SEN. TRILLANES ON WEST PHILIPPINE SEA, DUTERTE, TULFOS & OPPOSITION
* AI ("Artificial Intelligence") subtitles on Tagalog.com are generated using "Whisper" by OpenAI (the same company that created ChatGPT and DallE2). Results and accuracy may vary.
* The subtitles do include errors occasionally and should only be used as a tool to help with your listening practice.
* You can request this website to create a transcript for a video if one doesn't already exist by clicking the "Request AI Subtitles" button below a video. Transcribing usually takes 30-40% of the length of a video to complete if there are no other videos in
the queue. For example, a 21 minute video will take 7-8 minutes to transcribe.
* Running a super fast cloud GPU server to do these transcriptions does cost money. If you have the desire and financial ability, consider
becoming a patron
to support these video transcriptions, and the other tools and apps built by Tagalog.com
00:00.0
All right. Maligayang araw at gabi wherever you are in the world. Thank you so much for joining us for this latest episode. Of course, medyo busy tayo this week. We had Justice Carpio a bit earlier and then of course we had the head of Opta Research. Andami mga bagay na pinag-usapan natin with our great guest today. We have with us again, former Senator Antonio Trillanes. Thank you very much, Senator, for joining us.
00:23.2
Thank you very much, Richard, for inviting me again.
00:27.1
As always, I'm sure many people are looking forward to the conversation we're going to have kasi medyo wide-ranging ang discussions natin.
00:35.2
And of course, more important than that, medyo very forthright and straight to the point tayo.
00:41.1
First of all, pag-usapan natin itong gentleman's agreement.
00:43.8
Earlier, the discussion with Justice Carpio and others on this.
00:47.1
Ano ba ito? Katraidoran ba ito? Ano ba nangyari?
00:49.6
What is your understanding of gentleman's agreement and why one spokesman of Duterte will say this,
00:54.2
the other spokesman of Duterte will say that.
00:56.4
Dami mga contradictory statements coming out.
00:58.8
Sinapaniwala natin China or si Panelo or si Harry Roque?
01:03.0
What's going on there?
01:04.9
Well, una-una, yung gentleman's agreement as they describe it.
01:09.3
I think it's one form of diplomatic engagement.
01:16.0
So ito kasi between heads of state.
01:19.4
So there's nothing wrong with that per se,
01:22.5
except dapat kung ikaw head of state ka.
01:26.4
In this case, si Duterte, dapat tinutulak mo at pinoproteksyonan mo yung interest ng bansa mo.
01:33.0
But the details of that agreement as articulated by Harry Roque,
01:39.4
elapsided yun against the interest of the country.
01:43.4
Kasi nga, di ba, pag pinagbabawalan mo yung repair ng barko natin,
01:49.5
edi masisira yun.
01:50.5
Remember, commissioned ship pa siya.
01:55.6
At walang pwedeng pumigil sa atin sa pag-repair ng barko natin,
02:02.1
which is technically commissioned vessel of the Philippine Navy pa rin.
02:08.2
Yun ang naging problema dyan.
02:10.5
Now, kung sino papaniwalaan,
02:12.6
I believe, based on the sequence of events,
02:18.0
naglabas yung China about the secret deal with the Duterte administration,
02:23.3
tapos sinabi rin nung DFA na yun daw ang sinasabi na lumalabas,
02:29.4
the deal with the Duterte administration.
02:31.1
Then lumabas si Harry Roque,
02:33.7
dinitalya niya kung ano yung mga ano nun,
02:38.9
kung ano nilalaman ng secret deal na yun.
02:42.7
So in this case, yun na, nabuo na yung storya.
02:45.8
Ngayon itong belated appearance ni Panelo,
02:49.1
ano ito? Crisis management na ito?
02:52.0
Peer crisis management.
02:55.0
You can extract that or strike that out from the public discourse yung kay Panelo.
03:04.2
At itong kay Duterte, di ba dapat siya naman yung magsasalita dyan.
03:11.2
Ngayon titignan natin, ano ba?
03:14.1
Is it really parang unbelievable or out of character for Mr. Duterte
03:23.3
to make such a gentleman's agreement na lopsided against the interest of the country?
03:28.7
No, I don't think so.
03:30.6
Dahil nakita naman natin, all six years ni Duterte talagang sinasabi niya,
03:37.3
ang mga sinasabi niya na statements publicly are really favoring China.
03:44.0
Sinasabi niya na nasasama siya sa ideological flow ng China.
03:50.8
Ideological flow, yeah.
03:52.9
Then sabi niya gawin na lang probinsya ng China yung Pilipinas, di ba?
04:00.2
Tapos nakita mo, dinedefend niya si Xi Jinping, mahal na mahal daw niya,
04:04.9
tinitira niya yung Western powers.
04:06.6
So consistent itong nilabas na detalya ni Harry Roque
04:11.0
doon sa mga previous public pronouncements ni Duterte
04:14.9
na talagang parang ano siya eh, vassal state ng China.
04:22.9
pinakang problema dito.
04:25.7
Now, as it is, as articulated, talagang katraiduran yun
04:31.3
in the sense na hindi niya pinaglaban yung interest ng Pilipinas.
04:37.6
Kung hindi, binigay pa niya, no?
04:40.7
At binigyan niya ng basbas ng presidente ng Pilipinas.
04:44.8
Now, how different is that with the 2012 backchannel talks nung panahon ni Pinoy?
04:50.6
So yung circumstances kasi noon.
04:52.9
Yung circumstances noon, talagang yung status ko was different.
04:59.4
April 8, nagkaroon ng standoff, nagswarm yung mga Chinese vessels,
05:05.4
numbering almost a hundred.
05:07.3
We had three Philippine vessels there.
05:09.8
Mainit na mainit yung tensyon noon to the point na muntit na magkaputukan.
05:14.8
So when I was appointed as the backchannel negotiator a month after,
05:22.9
Mainit na yung tensyon.
05:24.6
And the mission was to de-escalate the situation.
05:28.3
Kung baga, as it is, doon sa status ko at that time,
05:32.3
dehado tayo kasi they were swarming inside and outside the Scarborough Shoal.
05:38.3
Tapos sa atin, tatlo lang yung vessels natin.
05:40.7
Tapos mainit yung tensyon.
05:42.4
So the mission was to de-escalate the tension
05:44.8
and to reduce the number of ships doon sa Scarborough Shoal.
05:49.5
And through the three-month,
05:52.9
almost all, except for the three na nasa labas ng Shoal.
06:05.2
Wala tayong binigay, even an inch of our territory.
06:09.2
Maliwanag din na wala pa silang reclamation dyan sa Scarborough.
06:15.9
Kung baga, wala sila doon.
06:20.6
Walang Chinese vessels inside.
06:22.9
So nagawa yung mission.
06:25.0
Now, I think ito yung mistake ng China.
06:30.3
They thought by leaving the three ships there,
06:34.2
parang they would be flexing their masses.
06:38.9
Na tipong, hindi nyo pa rin kami totally, kasi may naiwan dito.
06:42.7
Kahit umalis sila.
06:45.7
At the end of the day, kung sa inyo yan, ba't kayo umalis?
06:48.4
It's because of the negotiations.
06:51.3
Pero nung hindi sila umalis,
06:52.9
si Pinoy, finailan sila ng arbitration case, which we won.
07:00.6
And because of that victory,
07:04.2
perpetually negated na sa international community yung kanilang nine-dash line.
07:10.7
So every time they will raise it up,
07:13.7
meron ng pang-contra noon na may official decision na yung arbitral tribunal.
07:20.5
So I believe yun yung mistake nila.
07:22.9
Because kung inalis nila yung tatlo na yun,
07:26.7
eh dapat hindi magpa-file si Pinoy.
07:29.3
Kasi bumalik sa status quo.
07:31.9
And that's the result of the backchannel negotiations.
07:35.5
Kumbaga, diplomatic approach, pero nilaban natin yung interest.
07:40.1
Now, let me just point out, Richard, yung difference between the negotiations then and the negotiations now.
07:47.8
Back then, we were dealing with President Hu Jintao.
07:55.4
Now, they're dealing with President Xi Jinping.
07:58.8
Now, there is a difference in terms of foreign policy nung time na yun at nung time ngayon.
08:05.2
Nung time na yun, hindi pa sila aggressive in expanding.
08:11.4
Ano pa lang, yung Hu Jintao administration was basically an extension of the Deng Xiaoping
08:26.9
rights, peaceful development, all of that.
08:30.0
Peaceful rights, yeah.
08:31.4
And economic domination.
08:36.6
Pero nagbago yun.
08:38.0
Kasi nga, si Jinping na yung nag-approach.
08:42.0
nagtataka kasi sila,
08:47.1
nanalo nung 2012 sa negotiations,
08:53.9
Yan yung nakita natin na isang ano nun.
08:56.9
Tapos, ang critical element dito,
08:59.9
doon sa mga panahon na yun,
09:05.9
November, incidentally, nagko-coincide dun sa transition of power sa US and sa China.
09:14.9
Sa US, nagkakaroon sila election nun,
09:17.9
which Obama eventually won.
09:27.9
At papalitan na si,
09:31.9
And may mga pumapalit nun,
09:33.9
may mga pumupustura nun,
09:35.9
yung grupo nila, Bo Xilai,
09:39.9
to, what's this, get in the way of the
09:48.9
So, nung time na yun, ang attitude din ng Beijing,
09:51.9
is to de-escalate.
09:54.9
Hindi pa sila ano eh.
09:56.9
Hindi pa solid yung kanilang transition of power.
10:03.9
Kaya, ganun yung circumstances nun.
10:06.9
Kaya dapat maintindihan natin na
10:09.9
nagbabago yung context niyan
10:13.9
Depende dun sa mga nangyayari nung mga panahon na yun.
10:17.9
So, just to be clear about this,
10:20.9
Senator Trillanes,
10:22.9
what you're saying here is that,
10:24.9
while there is a point to diplomacy,
10:26.9
and you have to be clear about your red lines,
10:28.9
it's also important to keep in mind, sinong kausap mo,
10:31.9
anong willingness, openness sila,
10:33.9
to any kind of compromise.
10:34.9
And of course, as you correctly pointed out,
10:36.9
by December 2013,
10:39.9
literally six, seven months after
10:41.9
Xi Jinping consolidates power,
10:42.9
that's where nagsimula yung reclamation.
10:44.9
And with inferiority of the militarization,
10:47.9
and now what I call militiaization,
10:49.9
this deployment, itong mga armada.
10:51.9
So, what you're arguing is that,
10:53.9
back then, because you were dealing with a much more,
10:55.9
I would say, moderate administration,
10:58.9
on a less, let's say, dictatorial regime,
11:02.9
you felt that there is a sound basis to try to
11:05.9
defuse a naval standoff.
11:07.9
Very serious situation back then.
11:09.9
While you're arguing that sa panonidigong,
11:11.9
medyo mas mahirap kausap itong China neto.
11:15.9
So, diplomacy is less about compromise,
11:17.9
but more about imposing their will on the Philippines.
11:20.9
Just to be clear about this,
11:22.9
the Cayetano term in the Department of Foreign Affairs,
11:28.9
it coincided with the so-called,
11:30.9
at least, three-nosed red line nila,
11:34.9
which is no militarization or reclamation
11:37.9
sa Scarborough Shoal,
11:38.9
no unilateral development of resources
11:41.9
sa U.S. Philippines sa ating exclusive economic zone,
11:44.9
and pangatlo sabi nila,
11:45.9
no forcible expulsion
11:48.9
I'm just trying to be fair also to them
11:49.9
because this is not officially
11:50.9
what Cayetano said.
11:52.9
But can you just clarify to us
11:53.9
why yung sinasabing status ko
11:59.9
is inherently inimical to our national interest
12:02.9
or contrary to our national interest,
12:03.9
as the DFA put it?
12:04.9
Can you explain to us the logistics of that?
12:07.9
If hindi natin na-fortify itong
12:09.9
PRP-Sierra Madre,
12:11.9
how is that against our national interest?
12:13.9
Para lang doon sa mga iba na mukhang hindi nila alam
12:15.9
yung logistical realities on the ground.
12:18.9
Just for context,
12:22.9
meron tayong nine islands
12:26.9
or formations or reefs na in-occupy.
12:30.9
Then kasama na dyan yung Ayungin.
12:34.9
Yung Ayungin through the PRP-Sierra Madre.
12:38.9
So yung status ko nung rotation
12:40.9
sa Pag-Asa and other outposts,
12:44.9
walang problema doon.
12:46.9
Pero kung ipe-prevent mo yung pag-repair
12:50.9
ng PRP-Sierra Madre,
12:53.9
eh detrimental to our interest yun.
12:55.9
Kasi nga, ano na siya eh,
12:57.9
dilapidated na yung barko
13:01.9
at pagka hindi yan na-repair
13:05.9
ng maayos, eh talagang ano na yan,
13:09.9
baka isang typhoon na lang yan,
13:11.9
it would be swept away.
13:13.9
Pagka nawala yan dyan,
13:15.9
therefore, pwede na nilang dapaan niyang Ayungin na yan
13:19.9
to prevent yung outpost.
13:22.9
Ngayon, ilalagay lang natin yung history niyan.
13:25.9
Bakit ba natin sinadsad yan?
13:27.9
Sinadsad natin yan in response
13:29.9
doon sa pagkuhan nila ng mischief reef.
13:33.9
Diba, mischief reef.
13:35.9
Una, naglagay sila ng fisherman's shelter.
13:40.9
Tapos eventually, nilagyan na nila ng base.
13:44.9
So in response, ito ngayon,
13:47.9
yung Arab administration,
13:49.9
nagsadsad sila ng BRP Sierra Madre.
13:51.9
I was still in the Navy then,
13:53.9
kaya alam ko yung surrounding circumstances noon.
13:58.9
Maraming mga options na nilatag noon
14:02.9
in response doon sa ginawa nila sa mischief reef.
14:06.9
Pero ultimately, they ended up with deliberately,
14:10.9
what's this, running aground.
14:13.9
Dito ang BRP Sierra Madre.
14:15.9
Pero ang nakita ko lang na bago nito,
14:18.9
noon na yung rotation, mga Navy ano yan,
14:21.9
personnel lang nandiyan dyan, may officer pa.
14:24.9
So yung maintenance ng barko, ano yan eh?
14:27.9
Inherent yan sa Philippine Navy personnel.
14:31.9
Yung pagre-repair ng deck,
14:33.9
pag-maintain ng naval guns,
14:35.9
yung communications equipment, etc.
14:37.9
But then, during the GMA administration,
14:41.9
they didn't do anything.
14:42.9
They decided, I don't know kung sinong leaders noon,
14:48.9
na they decided palitan yung Navy personnel
14:52.9
ng mga Marine personnel.
14:54.9
Yung Marines, ano yan sila sa, sabi ko nga,
14:58.9
sa digmaan, maasahan mo sila.
15:01.9
But they don't have any idea
15:04.9
on how to maintain a Navy ship.
15:07.9
So, simula noon, wala na, napabayaan na.
15:10.9
Kasi nung Navy pa lang yung nandod doon,
15:14.9
naka-assigned doon, kahit nakasadsad siya,
15:18.9
they were operating as though this was a
15:22.9
regularly commissioned Navy ship.
15:24.9
So yung nire-repair, nire-repaint yung deck,
15:28.9
nakinakalawang, ano siya?
15:31.9
As thorough yung maintenance niya as the ships
15:34.9
na nandod doon sa Cavitan Naval Base.
15:37.9
Pero nung tinanggal na, ito na ngayon.
15:39.9
Na dilapidated na talaga siya, napapabayaan na siya.
15:43.9
Kaya ang initial suggestion ko diyan,
15:46.9
mag-redeploy tayo ng Navy personnel diyan,
15:50.9
yung mga bosom smith rating na tinatawag namin,
15:53.9
those who are adept at maintaining the deck,
15:59.9
So kaya nilang i-repair yan.
16:01.9
Would you believe, Richard?
16:03.9
Pagka binalik mo yan sa Navy with the proper logistical support,
16:07.9
they can bring that back.
16:08.9
They can bring that back to almost original state.
16:15.9
Kahit nandod doon sa gitna ng ayungin.
16:17.9
Kasi that's the maintenance culture of the Philippine Navy.
16:22.9
Sir, I really appreciate this.
16:24.9
Kasi parating kong iniisip.
16:26.9
I give talks doon sa iba-ibang branch ng AFP.
16:29.9
Yung isang time sa mga Marines naman, sabi niya,
16:31.9
Sir, actually kami yung nagbabantay diyan.
16:34.9
O nga no, sabi ko, yeah, Marines.
16:36.9
So I was wondering,
16:37.9
ano yung kasaysayan na yung Marines ay nandun, hindi yung Philippine Navy?
16:42.9
So thank you so much for explaining that.
16:44.9
Which I think is a perfect segue, no?
16:46.9
Because the next thing I want to talk about is itong quadrilateral patrols.
16:50.9
Finally nangyayari yan.
16:51.9
Of course, may ibang mga ex-Duterte official na senador ngayon na re-electionist
16:57.9
nagtatake credit dito sa quadrilateral summit na yan.
17:01.9
Kasi na-mention daw niya last year.
17:03.9
And I was saying, actually, minimention namin lahat yan for six, seven years.
17:06.9
Dahil lang sa dating boss mo hindi nangyayari yan.
17:09.9
So it has nothing to do with you.
17:11.9
But anyway, putting aside itong mga antics ng mga ex-Duterte official,
17:14.9
now suddenly matapang na sa West Philippine Sea.
17:17.9
Anong ambag ng itong quadrilateral patrols na yan?
17:21.9
And other things na inisip natin?
17:23.9
Because let me be very honest about this.
17:26.9
I'm a little bit annoyed with the patronizing tone
17:30.9
coming from some of the American experts and officials na tulungan natin mga Pilipino,
17:34.9
kailangan nila ng joint patrols.
17:37.9
I see the point of stronger military cooperation and all.
17:40.9
Pero katulad ng sinabi niyo kanina,
17:42.9
kayang-kayang naman natin gawin yan.
17:44.9
We can fortify this on our own.
17:46.9
Mas malalaki tayong mga barko.
17:49.9
We haven't used the best of the best yet.
17:52.9
Logistically, what is your suggestion here?
17:56.9
Should the Philippines also do joint resupply with the US?
17:59.9
Should the Americans have drones in the area all the time?
18:05.9
How can our allies be more useful?
18:07.9
And how can we make sure China doesn't harass us the way they have done?
18:10.9
Kasi ang tanong ko rin dito sa inyo, Sen. Trillanes,
18:14.9
is that for a long time, from the time you did your own backdoor negotiations with China,
18:18.9
to this gentleman's agreement, etc. under Digong,
18:21.9
China has not fired a shot.
18:23.9
I mean, as far as guns go or cannons go.
18:27.9
But itong mga water canoning nila is increasingly lethal.
18:30.9
Kaya ang suggestion ko naman sa gobyerno,
18:32.9
i-compare niyo yung punching power ni Mike Tyson dun sa water cannon.
18:37.9
So people realize, lethal ito.
18:39.9
It's almost lethal.
18:40.9
So what are the options we have?
18:42.9
What is the best way for us to assert our rights there without being harassed or do it best?
18:46.9
And at the same time, make sure we get help from our allies.
18:49.9
Okay. Maraming pwedeng gawin.
18:54.9
Pero kasi intindihan natin kung ang objective ng Marcos administration is to draw international attention.
19:00.9
Kasi talagang if you charter a wooden ship, talagang bubug-bugin siya na that way.
19:08.9
But kung gusto mo ng ano, kung ipapadala mo yung white ships mo,
19:15.9
yung Coast Guard vessels mo na medyo malaki-laki,
19:18.9
eh kaya naman i-withstand yung water cannons na yun.
19:22.9
Kasi they were designed actually to withstand mga typhoons.
19:27.9
Diba? Eh yun lang, water cannon, kaya yun.
19:29.9
Ngayon, another way is pwede kayong makipagbombahan ang water cannon doon.
19:36.9
Diba? Meron din yung Coast Guard.
19:38.9
Which is what the Japanese Coast Guard did during the Senkaku standoff.
19:44.9
Pero para na kayong mga batang nagwa-water gun battle.
19:49.9
Ano yun eh, there's nothing to be achieved there.
19:53.9
Kaya nga, depende yun sa focus or focus ng Marcos administration.
19:58.9
If it's to draw international attention kung papano nang bubuli yung China,
20:04.9
well, they were able to achieve it. Diba? They were able to achieve that.
20:08.9
Kasi kung Coast Guard vessel dadali mo dyan, kahit na ano yan eh, kayang-kaya yun, barko.
20:15.9
So hindi kagano makaka-gain ng sympathy. Diba? Pero dahil doon, diba, if it's really by design,
20:25.9
itong ngayon nakadraw ka ng mga international coalition to at least help us, support us,
20:34.9
then itong namensyo mo na quad patrols, ito naman parang ano lang ito eh.
20:40.9
This is just to give China an idea na we're not alone in this. Diba?
20:46.9
Pwede yan yung freedom of navigation patrols operations. Pero malayo yan eh.
20:53.9
Pinagpatrolya nung quad doon sa Ayungin. Now, if we would send our grey ships doon sa Ayungin to resupply,
21:06.9
ano to? Kumbaga, pwede mong gawin yan, pero kailangan kakalculate mo din ano ba yung magiging response nila.
21:15.9
So pataasin ng pataas yan. Escalate ng escalate yan. So until magkakaroon ka ng standoff,
21:21.9
then doon ka ngayon. Babalik.
21:23.9
Babalik ka doon sa situation doon sa 2012 na ano yun, depende na yun sa kausap.
21:30.9
Pero I believe the back channel approach that worked in 2012 may not work this time around
21:38.9
because again of the foreign policy shift of the Xi Jinping administration,
21:47.9
which is ano na, open expansion na.
21:53.9
Parang bordering road state na sila eh. Nawala na yung belt and road economic,
22:02.9
kumbaga they were trying to charm the whole world with their economic might. Pero ito hindi na.
22:09.9
Na tipong sige, we will stand toe to toe with you on this.
22:15.9
Now, yung sinasabi natin pwede, another approach is, and I've been suggesting this,
22:22.9
pwede naman heliborne yung operations.
22:28.9
Oo. Kahit Coast Guard ship yan, may heliborne capacity yan. So magdadala sila doon 10 minutes away.
22:36.9
Ayungin, they will drop the supplies. Then ano, eventually nga pwede tayo maglagay ng helideck dyan sa BRP Sierra Madre.
22:47.9
So yung rotation, pwede rin ganon.
22:51.9
Pwede rin ganon through that.
22:53.9
So pagka ganon kasi ginawa, eh sino yung maharangan nila? Hindi nila maharang yun.
22:59.9
If they do anything aggressive towards that helicopter at mag-crush yun, iba na yun. Problema nila yun.
23:09.9
As you mentioned nga diba?
23:10.9
Tama ng mutual defense treaty yan. Because very clear ang at least Trump and Biden na any attack on our vessels,
23:15.9
aircrafts, and soldiers and personnel will activate the mutual defense treaty.
23:20.9
And kaya nga nakita mo diba as you observed, iniskirt nila yung, they're just, dun lang sa gray zone sila.
23:31.9
Kasi anything beyond the red line, magti-trigger ng mutual defense treaty. So maraming ways to resupply.
23:41.9
As I mentioned, pwede nilang gawin itong ginagawa nila. Mag-charter kayo ng wooden ship. Mukha kang underdog talaga.
23:48.9
Pero itago mo yung mga tao mo para hindi sila masasaktan. Diba?
23:53.9
Pero gusto mo nang medyo sturdy siya or all-weather ship, yung coast guard, meron silang ganyang vessels that can withstand typhoons.
24:02.9
So kayang-kaya nila yung water cannon and they can proceed. Just ignoring the water cannons of China.
24:09.9
Or they can do what the Japanese did during the Senkaku standoff. Magpotokan sila ng water cannon. Diba?
24:17.9
Or they can do the Heliborne approach. So these are just some of the ways na pwedeng gawin without escalating or the tension by the U.S.
24:31.9
Or directly involving the Americans. Kasi feeling ko medyo ahead of time, medyo advanced mag-isip yung iba na eh dapat yung kasama yung U.S. sa resupply.
24:39.9
Ako kasi ang concern ko dito is we don't want to come off as Tutankhamen or masyadong dependent sa America.
24:45.9
Because I think we're very much capable of doing that.
24:47.9
We can do this on our own. Tamang pagsabi na medyo malalaki-laki na yung mga coast guard vessels natin. Medyo matinun na rin yung ibang warships natin.
24:54.9
So in fairness kay Pinoy and throughout the past decade, medyo nag-modernize naman yung capabilities natin.
25:01.9
But siguro the U.S., do you think they should still have an over-the-horizon presence? Maybe just of regates in the area or some drone?
25:10.9
Just in case to make the Chinese think twice. I mean they have been doing that anyway but even more explicit institutionalized.
25:17.9
They have been doing that and you know why? Because ano sila? Stakeholder sila doon sa Mutual Defense Treaty.
25:24.9
Kaya binabantayan nila yung ating resupply missions because they would be able to know firsthand kung kailangan nilang i-trigger yung Mutual Defense Treaty.
25:34.9
And yun din ang pinakang guard mo against over-aggressiveness of China to the point na may masasaktan o mamamatay na Navy personnel.
25:46.9
Now let's talk about this upcoming Trilateral Summit because one of the things that is expected to be signed shortly after Trilateral Summit is a Visiting Forces Agreement style deal with Japan.
26:01.9
There's still some debate about ano talagang meron dyan. Some say it's just a reciprocal access agreement. Officially that's going to be the term, not the Visiting Forces Agreement.
26:08.9
But there is some people are saying that down the road baka ang gusto ng Japan magkaroon din ng rotational access.
26:15.9
access to some of the bases
26:18.0
in the Philippines. Now, we can have a long conversation
26:19.8
whether papasayan sa KO party
26:21.7
given the constitutionalization in Japan.
26:24.3
But it looks that's the direction of the wind
26:27.9
on bullying us. How do you feel about
26:30.0
A, itong Japan coming
26:32.1
in potentially, having more direct cooperation
26:34.0
with us? They have done very well in terms
26:36.0
of helping us in our coast guard capability.
26:38.7
Fumia Kishida, Prime Minister of Japan
26:40.0
here in the U.S. just recently said we want to be
26:41.9
a global partner of the U.S.
26:43.5
Hindi lang robbing to the Batman in Asia.
26:45.9
But a kind of a just
26:47.8
right? We want to be part of this kind of
26:49.8
a group of people helping.
26:52.1
And then pagdating sa U.S. naman,
26:54.0
I think it's unavoidable to talk about this.
26:56.3
What do you think BBM
26:57.9
should do on the Taiwan question?
27:00.1
Because I think a big priority for
27:01.7
Biden would be to essentially
27:03.7
get the Philippines on board on
27:05.6
any Taiwan deterrence
27:07.7
strategy. And probably part
27:09.7
of that would be more American
27:11.6
presence on the northern bases natin. Hindi lang
27:13.6
kagaya ni Sabela, maybe in Batanes.
27:15.9
What is your read on also the
27:17.7
Taiwan angle and also Japan
27:19.8
coming in? And of course, Japan also has an interest
27:21.8
in Taiwan. So itong trilateral,
27:24.0
big part of that is also Taiwan as much
27:25.7
as it is West Philippine Sea.
27:29.3
correctly observed,
27:31.4
this is mainly for deterrence.
27:35.6
the Philippines' involvement
27:39.1
potential Taiwan conflict,
27:41.9
I think we are already
27:44.2
You tweet the ad,
27:50.7
mode, ando dyan na yan.
27:54.8
year, fully operational na yan.
27:57.3
Yan yun, yun yung deterrence
27:58.8
or at least it will help
28:02.7
twice or thrice before
28:04.6
crossing that red line.
28:07.0
Kasi meron nang magsusupport
28:08.7
ng any upsurge in
28:10.7
military operations
28:15.9
yung Visiting Forces Agreement with Japan,
28:18.7
so ibig sabihin, as a partner nga,
28:20.6
kasi we have to understand,
28:26.5
medyo stretched na sila,
28:29.3
some of the surface
28:33.2
Japan. So para lang
28:36.0
masanay kung magpapatrol dito,
28:39.9
protection sa kanilang
28:42.2
mga troops through this
28:43.7
Visiting Forces Agreement. And remember,
28:45.9
for Japan, bago pa lang ito
28:51.6
period niya ito. Kasi dati, diba,
28:54.3
Japan, maritime defense
28:56.3
force lang sila, so internal
28:57.8
lang sila. So ngayon lang sila
28:59.5
naglumalabas ulit.
29:02.0
Venture outside their
29:03.7
EEZ and territorial
29:05.7
waters. So kailangan nilang
29:09.6
matrain yung kanilang mga
29:15.2
operations with other
29:17.2
navies. Diba? Para malaman nila
29:19.3
yung mga replenishment at sea
29:21.5
at iba't ibang evolutions
29:28.6
Operational capacity building.
29:33.1
kailangan nila ng
29:37.0
Meron yan. Meron allied
29:38.8
tactical procedures yan.
29:41.2
Yung mga flags, yung mga
29:42.7
symbols. Kailangan nilang
29:45.1
gawin yan. Although parang
29:46.7
antiquated na yung gano'ng approach, but
29:51.3
na magkakaroon ng
29:53.0
mag-shutdown yung inyong
30:01.3
meron pa rin kayo ng basics
30:08.9
Magbe-benefit yung Japan dan, at
30:10.9
magbe-benefit din yung Pilipinas dito.
30:12.8
We're not being drawn into any
30:17.1
Ang ginagawa lang natin,
30:19.0
if somebody needs help,
30:20.9
historically, yung Pilipinas
30:22.7
nagre-responde. In the same
30:25.1
vein, nung tayo naman nangilangan
30:26.9
ng tulong, tinulungan
30:29.1
din naman tayo. Eto lang, we just
30:31.1
recently celebrated yung
30:35.2
ng kagitingan. Maalala
30:38.4
na-occupy na tayo ng Japan,
30:46.4
the Philippines and go direct to
30:48.6
the islands closer
30:52.3
then, it was through the
30:58.6
Douglas MacArthur na tipong,
31:00.6
teka, kinumit natin na palayain
31:02.8
yung mga Pilipino.
31:06.4
Along with Australians.
31:07.8
Along with Australians and New Zealanders,
31:10.8
et cetera. Basta tinulungan tayo.
31:14.5
ganun lang yun. That's how
31:19.5
Hindi yung parang
31:20.6
ayaw mo conflict avoidance ka.
31:23.3
Therefore, hindi ka sasama
31:25.0
sa mga kahit na anong
31:26.2
pero pagka ikaw nangailangan ng tulong,
31:29.7
paano kang ngayon sasaklolo?
31:31.2
Diba? So, ganun lang yun.
31:32.9
And hopefully, hindi tayo darating doon
31:34.9
precisely. Pag nakita
31:36.9
nung China na, teka,
31:38.9
it's not going to be a quick
31:41.0
war that you anticipate.
31:43.0
It's going to be,
31:53.4
specific, son, that I completely agree with you,
31:56.3
Senator, in the sense that
31:57.4
hindi pwede yung hingi lang tayo nang hingi.
31:59.3
It's a give and take relationship.
32:01.9
Having said that, maybe
32:03.1
we have a slight divergence of opinion here.
32:05.5
Ako naman, ang issue ko lang
32:07.5
kasi dito is, you know, I look at
32:09.5
Jordan, Egypt, Pakistan,
32:11.6
never mind Israel or Ukraine.
32:13.4
All of these countries have,
32:17.2
significant amount of
32:18.9
very advanced American weapon systems.
32:21.7
Egypt, for instance, or even
32:23.5
Jordan, they all have F-16
32:27.7
Again, I don't know,
32:29.2
I don't want to come out like mendicant or something like that,
32:32.7
thing ko is, what should Marcos push for
32:35.5
here? Should they push for some
32:37.4
kasi wala pa tayong mga multi-role
32:39.5
vessels, sorry, multi-role
32:41.2
fighters and the warships
32:43.5
na we have the modern one na napuntahan
32:45.4
kung BRP Rizal, mga ganun. Purong Korean
32:47.5
made yan, diba? Some of the strategic
32:49.4
weapon systems we're getting are Indian.
32:51.2
The Brahmos, which has Russian derivative,
32:53.4
Soviet derivative. Ang tanong ko
32:55.6
dito is, should BBM
32:57.2
aggressively push for Americans to
32:59.6
give us much better terms
33:01.5
for some of the things that we really need
33:03.6
para hindi lang tayo hanggang nagbibigay
33:05.5
lang ng basing access, hindi lang rentier
33:08.9
should be also a capable ally which can
33:11.5
project power and help in international
33:13.5
public goods provision,
33:15.5
anti-piracy, etc.
33:17.2
How much we should focus on also
33:19.6
getting Japan and US to accelerate
33:21.3
our AFP modernization, which we
33:23.5
discussed in the last meeting, yung
33:24.9
36 billion dollar 10-year program?
33:29.7
agree with you, Richard, on that
33:31.5
one. Hindi naman pwedeng
33:33.6
masadong bargain,
33:37.0
na kailangan din natin
33:39.5
yung tulong. Mutual itong
33:41.0
tulungan natin, pero,
33:43.5
kung gusto nyo mas makatulong kami
33:45.8
ng mas maayos, edi
33:47.8
iyaano nyo, kumagay
33:49.7
upgrade nila yung ating
33:51.0
weapon systems. Alam mong problema lang kasi
33:57.7
when I was dealing
34:01.0
US government officials in Washington
34:04.8
pagiging compromise nung
34:07.5
panahon ni Duterte
34:08.7
na if you're entrusted
34:13.5
US military weapon systems.
34:15.3
Pagpapunta sa China.
34:18.1
Kaya yun yung issue
34:22.1
mabigat kasi yung the countries that you
34:24.5
mentioned, may mga
34:26.3
nagkaroon sila ng access sa mga
34:28.3
US weapon systems because
34:30.3
they have already demonstrated na
34:33.7
safeguard mechanisms na hindi
34:35.9
basta-basta ma-compromise
34:38.6
yung mga military secrets sila.
34:43.5
pero tama ka yung mga basic platforms
34:47.1
mahasalang yung mga
34:50.2
AFP personnel natin
34:52.5
dun sa mga more modern
34:55.9
Sabi ko nga, kahit sa
34:57.5
Navy, yung mga dinikomission nila
34:59.9
mga Oliver Hazard
35:01.8
Perry class na frigates,
35:04.0
ano yun? Pwedeng lagyan ng
35:05.6
platforms? In the same way na
35:07.5
binigay nila sa Taiwan, di ba?
35:12.1
missile system. So wala na.
35:13.5
Wala na po compromise sa
35:14.5
weapon systems nila pero
35:16.9
naano natin? Nagkakaroon tayo
35:21.0
para to train yung ating
35:23.3
mga personnel. Yung
35:25.3
mga ano rin, yung sinasabi mga
35:27.3
multi-role fighters
35:31.6
yung mga piloto natin. Anyway,
35:33.8
dito na tayo yung mga Korean
35:35.2
jet fighters. Maganda yan
35:37.3
pero parang entry level yan.
35:39.0
O, transitional talaga eh.
35:43.5
Pero, di ba? Dito na tayo kung
35:45.5
medyo maganda-gandang
35:48.3
bakbakan. Eh, kahit
35:50.3
pa paano. Hindi naman
35:51.9
kawawa-kawawa yung mga piloto natin.
35:54.4
So, pwedeng i-demand yan
35:57.1
Marcos administration.
36:00.1
But I think, pinipaste naman nila.
36:02.2
I think eventually they will get there.
36:05.6
remember, this situation
36:08.1
that we're in was
36:10.0
not planned from the
36:13.5
Opo ni President Marcos.
36:15.7
Kung hindi, it was forced
36:17.5
on him by the circumstances
36:19.4
because ipinush away
36:21.6
siya ng China, basically.
36:23.4
Kaya, ito lang ngayon. They're doing things
36:27.0
kahit pa paano, nakakahabol
36:29.5
and eventually, yun na nga.
36:31.3
Yung parity naman. Huwag naman
36:33.3
yung tulungan nyo kami.
36:35.5
Sabi nga doon sa ano, di ba?
36:36.7
Help me, help you.
36:39.4
Kay Tom Cruz at siya kasi
36:42.1
Help me, help you.
36:46.6
That's one of my favorite expressions, right?
36:48.4
Kaya, you want the Philippines
36:49.8
not to be just like a bigay ng basing
36:51.6
agreement, mga ganon. You know, we want us
36:53.7
to be able to also project ourselves.
36:55.3
Kasi, we're increasingly getting, just last
36:57.5
one on this foreign policy before we go to the meat
36:59.6
of discussion, more Duterte and
37:01.5
ICC and your favorite, our
37:07.3
For me, kasi strategic investments, I think, is
37:09.5
also very important. So, the other week na sa
37:11.5
Germany kami, na mitin namin si Chancellor
37:13.3
Scholz, you know, he gathered some of the
37:14.9
thought leaders from the Global South, Brazil,
37:17.5
South Africa, et cetera. And one of the things
37:19.4
I said is, naintindihan ko na meron
37:21.5
kayong business interest. You know, when you go to a
37:23.3
country, Benz, BMW, whatever,
37:25.4
you're looking at events environment.
37:27.5
But at the end of the day, parang
37:29.4
talent scouting yan, di ba? Pag magaling
37:31.2
kang talent scout, hindi ka mag-invest lang
37:33.3
dun sa mga players na mature na
37:35.4
kagad. May mga players na medyo may
37:37.4
mga kulang here and there,
37:39.3
but you see a long-term
37:40.5
vision, there are long-term talents.
37:43.3
Mag-invest ka dun. And I said Philippines is kind of like
37:45.3
that in the sense that may mga kulang
37:47.4
tayo in terms of investment, environment
37:49.6
and all. But you see, all the investments
37:51.6
are going to Vietnam. You think Vietnam
37:53.5
is going to side with the West against China?
37:55.7
No, they have their own interest, right?
37:57.6
They're putting a lot of investment in Malaysia
37:59.6
whose leader, Anwar Ibrahim,
38:01.5
is like the new Duterte of ASEAN
38:03.4
in terms of lawyering for ASEAN. He was
38:05.1
here in Berkeley a few months ago and
38:07.1
saying, hindi ka makatulad ng Pilipinas.
38:09.6
We are friendly. China is a friend.
38:11.5
Don't be China-phobic. Like,
38:13.3
ito ang problema sa West.
38:14.8
They talk about shared values,
38:17.0
rules-based order, and then they put all the
38:18.8
money in countries that are, frankly,
38:21.1
a lot of them are opportunistic if not pro-China.
38:23.2
Even India. Aminin natin,
38:25.1
India is, you know, one day
38:27.0
they get warrants from Russia, one day
38:28.9
they're friendly with Biden. Those are
38:30.9
not reliable partners, to be honest about it,
38:32.9
if you want to talk about rules-based order. So,
38:35.0
para sa akin, mahalaga din na magkaroon ng strategic
38:36.9
investments in the Philippines. Kasi alam natin,
38:39.4
a lot of the propaganda
38:41.2
of the Makapili Club, diba?
38:43.3
Is, pag China tayo,
38:45.1
magkakaroon tayo ng high-speed railway
38:47.0
investment. Obviously, hindi nangyari sa panon
38:49.0
ni Digong, but they'll blame BBM for that.
38:51.7
So, I think it's important na
38:52.9
may bigay din ang mga Amerikano
38:55.1
and mga Japon. In fairness, mga Japon
38:56.9
naman, it's not like they haven't done much. They have
38:58.9
done a lot also in the Philippines. But, there has
39:00.9
to be those kind of investments, semiconductors,
39:03.9
things that make it
39:05.0
easier for BBM to say, see,
39:06.9
dito na tayo tataya. Hindi nga tayo binubuli.
39:09.2
Tinutulungan pa tayo. Bakit tayo doon sa
39:10.9
China, hihingi sila ng kapalit.
39:13.3
Halimbawa sa China, I mean, whoever thinks
39:15.4
with China, you talk nice to them, you'll get
39:17.1
everything. They don't know what they're talking about.
39:21.1
ako naman, just to
39:24.8
Marcos administration. Remember,
39:27.2
nung six years ni Duterte,
39:30.4
the investors from
39:32.9
EU, US, lahat, because of
39:35.2
the human rights violations.
39:37.5
Talagang nag-shut off
39:38.6
yung foreign direct
39:41.2
investments. Now, under the
39:43.2
new administration, inobserbahan
39:45.6
nila eh. Ano ba ito? Is this
39:47.3
the continuation of the Duterte
39:49.2
administration? Nung nakikita nilang
39:51.4
uy, medyo okay, medyo
39:55.4
year, they decided
39:56.9
na tipong, I think
39:59.3
it's safe now. Kumaga, it's a green
40:01.3
light. Ngayon pa lang nila
40:03.4
sinasabi yung pwede kayong
40:05.1
pumasok. Yung mga ano nila,
40:07.4
mga ambassadors nila dito, economic
40:11.5
nakikita nila na medyo okay
40:13.2
niya yung Pilipinas. Ano lang,
40:15.7
last year lang, probably
40:17.5
the second half of last year.
40:19.3
Kaya, doon pa lang nila hinihikayat.
40:21.9
Doon pa lang sila nagsisend
40:23.2
ng positive signals sa ating
40:27.5
mga negosyante. But then,
40:30.1
ito nga, inaantay pa rin nila.
40:32.0
Tapos, isa pang signal yung
40:33.3
kay Senator Laila Dilima,
40:35.4
tapos itong potential
40:41.4
parang enticements.
40:43.2
It's for investors to
40:45.1
come in. Pero mga ano yan,
40:47.1
a few years down the road
40:49.2
pa malalasap ng Pilipino yan.
40:51.2
Yeah, you have to really regain their trust
40:53.0
and confidence. I think this is very important.
40:54.8
The Duterte legacy, we keep on forgetting.
40:57.1
I had a EU person coming to
40:59.1
me saying, he was very
41:01.1
shocked na one day, hausap nila
41:03.2
yung people in finance. Hindi ko naman sabihin
41:05.0
sino, pero medyo malalaking tawag nung
41:06.9
panahon ni Digong. And sabi nila,
41:08.6
bahala kayo dyan, andyan naman yung China.
41:10.9
And they were shocked. How naive,
41:13.2
naive you are. Like, saan yung investment
41:15.2
ng China, purong pledge lang, di ba?
41:17.1
Pledge drop. And what, anong
41:19.1
klaseng matinong bansa, mag-isip na
41:21.1
dun lang tayo sa isang bansa, di ba?
41:23.6
You will have no leverage,
41:25.2
right? So, maraming
41:27.3
na shock, including Europeans, with the
41:29.0
amount of naivety and aggressive
41:31.2
I'll be honest, stupidity
41:33.0
of some of the supposedly smart
41:35.0
officials ng panahon ni Digong. And they come
41:37.1
to me and say, Richard, sino ito?
41:39.0
Mga ito, akala namin, mga technocrats, mga ito.
41:40.8
So, ewan ko dyan, in Department of
41:43.2
Finance nga, binabash pa nga ako dati, may mga
41:45.0
press release pa sila. Like, it was
41:47.2
that bad during Digong na
41:48.9
even the sound of technocratic people
41:51.1
were playing politics talaga, DDS
41:53.3
propaganda nonsense. Now,
41:55.1
essentially, as...
41:56.0
I forgot to mention
42:01.6
Early on, there's a secret deal.
42:03.1
Bakit ganun lopsided? Di ba? Bakit
42:05.2
bigay ng bigay si Duterte?
42:09.2
compromised siya.
42:11.3
Okay? Nagbigay sa kanya,
42:13.2
during the campaign,
42:15.6
tapos, ito, ang daming
42:19.0
projects na kumikita sila.
42:22.1
they have to, yan yung
42:25.2
pag-reciprocate nila.
42:27.0
Kasi kumikita sila, eh.
42:28.9
Compromised masyado yan, yung department
42:31.1
officials na sinasabi mo na yan.
42:33.7
I may have an idea
42:35.4
who you're referring to, pero
42:37.0
kasama yan dun sa sindikato nila
42:43.2
Na talagang binigay nila.
42:45.7
They twisted the arms
42:48.7
businessmen just to
42:54.4
needed. So, nakuha nila, pati
42:56.9
franchise, pati yung access
42:58.8
sa mga bases, lahat-lahat.
43:01.3
Yun, yun. Yun ang reason
43:03.8
compromised yung kanilang
43:07.0
foreign policy is because
43:08.6
kumita sila na malaki.
43:11.1
Very good point. I mean, I would say even
43:13.2
to be nice, I think the whole
43:14.6
shadow of Chinese investment
43:16.5
structured, diba, yung tapang
43:19.1
nila. Kasi hindi, sayang, baka may investment.
43:21.1
But, of course, you're implying, maybe it's not
43:22.9
just that. Maybe it's a bit more
43:24.8
than that. But, to be fair to
43:26.8
Neda Secretary Pernia,
43:28.9
I think one reason he resigned,
43:30.8
walang masyado mga kabinat sa kanya. I think it's
43:32.8
because hindi talaga siya natutuwa
43:34.7
sa takbo ng mga bagay-bagay
43:36.9
sa ilan ng Duterte administration. Quiet pa rin
43:38.8
si Pernia. I think he
43:41.0
has a story to tell, hopefully one day.
43:43.2
Alaman natin. Kasi alam niya yung mga kalukuhan
43:44.9
ng China, eh. Yung mga investments.
43:47.1
Kasi, from what I understand,
43:48.9
ang dami mga pledges, and then papunta yung
43:50.8
Neda natin sa Beijing, wala pala, eh.
43:53.3
Hanggang na nilang, boka-boka lang.
43:54.9
So, you wonder, ano ba yung enticement
43:56.9
talaga ng China? Is it really big-ticket
43:58.8
investments or, well, something else?
44:01.0
But, before going
44:02.8
there, I want to talk about Sara Duterte
44:05.0
because, no comment.
44:07.6
Why would the Vice President
44:09.0
of the Republic, who has everything
44:11.0
to say about Afghan
44:13.2
refugees coming in, about conflict
44:14.9
in Gaza and Israel, about, I don't know.
44:17.5
She has statement
44:19.0
on everything, except
44:20.9
pag binabuli tayo ng China sa
44:22.9
West Philippine Sea. Tapos pumasok pa si
44:25.0
pulong sa usapan. What's going
44:27.1
on there, Senator Silianes?
44:29.9
Well, doon mo makikita.
44:31.0
We don't need to be rocket
44:33.1
scientists to figure out kung
44:34.6
nasaan yung puso ni Sara Duterte.
44:37.5
Ayaw niyang, diba, if you
44:40.8
compromise yourself, diba,
44:43.2
might as well not say anything.
44:45.4
Kasi if she says something
44:47.2
positive for China, iba ba
44:51.3
sabihin naman niya, magsabi naman siya
44:53.2
ng negative about China,
44:55.5
eh, compromised na rin sila eh.
44:57.8
Diba? So, ando doon na yung
44:59.1
kanilang loyalty and commitment.
45:02.0
So, ang gawin na lang, mag-no comment
45:03.6
ka na lang and try to,
45:05.2
ano, parang, and hope
45:07.4
that this issue will
45:09.3
blow away or ma-redirect
45:11.7
yung attention to us.
45:13.2
Other people. Pero hanggang kailan
45:14.9
siya magtatago sa ganyan. Diba?
45:17.6
O, yun ang problema. And sana,
45:19.3
makita naman nung mga kababayan natin
45:23.1
na-compromise sila as a family.
45:28.9
Well, may sinabi si Pulong na don't
45:31.1
demonize China. So, parang, hmm,
45:33.0
interesting yung mga ganito. Parang
45:34.9
China pang victim. Kawawa naman
45:37.1
ang China, dinidemonize natin.
45:38.9
Wala naman silang ginagawa eh. Binibigyan tayo
45:41.0
ng libreng, ano, eh, ligo. Diba?
45:43.2
So, I mean, I just find, siguro naman,
45:45.5
siguro, okay, ganito, I'll ask
45:47.4
you, sir, point blank. Do you think
45:49.3
China made a bad investment?
45:53.4
well, masasabi mo
45:55.4
good investment kasi six
45:57.4
years, they had a
45:59.4
grand time dito sa
46:01.2
Pilipinas. Diba? Nagkamali
46:06.6
President Marcos will be
46:09.3
as the same as Duterte.
46:11.3
In fact, pati yung mga pink ang
46:13.2
assumption is the same, eh.
46:15.0
Kaya nga sabi ko, tega, gamali tayo
46:17.1
dito. We need to accept
46:20.1
President Marcos is different
46:25.2
and that is a good thing.
46:28.1
siguro, yung, yun nga, kung investment
46:31.3
nila nila, napakinabangan nila
46:33.2
for six years, now they don't have
46:35.1
any other choice. They still
46:37.2
believe that Sara Duterte can
46:44.7
si President Marcos
46:49.2
bo-bombahan nila yan, bo-buhusin nila
46:52.0
ipapanalo nila through that.
46:54.9
Kung baga, they will have to keep
46:57.1
on hoping that their
46:58.9
investments eventually will
47:01.1
be recooked. Diba?
47:03.2
Yeah, speaking of
47:04.3
libreng paligo at
47:06.9
mabango at gwapo at presko,
47:10.0
the Turfos are doing
47:10.9
very well, diba? So, ang ngayon, confirm na,
47:13.0
at least two surveys are showing Rafi Tulfo
47:15.0
is now the frontrunner, although
47:16.5
it's quite close in the Pulse Asia
47:18.8
one because of the Mindanao numbers.
47:20.6
70 plus are just with Sara. Kunti lang
47:22.4
support kay Rafi so far. So, maybe that opens
47:24.8
up conversation about sinong dapat
47:26.8
VP niya down the road.
47:30.8
survey, for instance, we had Professor Ranjit
47:32.9
ride the other day here on our show
47:34.7
when we talk about, nung pinasok
47:36.9
si Ben Tulfo, nag-number four si Ben,
47:38.9
si Erwin still at number one, although went down.
47:40.9
This is crazy levels. I mean,
47:42.8
of course, Dutertes are not doing too
47:44.8
bad in the surveys. Sara is still
47:46.6
statistically tied for first, or at least
47:48.6
second in surveys. Pulong and Bastar
47:51.0
are within range. Tigong is still
47:52.9
top five. So, I'm not saying
47:54.9
laos na ang mga Duterte, but
47:56.6
clearly, the Tulfos are the new force here.
47:59.5
Ikaw, bilang isang
48:02.4
Sir Sani, anong pang-intindihan mo
48:05.3
abandoned warehouse
48:08.6
kaya kaupan kasi ginagaya
48:10.6
ng kasama ka dito si Ben Tulfo?
48:12.8
Good. Kita tayo sa abandoned
48:16.7
nabasa mo dito, Sir
48:19.8
Well, I think it's yung
48:22.1
na-mention nyo, I think in
48:24.5
one of your episodes, yung
48:26.8
the Tulfo brand, diba?
48:29.2
Yun na ngayon yung parang
48:32.7
titignan mo, yung
48:34.2
Tulfo brand is a modification
48:38.7
tested formula of yung
48:40.8
yung public survey
48:44.8
let's say yung dati, yung
48:46.3
si kina Eddie Ilarde pa,
48:48.4
kina Orly Mercado,
48:50.7
yung nag-a-address sila, may
48:52.4
tatawag na mga hinahing na mga
48:54.4
kababayan natin, then sila,
48:56.5
they will address it,
48:59.1
they will call the
49:00.2
agencies na para mabigay yun,
49:02.9
or minsan, sila mismo nabibigay.
49:04.9
Ganon yun eh. Tapos,
49:06.4
ginawa rin yun, another modification,
49:10.4
kumpanyero, yung legal advice
49:12.8
approach naman, ginawa rin nila
49:14.0
cheese yun. So, ganon yung ano,
49:16.5
pero itong mga Tulfo,
49:18.5
medyo ano sa kanila, yung
49:19.7
the macho type, diba?
49:22.3
Which is always pumapatok
49:24.6
sa Filipino voters.
49:26.9
Early on, meron kami yung
49:28.3
Erap, si Erap, ano yan,
49:30.2
President Erap, ganyan din yun.
49:32.0
Macho cowboy type.
49:34.1
Fred Lim, o si Fred Lim,
49:36.0
yung ano to, parang
49:38.5
Dirty Harry type.
49:40.2
Then you have Duterte. So, kumbaga,
49:44.6
Actually, parang isang mukha lang siya,
49:46.6
nagkaroon lang ng mga modification.
49:48.6
Variations on the team.
49:50.5
Variations, oo. So, yung
49:52.2
from the earlier, Orly Mercado,
49:55.2
Eddie Ilarde approach,
49:57.2
yan yun, yung kila
50:00.4
Rafi Tulfo, Erwin Tulfo,
50:02.9
yan, ganyan. Tapos,
50:04.8
may konting aksyon na, kasi
50:06.3
nagre-raid sila, ganon.
50:10.7
nakita ko yung mga
50:12.8
mga pumipila talaga doon
50:14.5
kina Senator Rafi.
50:16.5
Talagang, they're pinning their hopes
50:22.3
lahat ng, kunyari,
50:24.2
hindi na-feature sa TV,
50:26.9
pero tinutulungan pa rin nila.
50:29.3
So, maraming natutulungan
50:31.0
behind the scenes.
50:32.7
Kaya, kumalat ng kumalat yung
50:37.8
And, yan na ngayon.
50:40.3
I believe that's going to hold
50:45.3
So, yun naman yun.
50:46.6
Kaso, may natural
50:49.2
termination siya.
50:52.5
everybody gets old eh.
50:54.8
At some point, di ba?
50:56.7
Then, may bagong uso, may bagong ano.
50:58.9
So, ganoon lang yun. It comes in
51:04.1
yun. Weather-weather lang,
51:06.7
sabi nga ni Sir Errol.
51:08.7
Ni President Errol.
51:12.8
I'm offended na you didn't mention Robin Hood Padilla.
51:15.8
this one of Robin Hood Padilla.
51:17.5
Actually, the interesting thing we see in the
51:19.2
Paul Secha service conversation about
51:22.9
And, Robin Hood is not doing too well.
51:24.3
I think he's even lower than Aimee Marcos.
51:26.0
The one that comes out very strongly for VP
51:30.2
Uh, she's way ahead of everyone else at around 35%.
51:33.3
So, with statistical margins, she could go all the way up to 40% almost, no?
51:38.0
Are you surprised with Grace Poe still doing very well?
51:40.5
Because, let's not forget 2016, Grace Poe at some point, you know, she's still doing very well.
51:40.8
Because, let's not forget 2016, Grace Poe at some point, you know, she's still doing very well.
51:40.9
Because, let's not forget 2016, Grace Poe at some point,
51:43.0
was seen as a frontrunner.
51:44.7
The citizen issue came up, came about.
51:47.0
And, Duterte took advantage of that.
51:48.4
Obviously, he took advantage of all of yung awa yung tatlo na yan.
51:50.9
B9 versus Marr versus Poe.
51:53.9
Do you think Grace Poe could also be a factor in 2020?
51:57.1
Kasi parang kinansel siya ng mga dilawan,
51:59.4
for the lack of better term.
52:00.9
Because, biniblame siya for Marr's loss.
52:02.6
Although, I have big questions with that claim.
52:05.2
Based on second, third preferences.
52:07.0
What is your read on the Grace Poe?
52:08.2
Because, Poe is also a form of populism, right?
52:10.9
Grace Poe is more than just a populist carrying her father's name.
52:17.7
just for, ano, full disclosure,
52:21.3
we were supporting Senator Grace Poe back in 2016.
52:25.0
Yeah, but that's not what I'm asking.
52:26.5
Yeah, and like you,
52:28.2
we don't agree with that,
52:30.5
yung sinasabi nilang,
52:32.4
iyan siya ang reason kung ba't natalo si, ano,
52:36.6
hindi talaga ganon.
52:38.2
Kung nag-withdraw man si Senator Grace Poe from the,
52:40.7
from the Presidency,
52:42.3
tataas lang ang lamang ni Duterte over Marrojas.
52:46.5
Because, iba talaga yung, yung, ano nila,
52:51.1
yung gusto nila, no?
52:53.5
So, anyway, what's done is done.
52:55.9
Ngayon, nakikita ko, ang idea nila is,
52:59.0
if they are going to push for Rafi Tulfo for President,
53:05.8
siguro magandang parisa ng somebody nice.
53:09.2
And, ano, alam mo yun,
53:10.5
mga babae na tipong, very, ano siya?
53:15.0
Oo, parang nasa-offen yung image.
53:17.8
Siguro yun yung compliment na naiisip nila.
53:20.6
And at the same time, palagay ko na na-exposed na rin
53:24.8
yung, kumbaga yung myth na when they elected people like
53:30.7
Aimee Marcos sa Vice Presidency,
53:33.9
ngayon nakita nila na may mga aspetong kulang.
53:39.4
And in the case ni Aimee Marcos,
53:42.1
because of the open war between the Marcoses and the Dutertes,
53:46.6
siya yung casualty.
53:48.1
And tinatamaan din talaga yung numbers niya all around.
53:52.8
And we're getting similar results in our internal survey.
53:58.1
Let's now go to the last but most important part of our episode.
54:01.4
Pag-usapan naman natin ang opposition
54:02.9
because Lenny still ends up at number three
54:06.3
dun sa Policy Issues Survey for 2020.
54:09.2
I mean, we can have a lot of conversation about it,
54:11.0
but it looks like Lenny is still being considered
54:13.5
as the standard bearer for the opposition should 2020 come.
54:17.6
What does that say?
54:18.3
Because for me, one thing I found interesting in the OCTA research is
54:22.1
one of their researches was about political affiliation.
54:25.3
So nung tinignan nila,
54:27.7
31% is with BBM camp, Loyalista.
54:32.1
20% is with the Duterte camp.
54:34.2
Although I'm shocked na may 1% pa rin ng mga Ilohanos supporting Dutertes.
54:38.9
sino ito mga Ilocano niya?
54:40.0
I don't see that in bag.
54:40.9
Siguro mga taga-dabao na Ilocano yan.
54:44.4
Kasi meron siyang sub-regional, di ba?
54:46.1
So I go, hmm, sino ito mga 1% niya?
54:49.4
Patawagin ko nga yung ano mo diyan,
54:50.9
mga nasa Ilocasol note.
54:52.5
So that was a very interesting survey.
54:54.7
I found it very, very helpful.
54:56.2
Kasi makikita mo,
54:57.0
believable yung mga sub-demographics din eh.
55:00.0
And then, 4% traditional opposition,
55:02.4
my understanding is probably Liberal Party to.
55:04.1
And then, 45% either undecided,
55:08.9
independent, up for grabs.
55:11.0
Hindi ba parang good news yan, Sen. Trillianes,
55:13.6
that there's just so much more out there
55:15.9
that we can explore in terms of mobilizing na
55:18.5
hindi benta mga Dutertes sa kanila,
55:20.9
hindi benta mga Marcoses sa kanila.
55:23.2
I suppose that will also reflect on the Tulfo brand and all.
55:26.3
So there's a large constituency that is still not mobilized.
55:29.9
And perhaps, maybe that should be the conversation for the opposition.
55:32.9
Kasi kanina, purong ibang pinag-usapan natin.
55:34.7
Let's now talk about the option for the opposition.
55:38.2
Not the digong opposition.
55:40.0
While you may have seen the numbers of Lenny Robredo
55:47.9
na medyo significant at 11,
55:50.2
but ako naman, ang nakita ko ron,
55:52.9
from 28% just 2 years ago,
55:56.9
because hindi niya kinonsolidate at pinabayaan basically yung base na yun,
56:04.9
So I'm not seeing na parang it's a strong opposition.
56:08.2
It's a strong 11, but no, pababa yun, from 28 yun eh.
56:13.1
And that's the same thing that happened in 2016.
56:15.9
She got 33% of the vote,
56:18.8
but then when she decided to run for president,
56:21.8
she only was, I think, 6 or 7.
56:24.8
So inayahan mo nang bumaba ng bumaba.
56:27.7
And ganoon na naman nangyayari dito.
56:29.6
Kaya I believe, kailangan na natin talagang magbago ng liderato,
56:38.1
and si Sen. Riza is very much ready to assume that leadership role
56:43.8
if only itong si Vice President Lenny would openly, categorically, and definitively say,
56:54.8
Sen. Riza, ikaw na, hindi na ako tatakbo.
56:60.0
And she can ask the pollsters to strike her name off any 2020,
57:08.1
at least for president.
57:10.2
Yan eh kung totoong ayaw niya na or hindi na siya interesado tumakbo for president.
57:17.5
Kasi kung interesado ka naman pala, then do the legwork, di ba?
57:24.6
Magtrabaho ka, i-consolidate mo yung pinagkatiwalaan tayo ng 2028.
57:30.5
Siya, in for a front matter, pinagkatiwalaan siya ng 2022,
57:34.2
ng 28% of the people.
57:38.1
Kung i-consolidate mo, tapos do the other necessary preparation,
57:43.7
para kung 2028, eh di, she will win.
57:48.1
Pero kung ganun ulit na style na tipong,
57:51.3
teka muna, mabahala na muna kay John, I'll just go around the world muna,
57:55.2
mag-chill muna ako, teka muna, what about the problems of the country?
58:02.1
Di ba, hindi naman natapos yung problema ng bansa nung natalo siya.
58:09.7
Did she stop caring about the problems of the country?
58:13.8
So, ano yung mga leadership traits na dinidisplay niya dito?
58:19.7
Or lack thereof, di ba?
58:21.9
Ngayon, sabi ko nga, kung talagang wala naman ng plano,
58:24.8
eh di, definitively sabihin mo na, hindi na ako talaga tatakbo,
58:29.4
final na yan, Senator Riza, good luck, I will help you,
58:32.8
I will turn over.
58:34.0
So, she'll do a second passing down the, like, talagang, eto na talaga.
58:37.3
Si Riza, by the way.
58:38.1
Should she remind everyone that Riza is the opposite?
58:42.7
Kasi yung unang passing of the baton, ano yun eh, merong hangover pa eh.
58:48.9
People were still clinging on to that image of Eleni Robredo presidency.
58:56.3
Kaya hindi pa nagsink in noong time na yun.
58:58.5
Tsaka hindi siya widely disseminated.
59:01.6
Pero kung gagawin niya ito ulit, definitively, ano no,
59:04.6
then mas ano yun, mas ma-appreciate yun.
59:08.0
Anong tao, okay, we'll move on na from Eleni, Riza it is,
59:12.1
then let's start rallying around Senator Riza.
59:16.9
And I think that's the only hope for the independent opposition
59:24.6
to have a chance in 2028.
59:28.1
And again, just to be fair here, siguro ang tingin ko is,
59:32.1
there are people, I'm not saying Lenny, but maybe there are strategists of her who are saying,
59:38.0
um, strategic ambiguity, if I can put it that way.
59:41.4
Para siyang yung sa West Philippine si Paul is,
59:43.3
let's have a strategic ambiguity, let's see what she does.
59:46.0
If 2025, she wins, she wins a local government office, and then she does well,
59:50.8
then who knows, maybe she'll be in that position.
59:53.0
What you're saying is that, neither nor, neither here nor there is kind of a sub-optimal for everyone.
59:59.1
Because it doesn't allow for Riza to step up,
60:01.2
it also doesn't necessarily put her in the best position to, to get the ball rolling for 2028.
60:06.6
Because we, we can say, Sara is already,
60:08.0
already in a campaign mode in one way or another.
60:11.0
Rafi's already doing that, although he's not directly attacking Sara.
60:14.1
But clearly, we see what Rafi's strategy is.
60:16.5
Don't talk about Sara, make sure that you do your part well.
60:19.5
And that, that strategy is working wonders for Rafi Tulfo so far,
60:22.6
from ilang percent lang siya nung two years ago, di ba?
60:25.1
Ngayon, 35, magpo-40 percent na siya.
60:27.5
So, so what you're saying is that this, neither here nor there,
60:31.3
medyo mali-late na tayo, even though some would say,
60:33.9
hindi, malayo pa naman ng 2028 eh, masyado naman kayong atat,
60:37.1
masyado kayong advance magkakataon.
60:37.8
Mas mag-isip kayong dalawa eh.
60:40.0
Well, yung ambiguous approach na yan,
60:42.7
yan yung ginawa nila nung 20, in the lead up to 2022, di ba?
60:48.7
Look at what happened to us.
60:50.5
Kung nag-e-expect ka ng, ng different result, di ba?
60:54.2
Dapat, teka muna, the same approach, different result,
60:58.2
medyo may problema tayo dyan.
61:00.0
Tapos ang, sabi ko nga, ma-equate ko yan dun sa ano eh,
61:04.1
sa no comment ni Sara eh, di ba?
61:07.5
Paka-uso talaga ngayon ng strategy.
61:09.3
Oo, parang gano'n.
61:10.5
So, eh, ano na, parang, ito lang yung sa'kin, ano,
61:15.9
from a purely public service point of view,
61:22.7
bakit kailangan ka pa ba hikayatin or kumbinsihin itong makbong presidente?
61:30.4
Kung talagang nakikita mong you have the capacity to make a difference in the lives of the people
61:35.6
at marami naga, marami kang nasimulan ng mga base, mga base and besides, vice president ka eh, di ba?
61:44.4
Hindi ba dapat ando do na yun sa'yo na, na tipong, sige, let's go for it?
61:50.0
Bakit kailangan pang kumbinsihin kung talagang mahal mo yung bayan, magkukusa ka?
61:55.5
So, yun yung problema ko dyan.
61:57.4
Hindi dapat, eh na ano, hindi dapat nililigawan ang leader.
62:04.0
Dapat yung leader namumuno.
62:06.6
Just a tiny point on this, again, I mentioned yung 40-45% na somehow up for grabs.
62:14.6
How do we get those people on the side of the good fight, Senator Trillanes?
62:19.6
Ano yung mga katangihan, ano yung mga attributes, ano yung mga positioning na sa tingin mong kailangan natin?
62:24.6
Especially mga kabataan, di ba?
62:26.6
Aside from making better TikTok videos and travel vlogs, ano pang ibang kailangan natin, Senator Trillanes?
62:32.6
Well, remember, yun ang nga kailangan natin.
62:33.6
Well, remember, yun ang nga kailangan natin.
62:34.6
Well, remember, yun ang nga kailangan natin.
62:35.6
Kaya binabalik ko dun sa 28% ni VP Lenny just two years ago.
62:41.6
Yun, they held on to that dream.
62:46.6
So, part of that 45 is the 28.
62:49.6
Kasi ang hiniwalay lang naman is the Duterte 20 and the 31 of the Marcoses.
62:58.6
So, 4% lang yung Liberal Party opposition.
63:04.6
It doesn't matter yung 4% nagshrink pa, so dati 28.
63:06.6
So yung 24 niya na bumoto sa kanya nandu-doon sa 45.
63:12.6
So, in fact, kung sinong pinakamalaking nawalan dito si Lenny, yung pink base, nandu-doon siya kasi naghahanap sila ng leader.
63:21.6
So, the Tulfo Sara is essentially the split of Uniteam, di ba?
63:24.6
Yung 16 na yan at may nga ni Sara and Tulfo.
63:28.6
So, ngayon, pagka lumiwanag na yung leadership ng, di ba?
63:32.6
na yung leadership
63:39.1
magka-gravitate yun
63:41.0
kasi ngayon talaga
63:49.4
yung holding pattern
63:50.6
ano ba nangyayari dyan
63:59.9
independent opposition
64:18.1
siya yung kailangan
64:22.7
Marcos administration
64:23.6
very very good point
64:25.6
actually even more
64:32.2
maybe half of that
64:38.6
so that just tells you
64:41.8
or under top here
64:42.8
kaya mahalaga itong
64:43.6
mga conversation na yan
64:46.4
medyo worried ako
64:47.2
na medyo bangag ako
64:49.6
more than hour of
64:53.7
thank you so much
64:57.6
wide ranging discussion
64:58.5
we're having here
64:59.2
looking forward to
65:00.8
of this in the future
65:07.7
thank you so much
65:11.0
magpahinga po kayo
