00:38.1
Yung sinasabi nilang, iyan siya ang reason kung ba't natalo si...
00:43.7
Hindi talaga ganon.
00:45.8
Kung nag-withdraw man si Sen. Grace Poe from the presidency,
00:49.7
tataas lang ang lamang ni Duterte over Mar Rojas.
00:53.8
Because iba talaga yung nila.
00:57.8
Yung gusto nila, kaya dilipat.
01:00.9
So anyway, what's done is done.
01:03.4
Ngayon, nakikita ko, ang idea nila is if they are going to push for Rafi Tulfo for president,
01:13.2
siguro magandang parisa ng somebody nice.
01:16.8
And ano, alam mo yun, babae na, tipong very...
01:21.8
Oo, parang maso-open yung image. Parang ganon.
01:25.4
Siguro yun yung compliment na naisip nila.
01:27.8
And at the same time, palagay ko na na-expose na rin yung kumagayong myth
01:34.3
na when they elected people like Robin Padilla,
01:38.3
Amy Marcos sa vice presidency,
01:41.5
ngayon nakita nila na may mga aspetong kulang.
01:47.0
And in the case ni Amy Marcos,
01:49.7
because of the open war between the Marcoses and the Dutertes,
01:53.7
siya yung casualty.
01:55.8
And tinatamaan din talaga.
01:57.8
Yung numbers niya all around.
02:00.1
And we're getting similar results in our internal survey.
02:05.7
And let's now go to the last but most important part of our episode.
02:09.0
Pag-usapan naman natin ang opposition.
02:10.5
Because Lenny still ends up at number three dun sa policy she served for 2028.
02:16.8
I mean, we can have a lot of conversation about it.
02:18.5
But it looks like Lenny still being considered as the standard bearer for the opposition should 2028 come.
02:25.2
What does that say?
02:25.9
Because for me, one thing,
02:27.8
I found interesting in the OCTA researches.
02:29.7
One of their researches was about political affiliation.
02:33.0
So nung tinignan nila,
02:34.3
31% is with BBM camp, Loyalista.
02:39.6
20% is with the Duterte camp.
02:41.8
Although I'm shocked na may 1% pa rin ng mga Ilocanos supporting Dutertes.
02:45.9
I was like, sino ito mga Ilocano niya?
02:47.6
I don't see that in bag.
02:48.5
Siguro mga taga-dabao na Ilocano yan.
02:51.6
Kasi mayroon siyang sub-regional.
02:53.4
So I go, hmm, sino ito mga 1% niya?
02:56.9
Patawagin ko ngayon.
02:57.8
So that was a very interesting survey.
03:02.3
I found it very, very helpful.
03:03.8
Kasi makikita mo, believable yung mga sub-demographics din eh.
03:07.6
And then, 4% traditional opposition, my understanding, is probably Liberal Party to.
03:12.5
And then, 45%, either undecided, independent, up for grabs.
03:18.8
Hindi pa parang good news yan, Sen. Trillianes,
03:21.2
that there's just so much more out there that we can explore in terms of mobilizing na
03:25.9
hindi benta mga Duterte.
03:27.8
Sa kanila, hindi benta mga Marcoses sa kanila.
03:30.8
I suppose that will also reflect on the Tulfo brand and all.
03:34.1
So there's a large constituency that is still not mobilized.
03:37.5
And perhaps, maybe that should be the conversation for the opposition.
03:40.5
Kasi kanina, purong ibang pinag-usapan natin.
03:42.2
Let's now talk about the option for the opposition.
03:44.8
Real opposition, not the digong opposition.
03:48.7
While you may have seen the numbers of Lenny Robredo na medyo significant,
03:58.7
But ako naman, ang nakita ko ron, from 28%, just two years ago.
04:05.6
Because hindi niya kinonsolidate at pinabayaan, basically, yung base na yun, bumaba ng 11.
04:13.2
So I'm not saying na parang it's a strong 11, but no, pababa yun.
04:20.6
And that's the same thing that happened in 2016.
04:23.1
She got 33% of the vote.
04:25.9
But then when she decided to run for president, she only was, I think, 6 or 7.
04:32.3
So inayaan mo nang bumaba ng bumaba.
04:35.2
And ganoon na naman nangyayari dito.
04:37.7
Kaya I believe, kailangan na natin talagang mag-bago ng liderato.
04:46.1
And si Sen. Teresa is very much ready to assume that leadership role.
04:51.4
If only itong si Vice President Lenny,
04:55.9
would openly, categorically, and definitively say,
05:02.4
Sen. Teresa, ikaw na, hindi na ako tatakbo.
05:07.7
And she can ask the pollsters to strike her name off any 2028 list for president.
05:17.8
Yan eh kung totoong ayaw niya na, or hindi na siya interesado, tumakbo for president.
05:25.9
Interesado ka naman pala, then do the legwork.
05:33.4
I-consolidate mo yung pinagkatiwalaan tayo ng 2028.
05:38.0
Siya, in for a front matter, pinagkatiwalaan siya ng 2022.
05:42.3
Ng 28% of the people.
05:46.3
Kung mag-consolidate mo.
05:47.8
Tapos do the other necessary preparation.
05:51.0
Para kung 2028, edi she will win.
05:55.0
Pero kung ganoon ulit na style na tipong,
05:58.8
Teka muna, mabahala na muna kay John.
06:00.8
I'll just go around the world muna.
06:02.7
Mag-chill muna ako.
06:05.9
Teka muna, what about the problems of the country?
06:09.6
Di ba? Hindi naman natapos yung problema ng bansa nung natalo siya.
06:17.2
Did she stop caring about the problems of the country?
06:20.9
So ano yung mga leadership...
06:25.0
Traits na dinidisplay niya dito.
06:27.3
Or lack thereof, di ba?
06:29.4
Ngayon, sabi ko nga, kung talagang wala naman ng plano,
06:32.4
edi definitively sabihin mo na, hindi na ako talaga tatakbo.
06:38.2
Sen. Riza, good luck. I will help you.
06:40.9
I will turn over.
06:41.6
So she should do a second passing down the...
06:43.2
Talagang, eto na talaga.
06:44.8
Si Riza, by the way, ganoon.
06:46.3
Should she remind everyone that Riza is the opposite?
06:50.1
Kasi yung unang passing of the baton, ano yun eh?
06:53.9
Merong hangover pa eh.
06:56.4
People were still clinging on to that image of a Lenny Robredo presidency.
07:03.7
Kaya hindi pa nagsink in noong time na yun.
07:06.1
Tsaka hindi siya widely disseminated.
07:09.1
Pero kung gagawin niya ito ulit, definitively,
07:11.9
then mas ma-appreciate yun ng tao.
07:15.9
Okay, we'll move on na from Riza it is.
07:19.6
Then let's start rallying around the senatorial...
07:24.5
And I think that's the only hope for the independent opposition
07:32.2
to have a chance in 2020.
07:35.5
And again, just to be fair here,
07:38.7
siguro ang tingin ko is there are people,
07:40.6
I'm not saying Lenny, but maybe there are strategists of her who are saying,
07:43.8
let's have strategic ambiguity, if I can put it that way.
07:48.8
Para siya yung sa West Philippine si Paul.
07:50.8
Let's have a strategic ambiguity.
07:52.5
Let's see what she does.
07:53.6
If 2025, she wins, she wins at local government office,
07:57.3
and then she does well, then who knows?
07:59.2
Maybe she'll be in that position.
08:00.8
What you're saying is that neither here nor there
08:04.1
is kind of a suboptimal for everyone
08:06.6
because it doesn't allow for Riza to step up.
08:09.1
It also doesn't necessarily put her in the best position
08:12.0
to get the ball rolling for 2020.
08:14.1
Because we can see Sarah is already in a campaign mode in one way or another.
08:18.7
Rafi is already doing that, although he's not directly attacking Sarah.
08:21.6
But clearly, we see what Rafi's strategy,
08:23.6
is don't talk about Sarah, make sure that you do your part well.
08:27.1
And that strategy is working wonders for Rafi Tulfo so far
08:30.1
from ilang percent lang siya nung two years ago, di ba?
08:32.7
Ngayon, 35, magpo 40 percent to siya.
08:35.2
So what you're saying is that this neither here nor there,
08:38.9
medyo mali-late na tayo, even though some would say,
08:41.4
hindi, malayo pa naman ng 2028, eh.
08:43.5
Masyado naman kayong atat, masyado kayong advance mag-isip kayong dalawa, eh.
08:47.5
Well, yung ambiguous approach na yan,
08:50.0
yan yung ginawa nila nung 2020,
08:53.6
in the lead up to 2022, di ba?
08:56.2
Look at what happened to us.
08:58.1
Kung nag-e-expect ka ng different result, di ba?
09:01.8
Dapat, teka muna, the same approach, different result,
09:05.9
medyo may problema tayo dyan.
09:07.6
Tapos, sabi ko nga, ma-equate ko yan dun sa, ano eh,
09:11.6
sa no comment ni Sarah, eh.
09:15.1
Baka uso talaga ng strategy.
09:16.8
Oo, parang gano'n.
09:18.6
Oo, eh, ano na, parang ito lang yung sa akin, ano?
09:23.6
From a purely public service point of view,
09:30.3
bakit kailangan ka pa ba hikayatin or kumbinsihin itong makbong presidente?
09:37.9
Kung talagang nakikita mong you have the capacity to make a difference in the lives of the people
09:43.1
at marami kang nasimulan ng mga base,
09:48.2
and besides, vice president ka eh.
09:52.8
ando do na yun sa'yo, na tipong, sige, let's go for it.
09:57.5
Bakit kailangan pang kumbinsihin?
09:59.4
Kung talagang mahal mo yung bayan, magkukusa ka.
10:02.9
So, yun yung problema ko dyan.
10:05.0
Hindi dapat, eh na, ano,
10:07.4
hindi dapat nililigawan ang leader.
10:11.6
Dapat yung leader namumuno.
10:14.1
Right, just a tiny point on this.
10:17.5
Again, I mentioned yung 40-45% somehow up for grabs.
10:22.8
How do we get those people on the side of the good fight, Sen. Tertulianes?
10:27.8
Ano yung mga katangihan, ano yung mga attributes, ano yung mga positioning na sa tingin mong kailangan natin?
10:33.1
Especially mga kabataan, di ba?
10:34.7
Aside from making better TikTok videos and travel vlogs,
10:38.0
ano pang ibang kailangan natin, Sen. Tertulianes?
10:40.6
Well, remember, yun ang nga kaya binabalik ko dun sa 28% ni VP Lenny just two years ago.
10:49.1
Yun, they held on to that dream.
10:52.8
Di ba? Ando dun yun.
10:54.2
So, part of that 45% is the 28%.
10:57.6
Kasi ang hiniwalay lang naman is the Duterte 21% and the 20% and the 31% of the Marcoses.
11:06.8
4% lang yung Liberal Party opposition.
11:10.2
Oo. So, bakit? For that matter, yung 4% nag-shrink pa.
11:14.2
So, dati 28%. So, yung 24% niya na bumoto sa kanya, nando doon sa 45%.
11:19.7
Di ba? So, in fact, kung sino pinakamalakas,
11:22.8
kinawalang dito, si Lenny, yung pink base,
11:26.8
ando doon siya kasi naghahanap sila ng leader.
11:29.8
So, the Tulfo-Sara is essentially the split of unity, di ba?
11:32.9
Yung 60 na yan, na-split niya ni Sara and Tulfo.
11:37.0
So, ngayon, pagka lumiwanag na yung leadership ng pink movement,
11:46.1
yun yun, magka-gravitate yun towards that.
11:48.6
Kasi ngayon talaga napabayaan eh.
11:52.8
Kaya, naghahanap.
11:54.2
Or iba, nasa parang, ano muna, yung holding pattern.
11:58.4
Ano ba nangyayari dyan? Sige, abangan natin.
12:01.1
But, ano, I believe, ano yan, it boils down to the next leader of the independent opposition.
12:09.5
Kung paano niya ay kakamada yung kanyang organization.
12:14.3
Paano niya ay kakamada yung kanyang mensahe.
12:16.5
At paano niya ma-inspire.
12:22.8
Or at least yung 25 na yun.
12:25.4
Na siya yung kailangan pagkatiwalaan, mamuno na ating bansa after the Marcos administration.
12:32.2
Very, very good point.
12:33.2
Actually, even more optimistic than I was considering.
12:37.9
Dun sa 40 plus percent na yan, maybe half of that were already sympathetic,
12:43.7
if not already involved in the pink movement.
12:46.4
So, that just tells you how much more is on top tier or under top tier.
12:50.5
Kaya, mahalaga itong mga katulad.
