* AI ("Artificial Intelligence") subtitles on Tagalog.com are generated using "Whisper" by OpenAI (the same company that created ChatGPT and DallE2). Results and accuracy may vary.
* The subtitles do include errors occasionally and should only be used as a tool to help with your listening practice.
* You can request this website to create a transcript for a video if one doesn't already exist by clicking the "Request AI Subtitles" button below a video. Transcribing usually takes 30-40% of the length of a video to complete if there are no other videos in
the queue. For example, a 21 minute video will take 7-8 minutes to transcribe.
* Running a super fast cloud GPU server to do these transcriptions does cost money. If you have the desire and financial ability, consider
becoming a patron
to support these video transcriptions, and the other tools and apps built by Tagalog.com
00:00.0
So ano nga ba ang magiging possible na senaryo dito sa Asia kung sakaling itong China ay aatake na po tuon sa Taiwan na possible pagmulan po ng ikatlong digmaang pandaigdigan?
00:14.6
Well, tingnan po natin mga sangkay.
00:22.4
Hello, magandang oras po sa inyong lahat.
00:24.6
Anyway, bago tayo magpatuloy na, pakisubscribe po muna yung ating YouTube channel.
00:27.9
Ayan po, sa babaan ng video na ito, makikita niyo po yung subscribe button.
00:31.9
Pindutin niyo lamang po yan, tapos i-click niyo yung bell at i-click niyo po yung all.
00:36.0
Sa mga nanonood naman po sa Facebook, syempre huwag niyo po kayo lumutan na i-follow ang ating Facebook page.
00:41.1
Dito kasi nag-upload po tayo ng mga mahalagang impormasyon tungkol po sa mga kaganapan ng ating mundo, kasama na rin po ang ating bansa.
00:50.2
Ngayon, ito nga po mga sangkay. Tingnan po natin itong balita.
00:52.9
O isang parang documentary style mga sangkay.
00:57.9
Ang sangkay about ano ang possible na magiging senaryo nitong Taiwan or Pilipinas or Asia kung itong China ay sisimula na ang invasion.
01:13.4
Panoorin po natin ang sabay-sabay.
01:27.9
Both sides are preparing for a conflict which, if it took place, would likely include the U.S. in some capacity.
01:35.7
Involved din talaga ang America dyan.
01:38.0
Analysts say there are two causes for concern.
01:41.0
One is China's long-standing position that Taiwan is a part of China and that it would seek reunification by force if necessary.
01:50.4
Hindi naman po tago sa ating lahat yan na sinasabi ng China na no, hindi kayo magiging bansa dahil kayo ay bahagi na sa amin.
01:57.9
Gayung ay province lang namin. Ganoon po ang nangyayari, mga sangkay.
02:02.2
Pero ang Taiwan kasi, ayaw na po nila. Gusto na po nila magkaroon ng kalayaan sa kamay nitong China.
02:15.8
The other is its military build-up.
02:19.2
The gravity of a potential war has now become a commonplace discussion in the U.S. national security community
02:25.7
and raise questions about how a conflict would unfold.
02:29.3
To answer those questions, experts look to wargames.
02:32.3
Shall we play a game?
02:34.9
How can I ask you that?
02:36.2
How about mobile thermo nuclear war?
02:41.2
Unlike in the movies,
02:44.9
in real life, wargames resemble complex board games.
02:49.3
In 2022, the think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies,
02:53.7
developed a wargame for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan.
02:58.3
Most of the wargames that have been done about a conflict between the U.S. and China have been classified.
03:03.6
Rumors indicate very adverse outcomes,
03:08.1
but the assumptions and the mechanics are not well known because they're classified.
03:13.1
We wanted to do something that was entirely unclassified
03:17.1
so we could talk to a very broad audience.
03:20.4
Separated from China's southeastern coast by 100 mile-per-hour,
03:23.7
Taiwan is a self-ruled island that China claims as its own.
03:29.6
The Central Intelligence Agency estimates that Chinese leader Xi Jinping
03:33.9
has set 2027 as the deadline for his military to be ready to take the island.
03:39.3
Okay, panoorin natin mabuti mga sangkay.
03:41.3
Mas maigi na alam po natin yung impormasyon
03:43.5
just in case magkakaroon na po yung invasion itong China sa Taiwan.
03:48.4
Kasi sobrang lapit lang po ng Taiwan sa Pilipinas.
03:51.4
CSIS based its wargames on a high-profile,
03:53.7
unhypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan taking place in 2026.
03:58.4
CSIS's wargame is a turn-based strategy simulation.
04:02.5
After each turn is played,
04:04.1
players turn to combat result tables and computer programs to calculate combat outcomes.
04:09.4
Today, CSIS Research Assistant Chris Park will be helping facilitate gameplay.
04:15.2
Okay, yan po yung inaanon nila mga sangkay na possible magiging senaryo.
04:19.9
Tingnan po natin.
04:20.6
Players are divided into two sides.
04:22.4
The red team represents...
04:24.2
The blue team represents the U.S. and its allies.
04:27.7
Kasama po tayo dyan.
04:28.7
Of the 24 scenarios played,
04:30.7
the version you are about to see is the most likely.
04:34.2
As the game begins, the Chinese are moving their ships around Taiwan.
04:41.9
Kapalibutan ng Taiwan.
04:43.7
The United States is responding with its own aircraft,
04:47.7
with its bombers to attack the Chinese naval forces.
04:52.2
And also with its surface ships that have been sent forward as part of the U.S. effort to deter the conflict.
05:01.2
The United States also has submarines in the streets.
05:06.8
CSIS's wargame is played with three maps.
05:09.9
Two operational maps represent the regional operations of the U.S. and its allies and the Chinese forces respectively.
05:16.9
Another ground map is used for the operations on the island.
05:20.1
The Chinese have now...
05:22.2
invaded the island.
05:23.2
They've landed forces in the south.
05:25.2
Strategically, it would be better to land in the north.
05:28.2
That's where the capital is.
05:29.2
That's where much of the industry is.
05:31.2
The problem is that most of the Taiwanese military capability is also in the north.
05:37.2
That makes it very difficult to invade there.
05:40.2
Several of our teams tried to do that in some of the iterations.
05:44.2
It was just too difficult.
05:45.2
There were too many defending forces.
05:47.2
So most of the Chinese teams decided to land in the south.
05:51.2
The challenge there is to occupy the country and to take the capital.
05:56.2
They have to fight their way up the entire island.
05:59.2
The campaign looks much like the Allied campaign in Italy during the Second World War.
06:05.2
Bit by bit, very difficult terrain.
06:08.2
Here we see that the Chinese have landed.
06:11.2
First, we have troops landing on the beach.
06:15.2
There are only a handful of good beaches on Taiwan for landing troops.
06:20.2
These are indicated on the map.
06:23.2
And then, around the airfield, we have Chinese parachute and air mobile troops.
06:29.2
That is, troops coming in by helicopter.
06:33.2
The actual attack, for example, of China in Taiwan.
06:37.2
They're going to invade their territory.
06:40.2
And the purpose of doing that is if they can capture the airfield intact,
06:46.2
then they can fly in troops and supplies.
06:48.2
They're not dependent on...
06:50.2
...on ships and craft bringing troops and supplies across the beach.
06:55.2
After both sides play their turns,
06:58.2
the game is paused for an adjudication in which the losses for each side are calculated.
07:03.2
What we see is that the Chinese amphibious units have successfully gone ashore.
07:10.2
They've moved 10 kilometers inland and they eliminated one Taiwanese battalion out of the defenders.
07:20.2
Air mobile and parachute troops were less successful.
07:23.2
That's a much more difficult operation.
07:26.2
They landed around the airfield, eliminated one defending Taiwanese battalion.
07:32.2
But they lost three of their own battalions.
07:35.2
This is a very risky operation and they have not captured the airfield yet.
07:39.2
Once the losses for the last turn are calculated,
07:42.2
the second turn is played with dramatic results.
07:45.2
There's not much change on the U.S. side.
07:47.2
Tremendous change on the Chinese side.
07:49.2
Let's take a look.
07:50.2
The U.S. is continuing to focus on attacking the Chinese ships around Taiwan.
07:58.2
America and China are attacking the sea.
08:02.2
Trying to get through the picket screen there to get at the amphibious ships.
08:06.2
The submarines are still in the straits.
08:10.2
The one that was in the straits last turn has moved back to base in Japan,
08:15.2
Yokosuka, to reload.
08:17.2
The squadron that was outside the straits has moved in and a new squadron...
08:26.2
...has moved forward.
08:28.2
Now, looking at the Chinese side, here we have a lot of change.
08:31.2
And the big thing is that the Chinese have decided to strike Japan.
08:36.2
And they've decided to strike in a major way rather than just strike one base.
08:40.2
They decided to strike all of the Japanese bases with Japanese aircraft and U.S. aircraft.
08:47.2
Okay, so there's a lot of Japanese here.
08:50.2
What you're seeing here is the flow of Taiwanese forces from the north where they were initially stationed protecting the capital.
08:57.2
Now they're coming down both coasts to engage the...
09:01.2
Okay, this is China.
09:03.2
This red, this green, these are the Taiwanese.
09:08.2
Chinese landing troops in the south.
09:12.2
There are more amphibious units that have come across the beach here.
09:17.2
They are attacking the Taiwanese defenders.
09:20.2
There are a few more air mobile parachute units that have landed around the airfield.
09:26.2
They have surrounded the Taiwanese which are holding out on the airfield.
09:31.2
But both of these Chinese forces are attacking the Taiwanese.
09:36.2
After the second turn is played, the second adjudication round takes stock of the losses on both sides.
09:42.2
This has been a massive turn.
09:44.2
Both sides have taken very heavy casualties.
09:46.2
The results are that the Chinese lose one battalion over here and the Taiwanese also lose one defending battalion.
10:02.2
Around the airfield, the Taiwanese lose one defending battalion and the Chinese lose one attacking battalion.
10:11.2
We now fast forward about three weeks to the last turn of the game.
10:16.2
The Chinese have moved up the east coast.
10:20.2
But they've bumped into Taiwanese units that are coming down the east coast.
10:25.2
That movement has been slowed by the Chinese aircraft which have been attacking the transportation system.
10:31.2
But eventually those troops get there and they've formed a pretty solid line on the east coast.
10:37.2
The Chinese were able to clear the airport where the Taiwanese have been holding out.
10:44.2
And have moved forward here in the center.
10:48.2
They've bumped into a Taiwanese defensive line.
10:54.2
And that has been reinforced by fortifications.
11:00.2
They've moved into the city down here in the south.
11:04.2
It seems like China is already losing here.
11:07.2
But they are already inside Taiwan.
11:09.2
That's all they are.
11:10.2
They are also being surrounded by Taiwanese soldiers.
11:14.2
The reason for moving into the city is to capture the port.
11:26.2
Finally, we arrive at the last adjudication and the end of the game.
11:31.2
This scenario concludes with the Chinese established ashore but unable to expand their forces there.
11:39.2
Much of the Chinese amphibious fleet has been destroyed.
11:42.2
The United States and its partners have been attacking those ships relentlessly.
11:47.2
So their ability to bring troops and supplies onto the island has declined.
11:53.2
Over time, those forces will weaken.
11:57.2
The Taiwanese will push them back.
11:59.2
Most of them will end up as prisoners of war.
12:02.2
When we ran this game, we considered it a minor U.S. coalition victory.
12:08.2
It was a minor victory because
12:11.2
it was going to take a lot of time and there was going to be a lot of damage to Taiwan.
12:15.2
But it was a U.S. and coalition victory
12:18.2
because the Chinese were unable to establish themselves on Taiwan.
12:22.2
And Taiwan endured as an autonomous and democratic entity.
12:28.2
Although the U.S. and its allies came out on top in this scenario,
12:31.2
It is easy to say that China will not win here.
12:36.2
In the possible scenario that these experts can see.
12:40.2
The U.S. was not always successful.
12:42.2
There were some scenarios where the United States did lose the conflict.
12:47.2
A key requirement is the use of bases in Japan.
12:52.2
The United States has many bases there.
12:54.2
If it cannot use those bases,
12:57.2
then it has no way of getting its fighter and attack aircraft into the fight.
13:02.2
Regardless of the scenario,
13:04.2
any iteration of CSIS's war games found that the cost for all sides would be devastating.
13:10.2
The big takeaway from the project is that
13:13.2
the United States and its coalition partners can sustain
13:17.2
an autonomous and democratic Taiwan.
13:20.2
But it comes at great cost to the Taiwanese economy.
13:23.2
The U.S. and its partners lose very heavily.
13:25.2
But so do the Chinese.
13:27.2
Enough so that the grip of the Chinese Communist Party might be endangered.
13:33.2
So, here, my friends,
13:36.2
If we look at the possible scenario,
13:41.2
according to this,
13:42.2
maybe we can say that this person is a bit biased
13:46.2
because we can say it's America.
13:49.2
because of the war,
13:50.2
especially when talking about the Allied Forces,
13:56.2
the allies of the countries,
13:58.2
this is not just about strengthening.
14:01.2
The mind here needs to be used.
14:05.2
these are the strategies
14:08.2
Their strength will really come out.
14:12.2
there are really a lot of things to be done.
14:16.2
It's possible that we will really have a lot here in this war.
14:19.2
So, what is your opinion, my friends?
14:22.2
it will be true that China will immediately lose here?
14:25.2
In a possible scenario,
14:28.2
their attack or invasion of Taiwan is possible?
14:31.2
Well, just comment down below.
14:34.2
I have a YouTube channel,
14:35.2
Sangkay Revelation.
14:36.2
Look for it on YouTube.
14:37.2
If you've already seen it,
14:38.2
click the subscribe,
14:41.2
I'll say goodbye now.
14:43.2
God bless everyone.
