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RISE OF TULFOS: SARA ALL SECOND NALANG!??
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Richard Heydarian VLOGS
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00:00.1
uturuhu
00:08.0
hum
00:30.0
Ayan
00:44.9
Ayan
00:46.9
Kamusta kayo dyan mga kameta
00:48.9
Mag live tayo mga bilisan
00:50.2
Mukhang wala naman tao dito
00:51.7
Masyado tayong magagawin
00:53.8
Kasi di natin alam kung mahabol natin
00:55.7
Mamayang gabi on time
00:56.7
So sabi kayo habol ko ito
00:58.9
Ito na guys
01:00.3
So nung Saturday pinag-usapan natin
01:02.7
Yung Senate race
01:06.3
At sino yung mga number one dyan
01:08.0
Of course sabi natin
01:09.3
By a significant margin
01:11.6
Si Erwin Tulfo Apua
01:13.3
Ay number one sa Senate
01:15.1
As far as pre-election surveys are concerned
01:18.6
Of course things could still change
01:20.5
Nakita natin last time
01:21.5
Number one si Rafi Tulfo for the Senate
01:23.7
Sa surveys until
01:25.1
Na Robin Hood siya
01:26.8
Robin Hood Padilla siya
01:28.4
And then we said na
01:29.4
Yung isa pang interesting dun sa pre-election survey
01:31.6
Nakita natin sa Pulse Asia is
01:33.2
Itong posibilidad na
01:35.1
Not one but two Tulfos
01:36.7
May join the other Tulfos there
01:39.0
So theoretical there could be up to three Tulfos
01:42.3
Dyan sa Senado
01:44.1
At that would be a totally different scenario
01:47.5
If ever that happens
01:48.6
Marami na tayo nagkaroon ng
01:49.9
Mag-inam
01:51.0
The Aviliars
01:52.2
Magkapatid
01:53.4
The Caetanos
01:54.4
Ayan yung mga magkapatid din na iba
01:56.4
The good one
01:57.2
The not so good one
01:58.3
Yung mga magkapatid din na iba
01:58.4
Yung mga sila J.V. O'Hersito
01:59.8
Tsaka yung kapatid niya
02:01.8
So marami tayo mga ganon
02:03.8
Ang hindi
02:04.8
Hindi pa
02:05.6
Ang hindi pa nangyari sa ating minamahal na bayan
02:08.4
Ang ating pinaka high level na demokrasya sa mundo
02:10.9
Ay itong posibilidad na tatlong kapatid
02:13.7
Ang magkakaroon ng pwesto dyan sa Senado
02:16.6
And this is interesting because the Senate is supposed to be a bastion of independence
02:20.6
The Senate is supposed to be our most august highest chamber of our legislature
02:25.6
The Senate in many ways is supposed to be the
02:28.4
Clash of Titans
02:29.9
The breeding ground
02:31.4
The
02:32.3
Is that correct?
02:33.5
The platform for future presidentials
02:37.1
Or where the future presidents of the country could be trained
02:40.6
So at least yun yung historical na pagtingin natin sa Senado
02:43.9
But yun nga, eto na
02:45.0
Based on the surveys we're saying there could be up to three Tulfos
02:48.3
If both Ben and Erwin win
02:50.0
Si Erwin hindi lang siya shoo-in
02:52.1
He's increasingly cementing his position as the number one senator for 2025 elections
02:58.3
But again, as I said, maybe the surprise that happened
03:00.8
Baka magkaroon na naman ng Robin Hood-Padilla effect sa next year's elections
03:04.4
Now the other thing we have to also look at is the presidential survey
03:09.1
Is the presidential survey
03:11.3
Sorry guys, may bata, may ngay
03:13.0
There's a presidential survey
03:15.1
At eto na, na-confirm yung sinasabi ko
03:17.6
Actually, my source is another authoritative survey
03:20.6
Hindi ko nang sabihin anong survey agency yan
03:22.5
Na sinabi natin the other month pa lang na si Rafi Tulfo po
03:27.3
Ay ahead of the election
03:28.3
Ahead of Sara Duterte
03:29.4
Not for one quarter, but actually two quarters
03:32.2
And this was already a month ago
03:34.0
And now potentially we could see a situation where by Rafi Tulfo
03:37.1
Will be ahead of Sara Duterte for multiple quarters
03:40.0
More than one quarter
03:41.0
Although, pagtingin ko dun sa ibang survey sa
03:44.3
Ay, munti ko sinabi tuloy ano yung survey dyan
03:46.8
Kasi confidential sinabi sa akin
03:48.6
Medyo mas malayo yung agwat
03:50.7
Dito sa nakita natin ang survey ngayon
03:52.7
Sorry, nadistract ako sa bata
03:55.0
Muntik ako na, ano
03:56.0
Munti
03:57.4
Muntik ko binuking yung sources natin
04:01.7
Makakalang tayo ng ano dyan
04:03.2
Yan, so na-confirm na po
04:05.3
Na-confirm na po
04:10.1
Na-confirm na po
04:13.1
Itong sinasabi natin na si Rafi Tulfo na po
04:17.5
Ang number one
04:18.9
Alright, ito, ito, ito
04:20.5
Number one na po ang si Senator Rafi Tulfo
04:23.3
Sa Pulse Asia survey
04:24.6
So at least I know now two authoritative surveys
04:27.2
Whereby hindi na si
04:28.7
Hindi na Sarah All
04:30.1
Hindi na Sarah All
04:31.8
Ano na, Tulfo All na
04:34.4
Actually maganda na yan ha
04:35.9
Tulfo All na, hindi na Sarah All
04:38.1
So while two Tulfos are pasok dun sa top
04:41.9
Sa Magic 12
04:42.9
And at least one of them
04:44.3
Is in a very good position to top the race
04:47.2
Like here
04:47.8
Balito ko nga yung isa pang kapatid na kuya nila
04:51.1
Baka may balak din
04:52.0
Hindi ko alam paano nila ikasa yan
04:53.3
Kung marami yan
04:53.8
But here
04:56.1
As far as Rafi
04:57.2
Tulfo is concerned
04:58.0
I mean personally
04:59.0
Sa tingin ko
04:59.8
He has been doing very very well sa Senate
05:02.5
As I said
05:03.0
I've been historically quite skeptical of the Tulfos
05:05.6
For reasons that you can check
05:07.6
Ang dami namin mga podcast
05:09.2
With Leloy
05:10.3
With Ronald
05:11.5
With Mark Gamboa
05:13.5
Ang dami namin mga vlog series on the Tulfos
05:15.9
But in fairness
05:17.6
You have to be fair
05:18.4
You have to be fair
05:19.1
You know
05:19.4
When you see the performance of the person
05:21.5
Alam ko na
05:23.4
May hurt na naman yung mga
05:25.0
Mga DDS na kasama natin
05:27.2
Huwag naman sa akin
05:28.2
Ang kayo ma-hurt
05:28.8
Alam ko naman na-hurt kayo
05:29.8
Kasi natatalo yung manok nyo
05:31.3
At alam ko na-hurt lang kayo
05:32.9
Dahil
05:33.3
Hindi na DDS yung mga ibang kasama niya ngayon
05:36.6
Okay
05:37.4
Now going back to Rafi Tulfo
05:39.6
In fairness to the guy
05:40.5
I mean the way he walked out on Bato
05:42.4
When Bato obviously was not doing a proper job
05:45.1
In terms of holding certain people accountable
05:47.1
When Bato was lawyering
05:48.5
For certain people that he should not have lawyered
05:51.0
When Bato was not doing his job as a senator
05:53.9
Clueless naman daw talaga
05:56.6
I mean
05:56.9
Sabi niya clueless sa maraming bagay
05:59.0
But anyway
05:59.3
Nag-walk out siya
06:01.4
Dun sa Cynthia Villar issue
06:03.2
No one dared to talk about
06:06.8
Yung mga alam niya na
06:07.6
Alam niya na
06:08.6
Si Rafi lang karoon ng tapang na gano'n
06:13.0
Now obviously
06:13.6
We expected him to be more vocal
06:16.2
Dun sa issue ni Kiboloy
06:17.7
But at the very least
06:18.6
Ang ginawa niya is
06:19.3
He voted
06:19.7
You know
06:21.3
In the right direction
06:22.5
Right?
06:23.4
At hindi niya ginawa
06:24.7
Yung mga ginawa nila
06:25.5
Robin Hood Padilla
06:26.9
Among others
06:27.8
Now I can go on and on
06:29.2
Also dun sa issue ng
06:30.4
Depet
06:31.8
Yung mga kakulangan sa depet
06:33.2
And I think
06:34.1
One thing that is very interesting
06:35.6
With Rafi Tulfo is that
06:36.7
He did not
06:37.9
Engage in direct attacks
06:40.3
On Saudi Duterte
06:41.1
If anything
06:41.6
When there was a lot of attacks
06:43.4
On Saudi Duterte
06:44.1
On the confidential fund issue
06:45.5
On the West Philippines issue
06:46.6
Among others
06:47.1
Si Rafi Tulfo
06:48.3
Hindi nakialam
06:49.0
So that actually shows you
06:50.2
A certain degree of strategic astuteness
06:52.6
Because he's choosing his battle
06:54.5
And he doesn't want to come off
06:55.8
As if he's preempting
06:56.8
The issue of the West Philippines issue
06:56.9
The 2020 elections
06:58.2
He's not
06:58.6
He's trying to
06:59.5
Make sure that he doesn't come off
07:00.9
As if he's grandstanding
07:01.9
For 2020 elections
07:03.3
Even though alam ko
07:04.4
Maraming mga kadidiyas natin
07:05.6
May ibang vloggers
07:06.4
Nakasama natin dyan
07:07.3
Yan ang accusation nila
07:08.7
Kay Rafi Tulfo
07:09.5
But you know
07:10.0
What's grandstanding
07:11.1
To yung mga haters
07:12.9
Or grandstanding
07:13.8
Dun sa mga natatamaan
07:14.8
Is actually
07:15.9
You know
07:17.3
Proactive
07:18.0
Proactive intervention
07:19.5
Now the other thing
07:21.5
That actually was interesting
07:22.5
Also with Rafi Tulfo
07:23.6
Over the past year or so
07:25.0
Is also yung interventions
07:25.9
Na in behalf of the
07:26.9
Philippine National Security
07:28.1
Not only hindi siya nag
07:29.7
I love you China
07:31.0
Hindi siya nag
07:31.9
Protect me China
07:32.8
No
07:33.1
He also questioned
07:34.3
Yung presence ng China
07:35.8
Sa ating critical infrastructure
07:37.1
Particularly
07:37.7
Particularly dun sa grid natin
07:39.4
National grid natin
07:40.4
So I think that's a very
07:41.7
Very important thing
07:42.7
Now
07:43.5
As I said
07:44.5
We can have a long conversation
07:46.7
About Tulfos
07:47.9
Including Rafi Tulfo
07:49.1
I asked him during our interview
07:51.3
About due process
07:52.5
How the Tulfo method
07:53.8
Sometimes
07:54.6
To put it mildly
07:55.9
May not necessarily
07:56.8
Drive dun sa ating conceptions
08:00.1
Of you know
08:01.4
You know
08:02.2
Having the 100% compliance
08:05.3
With due process and all
08:06.3
He had his explanation for that
08:07.7
So please check that out
08:08.6
But let me tell you this thing
08:10.9
I find it extremely hypocritical
08:13.9
For certain people
08:15.4
Who supported the former president
08:17.1
Who openly called
08:18.2
For what is tantamount to AJK
08:20.9
I find people who openly supported
08:24.1
A deadly drug war
08:26.1
Dun sa dating presidente
08:28.8
I find it super hypocritical
08:31.4
And questionable
08:31.9
For people who supported
08:32.9
A president in the past
08:34.8
Who openly questioned the constitution
08:37.2
Openly questioned the supreme court
08:38.8
Openly called for overthrow
08:40.5
Of our democratic process
08:41.6
To suddenly come out now
08:42.8
And be anti-Tulfo
08:44.3
Because suddenly they are
08:45.5
Holding up the cudgels
08:47.6
For rule of law
08:48.7
I'm sorry
08:49.4
Wala kayong moral ascendancy whatsoever
08:51.6
Okay
08:52.2
And let's be absolutely clear
08:53.9
While I'm here
08:56.1
May have some concerns
08:57.4
With the inartful ways
08:59.1
By which people like Rafi Tulfo
09:01.2
Perhaps deal with
09:02.4
Issues of justice
09:05.2
Among others
09:06.5
And there were mistakes
09:08.1
I think it's pretty clear to us
09:09.4
There's sometimes na
09:10.2
Medyo
09:10.8
The way they handed the shows
09:13.0
Medyo may kumula
09:13.8
But
09:14.9
But never sila nag-call
09:17.2
For AJK
09:18.0
Never sila nag-openly call
09:19.2
For defiance of the constitution
09:20.5
At base sa alam natin
09:21.8
Actually Rafi Tulfo
09:23.5
Has been working with different mayors
09:24.9
Including progressive mayors
09:26.0
Like Vico Soto
09:26.7
To help yung mga tao
09:28.0
Na may pangangailangan
09:29.4
Pagdating sa austesia
09:30.6
So let me be absolutely clear
09:32.1
About that
09:33.8
Now having said that
09:35.2
I think mahalaga na
09:36.5
Na bigyan natin ng pansin
09:39.1
Bakit ang daming tao
09:42.0
Sa tingin nila
09:43.5
Mga Tulfos are the future
09:45.8
In fact they're not the future
09:47.0
They're already the present
09:48.2
In many ways
09:49.1
They're already
09:49.8
They're already here
09:50.9
I mean they're already
09:51.9
A political force to reckon with
09:53.5
And of course
09:54.4
There's some also
09:55.0
Asking a question na
09:55.8
Bagong dynasty ba to
09:57.2
Or something
09:57.6
But before that
09:59.2
Let's just first look at the numbers
10:00.9
I think the numbers are very interesting
10:02.4
Before we look at the
10:03.3
Whole sociological phenomenon
10:05.0
Behind the rise of the Tulfos
10:06.6
Let's look at the numbers
10:09.8
I think that's very important
10:11.2
Because
10:11.6
At least suppose Asian numbers
10:13.6
The race is quite close
10:15.0
Alright
10:15.6
The race is quite close
10:17.0
But it's the sub-demographics
10:21.4
Where things get very very interesting
10:23.2
So just to give you a rundown guys
10:25.8
Unfortunately
10:27.8
I don't have a high quality version
10:29.4
Of this survey
10:30.0
Kaya hindi ko siya ma-post dito
10:31.5
But
10:32.4
Just to give you an idea
10:34.2
So ito yung numbers
10:36.1
Okay
10:36.4
Zoom zoom natin
10:37.5
So ito yung numbers
10:39.2
Na nakikita natin
10:40.8
Ito yung mga numbers
10:42.8
So
10:43.9
Number 3 pa rin si Len Robredo
10:46.8
And then malayang malayo
10:49.4
Single digits na lang si
10:50.6
Aimee Marcos
10:51.2
At 5%
10:52.0
Manny Pacquiao
10:52.7
At 3%
10:53.5
So halos wala
10:54.4
So
10:54.9
So
10:55.1
So
10:55.2
So
10:55.2
So
10:55.2
So
10:55.2
So
10:55.3
So
10:55.3
So
10:55.3
So
10:55.4
So
10:55.4
So
10:55.8
This is more or less
11:03.3
Consistent dun sa mga earlier surveys
11:05.6
Na nakita natin sa SWS
11:06.9
Whereby
11:07.5
It's really Sarah
11:09.6
Rafi
11:10.2
And
11:11.1
Lenny
11:11.9
Looks like
11:12.5
The third option here
11:15.2
Now the interesting thing for me here
11:17.3
Is yung breakdown
11:18.5
Yung breakdown
11:19.6
Now obviously we had separate vlogs
11:21.6
This whole Risa versus Lenny thing
11:23.4
My sense is if Lenny steps back
11:25.3
And pushes for Risa
11:26.8
Then Risa
11:27.3
I think her numbers will push up
11:29.1
And perhaps it's better that
11:30.3
I'm sure
11:31.9
Hindi sila tatakbo sabay
11:33.2
There's no way that Risa and Lenny
11:34.9
Will run together
11:35.7
So there's a very high possibility
11:37.4
That with the margin of error
11:38.7
3 to 5%
11:39.6
If one of them doesn't run
11:41.4
Especially if Lenny doesn't run
11:42.6
A lot of these points
11:44.1
Double digits at least
11:45.7
Will go to Risa Antiveras
11:47.2
Right?
11:47.6
Not all
11:48.3
But at least a significant part of it
11:50.1
Depending on how well Lenny
11:51.5
Will endorse
11:53.3
How sincerely
11:54.1
How consistently
11:55.1
How sustainably
11:56.0
Endorses Risa Antiveras
11:57.7
And of course a lot will also
11:58.7
Depend on how Risa Antiveras
11:59.8
Is gonna position herself
12:00.9
In the coming years
12:01.5
Pero eto ha
12:02.1
So halos statistically tied ngayon
12:05.5
Si Rafi Tulfa
12:06.3
Tsaka Sara Duterte
12:07.3
Which is significantly different
12:08.9
Kung mahalala nyo
12:09.7
More than a year ago
12:10.6
Dun sa SW survey
12:11.8
Ang laki ng agwat
12:13.9
Between Sara Duterte
12:15.3
So
12:15.5
Was at around
12:20.6
A third of the vote
12:22.3
And then si Rafi Tulfa was
12:25.1
Below 20%
12:26.6
Right?
12:27.3
Below 20%
12:28.2
So Rafi Tulfa went from
12:29.9
You know
12:31.5
Low teens number
12:33.4
Like 15, 16, 17, 18, 20%
12:35.5
Now he's at 35%
12:37.6
Right?
12:38.3
So that's a significant
12:39.4
Significant jump
12:40.4
Sa NCR
12:41.4
He's at 41%
12:43.0
Well ahead of everyone else
12:44.8
So 26% lang si Sara Duterte
12:47.1
14% si Lenny
12:48.5
Aba!
12:49.2
Si Amy
12:49.6
Dito siya pinakamataas
12:51.0
Ay hindi, hindi rin
12:52.3
Sa balance
12:53.1
6%
12:53.9
So ang
12:54.7
Ang
12:54.9
Ang
12:55.1
Laki ng agwat
12:55.9
Ni Rafi Tulfa
12:56.8
Pagdating sa
12:57.9
National Capital Region
12:59.1
Sa balance
12:59.9
Luzon
13:00.5
It's
13:01.7
It is almost the same
13:04.1
Pagdating sa agwat
13:05.6
So 14 points
13:06.9
Spread difference
13:08.5
Si Rafi Tulfa
13:09.2
At 37%
13:10.6
23% naman
13:12.0
Si Sara Duterte
13:13.5
So that's huge
13:14.3
Huge double digit
13:15.3
So with the margin of error
13:16.3
3 to 5%
13:17.1
You're looking at
13:17.7
Potentially up to
13:18.9
20 points
13:19.7
Difference between the two
13:21.5
Lenny's at around
13:22.7
13%
13:23.7
So Lenny around
13:24.4
14%
13:24.9
13%
13:25.6
So Lenny's actually
13:26.4
Stronger
13:27.2
In NCR
13:28.3
Than the other regions
13:29.9
We're gonna go to
13:30.6
Mindanao soon
13:31.2
Because that's really
13:32.0
Where the big difference
13:32.8
Comes in
13:33.2
So in Visayas
13:34.0
Rafi's even stronger
13:37.1
At 46%
13:38.8
And 20% lang
13:39.9
Si Sara Duterte
13:40.9
18% si Lenny
13:42.2
So
13:42.4
Interestingly
13:43.6
Sara is pretty
13:45.0
Is relatively weaker
13:46.3
Dito sa Visayas
13:47.3
46% si Rafi
13:48.7
16% si Lenny
13:50.3
In fact
13:51.0
Lenny and Sara Duterte
13:52.2
Are almost
13:53.0
Statistically tied
13:54.3
With the
13:54.9
3 to 5%
13:55.7
Margin of error
13:56.5
Pagdating sa Visayas
13:57.6
Now this is where
13:58.8
Sara Duterte
13:59.5
Keeps her competitiveness
14:01.5
In Mindanao
14:02.8
Sara Duterte
14:03.6
Is 72%
14:05.3
Now this is not
14:06.8
The 95 to 100%
14:08.7
Support that she gets
14:09.7
Dun sa
14:10.2
Dun sa mga satisfaction
14:11.5
Ratings niya
14:12.4
But still
14:13.5
She has still
14:14.5
Cornered the Mindanao vote
14:15.8
It's 72%
14:17.4
Rafi Tulfo
14:18.4
Is only at 18%
14:19.8
And Lenny is
14:21.3
2%
14:22.5
Which is
14:22.9
With the margin of error
14:23.8
Could be even 0
14:24.6
Right?
14:24.9
So
14:25.6
Sara is
14:26.8
Really weak
14:27.8
Sa Visayas
14:28.5
Comparatively
14:29.1
She's just
14:29.9
20%
14:30.8
Versus 18% of Lenny
14:32.0
And 46% of
14:33.5
Rafi Tulfo
14:34.6
In balance
14:35.5
Luzon
14:35.9
She's slightly more competitive
14:37.4
At 23%
14:38.6
Up to 26%
14:40.1
At National Capital Region
14:41.3
Tulfo goes all the way
14:43.0
Up to 41%
14:44.3
At National Capital Region
14:45.3
And Lenny at 14%
14:46.9
So that's quite an interesting
14:48.3
Dynamic
14:49.7
Where Sara comes in strong
14:51.6
Is in Mindanao
14:52.6
72%
14:53.5
Versus only 18%
14:54.7
For Rafi Tulfo
14:55.6
And Lenny at 2%
14:56.5
So this is the
14:58.0
This is
14:59.3
Kung baka kung
15:00.4
Ross Belt was for Trump
15:02.3
In 2016 elections
15:04.3
This is
15:05.4
Ito yung
15:06.6
Or Florida
15:07.3
If I can put it
15:08.7
This is the Florida
15:09.8
Of Sara Duterte
15:10.9
Right?
15:12.1
Although Florida
15:12.8
You know
15:13.4
It's
15:14.1
Even Florida is
15:15.7
As red as it has become
15:17.2
After being quite purple
15:18.8
For quite some time
15:19.5
But I'm just giving you
15:20.7
An idea of
15:21.1
Ito na yung
15:22.1
Bailey Week niya talaga
15:23.1
Kitang-kita mo
15:23.9
Ang laki nung
15:24.7
Magwat
15:25.1
Ni Sara
15:26.6
From everyone else
15:28.2
72%
15:29.6
Pag sinamang mo
15:30.4
Lahat ng mga ibang candidates
15:31.5
Or potential candidates
15:32.7
They're not even
15:33.7
A third
15:35.4
Right?
15:36.4
Of
15:36.8
Of
15:37.1
Of her votes
15:38.2
And base
15:38.7
So it's the Mindanao vote
15:39.9
That is pushing her up
15:41.1
And keep her
15:42.0
Very very competitive
15:43.6
In Visayas
15:44.7
She's statistically tied
15:45.7
With Lenny
15:46.2
Which is quite quite
15:47.0
Interesting things
15:47.8
To look at
15:48.7
Now in terms of
15:49.9
Socio-economic class
15:51.3
ABC
15:52.5
Which is very small
15:53.6
You know
15:54.1
I mean
15:54.4
Ilang percent lang
15:55.4
Single digit lang
15:56.3
A ABC
15:56.9
5%
15:57.6
Right?
15:58.8
Sa ABC
15:59.3
Interestingly
16:00.6
Rafi Tulfo
16:01.5
Is the strongest
16:02.3
At 36%
16:03.8
Again
16:04.5
Ang laki na
16:05.2
Magwat
16:05.5
14 points
16:06.6
14 points
16:08.1
Kumpara
16:08.8
Kay Sara Duterte
16:09.9
Was at 22%
16:11.2
Now interestingly
16:12.1
Lenny and Sara Duterte
16:13.6
Are statistically tied
16:14.7
Among the ABC voters
16:16.0
So remember
16:16.8
The ABC are the
16:18.0
Wealthiest
16:18.6
Most educated
16:19.4
Filipinos
16:20.7
Based on
16:21.0
I mean
16:21.3
I'm not saying
16:22.1
They're the best
16:22.7
I'm just saying
16:23.3
In terms of
16:23.9
Just statistical
16:24.7
I know
16:25.5
But it's a very small
16:27.6
Small portion
16:29.0
Of the overall voters
16:30.1
So you're looking
16:31.2
At few percentage there
16:32.9
And ABC
16:33.4
To be honest
16:33.9
As I say
16:34.3
It's really C
16:35.4
Because A and B
16:36.8
Are inside
16:37.2
Das Marinas
16:37.8
Forbes
16:38.3
And yung mga ganun
16:39.0
Ang area na
16:39.7
Hindi naman maabutan
16:40.9
Ng mga
16:41.4
Pulse Asia
16:43.5
Sobrang malabo
16:44.8
Magkaroon ng
16:45.4
Malawakan na survey
16:47.0
Sa mga areas na yan
16:47.9
Diba?
16:49.2
So this is really C
16:50.0
So interesting
16:50.4
If you look at the
16:50.9
Filipino quote unquote
16:51.7
Middle class
16:52.5
And we can have
16:52.9
A long discussion
16:53.9
About what middle class is
16:55.3
Majority of them
16:56.4
Actually are
16:57.2
Or actually
16:58.3
The largest portion
16:59.7
Are for
17:00.3
Rafi Tulfo
17:01.1
And you put
17:01.6
Rafi and Lenny together
17:02.9
That's around
17:03.9
You know
17:04.8
50%
17:05.4
But interestingly
17:06.1
Sara still has
17:07.0
More than Lenny
17:07.7
Among ABC
17:08.5
So the idea
17:09.5
That the middle class
17:10.5
And then all
17:11.0
Are just for
17:11.6
Opposition
17:12.4
Or for pink
17:13.2
It misses the point
17:14.8
It misses the point
17:15.7
Actually
17:16.1
Just in the
17:17.3
In fact
17:18.1
In the last two elections
17:19.1
Both BBM and Sara
17:20.5
Also did better
17:21.2
In the ABC
17:21.8
Also with Digong
17:23.1
No?
17:23.3
In 2016
17:24.4
I'm not talking about
17:27.0
The visual things you see
17:28.3
Yung mga people
17:29.0
Yes
17:29.8
Maraming tao pumunta
17:30.7
Sa you know
17:31.8
Sa mga rallies
17:32.7
And all of that
17:33.5
But ilan tao yan
17:35.1
300,000
17:35.8
1 million
17:36.4
Right?
17:36.9
So you're
17:38.0
Missing the millions
17:38.8
Of others
17:39.5
Right?
17:40.8
Whose vote
17:41.9
Is reflected in the
17:43.0
In the final tally
17:44.7
And also reflected
17:45.4
In the scientific surveys
17:47.0
Now
17:47.6
Sa class E
17:48.9
Ito yung mga
17:49.6
Pinakamahirap natin
17:50.5
Mga kababayan
17:51.3
A lot of them
17:52.3
Rural areas
17:53.2
46%
17:55.6
Is for Rafi Tulfo
17:56.5
So kitang-kita nyo
17:57.4
Ang lakas
17:57.9
Ang dating ng mga Tulfos
17:58.9
Especially Rafi Tulfo
18:00.1
Doon sa mga
18:00.8
Pinakamahirap natin
18:02.0
Ng mga kababayan
18:02.6
And I think this has
18:03.3
A lot to do with
18:04.1
This image of the Tulfos
18:05.4
As a kind of a savior
18:06.8
As a kind of a
18:07.7
Tough man
18:08.7
As a kind of a
18:09.3
Real Robin
18:10.2
I'm not Robin
18:11.0
You know like
18:12.0
He's our
18:13.1
He's gonna be our fighter
18:14.7
Right?
18:15.2
For justice and all of that
18:16.2
So dito medyo mataas
18:17.5
Ang numbers niya
18:19.3
Sara is reflected
18:20.4
Weaker at 28%
18:21.9
And only
18:22.6
10%
18:23.2
For Lenny here
18:24.5
But
18:25.2
Where's Sara again?
18:27.2
So two things actually
18:28.2
Are pushing up
18:28.8
Sara Duterte's numbers
18:29.9
One is in Mindanao
18:31.1
Which is
18:31.5
72%
18:33.0
Well
18:33.6
Way ahead of
18:34.5
18% of Rafi Tulfo
18:36.1
But the other one is
18:37.4
D
18:37.8
Which is more or less
18:39.6
Quote-unquote
18:40.4
Masa
18:41.0
And a significant portion
18:43.4
Of the Philippine urban poor
18:44.7
This is actually
18:46.3
The biggest
18:47.1
Section of our voters
18:50.3
I think between
18:50.9
55 to 60%
18:52.3
Based on the earlier
18:53.1
Numbers I saw
18:54.1
So even if
18:55.2
Kulela at si
18:55.9
Or ang laki na agwat
18:57.4
Ni Rafi Tulfo
18:58.4
Kay Sara
18:59.1
Pagdating sa E
19:00.2
And ABC
19:00.9
36 to 22
19:02.2
46 to 28
19:03.5
Pagdating sa D
19:05.1
Which is the biggest portion
19:06.3
Of the voters
19:06.9
55 to 60%
19:08.8
Sara is ahead
19:10.3
Of Rafi
19:10.8
Very slightly
19:11.6
Within margin of error
19:12.6
Is 37 to 33
19:14.2
But because
19:15.0
The D is the biggest
19:16.2
Portion
19:16.8
Of the voters
19:18.2
Yung few points
19:20.4
Advantage ni Sara dyan
19:21.8
Tumulong sa kanya
19:23.1
Para makahabol
19:24.2
Para makahabol
19:25.3
To keep the race
19:26.3
Competitive
19:27.0
At more or less
19:28.3
Statistically tied
19:29.2
Right
19:29.8
But Rafi Tulfo
19:31.2
Is now
19:31.9
At least based on
19:33.4
Two surveys
19:34.1
I know
19:34.4
Two authoritative
19:36.1
Surveys I know
19:36.8
Is now the frontrunner
19:40.6
Is now the frontrunner
19:41.9
Just as his younger brother
19:43.4
Erwin
19:43.9
Is also the frontrunner
19:45.7
For the Senate race
19:47.9
Obviously different dynamics
19:49.0
Because in Senate
19:49.7
12 can come in
19:50.9
So it's a question
19:51.4
Of who's number one
19:52.3
While in the President's race
19:53.1
Presidency
19:53.4
President's elections
19:54.8
Only one person can win
19:56.0
So Tulfo's essentially
19:57.6
Topping both
19:58.5
This is Pulse Asia
19:59.4
I know also
20:00.7
In another authoritative survey
20:01.7
It's the same
20:02.4
So Tulfo's are topping
20:03.8
Both the Senate race
20:04.7
And also
20:05.3
2028 race
20:06.7
Which is again
20:07.4
Quite quite interesting
20:08.5
So yung 60%
20:09.8
Unity
20:10.2
Whatever na nakita natin
20:11.7
In the last elections
20:12.5
That has essentially
20:13.8
Splintered
20:14.9
And if you
20:15.4
Pag sinama mo yung numbers
20:16.8
Ni Rafi
20:17.5
At numbers ni
20:18.5
Sara
20:19.7
You can see that
20:20.5
Yung 60% ish
20:21.9
Napunta sa unity
20:23.1
Noong 2022
20:24.4
Is now
20:25.1
Clearly split
20:26.2
Between these two candidates
20:27.8
With the rest of the candidates
20:29.4
Sharing the 30-40%
20:30.8
Left
20:31.2
Out there
20:31.8
Now there are movements here
20:32.9
There's dynamism here
20:33.9
There are many
20:34.4
Many things that could change
20:36.0
But the trajectory
20:37.0
Is very important
20:37.8
So Tulfo went
20:39.4
From a distance second
20:40.3
Now to number one
20:41.4
Lenny has kept
20:42.5
Her position
20:43.2
As number three
20:43.9
But as I said
20:44.4
Things could change
20:45.1
If she doesn't run
20:45.8
It remains to be seen
20:46.9
If the numbers go to Riza
20:48.0
Or numbers go to Rafi
20:49.1
Who knows
20:50.3
Yung mga bagay
20:51.2
Na dapat titignan natin
20:52.4
So marami mga
20:53.1
Moving parts dito
20:54.1
But then again
20:55.5
Ang trend lines po
20:56.4
Ay klarong-klaro dito
20:57.5
Na the Tulfos
20:58.7
Are in a position
20:59.5
Of ascendancy
21:00.2
And mukhang
21:01.5
Very strategic
21:03.1
And effective
21:03.6
Yung ginawa ni Rafi Tulfo
21:05.3
Na hindi niya
21:05.8
Hine-head on
21:06.6
Inaaway si Sara Duterte
21:08.1
And she's
21:08.8
He's leaving it
21:09.7
To the others to do it
21:10.5
While ang focus niya
21:12.0
Ay dun sa mga issues
21:13.3
Kung saan
21:13.9
Well at least
21:15.1
He comes off as
21:16.1
A champion of the people
21:17.2
Whether ito yung mga issue
21:19.0
Ng teacher
21:20.0
Students
21:20.8
Depth ed issues
21:22.4
Whether ito yung
21:23.1
China's
21:24.0
Presence
21:25.0
In our critical infrastructure
21:26.5
Ito ay
21:30.2
Whether ito ay
21:53.1
A major impact
22:06.1
On the country
22:07.0
And the people
22:08.2
Of the world
22:08.4
Yes
22:08.9
A long way to go
22:10.0
Correct
22:10.5
But I'm just saying
22:11.4
The trend line is clear
22:12.6
Hindi na
22:13.5
Frontrunner
22:14.4
Si Sara Duterte
22:15.3
Hindi na siya
22:16.2
Shoo-in
22:16.7
For 2028
22:17.7
It's now
22:18.7
A competitive race
22:19.7
And so far
22:20.3
The Tulfos
22:21.0
Are in a pole position
22:22.2
Um
22:22.9
So
22:23.1
We don't know
22:24.0
What's gonna happen
22:24.5
By 2028
22:25.2
A lot can change
22:26.7
Until then
22:27.8
But one thing
22:28.9
That is very clear
22:29.6
Right now
22:30.0
Is that
22:30.5
Nawawala
22:31.3
Yung grit
22:32.0
Ng mga Dutertes
22:33.0
Forget about now
22:34.7
But even for
22:35.9
Potential succession question
22:37.4
Well not potential
22:38.2
But constitutionally
22:39.3
Constitutionally mandated
22:40.7
Succession question
22:42.1
Come 2020
22:42.9
So that's
22:43.6
That's very very important
22:44.6
Now to
22:45.0
To keep this
22:45.9
Very short
22:46.8
Kasi kailangan
22:47.2
Nakamabal sa other things
22:48.5
Um
22:49.3
One of my problems
22:52.6
Dun sa mga
22:53.1
Opposition analysis
22:54.9
Mga ganun
22:55.4
Is palati sinasabi
22:56.4
Ah fake news yan
22:57.7
Disinformation yan
22:58.7
Well last time I checked
22:60.0
It's not like
23:01.9
Nagfa-fake news
23:02.9
Sa mga Tulfos
23:03.6
Kaya sikat sila
23:04.3
We all
23:05.1
Know very well
23:06.0
Bakit ang lakas
23:07.2
Ng kanilang appeal
23:08.1
Sa taong bayan
23:09.2
Because there's this perception
23:10.2
That they're very helpful
23:11.4
And they're filling in the gaps
23:12.6
As far as
23:13.6
Our justice system
23:14.4
Our broken justice system
23:15.6
Is concerned
23:16.1
My good friend
23:17.2
Historian Lisandro Claudio
23:18.4
Has also done a fantastic job
23:19.6
Of analyzing how
23:20.4
Sa
23:20.6
At least
23:21.2
Para sa kanya
23:22.0
Mga Tulfos
23:23.1
Should have been actually
23:23.7
Picking
23:24.3
Much earlier than now
23:25.8
In fact
23:26.3
Nauna pa sila kay Digong
23:27.4
In terms of building
23:28.3
This kind of macho
23:29.6
You know
23:30.7
You know
23:31.3
Justice man image
23:32.7
At the national level
23:34.0
At the national level
23:35.2
So nung
23:36.1
Nanalo si Digong
23:37.0
Wilang presidente
23:37.6
2016
23:38.1
I naturally always thought
23:39.5
As the Tulfos
23:40.2
As
23:40.6
That
23:41.5
If
23:41.8
Since hindi na sila
23:43.3
Naging precursor
23:44.3
Um
23:45.2
Or potential
23:46.3
Precursors
23:47.3
You know
23:48.4
Psychologically
23:49.3
Politically
23:49.8
But also
23:50.4
Electorally speaking
23:51.4
Successors
23:52.5
Yun yung nakita natin
23:53.5
So
23:53.7
This is where
23:54.8
Hindi pwede
23:55.5
Idaan na lang lahat sa
23:56.4
Disinformation
23:57.1
Disinformation
23:57.7
You also have to
23:59.4
Understand voters
24:00.6
You have to understand
24:01.5
The demand side
24:02.8
Of politics
24:03.6
Hindi pwede yung supply side
24:05.3
Supply side is what?
24:06.5
You're always looking at
24:07.3
Information fed to the people
24:08.8
Media
24:09.7
What the politician do
24:11.2
But you also have to understand
24:12.3
What people want
24:13.5
Based on their needs
24:14.8
Circumstances
24:15.7
And their perceptions
24:16.9
Of what they need
24:17.9
As far as leadership is concerned
24:19.6
Right?
24:20.1
Again
24:20.3
As I said
24:21.8
Uh
24:22.5
We can have
24:22.9
A long debate
24:23.9
About what we believe
24:24.8
Is best for senate
24:25.7
Obviously
24:26.8
Uh
24:27.4
In theory
24:28.6
Best people for senate
24:29.6
Are people like
24:30.3
Dean Jokno
24:31.7
No?
24:32.2
Who not only understands
24:33.6
The law very well
24:34.5
And the constitution
24:35.2
But also understands
24:36.4
Um
24:37.2
Yung mga pangailangan
24:38.1
Natin sa
24:39.5
Legislatura
24:40.2
But when it comes
24:41.9
To the voters
24:42.4
You have to
24:42.9
You have to understand
24:43.6
From the perspective
24:44.2
Of the voters
24:44.7
From the perspective
24:45.2
Of the voters
24:45.8
Yung mga binaboto nila
24:46.6
Sa senado
24:47.2
Or presidency
24:48.3
For that matter
24:48.9
Are people that they believe
24:49.7
Will help them
24:50.5
Will save them
24:51.3
Right?
24:52.5
And the thing is
24:53.8
Because
24:55.5
Ang baba ng kumpiyansa
24:56.8
Ng tao
24:57.3
Sa ating demokrasya
24:58.5
Dahil hindi ito
24:59.5
Nag-deliver
25:00.0
I mean
25:00.6
After all of those years
25:01.6
Of reformist administrations
25:03.1
Ang daming mga Pilipino
25:04.6
Na may problema
25:05.3
Sa justicia
25:06.0
May mga
25:06.5
Daming problema
25:07.4
Sa due process
25:08.2
Ang daming mga kaso
25:09.3
Na hindi resolved
25:10.0
Ang daming mga
25:11.1
Pre-trial detainees
25:12.3
Ang kulang
25:12.8
Sobrang konti
25:13.8
Yung investment
25:14.5
Sa judiciary natin
25:15.7
So ang daming problema
25:16.8
Sa ating justice system
25:17.8
All those years
25:18.5
Even when yung mga
25:19.3
Reformists ay nasa
25:20.5
Nasa pwesto
25:21.3
So
25:21.9
So
25:22.5
Naturally
25:22.9
You understand that
25:23.5
A lot of Filipinos
25:24.3
Have lost confidence
25:25.5
And trust
25:26.1
Dun sa
25:26.8
Quote-unquote
25:27.6
Democratic institutions
25:28.7
It's really that frustration
25:30.5
That has made them
25:32.2
More and more
25:33.0
Amenable
25:33.9
To have someone like
25:34.6
Duterte
25:35.1
Or someone like
25:36.0
Even the Marcos' back
25:37.2
But the Tulfos
25:38.6
Have been there
25:39.2
For quite some time
25:40.1
And they have been
25:40.7
Constantly exposing
25:41.9
Numa's shortcomings
25:43.0
Or supposedly
25:43.9
Exposing Numa's shortcomings
25:45.4
Sa ating
25:46.3
Law enforcement system
25:48.3
Sa ating justice system
25:49.6
And for all criticism
25:51.1
We can make
25:51.8
Of their approach
25:52.5
Their tactics
25:53.4
Their tone
25:54.0
Whatever
25:54.7
And by the way
25:57.2
They never called for EJK
25:58.3
They never called for
25:59.4
Dictatorship
26:00.4
They never went against
26:01.4
Our democratic system
26:02.4
Openly and all
26:03.1
And please check also
26:04.6
Yung de-clarification
26:05.5
That Rafi Tulfo made
26:06.6
When I asked him
26:07.3
When you look at
26:08.5
All of those factors
26:09.4
When you look at
26:10.2
All of those factors
26:11.5
You can see
26:13.7
Because
26:14.5
Walang tiwalang
26:15.6
Mga ating kababayan
26:17.1
Sa ating mga
26:17.8
Institusyon
26:18.5
Ang nangyari
26:19.9
They're just
26:20.2
Nagahanap sila
26:20.9
Ng mga
26:21.2
Figures
26:21.5
Ating mga
26:22.3
Figures
26:22.5
Savior figures
26:23.7
And the Tulfos
26:24.7
With all the macho-ness
26:26.2
With all of the
26:26.7
Proactive interventions
26:28.0
With all of the
26:28.9
Good positioning
26:30.0
That Rafi has been doing
26:31.9
In Senate
26:32.3
The good positioning
26:33.0
That Erwin Tulfo did
26:34.5
As DSWD
26:35.4
Secretary, etc
26:36.3
That has just
26:38.2
Endured them
26:38.9
More and more
26:39.3
To the people
26:39.8
Not to mention
26:40.6
Yung relatability
26:41.9
Perceptions of compassion
26:44.0
At tama eh
26:45.6
You know
26:46.1
Like charisma
26:46.8
Is always a combination
26:47.9
Of fear and compassion
26:49.3
Right?
26:50.6
Fear in a sense
26:51.2
Ito ay matapang
26:52.3
Natapang
26:52.3
Na tao
26:52.7
He's gonna fight for us
26:54.5
And there's kind of
26:56.4
A reverence
26:57.0
For that person
26:57.7
But also
26:58.5
Compassion
26:59.2
Meaning relatable
27:00.0
Itong tao na to
27:00.8
And he's gonna fight for me
27:01.9
Or she's gonna fight for me
27:02.9
But of course
27:03.4
Unfortunately
27:04.4
Medyo patriarchal tayo
27:05.8
And all of that
27:06.6
Our notions of strength
27:08.5
Are very
27:09.1
Male-oriented
27:10.4
Male-dominated
27:11.2
Very macho
27:12.1
In that sense
27:12.7
So for all
27:13.4
Curiousness of toxic masculinity
27:14.8
All curiousness of tone
27:15.8
And everything that you may have
27:17.0
The reality is that
27:18.4
More and more
27:19.0
Filipinos
27:19.6
See
27:20.3
The Tulfos
27:21.7
As their
27:22.2
Answer
27:22.6
To the shortcomings
27:23.5
And defaults
27:24.1
In our system
27:24.6
Which is what
27:25.2
Kaya nga
27:26.2
Ito yung parate ko sinasabi
27:27.5
If you don't take care
27:29.2
Of your democracy
27:30.0
This is what's gonna happen
27:31.4
Because hindi pwede
27:32.5
Hanggang salita lang
27:33.5
Hindi pwede sa
27:34.2
Hanggang mga abstract concept lang
27:36.0
Hindi pwede
27:36.8
Hanggang mga batas lang
27:38.2
Tapos hindi na-implement
27:39.2
If you do that
27:40.6
People lose confidence
27:41.8
In democracy
27:42.5
And there's so many
27:44.2
Scholarly works
27:45.0
That show
27:45.5
Filipinos are ambivalent
27:47.1
Towards their democracy
27:48.4
And therefore
27:49.2
They're open to more
27:50.1
Authoritarian leaders
27:50.8
I cite a Pew survey
27:52.2
Mga oras
27:52.6
Gallup poll
27:53.3
I've showed
27:53.9
Throughout all these years
27:55.3
Na more and more
27:56.3
Filipinos are open
27:57.8
To authoritarian leaders
27:58.8
Because napaka-baba
28:00.0
Yung kanilang kumpiyansa
28:01.0
Sa demokrasya
28:02.0
And I cannot blame them
28:03.3
Right?
28:04.0
All those years
28:04.7
Na we had reformist administration
28:06.0
Yes, there were many
28:06.9
Good improvements
28:07.6
I admit it
28:08.6
But the reality is that
28:10.2
Hindi tayo nagkaroon
28:11.0
Ng inclusive development
28:12.1
The reality is that
28:13.0
Yung mga trapos
28:13.7
Nag-continue to dominate
28:15.0
The political system
28:16.4
Noong 2015
28:17.4
Up to 80%
28:18.3
Of the Congress
28:18.8
Was dominated by dynasties
28:20.2
Noong 2011
28:21.2
Up to
28:21.7
76%
28:23.0
Of newly created growth
28:24.0
Was taken on by
28:24.8
40 richest families
28:26.0
So even in the best
28:26.9
Reformist era we had
28:28.0
Which is Pinoy
28:28.6
You still had
28:29.7
Tremendous amount
28:30.6
Of concentration
28:31.3
Of wealth and power
28:32.3
Which alienated
28:33.5
A lot of people
28:34.1
Not to mention
28:34.8
All of the shortcomings
28:35.6
We had in our justice system
28:37.0
So unfortunately
28:38.3
Naihirapan pa rin
28:40.4
Ang opposition
28:40.8
To gain back
28:42.5
The confidence of people
28:43.9
But as I said
28:44.7
That's where Riza comes in
28:46.2
And I think Riza
28:46.9
Has been doing
28:47.4
Some interesting stuff here
28:48.6
But as we see
28:49.8
Hindi pa rin klaro
28:51.3
Kasi sinasabi
28:51.7
Talagang
28:52.0
Ano eh
28:52.6
Sino talagang
28:53.4
Ano ng opposition
28:55.5
So that's a completely
28:56.6
Different discussion
28:57.3
We can have later on
28:58.2
But in the meantime
28:59.0
You have to understand
29:00.0
You cannot just
29:01.2
Attack the voters
29:02.1
You cannot just
29:02.9
Demean them
29:03.8
You cannot just
29:04.4
Question their literacy
29:05.3
Etc
29:05.7
You have to understand
29:06.6
What made them
29:07.8
So frustrated
29:08.6
Right
29:09.7
That they're open
29:10.7
To these kinds of leaders
29:12.2
Right
29:12.7
And what are
29:13.6
What are the things
29:14.4
That these leaders
29:14.9
Are providing
29:15.5
That makes
29:16.3
Them amenable
29:17.5
To people
29:18.5
Kaya nga may term na
29:19.8
Populist voters
29:21.1
Yung mga
29:21.7
Voters mismo
29:22.3
Naghanap ng
29:23.1
Populist figures
29:24.9
To solve problems
29:25.8
That they felt
29:26.4
Weak institutions
29:27.4
Weak democratic institutions
29:28.5
Have not been able
29:29.4
To solve
29:29.9
Right
29:30.4
So again
29:31.8
This is a call
29:32.6
For reflections
29:33.6
And proper understanding
29:34.9
Before we jump
29:36.0
Into judgments
29:36.8
Right
29:37.4
So I think this is
29:38.5
What's important
29:39.3
To keep in mind
29:39.9
On that note
29:40.3
Thank you very much
29:41.1
Mga kameta
29:41.6
I'll try to get back
29:42.9
To you once we have
29:43.6
Clear image
29:44.9
Of the data
29:45.6
And numbers
29:46.1
That we have
29:46.6
Based on the reports
29:47.4
We're seeing
29:47.9
And then hopefully
29:49.6
We can also have
29:50.4
Folks from Paul's
29:51.5
Asia
29:51.9
Okta
29:53.0
And other
29:53.5
Survey agencies
29:54.3
Who know a thing or two
29:55.3
About these things
29:56.0
To also join us
29:57.0
And have discussions
29:57.7
About these latest surveys
29:58.9
On that note
29:59.4
Thank you very much
30:00.2
God bless
30:00.7
And talk to you soon
30:01.9
Maraming salamat
30:02.8
Salamat po