DDS vs LOYALIST, ALING KAMPO ANG MAS MATINDI?

Video Transcript / Subtitles:( AI generated. About AI subtitles » )

* AI ("Artificial Intelligence") subtitles on Tagalog.com are generated using "Whisper" by OpenAI (the same company that created ChatGPT and DallE2). Results and accuracy may vary.
* The subtitles do include errors occasionally and should only be used as a tool to help with your listening practice.
* You can request this website to create a transcript for a video if one doesn't already exist by clicking the "Request AI Subtitles" button below a video. Transcribing usually takes 30-40% of the length of a video to complete if there are no other videos in the queue. For example, a 21 minute video will take 7-8 minutes to transcribe.
* Running a super fast cloud GPU server to do these transcriptions does cost money. If you have the desire and financial ability, consider becoming a patron to support these video transcriptions, and the other tools and apps built by Tagalog.com

Thank you for watching!

Thank you for watching!

Thank you for watching!

Thank you for watching!

Thank you for watching!

But then this is quite surprising.

29%.

We call them independents in the study.

I do not support the

Marcos administration, the

Duterte family, and the opposition.

29%.

And those ambivalent, 15%.

Meaning, they refused.

So ang laki ng anti-system, if I can

put it that way.

Paalaki din.

But this is a space where the

opposition can build on.

This is a space also that

will be up for grabs if you're

part of the Duterte

alliance building the new

opposition in their view.

And of course, the Marcos administration was trying

to solidify their base.

So 29%.

Where do we locate the

Marcoses, the pro-Marcos support?

It's largely the National Capital Region.

And Visayas.

They're not very strong

at this particular time.

In Mindanao, 17% lang sa kanila.

And

their base of support is

D&E.

So when you go to the Duterte family,

the support, 20%

of adult Filipinos

support the

Duterte family.

Their base is really Mindanao, 53%.

You can see naman.

So talagang may

hold sila sa lugar na yan.

And probably the low numbers

in Mindanao is because of the feud.

I mean, after Mindanao coming out,

I mean, we can see that in, for instance,

the other side survey on the presidential

balls, ang baba lahat dun sa Mindanao.

And then dun sa preference also

for the president, laki ng baksak ni

Marcos sa Mindanao.

You're correct, Richard.

Kasi yung ibang probes natin

on trust and approval,

bumagsak talaga yung support

sa Mindanao, kaya kay President Marcos.

So it's consistent.

And when you look at

the base of support,

it's really Class E.

Okay, so for the

29%, which is significant.

Kaya sila sa Class E, no? Both of them are 30%.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yung mga sa Pilinla is almost identical.

Yeah, pero mas malaki

si Impro Marcos group sa Class D,

which is the big chunk of hire.

The biggest one, which is 55-60%.

Yeah, yeah.

Even of the population in general, adult

Filipino population. So, yeah.

So those who do not support

is still a huge chunk, no?

And those who refuse,

you know, who are ambivalent, basically.

So the 29%, we classify them as independents.

Yeah.

And you'll notice the base of support.

Can you go down to the last three slides?

It's just at the bottom.

Yeah.

So, yeah.

We can put...

Yeah.

Yeah.

Okay ka pala sa Zoom, Richard.

Pwede ka pala.

Partner pala tayo.

Pwede tayo partner sa presentation.

Sige, sir.

Okay.

Ako yung research assistant.

Gawin niyo na lang ako sa...

But look at these numbers.

Okay ba to?

Is this useful?

You look at the male...

Yes!

The demographics of working...

Yeah.

So, at the...

This is how it's spread.

You know, the regional, we know that already.

But urban-rural, it's almost the same.

Yeah, for the Marcos vote.

Yeah.

The pro-Marcos support, not vote, but support.

I'm sorry.

Male-female, almost the same.

But look at the age group.

They're pretty balanced.

Very strong, well-supported in the critical 18 to 35 range.

So that's where there's lots of support.

And you'll be surprised, no?

55 to 64, ito yung Marcos maybes, no?

Ito yung...

Hindi pa naman ako dito sa age group na ito.

Pero alam mo yun, yeah.

The Marcos...

Ang laglanggan.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Okay.

Raghundang laglanggan!

Oh, ka-laglanggan.

So, eto-eto.

I think interesting yung sa educational background ng Marcos supporter, no?

So, you'll see that a big chunk of them are from high-school vocational.

Yeah.

And interesting but not surprising, Iglesia Ni Cristo is a big...

When you look at the religious breakdown, 55% of it.

And that...

And then, of course, you look at the ethnic support, it's basically Ilocano-Tagalog.

Yes.

But there's a very strong Cebuano support pa rin, 22%.

Pero wait lang, Aglipayan, wasn't it found by an Ilocano?

I was just reading about Isabela de los Reyes and then Aglipayan.

But the chunks there are Roman Catholic, Islam.

So, meaning in the terms of the actual percentage that they have as far as the population is concerned.

So, interesting.

But you look at the next slide, which is the Duterte family.

Yeah.

Okay.

Yeah.

So, yeah, you'll notice the support is very different as far as the age groups are concerned.

Yeah, the big supporters are Islam, can you see?

Sixty-six percent.

So, when you look at the religious support.

Clearly, the Mindanao factor there.

Yeah, the Mindanao factor.

Yeah.

So, Mindanao is also their base of support.

And Visaya, 41%.

Can you see?

What's the number?

One percent of Ilocano.

One percent.

Which I wonder, sino tong one percent na may Ilocano toto?

I'm going to research them.

Pagod kayo sa akin.

Uwi ako ng bagay soon.

May one percent.

One percent.

Wow.

Anyway, but this is a snapshot.

This is good.

This is a very helpful professor.

It reinforces the demographics we know about these two political families.

And why they were also very unbeatable together.

Okay?

So, they, meaning, you know, you can understand their base of support.

If they're united, they can really, there will be a lot of continuity as far as government

and politics is concerned, no?

Interesting.

But then, they're bifurcated, not just around personalities and personal interests, but

also along policy lines.

We also know that, di ba?

Right.

And it's become the great divide between the families, no?

One is very supportive of China.

The other one is...

So, not so, not as supportive, no?

Sorry.

Is that yours or mine?

No, I think that probably is yours, bro.

Wala.

No, no.

This is very important because, honestly, for me, the big thing before we talk about

the third part, independence, is, and the reason why I find it very interesting, aside

from the fact na meron mga sub-demographics, this reminds us of the...

Kasi kung titignan mo dito, almost kalahatan ng mga bata.

Sa mga voters, either undecided, independent, or medyo traditional opposition, right?

Kasi pag sinama mo yung dalawa, 31 plus 20, that's just 51%.

So, roughly half of the voters are up for grabs, right?

In a sense, for an...

Yeah, in a sense, yeah.

...to go to Dirt and Marcos.

This is huge.

This is actually very important if you look at it that way.

Assuming someone consolidates them into a third force.

A third force.

So, if you're starting a campaign for the midterms, this is important to...

Take note of.

But this is not surprising.

They're not very strong.

The administration is not very strong in Mindanao.

So, but the thing is, they can consolidate.

When you look at the independents, a lot of them are still in balance.

Luzon, Visayas.

So, you can...

That's up for grabs, talaga.

Lalo na Visayas.

So, this is something that the administration, and even the opposition, whoever, eventually becomes, no?

Or takes...

Takes control of it.

However, it evolves, no?

We'll have to work on.

There's a lot for grabs.

If you put that plus those who did not respond, that's around 45% rigid.

So, up for grabs.

No, I find this very, very helpful.

Thank you so much.

I'll just call you Ranjit na lang kasi, ano?

We want to have you more regular.

At least on a first-name basis na lang.

Yeah, yeah.

Professor, right?

No, no.

This is very, very helpful.

Obviously,

I found nothing shocking in terms of numbers,

except the 1%.

Bakit may 1% pang mga ilo pa?

Mga hudas ka yun.

I'm just kidding.

I'm kidding.

No, kasi I was just in Baguio, di ba?

Last week before I flew into US.

And ang dami mga bumpers.

Where are you now?

Where are you now?

I'm in Berkeley now.

Berkeley.

Okay, okay.

Good.

Kaya may time zone natin.

It's nighttime or late?

It's 9pm right now.

Yeah, exactly.

Okay, that's nice.

Thank you so much for agreeing to morning.

And because later,

we're gonna have Senator Trillianes back again

also on our show.

Pero,

so that's gonna be like 5am my time.

So, medyo you're gonna see more sabog version of me.

5am is not my time talaga.

But,

thank you so much for this.

So, Professor,

can we look at the big picture now?

And also dito sa independence.

What is your read dito sa independence?

Because I also find this very interesting.

Well,

there are Filipinos who are still,

you know,

they may have actually

support.

I mean,

the question is not crafted,

you know,

it still needs a lot of improvement as far as

Medyo generic pa siya.

What about it?

So,

improve this question over time.

This is a,

remember,

this was not developed by Octave,

so the client-based.

The client suggested this question.

And we just ran it.

For them, no?

Operationalize lang kayo.

Oh,

operation.

But it's slight improvements

to improve the validity of the question.

But then again,

we can break this down ideologically.

We try to find out.

A lot of people are out there

who don't see the administration

or the

groups that they want to support.

Okay?

And that's also good, right?

Di ba?

That the company

is not bifurcated by just two families.

Although a big chunk of it is.

Nearly 50%.

No?

I don't know.

More than 50%.

Already,

basically,

the pro-Marcos or pro-Duterte.

But a big chunk is still open

and

is still looking for that group

they want to support.

Or they have support, no?

But we also included the opposition kasi.

That's 4% lang, no?

And so,

they don't see

the Liberal Party

or the opposition

as the group they want to support.

So, that's also good.

You know,

our own,

but one could also argue

there's a divide, di ba?

There's a divide

between those who have already affiliations, no?

And those who do not.

What's relevant for me here

is that it reaffirms

all these old images

of Philippine government and politics, di ba?

That's familial,

it's very personal,

that our divides

are along ethnic cleavages, no?

And that, you know,

the weakness of the party system,

the lack of it, no?

The non-existence of it

has not disciplined our politics,

has made our politics

ill-disciplined

around all this parochialism

and personalism.

Yeah,

but if we had stronger parties,

you know,

we could

see ourselves

be divided along ideas,

ideology,

platforms,

and programs, no?

Instead of just families, no?

But I think a lot of the data

reaffirms all our own,

you know,

consistent images, no?

Of how changeless

Philippine politics seems to be.

But, you know,

there's hope in the 29

and in the 20,

in the 40 percent

who don't have

a position yet.

That's a huge number.

Honestly,

I think I'm more optimistic

than you,

cautiously more optimistic

in a sense that

the two surveys

that we discussed today

are two sides

of the picture, right?

One side is the continuity part,

particularly continuity

in terms of appeal

of the Tulfos

and Dutertes

and the whole

macho populist

kind of appeal.

Although,

both of us argued that

forget about differences

between Dutertes and Tulfos,

the Tulfo brothers themselves

are extremely different

from each other, right?

I have interviewed

in Rafi,

two very different individuals.

I think Rafi is much more

independent so far.

Let's see with Erwin

if he's gonna

hew more towards

the administration

and then Ben Tulfo

is totally

different conversation, right?

But at the same time,

I think the second survey

was very interesting

because almost half

of the voters

were either

independents

or kind of

anti-system or something

which tells you

that there's hope

for change.

Exactly.

Assuming certain things

are done.

Yeah, yeah.

So at one level,

one could construe

continuity and change

from the picture

being shown by the survey.

Although the data

is not enough

to make solid arguments.

But, you know,

there's always that

us taking ourselves

out of the survey

and looking at

the general trajectory

of Philippine politics.

There is a trajectory

for reform.

There's a strong

sense of continuity

as far as government

and politics are concerned.

But there is always

that, you know,

that element of change

that's happening

and being driven

by young people,

by people who

are progressive,

who align themselves

along ideas,

platform,

and, you know,

a belief that,

you know,

democracy and development

can actually happen

if we all work together.

So, you know,

there's always

that movement there.

And, you know,

hopefully that movement

will have more voice

and become more,

you know,

vibrant.

And we hope to see

that, you know,

more survey numbers

in the future

pointing out to this

progressive movement

taking hold of our politics.

And that,

thank you very much,

Professor Rai.

As you can see,

I'm a little sleepy

here.

So, perfect.

Go to sleep first.

Sleep in preparation

for the Senator Trillanes interview.

I know, I know.

There's so much going on.

I still have to write

a piece on the

quad patrols

in West Philippine CNL.

So, thank you so much,

Professor Rai.

This was very helpful data.

And definitely,

I'm going to refer this

to this

in future lectures,

discussions,

and writings.

We hope to have you again

in the near future

as more data,

as more interesting surveys,

as more tightened,

you know,

designed surveys

come in.

Because,

I can see you're hedging

a little bit

in a social scientist way.

I want to jump

into conclusions.

But, as I said,

at least we have something

to hold on to

before we can make

a conjectural

or more than hopefully

conjectural

political analysis.

Thank you very much,

Professor Rangin.

Rai, from OCTA Research

and, of course,

University of the Philippines

Diliman,

Total Science Department

for joining us.

Thank you, Richard.

And thank you to all those

who watched today's podcast.

Thank you.

God bless.

And have a good day,

Paul Sir.

Thank you.

Okay.

Nagustuhan nyo ba

ang ganitong pagtalakay?

Mag-follow sa

Informador FB page

at mag-subscribe

sa Informador YouTube channel.

Ang Informador

ay nilikha ng mga staff

ni Atty. Ricky Tumulay,

Motorgo,

aka Insurecto,

upang lalong lumawak

ang inaabot

ng pagpapalaganap

ng katotohanan

at labanan

ang fake news

at kasalaman.