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natural resources? Can you exploit

the natural resources in the ease that it belongs

to you? So at the end of the day,

can we get the gas in Reitbank?

So

it's very easy for

we can send

the message to China that

if you

don't want this

new EDCA basis, additional

EDCA basis to proceed,

just don't stop us

from getting the gas

in Reitbank. If you

don't want us to go close

to get closer to the US,

don't stop us from getting

what belongs to us.

I mean,

I think all that we're doing now is trying

to

increase our leverage,

to build up our leverage and tell

China, what you're

doing is forcing us to go to

get closer to the Americans

because we need desperately the gas.

It will be terrible for our economy

if we have to import LNG.

We have, that's

the Malampay supplies, 40%

of the energy requirement of Luzon.

And if we have to import that,

can you just imagine, I'm

told by industry

players that

our

power rates would

go up tremendously.

It will be,

all the foreign investors will leave the country

because power is

a very large component

of

operating costs,

especially if you're in manufacturing.

They will all leave.

And even our domestic players,

they cannot compete

if their power cost

is so high.

So, we have to send a message

that we have to get that gas.

If you don't want

the Americans to put up

additional at the sites,

yes, we can stop that, but you have

to give us our gas.

Right? We are just developed,

we're developing a leverage now, and I think

we still have to develop more leverage.

Leverage in terms

of telling the Chinese that

we have our options

also in terms of

giving gas assets in EDCA, etc.

These EDCA sites

will

give us

also a leverage with respect to

the Americans. We will tell the Americans,

you have to accompany us

when we go to RID Bank to survey

and drill, just like what you did for

Asia and Indonesia.

So, then

it's a dual purpose.

We use this

to tell China, if you don't want these

EDCA sites, okay, but give us

our gas. Don't prevent us.

And for the Americans,

we're giving you these

EDCA sites, additional EDCA sites, but

provide a

joint patrol with us. Do a joint

patrol with us when we go to

RID Bank. Because

we are really late. It takes about four years,

five years, to develop RID Bank.

And we don't have the gas.

We have three large

gas-fired plants in Luzon.

All of them are supplied with gas

from Malampaya. But now

only two can be supplied.

And at the end of this year, only one can be

supplied. That means we will have to import LNG

for these

gas-fired plants.

And it's very expensive.

So,

that's the way I look

at it. We have to build up

our leverage.

And it's a dual purpose.

And that's

where your contention comes in.

Yung dahilan na si Marcos Jr.

ay nag-pivot dun sa

issue or recalibration in West Philippines

is really because he realized China

is not going to budge on the RID Bank

issue. Can you just imagine

if we do not get

the gas in RID Bank, we have to import

LNG, he will become very

unpopular because inflation

will go up. People now

are, he has

a two-digit

drop in his ratings. It's

because of inflation. Prices

of goods are so high.

And you can just imagine if we

have to import all our,

if we don't get

gas from Malampaya and import all our

LNG, inflation will

go through the roof. He will become very

unpopular. So, it's a matter of

political survival for his family

that we should get

the gas in RID Bank. And the only,

the only country that can provide us

with a military cover,

naval cover, is

the U.S. That's what happened

in Malaysia. Malaysia

got the cover from both

the Americans and the Australian warships.

Indonesia got the cover from the U.S.

I think that's an important thing to mention as we

go towards the final

part of our discussion.

Isang oras na, bilisan naman as always.

And I don't want to keep you too much

justice.

So, your contention is that

the reason why

Malaysia, Indonesia, and to a certain

degree, even Vietnam are not having as much

problem is because in their

own time, a lot of that during

Duterte time, they held their ground, right?

Whether this is the West Capella Petronas

unilateral drill by

Malaysia from 2019 until

2020, 2021. Whether this is

Indonesian President Jokowi going to

North Natuna Sea and drawing the line and saying

there will be no compromise. Or,

they are not going to be able to

get back to Vietnam and their thousand years of

struggle against China.

So, it looks like our reading here is that the

reason why China is so bullying us right now is

because they feel they can impose their will on us

in ways that they cannot on our neighbors.

Kaya with our neighbors, they're eventually accepting

a kind of a fragile status quo and investing in

those countries. At tanggap nila hindi naman

push over sa mga yan. So, maybe they think we are

pushovers because of the era.

That's correct.

Yeah.

That's correct.

Because during the time of Duterte, Duterte was

subservient, obsequiously subservient to China.

He said, I love President Jinping. He doesn't want to displease.

He barred our Navy from patrolling the East.

So, China got used to that.

And China wants that to be the status quo.

That's the status quo that Harry Roque is saying.

We don't want that kind of status quo.

So, now that we are assertive about the status quo,

we are diverting our sovereign rights.

China is, of course, reacting.

But we cannot be the odd man out here.

Everybody gets their gas except us.

Why?

Because we are stupid.

We knelt before China.

Duterte said, I love President Xi Jinping.

How can you say that when President Xi Jinping says

you cannot get your gas?

That's ours.

How can he still love President Xi Jinping?

Right.

So, we have to correct that.

And President Marcos Junior,

his political survival depends on that also.

So, he has no choice really.

Therefore, we don't want to give him also too much of a credit, right?

Because this is also a question of Marcos looking for its own interest,

knowing what's in store.

Just for the last part here,

would it be enough,

joint patrols with the United States?

I mean, to what degree do you think the Chinese will...

I mean, here in Ayungin Shoal,

because the situation is getting more and more complicated, right?

It has become lethal, almost.

I mean, people could get killed

with the water pressure they're using.

If that happens, you'll be killed, right?

If not directly, even,

like the punching power of 10 Pacquiao.

So, we are already in this very serious situation here

where China is really tightening the noose.

Is joint patrols,

is joint patrols going to do it?

I mean, shouldn't there be something more drastic, aggressive?

I mean, joint...

I mean, I don't know.

Like, while the Philippines is doing resupply,

should there be American warships just over the horizon or drones?

I mean, what are we looking at here realistically?

Well, we have to prioritize.

I think in joint patrol in Rigbank,

there's no question that it's totally underwater,

even at high...

a low tide,

you don't see anything.

So, we should prioritize that.

We have joint patrol.

The U.S. has offered to have joint patrol there

and many countries has offered...

have offered to have joint patrol and they will

because they did that for Malaysia and Indonesia

with whom they don't even have a mutual defense treaty.

Now,

a UNHCR is special because it's low tide

and very near mischief reef

and

the...

you know, it's a matter of pride for ourselves

that we should be able to resupply our own.

It should be the last resort.

We should do everything

to do it on our own

before we ask the U.S. to jointly patrol

at the time we deliver the supplies.

I think we're not yet there.

We can...

we can still deliver

although we get hit.

But I think priority is to get the gas

and then we can talk...

sit down with Americans.

I like that statement of

the U.S. Admiral before the

U.S. Congress that

the use of water cannon...

Yeah, John Aquilino.

Yes.

If somebody dies,

if

Coast Guard personnel dies

because of a water cannon,

then that is...

we can invoke the treaty.

Let's magnify that.

Let's put that as a...

as the

interpretation

of what is an armed attack.

Let's use that

so that it sends a message to China.

You cannot do that

because we will invoke already.

Because China doesn't want us

to invoke the treaty

because if the U.S. goes there,

they really cannot do anything.

I mean,

they have...

how many?

They have about 450 nuclear weapons.

The U.S. has 5,500.

They will be buried.

They know that.

They cannot afford to go

to an all-out war.

So,

their strategy

is just to intimidate us.

And you think

the Americans are...

Yeah.

But Justice,

of course,

they counter-question,

but do you think

the Americans are also willing

to push the envelope

on this issue?

Yes.

The Americans did it for Malaysia,

for Indonesia.

And the credibility of the U.S.

is at stake here.

And that's why

every time they're here

and official,

they repeat

that the MDT military

applies to the West Philippine Sea,

including the Coast Guard.

So,

they're really trying

to recover their

credibility

because they really

botched it

in Scarborough Shoal.

Yeah,

they wobbled.

Their knees wobbled

in Scarborough Shoal.

And during your time also,

right?

In Mischief.

They also didn't help us.

They also didn't help us.

Yeah.

So,

now they're trying to recover

and we can take advantage

of that.

But we know that

we're not going...

We don't want to go to war.

We just want to get

our oil and gas.

We don't want to go to war

with China.

That's crazy.

We want to get our gas.

And that's our right.

That's our legal right

under international law.

So,

essentially,

the argument here is that

China doesn't want war.

The Philippines doesn't want war.

The U.S. doesn't want war.

But the fact and matter is that

if we don't fight our own fight,

then U.S. is not going to help us.

And if U.S. doesn't help us,

then China is not going

to respect us, right?

I mean,

that's essentially

the logic here, right?

Yes.

That's the bottom line.

So,

China will help us

if we help ourselves.

We cannot tell the U.S.,

go get the gas for us.

No.

We have to go there.

They will help us.

They will protect us.

But we have to do our part.

And,

you know,

we have really to increase

our naval strength,

our air force,

our military.

Because

for them,

they really spend a lot

on their military.

And if they see

their mutual defense partners

refusing to spend

and relying on them

completely,

that's terrible.

I mean,

they will lose.

I mean,

they wouldn't want to help us.

Yeah.

I mean,

especially if someone like,

I don't know,

Trump comes back

to the White House.

I'm in South Carolina right now.

I'm sure a lot of people here

are excited for Trump 2.0.

So,

you know,

I'm wondering

what are we going to do

once Trump comes back?

And so,

these are some of the conversations

I'm going to have with folks

here in South Carolina

before heading to the Blue States

in the coming days.

You know,

Richard,

the U.S. has been

an isolationist

before World War I.

And it can happen again.

Exactly.

It happens.

Yeah.

I mean,

we cannot take for granted

that U.S. will be there

all the time,

that the Mutual Defense Treaty

will be there

all of the time.

We have to prepare

for the day

when the U.S.

may get fed up

spending their resources

on defending areas

far beyond their shores.

So,

we really have to prepare

for that day.

Just last point,

Justice Carpio.

What is,

what keeps you awake

late at night

at the moment

of a presidential question?

Do you fear

that there could be,

I mean,

obviously,

your contention,

which I agree with,

and even Deng Xiaoping,

the wiser Chinese leader,

said these are

intergenerational struggles.

But are you concerned

that there could be

some stupid mistake,

especially,

you know,

some smart guys

there in China

trying to

look like a hero?

I mean,

are you worried about

the kind of an accidental

clashes and escalation

accordingly,

as President Marcos

also mentioned

in a recent interview

with Bloomberg?

Well,

I think

the probability

of an accidental

skirmish

or war

is very low

because

everybody knows

the consequences.

The U.S.

doesn't,

we don't want war.

China doesn't want war.

In fact,

the entire strategy

of China,

the warfare strategies,

they will not

fire a single shot.

They will just

intimidate.

So,

everybody knows

that you cannot

cross that

because

everybody loses.

And the most,

and China

will lose more

because militarily,

they will,

they're far

behind the U.S.

still,

no?

So,

I don't lose

so much

sleep

over that.

But

I lose sleep

over the

possibility

that we will

miss the chance

to get the gas

in Reed Bank

because of fear.

Because we allow

ourselves to be intimidated.

Because

that has happened

in the last six years.

That's a very good point

of us

shooting ourselves

in the foot

or allowing ourselves

to be intimidated

because I think

a big part

of the pro-China vloggers

and disinformation campaign

in the Philippines

is to raise

the fear of war

essentially to cower us

into submission

which Duterte

did many times.

And I found it

interesting

because there's always

this discussion

of China

as a peaceful country,

harmonious,

charot-charot,

and war

immediately.

This is always

the weird part

about that kind of

narrative.

They keep

repeating

the Chinese

propaganda

which is a lie,

that China

never invaded

a country before.

Throughout history

they've been invading.

They tried

to invade

Japan twice

but failed.

They

invaded Korea.

A large chunk

of Korea.

They invaded

Tibet

and took over

Tibet.

They invaded

Xinjiang.

They invaded

Vietnam

several times

and Vietnam

for a thousand years

fought them

on and off.

I mean,

Xinjiang literally

meets the frontier.

In Nepal.

In Bhutan.

And they even

invaded

Southeast Asia.

They invaded

Java

during the

time of the

war.

This is the

U.N.

Of course

the Chinese

will say

these are the

Mongolians.

They invaded

the West

Philippine Sea.

They invaded

the Paracels.

They invaded

well,

of course

the

Vietnamese

fought them

for a thousand

years

on and off.

Yeah.

I mean,

I always say

to the people

do you think

that China

just dropped

kingdoms in

the Yellow River

and all and next

thing you know

it's a gigantic

continental-sized

nation that didn't

come up peacefully.

I think people

forget the

warning states period

and the whole

you know,

romance.

Now last

pinaka last

Justice Gary

what gives you

hope?

Is there

what gives you

a sense of confidence

aside from the fact

that

Although

one of the things

that keep us

awake at night

is the fear

like for a moment

what gives you

a lot of hope

or at least a lot of

a sense of momentum

that we're moving

the right direction?

Well,

we have

I have always

advocated

for joint patrols

and

we enlarge

our

visiting forces agreement

with other countries

and it's happening.

We're going to

have that with

Japan

UK

and

France

are also offering

we have to

have a network

of allies

not necessarily

mutual defense

but allies

that will help us

in peacetime

because

mutual defense

is really wartime

but in peacetime

you have to

show your strength

also

and

we're doing that

where

I think we are in

the right direction

and

Justice Scorpio

are you also happy

about you know

the direction of

in terms of

yes, I mean

there's the disinformation

there's all of that

but my thing is

because

something good is happening

right?

I think they're

they're realizing

that

people are beginning

to appreciate

and understand

how important

the stakes are

here in

West Philippine City.

Yes

I think

we

we're raising

the awareness

the

level of

understanding

of our people

we just have to keep

on talking

and explaining.

On that note

thank you very much

Justice Scorpio

former Justice Scorpio

Associate Justice Scorpio

Columnist

at the Philippine Daily Inquirer

I hope Justice

we can have more of you

and then of course

to plug it in

we also had

an even more

extensive discussion

on my show

The View from Manila

on One News

so watch out also for that

later this month

thank you so much

Justice Scorpio

mabuhay ka

and hopefully

hindi kayo masawa sa amin

yeah

anytime Richard

and thank you

for inviting me

and thank you

to our viewers

God bless you all

have a good day sir

bye

bye