00:20.0
new EDCA basis, additional
00:22.0
EDCA basis to proceed,
00:24.7
just don't stop us
00:26.4
from getting the gas
00:28.0
in Reitbank. If you
00:30.0
don't want us to go close
00:32.1
to get closer to the US,
00:34.3
don't stop us from getting
00:35.9
what belongs to us.
00:39.1
I think all that we're doing now is trying
00:43.0
increase our leverage,
00:45.7
to build up our leverage and tell
00:47.9
China, what you're
00:49.9
doing is forcing us to go to
00:52.1
get closer to the Americans
00:53.9
because we need desperately the gas.
00:56.4
It will be terrible for our economy
00:58.0
if we have to import LNG.
01:01.5
the Malampay supplies, 40%
01:03.9
of the energy requirement of Luzon.
01:06.2
And if we have to import that,
01:08.0
can you just imagine, I'm
01:15.7
power rates would
01:18.0
go up tremendously.
01:21.8
all the foreign investors will leave the country
01:25.8
a very large component
01:30.1
especially if you're in manufacturing.
01:31.7
They will all leave.
01:33.7
And even our domestic players,
01:35.5
they cannot compete
01:36.7
if their power cost
01:41.2
So, we have to send a message
01:44.1
that we have to get that gas.
01:45.7
If you don't want
01:46.4
the Americans to put up
01:50.0
additional at the sites,
01:52.1
yes, we can stop that, but you have
01:54.0
to give us our gas.
01:56.6
Right? We are just developed,
01:58.0
we're developing a leverage now, and I think
02:00.0
we still have to develop more leverage.
02:03.2
Leverage in terms
02:04.0
of telling the Chinese that
02:05.9
we have our options
02:10.0
giving gas assets in EDCA, etc.
02:18.0
also a leverage with respect to
02:20.0
the Americans. We will tell the Americans,
02:22.3
you have to accompany us
02:24.2
when we go to RID Bank to survey
02:26.0
and drill, just like what you did for
02:28.0
Asia and Indonesia.
02:31.6
it's a dual purpose.
02:34.7
to tell China, if you don't want these
02:37.8
EDCA sites, okay, but give us
02:39.9
our gas. Don't prevent us.
02:43.1
And for the Americans,
02:44.7
we're giving you these
02:45.7
EDCA sites, additional EDCA sites, but
02:49.9
joint patrol with us. Do a joint
02:51.8
patrol with us when we go to
02:53.6
RID Bank. Because
02:54.7
we are really late. It takes about four years,
02:58.0
five years, to develop RID Bank.
02:59.6
And we don't have the gas.
03:02.2
We have three large
03:03.7
gas-fired plants in Luzon.
03:05.7
All of them are supplied with gas
03:07.6
from Malampaya. But now
03:09.9
only two can be supplied.
03:11.8
And at the end of this year, only one can be
03:13.8
supplied. That means we will have to import LNG
03:17.0
gas-fired plants.
03:19.8
And it's very expensive.
03:23.6
that's the way I look
03:25.9
at it. We have to build up
03:30.0
And it's a dual purpose.
03:34.2
where your contention comes in.
03:36.0
Yung dahilan na si Marcos Jr.
03:38.0
ay nag-pivot dun sa
03:39.6
issue or recalibration in West Philippines
03:41.6
is really because he realized China
03:43.7
is not going to budge on the RID Bank
03:45.3
issue. Can you just imagine
03:49.7
the gas in RID Bank, we have to import
03:51.7
LNG, he will become very
03:53.6
unpopular because inflation
03:55.4
will go up. People now
04:01.4
drop in his ratings. It's
04:03.4
because of inflation. Prices
04:05.5
of goods are so high.
04:07.7
And you can just imagine if we
04:09.4
have to import all our,
04:13.4
gas from Malampaya and import all our
04:15.4
LNG, inflation will
04:17.4
go through the roof. He will become very
04:19.4
unpopular. So, it's a matter of
04:21.3
political survival for his family
04:23.4
that we should get
04:25.5
the gas in RID Bank. And the only,
04:27.5
the only country that can provide us
04:29.3
with a military cover,
04:33.0
the U.S. That's what happened
04:35.2
in Malaysia. Malaysia
04:36.7
got the cover from both
04:39.3
the Americans and the Australian warships.
04:41.6
Indonesia got the cover from the U.S.
04:47.0
I think that's an important thing to mention as we
04:49.3
go towards the final
04:51.1
part of our discussion.
04:53.1
Isang oras na, bilisan naman as always.
04:55.2
And I don't want to keep you too much
04:58.6
So, your contention is that
05:02.8
Malaysia, Indonesia, and to a certain
05:05.0
degree, even Vietnam are not having as much
05:06.8
problem is because in their
05:09.0
own time, a lot of that during
05:11.0
Duterte time, they held their ground, right?
05:13.2
Whether this is the West Capella Petronas
05:15.2
unilateral drill by
05:16.8
Malaysia from 2019 until
05:18.7
2020, 2021. Whether this is
05:21.2
Indonesian President Jokowi going to
05:22.8
North Natuna Sea and drawing the line and saying
05:24.7
there will be no compromise. Or,
05:26.4
they are not going to be able to
05:27.8
get back to Vietnam and their thousand years of
05:29.7
struggle against China.
05:30.2
So, it looks like our reading here is that the
05:33.2
reason why China is so bullying us right now is
05:36.9
because they feel they can impose their will on us
05:40.5
in ways that they cannot on our neighbors.
05:43.3
Kaya with our neighbors, they're eventually accepting
05:45.3
a kind of a fragile status quo and investing in
05:47.9
those countries. At tanggap nila hindi naman
05:49.9
push over sa mga yan. So, maybe they think we are
05:53.1
pushovers because of the era.
05:56.2
Because during the time of Duterte, Duterte was
05:58.7
subservient, obsequiously subservient to China.
06:02.7
He said, I love President Jinping. He doesn't want to displease.
06:06.1
He barred our Navy from patrolling the East.
06:09.9
So, China got used to that.
06:13.1
And China wants that to be the status quo.
06:15.8
That's the status quo that Harry Roque is saying.
06:19.9
We don't want that kind of status quo.
06:22.1
So, now that we are assertive about the status quo,
06:26.1
we are diverting our sovereign rights.
06:28.6
China is, of course, reacting.
06:30.6
But we cannot be the odd man out here.
06:34.6
Everybody gets their gas except us.
06:37.1
Because we are stupid.
06:39.1
We knelt before China.
06:42.1
Duterte said, I love President Xi Jinping.
06:45.6
How can you say that when President Xi Jinping says
06:48.6
you cannot get your gas?
06:51.6
How can he still love President Xi Jinping?
06:54.6
So, we have to correct that.
06:57.6
And President Marcos Junior,
07:01.6
his political survival depends on that also.
07:05.6
So, he has no choice really.
07:09.6
Therefore, we don't want to give him also too much of a credit, right?
07:14.6
Because this is also a question of Marcos looking for its own interest,
07:17.6
knowing what's in store.
07:20.6
Just for the last part here,
07:24.6
would it be enough,
07:26.6
joint patrols with the United States?
07:28.6
I mean, to what degree do you think the Chinese will...
07:30.6
I mean, here in Ayungin Shoal,
07:32.6
because the situation is getting more and more complicated, right?
07:34.6
It has become lethal, almost.
07:36.6
I mean, people could get killed
07:38.6
with the water pressure they're using.
07:40.6
If that happens, you'll be killed, right?
07:42.6
If not directly, even,
07:44.6
like the punching power of 10 Pacquiao.
07:46.6
So, we are already in this very serious situation here
07:50.6
where China is really tightening the noose.
07:52.6
Is joint patrols,
07:53.6
is joint patrols going to do it?
07:55.6
I mean, shouldn't there be something more drastic, aggressive?
08:00.6
I mean, I don't know.
08:01.6
Like, while the Philippines is doing resupply,
08:03.6
should there be American warships just over the horizon or drones?
08:07.6
I mean, what are we looking at here realistically?
08:11.6
Well, we have to prioritize.
08:15.6
I think in joint patrol in Rigbank,
08:18.6
there's no question that it's totally underwater,
08:23.6
you don't see anything.
08:24.6
So, we should prioritize that.
08:27.6
We have joint patrol.
08:28.6
The U.S. has offered to have joint patrol there
08:31.6
and many countries has offered...
08:33.6
have offered to have joint patrol and they will
08:35.6
because they did that for Malaysia and Indonesia
08:38.6
with whom they don't even have a mutual defense treaty.
08:42.6
a UNHCR is special because it's low tide
08:46.6
and very near mischief reef
08:54.6
you know, it's a matter of pride for ourselves
08:56.6
that we should be able to resupply our own.
09:00.6
It should be the last resort.
09:02.6
We should do everything
09:04.6
to do it on our own
09:05.6
before we ask the U.S. to jointly patrol
09:09.6
at the time we deliver the supplies.
09:11.6
I think we're not yet there.
09:16.6
we can still deliver
09:17.6
although we get hit.
09:20.6
But I think priority is to get the gas
09:22.6
and then we can talk...
09:24.6
sit down with Americans.
09:25.6
I like that statement of
09:27.6
the U.S. Admiral before the
09:29.6
U.S. Congress that
09:31.6
the use of water cannon...
09:32.6
Yeah, John Aquilino.
09:34.6
If somebody dies,
09:36.6
Coast Guard personnel dies
09:38.6
because of a water cannon,
09:41.6
we can invoke the treaty.
09:42.6
Let's magnify that.
09:44.6
Let's put that as a...
09:49.6
of what is an armed attack.
09:54.6
so that it sends a message to China.
09:56.6
You cannot do that
09:57.6
because we will invoke already.
09:59.6
Because China doesn't want us
10:00.6
to invoke the treaty
10:01.6
because if the U.S. goes there,
10:03.6
they really cannot do anything.
10:08.6
They have about 450 nuclear weapons.
10:11.6
The U.S. has 5,500.
10:13.6
They will be buried.
10:15.6
They cannot afford to go
10:17.6
to an all-out war.
10:20.6
is just to intimidate us.
10:24.6
the Americans are...
10:28.6
they counter-question,
10:30.6
the Americans are also willing
10:31.6
to push the envelope
10:34.6
The Americans did it for Malaysia,
10:36.6
And the credibility of the U.S.
10:37.6
is at stake here.
10:39.6
every time they're here
10:42.6
that the MDT military
10:44.6
applies to the West Philippine Sea,
10:46.6
including the Coast Guard.
10:49.6
they're really trying
10:53.6
because they really
10:55.6
in Scarborough Shoal.
10:58.6
Their knees wobbled
10:59.6
in Scarborough Shoal.
11:00.6
And during your time also,
11:03.6
They also didn't help us.
11:04.6
They also didn't help us.
11:08.6
now they're trying to recover
11:09.6
and we can take advantage
11:12.6
we're not going...
11:13.6
We don't want to go to war.
11:14.6
We just want to get
11:17.6
We don't want to go to war
11:20.6
We want to get our gas.
11:22.6
And that's our right.
11:24.6
That's our legal right
11:25.6
under international law.
11:28.6
the argument here is that
11:29.6
China doesn't want war.
11:30.6
The Philippines doesn't want war.
11:31.6
The U.S. doesn't want war.
11:32.6
But the fact and matter is that
11:33.6
if we don't fight our own fight,
11:35.6
then U.S. is not going to help us.
11:37.6
And if U.S. doesn't help us,
11:38.6
then China is not going
11:39.6
to respect us, right?
11:41.6
that's essentially
11:42.6
the logic here, right?
11:44.6
That's the bottom line.
11:46.6
China will help us
11:47.6
if we help ourselves.
11:49.6
We cannot tell the U.S.,
11:50.6
go get the gas for us.
11:53.6
We have to go there.
11:54.6
They will help us.
11:55.6
They will protect us.
11:56.6
But we have to do our part.
12:00.6
we have really to increase
12:01.6
our naval strength,
12:08.6
they really spend a lot
12:09.6
on their military.
12:11.6
their mutual defense partners
12:15.6
refusing to spend
12:16.6
and relying on them
12:22.6
they wouldn't want to help us.
12:25.6
especially if someone like,
12:28.6
to the White House.
12:29.6
I'm in South Carolina right now.
12:30.6
I'm sure a lot of people here
12:31.6
are excited for Trump 2.0.
12:35.6
what are we going to do
12:36.6
once Trump comes back?
12:38.6
these are some of the conversations
12:39.6
I'm going to have with folks
12:40.6
here in South Carolina
12:41.6
before heading to the Blue States
12:42.6
in the coming days.
12:45.6
the U.S. has been
12:47.6
before World War I.
12:49.6
And it can happen again.
12:54.6
we cannot take for granted
12:55.6
that U.S. will be there
12:57.6
that the Mutual Defense Treaty
13:00.6
We have to prepare
13:04.6
spending their resources
13:06.6
on defending areas
13:08.6
far beyond their shores.
13:11.6
we really have to prepare
13:20.6
what keeps you awake
13:24.6
of a presidential question?
13:26.6
that there could be,
13:30.6
which I agree with,
13:31.6
and even Deng Xiaoping,
13:32.6
the wiser Chinese leader,
13:34.6
intergenerational struggles.
13:35.6
But are you concerned
13:36.6
that there could be
13:37.6
some stupid mistake,
13:44.6
look like a hero?
13:46.6
are you worried about
13:47.6
the kind of an accidental
13:48.6
clashes and escalation
13:50.6
as President Marcos
13:52.6
in a recent interview
14:03.6
the consequences.
14:06.6
we don't want war.
14:07.6
China doesn't want war.
14:09.6
the entire strategy
14:12.6
the warfare strategies,
14:14.6
fire a single shot.
14:28.6
because militarily,
14:50.6
ourselves to be intimidated.
14:52.6
that has happened
14:53.6
in the last six years.
14:55.6
That's a very good point
14:57.6
shooting ourselves
14:59.6
or allowing ourselves
15:00.6
to be intimidated
15:03.6
of the pro-China vloggers
15:04.6
and disinformation campaign
15:05.6
in the Philippines
15:08.6
essentially to cower us
15:14.6
because there's always
15:17.6
as a peaceful country,
15:24.6
about that kind of
15:33.6
a country before.
15:34.6
Throughout history
15:35.6
they've been invading.
15:56.6
for a thousand years
16:00.6
Xinjiang literally
16:01.6
meets the frontier.
16:46.6
continental-sized
16:47.6
nation that didn't
16:48.6
come up peacefully.
16:51.6
warning states period
17:02.6
a sense of confidence
17:03.6
aside from the fact
17:06.6
one of the things
17:10.6
like for a moment
17:14.6
or at least a lot of
17:15.6
a sense of momentum
17:16.6
that we're moving
17:17.6
the right direction?
17:24.6
for joint patrols
17:28.6
visiting forces agreement
17:29.6
with other countries
17:30.6
and it's happening.
17:37.6
are also offering
17:44.6
that will help us
17:48.6
is really wartime
17:51.6
show your strength
17:56.6
I think we are in
17:57.6
the right direction
18:00.6
are you also happy
18:05.6
there's the disinformation
18:06.6
there's all of that
18:09.6
something good is happening
18:12.6
they're realizing
18:14.6
people are beginning
18:20.6
West Philippine City.
18:30.6
we just have to keep
18:34.6
thank you very much
18:36.6
former Justice Scorpio
18:37.6
Associate Justice Scorpio
18:39.6
at the Philippine Daily Inquirer
18:41.6
we can have more of you
18:42.6
and then of course
18:46.6
extensive discussion
18:48.6
The View from Manila
18:50.6
so watch out also for that
18:52.6
thank you so much
18:56.6
hindi kayo masawa sa amin
19:03.6
God bless you all
19:04.6
have a good day sir
