PH-JAPAN-U.S. SUMMIT vs CHINA
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06:28.0
Yamas, na yung mga ganyang
06:29.4
trilateral summits, yung ganyang kaimportante
06:32.1
na high-level discussion, hindi siya
06:34.0
nangyayari overnight. Kumbaga meron lead-up yan.
06:36.7
May building blocks toward
06:38.1
that. Kaya ng tanong,
06:39.7
on the side of the Philippines, kasi minsan
06:42.0
pag binabasa ng mga tao, yung mga
06:44.1
reports coming from the foreign press,
06:46.3
medyo ano eh, macro yung
06:47.9
perspective. And from the
06:50.0
perspective of the US siguro, pag-usapan
06:51.9
natin yung perspective ng Pilipinas
06:54.0
na sinasabi nga, tayo yung ano dyan eh,
06:58.1
dyan sa trilateral
07:00.0
summit na yan. What
07:05.2
out of this summit?
07:08.4
Well, yung consistent
07:10.1
dun sa statement ng DFA,
07:12.2
ang spin nga dyan ay
07:15.3
comprehensive. Hindi lang ito
07:17.5
military at security. Kung hindi,
07:19.8
merong cultural, merong
07:24.4
So, pag-uusapan dito
07:27.8
yung combination ng hard
07:29.9
at saka soft power.
07:31.5
So, cultural nga at saka yung
07:34.9
At ito ay nangyayari
07:43.8
US ay nag-propose ng
07:45.5
2.8 billion dollar
07:47.9
na increased military aid
07:51.2
Yun yung nangyayari. Kaya,
07:54.4
ni Babes Romualdez daw,
07:56.1
today, hindi ko naman narinig na sinabi niya,
07:58.7
sabi lang ng mga reporter,
08:00.4
ay meron daw 100 billion
08:04.1
commitment ang US sa
08:06.3
Pilipinas in the next 5 to 10 years.
08:09.0
Medyo malaki yun.
08:10.2
Ano yan? Military support?
08:12.6
Ano yan? Economic.
08:15.9
Basically, infrastructure daw,
08:17.9
connectivity, etc. Medyo malaki
08:23.3
hindi ko alam. Dahil,
08:24.4
yung dalawang trips
08:26.1
ni President Bongbong sa US
08:28.2
ay nakakuha siya ng mga 4 billion,
08:30.7
5 billion dollar na aid
08:34.4
Pero, hindi ko alam kung
08:36.0
na-deliver na yun. Yung
08:37.6
4 to 5 billion dollars na yan.
08:39.8
Doon sa kanyang dalawang trips
08:43.8
skeptical kasi ako sa mga ganyang klaseng
08:48.0
Lalo na kung commitment pa lang.
08:52.1
yung ating comparative advantage,
08:54.4
namang gano'n kataas pa.
08:58.1
Tama ba yung dating sa akin yan?
09:00.6
Sorry ah, yung comparative advantage.
09:02.5
Ibig sabihin, considering how
09:04.3
important the Philippines is
09:08.9
hindi gano'ng kalaki na kukuha natin
09:10.4
in return. Kasi matagal na debate na yan eh.
09:13.8
historically maliit. Pero,
09:16.8
siyempre, pag ganyang 100 billion,
09:19.1
hindi naman yan commitment
09:20.1
ng US government.
09:22.1
Commitment yan ng mga negosyante nila.
09:24.4
Yung mga negosyante, ang primary
09:26.5
na kuha nila, hindi naman geopolitics eh.
09:28.8
Ang primary concern nila ay kita.
09:32.7
may kaunting influence yung geopolitics.
09:34.5
Paano tutulungan yung isang bansa
09:36.5
na kaalyado nila, laban sa
09:38.6
kanilang main enemy.
09:40.9
Pero, ang dominant pa rin
09:42.6
talaga dyan, ay negosyo.
09:46.5
hindi ako magugulat kung masaya ang China
09:48.5
kung halimbawa, isang negosyante
09:50.7
ang maging presidente ng
09:52.0
US sa November elections.
09:54.4
Dahil natingin nila,
09:56.4
dahil natingin nila,
09:58.5
parang ang dami natang kandidato.
10:02.2
Oo, ang hirap ulaan.
10:04.8
Kaya, yun yung panila,
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will do business.
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A businessman will negotiate.
10:14.9
Mas optimistic sila
10:16.1
kung negosyante ang mananalo.
10:18.9
yung tawag nila ideological
10:22.0
party na democratic party.
10:24.4
Natingin nila, mas may ideology yan.
10:28.0
Kumpara dun sa negosyante.
10:30.5
Na kahit may partido,
10:32.3
ay walang malino na ideology.
10:37.2
Ito, ano ba yung, gano'n baka
10:38.3
importante yung alliance in particular
10:40.4
ng Pilipinas with Japan
10:42.0
and the United States in terms
10:44.5
of dealing with China's
10:46.3
aggression sa West Philippine Sea?
10:48.8
Kasi alam natin na strategy ng China
10:50.6
dyan. Hindi, binabakuran yan, diba?
10:52.8
Tayo lang mag-usap.
10:54.4
Walang pakailam dito yung US
10:55.9
tsaka ibang mga bansa.
10:57.8
Yun yung naratibo na nilalabanan eh.
11:00.3
Well, mahilaga yan sa
11:01.9
konteksto ng kanilang
11:03.5
geopolitics at saka foreign policy.
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Dahil hindi lang naman yung trilateral
11:07.6
na yan ang nandito. Meron pa yung
11:09.5
quad, diba? Australia,
11:12.1
India, US, Japan.
11:13.8
Tapos ngayon, pumapasok na rin yung
11:15.7
Europe. Yung mga battleships ng
11:17.6
UK, France, dumadaan na rin dito.
11:21.5
nagiging kwalito eh.
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Yung usual na alliance
11:29.3
US, tsaka Japan. Ngayon,
11:30.8
pumapasok na rin ang South Korea,
11:32.5
pumapasok na rin ang New Zealand,
11:34.3
pumapasok ang India, etc.
11:36.5
So, nakakaroon ka ng
11:37.7
something much bigger
11:39.9
kung titignan mo yung history
11:44.1
dito sa region na ito.
11:48.2
Contra po sa China.
11:50.3
At pakikita mo rin, nag-scale up din yung China.
11:53.3
Sinabayan itong trilateral,
11:54.4
yung visit ng isang
11:58.3
ng Taiwan, si President Ma.
12:02.1
Tapos, nung nagkaroon ng balikatan,
12:06.4
sinabayan din ang military
12:08.2
exercises ng China.
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So, kung baka hindi
12:12.2
yung papalampasin ng China, sasabayan din
12:14.3
nila yung ganyang klaseng
12:18.4
meetings, at saka
12:20.1
military exercises.
12:21.8
Kaya, ang sinasabi nga ng iba,
12:24.4
eh, paano kung magkaroon ng aksidente?
12:26.7
Dahil, kung sobrang dami
12:28.5
ng mga military exercises
12:30.1
in the same area,
12:32.3
eh, baka magkaroon ng kwan.
12:38.3
may mga problema,
12:40.7
may mga personal problems,
12:42.5
may psychological problems,
12:44.4
at baka may mapindot.
12:46.2
At yung napindot niya ay magsimula ng
12:49.1
Grabe naman kayo.
12:51.8
May napindot, ha?
12:54.4
Hindi nakakain na maayos,
12:58.7
katulad nung guest.
13:00.1
O, tuminit ang ulo.
13:02.6
Tuminit ang ulo, mag-cost ng
13:04.8
depression. Paano naka-cost ng depression
13:06.9
yan, eh? Yung pulang ko sa pagkain.
13:10.3
Ano na kung masarap yung pagkain mo.
13:14.1
may mapindot ka. Nasa harapan mo,
13:20.6
Pintutin ko nga to.
13:21.8
Hindi siya maaari.
13:26.2
Pintutin ko nga to.
13:26.7
Hindi siya maaari.
13:28.7
Hindi siya maaari.
13:29.7
Hindi siya maaari.
13:30.0
Hindi siya maaari.
13:30.2
Akala ko nakamubone.
13:33.6
Ande din ang galit, ha?
13:36.2
Hypothetical lang, nakaisip ko lang naman.
13:38.2
Lalo mong kinalaman sa mga...
13:39.5
Makakamang may kinalaman.
13:43.6
Kakapo nagalit sa akin dahil
13:46.4
ang episode na to
13:48.7
hindi pa ako makain.
13:50.2
Makikintinan ko, kumain na ba?
13:53.6
Yung pala galit na galit.
13:54.4
Okay, ano kaya katraso ko sa susunod, no?
13:58.4
Yan ang iniintay natin, eh.
14:02.6
Okay, nabanggit niyo yun, ano, no?
14:04.1
Hindi, wala tuloy ako, no?
14:07.6
Di ba nagkaroon ng military drills, no?
14:10.5
Yung, ano ba ito, yung US, Japan, Australia, tsaka Pilipinas recently.
14:16.0
And I think may susunod pa, no?
14:17.7
Yung mga ganyang drills na yan, others call it a show force.
14:21.6
Would that be enough to somehow dissuade China or make China think twice na teka-teka muna, no?
14:28.7
You might be the largest navy in the world.
14:32.9
Pero hindi nyo pwede basta-basta babuyin o balahurain itong maliit na bansa tulad ng Pilipinas
14:39.2
dahil may rest back yan kung sakasakali.
14:43.2
Dahil within the Communist Party,
14:46.7
meron naman dyang mga dubs na nakikita.
14:51.1
Na hindi pa sila handa para i-engage yung US at yung allies ng US.
14:56.2
Na sila ay still militarily behind, no?
14:59.6
Kaya yung mga more pragmatic, no?
15:07.0
Ay yan yung magdi-dissuade sa kay Xi Jinping na huwag masyadong maging aggressive, no?
15:15.6
So yan yung isang poll, no?
15:18.8
Pero may isa ring poll.
15:20.4
A representative.
15:21.1
A representative ng People's Liberation Army, yung mga hawks na very aggressive.
15:25.3
Na ang tingin nila, hindi sila, it's about saving face, eh.
15:29.4
Mahalaga sa kanila yung face sa mga Chinese, no?
15:32.5
Kaya naghahanda sila, nag-accelerate sila at hindi sila atras sa isang conflict.
15:44.5
Lalo na over the province na tingin nila ay bahagi na.
15:51.1
At si Xi Jinping, yung kanyang political future ay medyo nakatali dyan, no?
15:57.6
Dahil bilang president ng China, marami kang binabalansi.
16:02.0
Binabalansi mo yung mga factions within the Communist Party.
16:05.2
Binabalansi mo yung hawks at yung mga doves.
16:07.8
Binabalansi mo yung malaking middle class sa China na ang kanilang concern ay mas yung economy, no?
16:15.8
So kung magkakaroon ng gera, definitely tatamaan ang economy.
16:21.1
Binabalansi niya lahat yung mga concerns na yan.
16:23.2
Pero napakahalaga rin yung army nila.
16:27.9
The biggest army in the world.
16:29.5
The biggest navy in the world.
16:30.9
Yung People's Liberation Army.
16:32.6
At ang promesa dyan ni Xi Jinping ay mayu-unite yung China during his watch.
16:37.9
Nakuha na niya yung Tibet, yung Xinjiang na medyo nagsisimula kumalas, yung Hong Kong.
16:46.3
Ang huli na lang sa kanyang promesa,
16:51.1
promesa kasi niya hindi 20 pesos na kilo ng bigas.
16:55.8
Ang promesa niya.
16:57.3
Promise na hindi aspiration.
16:59.5
So pag hindi niya nagawa yung promesa niya na iunite ang China sa pamagitan ng pagkuhan ng Taiwan,
17:09.0
eh hindi lang sa Communist Party siya maapektuhan o magiging magkakaroon ng negative na reaction.
17:18.5
Yung napakahalaga na People's Liberation,
17:21.1
So yung kanyang political future or even his survival as the leader of China ay partly nakatali dyan.
17:31.4
Kaya mas complicated yung issue.
17:35.2
At first glance kasi pwede natin sabihin masyadong malayo pa ang China sa US.
17:40.2
At least a decade behind militarily.
17:44.8
Pero things happen eh.
17:51.1
yung hinahabol nilang technology,
17:55.1
yung kanilang quantum technology na hindi pa weaponized at this point.
17:59.1
Pero sila yung mas ahead sa US ng at least 2 years.
18:03.1
Itong quantum technology na ito or quantum communication,
18:07.1
pwede mong ihack yung system, yung communication ng iyong kalaban.
18:13.1
Ibig sabihin hindi mo kinakailangan na maka-leaf-frog militarily ng military hardware.
18:20.1
with quantum communication,
18:22.1
at least theoretically,
18:24.1
kaya mong ihack yung military computer systems ng kalaban.
18:30.1
yun yung mga variables na at play dito.
18:34.1
Nagustuhan niyo ba ang ganitong pagtalakay?
18:37.1
Mag-follow sa INFORMADOR FB page at mag-subscribe sa INFORMADOR YouTube channel.
18:42.1
Ang INFORMADOR ay nilikha ng mga staff ni Atty. Ricky Tumuturgo,
18:48.1
upang lalong lumawak ang inaamal,
18:49.1
lalong lumawak ang inaabot ng pagpapalaganap ng katotohanan at labanan