sara in behalf of Kiboloy.

In a way, it kind of didn't work, right?

Tuloy pa rin yung warrant of arrest.

Does that show that Sara is being increasingly diminished?

And at the same time, marginal?

And potentially, could also be eventually targeted by this ICC investigation among others?

Well, una, siguro ito yung pinaka-sharpest na division between Sara and PBBM.

Marami silang plastika na ginagawa.

Marami silang mga drama na ginagawa na hindi naman sila magkaaway.

Pero ito kasi ay sinuportahan niya, clearly, yung si Pastor Kiboloy na clearly ay gustong pabagsakin si PBBM.

No?

Hindi siya nag-mimins ng kanyang words against PBBM.

At ikalawa, dumalo pa siya mismo sa isang rally na nagtetreteng magmarcha sa Malacanang

para puwersahin si PBBM na mag-resign o bumagsak.

Ang mga sigaw doon, wakasan, tapusin, ibagsak.

So, hindi ko alam paano niya papagpagin yan in her relationship with the President,

in her relation with the Cabinet.

In her relation with the Government.

Hindi ko nga maki-imagine paano siya dadalo sa isang Cabinet meeting

after ng kanyang pag-suporta kay Kiboloy at pagpunta niya doon sa liwasang rally.

No?

Kaya, pero, then again, yung ICC usually focuses on a few principles.

At mukhang kahit sa testimony ni Las Canas, kahit isinama niya si Sara sa extrajudicial killings,

allegedly,

ay, ah,

hindi naman, hindi ko sigurado kung isasama siya ng ICC.

Yung ICC naman, hindi pwedeng manduhan ng ating gobyerno.

Hindi pwedeng manduhan,

oy, isama niyo ito, ganyan-ganyan.

I doubt na magagawa yan.

Si Digong, si Bato, tingin ko mas klaro yan.

With Sara and Bongo, I'm not too sure.

No?

Dahil doon sa pagkakapresent,

they are not really the principals.

At hindi rin sila yung main implementor.

Kaya, pwede silang mataint

ng ganyang klaseng capital.

Kaso, kung didecisionan,

halimbawa ng ICC na akusado si Digong

ng Crimes Against Humanity,

kahit pa paano, tatamaan yung iba.

Lalo na yung magiging isang dosena

na isinama sa communication

earlier on during the time of Duterte

when he was still our president.

Medyo marami yan eh.

Hindi lang dalawang senador ang kasama dyan.

At meron ding Secretary of Justice na kasama.

Pero duda ako kung lahat yan ay isasama

dito sa international warrant

na malamang lumabas sometime this year.

Kaya, baka hindi pa maisama si Sara

based sa track record ng ICC.

Pero, she will definitely be damaged

pag lumabas yung international warrant.

But don't you think pwede rin ICC play them against each other?

Kung ayaw mo sumama dyan, ilaglag mo na yung

mga principles mo.

I mean, they can also do that, right?

I mean, police does that all the time, right?

Huli nila yung mid-level.

Bigyan kita ng ano, pero ilaglag mo yun

nandun sa taas, diba?

I mean, pwede rin mangyari yun, diba?

You can play them together, against each other.

Yes, pero siyempre, una,

ay iba rin yung relasyon nila kay Digong.

Halimbawa, si Bongo, parang tatay na yan.

Si Sara, tatay na talaga yan.

Ikalawa, ay siyempre,

para sila ay mag-turn state witness.

Ay kailangan makasama sila sa kaso, diba?

May ganong klaseng unang hakbang.

Kung hindi sila isasama sa kaso pa,

eh bakit sila mag-testify?

So, yun yung ikalawang variable

na mahalagang mangyari.

Kung kasama sila sa international warrant,

then you can start negotiations with them.

Dahil baka hindi naman sila yung primary accused, diba?

Yun naman yung nangyayari ng ganyang mga negosyasyon.

Yung primary accused,

yung hindi primary,

tetestigo laban sa primary.

Pero, kailangan muna i-accuse sila.

Kailangan muna i-accuse sila.

Right. Before going to the opposition,

kasi I want to also talk about the opposition,

what should they do in terms of preparing the ground?

Kasi obviously, gumagalaw na yung kabila.

Nasa defensive positioning na sila.

In fact, preemptive strike na yung ginagawa ni Digong

throughout the year, diba?

January at ta, February at ta, March at ta.

I mean, if you were to advise BBM,

or if you were to anticipate what BBM would do,

ano kayo magiging communication signaling niya?

Or some of the big visits or meetings he may be doing?

If alam na nila na in a matter of days or weeks,

there will be the warrant of arrest na being issued.

I'm sure there's a coordination.

Some sort of coordination happening behind the scenes.

Paano mo pa-planchayin yung the ground essentially, diba?

Kung ako si BBM,

una ay gagamitin ko yung aking initial na pagtutol sa ICC.

Na pumasok dito.

At gagamitin ko yung aking later na statement

na walang jurisdiction yung ICC

para sabihin na I've been resisting this all along.

Tutol ako dito all along.

Pero, pero, pero,

ayokong masira ako sa international community.

Ayokong mag-cherry-picking ng international law.

That was before lumabas yung international warrant.

Ngayon, nandito na yung international warrant.

What can I do?

At baka, parang sinabi ni Jim,

JV, naliwanagan siya dahil nakita niya yung ebidensya

in light of revisiting the evidence.

Diba? Parang ganun.

Baka mangyari ganun.

Baka hindi ebidensya ang kanyang inbox.

Pwede nga yung inbox niya,

international pressure.

Dahil ginagamit niya ang international law

para sa UNCLOS,

para sa West Philippine Sea.

Tapos dito, hindi niya gagamitin.

Baka masira siya.

Baka ma-weaken yung kanyang primary issue

ng foreign policy niya,

which is the West Philippine Sea,

which is UNCLOS.

I mean,

I'm sure he'll put it as a pressure.

Obviously, he wants to show

he's standing up for Philippine sovereignty.

I think definitely it will be something like,

oh, makinig kayo dyan.

Ah, yung mga tagaano dyan.

Pwede nga.

Pwede nga.

We want to be kind of a,

we want to stand for a rules-based order, right?

We are a law-abiding international citizen.

Yanon.

Diba?

Yan ang ibig sabihin ng,

I know, kasi yung pressure,

Yan ang ibig sabihin ng pressure.

The pressure of international

law, no?

At pwede niyang sabihin,

ay, nakaligtaan ko.

Sabi nga nga pala ng aking Supreme Court,

unanimously, may jurisdiction pala,

no?

Ang ICC sa Pilipinas.

So, ilabas ulit ng Supreme Court yung kanilang decision

to remind the President.

At ikatlo, the surveys.

No?

Dumadami yung mga Pilipino na gusto

na for Duterte

to have his day in court.

Gagawin niya in a positive way.

To have Duterte testify,

have his day in court,

sabihin yung kanyang posisyon, no?

Para ito ay matapos na.

Pwede niyang gano'n, eh.

I-spin, eh.

So, one, two, three.

Gano'n yung pwede niyang gano'n.

And importantly,

baka magkala ng shake-up, diba?

Because the current solicitor general

is the DOJ of former,

you know, diba, former president, right?

I think that could be another major signal.

Kung biglang pinalitan yung solicitor general,

more people associated with the former president

are purged or taken out of those positions.

I think that would be also a signal.

Hindi ba ayaw mangyari?

Exactly. That's what I'm saying.

I'm looking for, like, signals, eh.

Ano yung mga indicators na mukhang

napapalanchay nila.

They're gonna bulldozer the ground

for something big, no?

And, I mean, if this were to be around May or June,

do you think that gives still enough time

for, I don't know, I don't know how to put it,

dust the saddle?

How does it play into the midterm

elections calculus?

Well, dapat mangyari.

Far enough, close enough, like, you know.

Dapat mangyari yan before the filing of candidacy

in October, no?

Kung sakaling mangyari yan,

baka lumuwag ng kaunti

yung Senate race.

Na ngayon kasi masyadong mahigpit.

Halos wala nang pinagtatalunan, eh.

Meron kang pitong re-electionist,

meron kang pitong senador na babalik,

meron kang dalawang halos sigurado,

dalawang Tulpo brothers,

meron kang isang Isko Moreno

na halos sigurado,

tapos meron kang isang Duterte,

Baste or Digong,

na halos sigurado.

So kung mawawala yung isang Duterte

at mawawala yung isa o dalawang senador

sa PDP laban,

medyo magbubukas,

medyo mag-open, no?

At yung iba na nag-hesitate

na sumama sa administration,

baka nakapila na sa administration

dahil nakita nila yung power

ng administration vis-a-vis ICC.

So yung mga

nandun sa Duterte camp,

dalawang isip.

Dahil nakita nila

na itong si Duterte

na napaka-powerful,

ay pinag-a-adapt.

So maraming

value-added sa administration

kung sakaling papasok yung ICC.

Hindi lang dahil...

You hit many birds with one stone.

In that sense, yeah.

Unless they're not very intelligent.

Well, I hope they're wise at least.

You don't need to be very brilliant.

So I think that's perfectly set the tone

for our next discussion.

Pag-usapan naman natin,

ano pwede gawin ng civil society,

opposition,

because we're just talking about

Duterte and Marcos,

Duterte and Marcos,

but what about the civil society groups?

What should they do?

You're in touch with the victims.

Should the victims come out?

Should there be a much more proactive

reaching out to the Filipino people,

reminding them of the horrors, di ba?

Katulad naman nangyayari sa

desaparecidos in Argentina, di ba?

So pag-usapan natin in the next episode.

Thank you very much,

Secretary Llamas,

for another lively discussion.

And a very actually grim

and compelling topic.

Maraming salamat.

Anytime.