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RISE OF TULFOS, GRACE POE's SECOND CHANCE!???
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Richard Heydarian VLOGS
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Run time: 27:04
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00:00.0
Okay guys, ito na ang pinakainabangan natin pag-usapan natin ang surveys. Pag-usapan natin ang Senate Race 2025 and of course yet another publicly leaked survey of 2028. Mukhang in all of them, isang pinaka-winner dito, the Tulfos.
00:21.7
So I have the, so in the Paul Seisha survey, Erwin Tulfo is number one. The same also dito sa OCTA survey. But in the OCTA survey, slightly mas ahead pa si Erwin Tulfo sa number two which is si Tito Boy Soto.
00:38.0
Si Tito Soto. So 58, almost 59% si Erwin at barely 52% si Tito Soto. So medyo malaki yung agwat niya sa lahat. Kasi the rest are all below 50%.
00:51.0
Si Erwin Tulfo, maxi 60% na. So if he solidifies that lead, then mukhang hindi na siya ma-Robin Padilla kasi si Rafi na Robin Padilla. Diba out of nowhere, bigla nag number one si Robin Padilla.
01:02.2
But here, the difference with the Paul Seisha survey is that there, mukhang five and above si Ben Tulfo. Dito si Ben Tulfo is statistically tied actually almost for, well he's number four, pero hindi siya masyadong malayo dun sa number two and three which is Bongo.
01:18.8
And I can count Bongo essentially as kind of a stand-in for Digong. And then of course Tito Soto was the former Senate President. This is crazy, right? I mean, two Tulfos in the top five. Slightly different in the Paul Seisha, but essentially you have one Tulfo at least, frontrunner, and two Tulfos beyond shoe-in, right?
01:43.0
If you're in top five, that's not even shoe-in. That's like almost sure.
01:48.8
What's going on here?
01:50.0
Well, napag-usapan nga natin yan last episode. Nandun sila sa spectrum ng populism. At sa ngayon, hindi lamang sa Pilipinas, kundi around the world, yung populism na yan ay umaangat sa US, sa North America, sa Europe, sa Latin America, even here.
02:12.4
Yung paborito mong presidente ng Indonesia, diba?
02:16.2
Very populist yung kanya po and using Tito.
02:19.7
Pabawo.
02:20.3
Pabawo, diba? Pero napaka-powerful nung framework na quick fix, diba? Yun yung Tulfo brand eh. Quick fix.
02:32.9
Tatawagan nila yung police, tatawagan nila yung asawa, tatawagan nila yung government official in real time.
02:41.1
At kahit hindi ganung kalaki yung natulungan nila, ang tingin ng buong bansa ay,
02:46.2
matutulungan sila. Kaya yung ipapatulpo kita, isumbong ka tulpo, has become a household brand, diba?
02:56.3
Kahit saan, pinag-uusapan yan eh. Pinag-uusapan yan, no?
03:00.2
Kumbaga, yung The Punisher brand ni Tigoong sa Davao ay naging national brand, diba?
03:06.6
At nakakuha siya ng appeal, lalo na sa mga overseas Pilipinos na kinakambahan dun sa kanilang mga pamilya rito because of high crime rates.
03:14.4
So,
03:16.2
pagkamat iba yung narrative,
03:18.3
nandoon sila pareho doon sa populist spectrum, no?
03:22.9
Kaya makikita mo in the future,
03:25.5
yan yung nagdo-dominate, no?
03:27.3
Populist siya,
03:28.3
disruption,
03:29.5
populist siya,
03:31.3
but to Dalarosa, populist naman siya, no?
03:33.9
Marami naman mga tumatakpo na medyo may antics-antics.
03:37.0
Bakit yung itong The Tulfo brand ay pinaka-tatak dito?
03:41.6
I mean, Ronald, would it be even controversial to say na,
03:44.8
the surprise is,
03:45.7
nauna pa si Tigoong sa mga Tulfos in national politics, right?
03:50.1
Because if you think about it,
03:51.7
mas sikat ang mga Tulfos before kay Tigoong, diba?
03:54.6
If you ask anyone in 2014, 2015,
03:58.3
mas si Montolfo ang isipin mo may chance sa national office than someone like Tigoong, right?
04:03.8
So, the appetite was already there, yeah.
04:06.9
The gaze was there.
04:08.3
Ang tumakbo lang kasi si Senator Rafi Tulfo, no?
04:12.4
At kung ano siya, bago siyang senador.
04:14.4
Pero nagmamarka,
04:15.7
na siya, all over the place, no?
04:17.8
Bago siyang senador, less than two years,
04:20.2
pero nagmamarka siya,
04:21.9
umaangat siya sa presidential.
04:23.6
Nalampasan na niya yung lone leader, si Sara.
04:26.9
Yeah, huge.
04:27.8
In less than a few months, diba?
04:31.6
Yun yung nangyayari, no?
04:33.4
At siguro, yung difference sa populist brand ng Digo, ng Duterte, at saka ng Tulfo,
04:39.9
eh hindi violent yung Tulfo.
04:42.2
Diba?
04:42.4
Quick fix, pero hindi sila na-identify sa libo-libo.
04:45.7
Hindi sila na-identify sa libo-libong extrajudicial killings.
04:47.1
At pumura sila, pero walang...
04:49.1
Yes, yes, no?
04:50.6
At saka magaling yung performative politics ni Senator Rafi Tulfo, no?
04:55.2
Yung kanyang main advocacy sa Senate kasi, land use.
04:59.3
So sino yung kontrabida sa land use?
05:01.3
Yung mga billiards, diba?
05:03.4
Yung mga billiards, which some people love to hate, no?
05:06.7
Ikalawa, yung DepEd.
05:07.8
Bababat tayo.
05:08.7
Bababat.
05:10.4
DepEd, indirect na tama kay Vice President, no?
05:13.5
Nung kinakatay niya.
05:15.5
Si Senator Pia Cayetano.
05:17.2
Yung pinapalabas niya yung lahat ng mga papel, lahat ng mga reklamo, diba?
05:21.8
Di mo alam kung may laman nga yung papel.
05:25.2
Pero ang galing nung performance, diba?
05:27.5
Tapos yung Lotto.
05:29.9
Yung Lotto, na very popular sa mga may hirap.
05:32.5
Pa-loner.
05:33.9
Sa D, na parang ito na lang nga yung path sa mga may hirap
05:38.4
para quick fix or rags to riches,
05:42.6
eh minamanipulate pa.
05:44.8
Tapos panghuling,
05:45.5
itong bagpalat niya sa mga pulis
05:47.9
doon sa committee ni Bato.
05:49.3
Nag-walkout pa siya kay Bato.
05:50.8
Minu-huling niya at nag-walkout siya.
05:52.5
Galit na galit si Bato.
05:53.5
Pero ang beneficiary diyan,
05:55.0
si Senator Rafi Tulpo.
05:56.4
So, magaling din yung kanyang performative politics, no?
05:59.8
In reference doon sa kanilang brand.
06:02.5
So, yung brand nila,
06:03.4
Patronal, is it fair to just say it's performative?
06:07.3
Kasi performative means puro lang papogi,
06:09.8
grandstand,
06:10.6
pero palang substan.
06:11.5
As senator kasi,
06:12.9
hindi ka naman executive, eh.
06:15.5
Wala ka naman gagawing mga programa,
06:18.2
wala ka naman departamentong hawak, di ba?
06:20.5
May kaunti ka siguro mga budget,
06:22.8
pero kaya mas dominant sa Sen.
06:24.9
Yung performative politics,
06:26.4
kumagaling ka.
06:27.6
Kumagaling ka.
06:29.8
Now, speaking of Rafi Tulpo,
06:31.8
obviously, he's the man of the hour.
06:35.1
Both of us knew from other surveys
06:37.0
na he was already leading over Sara Duterte.
06:39.3
Here, he's ahead of Sara,
06:41.1
but more or less statistically tied.
06:42.5
But the trajectory, as you correctly pointed out,
06:44.4
is important.
06:45.5
Barely above 15% the other year.
06:48.1
Now, he's at 35%, right?
06:50.8
That's a huge jump.
06:52.8
And sa NCR, he's at 41% in NCR.
06:56.2
So, ang lakas niya sa Imperial Manila, right?
06:59.4
Valens Luzon, he's 37%.
07:01.9
Visayas, he's 46%.
07:04.5
So, ang lakas lang dating sa Visayas.
07:05.8
20% si Sara.
07:08.0
Dapat bailing with Sara ng Visayas, di ba?
07:10.7
Pero more than double ang lampas sa kanya ni Tulpo, no?
07:14.2
Dapat kabahayin siya.
07:15.1
Bailing with siya yan, eh.
07:16.5
Exactly.
07:17.0
And interestingly,
07:18.3
malakas siya sa ABC at 36%,
07:20.8
well ahead of everyone else.
07:22.4
And malakas siya lalos sa E.
07:24.6
Mga pinakamahirap natin, mga kaubayan.
07:26.3
So, clearly, you can see the Tulpo brand of justice,
07:29.0
the quick fix, the vigilante approach.
07:31.2
This is something that appeals to the poorest of poor people.
07:32.9
Sa D, statistically tied sila ni Sara.
07:35.7
Yes, more or less.
07:36.8
Sa poor of the poor, talagang umalagwa siya.
07:39.9
Talagang malay.
07:40.5
But then again, Ronald, this is where we see.
07:42.8
If you look at Sara, her number in NCR,
07:45.1
is not even close.
07:46.3
She's only at 26%.
07:47.7
Balance Luzon, 23%.
07:50.4
Visayas, she's even lower at 20%.
07:52.8
20.
07:54.0
It's again Mindanao that pushes up her number at 72%.
07:57.4
So, you could see,
07:58.7
it's really just Mindanao holding her competitive in this race.
08:01.8
But she's extremely vulnerable in Visayas, in Balance Luzon.
08:04.7
Pero kung may makukuha si Tulpo,
08:07.4
kung tumutuloy siya as president,
08:08.7
kung may makukuha siya na tika Bindalao,
08:11.1
baka mabawasan.
08:11.9
As running mate.
08:13.0
Oo, as running mate.
08:14.2
Baka mabawasan.
08:15.1
Oo, may mawa.
08:16.6
Ano yung, kung kukunin ni Vice President Sara
08:20.0
as running mate si Robin Padilla,
08:21.8
kung titignan mo yung numbers ni Robin Padilla
08:23.5
dito sa Vice Presidential Survey,
08:25.6
wala siya masyadong value-added kay Sara.
08:27.5
Yun nga, wala.
08:28.3
Actually, I was very surprised.
08:29.2
Wala siya masyadong value-added.
08:30.4
Kumaga, yung kay Robin Padilla,
08:32.4
naki-Sara na.
08:33.8
No?
08:34.1
Naki-Sara na yun.
08:34.9
Parang overlap lang sila.
08:36.3
Exactly.
08:36.9
So, he's just an extension of Sara.
08:38.7
Wala siyang sariling added value.
08:40.0
You're absolutely correct about that.
08:42.4
Lenny is still there at number three.
08:44.7
And interestingly,
08:45.7
Lenny is statistically tied with Sara in Visayas,
08:48.6
18 to 20.
08:50.0
And she's still doing pretty decently.
08:53.0
I mean, in the sense that she's,
08:54.1
I mean, still far away from the others.
08:56.6
But mukhang solid pa rin si Lenny at number 11.
08:59.1
Hindi yan insignificant, Big R, no?
09:01.8
Dahil 11%, no?
09:03.4
Galing ka sa pagkatalo, eh.
09:05.2
Galing ka sa pagkatalo.
09:06.8
Tapos nag-a-announce ka
09:07.9
na hindi ka tatakbo for national office,
09:09.9
magpa-focus ka na lang sa NAGA,
09:11.8
di ba?
09:12.0
At natahimik ka
09:14.3
for two years.
09:15.6
Dahil nagpahinga ka,
09:17.5
nagbiyahi ka, etc.
09:18.8
Pero meron ko pa rin 11%.
09:20.5
That could be the solid pink.
09:22.9
That could be the solid pink.
09:24.5
At kung maghahanda siya
09:26.0
or yung kanyang
09:27.0
i-recommend na successor,
09:30.5
kung maghahanda siya,
09:31.8
mas mahaba yung panahon,
09:33.0
unlike yung 2022 election,
09:35.4
na nag-decision siya tumakbo
09:37.8
on the day of the filing.
09:39.7
Kaya,
09:40.3
hindi ko sasabihin na insignificant
09:43.5
yung 11%.
09:44.3
Base sa kanyang
09:46.0
lasting contact.
09:48.0
Especially if magsama-samang
09:49.5
opposition and all,
09:50.8
Riza, Lenny, whatever,
09:51.6
it goes, it rally behind
09:52.7
one candidate,
09:53.7
then they could be
09:54.5
kind of a third force.
09:55.7
Because I'm sure a lot of people here,
09:57.2
Amy, Robin, Hood, Padilla,
09:58.9
I'm not sure if they're really
09:59.9
gonna run down the road.
10:01.1
But aren't you surprised also
10:02.3
with the vice-presidential situation?
10:04.9
Or perhaps we shouldn't be surprised,
10:06.8
Grace Poe is in a very good position
10:09.4
to become the next vice-president,
10:11.9
assuming she can maintain
10:13.3
her momentum.
10:14.3
Kasi patapos na yung term niya
10:15.6
next year.
10:16.2
So the question is what she will do
10:17.6
from 2025 to 2027
10:20.4
until the campaign starts for her to be.
10:23.2
Are you surprised?
10:24.1
Kasi ang alam ko,
10:26.1
she was being considered
10:27.5
as vice-presidential candidate
10:29.1
by at least one or two persons
10:30.8
I knew in last race.
10:32.8
Pero hindi na daw siya tumakbo
10:33.9
dahil tumakbo si Tito Soto
10:35.7
because, you know,
10:36.3
they're family and whatever.
10:37.7
But my sense also is that
10:38.7
perhaps she was not as competitive
10:39.8
as she could be
10:40.5
because they're Sarah.
10:42.0
But in the next cycle,
10:43.4
it looks like,
10:44.1
Grace Poe may have her second shot
10:46.2
at the top offices of the land.
10:48.5
That's uninteresting
10:49.2
because Grace Poe also represents
10:50.4
another form of populism, right?
10:51.9
The kind of FPJ kind of populism.
10:54.6
Yes, exactly.
10:55.7
Hindi ako surprised
10:56.6
dahil nga yung pinag-uusapan natin
10:59.1
populist spectrum
11:00.2
ay nandun din yung FPJ brand.
11:03.9
Yung vigilante culture natin.
11:08.7
Napakalakas eh.
11:10.7
Or actually more like messianic.
11:13.0
Savior.
11:13.4
Yes.
11:14.1
Kasi hindi naman vigilante si FPJ.
11:16.2
In fairness naman,
11:16.8
he was a great guy.
11:17.6
God bless his soul, right?
11:19.2
Yes, yes.
11:19.8
At least yung mga movies niya.
11:21.5
Yung mga movies niya
11:22.4
is also out of the box.
11:23.7
Yes, mag-alpha may Eleonora.
11:26.0
Sabi mo nga, messianic.
11:27.6
At yan,
11:28.1
ay nag-rub on pa rin
11:29.6
kay Grace Poe.
11:32.9
In fairness,
11:33.9
meron namang deliverable si Grace Poe
11:35.8
nung siya ay naging senador.
11:37.7
Pero,
11:38.5
ang dominant pa rin
11:40.6
pag iniisip ng mga tao si Grace Poe,
11:42.5
ang naiisip nila si FPJ.
11:44.1
Which is also
11:46.1
within the populist spectrum.
11:49.3
Okay.
11:50.7
Let's talk about Grace Poe
11:52.0
because this is an
11:52.8
interesting situation, right?
11:55.8
Obviously,
11:57.2
siya yung naging betanwa
12:00.7
ng quote-unquote
12:02.1
dilaw people.
12:03.1
Everyone is blaming her
12:04.3
among those people,
12:05.3
not me.
12:06.3
Na siya yung dahilan
12:07.0
na nalalo si Digong
12:08.0
nung 2016.
12:09.4
Ako,
12:10.1
to be honest,
12:10.6
I don't know if you agree with me, Ronald.
12:12.2
Let's talk about this
12:12.8
kasi we haven't talked about it
12:13.9
that much.
12:14.4
So, I'm glad that we can talk about
12:15.6
Grace Poe again
12:16.3
because we assume
12:18.6
she's not a factor
12:19.5
when in fact,
12:20.1
she can be once again a factor.
12:21.7
And she's way ahead.
12:23.2
I mean,
12:23.3
she's at 35%
12:24.7
for vice presidency.
12:26.5
The second one is
12:27.3
Amy Marcos
12:28.3
at 16%.
12:29.8
And Laio,
12:30.4
it's not even close.
12:31.0
And then the others are like 14%.
12:34.2
Robin Padilla is even very weak
12:35.9
also as vice president.
12:37.7
So,
12:38.0
it looks like
12:39.5
if she just doesn't do anything stupid,
12:42.5
she would be in a very,
12:43.7
very advantageous position.
12:45.9
It's just a question of
12:46.5
sino pipili niya
12:47.3
as her presidential mate.
12:48.5
I mean,
12:48.9
you can imagine
12:49.5
Rafi Tulfo and Grace Poe.
12:50.9
I mean,
12:51.1
that would be also
12:51.7
very interesting setup.
12:53.2
So, let's talk about Grace Poe a bit.
12:54.9
Before we talk about
12:55.8
the opposition.
12:58.2
First of all,
12:58.9
I mean, Ronald,
12:59.3
itong basa ko,
13:00.4
kung hindi nagkalat si Binay
13:02.5
dun sa mga debates,
13:03.5
I think Binay
13:04.2
could have won
13:05.3
the 2016 race
13:06.6
because he was already
13:07.5
number one by January.
13:09.0
And clearly,
13:10.1
after yung mga debates,
13:12.0
his performance
13:12.6
was just so bad.
13:13.6
I think,
13:13.7
if I were his team,
13:15.3
I would say,
13:15.6
Sir, wag mo nang patulan.
13:16.7
Gawin mo yung ginawa
13:17.3
ng unit team last elections.
13:18.6
Diba?
13:19.0
Gawa ka ng sarili mong
13:19.9
seminar debates, whatever.
13:21.3
Or don't just do anything
13:22.3
like Sara.
13:23.8
Of course,
13:24.3
I disagree with that
13:25.2
in principle,
13:25.9
but that would be strategy
13:27.2
kasi mahirapan talaga
13:28.2
siya i-defend yung mga,
13:29.4
alam mo na,
13:29.8
yung mga controversy back then.
13:31.4
So, for me,
13:31.9
the biggest factor
13:32.5
why nanalo si Digong
13:33.8
is because
13:34.4
Binay
13:35.3
completely just
13:36.3
collapsed
13:37.4
because Binay was
13:38.3
the populist
13:39.3
par excellence
13:40.1
of Philippine politics.
13:41.5
I mean,
13:42.1
ganito kami sa Makati,
13:43.3
ganito,
13:43.4
gusto ko maging ganit.
13:44.3
I mean,
13:44.6
how can you even beat that?
13:46.2
Again,
13:46.8
we know the facts of
13:47.8
Makati and all,
13:48.7
but in terms of messaging,
13:50.8
branding,
13:51.3
ang ganda nung brand
13:52.2
ni Binay
13:52.9
in every sense of the word.
13:54.0
The infrastructure,
13:55.5
the ILG infrastructure,
13:56.8
everything he had
13:57.3
during the time of Pinoy.
13:59.0
So,
13:59.8
the graceful one
14:01.2
is interesting to me
14:02.5
because,
14:04.2
yes,
14:04.4
I understand
14:05.0
that the questioning
14:05.6
of her citizenship
14:06.4
did affect her
14:07.4
because temporarily
14:08.4
tinanggal siya sa balot
14:09.6
so that affected
14:10.2
the funding
14:10.6
and all of that.
14:11.7
But to blame her
14:13.0
for Maro
14:13.8
has not winning,
14:15.5
you know,
14:15.8
for all of the good things
14:16.9
I've said about Maro
14:17.9
has,
14:18.4
let's also be very realistic
14:19.6
about this.
14:20.3
Pag sinama yung
14:20.9
first and second preference,
14:23.4
graceful would have been
14:24.2
a majority candidate,
14:25.8
right?
14:26.2
I think
14:26.8
number three siya
14:28.3
as first preference,
14:29.8
pero pag sinama yung
14:30.6
second preference
14:31.4
and all,
14:32.0
actually graceful
14:32.9
in a run of elections
14:34.4
would have won.
14:35.1
She would have been
14:35.6
the president of the Philippines
14:36.5
kasi even if bumaba siya
14:38.2
as number one preference,
14:39.6
halos lahat ng ibang candidates
14:40.8
number two preference
14:41.7
sila si graceful eh.
14:42.6
Ito yung nakita ko.
14:42.9
Ito yung nakita ko.
14:43.0
Ito yung nakita ko
14:43.1
sa paulisasyon nun.
14:44.7
But the thing is,
14:46.0
after 2016
14:46.9
and Digong winning and all,
14:49.1
Maro has just disappeared.
14:50.8
And then graceful
14:51.6
became the kind of
14:52.4
a scapegoat
14:53.6
of everyone
14:54.6
in the pro-Maro
14:56.2
or whatever camp
14:56.9
na say,
14:57.3
eto kasing itong babae na to,
14:58.8
ambisyosa,
14:59.5
bakit ganyan,
15:00.0
bakit ganyan.
15:01.3
So in a way,
15:02.0
parang na-cancel siya.
15:03.0
If I can put it that way,
15:04.1
na-cancel siya.
15:05.1
And the thing with graceful,
15:06.7
I mean, Ronald,
15:07.0
you correct me,
15:07.5
from my understanding
15:08.2
of graceful is,
15:09.8
you're correct,
15:10.3
there's the Poe name,
15:11.2
there's the FBJ branding.
15:12.5
But if you look at
15:13.2
graceful herself,
15:14.7
she's almost
15:15.6
your typical
15:16.2
Democrat president.
15:17.7
I mean,
15:17.9
a candidate, right?
15:18.9
Like in the US,
15:19.6
like, you know,
15:20.3
liberal,
15:21.4
sound,
15:22.4
very empirical,
15:23.7
pragmatic, of course,
15:24.8
knows how to,
15:25.7
you know,
15:26.2
be centrist.
15:27.2
I mean,
15:27.4
she's a kind of
15:28.0
a centrist Democrat,
15:29.1
if I can put it,
15:29.7
like a version
15:30.2
of the Philippines, right?
15:32.4
So,
15:33.1
had she become
15:34.7
the president
15:35.1
or should she become
15:35.9
the president in the future,
15:36.9
I think she would do
15:37.9
a lot of good standard policies
15:39.5
way better than
15:40.6
what we're even getting
15:41.4
under,
15:41.7
Ferdinand Jr.
15:44.0
So,
15:45.4
ikaw,
15:45.9
what is your read
15:46.5
on the whole
15:46.9
Grace Poe episode?
15:48.3
And now,
15:49.0
she may have a second shot
15:50.3
at the highest offices.
15:51.9
Mukhang
15:52.2
hindi na wala
15:53.2
yung flame niya.
15:54.1
Old flame, eh.
15:56.1
Well,
15:57.0
in retrospect,
15:58.2
in retrospect,
15:59.2
no?
16:00.1
Anybody can be
16:01.5
better than
16:02.5
Tigong.
16:03.8
Diba?
16:04.1
In retrospect.
16:04.9
Because the bar
16:05.6
went so low, eh.
16:07.3
No?
16:07.8
Kaya,
16:08.4
Binay,
16:09.9
Grace Poe,
16:10.9
Mar,
16:11.7
si Miriam kasi
16:12.9
may sakit na noon, eh.
16:14.7
At eventually,
16:15.7
passed away.
16:16.6
So,
16:16.9
anybody
16:17.3
dyan sa apat,
16:18.6
in retrospect,
16:19.9
could have done better
16:20.8
than Tigong.
16:23.3
Ikalawa,
16:24.0
ay tama yung sabi mo,
16:25.4
no?
16:26.3
May mga variables
16:27.4
na
16:28.1
nakatulong
16:29.7
kay Tigong
16:30.2
para manalo.
16:31.6
Yung pagbagsak
16:32.6
ni Binay
16:33.2
on corruption charges,
16:35.8
two years yan, eh.
16:37.5
Two years na
16:38.1
Senate hearing yan, eh.
16:39.4
At na-mishandle
16:40.3
ni Binay.
16:41.5
Diba?
16:41.7
Na-mishandle niya
16:42.9
yung narrative
16:44.0
at saka yung
16:44.9
yung
16:45.8
management
16:47.7
nung ganong klaseng
16:49.4
offensive
16:50.1
laban sa kanya.
16:51.3
Si Grace Poe,
16:52.3
partly yung
16:53.1
kanyang citizenship,
16:54.9
muntik na siya matalo
16:55.8
sa Senate Electoral Tribunal,
16:57.8
nanalo lang siya
16:58.4
by one vote,
16:59.5
no?
16:59.9
At eventually,
17:00.8
nanalo siya sa
17:02.1
sa
17:02.2
sa Supreme Court.
17:04.2
Pero,
17:05.0
yung span of time
17:06.0
na
17:06.5
na hindi malinaw
17:07.9
kung siya ay pwedeng tumakbo,
17:09.7
cost her something, no?
17:11.0
Pero,
17:11.5
pero tingin ko
17:11.9
mas malaking
17:12.6
cost sa kanya,
17:13.8
yung kanyang narrative
17:14.7
na wala during the campaign, eh.
17:16.8
Yung kanyang narrative
17:18.2
na ampunin si
17:19.4
ampunin si Grace Poe.
17:21.4
Diba?
17:21.8
Yung sympathy
17:23.0
sa isang ampun
17:24.0
na dinedemonize
17:25.3
ng mga iba niyang kalaban,
17:27.3
nakatulong yan
17:29.0
para umangat siya, eh.
17:30.2
Pero, during the campaign,
17:31.9
especially during the debates,
17:33.6
she sounded like
17:34.6
a traditional politician.
17:36.8
No?
17:37.0
Kung makikita mo.
17:38.6
Nawala yung kanyang
17:39.7
ah,
17:40.3
ah,
17:40.9
mythology, eh.
17:42.6
Na ampun,
17:43.7
no?
17:44.0
Na sympathy sa ampun,
17:45.6
tapos dagdag yung FPJ
17:46.9
during the debate.
17:48.3
No?
17:48.6
Ah,
17:49.4
kung, ah,
17:50.1
tingin ko yung,
17:50.7
yung mga debate.
17:51.8
She did very well
17:52.3
during the debates.
17:53.0
I think she was the best
17:54.1
in the debates.
17:55.2
I mean,
17:55.3
Yes, pero,
17:55.9
pero,
17:56.5
pero ang hinahanap ng tao
17:58.0
is a,
17:58.7
is a disruptor, eh.
18:01.2
Diba?
18:01.7
Yung hinahanap nila
18:02.7
ay yung, ah,
18:03.9
emotional, eh.
18:05.2
Siya naging cognitive siya, eh.
18:07.1
Nung debate, diba?
18:08.2
Okay, let's be honest.
18:09.7
I don't think
18:10.4
the cognitive was the problem.
18:11.8
I think the problem
18:12.4
was that she's
18:13.0
oskadera effect.
18:14.5
I mean, let's be honest.
18:15.7
Eskudera's collapse
18:16.5
was even bigger
18:17.2
in terms of knowledge.
18:18.0
Yeah, takot.
18:18.4
Nakabawa sa kanya yun.
18:19.6
And then,
18:19.9
purong nagpakit lang siya.
18:21.4
Wala, wala siyang
18:22.1
substance.
18:22.7
Pero yung pinakamahalaga,
18:24.1
no?
18:24.2
In-underestimate nila
18:25.5
lahat si Digong.
18:27.2
Diba?
18:27.6
In-underestimate nila.
18:28.9
Una, yung narrative
18:29.6
ni Digong,
18:30.1
hindi siya tatakbo
18:30.9
habang nagbibuild na siya
18:32.9
ng machinery.
18:34.0
No?
18:34.7
Kinuwento ko yan, eh.
18:35.9
Kay,
18:36.2
kay Pinoy
18:37.2
tsaka kay Marre.
18:40.4
1950,
18:41.2
nung
18:41.4
February 9,
18:44.4
2015.
18:45.7
2015 na.
18:46.9
More than a year
18:48.0
before the election.
18:49.6
Dumating si Digong,
18:50.6
dumating si Bongo,
18:51.8
at kinausap nila
18:52.6
sa ERAP
18:53.3
para
18:54.1
kunin
18:55.4
si Ben Jocno
18:56.5
at saka si Lillian Briones
18:57.6
sa kanyang
18:58.3
kitchen cabinet.
19:00.1
No?
19:00.7
Habang in public,
19:02.2
sinasabi niya,
19:02.9
hindi siya tatakbo.
19:04.2
No?
19:04.5
Nireport ko yan, eh.
19:05.4
Sabi ko,
19:05.9
boss, tatakbo.
19:07.0
Huwag kayong maniwalang
19:08.1
hindi tatakbo.
19:09.4
No?
19:09.8
Yun yung
19:10.3
yung nangyari.
19:11.2
Pero ina-underestimate nila.
19:13.0
Ang tingin nga
19:13.6
ng mga iba
19:14.1
ay makakatulong siya
19:15.9
para
19:17.2
mabawasan
19:17.9
ang boto
19:18.5
si Binay
19:19.3
at saka si Gray
19:20.0
sa Mindanao.
19:21.3
No?
19:21.8
So,
19:22.6
ganun.
19:23.1
Yung ikalawa
19:23.7
ay yung substitution.
19:25.9
Di ba,
19:26.1
hindi siya nag-file, eh,
19:27.2
for president.
19:28.2
No?
19:28.8
Si Dino yung nag-file.
19:31.2
Pero,
19:32.3
ganun din yung sabi ko
19:33.1
sa kanila,
19:33.7
hindi totoo yan.
19:34.6
Tutuloy yan, eh.
19:35.9
Pero,
19:36.3
walang naniwala, eh.
19:37.5
Walang naniwala, eh.
19:38.9
At,
19:39.3
lahat sila
19:39.9
minamaliit si
19:41.0
Digong
19:41.6
dahil yung kanyang
19:42.5
absolute numbers
19:43.3
mababa pa.
19:44.6
Ang hindi nila tinignan
19:45.7
yung trajectory
19:46.5
na pinag-uusapan natin,
19:48.2
hindi nila tinignan
19:48.9
yung movement of numbers.
19:50.9
No?
19:51.0
Hindi nila tinignan.
19:51.6
And also the sentiment
19:52.3
that there's a lot of
19:53.4
backlash on APEC
19:54.7
at mga masapano.
19:56.2
I mean,
19:56.8
nag-enrage politics, eh.
19:58.8
Yes.
19:59.3
At saka hindi nila tinignan
20:00.6
yung mga mobilization,
20:02.4
yung mga rallies ni Digong,
20:03.9
talagang kwan.
20:05.4
Talagang hindi hakot.
20:06.9
No?
20:07.0
Talagang
20:07.5
spontaneous.
20:09.6
No?
20:09.9
Yung kanyang authenticity,
20:12.0
yung kanyang spontaneity,
20:13.5
umaangat.
20:14.8
Yung kanyang pagmumura
20:16.4
ay naging
20:17.3
authentic
20:18.8
para sa maraming mga tao,
20:21.3
especially the overseas
20:22.2
Pilipinos.
20:23.7
So,
20:24.1
yun yung ikatlong factor.
20:26.2
No?
20:26.4
In-underestimate nila lahat.
20:28.6
At halimbawa,
20:29.7
nung debate,
20:30.7
no?
20:31.3
He,
20:32.0
Digong did a trumpet.
20:33.7
Diba?
20:34.4
Sabi niya,
20:34.9
oh, si
20:35.7
si kwan.
20:37.2
Si Binay,
20:38.2
korap.
20:38.9
One-liner.
20:39.9
Si Grace po,
20:41.2
hindi yan Pilipino.
20:42.7
Diba?
20:43.3
Ganun lang eh.
20:44.0
Diba?
20:45.4
Tapos,
20:46.0
si Mar Palpak.
20:47.7
Diba?
20:47.8
Yung ganun niya.
20:48.5
Oo.
20:49.2
Tapos,
20:50.1
si Kwan,
20:51.1
si Miriam,
20:53.0
nagmano siya.
20:54.5
Diba?
20:54.8
Nagmano siya.
20:55.5
Diba?
20:56.1
Para siyang,
20:57.1
parang siyang
20:58.0
garandiyoso
20:58.8
kay Miriam.
21:00.3
Habang doon sa iba,
21:01.0
very critical siya.
21:02.9
Diba?
21:03.5
One-liners eh.
21:04.8
Yun ang nagmarka.
21:06.3
Yun ang nagmarka.
21:07.4
No?
21:07.8
Kaya,
21:08.1
I mean,
21:08.7
audience impact niya
21:09.7
was definitely there.
21:10.7
Tsaka yung inaasar niya,
21:11.6
uy Mar,
21:12.1
pangatlong ano mo na yan.
21:13.2
Diba?
21:13.5
Yung mga parang
21:14.0
nanervyoso.
21:15.1
Ganun niya eh.
21:16.1
Krabel eh.
21:17.3
Kaya,
21:17.9
ang tingin ko,
21:18.6
hindi naman si Grace
21:19.4
yung nagpatalo
21:20.1
kay Mar.
21:21.2
It is Digong
21:22.0
yung nagpatalo.
21:23.2
No?
21:24.1
Yung Digong
21:25.0
na in-underestimate,
21:26.3
yung Digong
21:26.9
na naging spontaneous
21:28.8
at saka authentic,
21:29.9
no?
21:30.5
Eh,
21:30.7
talagang lahat sila
21:31.5
matatalo.
21:33.3
Tingin ko,
21:33.9
or because yung tatlo,
21:35.7
nagpatayan yung tatlo,
21:36.9
he just came from behind,
21:38.0
right?
21:38.6
Prince Paul versus Mar.
21:39.7
Dahil na in-underestimate nila eh.
21:41.8
In-underestimate nila.
21:43.0
Ang tingin nila,
21:43.6
silang tatlong makakalaban.
21:45.4
Hindi si Digong.
21:46.6
Abang si Digong,
21:47.6
hindi nila na-monitor,
21:48.9
pataas na ng pataas
21:50.0
yung trajectory.
21:51.7
No?
21:52.3
Paganda na ng paganda
21:53.3
yung mga mobilizations.
21:54.8
No?
21:55.0
Etc.
21:55.5
So,
21:57.1
medyo naka-perfect storm
21:58.3
si Digong
21:58.9
noong 2016.
22:02.3
Kaya hindi ko i-blame,
22:03.6
hindi ko i-blame yung iba
22:04.7
sa pagkatalo nila.
22:06.3
Ang i-blame ko,
22:07.2
si Digong.
22:08.0
Katalo sila
22:08.7
because of the Digong
22:09.6
narrative.
22:11.5
Yeah.
22:11.8
The Digong ecology.
22:13.1
I would also say
22:14.3
this way.
22:17.7
Definitely,
22:18.4
there was a lot of problem
22:19.2
on the side of Binay.
22:21.9
I'm talking about tactics pa.
22:23.5
I'm not even talking about
22:24.5
substantive problems.
22:26.4
I also think
22:27.6
the problem was
22:29.7
both Mar and
22:31.6
Po
22:32.4
did not
22:33.8
or were kind of
22:34.9
not encouraged to
22:36.0
or discouraged from
22:37.2
pushing it to the next level.
22:39.4
You know,
22:39.6
what I mean here, right?
22:40.5
I mean,
22:40.7
God bless his soul,
22:41.8
Pinoy.
22:43.0
He had a lot of good things
22:44.4
to bring to the table.
22:45.6
But honestly,
22:46.5
you're not going to win the presidency
22:47.7
by promising the same thing.
22:49.2
Especially when
22:50.0
the limits of that approach
22:52.0
was already exposed
22:53.0
by 2014-15.
22:54.8
So,
22:55.4
honestly,
22:56.0
you tell me if I'm wrong.
22:57.4
My understanding is
22:58.3
Mar,
22:59.7
personally,
23:00.3
some people in his camp
23:01.4
wanted him to
23:02.3
go to the next level
23:03.7
and admit many of the shortcomings
23:05.6
of his friend.
23:08.0
But,
23:08.5
mukhang,
23:08.9
there was an intervention.
23:09.6
I'm not going to say who,
23:10.8
but I'm kind of privy
23:12.0
to some of the conversations there.
23:13.2
Again,
23:13.4
we're saying this
23:14.3
not in the context of Marites
23:15.6
or politicking.
23:17.6
We're saying this because
23:18.5
I think
23:19.0
people also have to realize
23:20.6
the Mar and the Po
23:22.0
that we saw
23:22.5
were not the best version.
23:24.3
My understanding is that
23:25.3
Grace Po,
23:25.8
kung siguro hindi siya
23:26.6
nag-team up kay Escudero
23:27.7
and the thing with Mar
23:29.1
was resolved,
23:29.7
you would have seen
23:30.2
a different Grace Po.
23:31.2
A much more out there,
23:32.4
much more
23:33.1
inspirational Grace Po.
23:35.1
So,
23:35.6
I think that was the other thing
23:37.1
that both of them
23:37.9
underperformed
23:38.7
and both of them
23:39.4
were kind of like
23:39.9
ipit yung isang kamay nila.
23:41.7
You tell me,
23:42.6
Ronald,
23:42.9
kasi yan ang pagkaintindihan ko.
23:44.4
Yes, yes, yes.
23:44.7
Some people don't know
23:45.5
what this means.
23:46.5
Yung brand ni Mar
23:47.8
is basically
23:48.7
the brand of Pinoy.
23:50.9
Diba?
23:51.2
Tama yung sabi mo
23:52.3
na dapat nakakreate si Mar
23:54.2
ng sarili niyang brand.
23:55.6
No?
23:56.2
Pero,
23:56.9
nandun siya sa shadow
23:57.9
ni Pinoy
23:58.5
at hindi siya nakaalis doon
23:59.8
at yung brand ni Pinoy
24:01.0
na hindi naman
24:02.0
bagay sa kanya
24:03.2
ang naging dominant brand.
24:04.8
No?
24:05.4
Hindi na necessarily
24:06.3
fault yan eh.
24:07.3
Fault din yan
24:08.0
ng Bosco.
24:09.4
No?
24:09.9
Nang Bosco.
24:10.7
Dahil,
24:11.8
nung in-endorse na si Mar,
24:13.5
in-endorse na si Lenny,
24:15.5
talagang
24:15.9
napakalaki
24:17.0
nung kanyang shadow
24:18.1
sa likod nila.
24:19.4
Hindi,
24:19.7
hindi nakaalis.
24:21.8
Dapat parehong
24:23.0
nagkaroon ng effort
24:23.8
to create
24:24.5
a different brand.
24:26.2
Diba?
24:27.0
Both si Pinoy
24:27.8
at saka si Mar.
24:28.9
But all of that
24:29.7
is in retrospect.
24:31.5
No?
24:32.5
Binabalikan natin ngayon.
24:34.7
But, Ronald,
24:35.4
we're not doing retrospective
24:36.9
you know,
24:37.5
to assign blame and all.
24:39.4
I'm just trying
24:40.3
to make sense
24:41.2
out of Philippine politics
24:42.9
kasi I think may tendency
24:44.0
tayo sa Philippines.
24:45.4
Total analysis tayo.
24:46.8
And then,
24:47.0
kung tapos na elections,
24:47.9
as if nothing happened.
24:48.8
Ganun talaga eh.
24:49.5
Parang tadhana.
24:50.3
Yung ganun yung approach.
24:51.8
When in fact,
24:52.4
we can learn lessons.
24:54.6
Having good luck
24:55.4
in making sense
24:56.2
sa Philippine politics.
24:57.8
Well, I mean,
24:58.5
that's why we have
24:59.2
this podcast.
25:01.3
It's my bread and butter.
25:03.4
Oo, para lang ano,
25:04.9
mamaintain natin
25:05.8
yung C-level
25:06.6
na lifestyle natin.
25:07.5
But,
25:07.8
Ronald,
25:09.4
again,
25:10.5
my thing kasi is,
25:12.1
look at it.
25:13.2
BBM
25:13.6
was a loser
25:15.0
in 2016.
25:16.7
And yet,
25:17.0
he comes back
25:17.5
and gets the biggest
25:18.4
margin of votes.
25:20.8
And again,
25:21.2
we can of course
25:21.8
talk about the circumstances.
25:23.3
Yes, but
25:24.1
he kind of broke
25:26.2
a kind of
25:26.7
presumption,
25:28.3
right?
25:28.5
A long-held myth
25:29.8
or presumption na
25:30.9
you know,
25:31.9
once natalo ka na
25:32.7
sa isang ganyan level,
25:33.9
tapos ka na.
25:34.5
But actually,
25:35.1
BBM proved that
25:35.9
you can come back
25:36.7
and even come back
25:37.4
with a vengeance, right?
25:38.7
Yes.
25:39.0
And they said,
25:39.4
Lenny could still
25:40.2
be competitive
25:40.8
if she comes back.
25:41.8
And now,
25:42.6
we're seeing with Grace Poe,
25:44.2
hindi tapos ang laban niya.
25:45.2
She could actually come back
25:46.2
and do even better
25:47.5
than what many people
25:48.7
expected back in the day.
25:50.0
So,
25:50.1
we're doing this retrospective
25:52.1
because we're trying
25:53.1
to understand
25:53.6
what is right
25:54.4
for these people
25:55.1
if they want to win it back.
25:57.4
At bata pa siya.
25:58.9
Bata pa siya.
25:59.8
Bata pa siya,
26:00.2
exactly.
26:01.2
She can reinvent herself.
26:03.6
Exactly, exactly.
26:04.6
And learn,
26:05.0
sabi mo,
26:05.5
learn from the past.
26:07.4
Yeah,
26:07.6
and as far as the Tulfos
26:08.5
are concerned,
26:09.0
they're gonna juice it
26:10.1
while they're hot, right?
26:11.9
One,
26:12.3
two,
26:12.7
three.
26:13.4
Balit ako,
26:13.9
ba't yung kuya nila
26:14.8
gusto na sumali?
26:17.5
So,
26:18.1
medyo maglosapan na yan,
26:19.7
di ba?
26:20.5
Wait lang,
26:21.0
pagyaka.
26:21.9
Bakit?
26:23.2
Bakit?
26:23.8
Sinong kuya nila?
26:24.9
Yung nag-gold?
26:25.3
Alam mo na.
26:27.8
Original.
26:28.6
Original.
26:30.1
Original.
26:31.0
No,
26:31.5
again,
26:32.0
I like this discussion,
26:33.3
Ronald,
26:33.5
because
26:33.8
you cannot have
26:35.4
proper analysis
26:36.1
of the future
26:36.6
if you don't keep on
26:37.6
trying to make sense
26:38.4
out of the
26:38.9
past.
26:39.0
I mean,
26:40.0
this is dialectical,
26:41.0
right?
26:41.2
The past makes sense
26:42.0
in context of the present
26:44.5
and the future
26:45.2
can be traced
26:46.4
from how you understand
26:47.4
the past and the present.
26:48.4
So,
26:48.6
that's what I'm talking about,
26:49.5
Ronald.
26:50.2
Thank you,
26:50.8
Ronald.
26:51.2
Grazie.
26:51.8
Grazie.
26:52.6
Now,
26:53.0
I think let's talk about
26:54.0
in the final episode,
26:55.4
politika,
26:56.4
geopolitika.
26:57.8
Thank you very much.
26:58.8
Grazie.
26:59.3
Grazie.
27:00.6
Grazie.
27:02.1
Grazie.
27:02.7
Grazie.
27:03.0
Grazie.
27:03.1
Grazie.
27:03.1
Grazie.
27:03.5
Grazie.
27:03.5
Grazie.
27:03.6
Grazie.
27:03.6
Grazie.
27:03.7
Grazie.
27:03.7
Grazie.
27:03.8
Grazie.
27:03.8
Grazie.
27:03.8
Grazie.
27:03.8
Grazie.
27:03.9
Grazie.
27:03.9
Grazie.