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DUTERTE, CHINA & WEST PHILIPPINE SEA: JUSTICE CARPIO INTERVIEW
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00:00.7
All right. Good morning, everyone. Good evening, everyone. Thanks for joining us, Justice Carpio, again. Very, very interesting times.
00:08.9
Thank you, Richard. And good morning to our viewers.
00:13.6
Justice, of course, before talking about the big picture, something that we did in a separate show of mine that will hopefully come in the coming weeks.
00:21.8
First, let's talk about the Gentleman's Agreement that Harry Roque said.
00:51.8
Publicly announced is just binding between the two so-called gentlemen.
00:58.9
And it will not bind the successor or the public because the public and the successor didn't know about it.
01:08.5
It's unlike a unilateral declaration where the president, if he declares unilaterally that he's giving up the West Philippine Sea,
01:21.8
to China, that's binding on the state because that's considered a unilateral declaration that's announced publicly.
01:29.6
But in this case, nobody knew about it. And so they could not react. Nobody could do anything about it.
01:38.5
So it's only binding between the two of them.
01:43.1
Justice, do we have like a precedence for that in the case of the Philippines or something relevant to the territorial disputes?
01:51.8
The kind of a gentleman's agreement? I mean, like Malaysia, I don't know, Malaysia, China or that Gulf of Tonkin agreement between Vietnam and China.
02:00.0
That's that's more than a gentleman's agreement, right?
02:03.2
Yeah, well, I can't think of a similar case at the moment.
02:08.1
We have to remember that Duterte denied his spokes spokesman, Attorney Salvador Panelo, denied that there was such an agreement.
02:20.5
And Harry Roque.
02:21.8
Harry Roque seemed to have a back down from his claim.
02:26.2
And he was saying that, yes, I agree to the statement of Panelo.
02:33.9
So it looks like it's being denied by the Duterte camp and even the person who first brought it up as a back down on his claim.
02:45.1
And Panelo said Harry Roque was lying and was just looking for publicity.
02:51.8
When he said that.
02:53.8
So the the spokesperson who replaced Panelo was, of course, Harry Roque.
03:01.4
And Panelo said that Harry Roque was just a publicity seeker and was lying.
03:06.7
So we have to look at that entire entire the context of how this happened.
03:15.5
And well, first of all, legally, it's not binding on the Philippines.
03:19.1
It's not binding on the successor.
03:20.6
And third, it's.
03:21.8
Even being denied now, if you recall, it came out in the Manila Times, Manila Times newspaper that an unnamed embassy official of China told the reporter of Manila Times that there was a gentleman's agreement.
03:42.4
And that's how Roque reacted.
03:45.0
He confirmed that there was a gentleman's agreement.
03:48.0
But Panelo, he said he checked with President Duterte.
03:51.3
And the president.
03:51.8
Duterte said, no, there is no gentleman's agreement.
03:54.8
So that's where we are now.
03:58.1
Well, I mean, I mean, just to be clear, this is not the first time we see Duterte officials completely contradicting each other.
04:05.9
And in this sense, I won't rule out the possibility of some rivalry going on between the spokesman, not to mention colleagues.
04:13.4
I think both of them are SMNI, ang media ng mga bayani kay Harry Roque.
04:19.4
But setting aside.
04:21.8
The dynamic of the, let's say, interesting siblings rivalry going on within the DDS camp.
04:28.3
What would you, I mean, hypothetically, what would have been the circumstances for a potential gentleman's agreement?
04:36.3
Because, I mean, I don't want to, I don't want to be facetious about it, but there are times you'd rather trust China over these people.
04:42.5
I mean, considering the credibility of these people, probably they gave something to China.
04:48.5
Galit na galit ang China.
04:50.6
Yeah.
04:51.8
Well, legally, it will not bind the successor because it was a secret agreement and not disclosed.
05:00.6
Nobody could react to it.
05:03.4
And it was binding as far as both of them would agree to follow it during their term.
05:10.2
But Duterte now is out of office.
05:12.5
And of course, Roque himself was saying that it was only binding between the two, between President Xi and Duterte.
05:21.3
Probably.
05:21.8
Because Duterte said, I love President Xi.
05:24.0
That's why he made that promise.
05:27.5
So that's the situation now.
05:31.3
And the Chinese embassy cannot produce any document because there is no document.
05:38.7
They said it was his verbal.
05:41.2
If you recall, President Duterte also said that he has allowed China to fish, the Chinese fishermen to fish in the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines in the West Philippine Sea.
05:51.8
That clearly violated the Constitution, which says the marine wealth in the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines is reserved for exclusively for Filipinos.
06:02.9
So he violated it.
06:06.0
And I was waiting for Senate to investigate it because, you know, any executive agreement, if you call it, or any treaty must be taken up by the Senate.
06:21.8
At least they must discuss it if it constitutes a treaty.
06:25.6
It constitutes a derogation of our sovereign rights.
06:28.6
But nobody wanted to discuss it.
06:30.4
They were all afraid of Duterte.
06:32.5
And that's already the Senate.
06:34.8
How much more for the House?
06:36.6
So it was a very strange situation where Duterte kept on violating the Constitution when he said the Navy will patrol only the territorial sea.
06:47.2
The Constitution says the state shall protect its marine wealth in its exclusive economic zone.
06:51.9
So, you know, we were the only ones who were calling Duterte to task.
06:57.6
We were calling him out of bounds.
07:00.3
But the rest of the Congress, they just refused to tackle it.
07:04.7
And I don't know why.
07:06.7
And this is the result.
07:08.2
Duterte kept on making those statements.
07:13.1
And I think we should be very strict when it comes to the Constitution.
07:16.7
We should hold every public official accountable if they violate the Constitution.
07:21.9
Openly.
07:22.7
It was an open violation.
07:26.2
Justice, of course, just to be clear, I mean, biglang maraming matapang ngayon sa ating Congreso and Senado.
07:31.6
Now everyone is fighting for the West Philippine Sea.
07:34.1
Yung iba nga, nagtit-T-shirt pa ng West Philippine Sea.
07:36.7
May designer T-shirt, pumupunta sa gilas Pilipinas.
07:40.3
Of course, we all very much remember how these people were reacting back in the day, including against us, right?
07:46.6
When we were calling out the words of the President.
07:49.0
But, I mean, putting aside them,
07:51.2
the antics and the clown show and everything during the era of Duterte,
07:56.6
and even after, as we can see right now, sila-sila na lang, nag-aaway-aaway na sila.
08:01.5
I mean, I think Senator Riza Antiveras, some of the few independent-minded people out there in the government,
08:08.4
she said that, aren't we talking about the potentially treasonous situation here?
08:12.4
I mean, shouldn't we have a thorough, comprehensive investigation?
08:17.0
Which organs of the state should be involved aside from the Senate?
08:19.8
Should the executive branch?
08:21.1
Should the executive branch also launch a serious investigation into this?
08:23.3
Because, I mean, we can laugh about this, but if this is potentially a treasonous situation,
08:27.4
then something more serious should be.
08:29.3
The reason I'm talking about this is because the DFA's statement in early March
08:33.8
more or less implied that there was such a proposal,
08:37.4
and it was contrary to our national interest, as they put it explicitly.
08:41.8
So, DFA is washing off its hands.
08:43.7
So, it looks like no official organ was involved,
08:47.9
but some people may have been involved, regardless of what Salvador,
08:51.1
or some extremely credible people are saying out there.
08:55.3
Yeah, you're right.
08:56.9
The DFA disclosed that there were proposals by China,
09:01.9
but the DFA rejected it because it would violate the Constitution.
09:06.2
It would be against the arbitral award.
09:10.1
But maybe what Senator Riza Antiveras is doing is the right thing,
09:14.3
because under existing law, treason can be committed only during wartime.
09:19.1
Right.
09:21.1
And this is really, if Duterte did it during wartime, this is treason.
09:27.2
He can be executed for treason if we have a penalty for execution for treason.
09:34.8
But I think what Riza should do is to conduct the investigation in aid of legislation
09:46.2
so that we will have legislation in place during peacetime.
09:51.1
Because during wartime, if a person commits a treasonous act,
09:55.9
that's governed by the revised penal code.
09:57.9
But there is no equivalent law during peacetime.
10:02.6
The nearest law is when you are disloyal to the republic.
10:06.9
That's considered a violation of the code of conduct of government officials.
10:14.5
But the penalty there is dismissal from office.
10:18.5
So, it's not the...
10:20.1
I think the...
10:21.1
The penalty is to light.
10:26.4
And, of course, if you are in office, you can be impeached
10:31.2
if it's a culpable violation of the Constitution and you are an impeachable officer.
10:35.7
But the president controls Congress,
10:38.4
so nobody would file exactly what happened during time of Duterte.
10:41.4
So, we should have a law saying that if you commit a treasonous act,
10:47.3
the same treasonous act during peacetime,
10:50.0
then...
10:51.1
Then, you will be subject to a penalty also,
10:54.8
which will be probably lighter during peacetime if it is committed in wartime.
11:00.6
But I think there is a gap in the law because if it is a crime during wartime,
11:07.9
it should also be a crime during peacetime because it injures the national interest.
11:14.1
So, that should be the direction of the inquiry that's in aid of legislation
11:20.3
because...
11:21.1
You are thinking of a new legislation that will apply during peacetime
11:25.1
because there's a gap, a hiatus in the law.
11:29.0
Yeah.
11:29.9
Thank you, Justice, for pointing that out.
11:32.7
I mean, why do you think we have such a gap?
11:35.8
I mean, isn't it like commonsensical that, you know,
11:39.4
treasonous acts could happen in a non-war situation,
11:42.5
but in still very, very fragile situations that could, you know, lead to war?
11:46.7
I mean, the United States had all sorts of different legislations during the Cold War period,
11:51.1
whereby you're not talking about direct war with the Soviet Union,
11:54.8
but, you know, potentially disastrous, you know, actions by American officials
11:59.5
that could completely undermine their national security.
12:03.2
I mean, obviously, if you watch the movie Oppenheimer,
12:05.4
you would have criticism because it was used to, you know, to red-tag essentially.
12:12.0
But nevertheless, in democracies today, in mature democracies today,
12:18.0
do we have any kind of a legal blueprint that we can draw on?
12:21.1
Yes, the U.S., U.K., and other democracies in the EU,
12:29.1
they all have laws, even during peacetime,
12:32.1
because they had this, during the Cold War,
12:35.8
a lot of their government officials and citizens were recruited by the KGB.
12:43.5
And so they developed that.
12:45.3
They had to promulgate laws to counter the,
12:51.1
the communist recruitment, the KGB recruitment.
12:54.2
But we did not have that kind of experience.
12:58.6
We just copied the, our present revised penal code is copied,
13:03.8
almost verbatim from the revised penal code of Spain.
13:08.2
And it's very old law.
13:10.2
And that's it.
13:15.3
In the case of treason,
13:21.2
it applied only during wartime.
13:23.0
So we have to update.
13:24.4
That's why I'm hoping that this legislative inquiry of Santa Rosa
13:31.6
will move in that direction,
13:33.8
that there is really a gap.
13:35.4
There's a black hole in our legal system.
13:38.9
And we should, because it's not only Duterte.
13:41.8
You have a lot of Filipinos now who are mouthing Chinese propaganda
13:46.5
because they're paid by China.
13:50.1
The,
13:51.1
we have a law already.
13:52.3
We copied it.
13:53.1
It was enacted during the time of Marcos during martial law.
14:00.4
It's like all,
14:01.6
all those who are lobbyists for a foreign country,
14:06.6
paid lobbyists must register,
14:08.4
but that's only for purposes of registration.
14:11.9
So you will disclose your,
14:13.5
yeah,
14:14.3
transparency.
14:15.2
But we really need something because we may have some military officers who
14:19.3
will be recruited by,
14:21.1
by China during peace time.
14:23.6
That's the problem.
14:25.2
Or civilian.
14:26.5
If you are a military officer,
14:28.4
you would be governed by the military rules.
14:31.8
You can be subjected to court martial,
14:34.2
but for civilians,
14:36.4
there is that very weak provision in the code of conduct for government
14:40.3
employees.
14:40.7
Yes,
14:41.9
it's a violation,
14:43.1
but this penalty is just dismissal from,
14:46.4
from government office.
14:49.1
Justice.
14:49.8
I mean,
14:50.0
doesn't that,
14:50.6
uh,
14:50.9
kind of reflect some fundamental weaknesses and sense of complacency sa
14:56.3
Pilipinas.
14:56.8
I mean,
14:57.0
in,
14:57.2
in different episodes with you and,
14:58.8
and other people are,
14:60.0
uh,
15:00.6
in the know,
15:01.2
pagdating sa West Philippine Sea,
15:02.3
we discuss a lot about national defense,
15:04.4
AFP,
15:05.2
external security,
15:06.7
but I'm,
15:07.1
I'm,
15:07.3
but I find it's quite surprising that,
15:09.7
you know,
15:10.1
we also have all of these serious gaps domestically also in terms of our
15:13.8
legislation.
15:14.5
I mean,
15:15.0
medyo masipag naman ng mga abugado natin.
15:17.6
It's not like we were a country shy of making legislation,
15:20.9
I don't want to be too speculative,
15:23.3
but I'm half shocked at the fact that all of these decades,
15:26.7
no,
15:27.0
we did not try to take care of some of these basic things.
15:31.2
Is it because we were too reliant on the United States throughout the Cold War
15:35.1
period and,
15:36.2
and we are still trying to find our own footing?
15:38.5
I mean,
15:38.7
what's going on there?
15:40.9
Well,
15:41.2
uh,
15:42.0
yes,
15:42.5
uh,
15:43.0
w I think we,
15:44.9
we have that gap in the law,
15:46.6
uh,
15:47.6
and,
15:47.9
uh,
15:48.4
we have been very cavalier.
15:49.9
In fact,
15:50.4
uh,
15:50.8
you remember President Duterte,
15:52.6
he allowed,
15:53.8
uh,
15:54.7
uh,
15:55.4
DITO,
15:56.3
which is practically financed by Chinatel,
15:59.8
a Chinese,
16:00.6
Chinese state-owned company,
16:02.6
to install their towers in all our military camps.
16:06.7
Can you just imagine that?
16:08.1
Uh,
16:08.9
uh,
16:09.3
Chinese,
16:10.1
uh,
16:11.0
uh,
16:11.6
receivers,
16:12.3
transceivers will be installed in our military camps,
16:14.9
so they will all collect all the communications of our military.
16:19.9
And,
16:20.1
uh,
16:20.3
you know,
16:21.1
to the credit of our military,
16:23.1
they,
16:23.5
they refuse to implement it.
16:24.9
They could not,
16:25.8
of course,
16:26.4
uh,
16:27.0
say no directly to the commander in chief,
16:29.8
President Duterte,
16:31.1
but they just delayed and now they're not implementing it,
16:35.1
but because they know,
16:36.6
but of course,
16:37.6
uh,
16:38.0
I was,
16:38.5
uh,
16:38.8
I wrote about it and,
16:39.9
uh,
16:40.8
the,
16:41.4
the,
16:41.7
of course,
16:42.1
uh,
16:42.3
the like General Esperon,
16:44.3
who was head of the NSA at the time,
16:46.3
they all defended Duterte,
16:47.9
but the people on the ground,
16:49.6
uh,
16:50.8
knew that,
16:51.7
that the,
16:52.4
the injury that could be caused.
16:54.6
So they just refused to implement it while the,
16:58.3
uh,
16:59.3
their superiors,
17:00.3
uh,
17:01.4
paid lip service to it.
17:03.9
But they did not,
17:04.9
they,
17:05.3
all of them really didn't want to implement it.
17:07.3
And,
17:07.6
uh,
17:08.4
luckily,
17:09.0
uh,
17:09.4
not,
17:10.0
they did not a single tower was installed.
17:12.9
Uh,
17:13.6
but that's the,
17:15.1
we,
17:15.4
I think we need really a whole of nation approach on national,
17:19.6
uh,
17:20.1
security.
17:20.9
Uh,
17:21.6
that,
17:21.9
uh,
17:22.4
we should be conscious right now.
17:24.6
Uh,
17:25.6
uh,
17:26.7
we,
17:27.1
we,
17:27.4
we allowed,
17:29.0
uh,
17:29.8
in the draft of the amended public service act that the 30 proposed to Congress.
17:36.0
He wanted,
17:36.6
uh,
17:37.5
our talent,
17:39.4
telecom company can be 100% owned by China by,
17:43.2
by foreigners.
17:44.2
And he said,
17:44.8
I will give the third telco to China,
17:47.3
China.
17:47.6
Tell,
17:48.4
can you just imagine that?
17:50.1
And,
17:51.2
uh,
17:52.1
so what happened here was,
17:53.4
uh,
17:55.0
we all work to stop it to,
17:57.1
or to,
17:58.2
to create poison pills.
18:00.5
The,
18:01.6
what happened was the,
18:03.0
uh,
18:03.4
intelligence,
18:04.4
uh,
18:04.6
service of the,
18:06.5
uh,
18:06.6
armed forces proposed to Congress to put their subject to national security.
18:11.6
Uh,
18:11.9
the president can decide,
18:13.5
uh,
18:13.7
not to implement this law,
18:15.8
allowing foreigners to own a hundred percent of our telecom.
18:18.5
If,
18:18.8
if it infringes our national security.
18:21.3
So that's one layer and the,
18:23.8
the other,
18:25.6
the other,
18:27.1
uh,
18:27.9
the telcos,
18:28.8
uh,
18:29.2
globe and,
18:30.2
uh,
18:30.5
PLDT suggested to Congress that yes,
18:34.7
uh,
18:34.9
foreigners can 100%,
18:36.2
but not state owned enterprises because the Chinese,
18:41.4
uh,
18:41.8
telecom companies are state owned.
18:43.6
So they were able to insert that.
18:45.2
And I myself,
18:46.4
because I was swatted,
18:47.6
I worked that I,
18:48.9
I suggested to some congressman that to put their subject to reciprocity,
18:53.9
because if we allow China to own a hundred percent of our telecom company,
19:00.2
Chinese should also allow us.
19:01.5
But in China,
19:02.6
foreigners cannot own a majority of our telecom company because they know telecom company is essential to national security.
19:10.1
You cannot allow foreigners to own your telecom company,
19:13.9
especially under Chinese law,
19:17.4
all Chinese citizens,
19:18.8
and companies wherever they are in the world are obliged to turn over to China to the Chinese security agencies any data that they that is in their possession.
19:32.6
So if they establish a telecom tower in a in Camp Aguinaldo and they get all those communications of our general headquarters,
19:46.4
uh,
19:47.0
the Chinese who operate the,
19:48.8
uh,
19:49.3
dito will,
19:50.5
uh,
19:50.8
will be forced to turn over the,
19:53.3
uh,
19:54.3
the data to Chinese security agencies.
19:57.3
So there are three layers now that prevent the China tell from gaining majority control of dito because first if you're a state owned company,
20:12.6
you cannot own majority of Philippine telecom companies.
20:16.6
So if you're a state owned company,
20:18.2
you cannot own majority of Philippine telecom companies.
20:18.7
So if you're a state owned company,
20:18.7
you cannot own majority of Philippine telecom companies.
20:19.2
Second,
20:19.7
uh,
20:20.7
the president,
20:21.7
uh,
20:22.7
reasons of national security can prohibit and third,
20:26.2
it must be subject to reciprocity and China will never open up their telecom industry to foreign ownership,
20:33.2
foreign control because for them,
20:35.2
uh,
20:36.2
they cannot.
20:37.2
The essence of the Communist Party,
20:39.2
their total control is control of communications.
20:44.7
They cannot allow people to talk freely.
20:48.2
That's why they even have a firewall for the Internet.
20:52.2
They have complete surveillance and they intrude into your privacy.
20:59.2
That's the way to control society.
21:00.7
And there are communist regime.
21:02.2
So for them,
21:04.0
the telecom in telecom companies are very important,
21:07.8
critical for control for controlling society,
21:10.6
and they will never allow,
21:12.1
uh,
21:13.2
foreigners to to control or manage their telecom industries.
21:18.2
So they will that they cannot comply with that condition subject to reciprocity.
21:24.2
I mean,
21:25.2
I would say justice that even some of their supposed private companies,
21:30.2
they're being private is questionable,
21:32.2
right?
21:32.7
I mean,
21:33.2
considering how in China,
21:34.2
the government just can come in and take over the company or has essentially,
21:38.2
you know,
21:38.7
versions of commissars in the Board of Governors.
21:42.7
I mean,
21:43.2
there's so many levers that the Chinese government uses and can use to essentially,
21:48.2
force Chinese companies,
21:49.7
even privately owned companies to toe the line,
21:52.5
right?
21:52.7
I mean,
21:53.2
I think Huawei last time we check is a private company,
21:55.7
but I think no one in any mature democracy would assume that Huawei is not being influenced by the Chinese government one way or another,
22:02.5
considering how much subsidies and how much direct legal and political control the Chinese Communist Party has over practically everything in China,
22:11.1
right?
22:11.4
I mean,
22:12.2
so in that case,
22:14.4
doesn't this mean that we have to be careful with any kind of deal?
22:18.2
With any major Chinese company as far as our critical infrastructure is concerned,
22:22.5
which also raises the issue of national greed,
22:24.5
right?
22:24.8
Because yes,
22:25.9
it's not only the ownership,
22:27.2
right?
22:27.5
It's also the maintenance,
22:28.8
the engineering.
22:29.7
I mean,
22:30.0
I think again,
22:31.3
a number of senators,
22:32.2
including Senator Ontiveros back in the day,
22:35.2
Miriam Defensor,
22:36.2
and more recently also Rafi Tulfo have raised issues about,
22:39.3
you know,
22:39.5
essentially Chinese engineers running the show in some of this company.
22:43.0
I mean,
22:43.4
in the in the in the grid sector for instance,
22:46.9
I mean,
22:47.4
so,
22:47.9
should we do something more drastic here,
22:50.5
essentially renationalize some of the sectors or come up with very explicit national security papers with respect to China?
22:59.7
Well,
23:00.1
on the national grid,
23:01.0
I think we have to renationalize it.
23:02.9
We cannot,
23:04.0
you know,
23:04.3
the the Chinese are the one running the grid.
23:07.0
They're technicians.
23:08.6
There was a time when they remove all the Filipino technicians and the ESAP complained,
23:14.6
the intelligence service of the Armed Forces of the Philippines complained.
23:17.1
So I don't know if they were brought back,
23:20.9
but control over that over the technical matters under the national grid is in the hands of the Chinese and and they deny that it can be shut down from China.
23:32.8
And I but I believe they can be shut down by China because these are all done electronically and through the internet.
23:41.4
We can we can open our if you have a house abroad,
23:46.7
you can open it from here through the internet.
23:49.4
You can start your car in New York from here through the internet.
23:53.9
So you can shut down the grid from from Beijing.
23:58.8
It's as simple as that now.
24:01.2
So we have to be very careful about this because China wants to grab our maritime zones and island territories in the West Philippine Sea.
24:11.3
And and we have to be conscious of that that,
24:15.9
uh,
24:17.4
how can we fight China if they can shut down our national grid?
24:22.5
This way,
24:22.8
the Americans in their ad sites,
24:25.4
they put up their own generator.
24:26.9
They do.
24:27.4
They will not rely on the national grid.
24:30.7
That's how critical it is.
24:33.2
Even our all our camps should have their own generator because in case of a conflict in the West Philippine Sea,
24:40.5
China will just switch switch off the national grid and all our camps will go dark.
24:45.9
So again,
24:49.1
the last time we check,
24:50.7
this is from the Arroyo to Aquino era,
24:53.3
right?
24:53.7
This,
24:54.1
uh,
24:54.5
the Chinese involved in the privatization happened during the Arroyo administration.
25:02.0
But,
25:02.3
you know,
25:02.5
national grid is like printing money because the the the the everybody has to pass through the national grid,
25:13.2
all the power.
25:14.0
If you put up a plant in Quezon,
25:15.8
Pabilaw,
25:17.2
it has to pass through the national grid because the power is delivered in Metro Manila.
25:21.4
So it's like a tollway.
25:23.7
The transport will not move unless you pass through the tollway and there will be no electricity in Manila without that national grid.
25:33.8
So it's really and and it will always be profitable.
25:38.3
Then there is no way a national grid can lose money because you just add on to the just charge.
25:45.8
And everybody needs it,
25:47.6
right?
25:47.9
I don't know why it was privatized when it's so critical for national security and there's no way it was not losing money.
25:58.2
It should not lose money by definition.
26:00.7
If it doesn't losing money,
26:01.7
then there's a lot of corruption there.
26:05.0
I mean,
26:06.0
just as I don't want to be self deprecating too much,
26:08.3
but but on the things it is,
26:10.0
but I'm a Joe Banana Republic.
26:12.0
Hi.
26:12.2
I mean,
26:12.5
there's so many safeguards basic safeguards.
26:15.3
You would,
26:15.6
you would assume in any serious democracy or nation states that it looks like they're really missing in the case of the Philippines.
26:21.8
And honestly,
26:22.8
I mean,
26:23.2
Duterte being a lawyer himself,
26:24.8
I'm not necessarily the best lawyer,
26:26.3
but being the lawyer himself,
26:27.3
perhaps was aware of a lot of these gaps in the system that he exploited on many fronts,
26:33.5
particularly also due to the West Philippine Sea issue.
26:35.4
Is that also your understanding?
26:37.4
Yes, he knew what he was doing,
26:39.3
but he did it.
26:40.2
That means it was intentional when he said do not patrol the EEZ.
26:45.1
Just patrol up to our territorial sea.
26:48.2
He knew the consequences.
26:49.4
That means China will grab our EEZ.
26:52.0
Nobody will oppose China,
26:53.5
but he did it willingly because he wanted to do it as a favor for China.
26:58.8
It was against their national interest.
27:00.7
That's you know,
27:01.8
that's why I said in wartime that will be treason.
27:04.7
But in peacetime,
27:07.5
that's a culpable violation of the Constitution.
27:09.9
He's an impeachment officer,
27:11.8
but you need Congress to impeach him and everyone in Congress.
27:14.6
So we'll not do it.
27:16.0
Why because you know,
27:19.2
you know why all the congressmen are under the thumb of the president because of the pork barrel.
27:25.2
The Supreme Court before Congress had the when they pass the general appropriations up,
27:32.5
there would be a line there that the congressman can recommend where the public works will be placed in their district.
27:41.9
But the Supreme Court ruled that is unconstitutional.
27:44.6
Because Congress can only legislate it cannot implement that is an executive function.
27:53.3
So now but Congress the congressman still want their pork barrel.
27:58.7
So they put the entire amount of the pork barrel in the Department of Public Works
28:04.2
and it's given entirely up to the president to distribute it.
28:09.3
So you have to knock out out to the president to get your your.
28:14.6
Your pork barrel because you cannot recommend anymore.
28:21.0
And so the president said,
28:23.0
okay, I will give you your pork barrel,
28:24.9
but I'll put here for later release.
28:27.3
Remember that for later release,
28:28.9
when will it be released after you have passed the bill allowing foreigners to own telco because I want the China tell to be the third telco.
28:39.8
I will also release it if you cancel the ABS-CBN franchise.
28:44.6
So it was used in the hands of a president with that mentality.
28:49.3
You can you can see what what will happen.
28:52.8
But not in the hands of a president that narco politician list,
28:56.8
you know, I mean he could also put you on the list of narco politicians,
28:59.9
which is even worse, right?
29:02.2
So in there,
29:04.3
the you know, the presidency is something that's really you just have to put a decent man there.
29:10.2
Somebody who's after the national interest in the hands of a president.
29:14.6
Like Mark,
29:17.2
Fidel Ramos or Ninoy Pinoy Aquino,
29:21.4
then you can you know,
29:22.5
these are decent people.
29:23.5
They will not do something like that.
29:25.5
But the ends well in the ends of a Marcos senior or in the hands of a Duterte,
29:30.3
it's terrible because they don't care.
29:32.5
They will just if they want to to to give up our or they want to China to come in and control our telecom,
29:42.8
they will do it through.
29:44.4
This pork barrel because they control Congress to the pork barrel.
29:49.9
And if they want to punish ABS-CBN or any other broadcast company,
29:56.9
they can do it.
29:58.1
They will tell the congressman do not renew the franchise.
30:02.4
Otherwise you will not get your budget.
30:04.7
So everybody lined up to vote against the renewal of the franchise of ABS-CBN.
30:09.9
That was the tool that was used.
30:13.3
Yeah, so that's where we see.
30:14.3
Ito yung presidential bandwagon system na sinasabi no,
30:17.9
and it's so easy to bandwagon around the president or the president has many whips,
30:22.5
right to leverage in order to essentially neutralize checks and balance.
30:28.3
I mean, obviously we saw that also most dramatically dun sa issue ng EJK at saka drug warning digong.
30:33.9
So unfortunately nagsabay-sabay lahat ng mga buso na yan.
30:37.6
But Justice before going back again to this issue ng Ayung and Sol and the implications of the so-called gentleman's agreement.
30:43.6
I,
30:44.1
I want to also ask aren't we concerned that if ever we pass laws on treason or we update our existing legal frameworks,
30:53.7
that will also opening up to serious politicization,
30:56.9
right that every administration will come in and open up treason cases against the previous one.
31:01.8
I mean you can I mean you can imagine that would have been the case against I don't know,
31:05.5
Aquino administration back in the day or you know,
31:07.6
or intervention by Senator Trillanes on the Scarborough issue among others.
31:11.2
I see already in common sections.
31:12.7
Some of the pro-duterte,
31:13.9
the people here saying,
31:15.1
Oh,
31:15.3
what about this?
31:16.0
What about that?
31:17.0
I mean,
31:17.7
how do we also safeguard against that possibility of very immature politicians weaponizing this?
31:23.6
It will be subject to abuse by a president like Duterte,
31:27.1
like Duterte,
31:27.9
but he did but he cancelled the amnesty of Trillanes.
31:31.5
And today the there's an announcement in the newspaper that the Supreme Court voided declared it unconstitutional.
31:38.7
So there is,
31:39.9
you know,
31:40.5
it's very important that we elect a decent president.
31:43.9
Because we have given so much power to the office of the president because those powers are needed.
31:53.4
But in the hands of a president who has no morals,
31:58.9
who doesn't have the interest of the nation in his heart,
32:04.7
then we will see these things happen.
32:08.5
Giving away our exclusive economic zone.
32:11.5
For me,
32:11.8
that's really,
32:13.7
that's the height of disregard for the national interest.
32:20.5
I mean,
32:21.5
I would say treason.
32:23.3
But then again,
32:23.9
we don't even have a serious law.
32:27.1
It's really a culpable violation of the Constitution.
32:30.3
And Congress is supposed to check that.
32:34.0
But since they are under the thumb,
32:36.0
because of the four later release funds,
32:38.0
they cannot do it.
32:39.5
Yeah.
32:40.3
Yeah.
32:41.6
That's the dynamics there.
32:43.7
And that's why I think we have to do something about it because this will really be a big problem for us.
32:53.5
This will magnify later on into other problems unless we put a check on this.
33:03.5
Yeah.
33:03.7
And so it's therefore talaga importante for Sen.
33:07.5
Rizon Tavares and others to really in aid of legislation,
33:10.9
not just for political investigation or anything like that,
33:13.5
to do something about it so that we can move forward.
33:16.9
The problem though is hindi ba dapat komiti ng National Defense or Foreign Affairs?
33:21.8
I mean,
33:22.0
Foreign Affairs is under IMEI,
33:23.3
National Defense is under Jinggoy.
33:26.1
What about,
33:26.9
I mean,
33:27.1
we also have that dynamic in the Senate,
33:28.9
right?
33:30.9
Yeah.
33:31.3
Well,
33:31.6
I don't know in what committee it will be sent,
33:36.5
no?
33:38.2
I think that's the call of the Senate President,
33:43.1
the majority.
33:45.1
They want to give it to another committee.
33:49.0
But I suppose it will go to the National Defense probably.
33:54.6
Yeah,
33:54.9
which is I think Jinggoy.
33:56.3
Or it could go to the committee of Senator Padilla,
34:02.3
who chairs the Committee on Revision of Laws.
34:07.5
Ayan.
34:07.9
Okay.
34:08.2
Of course,
34:08.7
our resident constitutional expert,
34:11.2
right?
34:11.9
Yes.
34:12.4
It can go to that.
34:15.3
Well,
34:17.3
it should go properly to the Committee on the Revision of Laws,
34:21.2
Committee on the Revision of Laws,
34:23.4
and that will be under...
34:24.6
Constitutional amendments.
34:25.7
Robin Padilla.
34:28.4
Yeah,
34:28.7
Robin Hood Padilla,
34:29.7
apparently.
34:30.6
Robin Hood,
34:31.1
that's the correct,
34:33.1
that's the real name.
34:36.6
I mean,
34:36.9
otherwise,
34:37.5
you still have the options of,
34:38.7
I don't know,
34:39.0
Committee ni Bato or si Cayetano,
34:41.7
di ba?
34:42.0
I think Cayetano also chairs the Committee.
34:44.2
I mean,
34:45.1
wouldn't we expect Senator Cayetano to be a little bit more vocal about this issue,
34:49.4
considering he was the Foreign Affairs Secretary during whose time,
34:53.2
allegedly,
34:53.8
this kind of gentleman's agreement at least came up,
34:55.9
if not agreed upon,
34:58.2
per hierarchy.
35:00.0
I mean,
35:00.2
why would even a hierarchy make up stuff like that?
35:02.5
I mean,
35:02.7
I don't think it serves his interest unless this is about,
35:07.2
you know,
35:07.5
pleasing some people on the other side.
35:10.0
What's going on here?
35:10.9
I mean,
35:11.1
I don't know what...
35:11.8
what Committee chairs,
35:13.5
but in the case of the Charter change,
35:19.0
you know,
35:19.3
Charter change would fall under the Committee of Senator Robin Hood Padilla,
35:23.2
because it's a revision of the Committee on Constitutional Law and Revision of Laws.
35:28.8
But they made,
35:29.6
they created the Senate,
35:31.3
the Senate of the President,
35:33.1
the Senate President created a subcommittee that it will be handled by Senator Angara,
35:38.8
Sonny Angara.
35:39.8
And that's what happened.
35:40.6
Maybe they can create a subcommittee.
35:41.6
It will be handled by maybe Senator Sonny Angara or somebody else.
35:47.2
Yeah,
35:47.4
maybe I'll tag Senator Sonny because my worry was like,
35:51.4
who are we going to tag here?
35:53.0
I mean,
35:54.4
well,
35:54.6
JVRC could be one interesting partner for this.
35:58.6
I mean,
35:58.8
considering he has been quite vocal about Chinese,
36:02.6
pro-China fake news peddler in the Philippines and disinformation campaign.
36:06.0
So,
36:06.6
so,
36:07.2
because,
36:07.4
you know,
36:07.6
we're just looking at the reality of what we have at hand.
36:10.3
Can we have,
36:11.1
because when it comes to the issue of kiboloy,
36:13.8
issue of women rights,
36:14.9
et cetera,
36:15.7
okay na si Riza Ondivera,
36:17.3
she has been doing her job.
36:18.3
But my,
36:18.7
you know,
36:18.9
my question is,
36:19.5
what do we do on this very,
36:20.9
very sensitive issues?
36:22.8
But Justice,
36:24.7
balikan natin itong issue ng Ayung Insol because I wonder,
36:29.2
you know,
36:30.4
why would Harry Roque say something like the agreement was to stick to the status quo when everyone knows the status quo was going to be in favor of China?
36:39.1
Because BRP,
36:40.0
Sherry Madra,
36:40.6
I think,
36:40.9
no one has to be an engineering,
36:42.6
marine engineering genius to realize we began.
36:45.9
I mean,
36:46.4
we began the end.
36:47.2
I mean,
36:47.5
it was just a matter of time before this will give up to the elements given to the elements.
36:52.5
Um,
36:53.4
so status code would mean you're essentially paving the way for China to eventually occupy the area or at least us losing any lever of direct administrative control on Ayung Insol.
37:04.6
No,
37:05.9
you know Richard,
37:07.3
I was surprised when he said the purpose was to preserve the status quo.
37:10.9
What is the status quo?
37:12.2
The status quo is we are in control of of Ayung Insol.
37:17.9
So and then the status quo,
37:20.5
we kept on supplying our outpost there with food materials and water,
37:27.4
but they changed the status quo by saying you cannot bring in materials only food and water.
37:35.0
So that's not the status quo.
37:36.5
The status quo was before we were able to bring materials.
37:40.0
So,
37:40.9
it was really I called it lopsided in favor of China because everybody knows that if you don't try to fit,
37:51.3
if you don't repair Sierra Madre,
37:53.1
it will just collapse and that will end our presence.
37:56.6
So when the third day agreed that there will be no repairs,
38:01.1
he agreed that to end our presence there.
38:05.3
That's the meaning of that.
38:07.6
That's very clear because the,
38:10.2
you know,
38:11.3
there was a time Richard when there was really a need to repair Sierra Madre and you know,
38:20.1
we are a transparent government.
38:23.0
You have to propose an item in the GAA that certain amount must go to the repair of Sierra Madre
38:31.3
and they did that.
38:33.5
So there was a law passed the General Appropriations Act had an item repair of Sierra Madre certain amount.
38:40.2
And the Chinese Embassy had access of course,
38:42.7
and they saw it so they knew that we're going to repair Sierra Madre.
38:46.9
And so they they they encircled it with their with their maritime militia to prevent any any materials
38:55.3
from entering from going to the Sierra Madre.
38:58.5
So that started with that.
39:01.2
It was that was during that was about 10 years ago when that incident happened when the Chinese found out that we were now going to repair Sierra Madre.
39:09.3
We were now going to repair Sierra Madre.
39:12.4
And it is it was there in the in the budget.
39:16.1
So,
39:16.3
you know,
39:16.6
we did not even hide it.
39:18.7
It could have been hidden in let's say intelligence fund or something.
39:22.9
But I was actually wondering shouldn't that be where the intelligence fund comes in whereby you don't allow your your rivals or foreign powers,
39:31.6
you know exactly what we were so transparent that you know,
39:34.8
the purpose of this defense attache,
39:37.8
China's defense,
39:39.1
attache in in their Embassy in Manila and they they read all the all of this up the budget of the military is their number one.
39:47.1
I the number one document.
39:48.7
They they really go line by line and they saw there that there is an item to repair Sierra Madre.
39:56.3
That was that's how it happened.
39:59.1
We're so transparent.
40:02.8
Overly transparent.
40:04.0
I was saying that again.
40:06.6
I mean,
40:06.8
this is an interesting discussion justice,
40:09.0
because you know,
40:09.3
like,
40:09.5
you know,
40:09.9
what's in some of our earlier podcasts and discussions,
40:14.0
of course,
40:14.3
both of I mean,
40:16.0
you and I were always worried about weaponization of laws to clamp down on basic freedoms.
40:21.8
Both of you have been calling for transparency democracy,
40:25.1
but I think we also have to understand that freedoms are not free and there's a national security aspect and you have to balance the two.
40:31.8
So I'm very glad that we're having this discussion Justice Carpio because I think people are realizing that you know,
40:36.6
as much as we are for political freedom and all,
40:39.0
we need to balance that against some serious national security concentration.
40:42.6
We're having as far as China is concerned.
40:45.4
Now quickly,
40:47.1
Justice Carpio,
40:47.7
you mentioned,
40:48.9
you know,
40:49.2
responsible presidents like Ramos and Pinoy and not so responsible like senior and the gong.
40:55.3
So you can guess what's my question right now.
40:57.0
So where does the leave?
40:58.4
Where does that leave Junior in your estimation?
41:02.6
Well,
41:03.5
I've said this before that I'm pleasantly surprised that he has
41:09.0
turned around in the West Philippine Sea because before he was saying remember during the campaign.
41:14.7
He said even before the campaign,
41:17.8
he said that we are wasting our money.
41:19.8
We should not be buying warships and warplanes because
41:23.9
talo na tayo eh.
41:25.7
I mean,
41:26.0
he feels that mindset.
41:27.0
Very defeatist.
41:27.6
Yeah.
41:28.5
Yeah, very defeatist.
41:29.6
But now he has turned around and I'm supportive of that.
41:33.2
I'm very happy now that we have a president who's there to defend the West Philippine Sea
41:38.5
to assert the arbitral award and of course,
41:42.5
there are other issues.
41:44.1
But as far as the West Philippine Sea is concerned,
41:47.1
I'm happy with what's with our foreign policy right now.
41:51.2
And speaking of the direction of our foreign policy right now,
41:56.4
Justice,
41:57.3
don't you think there could be also a problem of overcompensation because obviously we're in a catch-up time,
42:03.5
right?
42:03.8
We're trying to catch up for lahat ng mga kakulangan ng panahon ni Digong catch up in terms of our
42:08.5
defense capability acquisitions.
42:10.6
So the counter argument right now would be maybe Marcos Junior is overly going into the American camp
42:17.1
and perhaps that could be also used by the Americans to push their own agenda in this part of the world.
42:22.3
I mean,
42:22.6
I know this sounds like,
42:23.6
you know,
42:23.9
the usual propaganda from the left or something like that.
42:26.5
But I mean,
42:27.3
this is the United States.
42:28.3
After all,
42:28.7
it has its own national interest,
42:30.3
right?
42:30.8
And I think as far as the US is concerned,
42:32.4
they want maximal access to Philippine bases,
42:34.9
whatever because they want to protect Taiwan.
42:37.0
They want to protect,
42:38.0
I don't know,
42:38.3
their own forward deployment capabilities in this part of the world.
42:41.3
How do we also balance against that potential of over swinging to the other side?
42:46.9
And what is your reading of how Marcos Junior has so far been,
42:50.4
you know,
42:51.8
you know,
42:52.1
conducting his foreign policy accordingly?
42:55.1
Well,
42:55.6
I think the real purpose,
42:58.6
the battle in the West Philippine Sea is whether we can get the gas.
43:03.7
At the end of the day,
43:05.2
the EEZ is about natural resources.
43:07.8
Can you exploit the natural resources in the EEZ that belongs to you?
43:12.6
So at the end of the day,
43:13.6
can we get the gas in Reed Bank?
43:16.1
So it's very easy for we can send the message to China that we don't,
43:25.5
if you don't want the this new EDCA basis,
43:29.1
additional EDCA basis to proceed,
43:32.1
just don't stop us from getting the gas in Reed Bank.
43:36.3
If you don't was don't want us to go close to get closer to the U.S.
43:41.5
Don't stop us from getting our what belongs to us.
43:45.1
I mean,
43:46.4
I think all that we're doing now is trying to to to increase our leverage.
43:52.6
To build up our leverage and tell China.
43:55.9
What you're doing is forcing us to go to to get closer to the Americans because we need desperately the gas.
44:03.5
It will be terrible for our economy.
44:05.8
If we have to import LNG,
44:07.7
we have a that's the malampay surprise 40% of the energy requirement of the zone.
44:13.7
And if we have to import that,
44:15.4
can you just imagine I'm told by by industry players that are our power rates would go up tremendously.
44:26.7
We will be it will be will all the foreign investors will leave the country because power is very large component of
44:35.8
operating costs,
44:37.6
especially if you're in manufacturing,
44:39.2
they will all leave.
44:41.1
And even our domestic players,
44:43.2
they can't compete.
44:45.8
If they have their power cost is so high.
44:48.6
So we have to send a message that we have to get that gas.
44:53.1
If you don't want the Americans to put up additional at the sites.
44:59.7
Yes,
45:00.1
we can stop that.
45:00.9
But you have to give us our gas.
45:04.2
Right?
45:04.6
We're just developing.
45:05.8
Leverage now.
45:07.0
And I think we still have to develop more leverage.
45:10.5
You need leverage in terms of,
45:11.8
you know,
45:12.5
telling the Chinese that,
45:13.5
you know,
45:14.6
we have our options also in terms of.
45:17.6
Yeah,
45:18.0
because that's what's in it,
45:19.1
et cetera.
45:19.5
Yeah,
45:19.9
these Edgar sites will will will will give us also a leverage with respect to the Americans.
45:28.2
We will tell the Americans you have to accompany us when we go to read bank to survey and drill just like what you did for
45:35.3
Malaysia and Indonesia.
45:38.1
So then it's a dual purpose.
45:41.5
We use this to tell China.
45:44.3
If you don't want this at the sites.
45:46.0
Okay,
45:46.7
but give us our gas.
45:47.8
Don't don't prevent us.
45:50.6
And for the Americans,
45:52.2
we're giving you this at the sites,
45:54.0
additional exercise,
45:54.9
but provide a joint patrol with us.
45:58.7
Do a joint patrol with us when we go to read bank because we are really late.
46:04.3
It takes about four years.
46:05.3
To develop read bank and and we don't have the gas.
46:09.6
We have three large gas fired plants in Luzon.
46:13.2
All of them are supplied by with gas from Malampaya.
46:16.9
But now only two can be supplied.
46:19.2
And at the end of this year,
46:20.3
only one can be supplied.
46:21.7
That means we will have to import LNG for this for for for this.
46:26.4
It's very expensive.
46:29.9
So it that's the that's the way I look at it.
46:33.8
We have to build up our leverage and it's a dual purpose.
46:40.9
And that's where your contention comes in.
46:43.0
Yung dahilan na si Marcos Junior ay nag-pivot dun sa issue or recalibration
46:48.3
in West Philippines is really because he realized China is not going to budge
46:52.0
on the read bank,
46:52.9
recto bank issue.
46:53.7
Yeah.
46:54.3
Can you just imagine if we do not get the gas in read bank,
46:58.3
we have to import LNG.
47:00.1
He will become very unpopular because inflation will go up.
47:04.5
People now are his law.
47:06.4
He has a two-digit drop in his ratings.
47:10.7
It's because of inflation prices of goods are so high.
47:15.1
And you can just imagine if we have to import all our we if we don't
47:20.6
get gas from Malampaya and import all our LNG inflation will go
47:25.0
through the roof.
47:25.8
He will become very unpopular.
47:27.8
So it's a matter of political survival for his family.
47:32.3
That we should get the gas in read.
47:33.8
Bank and the only country that can provide us with a military cover.
47:39.5
Naval cover is the US.
47:41.9
That's what happened in Malaysia.
47:43.7
Malaysia got the cover from both the Americans and the Australian
47:48.3
warships.
47:49.0
Indonesia got the cover from the US.
47:54.9
I think that's an important thing to mention as we go towards the you
47:57.9
know, the final part of our discussion.
48:00.5
Isang oras na ang bilisan naman as always and I don't want to keep you
48:03.5
too much justice.
48:06.4
So your contention is that the reason why Malaysia Indonesia and
48:12.1
there's any degree even Vietnam are not having as much problem is
48:15.7
because in their own time a lot of that during Duterte time, they
48:19.7
held their ground right?
48:20.6
Whether this is the West Capella Petronas unilateral drill by by
48:24.6
Malaysia from 2019 until 2020 2021, whether this is Indonesian President
48:29.5
Jokowi going to North Natuna Sea and drawing the line and saying there
48:32.3
will be no compromise.
48:33.5
Or Vietnam and their thousand years of struggle against China.
48:36.8
So so it looks like our reading here is that the reason why China is so
48:42.4
bullying us right now is because they feel they can impose their will on
48:47.7
us in ways that they can take cannot on our neighbors.
48:50.8
Okay with our neighbors.
48:51.6
They're eventually accepting a kind of a fragile status quo and investing
48:55.3
in those countries that tanggap nila hindi naman hindi naman push over
48:59.0
smile and so maybe they think we are pushovers because of the era.
49:02.8
Yeah.
49:03.5
That's correct.
49:04.2
Because during the time of Duterte Duterte was subservient obsequiously
49:08.7
subservient to China.
49:10.7
He said I love President Jinping.
49:12.5
He doesn't want to displease.
49:14.1
He barred our our Navy from patrolling the EZ.
49:18.0
So China got used to that and China wants that to be the status quo.
49:23.8
That's the status quo that Harry Rock is saying.
49:27.9
We don't want that kind of status quo.
49:30.1
So
49:32.1
now that we are
49:33.5
asserting our sovereign rights.
49:36.1
China is of course reacting but we cannot be the the admin out here.
49:42.3
Everybody gets their gas except us.
49:44.3
Why?
49:44.6
Because we are stupid.
49:46.5
We we we we knelt before China.
49:50.4
Duterte said I love President Jinping.
49:53.4
How can you say that when President Jinping says you cannot get your gas?
49:57.5
That's ours.
49:59.0
How can he still love President Jinping?
50:02.6
So
50:03.5
we have to correct that and
50:06.5
and
50:07.5
President Marcos Junior
50:10.1
his political survival depends on that also.
50:13.5
So he has no choice really.
50:17.7
Therefore we don't want to give him also too much of a credit, right?
50:21.7
Because this is also a question of Marcos looking for its own interest knowing what what's what's
50:27.0
what's in store.
50:28.7
Just just
50:30.0
for the last part here.
50:31.1
Um,
50:33.5
would it be enough joint patrols with the United States?
50:36.3
I mean,
50:36.5
to what degree do you think the Chinese will?
50:38.9
I mean,
50:39.2
dito sa ayong insyoal kasi medyo nakakabala na yung situation e.
50:41.9
Diba?
50:42.3
Naging lethal na almost.
50:43.9
Itong I mean people could get killed with the water pressure they're using.
50:48.1
Kung tumama yan nabangga ka patay ka diba?
50:50.3
If not directly even yung yung parang punching power ng sampung Pacquiao yata yan e.
50:55.5
So we are already in this very serious situation here where China is really tightening the news.
51:01.1
Is joint patrols
51:02.3
up gonna do it?
51:03.6
I mean,
51:03.8
shouldn't there be something more drastic aggressive?
51:06.3
I mean,
51:07.5
I mean,
51:07.9
joint,
51:08.7
I mean,
51:08.9
I don't know like while the Philippines is doing resupply,
51:11.5
should there be American warships just over the horizon or drones?
51:15.0
I mean,
51:15.6
what are we looking at here?
51:17.4
Realistically?
51:19.2
Well,
51:20.5
we have to prioritize.
51:23.5
I think in joint patrol in the reed Bank,
51:26.3
it's there's no question that is totally underwater even a tie a low tide.
51:31.3
You don't see anything.
51:32.4
So we should prioritize that.
51:35.3
We have joint patrol.
51:36.3
The U.S.
51:36.7
has offered to have joint patrol there and many countries has offered have offered to have joint patrol and they will because they did that for Malaysia and Indonesia with whom they don't even have a mutual defense treaty.
51:49.6
Now you can show is special because it's low tide and very near Mischief Reef and the
52:00.9
you know,
52:02.3
it's a matter of pride for ourselves that we should be able to resupply our own.
52:07.9
It should be the last resort.
52:09.4
We should do everything to do it on our own before we ask the U.S.
52:15.0
to jointly patrol at the time.
52:17.4
We deliver the supplies.
52:19.6
I think we're not yet there.
52:22.3
We can we can still deliver although we get hit.
52:28.3
But I think priority is to get the gas and
52:30.9
then we can talk sit down with Americans.
52:33.4
I like that statement of the U.S.
52:35.6
Admiral before the U.S.
52:37.7
Congress that the use of what I can on.
52:40.5
Yeah, John.
52:41.0
I guess if if somebody dies if Coast Guard personnel dies because of a water column, then that is we can invoke the treaty.
52:50.7
Let's magnify that.
52:52.4
Let's put that as a as the interpretation of what is an armed attack.
53:00.0
We let's
53:01.4
use that so that it sends a message to China.
53:04.8
You cannot do that because we will invoke already because China doesn't want us to invoke the treaty because if the U.S.
53:11.2
goes there, they really cannot do anything.
53:13.6
I mean,
53:15.0
they have a how many they have about 450 nuclear weapons.
53:19.6
The U.S.
53:20.2
is 5500.
53:21.7
They will be buried.
53:22.6
They know that they can't they cannot afford to go to an all-out war.
53:26.9
So their strategy is just to intimidate us.
53:31.4
And you think the Americans are all yeah, but just this of course, they counter question.
53:35.8
But do you think the Americans are also willing to push the envelope on this?
53:40.2
Yes, the Americans did it for Malaysia for Indonesia and the credibility of the U.S.
53:45.3
is at stake here.
53:47.2
And that's why every time they're here and official they repeat that the MDT military applies to the West Philippine Sea including the Coast Guard.
53:57.0
So they really trying to recover their.
54:00.8
Credibility because they really botch it.
54:03.0
It botch it in Scarborough shore.
54:05.2
Yeah, they wobble their knees wobbled in Scarborough shore.
54:08.3
And that was your time also right in mischief.
54:11.6
They also didn't help us.
54:13.0
They also didn't help us.
54:14.6
Yeah.
54:15.0
So now they're trying to recover and we can take advantage of that.
54:19.0
But we know that we're not going we don't want to go to war.
54:22.0
We just want to get our natural our oil and gas.
54:25.5
We don't want to go to war with China.
54:27.3
That's crazy.
54:28.7
We want to get our gas.
54:30.9
And that's our right.
54:32.2
That's our legal right under international law.
54:34.8
So essentially the argument here is that China doesn't want war.
54:37.4
The Philippines doesn't want war.
54:38.6
The U.S.
54:39.0
doesn't want war.
54:40.0
But the fact of the matter is that if we don't fight our own fight, then U.S.
54:44.4
is not going to help us.
54:45.4
And if U.S.
54:45.9
doesn't help us, then China is not going to respect us, right?
54:48.5
I mean, that's essentially the logic here, right?
54:50.4
Yeah, that's the bottom line.
54:52.3
So the U.S.
54:54.1
will help us if we if we help ourselves.
54:56.7
We cannot tell the U.S.
54:58.3
Go get the gas for us.
54:59.7
No, we have to go.
55:00.7
There they will help us.
55:01.9
They will protect us.
55:03.6
But we have to do our part and we and you know, we have really to increase
55:09.0
our our naval strength or Air Force or military because for them, they really
55:15.9
spend a lot on their military and if they see their different mutual defense
55:21.7
partners refusing to spend anything and relying on them completely, that's
55:26.1
terrible.
55:26.6
I mean, they will lose.
55:28.0
I mean, they wouldn't want to help us.
55:30.7
Yeah, I mean, especially if someone like I don't know, Trump comes back to the White House.
55:35.0
I'm in South Carolina right now.
55:36.9
I'm sure a lot of people here are excited for Trump 2.0.
55:40.4
So, you know, I'm wondering what are we going to do once once Trump comes back?
55:43.8
And so this is some of the conversation I'm going to have with folks here in South Carolina
55:47.6
before heading to the blue states in the coming days.
55:50.6
You know, Richard, the U.S.
55:53.3
has been an isolationist before World War I and it can happen again.
55:58.3
Exactly.
55:58.8
That's why we have to.
56:00.2
Yeah.
56:00.7
I mean, we cannot take for granted that U.S.
56:03.7
will be there all the time.
56:04.7
That the mutual defense treaty will be there all of the time.
56:07.6
We have to prepare for the day when the U.S.
56:10.4
may get fed up spending their resources on defending areas far beyond their
56:17.2
chores.
56:18.5
So we really have to prepare for that day.
56:24.0
Just last point, Justice Carpio, what is what keeps you awake at
56:30.7
late at night?
56:31.7
The Timoha presidential question.
56:33.3
Do you fear that there could be I mean, obviously your contention, which I agree with then and
56:37.8
even Deng Xiaoping, the wiser Chinese leader said it.
56:40.4
These are intergenerational struggles.
56:42.8
But but are you concerned that there could be some stupid mistake, especially, you know,
56:48.0
some some some smart guys there in China trying to look like a hero.
56:53.3
I mean, are you worried about the kind of an accidental clashes and escalation accordingly
56:57.7
as President Marcos also mentioned in a recent interview?
57:00.2
In a recent interview with Bloomberg?
57:02.7
Well, I think the probability of an accidental skirmish or war is very low because everybody
57:10.5
knows the consequences.
57:11.7
The U.S.
57:12.1
doesn't know.
57:13.8
We don't want war.
57:15.4
China doesn't want war.
57:17.0
It's in fact, the entire strategy of China, the warfare strategies, they will not fire
57:22.7
a single shot.
57:24.3
They will just intimidate.
57:26.7
So everybody knows that you cannot cross that.
57:30.0
Because everybody loses and the most and China will lose more because militarily
57:37.7
they will.
57:38.1
They're far behind the U.S.
57:40.1
Still not so.
57:44.0
I don't lose so much sleep over that, but I lose sleep over the possibility that we will
57:52.6
miss the chance to get the gas in Reed Bank because of fear because we allow ourselves
57:57.4
to be intimidated because with that.
57:59.9
That's happened in the last six years.
58:03.3
That's a very good point of us shooting ourselves in the foot or allowing ourselves to be
58:07.2
intimidated because I think a big part of the pro-China vloggers and disinformation campaign
58:12.2
in the Philippines is to raise the fear of war essentially to cower us into submission,
58:17.1
which Duterte did many times.
58:19.2
And I found it always interesting because there's always this discussion of China as
58:22.5
a peaceful country, harmonious.
58:24.9
Charot-charot, diba?
58:25.9
Tapos war agad, diba?
58:27.9
Like this is always.
58:29.0
I think that.
58:29.6
The weird part about that kind of narrative of this.
58:33.7
They keep repeating the Chinese propaganda, which is a lie, that China never invaded a
58:39.3
country before.
58:40.8
Throughout history, they've been invading.
58:43.1
They tried to invade Japan twice but failed.
58:46.5
They invaded Korea.
58:49.2
They took a large chunk of Korea.
58:52.2
They invaded Tibet and took over Tibet.
58:55.3
They invaded Xinjiang.
58:56.8
They invaded the
58:59.6
Vietnam several times.
59:02.9
And Vietnam for a thousand years fought them on and off.
59:06.0
I mean, Xinjiang literally meets the frontier.
59:08.3
Also in the Himalayas, in Nepal, in Bhutan.
59:13.9
And they even invaded Southeast Asia.
59:16.3
They invaded Java during the time of the Majapahit Empire.
59:20.8
This is the Yuan Dynasty.
59:22.0
Of course, the Chinese will say these are the Mongolians, not us.
59:26.3
Yeah, they invaded the West Philippine Sea.
59:28.5
They invaded the Paracels.
59:30.4
They invaded the, well, of course, the Vietnamese fought them for a thousand years on and off.
59:41.5
Yeah.
59:41.9
I mean, I always say to the people, do you think that China just dropped from the sky?
59:46.4
How do you think they became so big?
59:47.9
I mean, it started with a few kingdoms in the Yellow River and all.
59:50.6
And next thing you know, it's a gigantic continental-sized nation.
59:54.2
That didn't come up peacefully.
59:55.7
I think people forget the warning states period.
59:58.5
And the whole, you know, Romance of Trinidad.
60:01.7
Now, last, pinakalast.
60:03.3
Justice Gary, what gives you hope?
60:04.9
Is there, what gives you a sense of confidence aside from the fact that
60:08.7
Presidente is no longer the president?
60:10.7
Although one of the things that keep us awake at night is the fear of another Duterte coming back from Malacanang.
60:16.6
Yes, that's true.
60:17.2
Putting that aside for a moment, what gives you a lot of hope?
60:22.0
Or at least a lot of sense of momentum that we're moving in the right direction?
60:26.5
Well, we have a...
60:28.5
I've always advocated for joint patrols.
60:33.3
And we enlarge our visiting forces agreement with other countries.
60:38.5
And it's happening.
60:39.3
We're going to have that with Japan, UK, and France are also offering.
60:45.9
We have to have a network of allies.
60:49.3
Not necessarily mutual defense, but allies that will help us in peacetime.
60:54.2
Because mutual defense is really wartime.
60:56.8
But in peacetime, you have to...
60:58.5
Show your strength also.
61:00.5
And we're doing that.
61:03.0
I think we're in the right direction.
61:05.5
And Justice Scorpio, are you also happy about, you know, the direction of, in terms of...
61:10.5
Yes, I mean, there's the disinformation, there's all of that.
61:13.5
But my thing is, I think that's because something good is happening, right?
61:18.5
I think they're realizing na namumulat ang taong bayan.
61:22.5
People are beginning to appreciate and understand how important the stakes are dito sa West Philippine City.
61:28.5
Yes, I think we're raising the awareness, the level of understanding of our people.
61:36.5
We just have to keep on talking and explaining.
61:38.5
On that note, thank you very much, Justice Scorpio, former Justice Scorpio associate, Justice Scorpio, for joining us.
61:44.5
Also my fellow, of course, colonists at the Philippine Daily Inquirer.
61:47.5
I hope, Justice, we can have more of you.
61:49.5
And then, of course, to plug it in, we also had an even more extensive discussion on my show, The View from Manila on One News.
61:56.5
So watch out also for that.
61:57.5
Later this month.
61:59.5
Thank you so much, Justice Scorpio.
62:00.5
Mabuhay ka.
62:01.5
And hopefully, hindi kayo masawa sa amin.
62:04.5
Yeah.
62:05.5
Anytime, Richard.
62:06.5
And thank you for inviting me.
62:07.5
And thank you to our viewers.
62:09.5
God bless both.
62:10.5
Have a good day, sir.
62:12.5
Bye.
62:13.5
Bye.