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probably the most competitive Senate race, no?

If all of the people we think

we're gonna run are gonna run, right? I mean, this is

crazy. It's so tight.

Yeah, it's very tight

and we feel that

these four slots are the only ones

being relatively open,

no? And you'll notice

when you look at, as you go down the list,

that the gaps between candidates

are much, much, much smaller,

no? From

10 to 15, no?

So,

from rank

10 to 15, or yeah,

it's very competitive.

And the magic number

for us is something

above 30%, no?

Anybody above 30% has a very

good chance of getting in the top 12.

So, that is...

That looks like the threshold.

Yeah, that looks like it. But 20%

puts you within the competitive range

and 30% more or less

puts you almost in a shoe-in range, right?

Yeah, assured.

You see, the

the vulnerables are those

rank 8 and below.

So, yeah, it's being very

competitive. Which includes Aimee Marcos, no?

Which is... Yeah, for the first time.

It's quite a shock, no? It's a shocker

considering... Actually, it's a

shocker for us because

you know, she's had a...

She's not a client, by the way.

We've been

measuring her numbers, really as a proxy

also for the administration, no?

And it's gone down.

And her numbers have gone down.

And to some extent,

although we haven't reported

the numbers for the administration yet,

we're still going over them a second time.

There's a slight decline

on major issues.

But Aimee is opposition in a way, right?

I know. Maybe that's part of the problem also.

Nobody knows where she's actually...

She's more opposition. I mean, let's be honest.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Maybe that erosion, no?

That noise and

the confusion on which...

shine she is

supposedly.

I find it also interesting,

Professor Rai, the fact that

Isko and Willie Ong are almost the same.

No? I mean, it's very...

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

I was wondering how far they were back in the day.

One was presidentiable,

competitive at some point.

One was like a vice presidential

that people were not sure about.

And it looks like

Willie Ong might have a third-time lock-in, no?

Just like reason.

That's very possible.

It looks like he might have a third-time lock-in.

For the last three quarters,

he's in the top 12.

Yeah, possible.

And actually,

very few occasions

in the last few quarters

that these numbers have really fluctuated.

It's statistically stable.

Except that in this particular quarter,

for the last two quarters,

it's been statistically stable.

But this third quarter,

he went down slightly

because, you know,

you put in two big names,

President Duterte and...

former President Duterte

and, of course,

Ben Tulfoy

disrupted the list.

So, they ate into a lot of the

support for the others.

So, that's one big takeaway

that once you introduce

BNB, right?

Ben and Bastet, di ba?

Ben and Bastet.

It kind of scrambled the whole rankings

and all of that,

which tells you how volatile, no?

The situation is.

Including the top guy

coming down to 58%

from...

18 points down.

From 70 plus percent.

I mean, that's crazy.

Mid-70s percent.

So, okay.

So, one implication is

if you're Erwin Tulfoy,

the biggest threat to you

topping the Senate race

because the point matters to me

is your own brother, right?

Yeah.

And it looks like, yeah.

Ang marites sa akin

is yung pinakakuya nila

ay napaisip bigla

na wait lang,

baka okay lang ko rin tumakbo dyan

kasi

Mohan Tulfoy wasn't doing too bad

in 2019

service.

In 2019,

service,

if I'm not mistaken.

And he's the OG, right?

So,

Tulfoy run

would be quite bad

for Erwin, right?

It could really split the vote

in ways that happen.

So, the explosive part of this

is TNT.

Tulfoy and Tulfoy,

you know?

So,

but they're on the opposite sides

politically,

you have to understand.

Oh, yeah, definitely.

They're leaning

towards the Duterte side

and

Erwin is

very much, no?

With the administration.

Which is like the Marcoses,

right?

One is the admin,

one is the other side.

But, okay,

I don't, of course,

I'm not sure if this was

in the survey,

but

is there an,

when people

express their preference,

meron ba appreciation

ng mga ganyan nuances

or it's more really

the brand,

the name,

the name recall?

We don't have the data

yet for that.

Hopefully,

we're going to build

a probe on that.

We link preference

with culture.

Of course,

it's a big debate

in politics.

But, you know,

this is where we're coming

from at Okta

and that these preferences

are built on identities,

on cleavages,

on perceptions

about

our political culture.

And

you'll see that

in the next

set of

survey data

that we're going

to show you.

But, yes,

brand is important

and you're seeing it,

the Tulfo brand

is alive

and kicking

and still very competitive.

You're also seeing it

with the Duterte brand.

All,

all three

possible candidates,

I'm sure,

you know,

we're not sure

if any of them

are actually going to run,

are in the top 15.

So, you know,

this is

brand,

brand name,

you know,

is important.

And in this particular

midterm elections,

if this might

look like the cast,

it's going to be

highly competitive

because you're

pitting,

you know,

very established brands

against each other.

And then again,

you know,

machinery will come in,

your network,

political network

will come in.

Of course,

resources will come in.

And so,

you know,

you know,

to go to the next part

of our survey,

you'll notice that,

you know,

it's also important

if you're aligned

with the administration

at this particular.

I think that's a perfect segue.

But before we segue

to the next part,

because that's where

we can break down

the alignments

and affiliations

and preferences,

which is,

I think,

kudos to Okta

for doing that

because I think

that's the kind of service

we want to also see,

more data on that

because we generally

talking,

we talk about DDS

versus loyalist

in a blogger sense

of the word,

but we really need the data.

But for a moment,

can we,

I understand that,

you know,

we want to talk about

things based on

as much possible

as data we can get.

But let's just say,

despite the epistemological

limitations,

if I can put it,

what is your sense

with the rise

and rise of Tulfos?

Because our understanding

is that,

well,

I mean,

Rafi Tulfo

is also now

the front,

front runner

to be the next

president of the Philippines.

Although,

of course,

in the Pulse Asia survey,

at least from what we see,

it's statistically tied.

But his trajectory

is just incredible

from teens

to 30 plus percent

right now.

And who knows,

right?

If Lenny doesn't run

or someone else,

probably numbers

will go more to Tulfo

than Sara,

considering the opposition

between Sara

and Lenny Robredo,

right?

So,

so this is really,

you're absolutely right.

We can talk about

the Duterte test shortly,

but,

but the,

the,

the,

the,

the thing with the Tulfos is,

ang basa ko dito is,

the surprise to me

is how Duterte's

made it to national politics

ahead of Tulfos.

Kasi if we recall it

five,

ten years ago,

the Tulfos were already

a national brand.

It was just a matter

of them making that leap,

diba?

They were already

household names

and they already had

that huge appeal

to the masses

as a kind of a

savior of the people.

Talagang top na top nila yan.

So,

in a way,

you could say

this is a belated,

right?

Right?

Harvest

of that

long-term

building of their brand

and,

and the appeal

that they danger among the,

I mean,

andyan dat,

diba?

Macho,

savior.

I won't say vigilante justice,

but,

you know,

let's just call it

Tulfo justice.

I interviewed Rafi Tulfo,

so people can check

the interview that I had

with Rafi Tulfo

on these issues.

But,

so yun ang basa ko.

I want to understand

where you come from

as a political scientist.

Again,

I understand because

you're now in the

survey agencies.

You want to be a little bit

circumspect about

any kind of

stuff.

You want to give analysis.

But,

just overall.

Okay,

I agree with

the common perceptions

about

the Tulfo brand.

It's,

it's,

it's been evolving

over time.

The decision to run

was

only recent.

And,

the decision to run

was,

by the way,

linked also to the support

of the Duterte family,

you know.

To a great extent,

they were associated

very strongly with

the Duterte brand also.

And,

they share

many commonalities,

as far as

the

those brand,

that brand of

leadership

and governance

is concerned.

Yeah,

they come from

a populist mode,

no?

And,

this,

you know,

in an era where,

or in a context

where we have

weak institutions,

okay,

a state that's

characterized as

weak on many fronts,

you find space

for these kinds

of candidates

and the kinds

of advocacies

and the leadership

style that they

promote.

These tend to rise,

especially during hard times.

Richard,

you see a lot of populists

rising up, no?

And,

this particular context

that we're in

as a country

is extremely hard

for most of our countrymen.

Mahirap na hirapan

yung mga ating kababayan.

Nayakita rin namin

sa surveys namin yan.

Consistently over the last

year, no?

Ang talagang problema,

number one,

urgent national concern

that people want to resolve,

that what people want

government to resolve

has always been

the hype,

the prices of goods

and services.

Nahihirapan po sila.

Their second

is, of course,

accessible food

and, of course,

higher wages.

So, yan,

consistent yan.

In times of hardship,

you know,

populists

find space,

no?

And, I guess,

this is the kind of

population that's

very

I think the term

we use

is

Filipino style,

yeah.

Right,

the term we use

is

weak state

strong tulfos,

right?

Yeah.

But, that's a problem,

you know,

that's a struggle,

yeah?

We use the

weak state

song society

perspective.

But, that's one way

of looking at it.

But, the populist

appeal is very strong

with Filipinos.

You have to also

understand the tulfos

have a particular

ethnic background.

They're Bisaya.

They have a strong

support as far as

that's concerned.

When you look at their

name.

But, their father is

Ilocano,

last time I checked.

Yes, I know, I know.

From Batakpo,

nga yata, eh.

And then,

Java.

Japanese yung

mom nila, yeah.

Yeah, and then,

they're also popular

in the,

they're a strong

candidate in

this particular sense.

You get votes

everywhere.

When you look at

the Duterte,

let's say,

assuming there's

a Sara,

Rafi,

you know,

competition in

2020,

which is so far

away, no?

Rafi will

have,

will be very

competitive because

he,

he gets votes

everywhere.

North,

South,

Bisaya.

You know,

we have a probe.

We just have to ask

our,

you know,

our,

the company

that commissioned it,

if we can release

the probe on

Tulfo versus Sara.

But, in our probe,

Tulfo has not lost

to Sara Duterte

one-on-one.

In fact,

the gap is

increasing.

Thank you for...

The reality, eh.

The reality, eh.

We won't give the numbers,

siyempre, kasi...

Yeah, exactly.

I appreciate that.

Alright.

Yeah,

the basic,

the basic

perspective is,

in,

in Philippine elections,

it's not just

a two-way contest

naman, eh.

You haven't seen

a two-way contest,

okay,

in post-March

or the Philippines.

Except,

no, no,

except for the contest

within

Cory Aquino

and

President Marcos Sr.

But after that,

it's always been,

you know,

tandems, no?

Multiple tandems

competing against each other.

And that's where

Rafi Tulfo's weakness is.

Okay?

Yes, no baluarte.

The Tete's

a consistent baluarte.

Even now,

despite all the

attacks against them,

they have a baluarte.

Yes, you can say

it's only located

in one regional.

Yeah, I mean,

the now,

but, you know,

you still have that.

So, in a three-way,

four-way contest,

some of the Tete

will always be competitive.

You understand?

So, this is...

That's a very good point.

Yeah,

of course,

I understand that,

you know,

I thank you so much,

by the way,

for at least confirming

kasi, you know,

I've been saying for a while

that not only

in Pulse Asia,

but we've seen

different surveys,

this upward trajectory

of Rafi Tulfo.

Obviously,

that's where the second

preference comes in

because it's very possible

that a lot of those

candidates there,

particularly Lenny,

I doubt if she'll run

in 2020,

but, of course,

things could change

if she does well,

let's say,

as a local official

in 2025 onwards.

So,

that's where things

could get very interesting,

right?

But, obviously,

you're right.

The other important factor

are Duterte's

and three Duterte's

could potentially

make it.

I mean,

that's next level, right?

We have already

Mag-Inap,

right?

The Villars,

the Catanos,

but three brothers

and three Duterte's

could be something,

right?

Yeah.

This is a

veto constituency

already, no?

Yeah.

Parang, ano na,

partido na sila, no?

Yeah, but

we'll see

if it'll actually happen,

you know?

Things could change

between now and October.

And so,

para sa ating mga kababayan,

nagbabago pa yung mga numero na to.

At meron pang espasyo

para sa mga progresibo.

Meron pang espasyo talaga

para sa ating mga

sa oposisyon.

And, of course,

you know,

wala pa namang kampanya.

Although,

nagkakampanya na

informally

ang lahat.

Mukhang

pamilya

ang

malaking

factor dito.

Ang pangalan,

pamilya,

pera,

ang magiging malaking

factor dito sa

ating

2025 elections.

It's gonna be expensive,

very competitive,

and parang may alas

yung

ating

administration.

Okay?

Kasi marami silang resources,

sila nakapuesto ngayon.

So, those associated

with the administration

when you look down

the list.

Yeah, but the thing is,

that's the big question.

That's the other big question,

Richard.

Saan ba dyan yung

administration?

Hindi ba?

Sino ba dyan yung

kandidato ng administration?

Hindi ba?

O wala,

parang wala

kandidato yung

administration.