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00:00.0
Ang araw at gabi, wherever you are in the world, thank you so much for joining us for this latest episode.
00:05.4
Of course, mayroon busy tayo this week. We had Justice Carpio a bit earlier and then of course we had the head of OCTA Research.
00:11.2
Andami mga bagay na pinag-usapan natin with our great guest.
00:14.2
Today we have with us again, former Senator Antonio Trillanes. Thank you very much, Senator, for joining us.
00:21.8
Thank you very much, David Chard, for inviting me again.
00:24.3
As always, I'm sure many people are looking forward to the conversation we're going to have kasi medyo wide-ranging ang discussions natin.
00:33.5
And of course, more important than that, medyo very forthright and straight to the point tayo.
00:39.4
First of all, pag-usapan natin itong Gentleman's Agreement.
00:42.1
So I had earlier the discussion with Justice Carpio and others on this.
00:45.4
Ano ba ito? Katraidoran ba ito? Ano ba nangyari?
00:47.8
What is your understanding of Gentleman's Agreement and why one spokesman of Duterte will say this,
00:52.8
the other spokesman of Duterte will say that?
00:54.3
Dami mga contradictory statements coming out.
00:57.2
Sinapaniwala natin China or si Panelo or si Harry Roque? What's going on there?
01:03.6
Well, una-una, yung Gentleman's Agreement as they describe it, I think it's one form of diplomatic engagement.
01:14.6
So ito kasi between heads of state.
01:18.2
So there's nothing wrong with that per se.
01:21.1
Except dapat kung ikaw head of state ka.
01:24.3
In this case, si Duterte.
01:26.7
Dapat tinutulak mo at pinoproteksyonan mo yung interest ng bansa mo.
01:31.6
But the details of that agreement as articulated by Harry Roque,
01:38.3
elapsided yun against the interest of the country.
01:42.0
Kasi nga, di ba, pag pinagbabawalan mo yung repair ng barko natin,
01:48.1
edi masisira yun.
01:49.3
Remember, commissioned ship pa siya.
01:54.3
Walang pwedeng pumigil sa atin sa pag-repair ng barko natin
02:00.4
which is technically commissioned vessel of the Philippine Navy pa rin.
02:05.9
So yun, yun ang naging problema dyan.
02:09.2
Now, kung sino papaniwalaan, I believe based on the sequence of events,
02:16.6
naglabas yung China about the secret deal with the Duterte administration,
02:21.9
tapos sinabi rin nung DRA,
02:24.3
FAA, na yun daw ang sinasabi na lumalabas,
02:27.9
the deal with the Duterte administration.
02:29.6
Then lumabas si Harry Roque,
02:32.2
dinitalyan niya kung ano yung mga,
02:37.4
kung ano nilalaman yung secret deal na yun.
02:41.2
So in this case, yun na, nabuo na yung storya.
02:44.4
Ngayon itong belated appearance ni Panelo,
02:48.3
ano to, crisis management na ito,
02:50.2
PR crisis management.
02:54.3
extract that or strike that out from the public discourse yung kay Panelo.
03:02.5
At itong kay Duterte,
03:06.4
diba dapat siya naman yung magsasalita dyan.
03:09.7
Ngayon titignan natin,
03:11.9
ano ba, is it really parang unbelievable
03:18.2
or out of character for Mr. Duterte to make such a gentleman's agreement,
03:24.3
say that, against the interest of the country?
03:27.1
No, I don't think so.
03:28.7
Dahil nakita naman natin,
03:31.5
all six years ni Duterte talagang sinasabi niya,
03:35.8
ang mga sinasabi niya na statements publicly are really favoring China.
03:42.9
Sinasabi niya na nasasama siya sa ideological flow ng China.
03:49.1
Yeah, ideological flow, yeah.
03:50.4
Oh yeah, then sabi niya gawin nalang,
03:53.6
yung probinsya ng China, yung Pilipinas, diba?
04:00.1
dinidefend niya si Xi Jinping,
04:02.0
mahal na mahal daw niya,
04:03.5
tinitira niya yung Western powers.
04:05.1
So consistent itong nilabas na detalya ni Harry Roque
04:09.5
doon sa mga previous public pronouncements ni Duterte
04:13.4
na talagang parang ano siya eh,
04:16.0
vassal state ng China.
04:19.6
Kaya yun ang pinakang problema dito.
04:23.6
Now, as it is, as articulated, talagang katraiduran yun
04:30.1
in the sense na hindi niya pinaglaban yung interest ng Pilipinas.
04:35.1
Ano, kung hindi, binigay pa niya, no?
04:38.1
At binigyan niya ng bas-bas ng presidente ng Pilipinas.
04:43.1
Now, how different is that with the 2012 back-channel talks nung panahon ni Pinoy?
04:49.5
So yung circumstances kasi nun.
04:51.5
Yung circumstances nun,
04:53.5
talagang yung status ko was different.
04:57.8
April 8, nagkaroon ng stand-off,
05:01.1
nag-swarm yung mga Chinese vessels,
05:03.8
numbering almost a hundred.
05:05.8
We had three Philippine vessels there.
05:07.8
Mainit na mainit yung tension nun
05:09.8
to the point na muntit na magkaputukan.
05:12.8
So when I was appointed as the back-channel negotiator a month after,
05:18.8
talagang ano na, mainit na yung tension.
05:22.8
And the mission was to de-escalate the situation.
05:26.1
Kung baga as it is, dun sa status ko at that time,
05:30.1
dehado tayo kasi they were swarming inside and outside the Scarborough Shoal.
05:36.1
Tapos sa atin, tatlo lang yung vessels natin.
05:39.1
Tapos mainit yung tension.
05:41.1
So the mission was to de-escalate the tension
05:43.1
and to reduce the number of ships dun sa Scarborough Shoal.
05:48.1
And through the three-month...
05:52.8
...at least natin, almost all, except for the three na nasa labas ng Shoal.
06:01.8
Maliwanag yan, wala tayong binigay, even an inch of our territory.
06:07.8
Maliwanag din na wala pa silang reclamation dyan sa Scarborough.
06:12.8
At ano pa rin, kung baga, wala sila doon.
06:18.8
Walang Chinese vessels inside the Shoal.
06:21.8
So nagawa yung mission.
06:23.8
Now, I think ito yung mistake ng China.
06:28.8
They thought by leaving the three ships there,
06:32.8
parang they would be flexing their masses na tipong,
06:37.8
hindi nyo pa rin kami totally kasi may naiiwan dito kahit umalis sila.
06:42.8
Umalis sila eh. At the end of the day, kung sa'yo nga yan, ba't kayo umalis?
06:46.8
It's because of the negotiations.
06:48.8
Pero nung hindi sila umalis si Pinoy, finailan sila ng arbitration case, which we won.
06:58.8
And because of that victory, perpetually negated na sa international community yung kanilang nine-dash line.
07:08.8
So every time they will raise it up, meron na pang-contra noon na may official decision na yung arbitral tribunal.
07:17.8
So I believe yun yung mistake nila.
07:21.8
Because kung inalis nila yung tatlo na yun, eh dapat hindi magpa-file si Pinoy kasi bumalik sa status quo.
07:29.8
And that's the result of the backchannel negotiations.
07:33.8
Kumbaga, diplomatic approach pero nilaban natin yung interest.
07:38.8
Now, let me just point out Richard yung difference between the negotiations then and the negotiations now.
07:45.8
Back then, we were dealing with President Hu Jintao back in 2012.
07:53.8
Now, they're dealing with President Xi Jinping.
07:56.8
Now, there is a difference in terms of foreign policy nung time na yun at nung time ngayon.
08:03.8
Nung time na yun, hindi pa sila aggressive in expanding.
08:11.8
Yung Hu Jintao administration was based on foreign policy.
08:13.8
Yung Hu Jintao administration was based on foreign policy.
08:14.8
And that was basically an extension of the Deng Xiaoping economic approach.
08:24.8
Peaceful rise, peaceful development, all of that.
08:27.8
Peaceful rise, yeah, and economic domination.
08:33.8
Pero nagbago yun.
08:35.8
Kasi nga si Jinping na yung nag-approach.
08:38.8
So that's, ano...
08:39.8
Nagtataka pa sila, bakit, ano,
08:47.0
noong 2012 sa negotiations
08:53.3
Yan yung nakita natin na
08:54.7
isang ano noon. Tapos
08:56.6
ang critical element dito
08:58.7
doon sa mga panahon na yun
09:07.1
nagko-coincide doon sa
09:08.6
transition of power
09:12.9
and sa China. Sa US
09:15.0
nagkakaroon sila election noon
09:19.0
eventually won. Pero noong
09:20.9
2012 then November
09:25.7
at papalitan na si
09:30.7
and may mga pumapalit noon
09:32.8
may mga pumupustura noon
09:34.2
yung grupo nila Bosilay
09:44.7
Xi Jinping. So noong time
09:48.0
na yun, ang attitude din
09:54.4
Hindi pa sila ano eh.
09:55.5
Hindi pa solid yung
09:58.0
kanilang transition
10:00.2
of power. Very fluid pa.
10:03.1
ganun yung circumstances noon.
10:05.7
Kaya dapat maintindihan natin
10:08.5
nagbabago yung context
10:11.1
niyan through time.
10:13.3
Depende doon sa mga nangyayari
10:15.3
noong mga panahon na yun.
10:17.9
So just to be clear
10:19.5
about this, Senator Trillianes,
10:21.5
what you're saying here is that
10:23.3
while there is a point to diplomacy
10:25.7
and you have to be clear about your red lines,
10:27.7
it's also important to keep in mind
10:29.2
sinong kausap mo, anong willingness,
10:31.5
openness sila to any kind of
10:33.4
compromise. And of course, as you correctly pointed out,
10:35.7
by December 2013,
10:37.8
shortly, literally
10:39.3
six, seven months after Xi Jinping,
10:41.1
solidates power, that's where nagsimula yung reclamation.
10:44.3
And within a few years,
10:45.5
you have the militarization and now what I call
10:47.5
militiaization, deployment
10:49.1
itong mga armada nila. So what you're arguing
10:51.5
is that back then, because you were
10:53.5
dealing with a much more, I would say, moderate
10:57.4
on a less, let's say,
10:59.2
dictatorial regime,
11:01.3
you felt that there is a sound basis
11:03.6
to try to diffuse
11:05.3
a naval standoff. Very serious
11:07.5
situation back then. While you're arguing
11:09.5
that sa panonidigong, medyo,
11:11.1
medyo mas mahirap kausap
11:13.3
itong China neto. So
11:14.9
diplomacy is less about compromise, but more
11:17.3
about imposing their will on the Philippines.
11:19.6
Just to be clear about this,
11:24.5
in the Department of Foreign Affairs,
11:27.5
it coincided with the so-called
11:29.2
at least three-nosed
11:33.3
which is no militarization
11:35.5
or reclamation sa Scarborough Shoal,
11:37.6
no unilateral development
11:40.2
West Philippines, sa ating
11:42.1
exclusive economic zone. And pangatlo sabi nila,
11:44.8
no forcible expulsion of our troops.
11:46.7
I'm just trying to be fair also to them, because this is
11:48.7
officially what Cayetano said.
11:50.7
But can you just clarify to us
11:52.6
why yung sinasabing status ko
11:59.3
inimical to our national interest
12:01.1
or contrary to our national interest as the DFA put it?
12:03.8
Can you explain to us the logistics
12:05.3
of that? If hindi natin
12:08.4
BRP Sierra Madre,
12:10.2
how is that against our national interest?
12:12.6
Para lang doon sa mga iba na mukhang hindi nila alam
12:14.3
yung logistical realities on the ground.
12:28.1
reefs na inoccupied.
12:31.5
kasama na dyan yung Ayungin.
12:34.2
Yung Ayungin through the
12:36.0
BRP Sierra Madre.
12:37.3
So yung status ko
12:40.2
sa pag-asa and other
12:42.6
outposts, walang problema
12:47.0
ipe-prevent mo yung pag-repair
12:50.2
BRP Sierra Madre,
12:53.1
detrimental to our interest yun.
12:55.2
Kasi nga, ano na siya eh.
12:57.2
Dilapidated na yung
13:00.9
At pagka hindi yan
13:08.0
ano na yan. Baka isang typhoon na
13:10.2
lang yan, it would be swept away.
13:12.7
Pagka nawala yan dyan,
13:17.9
yung Ayungin na yan to prevent
13:22.3
Ngayon, ilalagay lang natin yung
13:24.0
history niyan, bakit ba natin
13:25.8
sinadsad yan? Sinadsad natin
13:28.0
yan in response dun sa
13:31.8
ng mischief reef.
13:33.6
Mischief reef, una,
13:37.3
fisherman shelter.
13:41.7
eventually, nilagyan na nila
13:43.3
ng base. So, in response,
13:47.4
Arab administration, nagsadsad sila
13:49.7
ng BRP Sierra Madre.
13:51.4
I was still in the Navy then, kaya
13:55.6
ano nun, surrounding circumstances
13:57.5
nun. Maraming mga options
13:59.7
na nilatag nun for
14:03.9
dun sa ginawa nila sa mischief reef.
14:06.0
Pero ultimately, they ended up
14:07.7
with deliberately,
14:13.2
dito ang BRP Sierra Madre.
14:15.6
Pero ang nakita ko lang na bago nito,
14:18.5
noona yung rotation,
14:19.6
mga Navy, ano yan,
14:21.1
personnel lang nandiyan dyan,
14:22.9
may officer pa. So, yung maintenance
14:25.4
ng barko, ano yan eh,
14:28.7
Philippine Navy personnel.
14:31.2
Yung pagre-repair ng deck,
14:33.4
pag-maintain ng naval guns,
14:35.0
yung communications equipment, etc.
14:42.1
they decided, I don't know kung sinong
14:48.4
na they decided, palitan yung
14:51.2
ng mga Marine personnel.
14:54.0
Yung Marines, ano yan sila
14:58.0
sa digmaan, maasahan mo sila.
15:01.0
But they don't have
15:04.4
to maintain a Navy ship.
15:08.9
wala na, napabayaan na.
15:12.4
Navy pa lang yung nandod doon,
15:14.2
naka-assigned doon,
15:16.4
kahit nakasadsad siya,
15:18.7
they were operating as though
15:21.8
regularly commissioned Navy ship.
15:24.6
So, yung nire-repair, nire-repaint
15:27.9
kinakalawang, ano siya,
15:32.1
maintenance niya as the ships
15:34.0
na nandod doon sa Cavite Navy Base.
15:37.0
Pero nung tinanggal na,
15:38.0
ito na ngayon, na
15:39.2
dilapidated na talaga siya,
15:41.3
napapabayaan na siya.
15:42.7
Kaya, ang initial suggestion ko dyan,
15:45.7
mag-redeploy tayo
15:47.5
ng Navy personnel dyan,
15:49.9
yung mga bosom smith rating
15:51.7
na tinatawag namin,
15:52.8
those who are adept at maintaining
15:58.6
So, kaya nilang i-repair yan.
16:00.6
Would you believe, Richard,
16:02.4
pagka binalik mo yan sa Navy
16:05.1
logistical support,
16:07.5
they can bring that back,
16:10.7
almost original state.
16:14.7
kahit nandod doon sa gitnaan ng ayungin.
16:16.7
Kasi that's the maintenance
16:18.7
culture of the Philippine Navy.
16:20.7
Sir, to turn it around,
16:22.7
I really appreciate this, kasi parati
16:24.7
kong inisip, kasi nag, I give talks
16:26.7
doon sa iba-ibang branch ng AFP,
16:28.7
yung isang time sa mga Marines naman,
16:30.7
sabi niya, sir, actually kami yung
16:32.7
nagbabantay dyan, and then, oh nga no, sabi ko,
16:34.7
yeah, Marines. So I was wondering,
16:36.7
what is, ano yung kasaysayan na yung
16:38.7
Marines ay nandun, hindi yung
16:40.7
Philippine Navy. So thank you so much for explaining that.
16:42.7
Which I think is a perfect segue, no?
16:44.7
Because the next thing I want to talk about is
16:46.7
itong quadrilateral patrols.
16:48.7
Finally nangyayari yan. Of course,
16:52.7
ex-Duterte official na
16:54.7
senador ngayon na re-election is,
16:56.7
nagte-take credit dito sa
16:58.7
quadrilateral summit na yan. Kasi na-mention
17:00.7
daw niya last year. And I was saying, actually,
17:02.7
mini-mention namin lahat yan for six, seven
17:04.7
years, dahil lang sa dating
17:06.7
boss mo hindi nangyayari yan. So,
17:08.7
it has nothing to do with you. But anyway,
17:10.7
putting aside itong mga antics ng mga ex-Duterte
17:12.7
official, now, suddenly, matapang
17:14.7
na sa West Philippine Sea.
17:16.7
Anong ambag ng itong quadrilateral
17:20.7
And other things na inisip natin? Because,
17:22.7
Senator Gen. I said, let me be
17:24.7
very honest about this. I'm a little bit
17:28.7
patronizing tone coming from some of the American
17:30.7
experts and officials na,
17:32.7
tulungan natin mga Pilipino, kailangan nila
17:34.7
ng joint patrols, mga gano'n. Like,
17:36.7
I see the point of stronger military
17:38.7
cooperation and all. Pero katulad
17:40.7
ng sinabi niyo kanina, kayang-kayang naman natin
17:42.7
gawin yan. We can fortify this on our own.
17:46.7
Mas malalaki tayong mga barko, di ba?
17:48.7
We haven't used the best of the best
17:52.7
Logistically, what is your suggestion
17:54.7
here? Should the Philippines also do
17:56.7
joint resupply with the US?
17:58.7
Should the Americans have drones in the
18:00.7
area all the time? Or
18:02.7
corvettes or frigates?
18:04.7
How can our allies be more useful? And how can
18:06.7
we make sure China doesn't harass us
18:08.7
the way they have done? Kasi ang tanong ko rin
18:10.7
dito sa inyo, Sen. Trillians,
18:12.7
is that for a long time,
18:14.7
from the time you did your own backdoor
18:16.7
negotiations with China to this gentleman's
18:18.7
agreement, etc., under Digong,
18:20.7
China has not fired a shot.
18:22.7
I mean, as far as guns
18:24.7
goes or cannons go. But
18:26.7
itong mga water canoning nila is
18:28.7
increasingly lethal. Kaya ang suggestion ko nga, sabi ko
18:30.7
ito sa gobyerno, i-compare nyo
18:32.7
yung punching power ni Mike Tyson
18:34.7
dun sa water cannon. So people really
18:36.7
realize, lethal ito. It's
18:38.7
almost lethal. So, what are the options
18:40.7
we have? What is the best way for us to assert
18:42.7
our rights there without being harassed
18:44.7
or do it best? And at the same time, make
18:46.7
sure we get help from our allies.
18:50.7
Marami, no? Maraming
18:52.7
pwedeng gawin. Pero kasi
18:54.7
intindihan natin, kung
18:56.7
ang objective ng Marcos administration
19:00.7
international attention, kasi
19:02.7
talagang if you charter
19:04.7
a wooden ship, talagang
19:06.7
magbubugin siya na that way.
19:08.7
But, kung gusto mo
19:12.7
ipapadala mo yung white ships mo,
19:14.7
yung Coast Guard vessels mo na
19:16.7
medyo malaki-laki, e kaya
19:18.7
naman i-withstand yung
19:20.7
water cannons na yun. Kasi they were
19:22.7
designed actually to
19:24.7
withstand mga typhoons.
19:26.7
Diba? Eh yun lang water
19:28.7
cannon, kaya yun. Ngayon,
19:30.7
another way is pwede
19:32.7
kayong makipagbombahan
19:34.7
ng water cannon doon. Diba?
19:36.7
Meron din yung Coast Guard. Which is
19:38.7
what the Japanese Coast Guard
19:42.7
Senkaku standoff. Pero para
19:44.7
na kayong mga batang nagwa-water gun
19:48.7
Ano yun eh? There's
19:50.7
nothing to be achieved there.
19:52.7
Kaya nga, depende yun sa focus
19:56.7
Marcos administration. If
19:58.7
it's to draw international
20:00.7
attention kung papano nang bubuli
20:02.7
yung China, well, they were able
20:04.7
to achieve it. Diba? They were able
20:06.7
to achieve that. Kasi kung Coast Guard
20:08.7
vessel dadalhin mo dyan,
20:10.7
kahit na ano yan eh, ano yun eh,
20:12.7
kayang-kaya yun, barko.
20:14.7
So hindi kagano makaka-gain
20:18.7
Diba? Pero dahil doon,
20:22.7
if it's really by design,
20:24.7
itong ngayon nakadraw ka ng mga
20:26.7
international coalition
20:32.7
us, then itong namensyo mo na
20:36.7
Ito naman, parang ano lang ito eh.
20:42.7
idea na we're not alone
20:44.7
in this. Diba? Pwede yan yung
20:46.7
freedom of navigation patrols
20:50.7
malayo yan ah yung pinaggawa
20:52.7
ng, pinagpatrolya nung
20:54.7
quad doon sa Ayungin.
21:08.7
pwede mong gawin yan, pero kailangan
21:10.7
kakalculate mo din
21:12.7
ano ba yung magiging response nila.
21:14.7
So pataasan ng pataas yan.
21:16.7
Escalate ng escalate yan.
21:18.7
So until magkakaroon ka ng standoff,
21:20.7
then doon ka ngayon.
21:22.7
Babalik ka doon sa situation doon sa
21:26.7
Depende na yun sa kausap.
21:32.7
top channel approach that worked in 2012
21:36.7
this time around because
21:40.7
foreign policy shift
21:44.7
Xi Jinping administration
21:48.7
open expansion na.
21:54.7
road state na sila.
22:02.7
kumbaga, they were trying to charm the whole world
22:04.7
with their economic might.
22:06.7
Pero ito hindi na.
22:08.7
Natipong, sige, we will
22:12.7
with you on this.
22:16.7
sinasabi natin, pwede.
22:18.7
Another approach is,
22:20.7
and I've been suggesting this,
22:22.7
pwede naman heliborne yung operations.
22:28.7
Kahit Coast Guard ship yan,
22:30.7
may heliborne capacity yan.
22:32.7
So, magdadala sila doon
22:34.7
10 minutes away. Ayungin,
22:36.7
they will drop the supplies.
22:40.7
eventually nga, pwede tayo maglagay ng
22:44.7
BRP Sierra Madre.
22:48.7
rotation, pwede rin
22:50.7
ganon through that.
22:52.7
So, pagka ganon kasi ginawa,
22:54.7
sino yung maharangan nila?
22:56.7
Hindi nila maharang yun.
22:58.7
If they do anything,
23:00.7
aggressive towards that
23:02.7
helicopter at mag-crush
23:06.7
Problem na nila yun.
23:08.7
Kasama sa mutual defense treaty yan.
23:10.7
Because very clear ang, at least Trump and Biden,
23:12.7
na any attack on our vessels,
23:14.7
aircrafts, and soldiers and personnel
23:16.7
will activate the mutual defense treaty.
23:20.7
Kaya nga nakita mo, as you
23:24.7
iniskirt nila yung
23:28.7
doon lang sa gray zone sila.
23:32.7
beyond the red line, magti-trigger
23:34.7
ng mutual defense treaty.
23:36.7
So, maraming ways to
23:42.7
pwede nilang gawin itong ginagawa nila.
23:44.7
Mag-charter kayo ng wooden ship.
23:46.7
Mukha kang underdog talaga. Pero,
23:48.7
itago mo yung mga tao mo para hindi sila
23:50.7
masasaktan. Diba?
23:52.7
Pero, gusto mo nang medyo sturdy
23:54.7
siya or all-weather ship,
23:56.7
yung Coast Guard. Meron silang ganyang
23:58.7
vessels that can withstand
24:00.7
typhoons. So, kayang-kayang nilang
24:02.7
water cannon. And they can proceed.
24:04.7
Just ignoring the
24:06.7
water cannons of China.
24:08.7
Or, they can do what
24:10.7
the Japanese did during the
24:12.7
Senkaku standoff. Magputukan
24:14.7
sila ng water cannon. Diba?
24:16.7
Or, they can do the
24:18.7
Heliborne approach.
24:20.7
So, these are just
24:22.7
some of the ways na pwedeng gawin
24:24.7
without escalating
24:28.7
directly involving the Americans.
24:30.7
Or directly involving the Americans. Kasi,
24:32.7
feeling ko, medyo ahead of time, medyo
24:34.7
advance mag-isip yung iba na,
24:36.7
eh, dapat yung kasama yung US sa resupply.
24:38.7
Ako kasi, ang concern ko dito is,
24:40.7
we don't want to come off as Tutan America
24:42.7
or masyadong dependent sa America.
24:44.7
Because I think we're very much capable of doing this on our own.
24:46.7
Tama po yung sinabi niya.
24:48.7
Medyo malalaki-laki na yung mga Coast Guard vessels
24:50.7
natin. Medyo matinun na rin yung ibang warships
24:52.7
natin. So, in fairness, kahit Pinoy
24:56.7
throughout the past decade, medyo nag-modernize
24:58.7
naman yung capabilities natin.
25:00.7
But siguro the US, do you think
25:02.7
they should still have an over-the-horizon
25:04.7
presence? Maybe just
25:06.7
frigates in the area or some drone
25:08.7
just in case to make the Chinese think twice.
25:10.7
I mean, they have been doing that anyway, but
25:12.7
even more explicit institutionalized.
25:16.7
They have been doing that and
25:18.7
you know why? Because ano sila,
25:20.7
stakeholders sila doon sa mutual defense treaty.
25:22.7
Kaya binabantayan nila yung
25:24.7
ating resupply missions.
25:26.7
Because they would be able
25:28.7
to know firsthand
25:30.7
kung kailangan nilang i-trigger yung
25:32.7
mutual defense treaty. And yun din
25:34.7
ang pinakang guard mo
25:36.7
against over-aggressiveness
25:40.7
To the point na may
25:42.7
masasaktan o mamamatay
25:44.7
na Navy personnel.
25:48.7
talk about this upcoming trilateral summit
25:50.7
because one of the things that
25:52.7
is expected to be signed
25:54.7
shortly after actually
25:56.7
the bilateral summit is a visiting forces
25:58.7
agreement style deal with Japan.
26:00.7
There's still some debate about ano talagang meron dyan.
26:02.7
Some say it's just a reciprocal access agreement.
26:04.7
Officially, that's gonna be the term,
26:06.7
not the visiting forces agreement. But
26:08.7
there is a, you know,
26:10.7
there are some people are saying na down the road
26:12.7
baka ang gusto ng Japan magkaroon din ng rotational
26:14.7
access sa some of the bases in the Philippines.
26:16.7
Now, we can have a long conversation whether
26:18.7
papasa yan sa KO party
26:20.7
given the constitutionalization in Japan.
26:22.7
But it looks that's the direction of the wind.
26:24.7
If China keeps on bullying us,
26:26.7
how do you feel about
26:28.7
A, etong Japan coming in potentially
26:30.7
having more direct cooperation with us.
26:32.7
They have done very well in terms of helping
26:34.7
us in our Coast Guard capability.
26:36.7
Fumio Kishida, Prime Minister of Japan here in the
26:38.7
US just recently said we wanna be a global
26:40.7
partner of the US. Ibig sabihin hindi lang robbing
26:42.7
to the Batman in Asia. But a
26:44.7
kind of a justice league, right?
26:46.7
We wanna be part of this kind of a
26:48.7
group of people helping. And then pagdating
26:50.7
sa US naman, I think
26:52.7
it's unavoidable to talk about this.
26:54.7
What do you think BBM should do
26:56.7
on the Taiwan question?
26:58.7
Because I think a big priority for Biden
27:00.7
would be to essentially get the
27:02.7
Philippines on board on any
27:04.7
Taiwan deterrence strategy.
27:06.7
And probably part of that would be
27:08.7
more American presence
27:10.7
in the northern bases natin, hindi lang kagaya ni Isabela,
27:12.7
maybe in Batanes.
27:14.7
What is your read on also the Taiwan
27:16.7
angle and also Japan coming in?
27:18.7
And of course Japan also has an interest in Taiwan.
27:20.7
So etong trilateral, big part
27:22.7
of that is also Taiwan as much as it is West
27:26.7
Well, as you correctly
27:28.7
observed, ano to eh,
27:30.7
this is mainly for deterrence.
27:34.7
the Philippines involvement
27:40.7
I think we are already there.
27:48.7
development mode,
27:52.7
by next year, fully operationalized
27:56.7
That's the deterrence or at least
27:58.7
it will help China
28:00.7
think twice or thrice
28:02.7
before crossing that
28:04.7
red line. Because there will be
28:08.7
upsurge in military operations
28:14.7
the Visiting Forces Agreement with Japan,
28:16.7
so it means as a partner
28:18.7
because we have to understand
28:28.7
surface assets of
28:32.7
So para lang mas masanay
28:34.7
kung magpapatrol dito,
28:38.7
protection sa kanilang mga troops
28:40.7
through this Visiting Forces Agreement.
28:42.7
And remember Japan,
28:48.7
coming out period niya ito
28:52.7
Japan Maritime Defense
28:54.7
Force lang sila, so internal lang sila.
28:56.7
So ngayon lang sila nag
29:00.7
Venture outside their
29:02.7
EEZ and territorial waters.
29:04.7
So kailangan nilang
29:06.7
ano rin, ma-train
29:08.7
yung kanilang mga
29:12.7
having joint operations
29:14.7
with other navies.
29:16.7
Para malaman nila yung mga
29:18.7
replenishment at sea,
29:20.7
iba't ibang evolutions na
29:26.7
operational capacity building.
29:30.7
kung ano yun, kailangan nila ng
29:36.7
Meron allied tactical procedures
29:38.7
yan. Yung mga flags,
29:40.7
yung mga symbols,
29:42.7
kailangan nilang gawin yan.
29:44.7
Although parang antiquated na yung
29:46.7
ganong approach but
29:54.7
yung inyong electronic
29:58.7
meron pa rin kayo ng
30:06.7
magbe-benefit yung Japan
30:08.7
dan at magbe-benefit din yung
30:10.7
Pilipinas dito. We're not being
30:14.7
war here. Ang ginagawa lang natin,
30:16.7
if somebody needs
30:18.7
help, historically yung Pilipinas
30:22.7
In the same vein, nung tayo
30:24.7
naman ang nilangan ng tulong,
30:26.7
tinulungan din naman tayo.
30:28.7
Eto lang, we just recently
30:32.7
Araw ng Kagitingan.
30:36.7
nung na-occupy na tayo ng
30:40.7
US actually had the
30:42.7
option to leapfrog
30:44.7
over the Philippines and go direct
30:52.7
through the commitment of
30:56.7
of General Douglas MacArthur na
30:58.7
tipong, teka, kinumit natin
31:00.7
na palayaan yung mga Pilipino.
31:04.7
Along with Australians.
31:06.7
Along with Australians and
31:08.7
New Zealanders, etc. Basta
31:10.7
tinulungan tayo. And
31:12.7
ganun lang yun. That's how
31:18.7
parang ayaw mo conflict
31:20.7
avoidance ka. Therefore,
31:22.7
hindi ka sasama sa mga kahit na
31:24.7
anong-ano. Pero pagka ikaw na
31:26.7
nilangan ng tulong, paano
31:28.7
ka ngayon sasaklolo? Diba? So ganun lang
31:30.7
yun. And hopefully hindi tayo
31:32.7
darating doon precisely
31:34.7
pag nakita nung China na
31:36.7
teka, it's not going to be
31:38.7
a quick war that you
31:40.7
anticipate. It's going to be
31:50.7
A little bit specific,
31:52.7
I completely agree with you,
31:54.7
Senator, in the sense that hindi pwede
31:56.7
yung hihilang tayo. It's a give and take
31:58.7
relationship. Having
32:00.7
said that, maybe we have a slight divergence
32:02.7
of opinion here. Ako naman, ang
32:04.7
issue ko lang kasi dito is
32:06.7
I look at Jordan,
32:08.7
Egypt, Pakistan, never mind Israel
32:10.7
or Ukraine. All of these countries have
32:12.7
received direct aid
32:14.7
or significant amount
32:18.7
American weapon systems.
32:20.7
Egypt, for instance, or even Jordan,
32:22.7
they all have F-16 fighters.
32:26.7
I don't want to come out like
32:28.7
Mendicant or something like that, but
32:32.7
what should Marcos push for here?
32:34.7
Should he push for some...
32:36.7
Kasi wala pa tayong mga multi-role vessels.
32:38.7
Sorry, multi-role fighters.
32:40.7
And the warships that we have,
32:42.7
the modern one na napuntahan ko,
32:44.7
BRP Rizal, mga ganun,
32:46.7
some of the strategic weapon systems
32:48.7
we're getting are Indian. The BrahMos,
32:50.7
which has Russian derivative, Soviet derivative.
32:52.7
Ang tanong ko dito is
32:54.7
should BBM aggressively
32:56.7
push for Americans to
32:58.7
give us much better terms for
33:00.7
some of the things that we really need
33:02.7
para hindi lang tayo hanggang nagbibigay lang ng
33:04.7
basic access, hindi lang rentier relationship.
33:06.7
We should be also
33:08.7
a capable ally which can project power
33:10.7
and help in international
33:12.7
public goods provision, anti-piracy,
33:16.7
much we should focus on also getting Japan
33:18.7
and US to accelerate our AFP
33:20.7
modernization, which we discussed in the last
33:22.7
meeting, yung $36 billion
33:26.7
Well, I totally agree
33:28.7
with you, Richard, on that one.
33:30.7
Hindi naman pwedeng
33:32.7
masadong bargain.
33:36.7
kailangan din natin yung tulong.
33:38.7
Mutual itong tulungan natin.
33:42.7
kung gusto nyo mas makatulong kami ng
33:48.7
Kumag-i-upgrade nila yung ating
33:50.7
weapon systems. Alam mong problema lang kasi,
33:52.7
ito, one of the things
33:56.7
when I was dealing with
34:00.7
government officials in Washington
34:04.7
pagiging compromise nung panahon
34:08.7
na if you're interested
34:10.7
with military weapons,
34:12.7
US military weapons systems,
34:16.7
Kaya yun yung issue
34:20.7
mabigat kasi yung the countries
34:22.7
that you mentioned, may mga
34:24.7
nagkaroon sila ng access sa mga
34:26.7
US weapon systems
34:28.7
because they have already demonstrated na
34:32.7
safeguard mechanisms na hindi
34:34.7
basta-basta ma-compromise
34:36.7
yung mga military secrets sila.
34:40.7
nandoon na yun, pero
34:42.7
magkaka yung mga basic platforms,
34:46.7
mahasa lang yung mga
34:48.7
AFP personnel natin
34:50.7
doon sa mga more modern
34:52.7
weapon systems. Like,
34:54.7
sabi ko nga, kahit sa Navy,
34:56.7
yung mga dinicommission nila mga
34:58.7
Oliver Hazard Perry
35:00.7
class na frigates, ano yun,
35:02.7
pwedeng lagyan ng platforms
35:04.7
in the same way na binigay nila sa
35:06.7
Taiwan, di ba? I-modernize natin
35:08.7
ng konti. Oo. Taiwan yung
35:10.7
missile system, so wala nakocompromise na
35:12.7
sa weapon systems
35:14.7
nila. Pero, naano natin?
35:16.7
Nagkakaroon tayo ng
35:18.7
platform para to train
35:22.7
personnel. Yung mga ano rin,
35:24.7
yung sinasabing mga multi-role
35:28.7
para mahasa yung mga
35:30.7
piloto natin. Anyway, dito na
35:32.7
tayo yung mga Korean jet fighters.
35:34.7
Maganda yan, pero parang
35:36.7
entry level yan. Transitional talaga
35:38.7
eh. Tama. Entry level.
35:42.7
dito na tayo kung
35:44.7
medyo maganda-gandang
35:48.7
kahit papano, hindi naman
35:50.7
kawakawa yung mga piloto natin.
35:52.7
So, pwedeng i-demand yan
35:56.7
Marcos administration.
35:58.7
But I think, pinipace naman nila.
36:00.7
I think eventually they will get there.
36:04.7
remember, this situation
36:06.7
that we're in was
36:08.7
not planned from the start.
36:10.7
Noong pag-aupo ni
36:12.7
President Marcos. Kung hindi,
36:14.7
it was forced on him
36:16.7
by the circumstances because
36:18.7
ipinush away siya ng China
36:20.7
basically. Kaya, eto na ngayon.
36:22.7
They're doing things on the fly
36:24.7
but kahit papano,
36:26.7
nakakahabol and eventually
36:30.7
parity naman. Huwag naman niyong
36:32.7
tulungan niyo kami. Sabi nga dun sa
36:34.7
ano, di ba, help me,
36:36.7
help you. Kaya kay Tom Cruz
36:38.7
at siya kasi ano, Cuba.
36:40.7
Help me, help you.
36:44.7
That's one of my favorite expressions.
36:46.7
Kaya nga, you want the Philippines not to be
36:48.7
just taga-bigay ng basing agreement.
36:50.7
You want us to be able to also
36:52.7
project ourselves. Kasi we're increasingly
36:54.7
getting there. Just last one on this foreign policy
36:56.7
before we go to the meat of discussion.
36:58.7
More Duterte and ICC and
37:00.7
our favorite topics.
37:04.7
For me, kasi strategic
37:06.7
investments I think is also very important.
37:08.7
So, the other week na sa Germany kami,
37:10.7
na-meet namin si Chancellor Schultz.
37:12.7
He gathered some of the thought leaders from
37:14.7
Global South. Brazil, South Africa, etc.
37:16.7
And one of the things I said is,
37:18.7
naintindihan ko na meron kayong business interest.
37:20.7
When you go to a country, Benz,
37:22.7
BMW, whatever, you're looking at investment
37:24.7
environment. But at the end of the day,
37:26.7
parang talent scouting yan.
37:28.7
Pag magaling kang talent scout,
37:30.7
hindi ka mag-invest lang dun sa mga players na
37:32.7
mature na agad. May mga
37:34.7
players na medyo may mga kulang here and there.
37:36.7
But you see a long-term
37:38.7
vision. There are long-term
37:40.7
talents. So mag-invest ka dun. And I said
37:42.7
Philippines is kinda like that in a sense that
37:44.7
may mga kulang tayo in terms
37:46.7
of investment, environment and all. But
37:48.7
you see, all the investments are going to Vietnam.
37:50.7
You think Vietnam is gonna side with
37:52.7
the West against China? No, they have their own
37:54.7
interest, right? They're putting
37:56.7
a lot of investment in Malaysia, whose
37:58.7
leader, Anwar Ibrahim, is like the new Duterte
38:00.7
of ASEAN in terms of lawyering
38:02.7
for ASEAN. He was here in Berkeley few
38:04.7
months ago and saying, hindi ka makatulad ng
38:06.7
Pilipinas. May friendly
38:08.7
China is a friend. Don't be China-phobic.
38:10.7
Like, ito ang problema sa
38:12.7
West. They talk about shared values,
38:14.7
rules-based order, and then they put
38:16.7
all the money in countries that are
38:18.7
frankly, a lot of them are opportunistic if not
38:20.7
pro-China. Even India.
38:22.7
Aminin natin, India is, you know,
38:24.7
one day they get arms from Russia,
38:26.7
one day they're friendly with Biden.
38:28.7
Those are not reliable partners, to be honest
38:30.7
about it, if you wanna talk about rules-based order. So
38:32.7
para sa akin, mahalaga din na magkaroon ng
38:34.7
strategic investments in the Philippines. Kasi alam natin
38:36.7
sa United States, a lot of
38:38.7
the propaganda of the Makapili
38:40.7
Club, diba, is, pag China
38:42.7
tayo, magkakaroon tayo ng high-speed
38:44.7
railway investment. Obviously, nang hindi nangyari
38:46.7
sa panonidigong, but they'll blame
38:48.7
BBM for that. So I think it's important
38:50.7
na maibigay din ang mga
38:52.7
Amerikano and mga Japon. In fairness,
38:54.7
mga Japon naman, it's not like they haven't done much,
38:56.7
they have done a lot also in the Philippines. But
38:58.7
there has to be those kind of investments,
39:00.7
semiconductors, things that
39:02.7
make it easier for BBM to say, see,
39:04.7
dito na tayo tataya, hindi nga tayo
39:06.7
binubuli, tinutulungan pa tayo, bakit
39:08.7
tayo dun sa China, hihingi sila ng
39:10.7
kapalit. Wala naman libra sa China.
39:12.7
Whoever thinks with China, you talk
39:14.7
nice to them, you'll get everything, they don't know what they're
39:20.7
just to be fair to
39:22.7
this Marcos administration,
39:24.7
remember, nung six years ni
39:26.7
Duterte, he shooed away
39:30.7
from EU, US, lahat
39:32.7
because of the human rights
39:34.7
violations. Talagang nag-shut
39:38.7
ano natin, foreign direct investments.
39:40.7
Now, under the new administration,
39:42.7
inobserbahan nila eh.
39:44.7
Ano ba to? Is this the continuation
39:46.7
of the Duterte administration?
39:48.7
Nung nakikita nilang, uy, medyo
39:50.7
okay, medyo ano na.
39:52.7
So, last year, they
39:54.7
decided na tipong,
39:56.7
I think it's safe now.
39:58.7
Umaga, it's a green light.
40:00.7
Ngayon pa lang nila sinasabi yung
40:02.7
pwede kayong pumasok.
40:04.7
Yung mga, ano nila, mga ambassadors
40:06.7
nila dito, economic
40:08.7
counselors, nakikita nila na
40:10.7
medyo okay na yung Pilipinas.
40:14.7
last year lang, probably, the second half
40:16.7
of last year. Kaya, doon pa lang
40:18.7
nila hinihikayat. Doon
40:20.7
pa lang sila nag-send ng positive signals
40:26.7
negosyante. But then,
40:28.7
ito nga, inaantay pa rin nila. Tapos
40:30.7
isa pang signal yung kay Sen.
40:32.7
Laila de Lima, diba, tapos itong
40:34.7
potential itong ICC.
40:38.7
this would be parang
40:42.7
investors to come in. Pero
40:44.7
mga ano yan, a few years
40:46.7
down the road pa malalasap ng
40:48.7
Pilipinas yan. You have to really regain
40:50.7
their trust and confidence. I think this is very important.
40:52.7
The Duterte legacy, we keep on forgetting.
40:54.7
I mean, I had a EU
40:56.7
person coming to me saying
40:58.7
he was very shocked na one day
41:00.7
kausap nila yung people in finance,
41:02.7
hindi ko naman sabihin sino, pero medyo malalaking
41:04.7
tawad ng panahon ni Digong, and sabi nila
41:06.7
bahala kayo dyan, andyan naman yung
41:08.7
China eh. And they were like shocked
41:10.7
like how naive you are. Like
41:12.7
saan yung investment ng China? Purong pledge
41:14.7
lang, diba? Pledge drop. And
41:16.7
what, anong klaseng matinong
41:18.7
bansa mag-isip na dun lang tayo sa
41:20.7
isang bansa, diba? You will
41:22.7
have no leverage, right?
41:24.7
So, marami na shock including
41:26.7
Europeans with the amount of naivety
41:30.7
I'll be honest, stupidity of some of the
41:32.7
supposedly smart officials ng panahon
41:34.7
ng Digong. And they come to me and say, Richard,
41:36.7
sino to mga to? Akala namin mga technocrats
41:38.7
mga to. So, ewan ko dyan nga,
41:40.7
yung Department of Finance nga, binabash pa nga ako
41:42.7
dati, may mga press release pa sila.
41:44.7
It was that bad during
41:46.7
Digong na even the sound of
41:48.7
technocratic people were playing politics
41:50.7
talaga and DDS propaganda nonsense.
41:52.7
Now, to be honest...
41:56.7
mention this. Please.
42:00.7
sa secret deal, bakit ganoon
42:02.7
lopsided? Bakit bigay ng bigay
42:04.7
si Duterte? Ah, I see. Ang reason
42:06.7
is compromised siya.
42:12.7
the campaign, tapos
42:14.7
ito ang daming mga
42:16.7
big ticket projects na kumikita
42:22.7
yan yung pag reciprocate
42:24.7
nila. Kasi kumikita
42:26.7
sila eh. Compromised masyado yan
42:28.7
yung department officials na sinasabi
42:32.7
May have an idea who you are referring
42:34.7
to. Pero kasama yan dun sa
42:36.7
sindikato nila na nagpasok
42:38.7
nung China Telco.
42:42.7
binigay nila. They
42:44.7
twisted the arms of
42:46.7
local businessmen just
42:54.7
nakuha nila pati franchise,
42:56.7
pati yung access sa mga bases,
42:58.7
lahat-lahat. Yun, yun. Yun
43:00.7
ang reason kung bakit
43:04.7
yung kanilang foreign policy.
43:06.7
Because kumikita sila ng malaki.
43:08.7
Very good point. I mean I would
43:10.7
say even to be nice, I think the whole
43:12.7
shadow of Chinese investment
43:14.7
structured. Diba? Yung
43:16.7
tapang nila. Kasi hindi sayang baka
43:18.7
may investment. But of course you're implying
43:20.7
maybe it's not just that. Maybe it's a bit
43:22.7
more than that. But to be fair
43:24.7
to NEDA Secretary
43:26.7
Pernia, I think one reason he resigned.
43:28.7
Walang masyadong mga cabinet sa kanya.
43:30.7
I think it's because hindi talaga siya
43:32.7
natutuwa sa mga takbo ng mga bagay-
43:34.7
bagay sa ilan ng Duterte administration.
43:36.7
Quiet pa rin si Pernia.
43:38.7
I think he has a story to tell. Hopefully
43:40.7
one day. Diba? Malaman natin. Kasi alam niya yung
43:42.7
mga kalokohan ng China eh. Yung mga
43:44.7
investments. Kasi from what I understand,
43:46.7
ang dami mga pledges and then papunta
43:48.7
yung NEDA natin sa Beijing,
43:50.7
wala pala eh. Hanggang mana lang. Boka-boka
43:52.7
lang. So you wonder, ano ba yung
43:54.7
enticement talaga ng China? Is it really
43:56.7
big ticket investments or, well, something
44:00.7
going there, I want to talk about Sara
44:02.7
Duterte because, um, no
44:04.7
comment. Why would the
44:06.7
Vice President of the Republic, who has
44:08.7
everything to say about
44:10.7
Afghan refugees coming in, about
44:12.7
conflict in Gaza and Israel, about
44:14.7
I don't know. She has
44:16.7
statement on everything.
44:18.7
Except, pag binabuli tayo ng
44:20.7
China sa West Philippine Sea. Tapos
44:22.7
pumasok pa si Pulong sa usapan.
44:24.7
What's going on there, Sen. Silianes?
44:28.7
Doon mo makikita. We don't need to be
44:30.7
rocket scientists to figure out
44:32.7
kung sinasaan yung puso ni
44:34.7
Sara Duterte. Ayaw niyang,
44:36.7
diba, if you don't want
44:38.7
to compromise yourself,
44:40.7
diba, might as well
44:42.7
not say anything. Kasi if
44:44.7
she says something positive for
44:46.7
China, ibaba siya.
44:48.7
Diba? Kung sabihin naman niya,
44:50.7
magsabi naman siya ng negative about
44:54.7
compromise na rin sila eh. Diba?
44:56.7
So, ando do na yung kanilang loyalty
44:58.7
and commitment. So,
45:00.7
ang gawin na lang, mag-no comment ka na lang
45:02.7
and try to, ano, parang
45:06.7
this issue will blow away
45:08.7
or ma-redirect yung attention
45:12.7
Pero hanggang kailan siya magtatago sa ganyan.
45:14.7
Diba? O yun ang problema.
45:16.7
And sana, makita naman noong
45:18.7
mga kababayan natin na
45:20.7
ano talaga, na-compromise sila
45:24.7
Pro-China na sila talaga.
45:26.7
Well, may sinabi si Pulong
45:28.7
na don't demonize China.
45:30.7
Hmm, interesting yung mga ganito.
45:32.7
Parang China pang victim.
45:34.7
Kawawa naman ang China, dini-demonize
45:36.7
natin. Wala naman silang ginagawa eh.
45:38.7
Binibigyan tayo ng librang, ano eh, ligo.
45:40.7
Diba? So, I mean, I just find,
45:42.7
siguro naman, siguro.
45:44.7
Okay, ganito. I'll ask you, sir. Point blank.
45:46.7
Do you think China made a bad
45:52.7
masasabi mo good investment
45:56.7
They had a grand time
45:58.7
dito sa Pilipinas.
46:00.7
Diba? Nagkamali sila in
46:04.7
na si President Marcos
46:06.7
will be as the same
46:08.7
as Duterte. In fact,
46:10.7
pati yung mga pink, ang assumption,
46:12.7
is the same eh. Kaya nga sabi ko, teka,
46:14.7
ah, gamali tayo dito. We need to
46:16.7
to accept the fact na si
46:20.7
is different from
46:22.7
from Duterte and that is a good
46:24.7
thing. Diba? So, ah,
46:26.7
siguro yung, yan nga,
46:28.7
kung investment lang nila,
46:30.7
na pakinabangan nila for six years,
46:32.7
now, they don't have any other choice.
46:34.7
They still believe that Sara
46:36.7
Duterte can be president
46:40.7
situation na maaw
46:46.7
2028. Bobongbahan nila yan.
46:48.7
Bubuhusin nila ng pondo.
46:50.7
Ipapanalo nila through
46:52.7
that. Kung baga, they
46:54.7
will have to keep on hoping that, ah,
46:56.7
their investments
46:58.7
eventually would be recooked.
47:00.7
Diba? Yeah, speaking of, ah,
47:04.7
at mabango at gwapo at
47:06.7
presko, the Tulfos
47:08.7
are doing very well. Diba? So, ang ngayon
47:10.7
confirmed na at least two surveys are showing
47:12.7
Rafi Tulfo is now the frontrunner. Although,
47:14.7
it's quite close in the Pulse
47:16.7
Asia 1 because of the Mindanao numbers.
47:18.7
70 plus are just with Sara. Kunti lang
47:20.7
support kay Rafi so far. So, maybe
47:22.7
that opens up conversation about sinong
47:24.7
dapat VP niya down the road. Ah,
47:26.7
um, but, eh, dun sa
47:28.7
Octa survey, for instance, we had, ah,
47:30.7
Professor Ranji try, ah, the other day here on our
47:32.7
show. Ah, when we talk about, nung
47:34.7
pinasok si Ben Tulfo, nag number four
47:36.7
si Ben. Si Erwin still at number one although
47:38.7
went down. Like, this is crazy levels.
47:40.7
I mean, of course, Dutertes are not
47:42.7
doing too bad in the surveys. Sara is
47:44.7
still statistically tied for first or
47:46.7
at least second in surveys. Pulong
47:48.7
and Basta are within range. Tigong
47:50.7
is still top five. So, I'm not
47:52.7
saying laos na ang mga Duterte
47:54.7
but clearly the Tulfos are the new
47:56.7
force here. Um, ikaw bilang
47:58.7
isang machong lalaki,
48:00.7
Sir, saan? Anong pang-indig
48:02.7
niyo mo dito sa, ah, no,
48:04.7
sa abandoned warehouse?
48:06.7
Kaya kahapon kasi ginagawa
48:10.7
Tulfo. Kita tayo sa
48:12.7
abandoned warehouse. So,
48:14.7
anong nangbasa mo dito? Sir,
48:18.7
Well, I think it's yung
48:20.7
ang naman mention niyo and I think
48:22.7
in one of your, ah, episodes
48:24.7
yung The Tulfo Brand.
48:26.7
Di ba? Yun na ngayon yung
48:30.4
But kung titignan mo,
48:32.4
yung tool for brand
48:34.0
is a modification of the
48:36.5
tried and tested formula of
48:41.9
ginagawa niya. Let's say yung dati,
48:44.7
yung si Edi Ilarde pa,
48:46.9
kina Orly Mercado,
48:49.2
yung nag-a-address sila,
48:50.8
may tatawag ng mga hinahing
48:52.4
ng mga kababayan natin, then sila,
48:56.3
address it, they will call the
48:58.7
agencies na para mabigay yun,
49:01.4
or minsan sila mismo
49:02.6
nabibigay. Ganon yun eh. Tapos
49:04.6
ginawa rin yun, another
49:06.5
modification, yung kila Kayetano,
49:08.9
kumpanyero, yung legal advice
49:11.0
approach naman, ginawa rin nila
49:12.5
cheese yun. So, ganon yung ano,
49:15.0
pero itong mga tool for,
49:17.0
medyo ano sa kanila, yung
49:18.6
the macho type, di ba?
49:22.4
pumapatok sa Filipino
49:24.5
voters. Early on, may
49:26.3
nung kami yung ERAP, si ERAP,
49:28.3
president ERAP, ganyan din yun.
49:30.5
Macho cowboy type. Action star.
49:32.5
Fred Lim, o si Fred Lim,
49:36.6
parang Dirty Harry type.
49:38.9
Then you have Duterte.
49:40.3
So, kumbaga, ano siya eh?
49:43.0
Actually, parang isang
49:44.2
mukha lang siya, nagkaroon lang ng mga
49:46.0
modifications. Variations on a theme.
49:48.6
Variations. Variations.
49:49.6
So, yung from the earlier
49:53.4
Edi Ilarde approach,
49:55.3
yan yun, yung kila
49:59.5
Tulfo, Erwin Tulfo,
50:01.4
ganyan. Tapos may
50:03.4
konting aksyon na, kasi nagre-raid
50:09.2
nakita ko yung mga
50:11.6
pumipila talaga doon
50:13.0
sa Senator Raffi. Talagang
50:15.5
they're pinning their hopes
50:20.8
lahat ng, kunyari,
50:22.5
hindi na-feature sa TV.
50:25.3
Pero tinutulungan pa rin nila.
50:27.8
So, maraming natutulungan
50:29.4
behind the scenes.
50:31.2
Kaya kumalat ng kumalat yung
50:36.8
And yan ang ngayon.
50:38.9
I believe that's going to hold until
50:43.8
So, yun naman yun.
50:47.8
termination siya. Kasi
50:50.4
everybody gets old eh.
50:53.3
At some point, di ba?
50:55.3
Then, may bagong uso, may bagong ano.
50:57.4
So, ganun lang yun. It comes in
51:02.6
yun. Weather-weather lang,
51:05.1
sabi nga ni Sir Erab.
51:06.1
Weather-weather lang.
51:07.3
Ni President Erab.
51:09.8
Obviously, I'm offended na you didn't
51:12.0
mention Robin Hood Padilla. But
51:13.7
speaking of Robin Hood Padilla, actually
51:16.0
the interesting thing we see in the Pulse Asia
51:17.9
Service conversation about
51:19.3
Vice President. And Robin Hood is
51:22.0
not doing too well. I think he's even lower than I.M.I. Marcus.
51:24.3
The one that comes out,
51:25.3
very strongly for VP, is
51:27.3
Grace Poe. She's way ahead
51:29.6
of everyone else at around 35%.
51:31.5
So, with statistical margins, she could
51:33.6
go all the way up to 40% almost.
51:35.9
Are you surprised with Grace Poe
51:37.6
still doing very well? Because let's not forget
51:39.5
2016, Grace Poe at some point was
51:41.6
seen as a frontrunner. The citizen
51:43.4
issue came about. And
51:45.4
Duterte took advantage of that. Obviously, he took advantage
51:47.6
of all of yung awa yung tatlo na yan.
51:49.2
B9 versus Mar versus Poe.
51:51.9
Do you think Grace Poe could
51:53.4
also be a factor in 2020?
51:55.3
Kasi parang kinansel siya ng mga dilawan
51:57.5
for the lack of a better term.
51:59.1
Because biniblame siya for Mars loss. Although, I have
52:01.4
big questions with that claim.
52:03.2
Based on second, third preferences.
52:05.1
What is your read on the Grace Poe? Because Poe is also
52:07.4
a form of populism, right? Except Grace Poe
52:09.6
is more than just a populist
52:11.7
carrying her father's name.
52:19.1
we were supporting
52:21.0
Senator Grace Poe back in 2016.
52:23.5
That's what I'm asking you.
52:25.3
And like you, we don't agree
52:27.5
with that, yung sinasabi
52:29.9
nilang, ayan siya ang
52:31.6
reason kung ba't natalo
52:35.4
talaga gano'n. Kung nag-withdraw
52:37.5
man si Senator Grace Poe from the
52:39.6
presidency, tataas lang ang
52:41.5
lamang ni Duterte
52:43.8
over Mar Rojas. Because
52:49.1
Yung gusto nila. Kaya dilipat.
52:53.2
what's done is done. Ngayon, nakikita'sa,
52:55.3
nakikita ko, ang idea nila is
52:57.2
if they are going
53:00.3
Rafi Tulfo for president,
53:04.2
siguro magandang parisa
53:07.5
and, ano, alam mo yun,
53:09.1
babae na, tipong very
53:13.3
Oo, parang softened yung image.
53:15.2
Parang gano'n. Siguro yun yung
53:17.1
compliment na naiisip nila.
53:19.2
And at the same time, palagay ko
53:21.3
na na-expose na rin
53:23.3
yung, kumbaga yung myth.
53:25.3
Na when they elected people
53:27.3
like Robin Padilla,
53:29.2
Amy Marcos, sa vice
53:31.2
presidency, ngayon, nakita
53:38.0
And in the case ni
53:39.0
Amy Marcos, because of
53:41.3
the open war between
53:43.2
the Marcoses and the Dutertes,
53:45.1
siya yung casualty. And
53:46.8
tinatamaan din talaga yung numbers
53:51.2
And we're getting similar
53:56.5
Let's now go to the last but most important part
53:58.9
of our episode. Pag-usapan naman natin ang opposition
54:01.0
because Lenny still ends up at number
54:05.1
policy she served for
54:06.4
2028. I mean, we can have a lot of conversation about
54:09.1
it, but it looks like Lenny's still
54:10.7
being considered as the standard bearer for
54:13.0
the opposition should 2028 come.
54:15.9
What does that say? Because
54:16.9
for me, one thing I found
54:18.9
interesting in the OCTA research is one of their
54:20.8
researches was about political affiliation.
54:23.7
So nung tinignan nila,
54:27.4
BBM camp, Loyalista.
54:31.6
the Duterte camp. Although I'm shocked na may
54:33.4
1% pa rin ng mga Ilocanos
54:35.1
supporting Dutertes. I was like,
54:37.1
sino daw mga Ilocanos niya? I don't see that in bagay.
54:39.2
Siguro mga taga-dabao na Ilocano yan. Kasi may
54:41.4
1% eh. Kasi meron siyang
54:43.3
sub-regional, di ba? So I go, hmm,
54:45.4
sino daw mga 1% niya?
54:47.7
Patawagin ko kayo nga naman dyan,
54:49.1
mga sa Ilocasor Norte.
54:50.6
So that was a very interesting
54:52.6
survey. I found it very, very helpful.
54:54.5
Kasi may kita mo,
54:55.3
believable yung mga sub-demographics din eh.
54:58.3
And then, 4% traditional opposition,
55:00.7
my understanding is probably Liberal Party to.
55:06.0
undecided, independent,
55:08.3
opt for grabs. Hindi pa parang good news
55:10.5
yan, Sen. Trillanes, that
55:12.1
there's just so much more out there
55:14.2
that we can explore in terms of mobilizing
55:16.4
na hindi benta mga Duterte
55:18.6
sa kanila, hindi benta mga
55:20.1
Marcos sa kanila. I suppose that will also
55:22.6
reflect on the Tulfo brand and all.
55:24.4
So there's a, there's a large constituency
55:26.9
that is still not mobilized and perhaps
55:28.6
maybe that should be the conversation for the opposition.
55:31.1
Kasi kanina, purong ibang pinag-usapan natin.
55:32.9
Let's now talk about the option for the opposition.
55:35.4
The real opposition, not the digong opposition.
55:38.9
Okay. While you may have seen
55:41.4
the numbers of Lenny Robredo na medyo significant at 11,
55:49.4
but ako naman, ang nakita ko roon, from 28%,
55:53.6
just two years ago.
55:56.5
Because hindi niya
55:58.6
kinonsolidate at pinabayaan
56:00.6
basically yung base na yun,
56:04.1
So I'm not seeing na parang
56:06.2
it's a strong 11,
56:08.1
but no, pababa yun from
56:10.1
28 yun eh. And that's
56:12.1
the same thing that happened in 2016.
56:16.2
of the vote, but then when
56:18.1
she decided to run for president,
56:20.3
she only was, I think, 6
56:23.6
hinayaan mo nang bumaba ng bumaba.
56:26.2
And ganoon na naman nangyayari dito.
56:28.6
Kaya I believe, kailangan na natin
56:30.3
talagang mag-ano na,
56:37.1
And si Sen. Teresa
56:38.6
is very much ready
56:40.7
to assume that leadership role
56:43.9
itong si Vice President Lenny
56:49.3
categorically, and definitively
56:53.6
Sen. Teresa, ikaw na
56:57.6
tatakbo. And she can ask
57:01.6
to strike her name off
57:05.3
2028 list for president.
57:09.4
totoong ayaw niya na
57:12.0
or hindi na siya interesado
57:13.6
tumakbo for president.
57:16.1
Kasi kung interesado ka naman pala,
57:21.3
Di ba? Magtrabaho.
57:23.6
Magtrabaho ka. I-consolidate mo
57:25.6
yung pinagkatiwalaan tayo
57:29.0
For that matter, pinagkatiwalaan siya
57:32.7
ng 28% of the people.
57:37.2
Kung mag-consolidate mo, tapos
57:39.2
do the other necessary
57:41.3
preparation para kung 2028
57:44.7
she will win. Pero kung
57:47.3
ganoon ulit na style na tipong
57:49.3
teka muna, mabahala na muna kay Jan.
57:51.6
I'll just go around the world muna.
57:53.6
Mag-chill muna ako.
57:56.9
Teka muna. What about
57:58.1
the problems of the country?
58:00.6
Di ba? Hindi naman natapos yung problema
58:02.6
ng bansa nung natalo
58:08.1
Did she stop caring
58:09.6
about the problems of the country?
58:12.3
So ano yung mga leadership
58:14.3
traits na dinidisplay niya dito?
58:20.1
Ngayon, sabi ko nga, kung talagang wala
58:23.6
eh, definitively, sabihin mo na,
58:25.9
hindi na ako talaga tatakbo.
58:29.2
Senator Riza, good luck. I will help you.
58:31.7
So she should do a second passing down the
58:33.8
like, talagang, eto na talaga.
58:35.5
Si Riza, by the way, ganoon, should she
58:37.4
remind everyone that Riza is the opposition
58:39.8
leader? Yes. Kasi yung
58:41.7
unang passing of the baton,
58:45.3
merong hangover pa eh.
58:47.4
People were still clinging on to that
58:51.5
of Eleni Robredo,
58:53.6
President Xi. Kaya hindi pa
58:55.4
nag-sink in ang time na yun. Tsaka hindi pa,
58:57.6
hindi siya widely disseminated.
59:00.1
Pero kung gagawin niya ito
59:01.6
ulit, definitively, ano no,
59:03.4
then mas ano yun,
59:05.3
mas ma-appreciate yun ng tao. Okay.
59:07.8
We'll move on na from
59:10.8
let's start rallying around
59:15.4
And I think that's the
59:20.2
independent opposition.
59:23.6
To have a chance in 2020.
59:27.5
again, just to be fair here,
59:29.4
siguro ang tingin ko is, there are people,
59:31.2
I'm not saying Lenny, but maybe there are strategies of her
59:33.4
who are saying, um,
59:37.3
strategic ambiguity, if I can put it that way.
59:39.7
Para siya yung sa West Philippines si Paul is,
59:41.7
let's have a strategic ambiguity, let's see
59:43.5
what she does. If 2025, she wins,
59:46.0
she wins a local government
59:47.4
office, and then she does well, then
59:49.4
who knows, maybe she'll be in that position.
59:51.4
What you're saying is that, neither nor
59:53.5
here nor there, is
59:55.6
kind of a suboptimal for everyone.
59:57.4
Because it doesn't allow for Riza to step up,
59:59.7
it also doesn't necessarily
60:01.5
put her in the best position to
60:03.1
get the ball rolling for 2028. Because we can
60:05.5
say Sarah is already in a campaign
60:07.7
mode in one way or another.
60:09.4
Rafi's already doing that, although he's not directly
60:11.4
attacking Sarah, but clearly we see what
60:13.4
Rafi's strategy is. Don't talk about
60:15.4
Sarah, make sure that you do your part
60:17.5
well, and that strategy's working wonders
60:19.6
for Rafi Tulfo so far, from
60:21.0
ilang percent lang siya nung two years ago, di ba?
60:23.3
Ngayon, 35, 40 percent
60:25.5
to siya. So, what you're saying is that
60:27.4
this, neither here nor there,
60:29.6
medyo malilate na tayo,
60:31.2
even though some would say, hindi, malayo pa naman
60:33.0
ng 2028, eh. Masyado naman kayong
60:35.0
atat, masyado kayong advance mag-isip kayong dalawa, eh.
60:39.3
ambiguous approach na yan,
60:41.3
yan yung ginawa nila
60:42.5
in the lead up to
60:47.2
Look at what happened to us. Kung
60:49.3
nag-e-expect ka ng
60:50.6
different result, di ba? Dapat,
60:53.3
teka muna, the same approach,
60:55.4
different result, medyo may problema
60:57.6
tayo dyan. Tapos, ang
60:59.1
sabi ko nga, ma-equate ko yan dun sa
61:01.4
ano, eh, sa no comment
61:04.9
Di ba? Baka uso talaga ngayon ng
61:07.1
strategic ambiguity talaga.
61:12.8
ito lang yung sa akin, ano, from a
61:21.3
bakit kailangan ka pa ba hiyakatin?
61:23.3
Eh, hikayatin, or
61:24.8
kumbinsihin itong makbong presidente?
61:28.2
Di ba? Kung talagang
61:29.5
nakikita mong you have the
61:31.3
capacity to make a difference in the lives
61:33.3
of the people, at marami
61:35.2
nag-a, marami kang
61:36.8
nasimulan ng mga base, mga base,
61:39.3
and besides, vice president ka, eh.
61:43.3
dapat, ando do na yun sa'yo,
61:47.2
let's go for it. Bakit kailangan
61:49.1
pang kumbinsihin kung talagang mahalan mo
61:51.2
yung bayan, magkukusa ka.
61:53.3
So, yun yung problema ko dyan.
61:55.9
Hindi dapat, eh na, ano,
62:00.4
ang leader. Dapat yung leader
62:04.8
Right. Just a tiny point on this.
62:08.2
Again, I mentioned
62:09.3
yung 40-45 percent
62:10.9
somehow up for grabs.
62:13.6
How do we get those people
62:15.1
on the side of the good fight,
62:17.6
Santa Trillia? Ano yung mga
62:19.3
katangihan, ano yung mga attributes,
62:21.1
ano yung mga positioning na sa tingin mong
62:22.8
kailangan natin, especially mga kabataan, di ba?
62:25.4
Aside from making better TikTok videos
62:27.5
and travel vlogs, ano pang
62:29.0
ibang kailangan natin sa Santa Trillia?
62:33.6
yun na nga, kaya binabalik ko dun sa
62:37.3
Lenny, just two years ago.
62:40.7
held on to that dream.
62:43.6
Di ba? Ando doon yun.
62:45.2
So, part of that 45 is the
62:49.8
hiniwalay lang naman is
62:54.7
the 20, and the 31 of the
62:57.1
That was 4 percent lang yung
62:58.6
Liberal Party opposition niya.
63:02.7
For that matter, yung 4 percent, nag-shrink pa.
63:05.1
So, dati 28. So, yung 24 niya,
63:07.9
na bumoto sa kanya,
63:08.8
nando doon sa 45.
63:10.5
Di ba? So, in fact,
63:12.6
kung sino yung pinakamalaking nawalan dito,
63:16.5
pink base, nando doon siya,
63:18.5
kasi nagahanap sila ng leader.
63:20.6
So, the two facades, essentially,
63:22.8
of uniting, di ba? Yung 60 na yan,
63:24.5
na-split ngayon ni Sarin Tulfo.
63:26.8
I believe so. So, ngayon,
63:29.5
pagka lumiwanag na yung
63:34.8
ng pink movement,
63:37.1
yun yun, magka-gravitate yun
63:38.8
towards that. Kasi ngayon talaga napabayaan, eh.
63:46.7
parang, ano muna, yung holding
63:48.5
pattern. Ano ba nangyari dyan?
63:50.6
Sige, abangan natin. But, ano,
63:52.8
I believe, ano yan,
63:55.0
it boils down to the
63:56.5
next leader of the
63:58.4
independent opposition. Kung paano
64:01.8
kakamada yung kanyang organization,
64:05.2
paano niya ay kakamada yung
64:06.6
kanyang mensahe, at paano niya
64:11.7
45 na yun, or at least yung
64:16.7
siya yung kailangan pagkatiwalaan,
64:19.0
mamuno ng ating bansa
64:20.2
after the Marcos administration.
64:22.8
Very, very good point. Actually, even more
64:24.7
optimistic than I was considering
64:26.9
yung una. You're right.
64:28.6
Dun sa 40 plus percent na yan,
64:31.0
maybe half of that
64:32.2
were already sympathetic, if not
64:34.8
already involved in the pink movement.
64:37.5
So, that just tells you how much
64:38.8
more is on top tier or under top
64:40.9
tier. Kaya, mahalaga itong mga conversation na yan.
64:43.1
5 a.m. to kanina sa akin,
64:44.8
medyo worried ako na medyo bangag ako and all.
64:46.9
Pero, as always, more than
64:48.7
hour of conversation, like a breeze.
64:51.3
Very passionate. Thank you so
64:52.7
much, Senator Trillianes, for the passion
64:54.7
and for the wide-ranging discussion
64:56.8
we're having here. Looking forward to
64:58.7
having more of this in the future. Siguro, we can do
65:00.5
somewhere in Tagaytay, in person.
65:02.7
I'm sure ma-appreciate ng tao yan para
65:07.5
Thank you so much,
65:08.6
Senator Trillianes. Magpahinga po kayo.
65:12.7
Maraming salamat, Richard. Thank you.
65:14.6
As always, talk to you soon.
65:18.5
Alright, guys. Good morning, good
65:22.7
So, malamig po siya dito.
65:24.5
Maga dito. Wala-wala akong on na
65:26.5
heater or anything like that, Baguio boy.
65:28.8
Nasa window lang po ako dito.
65:30.6
Nasa window. So, medyo malamig.
65:32.4
Thank you so much again sa lahat ng mga
65:34.1
nakinig sa atin. I hope na-appreciate nyo itong
65:36.4
usapan natin with Senator
65:38.6
Trillianes. I always like our conversation
65:40.8
with Senator Trillianes kasi straight
65:42.7
to the point. No BS.
65:47.0
we say controversial things. I'm sure
65:48.6
may mga nasabi kami na hindi kayo
65:50.5
sangayon or hindi kayo agreed or
65:52.7
sa tingin nyo medyo, ayun naman yung
65:55.0
dalawang ano na yan.
65:58.9
I think Senator Trillianes is
66:01.0
saying things that are very
66:02.7
important. Things that even if you
66:04.9
don't agree with, I think you have to really ponder
66:06.9
and take any consideration. So, maraming
66:08.8
salamat sa inyong lahat
66:11.0
for joining us. And on my part,
66:13.0
siguro try ko to get some sleep again.
66:15.4
Ilang oras lang tayo natulog. 5
66:16.9
a.m. I had to wake up already
66:18.2
for this dahil ang hirap ng
66:20.6
time difference is zone difference.
66:22.7
So, ganon ko kayo kamahal
66:24.6
at hopefully na-appreciate nyo rin yung mga
66:26.6
conversations na meron tayo kahit walang kape,
66:28.9
walang breakfast. Wala pa akong time
66:30.8
maligo kaya ang gulo yung hair natin.
66:33.3
So, hahabol ko na yung mga ligo and coffee
66:34.9
mamaya pero pahinga ko ng konti.
66:37.1
On that note, thank you very much. God bless
66:38.8
and talk to you soon.
