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We want to test, approve, no?

But the client was a big part of constructing the question.

And the object is, of course, to look at political preference in general

and to look at how we are, you know,

who everyday Filipinos support at this particular time.

And so, we were happy to get, to generate some information.

It was also an attempt to test the validity of the question.

We could change the question over time.

And so, this was the object of our probe.

So, I hope that, yeah, is that better?

Yeah, yeah, that's it.

Yeah, you can just go down.

Yeah, let's go down.

Yes, one more, one more.

Yeah, that's it.

No, no, you may sit now, Richard.

Yeah, okay, yeah, that's it.

No, no, can you go up?

Yeah, that's it, that's it.

No, can you go up?

Can you go up?

A little more.

Page one, Richard.

Richard.

Second, yeah, second page.

I'm sorry, second page.

Yeah.

Okay, that's it.

Stop there.

Make it bigger.

Yeah, that should be good.

Interesting findings.

Yeah.

So, the basic question is,

are you pro-Marcos?

So, the statement which best describes you

is the way we ask the question.

And I support President Marcos and his administration, 31%.

I support the debate.

The Duterte family and their political alliance.

We classify them as pro-Duterte.

That's 20%.

I support the opposition.

We didn't give,

we didn't define the opposition to our interviewees

as just the Liberal Party.

We just said that, you know,

this may include the left and the Liberal Party

or the traditional opposition.

But that generated a support of 4%.

So, but then this is quite surprising.

29%.

We call them independents in the study.

I do not support the Marcos administration,

the Duterte family and the opposition.

29%.

And those ambivalent, 15.

Meaning, they refused.

So, ang laki ng anti-system, if I can put it that way.

Yeah, that's right.

Paalaki din.

No, but this is a space where the opposition can build on.

Yeah, this is a space also that will be up for grabs.

Yeah.

Yeah.

If you're part of the Duterte alliance,

building the new opposition in their view.

And of course, the Marcos administration

was trying to solidify their base.

So, 29%.

So, where do we locate the Marcoses,

the pro-Marcos support?

It's largely in the National Capital Region.

And Visayas.

Okay.

They're not very strong at this particular time.

In Mindanao, 17% lang sa kanila.

And,

their base of support is D&E.

Okay?

So, when you go to the Duterte family,

the support,

20% of adult Filipinos

support the Duterte family.

Their base is really Mindanao, 53%.

You can see naman, oh.

So, talagang may hold sila sa lugar na yan.

And probably, the low numbers in Mindanao

is because of the feud, right?

I mean,

after the feud coming out,

I mean, we can see that in,

for instance,

the other side survey on the presidential balls,

ang baba lahat dun sa Mindanao.

And then, dun sa preference also for the president,

laki ng baksak ni Marcos sa Mindanao.

You're correct.

You're correct, Richard.

Kasi,

yung ibang probes natin on trust and approval,

bumagsak talaga yung support sa Mindanao

kaala kay President Marcos.

So, it's consistent, no?

And when you look at the base of support,

it's really Class E.

Okay?

So, for the 29%,

which is significant.

It's high sila sa Class E, no?

Both of them are 30%.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yung mga sa Pilinla is almost identical, yeah.

Yeah, pero mas malaki si

yung pro-Marcos group sa Class D,

which is the big chunk of higher.

The biggest one,

which is 55 to 50%.

For voting population, yeah, yeah.

So, even of the population in general,

adult Filipino population.

So, yeah.

So, those who do not support

is still a huge chunk, no?

And those who refuse to,

you know,

who are ambivalent, basically.

So, the 29%,

we classify them as independents.

Yeah?

And you'll notice the base of support.

Can you go down to the last three slides?

Yeah, it's just at the bottom.

Yeah.

So, yeah.

We can, if you can,

yeah.

Yeah.

Okay ka pala sa Zoom.

Sure, pwede ka pala.

Partner pala tayo.

Pwede tayo partner sa presentation.

Sige, sir.

Ako yung,

I'm the one who's the partner.

I'm the one who's the research assistant.

Gawin niyo na lang ako sa,

ano, ano.

But look at these numbers.

Okay ba ito?

Is this useful?

You look at the male.

Yes.

The demographic supporting.

Yeah.

So, at the,

this is how it's spread.

You know, the regional,

we know that already.

But urban-rural,

it's almost the same.

Yeah, for the Marcos vote.

Yeah?

The pro-Marcos support,

not vote,

but support.

I'm sorry.

Male-female,

almost the same.

But look at the age group.

Okay?

They're pretty balanced.

Very strongly,

well-supported

in the critical

18 to

35 range.

So, that's where

there's lots of support.

And you'll be surprised, no?

55 to 64,

ito yung Marcos,

ano,

maybes, no?

Ito yung,

hindi pa naman ako dito

sa age group na ito.

Pero alam mo yun,

yeah.

The Marcos.

Nang laglangan.

Oo.

Nang laglangan.

So, eto,

but I think interesting yun

sa education,

actually,

educational background

ng Marcos supporter, no?

So, you'll see that

a big chunk of them

are from high school,

vocational.

Yeah.

And interesting,

but not surprising,

Iglesia na Cristo

is a big, you know,

when you look at the religious breakdown,

55% of the head.

And then, of course,

you look at the ethnic,

ethnic,

ethnic support, no?

It's basically Ilocano-Tagalog, no?

Yes.

There's a very small,

there's a very strong

Cebuano support pa rin.

22%.

Pero wait lang,

agli pa yan?

Wasn't it found by an Ilocano?

Ito hindi nga lang.

I was just reading lang

about Isabelo de los Reyes

and then agli pa yan.

But the chunks there

are Roman Catholic,

Islam,

so meaning in the terms

of the actual percentage

that they have

as far as the population

is concerned.

So,

very interesting.

Interesting, yeah?

But you look at

the next slide,

which is

the Delta family.

Yeah, okay.

Yeah.

So,

yeah,

you'll notice

their,

the support is very different

as far as the age groups

are concerned.

Yeah,

the big supporters

are Islam, no?

Can you see?

Sixty-six percent?

So,

when you look at the religious support.

There's a Mindanao factor there

because most of the

Mindao factors are Mindanao.

Yeah.

So, Mindanao is also

their base of support.

And,

Bisaya,

41%,

can you see?

What's the number?

One percent

by Ilocano.

One percent.

Which I wonder,

sino tong one percent

na may Ilocano toto?

I'm gonna research them.

Pagod kayo sa akin.

Uwi ako ng bagay soon.

May one percent.

One percent.

I mean, wow.

Anyway,

but,

this is a snapshot.

This is good.

This is a very,

very helpful

professor.

It reinforces

the demographics

we know about

these two political families.

And why they were also

very unbeatable

together.

Okay?

Meaning,

you can understand

their base of support.

But,

if they're united,

they can really,

there will be a lot of continuity

as far as government

and politics is concerned.

Interesting.

But then,

they're bifurcated

not just around

personalities

and personal interests,

but also along policy lines.

We also know that,

di ba?

Right.

And,

it's become the great divide

between the families.

One is

very supportive of China.

The other one is

not as supportive.

Sorry,

is that yours or mine?

No,

I think that

probably is yours,

bro.

Wala.

No, no.

This is very important

because,

honestly,

for me,

the big thing

before we talk about

the third part,

independence is,

and the reason why

I find it very interesting,

aside from the fact na

meron mga sub-demographics,

this reminds us of the,

kasi kung titignan mo dito,

almost kalahatan

ng mga voters

are either undecided,

independent,

or medyo

traditionalist,

traditional opposition,

right?

Kasi,

pag sinama mo yung dalawa,

31 plus 20,

that's just 51%.

So,

roughly half of the voters

are up for grabs,

right?

In a sense,

for an

to Dirt and Marcos.

This is,

this is huge.

This is actually very important

if you look at it that way.

Assuming,

someone consolidates them

into a third force.

A third force.

If you're running

a campaign

for the midterms,

this is important

to take note of.

But this is not surprising.

They're not very strong.

The administration

is not very strong

in Mindanao.

So,

but the thing is,

they can consolidate.

When you look at

the independents,

a lot of them

are still in balance

with Zon Visayas.

So, you can,

that's up for grabs,

talaga.

Lalo na Visayas.

So,

this is something

that the administration

and even

the opposition,

whoever

eventually becomes,

or takes control of it,

however it evolves,

no?

So,

we'll have to work on.

There's a lot

for grabs.

If you put that

plus those

who did not respond,

that's around 45%

rigid.

So, up for grabs.

I find this

very, very helpful.

Thank you so much.

I'll just call you

Ranjit na lang

kasi, ano,

we want to have you

more regularly

sa first name basis na lang.

Professor,

this is very,

very helpful.

Obviously,

I found nothing shocking

in terms of numbers

except the 1%.

Bakit may 1%

pang mga ilo pa.

Mga hudas ganyan.

I'm just kidding.

I'm kidding.

No, kasi I was just in Baguio,

di ba?

Last week before I flew into US

and ang dami mga bumpers.

Where are you now?

Where are you now?

Where are you now?

I'm in Berkeley now.

Berkeley.

Okay, okay.

Good.

Kaya may time zone natin.

It's nighttime or late?

It's 9pm right now.

Yeah, exactly.

Okay, that's nice.

That's nice.

Thank you so much

for agreeing to morning

kasi ang hirap.

Because later,

we're gonna have

Senator Trillianis back again

also on our show.

Pero ganyan niya.

So that's gonna be like

5am my time.

So medyo you're gonna see

more sabog version of me.

5am is not my time talaga eh.

But thank you so much

for this.

So Professor,

can we look at the big picture now?

And also dito sa independence.

What is your read

dito sa independence?

Because I also find this

very interesting.

Well, there are

Pilipinos who are still,

you know,

they may have actually

support.

I mean,

the question is not crafted,

you know,

it still needs

a lot of improvement

as far as

medyo generic pa siya.

What about it?

So,

we have to improve

this question

over time.

This is,

remember,

this was not developed

by Octave,

so the client-based.

The client suggested

this question.

And

we just ran it

for them.

Operationalize,

lalang kayo.

Out of operation.

But with slight

improvements

to improve the validity

of the question.

But then again,

we can break this down

ideologically.

We try to find out.

A lot of people

are out there

who don't see

the administration

or the

groups that they want

to support.

Okay?

And that's also good,

right?

Di ba?

That the company

is not bifurcated

by just two families.

Although a big chunk

of it is

nearly 50%.

I don't know,

more than 50%

already,

but basically,

the pro-Marcos

or pro-Duterte.

But a big chunk

is still open

and

is still looking

for that group

they want to support

or they have

support,

no?

But we also included

the opposition kasi.

That's 4% lang,

no?

And so,

they don't see

the Liberal Party

or the

traditional opposition

as the

group they want

to support.

So that's

also good

that we,

you know,

our own,

but one could also

argue there's a divide,

di ba?

There's a divide

between those

who have already

affiliations,

no?

And those who do not.

What's relevant

for me here

is that it reaffirms

all these old images

of Philippine

government and politics,

you know?

It's familial,

it's very personal,

that our divides

are along

ethnic cleavages,

no?

And that,

you know,

the weakness

of the party system,

the lack of it,

no?

The non-existence of it

has not disciplined

our politics,

has made our politics

ill-disciplined,

and around

all this

parochialism

and personalism.

Yeah,

but if we had

stronger parties,

you know,

we could

see ourselves

be divided along

ideas,

ideology,

platforms,

and programs,

no?

Instead of just families,

no?

But I think a lot

of the data

reaffirms

all our own,

you know,

consistent images,

no?

Of how changed

this Philippine

politics seems to be.

But, you know,

there's hope

in the 29

and the 40 percent

who don't have

a position yet.

That's a huge number.

Honestly,

I think I'm more optimistic

than you,

cautiously more optimistic

in the sense that

the two surveys

that we discussed today

are two sides

of the picture, right?

One side is the

continuity part,

particularly continuity

in terms of appeal

of the Tulfos

and Dutertes

and the whole

macho populist

kind of appeal.

Although,

both of us argued that

forget about differences

between Dutertes and Tulfos,

the Tulfo brothers

themselves are extremely

different from each other,

right?

I've interviewed

in Rafi,

two very different

individuals.

I think Rafi

is much more independent

so far.

Let's see with Erwin

if he's going to

hew more towards

the administration.

And then Ben Tulfo

is totally

different conversation,

right?

But at the same time,

I think the second survey

was very interesting

because almost half

of the voters

were either

independents

or kind of

anti-system

or something,

which tells you,

you know,

there's hope for change.

Exactly.

Assuming certain

things are done.

Yeah, yeah.

So at one level,

one could

construe

continuity and change

from the picture

being shown by the survey.

Although the data

is not enough

to make solid arguments,

but, you know,

there's always that

us taking ourselves

out of the survey

and looking at

the general trajectory

of Philippine politics.

There is a trajectory

for reform.

There's a strong

sense of continuity

as far as government

and politics are concerned,

but there is always

that, you know,

that element of change

that's happening

and being driven

by young people,

by people who

are programmed

to be aggressive,

who align themselves

along ideas,

platform,

and, you know,

a belief that,

you know,

democracy and development

can actually happen

if we all work together.

So, you know,

there's always

that movement there.

And, you know,

hopefully that movement

will have more voice

and become more,

you know,

vibrant, no?

And we hope to see

that, you know,

more survey numbers

in the future

pointing out to this

progressive movement

taking hold of our politics.

And that, no,

thank you very much,

Professor Rai.

As you can see,

I'm a little tired here.

I'm a little tired.

So, perfect.

Go to sleep first.

Sleep in preparation

for the Senator Trillanes interview.

I know, I know.

There's so much going on.

I still have to write

a piece on the

Quad Patrols

in West Philippine CNL.

So, thank you so much,

Professor Rai.

This was very helpful data.

And definitely,

I'm going to refer this

to this

in future lectures,

discussions,

and writings.

We hope to have you again

in the near future

as more data,

as more interesting surveys,

as more

heightened,

you know,

designed surveys come in

because

I can see you're hedging

a little bit

in a social scientist way,

you know,

but I want to jump

into conclusions.

But as I said,

at least we have something

to hold on to

before we can make

a conjectural

or more than hopefully

conjectural political analysis.

Thank you very much,

Professor Ranjit Rai

from OCTA Research.

And of course,

University of the Philippines

Diliman,

Total Science Department

for joining us.

Thank you, Richard.

And thank you

to all those who watched

today's podcast.

Thank you.

God bless and have a good day,

Paul Sir.

Thank you.

Okay.