00:17.6
when you look at, as you go down the list,
00:20.5
that the gaps between candidates
00:21.9
are much, much, much smaller,
00:30.6
10 to 15, or yeah,
00:32.3
it's very competitive.
00:34.4
And the magic number
00:36.1
for us is something
00:40.1
Anybody above 30% has a very
00:42.4
good chance of getting in the top 12.
00:45.5
That looks like the threshold.
00:46.9
Yeah, that looks like it. But 20%
00:50.3
puts you within the competitive range
00:52.3
and 30% more or less
00:53.8
puts you almost in a shoe-in range, right?
00:59.6
the vulnerables are those
01:01.4
rank 8 and below.
01:03.5
So, yeah, it's being very
01:05.7
competitive. Which includes Aimee Marcos, no?
01:07.7
Which is... Yeah, for the first time.
01:09.6
It's quite a shock, no? It's a shocker
01:11.9
considering... Actually, it's a
01:13.7
shocker for us because
01:14.7
you know, she's had a...
01:17.7
She's not a client, by the way.
01:21.7
measuring her numbers, really as a proxy
01:23.8
also for the administration, no?
01:26.3
And it's gone down.
01:28.3
And her numbers have gone down.
01:30.9
And to some extent,
01:32.6
although we haven't reported
01:33.7
the numbers for the administration yet,
01:35.6
we're still going over them a second time.
01:38.7
There's a slight decline
01:42.1
But Aimee is opposition in a way, right?
01:44.1
I know. Maybe that's part of the problem also.
01:46.8
Nobody knows where she's actually...
01:48.8
She's more opposition. I mean, let's be honest.
01:52.7
Maybe that erosion, no?
01:55.7
the confusion on which...
02:00.1
I find it also interesting,
02:02.5
Professor Rai, the fact that
02:04.4
Isko and Willie Ong are almost the same.
02:06.7
No? I mean, it's very...
02:07.7
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
02:08.6
I was wondering how far they were back in the day.
02:10.5
One was presidentiable,
02:12.3
competitive at some point.
02:13.7
One was like a vice presidential
02:15.1
that people were not sure about.
02:17.1
And it looks like
02:17.7
Willie Ong might have a third-time lock-in, no?
02:20.5
Just like reason.
02:21.5
That's very possible.
02:23.1
It looks like he might have a third-time lock-in.
02:25.9
For the last three quarters,
02:28.3
he's in the top 12.
02:31.5
very few occasions
02:33.2
in the last few quarters
02:36.2
that these numbers have really fluctuated.
02:39.1
It's statistically stable.
02:41.3
Except that in this particular quarter,
02:44.2
for the last two quarters,
02:46.5
it's been statistically stable.
02:48.3
But this third quarter,
02:50.2
he went down slightly
02:52.0
because, you know,
02:53.0
you put in two big names,
02:55.2
President Duterte and...
02:58.3
former President Duterte
03:01.5
disrupted the list.
03:03.3
So, they ate into a lot of the
03:05.4
support for the others.
03:07.8
So, that's one big takeaway
03:09.6
that once you introduce
03:13.8
Ben and Bastet, di ba?
03:17.3
It kind of scrambled the whole rankings
03:20.9
which tells you how volatile, no?
03:22.5
The situation is.
03:23.6
Including the top guy
03:24.7
coming down to 58%
03:28.3
From 70 plus percent.
03:31.0
I mean, that's crazy.
03:35.2
So, one implication is
03:37.3
if you're Erwin Tulfoy,
03:38.5
the biggest threat to you
03:39.7
topping the Senate race
03:40.9
because the point matters to me
03:42.1
is your own brother, right?
03:44.9
And it looks like, yeah.
03:47.2
Ang marites sa akin
03:48.0
is yung pinakakuya nila
03:49.3
ay napaisip bigla
03:51.9
baka okay lang ko rin tumakbo dyan
03:54.2
Mohan Tulfoy wasn't doing too bad
03:58.3
if I'm not mistaken.
03:59.3
And he's the OG, right?
04:03.4
would be quite bad
04:04.4
for Erwin, right?
04:05.3
It could really split the vote
04:06.5
in ways that happen.
04:07.2
So, the explosive part of this
04:10.9
Tulfoy and Tulfoy,
04:13.3
but they're on the opposite sides
04:15.6
you have to understand.
04:17.6
Oh, yeah, definitely.
04:18.9
towards the Duterte side
04:25.1
With the administration.
04:26.3
Which is like the Marcoses,
04:27.5
One is the admin,
04:29.3
one is the other side.
04:32.3
I don't, of course,
04:32.9
I'm not sure if this was
04:38.0
express their preference,
04:40.9
meron ba appreciation
04:41.8
ng mga ganyan nuances
04:42.9
or it's more really
04:47.1
We don't have the data
04:50.6
we're going to build
04:53.9
We link preference
04:56.6
it's a big debate
04:59.6
this is where we're coming
05:01.8
and that these preferences
05:03.3
are built on identities,
05:07.4
our political culture.
05:17.8
brand is important
05:18.8
and you're seeing it,
05:22.3
and still very competitive.
05:24.6
You're also seeing it
05:25.4
with the Duterte brand.
05:27.6
possible candidates,
05:33.4
are actually going to run,
05:34.7
are in the top 15.
05:43.5
And in this particular
05:44.8
midterm elections,
05:47.4
look like the cast,
05:49.7
highly competitive
05:53.2
very established brands
05:54.4
against each other.
05:57.5
machinery will come in,
06:00.5
political network
06:02.8
resources will come in.
06:07.1
to go to the next part
06:09.6
you'll notice that,
06:11.0
it's also important
06:12.1
if you're aligned
06:12.6
with the administration
06:13.4
at this particular.
06:14.1
I think that's a perfect segue.
06:16.0
But before we segue
06:16.7
to the next part,
06:17.6
because that's where
06:18.2
we can break down
06:24.9
that's the kind of service
06:25.9
we want to also see,
06:26.7
more data on that
06:28.3
because we generally
06:29.6
we talk about DDS
06:31.9
in a blogger sense
06:33.6
but we really need the data.
06:35.3
But for a moment,
06:37.6
I understand that,
06:38.8
we want to talk about
06:43.0
as data we can get.
06:43.9
But let's just say,
06:45.3
despite the epistemological
06:48.8
what is your sense
06:50.5
and rise of Tulfos?
06:51.5
Because our understanding
06:58.4
president of the Philippines.
07:00.3
in the Pulse Asia survey,
07:01.3
at least from what we see,
07:02.3
it's statistically tied.
07:03.6
But his trajectory
07:04.7
is just incredible
07:07.1
to 30 plus percent
07:10.8
If Lenny doesn't run
07:12.9
will go more to Tulfo
07:14.4
considering the opposition
07:16.1
and Lenny Robredo,
07:20.5
so this is really,
07:22.1
you're absolutely right.
07:23.6
We can talk about
07:24.5
the Duterte test shortly,
07:28.1
the thing with the Tulfos is,
07:30.4
ang basa ko dito is,
07:32.3
the surprise to me
07:34.5
made it to national politics
07:37.4
Kasi if we recall it
07:40.1
the Tulfos were already
07:41.1
a national brand.
07:42.3
It was just a matter
07:43.0
of them making that leap,
07:44.7
They were already
07:46.2
and they already had
07:49.8
savior of the people.
07:51.3
Talagang top na top nila yan.
07:53.8
this is a belated,
07:59.2
building of their brand
08:01.8
that they danger among the,
08:05.7
I won't say vigilante justice,
08:08.3
let's just call it
08:09.7
I interviewed Rafi Tulfo,
08:10.7
so people can check
08:11.4
the interview that I had
08:15.5
so yun ang basa ko.
08:16.5
I want to understand
08:17.3
where you come from
08:18.1
as a political scientist.
08:19.2
I understand because
08:20.3
you're now in the
08:22.1
You want to be a little bit
08:22.9
circumspect about
08:25.8
You want to give analysis.
08:30.9
the common perceptions
08:35.8
it's been evolving
08:38.6
The decision to run
08:42.4
the decision to run
08:43.7
linked also to the support
08:45.0
of the Duterte family,
08:46.8
To a great extent,
08:47.9
they were associated
08:48.7
very strongly with
08:50.0
the Duterte brand also.
08:53.5
many commonalities,
09:12.2
weak institutions,
09:16.2
weak on many fronts,
09:22.1
and the leadership
09:25.7
These tend to rise,
09:27.4
especially during hard times.
09:30.5
you see a lot of populists
09:33.6
this particular context
09:37.6
is extremely hard
09:38.5
for most of our countrymen.
09:39.9
Mahirap na hirapan
09:40.7
yung mga ating kababayan.
09:42.4
Nayakita rin namin
09:43.1
sa surveys namin yan.
09:44.7
Consistently over the last
09:47.4
Ang talagang problema,
09:49.3
urgent national concern
09:50.7
that people want to resolve,
09:52.7
that what people want
09:53.4
government to resolve
09:55.7
the prices of goods
09:57.6
Nahihirapan po sila.
10:06.4
In times of hardship,
10:13.0
this is the kind of
10:14.1
population that's
10:28.0
But, that's a problem,
10:30.3
that's a struggle,
10:36.8
But, that's one way
10:37.7
of looking at it.
10:38.2
But, the populist
10:39.0
appeal is very strong
10:41.8
understand the tulfos
10:42.7
have a particular
10:43.5
ethnic background.
10:46.2
They have a strong
10:46.8
support as far as
10:48.1
that's concerned.
10:48.7
When you look at their
10:49.2
But, their father is
10:50.5
last time I checked.
10:51.3
Yes, I know, I know.
10:58.3
they're also popular
11:03.3
this particular sense.
11:19.1
competitive because
11:26.7
We just have to ask
11:32.2
that commissioned it,
11:33.2
if we can release
11:35.6
Tulfo versus Sara.
11:37.7
But, in our probe,
11:38.9
Tulfo has not lost
11:50.2
We won't give the numbers,
11:51.6
siyempre, kasi...
11:52.7
I appreciate that.
12:00.5
in Philippine elections,
12:02.2
a two-way contest
12:04.7
a two-way contest,
12:08.3
or the Philippines.
12:09.8
except for the contest
12:13.1
President Marcos Sr.
12:16.1
it's always been,
12:19.5
competing against each other.
12:21.4
Rafi Tulfo's weakness is.
12:24.5
Yes, no baluarte.
12:27.0
a consistent baluarte.
12:30.1
attacks against them,
12:31.6
they have a baluarte.
12:33.1
it's only located
12:37.4
you still have that.
12:39.0
So, in a three-way,
12:40.1
four-way contest,
12:41.7
will always be competitive.
12:45.3
That's a very good point.
12:48.9
I understand that,
12:50.7
I thank you so much,
12:52.7
for at least confirming
12:54.3
I've been saying for a while
12:57.4
different surveys,
12:58.5
this upward trajectory
13:02.4
that's where the second
13:03.3
preference comes in
13:04.3
because it's very possible
13:05.6
that a lot of those
13:06.3
candidates there,
13:07.4
particularly Lenny,
13:08.3
I doubt if she'll run
13:10.3
things could change
13:11.0
if she does well,
13:12.7
as a local official
13:16.5
that's where things
13:17.5
could get very interesting,
13:21.0
The other important factor
13:23.1
and three Duterte's
13:24.1
could potentially
13:26.2
that's next level, right?
13:31.7
but three brothers
13:33.1
and three Duterte's
13:34.6
could be something,
13:38.5
veto constituency
13:42.1
partido na sila, no?
13:46.5
if it'll actually happen,
13:48.8
Things could change
13:50.1
between now and October.
13:52.6
para sa ating mga kababayan,
13:53.5
nagbabago pa yung mga numero na to.
13:55.2
At meron pang espasyo
13:56.6
para sa mga progresibo.
13:58.1
Meron pang espasyo talaga
13:59.1
para sa ating mga
14:04.9
wala pa namang kampanya.
14:17.0
ang magiging malaking
14:21.2
It's gonna be expensive,
14:22.2
very competitive,
14:23.7
and parang may alas
14:27.9
Kasi marami silang resources,
14:29.2
sila nakapuesto ngayon.
14:31.0
So, those associated
14:32.0
with the administration
14:33.0
when you look down
14:35.2
Yeah, but the thing is,
14:35.9
that's the big question.
14:37.3
That's the other big question,
14:39.0
Saan ba dyan yung
14:41.6
Sino ba dyan yung
14:42.1
kandidato ng administration?
