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00:00.0
From the octa-research.
00:00.8
Okay, yeah, yeah.
00:02.1
From the octa-research na lang.
00:03.7
May UP people naman eh.
00:06.6
Yeah, yeah, of course.
00:18.4
Alright, good evening.
00:19.8
Good morning, everyone.
00:20.9
Thank you so much for joining us
00:22.1
for the latest episode of our podcast.
00:24.6
Eto, may returning na tayo
00:26.1
dito sa podcast natin.
00:27.5
Of course, one of our favorite guests
00:29.1
and my former professor,
00:30.5
Professor Ranjit Rai,
00:31.6
who is also a fellow at octa-research.
00:34.3
Thank you very much, professor,
00:36.9
Thank you, Richard, for having me here.
00:38.8
Good morning, good afternoon,
00:40.3
good evening to anyone,
00:41.4
to everyone who's watching
00:42.3
this particular podcast.
00:44.9
Thank you so much.
00:45.7
Very popular podcast now.
00:50.1
Thank you so much.
00:52.6
Thanks to you guys.
00:53.9
I mean, I think definitely having
00:55.6
high caliber guests
00:58.0
who feel comfortable
00:59.0
like I said about, you know,
01:00.2
what we do in podcast,
01:01.0
it's not actually just interview.
01:02.3
It's a conversation, right?
01:04.0
It's usually, it's like one social scientist
01:06.3
to the other and all.
01:07.1
And I think that's what people appreciate.
01:10.6
so a lot of surveys have come out
01:12.7
in recent days and all.
01:16.0
Obviously, the two authoritative ones.
01:17.8
I'm not saying this because we're colleagues
01:19.1
and friends, but it's really Paul's Asia
01:21.0
and you guys who came out
01:22.1
with some very important surveys
01:23.5
that are relevant to our discussion today.
01:25.5
One is on the Senate race
01:26.7
and I can see a lot of overlap.
01:29.0
Perhaps, in a good way,
01:30.9
in the sense that there is
01:31.8
a kind of a corroboration there
01:34.8
in terms of sino yung mga
01:36.5
leading candidates.
01:38.9
At least the number one, two, three, four
01:41.7
And then sino yung potential
01:42.7
with the Magic 12.
01:43.9
But more importantly, obviously,
01:45.4
the Paul's Asia one was interesting.
01:47.5
Correct me if I'm wrong
01:48.3
if you guys also have your own version
01:50.1
kasi the charter change survey
01:52.0
was very important
01:52.8
which we had a separate episode on
01:54.7
and hopefully I'll also have
01:56.2
Ronnie Holmes of Paul's Asia Sigur
01:57.8
to also discuss their survey.
01:59.0
But I think it would be interesting
02:00.1
to also discuss in charter change.
02:02.5
But where I think your survey agency
02:05.4
has done something very interesting
02:06.9
which I saw on Twitter
02:11.0
I was tagged by some people
02:12.1
who were referring to the survey
02:14.4
whereby you're looking at political affiliation
02:16.6
for the lack of a better term
02:19.1
loyalist versus DDS
02:20.8
versus the loud pink whatever.
02:23.2
You know, this kind of pedestrian way of putting it.
02:25.6
Apparently, the survey was from you guys.
02:29.0
I heard the data from you.
02:30.3
I said, no, no, no.
02:31.3
We have to have a conversation
02:32.5
about this, Professor Wright.
02:34.1
So let's first get the ball rolling
02:35.6
because yes, the election proper
02:39.2
will be next year.
02:40.7
Yes, technically speaking,
02:42.6
Sigur mga October pa
02:43.9
magsastarting registration and all.
02:45.8
But we all know as early as right now,
02:47.3
everyone is talking about next year's elections.
02:49.1
It's just the nature of politics in our country.
02:51.8
So what is the OCTA research finding so far
02:55.0
as far as the Senate race is concerned?
02:58.0
Of course, the most high
02:59.9
And then from there,
03:00.4
let's talk about the bigger implications of that.
03:02.6
You want to share, Professor,
03:03.9
your survey so that more people can see?
03:05.5
Okay, I'll just share a screen
03:06.8
for everyone watching.
03:07.9
Yes, please go ahead, sir.
03:10.5
So just for everyone's information,
03:13.5
we do a regular survey quarterly
03:16.4
and this is our Tugulang Masa survey.
03:19.1
And this is our first survey
03:20.4
for the year 2024, quarter one.
03:23.3
So it's around political preference
03:27.2
and preferences of adult Filipinos.
03:31.2
it was conducted from March 11 to 14
03:34.5
and the gold standard face-to-face interviews,
03:38.2
1,200 respondents all around the country.
03:42.4
That's Balas Luzon,
03:44.7
the National Capital Region,
03:46.8
Visayas and Mindanao.
03:50.3
the margin of error is plus minus 3%.
03:55.5
Okay, what are the big findings?
03:58.9
here are the list of possible, no,
04:02.7
If the election for the Senate
04:04.8
was held during the period of the survey,
04:08.0
which was March 11 to 14.
04:10.5
So a note to our viewers,
04:13.4
these things, these numbers will change.
04:15.3
These rankings will change.
04:17.3
Okay, and so when you look at it,
04:19.0
look at the list,
04:20.1
it's very similar to the Pulse Asia list,
04:23.2
no, in many respects.
04:25.0
So we have Erwin Tulfo at 58%.
04:28.9
We have Tito Soto, of course, at 50%, 51%.
04:33.7
Christopher Goh, or Bom Goh, Senator Goh, at 49%.
04:38.3
And the new person we added to the list,
04:43.1
the disruptor in this list,
04:45.0
is, of course, Mr. Ben Tulfo, the brother of...
04:47.4
Another Tulfo, yeah, yeah.
04:51.0
No, but this is important
04:52.2
because this is the first time
04:54.0
we're including him in the list.
04:55.8
And he caused a major disruption, no?
05:01.7
So if you do a straight counting,
05:05.1
he is in the top five, no?
05:07.3
Okay, and of course,
05:08.1
former president Rodrigo Duterte at 38%.
05:12.2
So I guess this is the top five.
05:14.4
And yeah, this looks similar to the surveys
05:19.2
of some of the more prestigious survey companies
05:22.8
that have come out.
05:24.4
And to round off,
05:26.2
we have Benjamin Abalos,
05:30.4
These are the statistically, no?
05:33.2
The personalities with a statistical chance
05:35.3
of winning the election,
05:37.4
being the top 12, I should say,
05:40.0
if the elections were held during the survey period.
05:45.6
For some reason, I thought...
05:48.9
Ben Tulfo was the big disruptor.
05:50.6
Everybody went down because of him.
05:53.0
Just to give you a sense,
05:53.9
Erwin Tulfo was 76%.
05:57.4
He was hovering around 70%.
06:02.2
for the last two quarters.
06:04.6
His brother comes into the list,
06:06.0
he's now down by 18 points.
06:11.2
because it happens with the Heresto brothers anyway also.
06:15.2
So you put two names,
06:16.6
it also happens with the Binays.
06:18.8
So when you put two names in the list,
06:21.3
the voters tend to...
06:27.6
So now he's what?
06:29.8
He's 18 points down.
06:32.5
I think the big story here is Aimee Marcos.
06:35.3
Senator Aimee Marcos.
06:36.8
She used to be 42%.
06:38.3
She's down 13 points.
06:40.0
In fact, she's the...
06:40.8
I think one of the biggest...
06:42.2
biggest changers.
06:49.0
Not slight, but actually a significant decline
06:53.6
She's still within the top 12.
06:57.0
Her range here is 6 to 12.
06:58.9
But her number was 42%.
07:02.0
She was around that area.
07:03.8
Or that range, I should say.
07:07.2
for the last three quarters.
07:09.3
And for the first quarter of this year,
07:12.4
she went down 13 points.
07:15.2
So these, I think, are the big stories
07:17.2
for this particular survey.
07:22.0
You know, the survey findings for the quarter one.
07:25.2
I think another one,
07:26.4
if you go down the list, Richard,
07:31.5
You'd be surprised that
07:33.5
another new entrant.
07:40.4
Can you see him from the...
07:44.4
This is kind of surprising to us.
07:52.3
This is the first time
07:53.4
we're measuring his numbers.
07:57.0
What do you mean surprised?
07:58.9
That he's within the range
07:59.9
or surprised that he's not higher?
08:03.1
Surprised that he got high marks.
08:05.5
Remember that three Dutertes in this list.
08:08.9
Nominally higher than his brother, no?
08:10.9
So it also shows the power of that brand, no?
08:13.2
The Duterte brand, no?
08:14.2
It just goes to show
08:15.6
that they have a strong
08:16.5
race following, no?
08:19.0
As far as the Filipino voter is concerned.
08:21.7
Prof, just a second, sorry.
08:23.9
I don't know for some reason,
08:25.2
bakit frozen yung screen?
08:27.5
I was wondering...
08:28.6
Okay, okay, okay, I'm sorry.
08:29.5
Can you redo it again?
08:30.7
My apologies for that.
08:32.6
Yeah, I don't know.
08:34.2
Maybe it's just the internet or something.
08:35.8
Yun nga, medyo frozen siya.
08:37.3
If you can redo it again,
08:38.7
apologies for that.
08:39.4
Yeah, is that good now?
08:41.7
Yun nga, I just see the first page.
08:44.6
But I wonder bakit hindi ko nakikita
08:45.9
yung mga ibang pages.
08:48.0
Okay, is that better?
08:49.2
I wonder what's going on.
08:51.2
Bakit yung first page lang
08:52.3
pinapakita dito sa site ko?
08:56.7
That's first page lang.
08:57.7
But can you see, Bastet?
08:58.6
No, I think the thing it shows
09:01.1
is just the tugon ng mas
09:07.2
I think you're using a different...
09:09.2
Baka may iba pa yung window na bukas.
09:12.5
Ah, wala na naman.
09:13.9
Bakit kaya ganun?
09:15.3
Yeah, usually it doesn't happen.
09:16.6
So I was wondering what's going on.
09:17.8
I mean, your explanation is still valid.
09:19.5
Just for the purpose of those
09:22.1
who want to see the exact numbers and all.
09:24.9
Gusto ko lang makita nila.
09:25.9
So I was just wondering
09:26.7
what was going on.
09:28.6
This is interesting.
09:29.2
So there are two people
09:30.4
we have to talk about.
09:32.3
and the other one is Bastet.
09:34.3
And we have a situation
09:35.2
of three Dutertes
09:36.5
within the range.
09:37.9
One of them definitely there.
09:39.4
And then you also have a situation
09:42.0
of two Tulfos within top five.
09:45.4
So I'm wondering.
09:48.6
I don't know what's going on
09:50.7
Now it's moving na.
09:51.8
Yeah, it's dynamic na.
09:56.5
So Erwin Tulfo at 58.4%.
09:58.6
Which is more or less the same
09:60.0
as we see in Pulse Asia.
10:01.9
So at least the numbers
10:03.3
It's a little higher maybe
10:05.3
but still within the margin of error.
10:07.1
More or less the same.
10:07.9
So you can collaborate
10:11.1
Then you can see that
10:12.0
we can validate their list.
10:16.7
They can validate ours.
10:18.6
And I think the only difference
10:20.3
is the placement of Duterte
10:23.1
It's a little higher.
10:25.0
But this is how it came out.
10:27.1
It's almost the same.
10:28.6
Statistically the same.
10:30.7
The only big story is
10:32.0
Erwin Tulfo lost 18 points
10:35.0
is in the top three.
10:36.8
So that split the vote.
10:41.8
has a 13-point decline
10:43.5
but he's still within the top 12.
10:50.3
And then of course
10:52.4
I think still significant
10:59.6
So when we go down the list.
11:03.6
For the traditional opposition
11:08.3
I think the highest ranking
11:14.2
Pangilinan, Trilon.
11:15.3
The regular names
11:20.0
Lenny Lombred is 11.7%.
11:23.2
in this particular survey.
11:35.4
still has a very good chance.
11:38.3
Former Senator Delor
11:39.5
has an excellent chance.
11:41.8
these are just snapshots
11:43.5
of a particular period.
11:45.2
These numbers will change
11:46.7
as we come closer
11:50.7
And when we start campaigning.
11:52.9
But these are the dominant names
11:55.4
Secretary Ralph Rector
11:56.5
is not doing so bad
12:04.2
these are good numbers,
12:05.6
people thinking of
12:08.3
running for the Senate
12:09.1
in the double digits.
12:10.8
Like a base to work on,
12:12.3
A foundation to work on.
12:28.2
the highest rated
12:31.9
possible candidate
12:35.6
is Nery Colmenares
12:38.1
Which is not a surprise, no?
12:39.4
I think this is more
12:41.3
And it's stable there
12:43.0
It's still a good base
12:48.8
this candidate's name
12:53.1
Congressman Nery Colmenares
13:04.2
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
13:09.1
published version.
13:10.4
It was a packed table.
13:15.1
we gave the awareness
13:16.3
numbers for our clients
13:21.2
have a high awareness
13:22.7
Almost 100%, yeah.
13:41.6
for most of these
13:53.0
Kasi even if you go
13:57.5
there for multiple times.
13:59.0
Forget about people
14:02.8
I mean, of course,
14:05.6
other surveys here,
14:08.1
I think our understanding
14:08.9
is that this is probably
14:09.8
the most competitive
14:11.8
If all of the people
14:12.9
we think we're gonna run
14:13.9
are gonna run, right?
14:14.8
I mean, this is crazy.
14:22.8
are the only ones
14:23.5
being relatively open.
14:25.7
And you'll notice
14:30.8
between candidates
14:32.4
much, much smaller
14:41.9
it's very competitive.
14:51.5
a very good chance
14:52.4
of getting in the top 12.
14:55.5
the threshold, no?
15:00.3
within the competitive range
15:01.8
and 30% more or less
15:04.5
in a shoo-in range,
15:11.2
around 8 and below.
15:17.6
quite a shock, no?
15:21.4
considering, you know.
15:22.7
Actually, it's a shocker
15:26.6
she's not a client,
15:31.4
measuring her numbers
15:32.5
really as a proxy
15:33.5
also for the administration,
15:40.6
And to some extent,
15:42.3
although we haven't
15:44.1
for the administration yet,
15:45.3
we're still going
15:51.7
opposition in a way,
15:54.5
maybe that's quite
15:55.5
of the problem also.
15:57.5
She's more opposition.
15:59.1
let's be honest about it.
16:02.8
with that erosion,
16:07.1
on which side she is.
16:13.9
Isko and Willie Ong
16:14.8
are almost the same.
16:17.7
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
16:18.8
they were back in the day.
16:20.0
One was presidential
16:23.7
a vice presidential
16:24.6
that people were not
16:27.6
baka mag-third time
16:28.5
lucky na si Willie Ong,
16:33.5
eto, may chance na siya
16:34.4
mag-third time lucky, no?
16:36.1
for the last three quarters,
16:37.6
he's been in the top 12.
16:39.2
Yeah, pasok siya eh.
16:41.2
very few occasions
16:42.9
in the last few quarters
16:46.6
have really fluctuated.
16:48.8
It's statistically
16:51.8
in this particular quarter,
16:55.4
it's been statistically
17:03.5
two big names eh.
17:07.3
a former president
17:15.0
support for the others.
17:26.6
it kind of scrambled
17:28.3
the whole rankings
17:32.9
including the top guy
17:37.6
from 70 plus percent.
17:44.9
one implication is
17:46.8
if you're Erwin Tulfo,
17:48.0
the biggest threat
17:51.5
is your own brother,
17:54.6
ang marites sa akin
17:55.9
ang marites sa akin
17:57.5
is yung pinaka-kuya nila
17:58.8
ay napaisip bigla
18:02.2
ko rin tumakbo dyan
18:04.7
wasn't doing too bad
18:07.7
if I'm not mistaken
18:09.3
he's the OG, right?
18:11.4
a three Tulfo run
18:12.8
would be quite bad
18:13.8
for Erwin, right?
18:14.7
It could really split
18:15.5
the votes in ways
18:16.4
that happened today.
18:17.2
The explosive part
18:23.7
the opposite side.
18:25.0
you have to understand.
18:27.0
Oh yeah, definitely.
18:34.5
with the administration.
18:36.1
the Marcoses, right?
18:42.3
I'm not sure if this was
18:47.5
express their preference,
18:50.4
meron bang appreciation
18:51.3
ng mga ganyan nuances
18:52.4
or it's more really
19:00.4
we're going to build
19:00.9
the probe on that.
19:04.6
preference with culture.
19:06.4
it's a big debate
19:10.0
we're coming from
19:12.6
preferences are built
19:17.1
our political culture.
19:24.0
that we'll go to.
19:27.4
brand is important
19:28.4
and you're seeing it.
19:31.9
and still very competitive.
19:34.3
You're also seeing it
19:35.0
with the Duterte brand.
19:37.2
possible candidates,
19:43.0
are actually going to run,
19:53.3
in this particular
19:54.5
midterm elections,
19:57.0
look like the cast,
19:59.2
highly competitive
20:04.1
against each other.
20:06.7
machinery will come in,
20:10.3
political network
20:12.6
resources will come in.
20:18.6
part of our survey,
20:21.5
important if you're
20:22.6
the administration.
20:25.6
But before we segue
20:27.1
because that's where
20:27.7
we can break down
20:34.4
that's the kind of
20:42.3
sense of the word
20:52.4
as data we can get
20:53.2
but let's just say,
20:58.2
what is your sense
20:60.0
and rise of Tulfo's
21:01.0
because our understanding
21:04.3
Rafi Tulfo is also
21:05.3
now the frontrunner
21:07.8
president of the Philippines
21:09.7
in the Paul Seixas survey
21:10.6
at least from what we see,
21:11.7
it's statistically tied
21:12.8
but his trajectory
21:14.1
is just incredible
21:16.5
to 30 plus percent
21:20.3
If Lenny doesn't run
21:22.4
will go more to Tulfo
21:23.7
considering that,
21:25.6
and Lenny Robredo,
21:31.6
you're absolutely right.
21:33.3
We can talk about
21:34.1
the Dutertes shortly
21:38.5
with the Tulfos is,
21:39.9
ang basa ko dito is,
21:41.8
the surprise to me
21:43.9
made it to national politics
21:46.7
kasi if we recall it
21:49.6
the Tulfos were already
21:50.7
a national brand.
21:51.8
It was just a matter
21:52.5
of them making that leap,
21:53.9
They were already
21:55.7
and they already had
21:59.3
savior of the people.
22:00.8
Talagang top na top nila yan.
22:03.3
this is a belated
22:08.6
building of their brand
22:15.9
vigilante justice
22:17.7
let's just call it
22:19.1
I interviewed Rafi Tulfo
22:20.0
so people can check
22:20.8
the interview that I had
22:23.9
So, yun ang basa ko.
22:25.9
I want to understand
22:26.7
where you come from
22:27.5
as a political scientist.
22:28.4
Again, I understand
22:29.1
because you're now
22:30.4
in the survey agencies.
22:31.5
You want to be a little bit
22:35.1
of speculative analysis
22:36.2
but just overall.
22:40.2
with the common perceptions
22:42.1
about the Tulfo brand.
22:45.9
It's been evolving
22:48.4
The decision to run
22:51.2
and the decision to run
22:54.7
of the Duterte family.
22:56.3
To a great extent,
22:57.6
they were associated
22:59.3
with the Duterte brand also
23:03.2
many commonalities
23:04.9
that brand of leadership
23:21.8
weak institutions,
23:24.0
a state that's characterized
23:25.5
as weak on many fronts,
23:28.9
for these kinds of candidates
23:30.2
and the kinds of advocacies
23:31.7
and the leadership style
23:33.6
that they promote.
23:35.6
These tend to rise,
23:37.1
especially during hard times.
23:40.1
you see a lot of populists
23:43.0
And this particular context
23:47.2
is extremely hard
23:48.1
for most of our countrymen.
23:49.5
Mahirap na hirapan
23:50.4
uwi mga ating kababayan.
23:52.2
Naikita rin namin
23:54.8
over the last year, no?
23:57.1
Ang talagang problema,
23:59.1
urgent national concern
24:00.4
that people want to resolve,
24:02.4
that what people want
24:03.2
government to resolve
24:05.8
of goods and services.
24:07.5
Nahihirapan po siya.
24:16.2
In times of hardship,
24:29.4
The term we use is
24:32.7
strong tulfos, right?
24:38.1
That's a problem,
24:40.1
That's a struggle, yeah?
24:46.4
But that's one way
24:47.3
of looking at it.
24:48.9
appeal is very strong
24:51.0
You have to also understand
24:53.1
ethnic background.
24:55.8
They have a strong
24:56.4
support as far as
24:57.8
that's concerned.
24:58.4
Although their father
24:59.9
Last time I checked.
25:01.0
Ilocano yung daddy nila.
25:02.8
From Batak pa nga yata eh.
25:04.7
Japanese yung mom nila.
25:08.0
they're also popular
25:10.4
They're a strong candidate
25:12.5
in this particular sense.
25:15.0
You get votes everywhere.
25:18.2
assuming there's a
25:22.5
competition in 2020
25:24.2
which is so far away,
25:26.6
Rafi will have...
25:28.4
will be very competitive
25:30.8
he gets votes everywhere.
25:36.4
We just have to ask
25:41.9
had commissioned it
25:42.7
if we can release
25:45.3
tulfo versus Sarah.
25:47.5
But in our probe,
25:49.4
tulfo is not lost
25:53.8
the gap is increasing.
25:59.8
We won't give the numbers yet.
26:03.1
I appreciate that, Ranji.
26:07.0
The basic perspective is
26:09.1
in Philippine elections,
26:11.8
a two-way contest,
26:14.3
a two-way contest,
26:17.8
or the Philippines.
26:19.4
Except for the contest
26:22.4
and President Marcos Sr.
26:25.9
it's always been,
26:29.2
competing against each other.
26:31.1
Rafi Tulfo's weakness is.
26:34.2
Yes, no baluarte.
26:36.3
Duterte's a consistent baluarte.
26:40.0
attacks against them,
26:41.4
they have a baluarte.
26:42.9
it's only located
26:45.1
In the now, yeah, yeah.
26:47.1
you still have that.
26:48.7
So, in a three-way,
26:49.7
four-way contest,
26:54.6
That's a very good point.
26:55.8
Kaya nga sabi ko.
26:57.0
Yeah, kaya nga sabi ko.
26:58.4
I understand that,
27:00.2
thank you so much,
27:02.2
for at least confirming
27:03.9
I've been saying for a while
27:04.8
that not only in Paus Asia,
27:06.8
different surveys,
27:08.0
this upward trajectory
27:11.9
that's where the second
27:12.7
preference comes in
27:13.7
because it's very possible
27:15.0
that a lot of those
27:15.7
candidates there,
27:16.8
particularly Leni,
27:17.6
I doubt if she'll run
27:19.7
things could change
27:20.4
if she does well,
27:22.1
as a local official
27:25.9
that's where things
27:27.0
could get very interesting,
27:30.5
The other important factor
27:32.4
and three Dutertes
27:33.5
could potentially make it.
27:35.5
that's next level, right?
27:41.1
but three brothers
27:42.6
and three Dutertes
27:44.1
would be something,
27:48.2
veto constituency
27:56.4
if it will actually happen,
27:58.7
Things could change
27:59.9
between now and October.
28:02.3
para sa ating mga kababayan,
28:03.3
nagbabago pa yung mga numero na to.
28:05.1
At meron pang espasyo
28:06.3
para sa mga progresibo.
28:07.9
Meron pang espasyo talaga
28:08.9
para sa ating mga
28:14.6
wala pa namang kampanya,
28:16.0
although nagkakampanya na
28:17.1
informally ang lahat.
28:26.7
ang magiging malaking
28:30.8
It's gonna be expensive,
28:31.8
very competitive,
28:33.3
and parang may alas
28:37.5
Kasi marami silang resources,
28:40.6
So those associated
28:41.6
with the administration,
28:43.1
when you look down
28:44.8
yeah, but the thing is,
28:45.6
that's the big question,
28:46.9
that's the other big question,
28:48.6
Saan ba dyan yung
28:51.1
saan ba dyan yung
28:58.5
I could only think about
28:59.4
Abalos as a solid
29:23.2
interesting opposition
29:24.1
also in that sense,
29:31.0
sort of situation
29:39.5
if I'm not mistaken.
29:45.6
which is kind of,
29:47.4
they're eating to
29:48.5
splitting the vote,
29:49.8
very competitive.
29:56.2
It's just a matter
30:02.0
bigger conversation.
30:13.0
It doesn't matter
30:13.6
if you're going to
30:15.2
But it looks like
30:15.9
the way things are
30:18.8
Momentum talaga yan.
30:30.1
Statistically stable.
30:32.2
So nag-crystallizing
30:34.6
Oo, crystallizing
30:39.6
things we have to
30:58.3
significant numbers.
31:01.1
president's numbers
31:07.4
don't have support.
31:11.4
even the established.
31:25.3
know if President
33:23.4
your application?
35:40.4
some information.
37:12.0
quite surprising.
40:06.4
Partner pala tayo.
40:07.4
Pwede tayo partner
40:11.1
research assistant.
40:13.6
Gawin niyo na lang
41:14.1
educational background
41:29.2
but not surprising,
41:58.3
I was just reading
42:00.4
and then Aglipayan,
42:07.3
actual percentage
42:12.9
Very interesting.
42:28.9
is very different
42:44.2
when you look at the
43:07.9
Lagot kayo sa akin.
43:24.4
I appreciate this.
43:28.6
political families.
43:37.5
you can understand
43:38.3
their base of support
43:43.2
a lot of continuity
43:43.9
as far as government
43:44.9
and politics is concerned.
43:47.6
they're bifurcated
43:52.2
and personal interests
43:55.2
We also know that,
43:59.8
between the families.
44:13.4
that probably is yours,
44:16.9
this is very important
44:17.8
because honestly,
44:20.1
before we talk about
44:22.5
and the reason why
44:23.2
I find this very interesting,
44:24.9
aside from the fact na
44:26.0
meron mga sub-demographics,
44:31.7
kasi kung titignan mo dito,
44:38.5
traditional opposition,
44:40.9
pag sinama mo yung dalawa,
44:45.7
roughly half of the voters
44:47.4
are up for grabs,
44:49.6
for an alternative
44:50.5
to both Duterte and Marcos.
44:53.5
This is actually very important
44:54.7
if you look at it that way.
44:57.1
someone consolidates them
44:58.4
into a third force.
45:00.8
If you're planning
45:02.3
for the midterms,
45:03.8
this is important
45:06.6
But this is not surprising.
45:08.1
They're not very strong.
45:09.6
The administration
45:10.1
is not very strong.
45:15.7
they can consolidate.
45:17.3
the independents,
45:19.2
are still in balance
45:20.5
with Zon Visayas.
45:23.2
that's up for grabs.
45:27.1
this is something
45:28.5
that the administration
45:31.1
eventually becomes,
45:34.3
or takes control of it.
45:39.1
We'll have to work on.
45:43.6
plus those who did not respond,
45:51.3
very, very helpful.
45:52.3
Thank you so much.
45:54.2
I'll just call you
45:56.2
we want to have you
45:58.0
sa first-name basis na lang.
46:00.1
Professor Ranjit.
46:01.2
This is very, very helpful.
46:05.2
I found nothing shocking
46:06.7
in terms of numbers
46:12.4
I'm just kidding.
46:14.4
No, kasi I was just in Baguio,
46:16.1
Last week before I flew into US.
46:18.5
ang dami mga bumper sticker.
46:20.3
Where are you now?
46:25.4
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
46:26.0
Kaya na yung time zone natin.
46:28.8
Yeah, it's 9pm right now.
46:31.7
So, thank you so much
46:33.0
for agreeing to morning
46:35.3
Because later this week,
46:36.6
Senator Trillianis back again
46:38.3
also on our show.
46:39.5
Pero gabi sa kanya.
46:40.5
So, that's gonna be like
46:42.6
So, medyo you're gonna see
46:43.4
more sabog version of me.
46:46.3
5am is not my time talaga eh.
46:48.9
thank you so much for this.
46:51.9
can we look at the big picture now?
46:53.7
And also dito sa independence.
46:55.3
What is your read
46:56.0
dito sa independence?
46:56.8
Because I also find this
46:57.6
very interesting.
47:06.0
they may have actually
47:10.1
the question is not
47:14.7
a lot of improvement.
47:16.5
Medyo generic pa siya eh.
47:18.7
O, medyo generic pa.
47:22.6
Improve this question
47:26.0
this was not developed
47:28.4
So, the client based.
47:29.6
The client suggested
47:35.9
Nag-operationalize lang kayo.
47:37.9
Nag-operationalize.
47:40.1
improvements to improve
47:41.6
the validity of the question.
47:43.8
we can break this down
47:46.7
We try to find out.
47:50.4
the administration
47:56.6
that's also good,
47:59.6
It's not bifurcated
48:00.9
by just two families.
48:02.2
a big chunk of it
48:15.7
they want to support
48:24.7
the Liberal Party
48:30.1
they want to support.
48:35.1
but one could also
48:36.1
argue there's a divide,
48:44.9
is that it reaffirms
48:46.0
all these old images
48:47.0
of Philippine government
48:50.7
it's very personal,
48:54.6
ethnic cleavages,
48:59.3
of the party system,
49:01.8
The non-existence of it
49:03.0
has not disciplined
49:05.1
It has made our politics
49:12.2
stronger parties,
49:21.2
instead of just families.
49:23.9
a lot of the data
49:28.0
consistent images
49:29.5
of how changeless
49:31.0
Philippine politics
49:34.6
and the 40 percent
49:37.7
That's a huge number.
49:39.7
I think I'm more optimistic
49:41.4
cautiously more optimistic
49:44.7
that we discussed today
49:47.0
of the picture, right?
49:48.2
One side is the continuity part,
49:50.2
particularly continuity
49:51.4
in terms of appeal
49:57.7
I think both of us argued
49:58.8
that forget about
49:59.7
differences between
50:00.4
Dutertes and Tulfos.
50:01.3
The Tulfo brothers themselves
50:02.3
are extremely different
50:03.2
from each other, right?
50:04.1
I have interviewed
50:06.2
two very different individuals.
50:09.6
independent so far.
50:11.3
Let's see with Erwin
50:14.0
the administration
50:14.6
and then Ben Tulfo
50:15.9
different conversation, right?
50:18.2
But at the same time,
50:19.1
I think the second survey
50:20.0
was very interesting
50:20.7
because almost half
50:25.8
anti-system or something
50:31.3
Assuming certain things
50:35.0
one could construe
50:36.1
continuity of change
50:39.6
Although the data
50:42.1
to make solid arguments.
50:44.3
there's always that
50:45.0
us taking ourselves
50:46.4
out of the survey
50:47.7
the general trajectory
50:49.0
of Philippine politics.
50:50.1
There is a trajectory
50:54.5
sense of continuity
50:55.8
as far as government
50:56.6
and politics are concerned.
50:57.6
But there is always
50:59.9
that element of change
51:06.0
who align themselves
51:13.2
democracy and development
51:14.6
can actually happen
51:15.7
if we all work together.
51:19.0
that movement there.
51:22.7
hopefully that movement
51:24.0
will have more voice
51:29.2
And we hope to see
51:32.4
more survey numbers
51:35.5
to this progressive movement
51:40.2
thank you very much,
51:42.9
I'm a little low-bat here.
51:44.0
I'm a little golfy.
51:47.3
I'm a little sleepy.
51:48.9
Sleep is a preparation
51:54.0
There's so much going on.
51:55.1
I still have to write
51:57.7
in West Philippine CNL.
51:59.0
So, thank you so much,
52:00.7
This was very helpful data.
52:02.9
I'm going to refer this
52:04.8
in future lectures,
52:07.7
We hope to have you again
52:09.6
In the near future,
52:11.6
as more interesting surveys,
52:12.9
as more tightened,
52:14.6
designed surveys come in
52:16.5
I can see you're hedging
52:19.4
in a social scientist way.
52:21.9
We don't want to jump
52:23.0
into conclusions.
52:25.3
at least we have something
52:27.1
before we can make
52:29.5
or more than hopefully
52:31.0
political analysis.
52:32.2
Thank you very much,
52:32.9
Professor Ranjit Rai
52:33.7
from OCTA Research
52:35.6
University of the Philippines
52:36.3
Diliman Total Science Department
52:39.6
Thank you, Richard.
52:40.8
And thank you to all those
52:42.1
who watched today's podcast.
52:44.5
God bless and have a good day,
52:52.0
Thank you so much for that.
52:54.4
dahil sa times on differences,
52:56.2
things are a bit tricky
52:57.7
kasi yung usually
53:00.3
evening time natin
53:01.3
will be like 5 a.m. here.
53:03.0
But I'll try to do that
53:04.4
Senator Trillianas
53:10.3
because baka naman
53:11.5
mahatak ko pa yung kasama natin
53:13.8
if we're possible
53:15.5
kung hindi siya masyadong pagod.
53:16.9
So thank you so much again
53:17.9
for following us.
53:20.3
I can see in the comments
53:21.9
focus pa rin sa Tulfos,
53:25.5
But you are forgetting
53:26.8
a very important part
53:27.8
of our discussion
53:28.5
which is the second survey
53:30.0
where it shows that
53:35.9
and a very small part
53:37.5
is hewing towards
53:39.8
which only means that
53:41.4
there's a huge, huge room
53:42.7
for a third force
53:43.9
if we get our act together.
53:45.9
At ito yung parating
53:48.4
Look at the glass
53:53.5
and open to other possibilities.
53:55.3
Hindi lang yung glass
54:00.6
I still have to research
54:05.5
Siguro ito yung mga
54:06.3
Ilocanos na nasa Mindanao
54:09.9
thank you very much.
54:10.9
and talk to you soon.
