00:52.9
O isang parang documentary style mga sangkay.
00:57.9
Ang sangkay about ano ang possible na magiging senaryo nitong Taiwan or Pilipinas or Asia kung itong China ay sisimula na ang invasion.
01:13.4
Panoorin po natin ang sabay-sabay.
01:27.9
Both sides are preparing for a conflict which, if it took place, would likely include the U.S. in some capacity.
01:35.7
Involved din talaga ang America dyan.
01:38.0
Analysts say there are two causes for concern.
01:41.0
One is China's long-standing position that Taiwan is a part of China and that it would seek reunification by force if necessary.
01:50.4
Hindi naman po tago sa ating lahat yan na sinasabi ng China na no, hindi kayo magiging bansa dahil kayo ay bahagi na sa amin.
01:57.9
Gayung ay province lang namin. Ganoon po ang nangyayari, mga sangkay.
02:02.2
Pero ang Taiwan kasi, ayaw na po nila. Gusto na po nila magkaroon ng kalayaan sa kamay nitong China.
02:15.8
The other is its military build-up.
02:19.2
The gravity of a potential war has now become a commonplace discussion in the U.S. national security community
02:25.7
and raise questions about how a conflict would unfold.
02:29.3
To answer those questions, experts look to wargames.
02:32.3
Shall we play a game?
02:34.9
How can I ask you that?
02:36.2
How about mobile thermo nuclear war?
02:41.2
Unlike in the movies,
02:44.9
in real life, wargames resemble complex board games.
02:49.3
In 2022, the think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies,
02:53.7
developed a wargame for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan.
02:58.3
Most of the wargames that have been done about a conflict between the U.S. and China have been classified.
03:03.6
Rumors indicate very adverse outcomes,
03:08.1
but the assumptions and the mechanics are not well known because they're classified.
03:13.1
We wanted to do something that was entirely unclassified
03:17.1
so we could talk to a very broad audience.
03:20.4
Separated from China's southeastern coast by 100 mile-per-hour,
03:23.7
Taiwan is a self-ruled island that China claims as its own.
03:29.6
The Central Intelligence Agency estimates that Chinese leader Xi Jinping
03:33.9
has set 2027 as the deadline for his military to be ready to take the island.
03:39.3
Okay, panoorin natin mabuti mga sangkay.
03:41.3
Mas maigi na alam po natin yung impormasyon
03:43.5
just in case magkakaroon na po yung invasion itong China sa Taiwan.
03:48.4
Kasi sobrang lapit lang po ng Taiwan sa Pilipinas.
03:51.4
CSIS based its wargames on a high-profile,
03:53.7
unhypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan taking place in 2026.
03:58.4
CSIS's wargame is a turn-based strategy simulation.
04:02.5
After each turn is played,
04:04.1
players turn to combat result tables and computer programs to calculate combat outcomes.
04:09.4
Today, CSIS Research Assistant Chris Park will be helping facilitate gameplay.
04:15.2
Okay, yan po yung inaanon nila mga sangkay na possible magiging senaryo.
04:19.9
Tingnan po natin.
04:20.6
Players are divided into two sides.
04:22.4
The red team represents...
04:24.2
The blue team represents the U.S. and its allies.
04:27.7
Kasama po tayo dyan.
04:28.7
Of the 24 scenarios played,
04:30.7
the version you are about to see is the most likely.
04:34.2
As the game begins, the Chinese are moving their ships around Taiwan.
04:41.9
Kapalibutan ng Taiwan.
04:43.7
The United States is responding with its own aircraft,
04:47.7
with its bombers to attack the Chinese naval forces.
04:52.2
And also with its surface ships that have been sent forward as part of the U.S. effort to deter the conflict.
05:01.2
The United States also has submarines in the streets.
05:06.8
CSIS's wargame is played with three maps.
05:09.9
Two operational maps represent the regional operations of the U.S. and its allies and the Chinese forces respectively.
05:16.9
Another ground map is used for the operations on the island.
05:20.1
The Chinese have now...
05:22.2
invaded the island.
05:23.2
They've landed forces in the south.
05:25.2
Strategically, it would be better to land in the north.
05:28.2
That's where the capital is.
05:29.2
That's where much of the industry is.
05:31.2
The problem is that most of the Taiwanese military capability is also in the north.
05:37.2
That makes it very difficult to invade there.
05:40.2
Several of our teams tried to do that in some of the iterations.
05:44.2
It was just too difficult.
05:45.2
There were too many defending forces.
05:47.2
So most of the Chinese teams decided to land in the south.
05:51.2
The challenge there is to occupy the country and to take the capital.
05:56.2
They have to fight their way up the entire island.
05:59.2
The campaign looks much like the Allied campaign in Italy during the Second World War.
06:05.2
Bit by bit, very difficult terrain.
06:08.2
Here we see that the Chinese have landed.
06:11.2
First, we have troops landing on the beach.
06:15.2
There are only a handful of good beaches on Taiwan for landing troops.
06:20.2
These are indicated on the map.
06:23.2
And then, around the airfield, we have Chinese parachute and air mobile troops.
06:29.2
That is, troops coming in by helicopter.
06:33.2
The actual attack, for example, of China in Taiwan.
06:37.2
They're going to invade their territory.
06:40.2
And the purpose of doing that is if they can capture the airfield intact,
06:46.2
then they can fly in troops and supplies.
06:48.2
They're not dependent on...
06:50.2
...on ships and craft bringing troops and supplies across the beach.
06:55.2
After both sides play their turns,
06:58.2
the game is paused for an adjudication in which the losses for each side are calculated.
07:03.2
What we see is that the Chinese amphibious units have successfully gone ashore.
07:10.2
They've moved 10 kilometers inland and they eliminated one Taiwanese battalion out of the defenders.
07:20.2
Air mobile and parachute troops were less successful.
07:23.2
That's a much more difficult operation.
07:26.2
They landed around the airfield, eliminated one defending Taiwanese battalion.
07:32.2
But they lost three of their own battalions.
07:35.2
This is a very risky operation and they have not captured the airfield yet.
07:39.2
Once the losses for the last turn are calculated,
07:42.2
the second turn is played with dramatic results.
07:45.2
There's not much change on the U.S. side.
07:47.2
Tremendous change on the Chinese side.
07:49.2
Let's take a look.
07:50.2
The U.S. is continuing to focus on attacking the Chinese ships around Taiwan.
07:58.2
America and China are attacking the sea.
08:02.2
Trying to get through the picket screen there to get at the amphibious ships.
08:06.2
The submarines are still in the straits.
08:10.2
The one that was in the straits last turn has moved back to base in Japan,
08:15.2
Yokosuka, to reload.
08:17.2
The squadron that was outside the straits has moved in and a new squadron...
08:26.2
...has moved forward.
08:28.2
Now, looking at the Chinese side, here we have a lot of change.
08:31.2
And the big thing is that the Chinese have decided to strike Japan.
08:36.2
And they've decided to strike in a major way rather than just strike one base.
08:40.2
They decided to strike all of the Japanese bases with Japanese aircraft and U.S. aircraft.
08:47.2
Okay, so there's a lot of Japanese here.
08:50.2
What you're seeing here is the flow of Taiwanese forces from the north where they were initially stationed protecting the capital.
08:57.2
Now they're coming down both coasts to engage the...
09:01.2
Okay, this is China.
09:03.2
This red, this green, these are the Taiwanese.
09:08.2
Chinese landing troops in the south.
09:12.2
There are more amphibious units that have come across the beach here.
09:17.2
They are attacking the Taiwanese defenders.
09:20.2
There are a few more air mobile parachute units that have landed around the airfield.
09:26.2
They have surrounded the Taiwanese which are holding out on the airfield.
09:31.2
But both of these Chinese forces are attacking the Taiwanese.
09:36.2
After the second turn is played, the second adjudication round takes stock of the losses on both sides.
09:42.2
This has been a massive turn.
09:44.2
Both sides have taken very heavy casualties.
09:46.2
The results are that the Chinese lose one battalion over here and the Taiwanese also lose one defending battalion.
10:02.2
Around the airfield, the Taiwanese lose one defending battalion and the Chinese lose one attacking battalion.
10:11.2
We now fast forward about three weeks to the last turn of the game.
10:16.2
The Chinese have moved up the east coast.
10:20.2
But they've bumped into Taiwanese units that are coming down the east coast.
10:25.2
That movement has been slowed by the Chinese aircraft which have been attacking the transportation system.
10:31.2
But eventually those troops get there and they've formed a pretty solid line on the east coast.
10:37.2
The Chinese were able to clear the airport where the Taiwanese have been holding out.
10:44.2
And have moved forward here in the center.
10:48.2
They've bumped into a Taiwanese defensive line.
10:54.2
And that has been reinforced by fortifications.
11:00.2
They've moved into the city down here in the south.
11:04.2
It seems like China is already losing here.
11:07.2
But they are already inside Taiwan.
11:09.2
That's all they are.
11:10.2
They are also being surrounded by Taiwanese soldiers.
11:14.2
The reason for moving into the city is to capture the port.
11:26.2
Finally, we arrive at the last adjudication and the end of the game.
11:31.2
This scenario concludes with the Chinese established ashore but unable to expand their forces there.
11:39.2
Much of the Chinese amphibious fleet has been destroyed.
11:42.2
The United States and its partners have been attacking those ships relentlessly.
11:47.2
So their ability to bring troops and supplies onto the island has declined.
11:53.2
Over time, those forces will weaken.
11:57.2
The Taiwanese will push them back.
11:59.2
Most of them will end up as prisoners of war.
12:02.2
When we ran this game, we considered it a minor U.S. coalition victory.
12:08.2
It was a minor victory because
12:11.2
it was going to take a lot of time and there was going to be a lot of damage to Taiwan.
12:15.2
But it was a U.S. and coalition victory
12:18.2
because the Chinese were unable to establish themselves on Taiwan.
12:22.2
And Taiwan endured as an autonomous and democratic entity.
12:28.2
Although the U.S. and its allies came out on top in this scenario,
12:31.2
It is easy to say that China will not win here.
12:36.2
In the possible scenario that these experts can see.
12:40.2
The U.S. was not always successful.
12:42.2
There were some scenarios where the United States did lose the conflict.
12:47.2
A key requirement is the use of bases in Japan.
12:52.2
The United States has many bases there.
12:54.2
If it cannot use those bases,
12:57.2
then it has no way of getting its fighter and attack aircraft into the fight.
13:02.2
Regardless of the scenario,
13:04.2
any iteration of CSIS's war games found that the cost for all sides would be devastating.
13:10.2
The big takeaway from the project is that
13:13.2
the United States and its coalition partners can sustain
13:17.2
an autonomous and democratic Taiwan.
13:20.2
But it comes at great cost to the Taiwanese economy.
13:23.2
The U.S. and its partners lose very heavily.
13:25.2
But so do the Chinese.
13:27.2
Enough so that the grip of the Chinese Communist Party might be endangered.
13:33.2
So, here, my friends,
13:36.2
If we look at the possible scenario,
13:41.2
according to this,
13:42.2
maybe we can say that this person is a bit biased
13:46.2
because we can say it's America.
13:49.2
because of the war,
13:50.2
especially when talking about the Allied Forces,
13:56.2
the allies of the countries,
13:58.2
this is not just about strengthening.
14:01.2
The mind here needs to be used.
14:05.2
these are the strategies
14:08.2
Their strength will really come out.
14:12.2
there are really a lot of things to be done.
14:16.2
It's possible that we will really have a lot here in this war.
14:19.2
So, what is your opinion, my friends?
14:22.2
it will be true that China will immediately lose here?
14:25.2
In a possible scenario,
14:28.2
their attack or invasion of Taiwan is possible?
14:31.2
Well, just comment down below.
14:34.2
I have a YouTube channel,
14:35.2
Sangkay Revelation.
14:36.2
Look for it on YouTube.
14:37.2
If you've already seen it,
14:38.2
click the subscribe,
14:41.2
I'll say goodbye now.
14:43.2
God bless everyone.
