00:13.3
daming fans kayo na.
00:14.4
Ang ganda ng analysis ni Mark.
00:16.2
Hindi na ito, ano.
00:17.7
Ganyan, ganyan, ganyan.
00:18.7
Okay, okay, okay.
00:19.9
Sige, let's start with you, sir Mark.
00:21.5
Thank you, thank you.
00:22.7
Anong basa mo dun sa Octa Survey
00:25.6
okay, 30%, 31% sa Mark,
00:29.0
sa Marcos Camp, Loyalista,
00:31.6
20% na lang sa mga digong.
00:34.0
Kasama dyan ang 1% ng mga Ilocanos
00:36.4
na i-investigate pa namin.
00:38.5
magro-roll call kami bukas.
00:42.2
4% lang yung traditional opposition.
00:46.4
buti nga, may 4% pa nga eh.
00:51.0
45% ay either independent
00:57.3
under-top population.
00:59.5
Siguro kasama pa dyan,
01:00.4
eto yung teori ni Trillanes.
01:03.3
yung 15 million na bumoto kay Lenny.
01:05.4
Kasi, hindi naman 4% lang yung 15 million.
01:08.8
So, baka marami dyan sa pink movement.
01:10.5
Yung iba dun kasi ayaw lang kay Marcos eh.
01:13.0
Ayaw nila Marcos,
01:13.7
ayaw nila sa Philippines,
01:16.3
Pero, ang dami pa nila.
01:17.3
So, anong basa mo dito, sir Mark?
01:22.4
nung in-analyze namin yan,
01:27.1
ang sinasabi nga nila,
01:29.0
na-confirm yung sinasabi nila
01:31.3
na ganito lang kalaki talaga
01:34.5
o yung maka nandun sa side na yun
01:37.3
Pero, ito yung problema ko dyan
01:39.0
sa figure na yan.
01:44.7
alam mong diehard yan eh.
01:46.4
Yung mga 20% nung DDS,
01:48.8
alam mong diehard yan.
01:49.8
Yung sa 31% ng admin,
01:53.3
kung ilan dyan yung loyalista,
01:54.8
ilan dyan yung nakasuporta
01:56.8
dahil kayo yung nasa pwesto
01:59.0
ilan dyan yung ayaw lang.
02:01.1
So, ang problema dyan,
02:10.3
hindi yan solid bo-voto
02:11.4
kung sino yung i-endorse ni BBM
02:13.1
sa susunod na election eh.
02:14.7
So, up for grabs pa rin eh.
02:17.0
alam mo nang yung 4%,
02:21.1
malaking prosyento dyan,
02:23.5
kahit ano mangyari,
02:24.9
sa mga Duterte yan.
02:27.2
hindi alam kung ilan dyan
02:31.4
o Marcos kahit ano mangyari.
02:34.9
ang challenge siya,
02:36.9
solidify yung 31%.
02:39.5
Kahit ano mangyari,
02:40.7
kahit sinong ipalit natin dito,
02:42.8
kung sinong ano natin,
02:43.8
kung si Romualdes,
02:47.8
kung sino yung i-ano natin,
02:49.8
susuportahan pa rin
02:56.4
So, bagong-bagong ano na.
02:59.6
yun yung posibleng
03:03.5
kung sino pang lalabas
03:11.8
kung gano'ng kasolid pa yun
03:17.5
is more ban-wagoning
03:18.7
dahil ando new resources
03:20.7
with the administration.
03:24.3
marginalized politically
03:26.1
but they're still
03:26.7
sticking with Digong.
03:28.0
it's a loyal base.
03:29.7
Mas loyalista yung base
03:31.8
kaysa yung loyalista base.
03:33.4
Well, you're right.
03:39.6
kung 16, 15 million
03:40.8
ang botong kinawa ni Lenny,
03:42.6
4% is just a small
03:45.3
Probably 1 or 2 million lang.
03:47.1
may 10, 12 million
03:48.9
na pink movement member
03:50.1
ay nandun pa rin.
03:52.0
Wala na silang pake.
03:53.7
Siguro galit sila.
03:55.3
Gusto nila mag-migrate.
03:56.5
sa'yo na nangbasa mo.
03:57.4
Kasi, this kind of confirms
03:58.7
what we have been saying
04:01.0
Na hindi na-mobilize
04:02.6
kasi yung pink movement.
04:03.7
So, marami sa kanila ngayon
04:09.1
dito sa nangyayari
04:13.0
katulad ng sinabi natin
04:14.9
nung nakarang episode,
04:16.5
medyo naiiba itong survey na ito.
04:18.7
Dahil, sabi mo nga,
04:19.9
tailor-fitted ito
04:20.8
dun sa nag-request.
04:22.7
Kaya, hindi ko pa
04:23.8
sigurado yung accuracy niya.
04:28.5
hindi naman natin nakita
04:30.0
yung laman ng survey.
04:31.7
Nakita lang natin
04:33.8
Dahil, mahalaga kasi
04:34.6
makita natin yung
04:38.1
yung ganitong klase.
04:39.3
Ano yung mga tanong
04:45.0
pwedeng tanggapin
04:56.5
hindi siya masyadong
04:57.4
Bagamat magkaiba,
05:16.4
which is basically
05:20.3
na ayaw dun sa lahat.
05:28.6
Dahil, yung pink naman,
05:29.6
hindi naman pinopost
05:35.0
pinopost na alternative
05:40.0
Para hibernation.
05:42.4
Hindi naman kwalit.
05:43.1
Tapos, yung leader
05:47.6
hindi siya mag-lead
05:50.4
Hindi siya tatakbo
05:52.5
Magnanaga lang siya.
05:55.6
lost in translation.
05:57.4
Yung ibig sabihin
06:02.8
Dahil ang tingin nila,
06:04.1
wala namang plano
06:10.9
Ang nilalabalan nila
06:13.6
Pero, hindi naman
06:16.9
kung ididikit mo siya
06:20.1
hindi masyadong malayo.
06:21.5
Dahil sa Palsesha kasi,
06:28.7
dyan sa OCTA survey
06:34.2
baka napupunta sa Tulpo.
06:38.9
ang beneficiary dito,
06:41.4
yung pagkakahate,
06:44.0
ng Duterte at saka Marcos,
06:50.9
dun napupunta sa Tulpo.
06:55.4
dun sa Palsesha survey
07:00.7
baka kinakailangan
07:03.0
kailangan lamanan pa
07:04.8
na ganyang klase.
07:05.7
Dahil kailangan ko nakakita
07:06.8
ng ganyang klaseng
07:09.2
Ganyang klaseng tanong.
07:14.4
na ang beneficiary
07:16.2
are the Tulpo brand.
07:20.3
makikipagdebate ro.
07:22.5
That's a good point.
07:24.6
what do you think
07:25.4
does this say about
07:26.9
the future direction
07:29.8
Ako kasi ang basa ko is
07:30.8
in theory this says
07:32.0
there's a lot of room
07:33.8
for a third force.
07:35.2
Whatever that third force could be.
07:36.7
We just have to figure out
07:39.5
40, 40, 50 percent
07:41.4
na hindi nila nakikita
07:42.5
in either the Marcos camp
07:44.0
with all the resources
07:45.2
and Maharlika fun stuff
07:47.8
nor in the Duterte camp
07:49.6
with all of the drama
07:53.1
do you see a room
07:54.1
for a third force here
07:59.5
Ito pala yung sinabi ko din
08:00.8
when I did a vlog on that.
08:02.7
Ang problema kasi nga din
08:04.0
doon sa survey na yan
08:06.0
wala kang point of reference
08:07.5
from one year ago,
08:09.5
Kaya maganda sinimulan yan eh.
08:11.1
Pero, kasi importanteng
08:14.0
How do you identify eh?
08:15.6
Parang tatanungin mo,
08:17.2
are you a liberal?
08:18.0
Are you conservative?
08:19.8
So, wala masyadong
08:22.8
yung pinakamalapit eh.
08:24.1
Kasi kung DDS ka,
08:25.3
alam mong meron kang
08:26.9
Kung ano man yung values
08:29.3
nila na yun, di ba?
08:30.7
So, natatanong nilang ganon.
08:33.4
Ang challenge dito
08:35.4
I also said this pala.
08:39.1
hindi ko pa nakikita
08:41.0
diehard TULFOs eh.
08:43.9
Maraming, marami dyan,
08:45.3
maraming pro-Marcos,
08:47.6
willing, open sila
08:49.1
to a TULFO presidency.
08:50.8
Pero, hindi ko pa nakikitaan
08:53.4
nakikipagbardagulan,
08:55.9
para lang kay TULFO.
08:56.9
So, yun ang medyo
09:01.7
They could develop,
09:02.7
they have four years
09:07.2
dun sa survey na yan,
09:08.6
pag kinanong mo yung tao,
09:13.1
or kung ano man yung
09:17.4
So, yun ang challenge
09:23.6
I think this is also
09:24.6
a chance then to rebrand.
09:25.8
Hindi naman rebrand,
09:27.8
widen the umbrella.
09:32.3
medyo semi-rebrand eh.
09:34.3
Medyo kung ano yung
09:37.9
Reboot na lang, reboot.
09:39.1
Kasi branding medyo
09:40.2
mala Paul Soriano,
09:42.5
love the Philippines,
09:45.9
Maganda yung nasimulan
09:46.9
dun sa pink movement
09:48.2
is just a matter of ano eh.
09:49.9
Dapat hindi lang kasi
09:51.6
sa public ano eh.
09:58.0
kahit ano mangyari,
09:59.0
kahit kita nalang
09:59.7
maling-maling eh.
10:01.9
yung mga loyalista
10:04.7
Talagang Marcos Marcos
10:07.0
Pero yun ang kailangan
10:10.8
yun ang kailangan
10:14.4
Kasi parang sa amin nga,
10:16.3
yung kay Tito Soto,
10:20.2
Yung online namin
10:21.2
sa isang channel ko,
10:22.4
yun ay yung online na
10:24.1
ano ni Tito Sen eh,
10:25.2
yung mga dabarkads eh.
10:26.5
Dahil doon sa buong issue,
10:27.9
nakabuo siya ng konting
10:29.2
maliit na segment
10:30.4
na pwedeng mag-identify
10:32.8
for the Soto family.
10:35.1
Hindi lang sa kanya,
10:35.9
sa lahat ng Soto na yun.
10:38.7
it's a matter of building
10:40.0
talaga yung mga diehards mo eh.
10:42.7
hindi ko pa talaga nakikita
10:44.8
As in, sobrang liit pa.
10:46.0
Kasi mararamdaman mo yun eh
10:48.3
Kapag yung mga Tulfo vloggers
10:50.3
na puro pro-Tulfo yung content,
10:52.3
unti-unti mabubuo yun eh.
10:54.2
Tapos mabubuo yun
10:56.2
yung atake kay Tulfo.
10:58.0
Kasi yung dumadami
10:59.1
mag-de-defend eh.
11:00.4
So, doon sila nakaka-hard
11:01.5
na magiging Tulfo defender.
11:03.4
So, yun yung assessment ko
11:05.9
and yung opportunities for Tulfo
11:07.7
and dun sa Pink and Risa.
11:11.4
Tama yung sabi ni Mark, no?
11:14.7
nitong survey na ito,
11:17.9
at saka yung SWSN Pulse,
11:20.6
nakalagay doon yung hard
11:23.6
Dito kasi wala nakalagay
11:24.7
na hard at saka softer.
11:27.4
Baka hindi na-release.
11:28.6
Baka hindi na-release.
11:29.6
Baka yun yung private copy na.
11:32.3
Mahalagay yun eh.
11:34.0
yung walang term of reference
11:35.2
dahil una nga siya eh.
11:36.9
So, wala kang basis
11:38.1
for comparison, no?
11:39.7
Kaya yun yung part.
11:44.7
halimbawa yung Duterte
11:46.6
bago siya tumakbo
11:49.2
nung bago siya nanalo
11:52.0
one year lang yung gestation eh.
11:54.8
One year lang siya
11:56.7
nag-build ng machinery,
11:58.6
Halos wala siyang
12:01.2
Yung organisasyon na buo
12:02.5
nung presidente na siya.
12:07.7
Ang kaibahan ngayon,
12:08.8
may four years yung mga tulpo
12:11.9
Para magbuo ng machinery
12:13.1
na wala si Digong.
12:16.1
Wala siyang partido.
12:17.1
Ang partido niya,
12:18.6
Isa lang ang membro
12:21.7
Tingin ko mas mga...
12:22.4
Is Duterte a good reference point?
12:24.5
I think he's more of a
12:26.4
exceptional case, right?
12:28.6
Yes, dahil pareha sila
12:31.7
Populist spectrum.
12:33.4
Pareha sila na quick fix.
12:38.4
Na na-create, no?
12:39.4
May ganun klaseng similarity.
12:41.1
Kahit magkaiba sila.
12:42.9
Nandun sila sa spectrum
12:47.8
Diretsyong solusyon,
12:49.9
Etcetera, etcetera.
12:53.4
Mas comprehensive yung
12:55.6
Tulpo, hindi lang crime eh.
12:57.0
Yung weaknesses ng institution,
12:58.9
yung kahinaan ng gobyerno,
13:01.6
sa kanya katatakbo eh.
13:02.8
Kaya nga, ipatulpo.
13:04.9
Isumbong kay Tulpo,
13:06.7
anything goes eh.
13:08.0
Hindi lang crime.
13:08.8
Si Digong, mas narrow eh.
13:11.3
Pero very popular.
13:14.1
kung aayusin ang mga Tulpo,
13:16.5
kung aayusin nila,
13:18.0
yung kanilang narrative
13:19.4
at lalagyan nila ng machinery,
13:21.8
mas mahaba yung panahon nila
13:23.1
kumpara kay Digong.
13:24.7
Kumpara kay Digong.
13:25.6
At pwede silang matuto
13:27.7
dun sa karanasan kay Digong.
13:30.2
Yun yung pwede nila.
13:33.0
Thank you so much, gentlemen.
13:34.3
That was fantastic discussion.
13:35.8
Medyo nagsasetting na yung jet lag ko.
13:38.8
Thank you so much.
13:40.0
I really appreciated this discussion.
13:42.0
Talaga si Mark Gamboa.
13:43.3
It's super nice to have you again.
13:45.9
for this kind of like
13:47.0
in-your-face real talk.
13:48.9
What's happening in the
13:50.0
blogosphere discussion.
13:52.2
Because very very useful yan
13:53.4
in terms of tracing.
13:55.0
Parang crowdsourcing.
13:55.6
Parang crowdsourcing yan.
13:56.2
Pero nung sinabi mo
13:57.7
ang naisip ko yung sinabi ni
14:04.7
makalusot na tayo sa
14:06.6
Binalik ni Kuya RRM.
14:13.4
naging challenge ako.
14:15.7
na clean cut dito.
14:17.8
Hindi naman palmolive level
14:21.3
Parang may pisingay
14:23.2
Parang palmolive eh.
14:25.6
Deligado tayo dyan.
14:27.4
Thank you so much guys.
14:28.6
Maraming salamat.
14:32.7
sa one and a half hours
14:36.6
Pero thank you so much.
14:37.7
I really appreciate it.
14:39.5
And talk to you soon.
14:40.3
And hopefully next month,
14:41.3
set up tayo in person naman.
14:44.3
kailangan natin magtagay tayo.
14:48.1
mga sponsors natin.
14:52.3
Para matikman naman namin
14:53.4
yung katas na mga sponsor mo.
14:55.6
Mga katas na mga natin dyan.
14:58.8
Deligado tayo dyan.
15:01.0
Talk to you soon.
