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West Philippine Sea or South China Sea, pinag-uusapan ngayon sa international media na possible pagmulan po ng unang hakbang ng ikatlong digmaang pandeigdigan.

Mga sangkay, ano nga ba ang possible na mangyayari? Talaga nga bang nakadistina ang South China Sea or West Philippine Sea para po sa isang katakot-takot na digmaan na anumang oras ay posibleng mangyari?

What's up mga sangkay? So eto, panuorin po natin yung isa po sa mga video or isa po ito sa mga documentary na nakita po natin mga sangkay patungkol po sa West Philippine Sea or South China Sea.

Marami po ang nagkiklaim dyan mga sangkay including us, Pilipinas at China, Vietnam at iba pang mga bansa.

Ngayon mga sangkay pinag-uusapan na dito nga daw possible na mag-umpisa ang unang level ng ikatlong digmaang pandeigdigan.

Well, panuorin po natin yan mga sangkay but before tayo magsimula, pakisubscribe po muna yung ating YouTube channel.

Dito sa mga nanonood po dito sa YouTube na hindi pa rin po na pag-subscribe, matik, alam nyo na ang inyong gagawin.

Pindutin nyo lamang po yung subscribe button na makikita sa ibaba ng video na to tapos i-click nyo yung bell at i-click nyo po yung all.

Sa mga nanonood naman po sa Facebook, ifollow nyo po ang ating Facebook page.

Dahil dito nag-upload po tayo ng mga mahalagang impormasyon tungkol po sa kaganapan ng ating mundo maging sa ating bansa.

Okay, guys.

Ito na, tignan po natin.

The South China Sea, destined for war?

Nai-destined na nga ba ang South China Sea or West Philippine Sea sa isang katakot-takot na digmaan?

3.5 million square kilometers of aquatic territory.

Trillions of dollars in natural resources.

Seven countries.

Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the United States.

Yan po yung mga nag-claim dyan.

Sa West Philippine Sea or South China Sea.

Okay? Yan po, mga sangkay. Hindi lamang po Pilipinas, hindi lamang China, kundi mayroon pong Vietnam, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia.

Pero ang may pinakamaraming nakuha dyan ay ang Vietnam.

Ngayon, ang tanong kasi dito, nai-destined na nga ba itong South China Sea for war?

Anong mangyayari, mga sangkay?

All with overlapping and mutually exclusive.

This is a recipe for war.

Is it a good idea for these countries to have submarines, warships, and fighter jets always on patrol?

Is World War III only a matter of time?

Naku, yan na nga po.

Is World War III.

Okay?

Sa ano lang, mga sangkay. At any moment, pwedeng mangyayari. At dito po mag-umpisa.

In this video, we'll dissect the tangled mess of claims surrounding the South China Sea.

Before we do, we'd like to take a look at the South China Sea.

Before we do, we'd like to take a look at the South China Sea.

Before we do, we'd like to take a look at the South China Sea.

Okay, forward pa natin sa parte ito.

Okay.

Okay.

Oceans are now battlefield.

Oceans are now battlefield.

The dispute lies at the center of many simmering conflicts between regional goings-on.

The dispute lies at the center of many simmering conflicts between regional goings-on.

The dispute lies at the center of many simmering conflicts between regional goings-on.

The dispute lies at the center of many simmering conflicts between regional goings-on.

The dispute lies at the center of many simmering conflicts between regional goings-on.

The dispute lies at the center of many simmering conflicts between regional goings-on.

With the exception, as always, of the United States.

Fishing rights, oil and gas drilling, and the strategically valuable islands might as well all be one super resource.

As what happens to one drastically affects the others.

The South China Sea is located south of China, southeast of Vietnam, and west of the Philippines.

It contains three main land features, the Spratly Islands, the Paracel Islands, and the Scarborough Shoal,

all of which have strategic value to the country's the South China Sea border.

Very interesting, no? Kasi itong video na to, may mga ano talaga siya.

May mga mahalagang impormasyon about dito sa West Philippine Sea.

As well as the United States.

Geopolitical power and the ability to be an influential player in the region and indeed the world

is predicated on control over all or part of the maritime territory.

Let's examine the natural resources of the South China Sea.

Ito na, natural resources.

One of the largest factors contributing to its immense importance in the region.

First, it boasts a diverse range of marine species, containing one-third of all biodiversity on the planet,

which allows for a lucrative fishing industry that accounts for 10% of the world's catch.

That's all well and good, but this economic cornucopia has also resulted in a tremendous ecological disaster,

with findings showing 40% of fishing stocks are collapsed or overexploited,

and 70% of the coral reefs are heavily depleted.

Moving from one unsustainable practice to another,

the second is a pair of resources, oil and natural gas.

Yan. Oil and natural gas.

Grabe ang lugar na ito.

Ito po yung pinag-iinteresan ng China ngayon, kaya gusto po nilang ma-invade ang lugar na yan.

Collaboration is key for...

Wait a minute. Tanggalin lang natin itong ads.

So, mga sangkay, maganda ito na malaman natin para mas maintindihan po natin itong buong West Philippine Sea.

Anong mayroon dyan? Sino yung mga nag-claim? At ano ang possible na mangyari?

Kung sakaling mangyayari po talaga, itong digmaan dyan. Sa karagatang yan.

Gas is the more abundant of the two, with an estimated yield of 266 trillion cubic feet.

Kanyang kadami, mga sangkay. Diyos miyo.

And it makes up 60 to 70% of the hydrocarbon resources in the region.

Its oil reserves, by comparison, are rather modest, with proven reserves clocking in at 7.7 billion barrels.

Grabe.

Although optimistic estimates put the number as high as 213 billion barrels.

Either way...

...it's profitable, and will therefore probably be fueling your car soon.

Last, but definitely not least, is its importance to trade.

Approximately $3.4 trillion worth of trade passes through the South China Sea.

Dyan po dumadaan mga sangkay, yung mga goods, yung mga produkto.

...accounts for one-third of global shipping.

Between this and the fact that 64% of its trade depends on it,

China considers this sea vital to its economy and overall security.

Kaya gusto nila makuha mga sangkay.

However, similar claims are made by the other countries in the region,

which, unsurprisingly, has contributed to rising tensions, both historically and today.

Speaking of the past, let's look at some background context with a very brief overview of how important trade in the South China Sea has been historically.

This body of water has been vital to trade for a very long time, dating back to the 7th century CE.

It facilitated communication, cultural exchange, and the trade of commodities.

It facilitated communication, cultural exchange, and the trade of commodities.

So, itong South China Sea or West Philippine Sea, noon pa man pala mga sangkay,

BC area na po ito.

Noong unang panahon pa.

So, until now mga sangkay, makikita po natin yung conflict na mayroon pong pinanguhugutan talaga.

Fast-forwarding to the mid-20th century,

China seized the Paracel Islands from the now-extinct South Vietnam in 1974.

These islands are important primarily for their fishing grounds and their strategic location

just 200 nautical miles from China's Hainan Island province.

Twenty years later, in 1994,

the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea,

which establishes a legal framework for all maritime activities,

established the international boundaries for territory, economic zones, and continental shelves.

This was an adequate start, but it didn't solve enough of the lingering territorial disputes.

So, in 2002, China and member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

agreed on a non-binding Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.

agreed on a non-binding Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.

agreed on a non-binding Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.

which essentially affirms a commitment to peaceful passage through the South China Sea,

as well as mandating that members resolve disputes diplomatically,

and it lays out a host of cooperation agreements on specific resources and exploration.

In 2009, China responded to a joint submission by Malaysia and Vietnam

to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf

by submitting a map containing the nine-dash line.

Yan po yung sinasabi ng Pilipinas na hindi makatarulong ang ginawa ng China.

and claimed approximately nine-dash line.

and claimed approximately nine-dash line.

and claimed approximately nine-dash line.

This is 90% of the area of the South China Sea.

With such an expansive claim,

one that strongly conflicts with those of several other countries,

we need to dive into the different claims and what they're based on.

Before we begin, just a quick note about Taiwan.

Taiwan's claims are identical to that of the People's Republic of China,

and based on the same evidence.

So, to avoid repetition, we won't give them their own section.

With that out of the way, we'll begin with the People's Republic of China.

The PRC's claim actually goes back thousands of years.

They assert that their ancestors were the first to discover the islands in the South China Sea,

and that Chinese governments throughout the ages have exercised continuous jurisdiction,

including economic development over the SCS and the islands it contains.

They also assert that not once during that time had their sovereignty over the SCS islands been challenged,

until relatively recently.

The islands under discussion are the Paracel and Spratly Islands.

We already mentioned where the Paracel Islands are located,

but where are the Spratly Islands, and why are they important?

Located north of insular Malaysia, and roughly halfway between the Philippines and Vietnam,

and spread out over a massive 409,000 square kilometers,

Lapit po sa ano, o.

Napit po sa ano, o.

Napakalapit lang sa Palawan.

China's interest in the islands is based on the available resources,

such as large oil and gas deposits and fishing.

They have strategic military value to China as well,

evidenced by the construction of military facilities including airstrips, radar systems, and naval bases.

Clearly, China sees these islands as a way to project power in the region.

Kung baga, ang nakikita dito ng China, ito itong lugar na to,

pwede talaga itong pwestuhan ng military.

Ngayon may mga anong,

mayroon sila diyan reklamasyon noong na diyan po nila binibuild up yung kanilang militar.

The aforementioned map with the nine-dash line has its roots in a map drawn by a Chinese cartographer in 1936,

which Taiwan adopted in 1947 and the PRC adopted in 1949.

It caused quite a stir at the time when China used the map in an official territorial assertion,

and is still a point of serious contention that the other claimant nations reject out of hand.

China claims 90% of the area,

so let's look at the map a bit closer,

and see for ourselves

Grabe no, 90% kiniklaim ng China sa buong area ng West Philippine Sea.

Sana all.

what possible issues this might cause.

Here's China's nine-dash line in red.

Actually, ginawa na po nilang 10 yan ngayon mga sangkay.

And now, here are all the exclusive economic zone, or EEZ, boundaries

for all the countries bordering the SCS as defined by UNCLOS.

Let's first note all the intersections between the nine-dash line and the EEZs of the other countries.

Mm-hmm.

Ina.

Two intersections with Vietnam's borders,

two intersections with Malaysia's borders,

two intersections with Brunei's borders,

and one intersection with the Philippines' border.

Okay, yan po.

Makikita niyo ito ha.

Ito yung tinatawag na exclusive economic zone ng mga bansa.

Ito yung sa Pilipinas.

Nakikita niyo yung blue.

Tapos itong Vietnam, ito po yung dilaw.

So, grabe no.

Tapos itong China, sinakop lahat.

Kung papansinin niyo mga sangkay, Vietnam and China halos nagkiklaim ng napakalawak na part.

Now, let's see all the intersections that are only between countries other than China.

Vietnam's border intersects Malaysia's border twice, Brunei's border twice, and the Philippines' border twice.

Grabe. Yan po yung Vietnam ha. Yan po sa Vietnam yan mga sangkay.

Pero yung China, mayroon pa. Mas malawak din po yun.

Malaysia's border, besides Vietnam, intersects with China.

Intersects Brunei's border twice, and the Philippines once.

Nagbabanggaan po yung mga exclusive economic zone, yung mga EEZ.

The only two countries whose borders do not intersect are Brunei and the Philippines.

It should be pretty clear that while China is making an expansive claim, they don't account for all the complexity in the region.

We can see that when the nine-dash line is removed, there remain several border disputes of which China is not a party.

And the big player becomes Vietnam.

Now, let's move on to the claims of the other countries except the border overlaps.

We'll focus only on the specific landmasses claimed.

We'll start with the smallest country in the region, Brunei.

Grabe, ang late lang ng kiniklaim ng Brunei.

Brunei specifically claims a reef known as the Louisa Reef, which is located in the Spratly Island Archipelago.

These islands, according to Brunei, fall within their defined portion of the continental shelf as well as their EEZ.

This reef is valuable mostly due to its amazing biodiversity, which fuels thriving tourism and fishing industries, and provides abundant subjects for pharmaceutical research.

Next, we'll look at Brunei's neighbor, Malaysia.

Malaysia claims Swallow Reef, which it has controlled since the 1983 occupation, and Amboyna Cay, which Vietnam controls.

Both of which are part of the Spratly Islands, and all of which are claimed by China.

The legal basis for Malaysia's claim comes from a continental shelf law from 1966.

A 1979 map, and their joint submission to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf in 2009.

Along with Brunei, Malaysia also claimed Louisa Reef.

But in 2009, the two countries entered into an agreement.

Ang dami nagkiklaim. Kaya mga sangkay, sinasabi po ng mga expert, magiging battlefield talaga itong South China Sea or West Philippine Sea.

Dahil sa dami nang kiklaim. Kasi ang China at saka Vietnam, sila po talaga yung nagkocross the line eh.

Yung may pinakabalawak na kiniklaim nila na sakop ng kanilang EEZ.

...regarding the reef, which to this day has not been made public.

Despite the secretive nature of the agreement, the conflict seems to have been solved to the satisfaction of both parties.

Next, we'll move northeast to the Philippines.

Yan na. Ito na yung sa atin. Mahalaga na maintindihan po natin.

The Philippines claims the Scarborough Shoal, as well as a northeastern group of the Spratly Islands known as the Kalayan Island Group.

The basis for their claim on Kalayan is...

The basis for their claim on Kalayan is...

...is based on an assumption that after Japan renounced their claim to the island in the 1951 Treaty of Peace,

they reverted to a legal state known as terra nullius, which means land that is legally unoccupied or uninhabited.

They go further in their assertion that Filipino explorer Tomas Cloma declared ownership over 33 features in the Spratly Islands in 1956,

and therefore no other country has a legitimate claim to them.

As for the Scarborough Shoal, they claim it passed to them via...

As for the Scarborough Shoal, they claim it passed to them via...

...the U.S. colonial territorial claims and that they inherited the Scarborough Shoal after gaining full independence from the U.S.

Finally, we'll move west to Vietnam.

Vietnam claims sovereignty over all or most of both the Paracel and Spratly Islands.

Karabi yung Vietnam. Lawak ng kiniklaim nila.

These claims are based on Vietnam's occupation of the islands since the 17th century, as well as documents from the era that prove as much.

The earliest of these documents dates from 1686, titled...

...Route Maps from the Capital to the Four Directions.

The other document Vietnam points to comes from an 1838 map called...

...The Complete Map of the Unified Dainam, which illustrates both island chains with lines that indicate ownership by Vietnam.

During French colonization, these island groups were administered as part of Vietnam,

and control of the islands was transferred upon France vacating the country.

Vietnam also claims that the 50 nations attending the San Francisco Conference all recognized without objection...

...their sovereignty over the Paracel and Spratly Islands.

Vietnam asserts that, at some point between the 70s and the modern day,

China used force to expel Vietnam and occupied the islands themselves.

However, the lack of specifics regarding this particular claim raised questions as to its authenticity.

Now that we know the players, their claims, and their evidence,

let's look at the recent developments including the pivot the U.S. has made in their Asia strategy.

Most of the recent news you're likely to have seen regarding...

...the South China Sea has involved warships and fighter jets from China and the U.S. interacting with each other...

Ito na, ito na mga sangkay, dito na po tayo papasok sa...

...conflict na possible magkaroon po ng digmaan sa mismong lugar ng West Philippine Sea or South China Sea.

...someway.

But those aren't the only tense encounters in the South China Sea.

Recently, it's mostly been the interactions between Filipino citizens and the Chinese military...

...which have generated the most headlines, aside from those involving the U.S.

These encounters, while tense, haven't resulted in any violent responses from either side.

Aside from the conference regarding the continental shelf, not much in the way of formal diplomacy has taken place recently.

And the issue has seemed to recede into the background as other, more dire problems have come to the fore.

This hasn't stopped the U.S. from pivoting its Asia strategy to combat what it sees as Chinese aggression in the region.

It does this without any acknowledgement of the legitimacy of China's territorial claims.

Instead, resorting to warmongering at home, laundered through the dutiful U.S. media.

Countless headlines over the past few decades claim that China's on a war footing.

And that various invasions are imminent.

And that the U.S. must, for nebulous reasons, intervene to protect the region from the menace of the evil CCP.

Note the unwillingness to use the universally recognized correct name, the CPC.

This is very plainly an attempt to get Americans to make a negative association...

between China and the U.S.'s last geopolitical rival.

This pivot and strategy began during the Obama regime and is, unsurprisingly, centered around military objectives.

Obama increased troop numbers in Australia, added naval response capabilities in Singapore, and worked to increase U.S. presence in the Philippines.

Despite China being cast as the aggressive bad guy, it should be noted that U.S. military activity and stationing of tens of thousands of troops in the region...

is not for the maintenance or protection of claims to territories in the SCS or surrounding regions, but to buoy U.S. allies in the region.

Obama claimed that there were other considerations.

The so-called pivot was meant to address democracy in the region.

The security of resources for allies to benefit the U.S.

And to balance the influence of China.

Though how the U.S. being involved achieves this balance isn't explained.

Overall, the pivot looks like nothing more than an elaborate intimidation campaign...

aimed at China on behalf of U.S. allies, whether they asked for it or not.

Haha.

We get it here, guys.

This is wider information that I hope we will follow.

It's like the U.S. is using their influence...

so that China can't dominate our world.

It's like that.

America is putting its allies...

out in the U.S.

Like in Singapore, Australia, here in the Philippines.

Japan, South Korea.

All of these allies...

were built up by the U.S.

so that China...

can't dominate.

But the allies are falling.

That's the other side of the story.

But China, if we look at it...

eh...

they are really very aggressive in the West Philippine Sea.

Given all the tensions, territorial tensions,

Given all the tensions, territorial tensions,

and the mere involvement of the United States,

it would appear that the region is destined for war.

It would appear that the region is destined for war.

With its future very much depending on the relationship...

between the U.S. and China given their size, military power, and nuclear capabilities.

between the U.S. and China given their size, military power, and nuclear capabilities.

So the future of the West Philippine Sea will depend on America and China.

It's not that it will depend on the Philippines, Taiwan, Brunei,

It's not that it will depend on the Philippines, Taiwan, Brunei,

It's not that it will depend on the Philippines, Taiwan, Brunei,

Malaysia, or Vietnam.

It will depend on the two huge countries that are fighting each other.

The U.S. against China.

Do you get the point now, Sangkay?

The U.S. against China.

China against the U.S.

China against the U.S.

Geopolitical foreign policy interests overlapping with economic incentives

have resulted in a tense situation that only good diplomacy can solve.

have resulted in a tense situation that only good diplomacy can solve.

have resulted in a tense situation that only good diplomacy can solve.

Which the United States has never been particularly fond of.

The interests of capital cannot be allowed to supersede the cause of peace

or the health of this critical biome.

In the meantime, all normal people can do is get organized.

We need to be ready for whatever the future brings.

We need to be ready, Sangkay.

And building dual power structures now is one step towards creating a better world.

Okay, we learned a lot here.

I hope that you got it, Sangkay.

I'll just ask you this.

What did you learn from this video?

What did you learn from the great revelation, Sangkay?

Okay?

Comment your opinions below.

I have a YouTube channel, Sangkay Revelation.

Look for it on YouTube.

Then click the subscribe, click the bell, and click call.

Okay, I'll say goodbye now.

Take care, everyone.

God bless everyone.