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00:00.6
Alright, good evening, good morning everyone. Thank you so much for joining us for the latest episode of our podcast.
00:06.9
Eto, may returning na tayo dito sa podcast natin. Of course, one of our favorite guests and my former professor, Professor Ranjit Rai, who is also a fellow at OCTA Research. Thank you very much, Professor, for joining us.
00:18.9
Thank you, Richard, for having me here. Good morning, good afternoon, good evening to anyone, to everyone who's watching this particular podcast.
00:26.4
Thank you so much.
00:56.4
Thank you so much.
01:26.4
Very importantly, obviously, the policy issue one was interesting. Correct me if I'm wrong, if you guys also have your own version, kasi the charter change survey was very important, which we had a separate episode on, and hopefully I'll also have Ronnie Holmes of Policy Issue Sigur to also discuss their survey.
01:41.1
But I think it would be interesting to also discuss charter change. But where I think your survey agency has done something very interesting, which I saw on Twitter a few days ago, I was tagged by some people who were referring to this survey.
01:56.4
I think it was a survey whereby you're looking at political affiliation. For the lack of a better term, loyalist versus DDS versus the Lao, pink, whatever, you know, this kind of pedestrian way of putting it. Apparently, that survey was from you guys. So when forwarding data from you, I said, no, we have to have a conversation about this, Professor Rai.
02:16.0
So let's first get the ball rolling because, yes, the election proper will be next year. Yes, technically speaking, siguro mga October pa.
02:26.4
But we all know, as early as right now, everyone is talking about next year's elections. It's just the nature of politics in our country.
02:34.0
So what is the OCTA research finding so far as far as the Senate race is concerned? Of course, the most high-profile race. And then from there, let's talk about the bigger implications of that.
02:44.7
You want to share, Professor, your survey?
02:46.8
Yeah, yeah, sure. Okay, I'll just share a screen for everyone watching.
02:50.1
Yes, please go ahead, sir.
02:51.7
Okay, so just for everyone's information, why don't we do a...
02:56.4
A regular survey, quarterly, and this is our Tugonang Masa survey, and this is our first survey for the year, 2024, quarter one.
03:05.0
So it's, yeah, it's around political preferences of adult Filipinos.
03:11.9
And, you know, it was conducted from March 11 to 14, and the gold standard, face-to-face interviews, 1,200 respondents all around the country.
03:24.6
That's Balans Luzon.
03:26.4
The National Capital Legion, Visayas, and Mindanao.
03:30.3
And, of course, the margin of error is plus minus 3%.
03:35.7
Okay, what are the big findings?
03:39.2
Okay, so here are the list of possible winners.
03:44.4
If the election for the Senate was held during the period of the survey, which was March 11 to 14.
03:52.1
So a note to our viewers, these things, these numbers,
03:56.4
these numbers will change, these rankings will change.
03:59.1
Okay, and so when you look at it, look at the list, it's very similar to the Pulse Asia list in many respects.
04:07.0
So we have Erwin Tulfo at 58%.
04:10.6
We have Tito Soto, of course, at 50%, 51%.
04:15.5
Christopher Goh or Bong Goh, Senator Goh, at 49%.
04:20.2
And the new person we added to the list, the disruptor in this list, is...
04:26.4
is, of course, Mr. Ben Tulfo, the brother of Erwin Tulfo.
04:29.8
Another Tulfo, yeah.
04:32.9
No, but this is important because this is the first time we're including him in the list.
04:37.7
And he caused a major disruption at 42%.
04:43.5
So if you do a straight counting, he is in the top five, no?
04:48.9
Okay, and of course, former President Rodrigo Duterte, 38%.
04:53.9
So I guess this is the top five.
04:55.4
And, yeah, this looks similar to the surveys of some of the more prestigious survey companies that have come out.
05:06.3
And to round off, we have Benjamin Abalos, Benher Abalos.
05:12.6
These are the statistically, the personalities with a statistical chance of winning the election.
05:19.3
Being the top 12, I should say.
05:22.7
If the elections were held during the survey.
05:25.4
Okay, so the big surprises here, Ben Tulfo.
05:30.7
Yeah, Ben Tulfo was the big disruptor.
05:32.6
Everybody went down because of him.
05:34.8
Just to give you a sense, Erwin Tulfo was 76%.
05:39.2
He was hovering around 68% to 74% for the last two quarters.
05:46.5
His brother comes into the list.
05:48.3
He's now down by 18 points, which is pretty regular.
05:52.4
Regular, because, you know, it happens with the...
05:55.4
It's the brothers anyway also, no?
05:57.1
So you put two names.
05:58.4
It also happens with the be nice, you know?
06:00.8
So when you put two names in the list, you know, the voters tend to, you know, focus on...
06:09.0
So now he's, what, 58%.
06:11.6
He's 18 points down.
06:14.3
I think the big story here is Aimee Marcos, Senator Aimee Marcos.
06:18.6
She used to be 42%.
06:20.2
She's down 13 points.
06:21.7
In fact, she's the, I think, one of the biggest...
06:30.9
Not slight, but actually a significant decline in her numbers.
06:35.8
She's still within the top 12.
06:38.9
Her range here is 6 to 12.
06:41.2
But her number was 42%.
06:43.9
She was around that area, or that range, I should say.
06:47.4
38 to 44% for the last three quarters.
06:50.6
And for the first quarter of this year,
06:53.7
she went down 13 points.
06:57.2
So these, I think, are the big stories for this particular survey.
07:04.0
You know, the survey findings for the quarter one.
07:07.2
I think another one, if you go down the list, Richard, if you go down, no?
07:13.5
You'll be surprised that Pulong Duterte, another new entrant.
07:21.7
Can you see him from the...
07:26.2
This is kind of surprising to us.
07:34.1
This is the first time we're measuring his numbers.
07:38.6
And he did pretty well.
07:39.7
What do you mean surprised?
07:40.1
Surprised that he's within the range or surprised that he's not higher?
07:44.9
Surprised that he got high marks.
07:47.3
Remember, there are three Dutertes in this list.
07:49.1
He got higher, nominally higher than his brother.
07:52.4
So it also shows.
07:53.7
The power of that brand, Duterte brand.
07:56.2
They're rating higher than some of the more established political names.
08:00.5
Some of the other established political names who are really trying to get into the Senate.
08:04.4
We are not certain Baste or Pulong will run.
08:08.8
But it just goes to show that they have a strong race following as far as the Filipino voter is concerned.
08:17.8
I don't know for some reason, bakit frozen yung screen?
08:24.2
Let me redo it again.
08:25.4
My apologies for that.
08:26.7
So yeah, it's my, it's my, maybe it's just the internet or something.
08:30.4
Yung nga, measure frozen siya.
08:31.9
If you can redo it again.
08:33.4
Is that, is that good now?
08:37.3
I see the first page, but I wonder bakit hindi ko nakikita yung mga ibang pages.
08:42.4
Is that, is that better?
08:44.3
I wonder what's going on.
08:45.6
Bakit yung first page lang pinapakita dito sa site?
08:51.0
As first page lang.
08:51.9
But can you see, Baste?
08:53.7
No, as in, the thing it shows is just the, the tugon ng ma sa first page.
09:02.2
You're using a different, baka may iba pa yung, baka yung window na bukas?
09:06.7
Ah, wala, wala naman.
09:10.0
Usually it doesn't happen.
09:11.1
So I was wondering what's going on.
09:12.3
I mean, your explanation is still valid.
09:14.0
Just for the, um, for the purpose of those who want to see the exact numbers and all.
09:19.5
Gusto mo lang makita nila.
09:20.5
So I was just wondering what was going on.
09:23.7
So there, there are two people we have to talk about.
09:25.8
One is Ben Tulfo and the other one is Baste.
09:28.9
And we have a situation of three Dutertes within the list.
09:34.0
And then you also have a situation of two Tulfos within top five.
09:40.9
Can this be smell?
09:43.2
I don't know what's going on, but it's just, ayan, now it's moving na.
09:46.3
Yeah, it's dynamic na.
09:51.0
Erwin Tulfo at 58.4%.
09:53.7
So it's more or less the same as we see in Pulse Asia.
09:57.4
Just a little higher maybe with us, but you know, it's still within the margin of error.
10:01.9
So you can, so you can corroborate, as you say, you can compare.
10:05.5
Then you can see that, um, we, we can invalid, we can validate, uh, their list.
10:11.1
They can validate ours.
10:13.0
And, uh, the only, I think the only difference is the placement of, uh, Duterte in their
10:17.5
It's a little higher.
10:18.9
Uh, but you know, uh, this is how it came out.
10:24.9
The only big story is Erwin Tulfo lost 18 points, but his brother is in the top three,
10:31.2
So, uh, that split the vote.
10:33.4
Um, uh, Senator Marcos has a 13 point decline.
10:38.3
But she's still within the top 12, uh, from 42, uh, to 29%.
10:44.6
Uh, and then of course, uh, we have, I think still significant Bastet Duterte getting 16%.
10:54.0
So, uh, when we go down the list, yeah, for the traditional opposition, um, the liberals,
11:02.7
I think the highest ranking, uh, no, but it's, it's really Pangilinan Trilon.
11:09.6
The regular names are still there.
11:14.2
Uh, Lenny Robred is 11.7%.
11:16.6
She went down in this particular survey.
11:19.7
But, uh, yeah, this is, uh, I think.
11:23.0
Uh, um, I, uh, you know, in, in terms of the, um, percentage, Pico Pangilinan still
11:29.9
has a very good chance, uh, uh, uh, former Senator Delores, an excellent chance.
11:35.1
So, you know, this is, this, these are just snapshots of a particular period.
11:39.2
Uh, these numbers will change, obviously, as we come closer to the, uh, to October,
11:45.1
And when we start campaigning.
11:47.1
But these are the dominant names in the list.
11:49.2
Uh, Secretary Ralph Rector is not doing so bad at, uh, 13%.
11:53.9
Abigail Binay, uh, is at 14.1.
11:58.0
It's still, these are good numbers, no?
11:59.8
For, uh, uh, people thinking of running for the Senate in the double digits.
12:05.5
So, this is enough.
12:06.0
It's a base to work on, no?
12:08.9
But the, I think the, the big story is, I think, Bam Aquino in our survey, 7.3%.
12:16.3
I think that's the difference between us and, uh, and Pulse, no?
12:20.0
Uh, so, then we go, as we go down this, uh,
12:23.0
uh, um, the highest rate, rate, rated, no, uh, possible candidate, uh, for the left
12:29.9
is Nery Colmenares at 5.4%.
12:32.3
Which is not a surprise, no?
12:34.5
It's not a surprise, and it's stable there at that number.
12:37.3
It's still a good, uh, base to start with.
12:40.0
So, there's, there's some, uh, traction as far as, uh, this, uh, this candidate's name
12:45.4
is concerned, uh, Congressman Nery Colmenares of, uh, the progressives on the left, no?
12:52.1
But wala kayong, ano, yung, uh, awareness level.
12:59.0
We, we actually have, but just for the sake of it.
13:01.1
I mean, in the, in the, yeah, in the, in the, in the.
13:03.6
At the table within the, it was a packed table, eh, almost six.
13:08.9
But we, we, we gave the awareness, uh, numbers for our clients, obviously.
13:14.9
The top 10 have a high awareness already.
13:18.4
Top 12, I'm sorry, yeah.
13:19.5
Almost 100%, yeah.
13:22.1
Uh, except for, uh, Benher Abalos.
13:25.6
So, a little bit than that, no?
13:27.1
Something like, uh, about 90%, 90, 92%.
13:31.7
But, uh, the, the, the relatively, um, high awareness for most of these, uh, top ranking,
13:38.9
uh, senatorial balls, uh, in the top 12.
13:43.3
I mean, but the, this looks like a very packed survey, no?
13:47.5
Kasi even if you go to the lower half, there are people who were sent.
13:52.1
For multiple times.
13:53.4
Forget about people are known, no?
13:56.1
So, I, I, I don't know.
13:57.4
I mean, of course, uh, longitudinally, we can refer to other surveys here, but, I mean,
14:01.8
from both of us, I think our understanding is that this is probably the most competitive
14:06.4
If all of the people we think are gonna run are gonna run, right?
14:09.3
I mean, this is crazy.
14:12.6
It's, it's, it's very tight.
14:14.0
And we feel that at least four slots are the only ones being, uh, relatively open, no?
14:20.7
And you'll notice.
14:21.7
Uh, when you look at, as you go down the list, that the gaps between candidates are
14:26.2
much, much, much smaller, no?
14:28.3
From, uh, from, uh, 10 to 15, no?
14:32.1
So, uh, from rank 10 to 15 or, yeah, it's very competitive.
14:38.3
And I think the magic number for, for, for us is something, uh, above 30%, no?
14:44.2
Anybody above 30% has a very good chance of getting in the top 12.
14:49.6
That looks like the threshold.
14:51.7
Yeah, you, you, that looks like it.
14:53.6
But 20% puts you within the competitive range and 30% more or less puts you almost in a
14:59.4
shoe-in range, right?
15:00.7
Yeah, assured of a spot.
15:03.0
You see, the, the, the vulnerables are those, uh, rank 8 and below it.
15:07.8
So, yeah, it's gonna be very competitive.
15:10.0
Which includes Aimee Marcos, no?
15:12.4
Yeah, for the first time.
15:13.5
For the first time.
15:13.9
It's quite a, quite a shock, no?
15:15.2
It's a shocker considering, you know.
15:17.1
Actually, it's a shocker for us because, uh, you know, she's had, uh, you know, she's had,
15:21.7
she's not a client, by the way, uh, she, we, we, we've been measuring her numbers really
15:27.3
as a proxy also for the administration, no?
15:29.9
Um, and it's, it's gone down and her numbers have gone down, um, and to some extent, although
15:36.8
we haven't reported, uh, the numbers for the administration yet, we're still going over
15:40.8
them, uh, second time.
15:42.6
Uh, there, there's a slight decline, uh, on, on, on major issues.
15:46.2
But Aimee is opposition in a way, right?
15:48.0
I know, maybe, maybe that's part of the problem also.
15:51.7
Where is she actually?
15:52.9
She's more opposition.
15:53.6
I mean, let's be honest about it.
15:56.0
She's, uh, maybe that, that, that erosion, no?
15:58.6
That noise and, uh, the confusion on, uh, which side she is, uh, supposed to be.
16:04.1
I find it also interesting, um, uh, Professor Rai, the, the fact that Isko and Willy Ong
16:09.3
are almost the same.
16:10.9
I mean, it's very.
16:11.7
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
16:12.7
I was wondering how far they were back in the day.
16:14.5
One was presidential ball, now competitive at some point.
16:17.8
One was like a vice presidential that people were not sure about.
16:20.6
And mukhang, eto, baka mag-third time blocking na si Willy Ong, no?
16:24.5
Just like reason.
16:25.7
It's, it's, it's very possible, Richard, eh.
16:27.3
That's very possible.
16:28.0
Eto, may chance na siya mag-third time blocking, no?
16:30.1
Kasi, it's, for the last three quarters, he's been in the top 12.
16:33.8
Yeah, pasok mo siya, eh.
16:34.8
And actually, uh, very few occasions, uh, in the, uh, in the last few quarters that
16:40.6
these numbers have really fluctuated, uh, you know, it's statistically stable.
16:45.4
Except that in this particular quarter, uh, for the last two quarters,
16:50.6
it's been statistically stable.
16:52.3
But the, this third quarter, he, uh, went down slightly because, you know,
16:57.1
you, you put in two, two big names, eh.
16:59.3
Uh, President Duterte and, uh, former President Duterte and, of course,
17:04.9
Ben Tulfoy, disrupted the list.
17:07.3
So, they, they ate into a lot of the, uh, support for the others, no?
17:12.2
So that's one big takeaway that once you, uh, introduce, uh, BNB, right?
17:17.8
Ben and, uh, Baste, diba?
17:21.3
It, it, it kind of scrambled the whole rankings and all of that, which tells you how volatile,
17:26.5
you know, the situation is, including the top guy coming down to 58%, uh, from...
17:31.6
18 points down, 18 points down.
17:33.4
Yeah, yeah, from 70 plus percent.
17:35.0
I mean, that's crazy.
17:35.7
Mid-70s, uh, percent.
17:39.2
So, um, uh, so one implication is if you're Erwin Tulfoy, the biggest threat to you topping
17:44.1
the Senate race, because the point matters to be, is your own brother, right?
17:49.0
And, um, what it looks like.
17:51.2
Ang marites sa akin is yung pinakakuya nila ay napaisip bigla na, wait lang, baka okay
17:56.6
lang ako rin tumakbo dyan.
17:58.0
Kasi, Mon Tulfo wasn't doing too bad in 2019, uh, service, if I'm not mistaken.
18:03.2
And he's the, he's the OG, right?
18:05.7
So, as Tulfo Ron would be quite bad for Erwin, right?
18:09.4
It could really split the vote in ways that happen.
18:11.3
So, the, the explosive part of this is TNT.
18:15.0
Tulfo and Tulfo, you know?
18:16.6
Uh, so, uh, but they're on the opposite sides politically, you have to understand.
18:20.6
And, uh, they're leaning, uh, towards, uh, the Duterte side and, uh, uh, Erwin is,
18:27.7
is, is very much, no, with the administration.
18:30.4
Which is like the Marcoses, right?
18:32.0
One, one is the admin, one is the, the other side.
18:34.9
But, but, okay, I don't, of course, I'm not sure if this was in the survey, but is there
18:40.0
an, um, when people, um, express their preference, meron bang appreciation ng mga ganyan nuances
18:47.0
or it's more really the brand, the name, the, the, the name recall?
18:50.6
We, we don't have the data yet for that, uh, or hopefully we're going to build a probe
18:55.6
on that, uh, and we, we, we link preference with culture, you know?
19:00.3
Of course, it's a big debate in politics, uh, um, but, you know, this is where we're
19:04.5
coming from, from Okta, and that these preferences are built on identities, you know, on cleavages,
19:10.0
on perceptions about, uh, our political culture, you know?
19:14.0
And, and, and you'll see that in the next, uh, set of, uh, survey data that we'll, we're
19:19.3
going to show you.
19:20.6
Uh, but, but yes, brand is important, and you're seeing it, no?
19:24.1
The Tulfo brand is alive and kicking and, and still very competitive.
19:28.7
You're also seeing it with the Duterte brand.
19:30.8
All three, uh, possible candidates, I'm sure, uh, you know, we're not sure if any of them
19:37.5
are actually going to run, are in, uh, the top 15.
19:41.0
So, you know, uh, this is, uh, brand, brand name, you know, uh, is important.
19:47.3
And in this particular midterm elections, if these, if this might look like the cast,
19:52.7
no, it's going to be highly competitive because you have, you're, you're pitting, you know,
19:57.3
very established brands against each other.
19:59.9
And then again, you know, machinery will come in, uh, your network, political network will
20:06.2
Of course, resources will come in.
20:08.1
And, and, and so, you know, uh, you know, to, uh, go to the next part of our survey,
20:13.6
you, you'll notice that, you know, it's also important if you're aligned with the administration,
20:17.3
I think that's a perfect segue.
20:20.1
But before we segue to the next part, because that's where we can break down the alignments
20:23.9
and affiliations and preferences, which is, I think, kudos to Okta for doing that, because
20:28.8
I think that's the kind of service we want to also see more, more data on that because
20:32.5
we generally talking, we talk about DDS versus loyalist in a blogger sense of the word, but
20:37.8
we really need the data.
20:39.4
But, but, uh, for a moment, can we, I understand that, you know, we want to talk about things
20:44.8
based on as much possible as data.
20:47.3
We can get, but let's just say, despite the epistemological limitations, if I can
20:52.1
put it, what is your sense with the rise and rise of Tulfo's?
20:55.7
Because our understanding is that, well, I mean, Rafi Tulfo is also now the front runner,
21:01.2
um, to be the next president of the Philippines.
21:03.6
Although of course, in the Pulse Asia survey, at least from what we see, it's statistically
21:07.0
tied, but his trajectory is just incredible from teens to 30 plus percent right now.
21:13.3
And who knows, right?
21:14.8
If Lenny doesn't run or someone else, probably numbers will go more.
21:17.2
To Tulfo than Sarah, considering the opposition between Sarah and, and, and, and, uh, and,
21:22.2
and Lenny Robredo.
21:23.7
So, um, so this is really the, uh, you're absolutely right.
21:27.3
We can talk about the Duterte as shortly, but the, the, the, the, the thing with the
21:32.9
Tulfos is, um, Basco Dito is the surprise to me is how Duterte is made it to national
21:39.7
politics ahead of Tulfos.
21:41.1
Can I say, if we recall it five, 10 years ago, the Tulfos were already a national brand.
21:46.0
It was just a matter of.
21:47.2
They were already household names and they already had that huge appeal to the masses
21:53.0
as a kind of a savior of the people.
21:55.4
Talagang top na top nila yan.
21:56.6
So in a way you could say this is a belated right harvest of that long-term building of
22:04.3
their brand and, and the appeal that they, they enjoy among the, I mean, and then that
22:07.6
macho savior, I won't say vigilante justice, but you know, let's just call it Tulfo justice.
22:13.6
I interviewed Rafi Tulfo.
22:14.8
So people can check the interview that I had with Rafi Tulfo on this.
22:17.3
Um, but, uh, so, you know, I want to understand where you come from as a political scientist.
22:23.0
Again, I understand because you're now in the survey agencies, you want to be a little
22:26.7
bit, uh, uh, circumspec about, uh, any kind of analysis, but just overall, um,
22:34.0
I agree with the common perceptions about the Tulfo brand.
22:38.2
It's, it's, it's, it's been evolving over time.
22:42.3
Uh, the decision to run was, uh, only recent.
22:45.4
Um, and the decision.
22:47.2
It was, by the way, linked also to the support of the family, you know, uh, to a great
22:51.6
extent, they were associated very strongly with, uh, the brand also.
22:56.3
And, uh, they share many commonalities, not as far as, uh, uh, those, that brand of leadership
23:02.4
and governance is concerned.
23:05.7
Um, yeah, they're, they, they come from the populist mode, no.
23:09.4
And, uh, this, you know, in, in, in an era where, or in a context where we have weak
23:18.4
A state that's characterized as weak on many fronts.
23:21.7
Uh, you find space for these kinds of candidates and the kinds of advocacies and the leadership
23:27.5
style that they promote.
23:29.1
Um, these tend to rise, especially during hard times.
23:33.5
Uh, Richard, you see a lot of populists, uh, rising up, no?
23:37.5
And, and, and, and this particular context that we're in as a country is extremely hard
23:42.5
for most of our countrymen.
23:43.8
Mahirap na hirapan mo yung ating kababayan.
23:46.5
Naikita rin namin.
23:47.1
Sa surveys namin yan, consistently over the last year, no, ang talagang problema, number
23:53.0
one, urgent national concern that people want to resolve, that what people want government
23:57.9
to resolve has always been the high prices of goods and services.
24:01.7
Nahihirapan po sila.
24:02.7
Their, their, uh, second is, of course, uh, accessible food and, of course, higher wages.
24:09.0
So, yan, consistent yan.
24:10.5
Na in, in times of hardship, you know, uh, populists, uh, find space, no?
24:16.5
And, I guess, this is the kind of, uh, uh, population that's very, uh,
24:20.4
I think the term we used is, uh,
24:21.4
It's preferable for both, uh, Filipinos now, yeah.
24:23.9
And the term we use is, uh, um, what's that, uh, weak states, strong Tulfos, right?
24:32.1
So, but, but, but, that's a, that's a problem, you know?
24:34.3
And that's a, that's a struggle, yeah?
24:35.7
We, um, you, you use the weak states, strong society, uh, perspective.
24:40.8
But that's, that's one way of looking at it.
24:42.2
But the populist appeal is very strong with Filipinos.
24:45.4
You have to also understand the two.
24:46.4
Tulfos, I have a particular ethnic, uh, background.
24:49.3
They're, they're Bisaya.
24:50.3
They have a strong support as far as that's concerned.
24:52.7
When you look at their name.
24:53.1
Although their father is Ilocano.
24:54.6
Last time I checked.
24:55.3
Yes, I know, I know.
24:57.5
From Batakpo na yata, eh.
24:58.9
And then, Japanese, Japanese mom nila, yeah.
25:02.0
And then, they, you know, they, they're also popular in, uh, you know,
25:05.6
they're a strong candidate in, in, in this particular sense.
25:09.3
You get votes everywhere.
25:10.4
When you look at the Duterte, let's say, assuming there's a Sara, Rafi,
25:15.4
you know, uh, competition in 2020, which is so far away, no, uh, Rafi will,
25:21.6
will have, uh, will be very competitive because he, he gets votes everywhere.
25:27.1
North, South, Visaya.
25:28.9
I mean, we have a probe.
25:30.5
We just have to ask our, um, uh, you know, our, uh, the, the company had
25:36.2
commissioned it, uh, if we can release, uh, the probe on, uh, Tulfo versus Sara.
25:41.6
But in our probe, uh, Tulfo has not lost.
25:45.4
Uh, Tulsara, Duterte, one-on-one.
25:47.7
In fact, the gap is increasing.
25:50.0
Thank, thank you for.
25:51.1
The reality is, the reality is, we won't give the numbers, siyempre, kasi.
25:56.0
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
25:56.8
No, no, I appreciate, I appreciate that.
26:00.1
The, the, the basic, the basic, uh, perspective is, um, in, in Philippine elections, it's
26:05.8
not just a two-way contest naman, eh.
26:08.3
You haven't seen a two-way contest, okay, uh, in post-march, although Philippines, except,
26:13.5
no, no, except for the contest.
26:15.2
Within Cory Aquino and, uh, President Marcos Sr., perhaps that's always been, uh, you
26:21.2
know, tandems, no?
26:22.6
Multiple tandems competing against each other.
26:24.7
And that's where Rafi Tulfo's weakness is, okay?
26:28.5
Yes, no baluarte.
26:30.4
Duterte's a consistent baluarte.
26:32.4
Even now, despite all the attacks against them, they have a baluarte.
26:36.5
Yes, you can say it's only located in one regional.
26:40.1
Yeah, I mean, the now, but, you know, you still have that.
26:43.0
So in a three-way, four-way contest.
26:45.2
Salah Duterte will always be competitive.
26:49.4
That's a very good point.
26:50.3
Yeah, Kenan Sabico, of course, I understand that.
26:54.3
You know, um, I thank you so much, by the way, for at least confirming, because, uh, you
26:58.3
know, I've been saying for a while that not only in Pausasia, but we see in different
27:02.0
surveys, this, uh, upward trajectory of, uh, Rafi Tulfo.
27:06.2
Obviously, that's where the second preference comes in because it's very possible that a
27:10.0
lot of those candidates there, particularly Leni, I doubt if she'll run in 2028, but of
27:14.2
course, things could change.
27:15.2
If she does well, let's say as a local official in 2025 onwards, uh, so that's where things
27:21.5
could get very interesting, right?
27:22.9
Um, but obviously you're right.
27:24.8
Um, the other important factor, Duterte's and three Duterte's, um, could potentially
27:29.5
I mean, that's next level, right?
27:31.0
We have already it, Mag Ina, right?
27:33.7
The Villars, the Caetanos, but, um, three brothers and three Duterte's is something,
27:40.2
Yeah, this is, uh, this is a veto constituency already.
27:44.8
Uh, yeah, parang ano na, partido na sila, no?
27:47.2
Um, yeah, but, uh, we'll see what if it'll actually happen, you know?
27:52.3
Uh, things could change, uh, between now and October.
27:55.9
And so, para sa ating mga kababayan, nagbabago pa yung mga numero na to.
27:59.5
At meron pang espasyo para sa mga progresibo.
28:02.2
Meron pang espasyo talaga para sa ating mga, sa opposition.
28:06.2
Uh, and of course, you know, wala pa namang kampanya.
28:10.4
Although nagkakampanya na informary ang lahat.
28:14.1
Mukhang pamilya ang, uh, malaking factor dito.
28:18.6
Ang pangalan, pamilya, pera, ang magiging malaking factor dito sa ating, uh, 2025 election.
28:25.2
It's gonna be expensive, very competitive, and parang may alas yung ating, uh, administration.
28:31.9
Kasi marami silang resources.
28:33.2
Sila nakapuesto ngayon.
28:35.0
So those associated with, uh, administration, when you look down the list.
28:39.2
Yeah, but the thing is, that's the, that's the big question.
28:41.3
That's the other big question, Richard.
28:43.0
Saan ba diyan yung administration?
28:44.0
Hindi ba, sino ba siya yung kandidato ng administration?
28:48.6
Uh, wala, parang pala kandidato yung ma-administrate sa prime minister.
28:52.6
I mean, I could only think about Abalos as a solid candidate.
28:55.6
Yeah, Abalos, yeah, that's possible.
28:57.4
But, you know, he's at the, you know, he's at the end of the list, no?
29:01.2
When you look at the top, yeah, medyo, yeah.
29:04.7
Unless Erwin sides with the admin, unless Erwin explicitly, um, come, I mean, you could
29:11.6
have a situation of Ben being in the campaign of the administration.
29:13.8
You could have a situation of Ben being in the campaign of Duterte camp, and then Erwin
29:16.5
on the other side.
29:17.3
That would be an interesting opposition also in that sense, no?
29:19.8
Between two brothers, di ba?
29:21.3
Yeah, but right now, they're not gonna be, there's no, um, Estrada, Ejercito sort of
29:26.4
situation like we had in 2019.
29:27.9
Both of them lost.
29:28.8
I think tama, no?
29:31.0
Then, number 14 si JV ata nun, if I'm not mistaken.
29:37.6
So, so, they're in the top five, eh.
29:40.2
Which is kind of, you know, they eat into each other, splitting the vote.
29:43.6
But they're very competitive.
29:45.8
And with those numbers, you're almost assured, eh.
29:47.9
Eh, assured na, winning, ah, with those numbers.
29:50.9
It doesn't matter whether you top the race, kasi that's the other thing.
29:53.7
If you top the Senate race, it puts you in a position for the bigger conversation.
29:57.7
And if there's gonna be so many Tulfos, it's gonna be a question of who's the, who's the-
30:01.5
You know, if you're a Tulfo right now, you're already part of the conversation
30:05.4
where you have the 2028.
30:07.2
It doesn't matter if you're gonna top it or not.
30:09.1
Ah, but it looks like the way things are, they're top, they're, they're gonna top, no?
30:13.6
Yeah, but, but you have to also look at Tito Soto.
30:16.6
Ah, his numbers have actually improved.
30:20.0
It's not interesting.
30:21.0
But Bong Go is stable.
30:22.2
You know, he hardly changed.
30:24.0
Statistically stable.
30:26.9
But he's crystallizing base nila.
30:28.9
Oh, crystallizing base nila, no?
30:32.2
Bong Go has, ah, you know, these are the things we have to also look at, no?
30:35.2
How Bong Go has evolved into his, an independent candidate, no?
30:38.7
A candidate that has his own base.
30:40.8
Ah, he's not a proxy only for Digong.
30:43.2
Yes, not a proxy anymore.
30:45.2
And he's much higher than his own mentor, his boss.
30:49.5
Yeah, you know, ah, this is, ah, these are significant numbers.
30:53.8
One could also argue that the president's numbers have declined over time.
30:58.1
You know, ah, it's number.
31:00.0
But you can't say that they don't have support.
31:02.0
All three sons are within the top 15.
31:04.6
Higher than even the established, the real people who are, real candidates who want to run.
31:09.2
Ah, don't really think that Bastet and, ah, the president,
31:12.7
ah, Pulong are going to run for the Senate.
31:14.5
So when you take out all these, sorry, it's a dynamic pang list na to, no?
31:19.2
We don't even know if, ah, President Duterte is going to run for the Senate.
31:22.0
But if you take him out, you know, a lot of people will go up, no?
31:25.9
Yun nga eh, I mean, probably if Digong doesn't run,
31:28.1
then you're gonna see a bump in the numbers of the son.
31:30.3
Particularly, suspech ako if this is gonna be Bastet.
31:33.3
Obviously, people are watching that because if Bastet doesn't become the mayor next,
31:38.3
I know, then people are even wondering if Sara will slide down, which would be unprecedented.
31:43.6
But again, this is Philippine politics.
31:45.6
Anything can happen.
31:46.5
I don't want to push you too much because we're trying to keep this as data-driven as possible.
31:50.7
Can we now transition to the second part of this in terms of alignments and affiliations?
31:55.4
Because I think, Jan Solid, you're making a very important contribution.
31:59.3
So kudos to Octav for that.
32:02.0
So this is, can you see this?
32:04.0
Is this, can this be seen?
32:05.5
Again, I'm seeing the first page.
32:07.1
It says the survey 2014 results.
32:12.7
I don't know why.
32:14.0
Okay na, okay na.
32:14.9
When you, baka ulitin na lang, Prof.
32:18.3
Now, I can see this.
32:20.0
Oh, can you slide it down to just see if there's a movement?
32:24.3
Is it moving now?
32:26.4
I don't know why.
32:27.2
But kanina, nais natin na.
32:29.6
Sinasabot na tayo.
32:32.5
Yeah, but the thing is, let me try one.
32:34.0
Okay, hindi natutuwa sa mga surveys niya ah.
32:37.2
It's possible, you know.
32:40.0
I mean, I'm gonna share anyway, um, the links and all.
32:42.7
Just in case people are...
32:44.8
Can this be seen?
32:45.9
Can you move it again?
32:49.5
Yeah, can that be seen?
32:51.3
I mean, we only see a frozen, ano eh, nung first page.
32:54.5
I don't know why.
32:55.6
So, ba't kanina naayos natin eh?
32:57.6
Oo nga, you know.
32:58.8
Let me just check.
33:00.4
Ah, what's, what's going on kaya?
33:03.6
Never ko nakita yung ganun yung nag-profile.
33:08.7
Let me see lang, ano.
33:12.7
No problem, prof.
33:14.2
Um, we wanna make sure.
33:15.6
So, while we're talking, can participants can now see your application?
33:20.0
Frozen pa rin siya.
33:20.9
I don't know why.
33:22.6
Is that, is that going down?
33:27.5
But anyway, um, siguro what we can do is we can just discuss it and you just set the
33:31.1
If ever, I can just share na lang screenshots and all later on.
33:34.5
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
33:35.4
We'll, we'll, while we're talking about it, no, uh, so, our basic question was,
33:42.0
which of the following best describes your political preference?
33:46.4
And, uh, you know, um, we, we, uh, looked at the survey results, no?
33:54.8
And the survey results are this, no?
33:57.0
Um, I'm trying to see if we can still share, uh, Rich, Richard, no?
34:02.4
Do you want, I'll re-ano na lang, re-appoint you na lang as a co-
34:06.0
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
34:06.6
Or, and, and while you're doing that, maybe you can look at your side.
34:09.4
Uh, I sent the file to you anyway.
34:12.0
Oh, baka ako na lang.
34:14.5
Try, try mga double click.
34:16.3
So, while we're talking about it, so, so, we look.
34:19.2
So, first measure siguro, um, Prof, can you give us a background?
34:22.4
Why are we doing these surveys?
34:23.7
Why is this survey important?
34:25.1
Ganun na lang, siguro, the basic questions.
34:27.6
Why, why this survey?
34:28.6
Kasi I didn't see that with other survey agencies.
34:30.9
This is quite unique.
34:31.6
Yeah, actually, this was, ano, this was, uh, client driven, to be brutally honest.
34:35.7
Although, it was, uh, it was not commissioned, no?
34:39.2
Uh, client was wondering.
34:41.7
If, when we had the free question, we had a free space in our survey.
34:46.1
So, uh, he wanted to ask, you know, if, if, is, is there a way to find out partisanship,
34:52.4
As far as, uh, the political context is concerned.
34:55.6
And, uh, you know, the, the implication amongst associates there, uh, we divide along parties,
35:01.6
ideology, uh, but we're not, no?
35:04.8
So, we constructed this as an, uh, you know, a preliminary, uh, question that we want to
35:12.5
But the client was a, uh, a big part of constructing the question.
35:17.2
And, uh, the, the object is, of course, to look at political preference in general and
35:22.8
to look at how we are, um, you know, who every Filipino support at this particular time.
35:30.8
And so, we were happy to get, to generate some information.
35:36.1
Uh, it was also an attempt to test the validity of the question.
35:39.0
We, we could change the question over time.
35:41.5
Um, and so, this is the object of our, uh, probe.
35:45.4
So, uh, I hope that, uh, yeah, is that better?
35:50.0
You can just go down.
35:60.0
You, you, you may sit now, Richard.
36:07.7
Page one, Richard.
36:18.0
That should be good.
36:20.3
Interesting, uh, findings.
36:23.2
So, the basic question is, uh, are you pro-Marcos?
36:27.1
So, the, uh, the statement which best describes you is, is the, the way we, we, we ask the
36:33.6
And I support President Marcos and his administration.
36:36.6
Thirty-one percent.
36:38.2
I support the, the Duterte family and their political alliance.
36:42.0
We classify them as pro-Duterte.
36:43.8
That's twenty percent.
36:45.9
I support the opposition.
36:47.3
We, we didn't give, we didn't define the opposition to our, uh, interviewees as just
36:52.4
the liberal party.
36:53.1
We just said that, you know, this may include the left and the, the, the, the liberal party
36:58.9
or the traditional, uh, opposition.
37:01.7
But that generated a support of four percent.
37:04.8
So, but then this is quite surprising, huh?
37:07.6
Uh, twenty-nine percent.
37:09.0
We call them independents in the study.
37:11.8
I do not support the Marcos administration, the Duterte family, and the opposition.
37:16.8
Twenty-nine percent.
37:19.1
And those ambivalent, fifteen.
37:21.4
Meaning, they refused.
37:22.8
So, ang laki ng anti-system, if I can put it that way.
37:25.9
Yeah, that's right.
37:29.0
Oh, no, but this is a space where the opposition can build on.
37:33.4
Yeah, this is a space also that will be up for grabs if you're part of the Duterte alliance,
37:40.0
building, uh, the new opposition.
37:41.3
In their view, and of course, the Marcos administration was trying to solidify their
37:46.8
So, twenty-nine percent.
37:47.9
So, where is, uh, where, where, where do we locate the Marcoses, no?
37:51.5
The pro-Marcos support, no?
37:52.8
It's largely in the National Capital Region, no?
37:59.0
Uh, they're, they're not very strong at this particular time.
38:02.5
In Mindanao, seventeen percent lang sa kanila.
38:05.7
And, uh, their, their base of support is D&E.
38:10.1
So, when you go to the Duterte.
38:11.1
So, when the Duterte family support, uh, twenty percent of adult Filipinos, um, support
38:18.5
the Duterte family, uh, their base, their base is really Mindanao, fifty-three.
38:22.8
You can see naman, no?
38:24.5
So, talagang may, ano sila, may hold sila sa lugar na yan.
38:28.6
And probably the, the, the low numbers in Mindanao is because of the feud, right?
38:35.1
I mean, we can see that in, in, for instance, the other side survey on the presidential balls.
38:39.9
Ang baba lahat dun sa Mindanao.
38:41.6
And then, dun sa preference also for the president, laki ng baksak ni Marcos sa Mindanao.
38:46.8
You're correct, Richard.
38:47.7
Kasi, um, yung ibang probes natin on trust and approval, bumagsak talaga yung support
38:54.9
sa Mindanao, kaala kay President Marcos.
38:57.8
So, it's consistent, no?
38:59.9
And, and when you look at the, the base of support, it's really Class E.
39:06.7
So, for the twenty-nine percent, which is significant.
39:10.5
Both of them are thirty percent.
39:12.7
So, yung mga sa Pilinla is almost identical.
39:16.8
Pero mas malaki si, yung pro-Marcos group sa Class D.
39:19.9
Which is the big chunk of higher.
39:21.7
Which is fifty-five to sixty percent.
39:22.5
Or voting population.
39:24.7
So, even of the population in general, adult Filipino population.
39:30.1
So, those who do not support is still a huge chunk, no?
39:33.4
And, uh, those who refuse to, um, uh, you know, who are ambivalent.
39:40.6
So, the twenty-nine percent, we, we classify them as independents.
39:45.0
And, and, and you'll know, you'll notice the base of support.
39:47.1
Can you go down to the last three slides?
39:50.0
It's, it's just at the bottom.
39:53.1
Look, like, we can, if, can you put, uh, yeah.
39:57.1
Okay ka pala sa Zoom.
40:00.7
Partner pala tayo.
40:01.7
Pwede tayo partner sa presentation.
40:04.9
Ako yung research assistant.
40:07.0
Gawin niyo na lang ako sa, no?
40:10.1
But look at these numbers.
40:11.4
But I, I, is this useful?
40:13.1
You look at the male.
40:14.3
The demographics of working.
40:17.9
So, uh, at the, the, this is how it's spread at, uh, you know, the regional.
40:21.9
We know that already.
40:22.7
But urban-rural, it's almost the same.
40:24.9
For the Marcos vote.
40:26.4
The pro-Marcos, uh, support, not vote, but support.
40:30.4
Uh, male-female, almost the same.
40:33.0
But look at the age group.
40:35.8
Um, they're, they're pretty balanced.
40:38.9
They're very strong.
40:39.7
They're, well-supported in the critical, uh, 18 to, uh, uh, 35 range.
40:46.5
So that's where, uh, there's lots of support.
40:49.6
And you'll be surprised, no?
40:51.0
55 to 64, ito yung Marcos, ano, maybes, no?
40:55.5
Ito yung, uh, hindi pa naman ako dito sa age group na ito, pero alam mo yun, uh, yeah.
41:06.3
But, but, I, I think interesting yung sa education, mga, yung, actually, ito, ito, ito, ito, ito,
41:09.6
Ito yung educational background ng, ng, uh, Marcos supporter, no?
41:15.2
So, uh, you'll see that, uh, big chunk of them are from high school vocational.
41:21.4
Uh, and interesting but not surprising, Iglesia Ni Cristo is a big, you know, when you look
41:26.4
at the religious breakdown, uh, 55% of the, and the, and the, and then, of course, you're,
41:32.9
you're, ano, you're, you look at the ethnic support, no?
41:37.2
Uh, it's, it's basically Ilocano, Tagalog.
41:43.2
But there's a very small, there's a very strong Cebuano support pa rin.
41:46.0
Twenty-two percent.
41:49.0
Wasn't it found by an Ilocano?
41:51.0
I was just reading lang about Isabella de los Reyes and then Agli pa yan.
41:53.0
But, but, but big chunks there are Roman Catholic, Islam.
41:54.0
So, meaning in the terms of the actual percentage that they have as far as the population is
42:07.0
Very interesting.
42:09.0
Interesting, nga.
42:10.0
But you look at the, the next slide, which is the, the, the family, or, yeah, okay.
42:18.0
So, yeah, it, it, it, you'll, you'll notice their, the support is very different as far
42:24.6
as the age groups are concerned.
42:28.0
Um, yeah, the, the, the big supporters are Islam, no?
42:34.0
Sixty-six percent.
42:35.0
So, uh, when you look at the religious support, no?
42:37.0
Very interesting.
42:38.0
They're the Mindanao factor there.
42:39.0
Yeah, the Mindanao factor.
42:41.0
So, Mindanao is also their base of support.
42:42.0
And, uh, Visaya, no?
42:43.0
Forty-one percent.
42:45.0
What's the number?
42:46.0
One percent na Ilocano.
42:48.0
Which I wonder, sino tong one percent na may Ilocano toto?
42:49.0
I'm gonna research them.
42:50.0
Pagkakot kayo sa akin.
42:51.0
Uwi ako ng bagay soon.
43:12.0
Anyway, uh, so this is a snapshot.
43:14.0
This is a very, very helpful, uh, uh, Professor Ryan.
43:16.8
The meetin reinforces the demographics we know about these two political families
43:24.7
and why they were also very, uh, unbeatable together.
43:30.0
Um, meaning, you know, you can understand their
43:33.9
If they're united, they can really, uh, express themselves.
43:37.0
there will be a lot of continuity as far as
43:38.9
government and politics is concerned, no?
43:41.1
Interesting. But then, they're
43:42.3
bifurcated, not just
43:44.9
around personalities
43:46.6
and personal interests, but also along
43:48.9
policy lines. We also know that, di ba?
43:53.1
become the great divide
43:54.2
between the families, no? One is
43:56.8
very supportive of China,
43:58.7
the other one is not
44:00.7
as supportive, no?
44:04.5
is that yours or mine?
44:07.9
that probably is yours, bro.
44:11.9
very important because, honestly, for
44:13.9
me, the big thing before we talk about the third part,
44:16.1
independence, is, and the reason why
44:17.8
I find it very interesting, aside from
44:19.9
the fact na meron mga sub-demographics,
44:26.7
Kasi kung titignan mo dito,
44:28.4
almost kalahatan ng mga voters
44:30.2
are either undecided, independent,
44:32.5
or medyo traditional
44:33.9
opposition, right?
44:36.0
Sinama mo yung dalawa, 31 plus 20,
44:38.3
that's just 51%. So,
44:40.3
roughly half of the voters are
44:42.4
up for grabs, right? In a sense, for
44:44.4
an order to go to Dirt and Marcos.
44:46.6
This is huge. This is
44:48.4
actually very important if you look at it that way.
44:50.8
Assuming someone consolidates
44:52.8
them into a third force.
44:55.1
If you're running a campaign
44:56.6
for the midterms, this is
44:58.6
important to take note of.
45:01.0
But this is not surprising.
45:02.6
They're not very strong. The administration
45:04.5
is not very strong.
45:08.7
But the thing is, they can consolidate.
45:11.1
When you look at the independents,
45:12.7
a lot of them are still in balance
45:14.9
with Zon Visayas.
45:17.6
That's up for grabs.
45:20.8
So, this is something
45:23.0
that the administration, and even
45:24.7
the opposition, whoever
45:25.9
eventually becomes,
45:28.6
or takes control of it,
45:30.8
however it evolves,
45:33.4
will have to work on.
45:36.8
If you put that plus those who did not respond,
45:40.3
that's around 45%
45:44.3
I find this very, very helpful.
45:46.8
Thank you so much.
45:48.8
I'll just call you Ranjit na lang.
45:50.9
We want to have you more regular.
45:52.7
At least on a first-name basis.
45:55.4
this is very, very helpful.
45:58.9
Obviously, I found nothing
46:00.8
shocking in terms of numbers,
46:02.3
except the 1%. Bakit may 1%
46:06.0
I'm just kidding.
46:09.0
I was just in Baguio last week
46:11.1
before I flew into the US.
46:13.3
Ang dami mga bumpers.
46:14.5
Where are you now?
46:16.3
I'm in Berkeley now.
46:23.6
It's 9pm right now.
46:25.6
Thank you so much for agreeing to morning
46:29.9
Because later this week, we're going to have
46:31.3
Senator Trillianis back again also on our show.
46:35.2
So that's going to be like,
46:37.3
So medyo, you're going to see more
46:38.3
sabog version of me.
46:40.9
5am is not my time talaga eh.
46:43.1
But thank you so much for this.
46:45.9
So Professor, can we look at the big picture now?
46:48.2
And also dito sa independence.
46:49.8
What is your read dito sa independence?
46:51.3
Because I also find this very interesting.
46:55.5
Filipinos who are still,
47:00.0
they may have actually
47:04.0
I mean, the question is,
47:07.9
it still needs a lot of improvement as far as
47:11.1
medyo generic pa siya.
47:15.2
improve this question over time.
47:20.3
this was not developed by Octave.
47:22.8
So the client-based,
47:23.9
the client suggested this question.
47:26.4
And we just ran it for them.
47:31.0
Operationalize lang kayo.
47:33.2
But it's slight improvements
47:35.0
to improve the system.
47:35.8
To improve the validity of the question.
47:38.2
we can break this down ideologically.
47:41.2
We try to find out.
47:42.2
A lot of people are out there
47:44.2
who don't see the administration
47:45.7
or the groups that they want to support.
47:50.7
And that's also good, right?
47:52.7
That the company is not bifurcated by just two families.
47:56.4
Although a big chunk of it is,
47:59.1
I don't know, more than 50% are already basically,
48:02.4
I mean, the pro-Marcos or pro-Detente.
48:04.4
But a big chunk is still open.
48:05.8
And still looking for that group they want to support.
48:10.8
Or they have support.
48:13.3
But we also included the opposition kasi.
48:17.0
And so they don't see the Liberal Party
48:20.4
or the traditional opposition
48:22.2
as the group they want to support.
48:25.5
So that's also good that we,
48:27.7
you know, our own,
48:29.5
but one could also argue there's a divide.
48:31.7
There's a divide between those who have already affiliations
48:34.1
and those who are,
48:35.8
or those who do not.
48:36.8
What's relevant for me here is that
48:39.8
it reaffirms all these old images of Philippine government and politics.
48:44.8
It's very personal.
48:46.8
That our divides are along ethnic cleavages.
48:50.8
And that, you know, the weakness of the party system,
48:55.8
the non-existence of it,
48:57.8
has not disciplined our politics.
48:59.8
It has made our politics ill-disciplined
49:01.8
around all this parochialism and personalism.
49:05.8
But if we had stronger parties,
49:08.8
we could see ourselves be divided along ideas,
49:15.8
instead of just families.
49:17.8
But I think a lot of the data reaffirms all our own,
49:22.8
consistent images of how changed this Philippine politics seems to be.
49:27.8
there's hope in the 29 and the 40% who don't have a position yet.
49:31.8
That's a huge number.
49:34.8
I'm more optimistic than you.
49:35.8
Cautiously more optimistic in a sense that
49:37.8
the two surveys that we discussed today
49:40.8
are two sides of the picture, right?
49:42.8
One side is the continuity part,
49:44.8
particularly continuity in terms of appeal of the Tulfos and Dutertes
49:48.8
and the whole macho populist kind of appeal.
49:52.8
I think both of us argued that
49:53.8
forget about differences between Dutertes and Tulfos.
49:55.8
The Tulfo brothers themselves are extremely different from each other, right?
49:58.8
I have interviewed Raffi,
50:00.8
two very different individuals.
50:02.8
I think Raffi is much more independent so far.
50:05.8
Let's see with Erwin if he's gonna
50:07.8
hew more towards the administration.
50:09.8
And then Ben Tulfo is totally
50:10.8
different conversation, right?
50:12.8
But at the same time,
50:13.8
I think the second survey was very interesting because
50:15.8
almost half of the voters
50:17.8
were either independents or kind of anti-system or something,
50:23.8
that there's hope for change.
50:25.8
Assuming certain things are done.
50:29.8
one could construe
50:30.8
continuity and change.
50:32.8
From the picture being shown by the survey.
50:34.8
Although the data is not enough
50:36.8
to make solid arguments.
50:38.8
there's always that us
50:39.8
taking ourselves out of the survey and looking at
50:41.8
the general trajectory of Philippine politics.
50:43.8
There is a trajectory for reform.
50:46.8
There's a strong sense of continuity
50:49.8
as far as government and politics are concerned.
50:51.8
But there is always that,
50:53.8
that element of change that's happening
50:55.8
and being driven by young people,
50:57.8
by people who are progressive,
50:59.8
who align themselves along ideas.
51:05.8
democracy and development can actually happen
51:07.8
if we all work together.
51:10.8
there's always that movement there.
51:15.8
that movement will have more voice
51:22.8
we hope to see that,
51:24.8
more survey numbers in the future
51:26.8
pointing out to this progressive movement
51:29.8
taking hold of our politics.
51:32.8
thank you very much,
51:35.8
I'm a little sleepy here.
51:36.8
I'm a little sleepy.
51:37.8
Go to sleep first.
51:38.8
Sleep in preparation
51:39.8
for the Senator Trillanes interview.
51:42.8
There's so much going on.
51:43.8
I still have to write a piece
51:44.8
on the quad patrols
51:45.8
in West Philippine CNL.
51:47.8
thank you so much,
51:49.8
This was very helpful data.
51:52.8
I'm going to refer this
51:54.8
in future lectures,
51:58.8
thank you so much,
52:00.8
For the discussions and writings.
52:01.8
We hope to have you again
52:03.8
in the near future
52:05.8
as more interesting surveys,
52:09.8
designed surveys come in
52:11.8
I can see you're hedging a little bit
52:13.8
in a social scientist way.
52:15.8
I want to jump into conclusions.
52:19.8
at least we have something
52:21.8
before we can make a
52:23.8
or more than hopefully conjectural
52:24.8
political analysis.
52:25.8
Thank you very much,
52:26.8
Professor Ranjit Rai
52:27.8
from OCTA Research
52:29.8
University of Philadelphia
52:30.8
Philippines Diliman
52:31.8
Total Science Department
52:33.8
Thank you, Richard.
52:35.8
thank you to all those
52:36.8
who watched today's podcast.
52:39.8
and have a good day,
