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Market Edge | ANC (17 April 2024)
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00:00.0
Hello everyone, I'm Michelle Long, it's 9 in Manila at 10 in Tokyo at 9pm in New York.
00:11.6
The headlines.
00:13.6
Asian markets looking mixed this morning after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled rates will be higher for longer,
00:20.7
for in his words, as long as needed, following a run-up of upward inflation surprices.
00:26.5
Philippine shares kicking off from 64.04, erasing all of its 8% gain this year and then some.
00:38.0
Manny Villar's property arm, Vista Land and Lifescapes, nets 10.3 billion pesos in profit for 2023.
00:45.9
This, plus ABS-CBN Corporation's results later in the program.
00:53.3
Luzon and Visayas still under yellow alert today.
00:56.5
Today, although authorities expect more stable power supply.
01:01.7
And later, we speak with Cebulan master's second-in-command, Franco Soberano,
01:06.9
about where they plan to take the company and Visayas' property market.
01:13.0
Asian markets set for mixed trade this Wednesday following hawkish comments by Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell
01:19.8
that dragged the S&P 500 to a third straight drop overnight.
01:23.7
Looking at the board so far, stocks in Australia,
01:26.5
and futures for Hong Kong looking down.
01:31.0
While Japan was earlier seeing modest lift, but now is also down by four-tenths of 1%.
01:36.6
Only Seoul's KOSPI index is managing to post very modest gains of less than half of 1%.
01:42.8
Currencies in the spotlight as well after the U.S. dollar saw its best five-day gain since October 2022.
01:51.3
Meantime, futures for Wall Street looking up after a midday gain.
01:56.5
Mixed, mostly lackluster performance overnight.
01:59.7
Tech-heavy Nasdaq leading gainers there, up by a tenth of 1%.
02:03.7
Followed by the Dow and the S&P.
02:06.2
Of course, these are futures looking like they're going to recover and rebound when trading resumes tonight, Manila time.
02:13.4
So here is exactly what happened on Wall Street overnight.
02:16.3
U.S. stocks sliding further away from record levels on Tuesday as Treasury yields climbed to fresh 2024 highs
02:23.7
following the Federal Reserve Chief Jay Powell's signal.
02:26.5
The policymakers are in no rush to cut rates and it will take longer to gain confidence in inflation's downward trajectory.
02:34.8
The two-year yield briefly hitting 5% while U.S. 10-year yields rose seven basis points to 4.67%.
02:42.1
Probably what's moving markets today is the idea of higher for longer and that there will be fewer rate cuts.
02:50.9
The markets have, over the last six months or so, moved higher.
02:56.5
Because of the idea that there were going to be multiple rate cuts and that has propelled the equity markets.
03:06.1
But now, the equity markets are pulling back off of that sugar high because they see that there are going to be fewer rate cuts, if any at all, this year.
03:19.2
The S&P 500 dropping to around 50-50 overnight.
03:23.8
Now, that benchmark and the Nasdaq are now...
03:26.5
...nearly 4% off from record high levels reached last month.
03:30.4
Meanwhile, the Dow, as you can see, is the sole winner, up by a fifth of 1%, getting a big boost from UnitedHealth Group Inc.,
03:37.7
which rallied after its results beat street expectations and affirmed its outlook for the year,
03:42.3
despite costs associated with a cyberattack on one of its subsidiaries that earlier roiled the healthcare industry.
03:49.5
Now, in highlights from corporate America, we're looking at Lockheed Martin, the U.S. Pentagon says,
03:55.7
"...delays in delivery of F-35 jets with computer hardware and software upgrades likely to persist until August or September."
04:04.2
We're also watching Johnson & Johnson, whose first-quarter drug sales narrowly outpaced estimates.
04:09.5
They're now a step towards boosting profitability after the spinoff of its consumer division.
04:15.5
Meanwhile, LVMH sales growth slowing at the start of the year as wealthy consumers reined in spending on pricey Louis Vuitton handbags and Hennessy cognac.
04:24.7
In banking...
04:25.7
In banking, we're watching Bank of America. Its shares sank overnight as charge-off for soured loans from credit cards and office loans topped estimates.
04:34.3
While Morgan Stanley headed the other way, shares popped overnight as traders delivered solid revenue.
04:43.5
Back here at home, here's a look at the local corporate headlines we're watching this morning.
04:47.8
Vista Land and Lifescapes, the property arm of the richest Filipino money villar, nets 10.3 billion pesos.
04:55.4
Vista Land and Lifescapes, the property arm of the richest Filipino money villar, nets 10.3 billion pesos.
04:55.6
For the full year of 2023, that's up 39% year-on-year.
05:00.0
In the year, it launched 34 projects collectively worth 51 billion pesos.
05:05.2
It notes the new launches were key to reservation sales, hitting over 70 billion, putting it on track to maximize resources strategy as majority of them were vertical developments across the country.
05:17.2
The company ended the year with total assets amounting to 342.4 billion pesos.
05:23.1
That's a 6% increase from 2020.
05:25.6
The company ended the year with total assets amounting to 342.4 billion pesos.
05:55.6
That's a 6% increase from 2020.
05:55.6
The company ended the year with total assets amounting to 342.4 billion pesos.
06:25.6
That's a 6% increase from 2020.
06:55.6
Further in the technological space, the telco is allotting 1.15 billion pesos in capital expenditures this year to upgrade its equipment and expand network coverage.
07:06.8
Most of the capex right now is on the refresh, improving network technology and everything that we have in terms of the network component.
07:14.6
But we still have a lot for expansion also.
07:17.8
After X number of years, your equipment becomes obsolete.
07:21.2
You know, technology becomes obsolete quite quickly.
07:24.7
You know, technology becomes obsolete quite quickly.
07:25.6
We need to upgrade or refresh our network.
07:29.2
It is eyeing to raise its revenue from 4.3 billion pesos last year to 4.8 billion this year.
07:35.0
And one way to do that is by expanding to so-called digital-ready provincial cities like Iloilo, Davao, Cagayn de Oro and Bacolod.
07:43.7
Where BPOs are heading towards because they're economic magnets.
07:49.4
And those are the areas where we are expanding to cover the SMEs.
07:55.6
That are born out of these areas.
07:59.0
Eastern Communications is banking on the commencement of the Philippine Domestic Submarine Cable Network,
08:04.4
which is considered the longest in the country, to roll out its services to more islands.
08:09.7
The company, however, is only focused on business clients for now, as it offers ICT solutions and not just internet connectivity.
08:19.2
You sell connectivity together with ICT because they will be able to experience and enjoy connectivity only.
08:25.6
Uninterrupted connectivity and with all the applications and whatnot if they have ICT.
08:31.5
Data centers. We provide both data center hosting and as well as cloud hosting.
08:39.6
So we have our own cloud offering called Eastern Cloud.
08:44.9
And we also have other things such as cyber security.
08:51.7
Eastern Communications is seeing double-digit growth this year.
08:55.6
As it also plans to grow its 6.1% market share in the B2B segment this year.
09:01.9
Jackie Pascual, ABS-CBN News.
09:06.7
Her next guest just raised 4.3 billion pesos from its preferred shares offering its first fundraising activity since its stock market debut in June 2017.
09:16.9
To help bankroll upcoming projects, Visman developer Cebulan Masters COO Franco Soberano joins us live.
09:24.0
Franco, hi. Long time no see.
09:25.6
Long time no see. Always a pleasure to be here, Mimi. And good morning to all our viewers today.
09:31.8
Alright, good morning. So 4.3 billion pesos. How far will that money go before you find the need to raise money again?
09:40.2
Well, it will definitely accelerate our projects or at the very least help us stay on track with our program for the year.
09:51.1
These are going into our housing projects in Butuan.
09:55.6
A few in Cebu and Davao and Palawan.
09:58.9
So we're very thankful to our underwriters and the whole team who made this possible for us.
10:05.1
We did hear it was 1.4 times oversubscribed.
10:09.3
So what are your priority projects in the pipeline?
10:11.9
You're known mostly as a Visman developer, one of the biggest in the country.
10:15.7
But about two or three weeks ago, we did speak to your CFO, Grant, and he did say that you guys are looking to enter the Luzon market.
10:25.6
Yes. In fact, we are putting up our office in Makati. I should be there more often.
10:33.7
Luzon is a natural progression for us. The Visman market is still very ripe. It's still under tap.
10:41.4
But we feel like we want to create more awareness about Cebu Landmasters and the great things we're doing in Luzon.
10:47.3
We have a very generous type of housing development and we want our friends in Luzon to experience that as well.
10:54.6
Okay. Can you give us more?
10:55.6
Can you give us more details on what project in Luzon you're going to be working on? What we can expect from you soon?
11:01.5
You did say Palawan earlier.
11:04.0
Yes. We consider Palawan as really part of Calabar Zone.
11:09.4
But mainland Luzon, we're looking at Cavite. We've been looking at Kamsur.
11:15.3
And even some key areas in Metro Manila are being considered.
11:19.7
I cannot disclose too much, but we'll definitely be there soon.
11:23.2
And by soon, is that going to happen?
11:25.6
Within the year?
11:27.2
Yes. Within the year, we've been disclosing to the public that we intend to acquire some properties in Luzon this year.
11:34.6
So I've been flying to Manila a lot the past few months. So it's definitely going to happen.
11:40.1
And what can we expect from your Luzon foray? Is this mostly going to be high-rise residential projects or more of your mixed use with retail and hotel?
11:50.5
We want to start with our housing. Housing is our bread and butter.
11:55.6
We've been doing housing since 2003.
11:58.2
So our entry point would be, I would say, economic to mid-market housing.
12:02.9
However, there's a lot of interest in CLI.
12:08.9
There are several landowners in Manila asking us to look at their prime Metro Manila property.
12:13.7
So we are also not closing our doors to vertical development in Metro Manila.
12:19.1
As you know, in BISMIN, we've done everything from vertical to offices to hotels.
12:24.8
So we're ready.
12:25.7
We're ready to take on the challenge in Luzon.
12:29.2
It seems like you are going to be very, very busy.
12:33.5
But when you think about the industry in general, the real estate market, what are you seeing?
12:39.2
What's the experience on the ground when it comes to, you know, everybody's talking about higher interest rates, soaring inflation, very sticky.
12:47.6
So the cost of goods, even, you know, the minimum wage increase that we're all talking about, it's going to impact your industry, huh?
12:56.3
Well, there have always been headwinds, Mimi.
13:01.2
In real estate, there are a lot of challenges thrown at the developer.
13:07.1
But if you look at our numbers, we've grown every year since our IPO before then.
13:13.5
Because fundamentally, really, I keep repeating this, there is a lack of supply in residential development and there's increasing demand.
13:23.7
Um, I would say, you know, there's a lack of supply in residential development and there's increasing demand.
13:25.5
Um, I would say, you know, there's a lack of supply in residential development and there's increasing demand.
13:25.7
But I would say, if you let the numbers settle down, right, we actually have a very strong employment rate.
13:33.7
There is really low unemployment, meaning you have a workforce that's earning, that workforce that's emerging into the middle class and ready to purchase their first home.
13:45.0
And you still have a very strong overseas Filipino market that's really looking to the rest of the Philippines.
13:51.2
Uh, I would say residential market, especially in the middle class.
13:55.5
Especially in the middle market, an affordable segment, it's really our silver lining in the market.
14:01.3
Um, in the first quarter, we sold more than 5 billion of real estate in the first quarter alone.
14:08.4
Um, more than the previous year.
14:10.7
So, for us, at least in CLI, we see a lot of positive indicators for us.
14:17.4
Um, and that is going to push us forward up to the rest of the year.
14:22.8
Have you had to raise prices significantly?
14:25.5
Just to cope with higher cost of raw materials, higher cost of labor, higher cost of financing?
14:32.8
Yeah, I would say from before pandemic, right, uh, to today, let's say prices have increased at least 10%, uh, to at most 20%.
14:42.7
So, it's a job of the developer to, uh, make sure how can my unit still be accessible and attainable.
14:50.2
Now, we give, uh, really nice terms.
14:53.0
We allow them to pay down payment.
14:55.5
We allow them to pay down payment over four years, uh, sometimes at five years.
14:58.7
So, it's about the developer also finding a way to make it easier for the buyer.
15:04.2
And I think that's where CLI is so, it's so natural for us to make adjustments right away.
15:08.9
You know, we don't, like, sit on it for a few months.
15:11.9
We, we, we tackle it overnight, you know, these adjustments.
15:16.1
All right.
15:16.4
That's how, how, uh, you know, we, we try to do things at Sibulan Masters.
15:20.2
And it helps that, uh, you're, you're very close to the big boss, your dad.
15:23.7
I wonder.
15:25.5
Let's say that Sibulan Masters started back in 2003, which makes the company 21 years old this year, legal.
15:34.6
And you guys listed in 2017, which means you're about eight, seven, eight years listed company already.
15:42.8
What is Franco Soberano's CLI story?
15:46.1
Do, do you remember how this all started with your dad?
15:48.5
On a more personal note.
15:50.4
Yeah, um, I was actually working in a multinational.
15:53.6
And, uh, I saw how, uh, real estate was really impacting lives in a very positive way.
16:00.8
We, we were about to launch our first condominium in 2009.
16:04.7
And I saw, wow, in a condo project, we can hire 500 to 1,000 construction workers at the very least.
16:10.8
We support more than 30 suppliers.
16:13.4
Uh, and, and I was sold.
16:15.0
I, I was not really heavily recruited by my father.
16:18.8
But, uh, I was very impressed with the way he handled things.
16:21.7
And I joined him, uh, back then.
16:23.6
And, um, my story really a story of, um, uh, I would say a second generation, uh, real estate developer that, that wanted to professionalize the business and, and saw eye to eye with the founder.
16:36.7
And, and it's really like that.
16:38.3
It's us working, uh, as a second generation, staying humble, uh, staying hungry at the same time and seeing eye to eye with our first generation of the business.
16:48.6
And, and we have a very united family.
16:50.6
Uh, we, we're only, uh, five family members.
16:53.6
In the business.
16:54.6
But we are 900 employees already.
16:56.3
So, uh, we, we thank, uh, we're very thankful now that it's worked out so far very well.
17:02.3
And, uh, what do you say to shareholders who are still waiting for the share price to pop?
17:08.2
I, I would say, uh, we're very true.
17:10.9
Uh, we, we reported record results.
17:14.0
Uh, we're on track to have another banner year on our 21st year or our legal year as, uh, Mimi has put it.
17:22.7
Um.
17:23.6
Uh, yeah, I mean, there's a lot to be excited about.
17:26.4
We're due.
17:27.2
Uh, our value is getting more obvious as each day passes by.
17:31.4
So, uh, I'd like to thank you for your loyalty and thank you for your patience.
17:35.2
But, uh, we're definitely due for that pop.
17:37.7
Yeah.
17:38.0
All right.
17:38.6
We're looking forward to celebrate that pop with you.
17:41.1
Thank you so much, Franco, for joining us.
17:43.5
Always a pleasure to speak with you and thank you for sharing some inside stories about CLI.
17:47.9
Thank you.
17:48.8
See you soon.
17:49.2
Thank you always for the support.
17:50.3
See you.
17:50.6
Bye.
17:51.1
All right.
17:51.8
Now, moving on, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, expects the Philippine peso to stay volatile in the short term due to the constant repricing of interest rates expectations in the U.S.
18:03.9
It says, despite weakening by around 2% year to date, the Philippine peso has held up relatively well compared to its regional peers, even defying expectations for an appreciation in the first quarter of the year.
18:17.5
Look at that chart.
18:18.3
The Philippines, uh, the Philippine peso up by...
18:21.8
Three, four percent.
18:23.6
We're in the middle of the pack, really, when you look at our forex exchange converted to U.S. dollars year to date.
18:30.3
BMI expects the volatility to start easing, though, once the U.S. Federal Reserve embarks on its first cut, which it thinks will happen in July, with the peso seen stabilizing at the 56.50 to the dollar handle.
18:43.5
On the longer term, though, BMI says weak fundamentals should constrain any appreciatory pressures on the peso, with the peso now trading above.
18:51.8
The peso is now at its 10-year average by about 8%, suggesting it's now undervalued relative to its long-term trend.
18:58.4
BMI expects the peso to stay on its depreciatory trend, weakening to 57.20 against the greenback by the end of next year or 2025.
19:09.7
Shifting gears now, only 1% of government's irrigation facilities have been affected by extreme heat.
19:15.3
This is according to the Philippine Irrigation Administration, which attributes this to its preparedness for the hot weather.
19:21.0
The Philippines, uh, the Philippine peso is now at its 10-year average by about 8%, suggesting it's now undervalued relative to its long-term trend.
19:21.8
Months of March, April and May are usually the hottest for the Philippines
19:25.3
but temperatures have been exacerbated by the prevailing El Nino.
19:29.4
The country's El Nino task force has said
19:31.5
the dry spell is projected to affect all but two Philippine provinces by the end of this month
19:36.4
although it did not identify which two provinces will not be affected.
19:43.0
Lahat naman po ng ating irrigation system ay may epekto po ng El Nino.
19:48.2
Pero dahil po dito sa ating alternate wetting and drying technology na tinatawag
19:53.1
nabawasan po namin yung mga affected areas
19:57.4
kasi kung ginawa mo po itong AWD, nakakatipid ka ng 20 to 30 percent ng patubig
20:03.3
at tumataas pa po ang yield ng ating mga farmers.
20:05.9
Napaghandaan po ng gusto ng niya ito.
20:11.3
The Philippine Energy Department assures the public of an adequate power supply for the entire summer
20:16.5
even after major power growth.
20:18.2
Grids in the country were placed on alert due to the extreme heat that caused electricity demand to spike.
20:24.5
Alvin El Chico tells us more.
20:28.2
The Luzon electricity grid was plunged into red alert status until 11 p.m. on Tuesday
20:33.5
after 19 power plants bogged down.
20:36.8
The Visayas grid was also on yellow alert until 9 p.m. the same day due to insufficient power generation.
20:48.2
At meron po tayong karagdagang 300 megawatts na D-rate
20:53.1
o kulang po ang kanilang inasahang output po ng kuryente.
20:57.8
Kung ikukumpara niyo po, 700 megawatts lang po yung nakascheduled maintenance shutdown for Luzon.
21:04.1
So malaki po talaga ang dagok ng grand shutdown when it comes to supply.
21:09.9
Power utility Maralco has announced a tentative rotating interruption schedule starting at 2 p.m.
21:15.5
but supply was able to sustain the demand.
21:18.2
As the utility was able to muster enough participants for its interruptible load program or ILP.
21:24.5
ILP means big businesses use their own power generators
21:27.7
so that the limited power supply will remain sufficient for ordinary customers.
21:33.0
Maralco says it remains to be seen if the situation will go back to normal by Wednesday.
21:38.8
If we need to implement measures such as rotating interruptions in some areas,
21:48.2
areas of our franchise, then we will inform our customers ahead of time
21:54.4
and to please bear with us in case that happens.
21:57.7
Based on the monitoring of the Philippine Rural Electric Cooperatives,
22:01.1
some areas in Isabela under the cooperative ISELCO II had experienced power interruption.
22:07.4
The energy department had repeatedly assured earlier that electricity supply will be enough for the entire summer season.
22:14.3
DOE Assistant Secretary Mario Marasigan claims,
22:17.5
the sudden shutdown will be enough for the entire summer season.
22:18.2
The sudden shutdown of a plant in Quezon triggered the Red Alerts situation.
22:33.2
But why would 18 other power plants bog down at the same time?
22:42.1
From plant outage, maintenance outage, biglang nag-extend.
22:46.7
So bukod doon sa masakit,
22:48.2
meron pa tayong ibang plants na ganoon confirm kailan sila makakabalik.
22:53.0
The DOE says some plants will only be back in operation by weekend,
22:57.5
which means aside from relying on the Interruptible Load Program,
23:01.7
consumers need to reduce electricity use to control demand and avoid power outage.
23:08.3
Alvin Olchico, ABS-CBN News.
23:12.8
Authorities seeing better, more stable power conditions today, Wednesday,
23:16.6
after power interruptions.
23:18.2
The National Grid Corporation says some plants are now back up and running in Luzon and Visayas
23:24.7
after they underwent forced outage.
23:27.5
The Energy Department says a boiler tube leak was among the reasons behind the sudden forced outage
23:32.0
of most of the power plants.
23:34.2
Now despite this, the NGCP says it will still place both Luzon and Visayas under yellow alert
23:39.2
starting 2 this afternoon until later at night.
23:43.1
More than 20 power plants shut down Tuesday while 3 others were running on derated power.
23:48.2
The incident forced the NGCP to place Luzon and Visayas under red alert.
23:55.8
Now here's a look at the other stories we're tracking in the newsroom today.
23:59.2
Happening within the hour,
24:00.8
Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, J. Tariela,
24:04.6
will be holding a press conference.
24:07.0
We also cover another FOCAP event, this time tackling the Philippines and the U.S.'s 39th joint military exercises this year
24:15.4
as the country shifts toward maritime defense.
24:18.2
Alongside a growing band of international allies.
24:21.7
Also happening at 9,
24:23.8
Padangyake Integrated Terminal Exchange Authorities and the Society of Philippine Motoring Journalists
24:28.8
will discuss the PUV modernization program as well as the government's motor taxi pilot study.
24:35.5
While in the next hour at around 10,
24:37.9
we will have the Philippine Central Bank Governor, Elie de Molona,
24:41.2
holding his usual press briefing.
24:44.4
We also cover a DOJ media forum on judiciary.
24:47.0
This is happening in the...
24:48.2
Baguio City today.
24:49.9
Among the topics on tap are strategic plan for judicial innovations,
24:54.5
gender sensitivity and use of gender-fair language,
24:57.4
as well as freedom of expression for journalists.
25:02.7
Time for a short break.
25:04.0
Up next, the PSC's opening numbers following Tuesday's bloodbath
25:07.4
with Sun Life Investment Management's boss, Mike Enriquez.
25:11.9
Stay where you are.
25:13.0
Market Edge.
25:13.7
We'll be right back.
25:18.2
You're still watching Market Edge.
25:43.4
The headlines, the jury in Donald Trump's historic criminal trial,
25:47.1
taking shape.
25:48.4
With seven New Yorkers selected.
25:53.0
The Philippine Justice Department orders a probe
25:56.3
on the call of a House lawmaker for state forces
25:59.7
to withdraw support for the president.
26:05.2
And the U.S. and the European Union moving to expand sanctions on Iran
26:08.9
after its unprecedented attack on Israel.
26:16.0
Philippines shares suffering their largest...
26:18.2
Sell-off for the year with an index falling 2.4% to close at 64.04.
26:23.9
That is a four-month low.
26:25.6
In fact, the drop is the steepest one-day decline since December 2022.
26:30.2
Now, from an 8% gain in the first three months of the year,
26:32.7
the index is now down three-quarters of 1% year-to-date.
26:36.2
Joining us this morning for more on the markets is Mike Enriquez.
26:39.1
He's president of Sun Life Investment Management.
26:42.7
Hi, Mike.
26:43.6
Welcome to Market Edge.
26:44.3
Hi, good morning.
26:45.5
Morning, Mimi.
26:46.5
What a day.
26:47.7
What a day.
26:48.3
It was a bloodbath on the trading floor yesterday.
26:51.3
Help us make sense of the market's sell-off.
26:53.4
Is this the market in panic?
26:57.2
Well, again, exciting times again for the market.
27:00.5
Finally, there's volatility again.
27:02.5
I mean, we've been very narrow on our trading bands
27:08.0
and just now that we've been experiencing some volatility again in the market.
27:12.5
But to answer your question, Mimi, I don't think this is some panic.
27:16.4
I think...
27:17.0
If you see the volumes on a daily basis, the average daily turnover,
27:21.5
I don't think it's quite significant.
27:23.7
Again, a lot of these things, the sell-off usually happens towards the close.
27:29.2
So, I don't see this quite alarming.
27:32.5
Again, this has been just some profit-taking mixed with some negative sentiment
27:38.6
due to what's happening offshore.
27:41.3
Okay.
27:42.1
Well, it feels that way right now, at least in the first five minutes of trade.
27:46.0
The index has regained some ground.
27:48.6
Five minutes into trade for the day, the index is up nine-tenths of one percent, 55 points.
27:52.9
We're at 64-60.
27:57.9
When you say some negative factors, is it just the Fed?
28:01.6
Is it just the BSP and rate expectations?
28:05.6
Is it mostly that?
28:08.2
I think the market just reacted to the disappointing news that instead of the second half,
28:15.2
there might be a chance it might be delayed further on the rate cuts.
28:19.4
But I think that's just expressing that disappointment of the market overall.
28:26.9
But I think if you look at it and dissect,
28:29.6
nothing has really changed fundamentally for the Philippine market.
28:33.4
Again, we would probably expect first-quarter earnings to be quite strong again
28:39.2
for the same sectors that we all favor.
28:42.5
So,
28:43.8
and
28:44.5
we're
28:45.2
We also need to understand the magnitude of the rate cuts that we are expecting.
28:53.0
I don't think we will expect massive rate cuts to happen.
28:57.7
From the original 50 to 75 basis points, it will just be probably delayed by a few months.
29:06.1
So, I don't see this to be quite alarming.
29:09.5
But of course, for traders and the market players,
29:14.1
it's an opportunity.
29:15.2
For them to react to this and induce some volatility in the market.
29:20.4
All right.
29:21.6
You know, there's a saying,
29:23.1
sell in May and go away.
29:24.7
We're clearly getting ahead of that,
29:26.5
at least for yesterday,
29:28.1
getting fooled by April.
29:29.7
If you think about it though,
29:31.1
we've been seeing the steady decline since the start of the month of April.
29:35.4
Would you say that April is,
29:37.5
you did say nothing fundamentally has changed about the Philippine economy,
29:41.2
but has the recent market movements,
29:43.6
the recent weeks changed?
29:45.2
What's your view and strategy in the market?
29:47.1
I mean, when you've got your clients asking you what to do,
29:50.3
what do you tell them?
29:52.4
Okay, yes, many over the short term,
29:54.1
definitely there might be some adjustments on our allocation.
29:57.8
I think we're taking advantage of this recent volatility,
30:03.0
rebalancing the equity portfolio,
30:05.6
favoring more of the sectors,
30:07.5
which we think can definitely take advantage of this prolonged high interest rates,
30:14.9
for longer.
30:16.0
So, and these are the banks.
30:18.0
Again, this is not favorable for the property sector.
30:23.6
Inflation continues to be a bit more persistent than what we expected to be.
30:30.4
So, again, that might hamper some sentiment.
30:34.2
But overall, as I mentioned,
30:36.0
this is something for us to take advantage of,
30:39.3
especially the ones who were left behind when the market rallied unexpectedly.
30:44.9
Faster than expected to closer to 7,000.
30:48.3
And we all realize that there are a lot of sellers
30:51.2
who were inching to get out of the market
30:56.7
from their investments at near the 7,000 level.
30:59.9
And I think this time around,
31:01.6
it's something for us to be able to load up again
31:04.4
on the names that we like
31:06.5
and get out of the names we are overvalued
31:11.4
and move to the names that we think that
31:14.0
are quite cheap after this sell-off in the market.
31:17.9
All right.
31:18.5
I want to go over some interesting corporate stories.
31:21.8
Yesterday, actually, the past couple of days,
31:24.9
we have been hearing from the SEC and the PSC
31:27.2
about Abra Mining shares.
31:29.6
The PSC yesterday saying they're going to proceed
31:32.1
with involuntary deal listing proceedings against Abra Mining.
31:36.0
They're saying minority shareholders may seek legal remedies on their own.
31:39.6
This is about the SEC finding that there's a discrepancy,
31:43.2
a big discrepancy between the number of shares
31:46.1
that were trading at the PSC
31:47.6
versus the number of shares that were issued and authorized.
31:51.4
Just very quickly,
31:52.6
we're seeing more and more names delist from the stock exchange,
31:56.5
whether that's voluntary or involuntary.
31:59.1
What do you make of this?
32:00.2
And how bad is it for maybe the reputation of the exchange
32:07.1
and of being a listed company here?
32:10.0
Yes, Mimi.
32:10.9
I think that's definitely something
32:12.9
that we are watching closely.
32:14.8
And we all would like to see deepening of the capital market,
32:20.5
especially the Philippine equity market.
32:22.8
And of course, looking at a lot of these names,
32:27.6
whether small company or large company being delisted,
32:31.7
definitely hampers the liquidity that we would like to see more of.
32:36.4
So I guess we would like to see more IPOs to materialize down the road.
32:42.9
We are more concerned on the names that are being delisted,
32:51.4
especially the ones that have good track record,
32:54.2
have high market capitalization.
32:56.7
And now we're, especially foreign investors,
33:00.9
we only gravitate to a handful of names.
33:04.8
And we would like to diversify more
33:06.8
the number of companies in various sectors.
33:11.1
So as there would be,
33:12.9
always an opportunity for investors to come in
33:17.7
into the local market
33:19.2
and not just the same old sectors that we are used to.
33:24.1
All right.
33:24.8
We are watching very closely the IPO pipeline.
33:27.9
We also have this.
33:29.0
In recent days,
33:29.9
AC Logistics saying that they're closing Entrego,
33:33.1
which they bought a few years back,
33:35.2
and integrating Entrego, the logistics business,
33:37.7
with the Air21 group as part of streamlining.
33:40.6
So this is maybe a neutral news.
33:42.9
For AC Logistics.
33:43.8
How about this?
33:44.7
GSIS raising its stake in RL Commercial REIT to 8.2%.
33:49.8
That's worth about 4.4 billion pesos.
33:53.3
That's raising their stake by, what, 10 times in just two months.
33:57.1
What do you think is GSIS seeing?
33:59.5
Maybe in RCR or in REITs in general?
34:04.9
Well, definitely that's something that is a diversifying move for GSIS
34:10.5
for that pension.
34:12.9
They need to ensure that there's ample cash flow for their investments.
34:18.2
So definitely that's a good move.
34:21.4
Diversifying from pure fixed income.
34:23.7
And now REITs can be a good alternative for fixed income,
34:29.2
both capital growth and dividend play.
34:32.2
And I think the Robinson's Land REITs as well,
34:36.2
diversify not only on office sector,
34:40.0
but also some of their malls.
34:42.3
So I think it's a good move for GSIS to look into diversifying
34:49.7
in other somewhat fixed income type of investments.
34:56.8
All right.
34:57.3
And we also have, still with the Ayala Group,
35:00.1
the Healthway Cancer Care Hospital is partnering with
35:03.3
the National Cancer Care Singapore for knowledge sharing.
35:06.4
So another good news.
35:07.6
We have this just in, Mike.
35:08.8
I wanted to share Frutas Holdings,
35:11.0
which reported,
35:11.7
a stellar earnings over the yesterday.
35:14.3
It actually happened yesterday.
35:15.7
They say that they've successfully completed
35:17.7
a maiden private placement of 200 million pesos in corporate notes.
35:22.8
Fundraising.
35:23.4
Do you, are you seeing enough fundraising,
35:25.6
you know, to encourage,
35:27.2
to give a very encouraging picture?
35:28.9
Because this is a very future forward looking activity.
35:32.0
They raised funds for expansion, right?
35:34.8
Are you seeing enough of these news?
35:37.2
Yes.
35:37.8
In fact, a lot of the investment bankers
35:40.1
that we've been talking to are,
35:41.7
quite busy right now,
35:43.5
offering a lot of these fundraising opportunities
35:49.0
for us investors.
35:50.9
And I think this is quite good news
35:54.1
for the overall economy.
35:56.7
You get a sense of confidence again
35:58.9
from these companies to start expanding,
36:02.8
borrowing,
36:05.1
in spite of the fact that
36:07.2
we are still at high interest rates, right?
36:11.7
So, again, that's a testament
36:14.1
for them to really be confident
36:16.8
with their businesses,
36:18.2
confident with the overall
36:19.5
fundamental story of the Philippines.
36:21.9
It's why they're taking a view,
36:23.2
they're taking the balance sheet,
36:25.3
risking their balance sheet
36:26.6
in order for them to be able to start expanding.
36:30.1
All right.
36:31.0
Exciting times ahead.
36:32.4
We're actually having Frutas Holdings,
36:34.3
I think, later this week
36:35.4
for a big announcement
36:36.3
for potential M&As.
36:38.0
So, we are watching
36:39.1
what company they're buying this time around.
36:42.0
I think we're now ready
36:43.0
for your blind item.
36:44.3
Talk to us about the stuff
36:45.2
that you're monitoring closely
36:46.1
and that you like.
36:47.2
I think you mentioned the sector earlier already,
36:49.7
but go ahead.
36:50.5
Give us what you got.
36:52.1
Yes, Mimi.
36:53.6
And this is really still
36:55.3
along the lines of
36:57.1
interest rates higher for longer.
37:00.7
This is one of the major banks
37:03.8
in the Philippines.
37:05.0
And we like this particular bank
37:09.6
because it's,
37:11.4
among its peers,
37:14.0
the share price is still trading
37:15.7
about 80% of its book value.
37:19.5
Compared to its peers,
37:21.5
which is trading at least over
37:23.6
one and a half times
37:25.7
its price to book.
37:28.0
Recently, they have been very aggressive
37:30.4
on taking advantage of the loan growth.
37:34.1
They have been expanding their loan book
37:37.0
as well as expanding their net interest margins.
37:40.6
So, this is a good sign.
37:41.3
This is a good story for them.
37:42.3
And I think the biggest game changer
37:45.2
for this company
37:46.2
is when they started
37:47.6
to change their dividend policy.
37:50.3
Especially when they announced
37:52.9
a special dividend.
37:54.2
And we think that
37:55.2
there's momentum
37:57.0
for them to increase their ROE
38:01.4
in order for them to warrant
38:03.6
at least trading at their book value.
38:07.1
With that alone,
38:08.2
if they target their book value,
38:10.1
at least they're still
38:11.3
at least 20%
38:14.0
from the current price.
38:16.4
Alright, 20% sounds good.
38:18.5
On that note, Mike,
38:19.8
always a pleasure to speak with you.
38:21.4
Thank you so much for the time
38:22.5
and the insights.
38:23.3
We'll see you soon.
38:24.8
Thank you, Mimi.
38:26.3
Alright.
38:27.2
We're 16 minutes into trade for the day.
38:29.2
I just wanted to bring you
38:31.1
an update from the
38:33.1
Philippine Stock Exchange.
38:35.1
Let's see where the numbers are.
38:36.7
Again, we're 16 minutes into trade
38:39.0
and the index widening.
38:40.5
It's widening.
38:41.3
It's widening the gains.
38:42.0
It looks like we're regaining
38:43.8
some of the ground we lost yesterday.
38:46.0
Remember, we were down 2.4%.
38:47.8
Right now, we're clowing back
38:49.5
at least 1.1% of that.
38:51.5
The index is up 1.05%.
38:53.4
67 points.
38:54.8
We're at 64.72.
38:56.4
The broader all shares
38:57.3
is also up by 3 quarters of 1%.
38:59.2
All sub-indices firmly
39:01.0
in positive territory
39:02.2
led by financials up by 1.3.
39:05.4
Holding firms by 1.2
39:07.0
and property by 1%.
39:09.6
Alright.
39:10.1
Now,
39:11.3
time to zip through
39:11.9
the top headlines
39:12.5
from major business papers.
39:14.4
Let's start with business world.
39:16.3
The International Monetary Fund
39:17.7
raising its economic growth forecast
39:20.0
for the Philippines
39:20.8
from 6% to 6.2.
39:24.4
This is supposed to reflect
39:25.6
a carryover
39:26.5
from the better than expected
39:28.1
outturn or turnout
39:29.2
in the last quarter of 2023.
39:31.4
The projected GDP growth
39:32.6
is within government's
39:33.7
revised 6% to 7% growth target
39:35.7
and better than the expected
39:37.4
better rather
39:39.0
than the 5.5% GDP growth
39:41.3
actually recorded for 2023.
39:44.1
So it's an acceleration.
39:45.7
From Business Mirror,
39:46.5
the Philippine Central Bank reports
39:47.9
the country's total financial resources
39:49.9
grew 8% to 30.9 trillion pesos
39:53.6
in February of this year
39:55.3
from 28.6 trillion last year.
39:58.6
This on the back of higher resources
40:00.2
among universal and commercial banks.
40:03.6
And from the Philippine Daily Inquirer,
40:05.2
state-run pension fund
40:06.2
government service insurance system
40:07.7
or GSIS
40:08.4
has increased its stake
40:10.0
in Gohoi-led RLBs
40:11.3
to commercial REIT Inc.
40:12.6
by more than 900%
40:14.0
over the last two months.
40:15.8
RCR says GSIS now owns
40:18.0
around 877 million of its shares
40:20.8
equivalent to an 8% stake.
40:23.0
This is what we were talking about
40:24.1
earlier with Mike Enriquez.
40:25.8
And based on RCR's share price
40:27.4
on Tuesday,
40:28.6
GSIS's total acquisition
40:30.2
was valued at around
40:31.5
4.3 billion pesos.
40:41.3
For more information,
40:48.4
visit MsKell them.gov
40:58.6
music
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music
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music
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music
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music
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music
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music
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41:41.3
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42:11.3
Thank you for watching!
42:41.3
It also changed its process for supporting countries struggling with debt restructuring,
42:46.1
a move aimed at avoiding recent delays widely blamed on China.
42:49.9
Under the new rules, the IMF would accept what it calls a
42:52.7
credible official creditor process toward financing assurances
42:57.0
rather than a finalized agreement to avoid waiting for China's process to play out.
43:02.2
China, the biggest creditor to emerging markets in recent years,
43:05.2
has come under specific scrutiny lately due to its delays in handling requests to restructure debt.
43:11.3
Now on two more news, voting technology firm Smartmatic and far-right network One American News
43:18.2
had settled a defamation lawsuit stemming from the outlet's lies about the 2020 elections.
43:24.3
Smartmatic filed the lawsuit in 2021 after the outlet falsely claimed the voting company rigged
43:30.7
the 2020 U.S. presidential elections to help Joe Biden beat Donald Trump.
43:35.5
Smartmatic, which had also served in Philippine elections for over a decade but was disqualified last year,
43:41.3
still has lawsuits pending against Fox News and Newsmax over their election coverage.
43:47.8
Over in Canada, it's offering more tax breaks to automotive firms to put their electric vehicle factories in the country.
43:55.0
The tax credit projected to cost $1 billion by 2035 is meant to encourage firms to choose Canada for their manufacturing process,
44:03.7
which would create more jobs in the country.
44:06.4
Aside from this, Ottawa also unveiled a new tax measure for the rich.
44:10.5
People realize that the U.S. government is not going to be able to do anything about it.
44:11.3
The U.S. government's housing capital tax gains of more than $180,000 will pay tax on the Xs at a rate of 66.7%, up from the present 50%.
44:20.8
The money from the new taxes will help government fund its housing programs.
44:26.8
Meanwhile, Elon Musk expected to meet with Indian space startups when he visits the South Asian country next week.
44:33.5
India's national space program has had some recent successes,
44:37.2
becoming the first country to land a spacecraft near the moon's south.
44:41.3
It's also planning its first crewed mission next year.
44:45.9
Musk's visit could also pave the way for SpaceX's Starlink to break into the world's most populous nation.
44:53.2
And finally, Adidas lifts its 2024 profit outlook after a better-than-expected first-quarter performance.
45:00.5
The company now expects full-year operating profit of about $744 million, up from $531 million previously estimated.
45:08.7
Adidas says quarterly operating profit,
45:11.3
reached over $356 million, up from $63 million just a year earlier.
45:22.0
Now, a new Taylor Swift comic book set to hit shelves this month.
45:27.0
Tidal Wave's comic says the sequel to Female Force, Taylor Swift,
45:30.8
delivers an engaging narrative that delves deeper into the pop superstar's philanthropic endeavors.
45:37.0
Going beyond the glitz and glamour of Swift's stardom,
45:40.3
it spotlights her contributions,
45:41.1
to various charitable causes,
45:44.0
underscoring her commitment to making a difference in the lives of her fans and the larger community.
45:49.6
And in line with Swift's philanthropic spirit,
45:52.3
a portion of the sales will go to the Humane Society.
45:58.1
And before we go, for those who tried to guess the blind item,
46:01.0
this is the pic of Mike Enriquez of Sun Life.
46:04.2
He says some of the major developments,
46:07.3
it declared special dividends starting this year,
46:10.5
plus,
46:11.1
it's trading at 80% of its book-to-value,
46:14.3
book value rather,
46:15.7
giving it a 20% upside.
46:18.2
In share price,
46:19.2
this stock is,
46:20.2
I think it's a very easy get.
46:22.9
This is Metro Bank.
46:24.2
Do let us know if you got that.
46:25.1
Do tweet us at ANC Alerts.
46:26.8
In the meantime, that's it for the show.
46:28.3
I'm Michelle Long.
46:29.3
Thank you so much for watching.
46:30.7
Stay safe and stay with ANC.
46:36.9
If we do follow the health protocols,
46:39.6
the ability of people,
46:40.8
people to move around will likely...