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00:00.0
remember during the campaign, he said
00:02.3
even before the campaign
00:04.6
he said that we are wasting
00:06.5
our money. We should not be buying warships
00:08.5
and warplanes because
00:12.9
I mean, he filled that mindset.
00:16.1
dividious. But now he has turned around
00:18.3
and I'm supportive of that.
00:20.2
I'm very happy now that
00:22.0
we have a president who's there to
00:24.1
defend the West Philippine Sea
00:25.5
to assert the arbitral award.
00:28.4
And of course, there are
00:30.0
other issues. But as far
00:32.3
as the West Philippine Sea is concerned,
00:34.2
I'm happy with our
00:36.1
foreign policy right now.
00:38.1
And speaking of the direction
00:40.0
of our foreign policy right now,
00:44.3
don't you think there could
00:46.2
be also a problem of overcompensation?
00:48.6
Because obviously we're in a catch-up
00:50.1
time, right? We're trying to catch up for
00:52.1
lahat ng mga kakulangan ng panahon ni Digong,
00:54.7
catch up in terms of our defense
00:56.0
capability acquisitions. So
00:58.0
the counter-argument right now
00:59.9
would be maybe Marcos Jr.
01:01.9
is overly going into the American
01:03.8
camp and perhaps that could be
01:05.5
also used by the Americans to push
01:07.9
their own agenda in this part of the world. I mean,
01:09.7
I know this sounds like the usual propaganda
01:12.0
from the left or something like that. But
01:13.8
I mean, this is the United States. After all,
01:15.9
it has its own national interest, right?
01:18.0
And I think as far as the U.S. is concerned, they want
01:19.9
maximal access to Philippine bases,
01:22.1
whatever, because they want to protect
01:23.8
Taiwan. They want to protect, I don't know, their own
01:25.9
forward deployment capabilities in this part of
01:27.9
the world. How do we also balance against,
01:29.9
you know, that potential of
01:31.5
over-swinging to the other
01:33.7
side? And what is your reading of how Marcos
01:35.7
Jr. has so far been, you
01:39.9
his foreign policy accordingly?
01:43.5
the real purpose,
01:45.8
the battle in the West Philippine
01:47.8
Sea is whether we can get the
01:49.6
gas. At the end of the day,
01:53.3
is about natural resources.
01:56.0
Can you exploit the natural resources
01:57.9
in the EEZ that belongs to you?
01:59.9
At the end of the day, can we get the gas
02:07.6
we can send a message to China
02:10.1
if you don't want
02:13.7
this new EDCA basis,
02:16.3
additional EDCA basis
02:19.6
don't stop us from
02:22.0
getting the gas in Reed Bank.
02:24.0
If you don't want us
02:27.9
the U.S., don't stop
02:29.7
us from getting what belongs
02:33.8
I think all that we're doing
02:37.7
increase our leverage,
02:40.4
to build up our leverage
02:43.4
what you're doing is forcing
02:47.6
closer to the Americans because we need desperately
02:50.1
the gas. It will be terrible
02:51.9
for our economy if we have to
02:55.6
That's the Malampay
02:57.5
supplies, 40% of the energy requirement,
02:59.7
40% of the zone. And if we have to
03:01.7
import that, can you just imagine,
03:10.3
power rates would go up tremendously.
03:14.0
We will be, it will be,
03:16.5
all the foreign investors
03:17.9
will leave the country because
03:19.1
power is a very large
03:22.8
operating costs, especially if you're
03:25.7
in manufacturing. They will all leave.
03:27.9
And even our domestic
03:29.7
they can't compete
03:38.1
send a message that we have to get that
03:40.0
gas. If you don't want
03:43.8
put up additional Edgar sites,
03:46.7
yes, we can stop that.
03:48.1
But you have to give us our gas.
03:52.0
just developing a leverage now.
03:54.0
And I think we still have to develop
03:57.8
Leverage in terms of
03:59.7
Telling the Chinese that, you know,
04:01.0
we have our options also
04:03.4
in terms of giving
04:06.7
These Edgar sites
04:09.5
give us also a leverage
04:13.8
with respect to the Americans.
04:15.4
We will tell the Americans,
04:16.9
you have to accompany us when we go to
04:19.5
RID Bank to survey and drill, just like
04:21.6
what you did for Malaysia and Indonesia.
04:26.0
then, it's a dual
04:27.7
purpose. We use this,
04:29.7
to tell China, if you don't want
04:32.2
these Edgar sites, okay, but
04:34.1
give us our gas. Don't
04:35.6
prevent us. And for
04:38.1
the Americans, we're giving you
04:40.1
these Edgar sites, additional Edgar sites,
04:44.3
a joint patrol with us. Do a
04:46.2
joint patrol with us when we go to
04:48.5
RID Bank. Because
04:49.4
we are really late. It takes about
04:52.1
four years to develop RID Bank.
04:56.2
have the gas. We have three large
04:58.4
gas-fired plants in Luzon.
04:59.7
All of them were supplied
05:01.4
with gas from Malampaya.
05:04.1
But now, only two can be
05:05.7
supplied. And at the end of this year,
05:07.5
only one can be supplied. That means we will
05:09.5
have to import LNG for this
05:13.6
gas-fired plants.
05:14.4
And it's very expensive.
05:19.5
way I look at it.
05:21.4
We have to build up our leverage
05:28.9
where your contention,
05:35.7
in the West Philippines
05:36.3
is really because
05:37.1
he realized China is not going to
05:39.0
budge on the RID Bank
05:41.2
Can you just imagine
05:44.4
the gas in RID Bank,
05:45.5
we have to import LNG,
05:47.4
he will become very unpopular
05:48.8
because inflation will go up.
05:56.1
drop in his ratings.
05:57.9
It's because of inflation.
05:59.7
Prices of goods are so high.
06:02.3
And you can just imagine
06:03.6
if we have to import all our,
06:06.8
if we don't get gas
06:09.1
and import all our LNG,
06:11.2
inflation will go through the roof.
06:13.1
He will become very unpopular.
06:15.0
So, it's a matter of political survival
06:18.1
that we should get the gas in RID Bank.
06:21.3
And the only country that can
06:23.1
provide us with a
06:28.9
That's what happened.
06:29.7
That's what happened in Malaysia.
06:31.4
got the cover from both the Americans
06:34.5
and the Australian warships.
06:36.3
Indonesia got the cover from the U.S.
06:41.7
I think that's an important thing to mention
06:43.7
as we go towards the,
06:45.2
the final part of our discussion.
06:48.4
bilisan naman as always
06:49.8
and I don't want to keep you too much
06:53.3
So, your contention
06:57.5
Malaysia, Indonesia,
06:58.7
and the Australian,
07:00.6
are not having as much problem
07:03.2
in their own time,
07:05.0
a lot of that during Duterte time,
07:06.8
they held their ground, right?
07:07.8
Whether this is the
07:08.5
West Capella Petronas
07:09.8
unilateral drill by Malaysia
07:12.1
from 2019 until 2020, 2021.
07:15.8
Indonesian President Jokowi
07:17.0
going to North Natuna Sea
07:18.3
and drawing the line
07:19.1
and saying there will be no compromise
07:21.3
and their thousand years
07:22.3
of struggle against China.
07:24.8
it looks like our reading here
07:27.3
is that the reason why China is
07:29.0
so bullying us right now
07:32.1
they feel they can impose their will on us
07:35.9
they cannot on our neighbors.
07:38.1
With our neighbors,
07:38.9
they're eventually accepting
07:39.9
a kind of a fragile status quo
07:41.6
and investing in those countries
07:43.1
that tanggap nila
07:44.0
hindi naman push-overs mga yan.
07:46.7
So, maybe they think we are push-overs
07:51.4
Because during the time of Duterte,
07:53.3
Duterte was subservient,
07:55.1
obsequiously subservient to China.
07:58.4
I love President Xi Jinping.
07:59.7
He doesn't want to displease.
08:02.5
our Navy from patrolling the East.
08:05.5
China got used to that.
08:08.4
And China wants that to be the status quo.
08:11.1
That's the status quo that
08:12.5
Harry Rock is saying.
08:14.9
We don't want that kind of status quo.
08:20.3
asserting our sovereign rights,
08:22.6
China is, of course, reacting.
08:29.5
Everybody gets their gas except us.
08:31.8
Because we are stupid.
08:34.0
We knelt before China.
08:38.8
I love President Xi Jinping.
08:40.5
How can you say that
08:41.5
when President Xi Jinping
08:42.5
says you cannot get your gas?
08:46.1
How can he still love
08:47.1
President Xi Jinping?
08:50.3
we have to correct that.
08:53.2
President Marcos Jr.,
08:56.4
his political survival,
08:58.4
depends on that also.
09:00.4
So, he has no choice, really.
09:05.9
we don't want to give him
09:07.1
also too much of a credit, right?
09:09.0
Because this is also a question of
09:10.6
Marcos looking for his own interest,
09:12.6
knowing what's in store.
09:15.7
Just for the last part here,
09:19.2
would it be enough
09:21.3
joint patrols with the United States?
09:23.5
I mean, to what degree do you think
09:24.5
the Chinese will...
09:26.1
I mean, dito sa Ayungin Shoal kasi
09:27.3
medyo nakakabala na.
09:28.4
I mean, dito sa Ayungin Shoal kasi medyo nakakabala na.
09:28.9
I mean, dito sa Ayungin Shoal kasi medyo nakakabala na.
09:29.0
I mean, dito sa Ayungin Shoal kasi medyo nakakabala na.
09:29.1
Diba, naging lethal na, almost.
09:32.0
I mean, people could get killed
09:33.3
with the water pressure they're using.
09:36.1
nabangga ka, patay ka, diba?
09:37.4
If not directly, even,
09:39.0
yung parang punching power
09:40.3
ng sampung pakyaw yata yan, eh.
09:42.4
So, we're already in this
09:43.7
very serious situation here
09:45.2
where China is really tightening the news.
09:48.1
Is joint patrols gonna do it?
09:50.8
I mean, shouldn't there be
09:51.5
something more drastic, aggressive?
09:55.9
I mean, I don't know.
09:56.6
Like, while the Philippines
09:57.8
is doing resupply,
09:58.8
should there be American warships
10:00.4
just over the horizon or drones?
10:02.2
I mean, what are we looking at here
10:06.4
Well, we have to prioritize.
10:10.3
I think in joint patrol in Ritbang,
10:13.6
there's no question
10:15.2
that it's totally underwater.
10:18.5
you don't see anything.
10:19.2
So, we should prioritize that.
10:22.6
We have joint patrol.
10:23.5
The U.S. has offered
10:24.4
to have joint patrol there
10:26.6
and many countries have offered
10:29.1
to have joint patrol
10:30.7
because they did that for
10:31.8
Malaysia and Indonesia
10:33.3
with whom they don't even have
10:35.2
a mutual defense treaty.
10:38.1
a union is special
10:39.5
because it's low tide
10:41.7
and very near mischief reef
10:48.2
You know, it's a matter of pride
10:51.1
that we should be able to
10:53.8
It should be the last resort.
10:56.7
We should do everything
10:57.8
to do it on our own
11:00.2
before we ask the U.S.
11:02.2
to jointly patrol
11:04.1
at the time we deliver the supplies.
11:06.4
I think we're not yet there.
11:09.3
We can still deliver
11:12.1
although we get hit.
11:15.2
But I think priority
11:16.6
is to get the gas
11:17.7
and then we can talk,
11:19.5
sit down with Americans.
11:20.7
I like that statement
11:21.5
of the U.S. Admiral
11:25.3
that the use of water cannon
11:27.3
if somebody dies,
11:30.6
if Coast Guard personnel dies
11:33.2
because of a water cannon,
11:36.0
we can invoke the treaty.
11:38.0
Let's magnify that.
11:44.0
of what is an armed attack.
11:49.3
so that it sends a message to China.
11:51.9
You cannot do that
11:52.8
because we will invoke
11:54.6
Because China doesn't want us
11:56.0
to invoke the treaty
11:56.9
because if the U.S. goes there,
11:59.0
they really cannot do anything.
12:03.9
450 nuclear weapons.
12:06.7
The U.S. has 5,500.
12:08.9
They will be buried.
12:10.5
They cannot afford
12:11.9
to go to an all-out war.
12:14.2
So their strategy
12:15.3
is just to intimidate us.
12:18.4
And you think the Americans
12:22.2
they counter-questionably,
12:23.3
do you think the Americans
12:25.0
to push the envelope
12:27.7
Yes, the Americans did it
12:30.9
And the credibility
12:32.6
is at stake here.
12:34.9
every time they're here
12:40.3
to the West Philippine Sea,
12:42.2
including the Coast Guard.
12:45.1
they're really trying
12:47.3
their credibility
12:48.7
because they really
12:50.2
in Scarborough Shoal.
12:52.5
Yeah, they botched it.
12:53.1
Yeah, they botched it.
12:53.7
Their knees wobbled
12:54.6
in Scarborough Shoal.
12:55.6
And during your time also,
12:58.8
They also didn't help us.
13:00.3
They also didn't help us.
13:02.9
now they're trying to recover
13:04.2
and we can take advantage
13:06.9
that we're not going,
13:08.2
we don't want to go to war.
13:09.3
We just want to get
13:12.8
We don't want to go
13:13.6
to war with China.
13:15.9
We want to get our gas.
13:18.1
And that's our right.
13:19.4
That's our legal right
13:20.3
under international law.
13:23.6
China doesn't want war.
13:24.6
The Philippines doesn't want war.
13:25.8
The U.S. doesn't want war.
13:27.3
But the fact of the matter
13:28.3
is that if we don't
13:29.5
fight our own fight,
13:31.2
then U.S. is not going
13:32.6
And if U.S. doesn't help us,
13:33.8
then China is not going
13:35.9
that's essentially
13:36.4
the logic here, right?
13:38.4
That's the bottom line.
13:40.5
the U.S. will help us
13:41.8
if we help ourselves.
13:43.9
We cannot tell the U.S.,
13:45.4
go get the gas for us.
13:47.2
We have to go there.
13:48.2
They will help us.
13:49.1
They will protect us.
13:50.6
But we have to do
13:56.2
our naval strength,
14:01.3
because for them,
14:02.7
they really spend
14:03.5
a lot on their military.
14:06.3
their mutual defense partners
14:09.4
refusing to spend anything
14:11.3
and relying on them completely,
14:16.0
they wouldn't want
14:19.3
especially if someone like,
14:21.6
to the White House.
14:23.1
Carolina right now.
14:24.1
I'm sure a lot of people
14:29.0
what are we going to do
14:29.7
once Trump comes back?
14:31.4
these are some of the conversations
14:32.4
I'm going to have
14:33.6
in South Carolina
14:35.3
to the blue states
14:36.4
in the coming days.
14:38.2
You know, Richard,
14:40.5
has been an isolationist
14:42.4
before World War I.
14:44.0
And it can happen again.
14:45.9
And that's why we have to,
14:48.5
we cannot take for granted
14:50.9
will be there all the time,
14:51.9
that the Mutual Defense Treaty,
14:54.6
We have to prepare
14:58.8
spending their resources
15:00.4
on defending areas
15:03.3
far beyond their shores.
15:06.1
we really have to prepare
15:16.4
what keeps you awake
15:18.8
at the time of our
15:19.3
presidential question?
15:21.1
that there could be,
15:23.8
which I agree with,
15:24.5
and even Deng Xiaoping,
15:26.0
the wiser Chinese leader,
15:27.6
these are intergenerational struggles.
15:30.0
But are you concerned
15:31.6
that there could be
15:32.3
some stupid mistake,
15:38.5
trying to look like a hero?
15:40.7
are you worried about
15:41.6
the kind of an accidental
15:42.6
clashes and escalation
15:44.7
as President Marcos
15:47.0
in a recent interview
15:57.9
the consequences.
15:58.9
The U.S. doesn't,
16:00.4
we don't want war.
16:02.4
China doesn't want war.
16:04.8
the entire strategy
16:07.2
the warfare strategies,
16:09.0
they will not fire
16:11.4
They will just intimidate.
16:15.4
that you cannot cross that
16:22.0
and China will lose,
16:22.9
they will lose more
16:23.5
because militarily,
16:25.9
behind the U.S. still.
16:38.9
that we will miss
16:43.3
because we allow ourselves
16:44.5
to be intimidated
16:46.6
that has happened
16:47.7
in the last six years.
16:50.2
That's a very good point
16:52.1
shooting ourselves
16:53.4
or allowing ourselves
16:54.2
to be intimidated
16:55.4
a big part of the
16:56.7
pro-China vloggers
16:58.0
and disinformation campaign
16:59.4
in the Philippines
16:60.0
is to raise the fear of war
17:01.9
essentially to cower us
17:03.9
which Duterte did
17:07.0
always interesting
17:07.7
because there's always
17:08.4
this discussion of China
17:09.5
as a peaceful country,
17:18.5
about that kind of
17:19.4
narrative of disinformation.
17:21.0
They keep repeating
17:24.6
that China never invaded
17:26.4
a country before.
17:28.0
Throughout history,
17:28.9
they've been invading.
17:30.3
They tried to invade
17:33.9
They invaded Korea.
17:36.5
They took a large chunk
17:41.5
and took over Tibet.
17:42.6
They invaded Xinjiang.
17:45.3
Vietnam several times
17:50.7
for a thousand years
17:53.2
I mean, Xinjiang literally
17:54.7
meets the frontier.
17:55.7
Also in the Himalayas,
17:59.7
And they even invaded
18:03.6
They invaded Java
18:05.9
of the Madjapahit Empire.
18:08.0
This is the Yuanda
18:08.8
and it's of course
18:09.5
the Chinese will say
18:10.9
these are the Mongolians.
18:12.3
They invaded the West Philippine Sea.
18:13.1
Yeah, they invaded
18:14.3
the West Philippine Sea.
18:16.2
They invaded the Paracels.
18:17.8
They invaded the,
18:26.1
for a thousand years
18:29.6
I always say to the people,
18:31.4
do you think that China
18:32.3
just dropped from the sky?
18:34.2
they became so big?
18:35.2
I mean, it started
18:35.8
with a few kingdoms
18:36.6
in the Yellow River and all
18:37.8
and next thing you know,
18:39.5
continental-sized nation.
18:41.3
That didn't come up peacefully.
18:43.7
forget the warning states period
18:47.0
romance of the kingdom.
18:51.2
what gives you hope?
18:52.7
what gives you a sense
18:54.8
aside from the fact that
18:58.5
one of the things
18:59.1
that keep us awake at night
19:02.5
coming back from Malacanang.
19:04.0
Yes, that's true.
19:04.6
Putting that aside
19:09.7
a lot of sense of momentum
19:11.0
that we're moving
19:11.7
in the right direction?
19:19.4
for joint patrols
19:22.8
visiting forces agreement
19:24.4
with other countries
19:25.7
and it's happening.
19:27.0
We're going to have that
19:32.1
are also offering.
19:39.7
that will help us
19:41.4
because mutual defense
19:43.1
is really wartime.
19:44.1
But in peacetime,
19:45.7
show your strength
19:48.8
And we're doing that.
19:51.5
in the right direction.
19:52.3
And Justice Scorpio,
19:54.8
are you also happy
19:58.7
there's the disinformation,
20:00.1
there's all of that,
20:02.8
I think that's because
20:04.7
is happening, right?
20:05.6
I think they're realizing
20:09.7
na people are beginning
20:13.2
dito sa West Philippine City.
20:20.2
raising the awareness,
20:22.3
level of understanding
20:24.1
We just have to keep
20:24.9
on talking and explaining.
20:27.9
thank you very much,
20:29.8
former Justice Scorpio,
20:30.7
Associate Justice Scorpio
20:34.4
Philippine Daily Inquirer.
20:36.5
we can have more of you
20:37.4
and then, of course,
20:39.3
an even more extensive
20:40.8
discussion on my show,
20:42.6
The View from Manila
20:44.3
So watch out also for that
20:45.5
later this month.
20:46.9
Thank you so much,
20:50.1
hindi kayo masawa sa amin.
20:52.3
anytime, Richard,
20:55.5
and thank you to our viewers.
20:57.1
God bless you all.
20:57.9
Have a good day, sir.
