02:37.9
Marcos administration, the
02:39.8
Duterte family, and the opposition.
02:43.1
And those ambivalent, 15%.
02:46.3
Meaning, they refused.
02:48.2
So ang laki ng anti-system, if I can
02:54.0
But this is a space where the
02:56.0
opposition can build on.
02:57.9
This is a space also that
02:59.9
will be up for grabs if you're
03:02.1
part of the Duterte
03:03.3
alliance building the new
03:06.0
opposition in their view.
03:07.9
And of course, the Marcos administration was trying
03:09.9
to solidify their base.
03:12.8
Where do we locate the
03:15.6
Marcoses, the pro-Marcos support?
03:17.8
It's largely the National Capital Region.
03:23.9
They're not very strong
03:25.8
at this particular time.
03:27.5
In Mindanao, 17% lang sa kanila.
03:31.1
their base of support is
03:34.5
So when you go to the Duterte family,
03:39.5
of adult Filipinos
03:45.5
Their base is really Mindanao, 53%.
03:47.8
You can see naman.
03:50.9
hold sila sa lugar na yan.
03:53.5
And probably the low numbers
03:55.6
in Mindanao is because of the feud.
03:57.6
I mean, after Mindanao coming out,
03:59.9
I mean, we can see that in, for instance,
04:01.8
the other side survey on the presidential
04:04.0
balls, ang baba lahat dun sa Mindanao.
04:06.7
And then dun sa preference also
04:07.8
for the president, laki ng baksak ni
04:09.7
Marcos sa Mindanao.
04:10.9
You're correct, Richard.
04:12.8
Kasi yung ibang probes natin
04:15.6
on trust and approval,
04:17.8
bumagsak talaga yung support
04:19.7
sa Mindanao, kaya kay President Marcos.
04:22.7
So it's consistent.
04:24.6
And when you look at
04:25.8
the base of support,
04:28.1
it's really Class E.
04:32.4
29%, which is significant.
04:34.1
Kaya sila sa Class E, no? Both of them are 30%.
04:36.9
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
04:38.1
Yung mga sa Pilinla is almost identical.
04:41.3
Yeah, pero mas malaki
04:42.4
si Impro Marcos group sa Class D,
04:44.7
which is the big chunk of hire.
04:45.8
The biggest one, which is 55-60%.
04:50.3
Even of the population in general, adult
04:52.3
Filipino population. So, yeah.
04:55.0
So those who do not support
04:56.2
is still a huge chunk, no?
04:58.3
And those who refuse,
04:59.9
you know, who are ambivalent, basically.
05:04.9
So the 29%, we classify them as independents.
05:08.9
And you'll notice the base of support.
05:11.9
Can you go down to the last three slides?
05:13.9
It's just at the bottom.
05:21.9
Okay ka pala sa Zoom, Richard.
05:24.9
Partner pala tayo.
05:25.9
Pwede tayo partner sa presentation.
05:29.7
Ako yung research assistant.
05:32.7
Gawin niyo na lang ako sa...
05:34.7
But look at these numbers.
05:37.7
You look at the male...
05:39.7
The demographics of working...
05:43.7
This is how it's spread.
05:45.7
You know, the regional, we know that already.
05:47.7
But urban-rural, it's almost the same.
05:49.7
Yeah, for the Marcos vote.
05:51.7
The pro-Marcos support, not vote, but support.
05:55.7
Male-female, almost the same.
05:57.7
But look at the age group.
05:58.7
They're pretty balanced.
05:59.7
Very strong, well-supported in the critical 18 to 35 range.
06:00.7
So that's where there's lots of support.
06:01.7
And you'll be surprised, no?
06:02.7
55 to 64, ito yung Marcos maybes, no?
06:04.7
Hindi pa naman ako dito sa age group na ito.
06:05.7
Pero alam mo yun, yeah.
06:28.7
Raghundang laglanggan!
06:29.7
Oh, ka-laglanggan.
06:31.7
I think interesting yung sa educational background ng Marcos supporter, no?
06:39.7
So, you'll see that a big chunk of them are from high-school vocational.
06:47.5
And interesting but not surprising, Iglesia Ni Cristo is a big...
06:50.7
When you look at the religious breakdown, 55% of it.
06:56.7
And then, of course, you look at the ethnic support, it's basically Ilocano-Tagalog.
07:06.3
But there's a very strong Cebuano support pa rin, 22%.
07:11.5
Pero wait lang, Aglipayan, wasn't it found by an Ilocano?
07:17.0
I was just reading about Isabela de los Reyes and then Aglipayan.
07:20.5
But the chunks there are Roman Catholic, Islam.
07:24.6
So, meaning in the terms of the actual percentage that they have as far as the population is concerned.
07:34.5
But you look at the next slide, which is the Duterte family.
07:42.7
So, yeah, you'll notice the support is very different as far as the age groups are concerned.
07:54.6
Yeah, the big supporters are Islam, can you see?
07:58.7
Sixty-six percent.
08:01.1
So, when you look at the religious support.
08:03.7
Clearly, the Mindanao factor there.
08:05.5
Yeah, the Mindanao factor.
08:08.6
So, Mindanao is also their base of support.
08:16.6
What's the number?
08:17.2
One percent of Ilocano.
08:19.8
Which I wonder, sino tong one percent na may Ilocano toto?
08:24.6
I'm going to research them.
08:27.1
Pagod kayo sa akin.
08:28.8
Uwi ako ng bagay soon.
08:35.1
Anyway, but this is a snapshot.
08:40.3
This is a very helpful professor.
08:43.5
It reinforces the demographics we know about these two political families.
08:49.6
And why they were also very unbeatable together.
08:54.6
So, they, meaning, you know, you can understand their base of support.
08:58.9
If they're united, they can really, there will be a lot of continuity as far as government
09:04.1
and politics is concerned, no?
09:06.4
But then, they're bifurcated, not just around personalities and personal interests, but
09:13.2
also along policy lines.
09:14.5
We also know that, di ba?
09:16.8
And it's become the great divide between the families, no?
09:21.0
One is very supportive of China.
09:23.4
The other one is...
09:24.6
So, not so, not as supportive, no?
09:29.6
Is that yours or mine?
09:31.3
No, I think that probably is yours, bro.
09:36.4
This is very important because, honestly, for me, the big thing before we talk about
09:40.3
the third part, independence, is, and the reason why I find it very interesting, aside
09:44.6
from the fact na meron mga sub-demographics, this reminds us of the...
09:51.3
Kasi kung titignan mo dito, almost kalahatan ng mga bata.
09:54.6
Sa mga voters, either undecided, independent, or medyo traditional opposition, right?
10:00.1
Kasi pag sinama mo yung dalawa, 31 plus 20, that's just 51%.
10:04.3
So, roughly half of the voters are up for grabs, right?
10:08.4
In a sense, for an...
10:09.5
Yeah, in a sense, yeah.
10:10.4
...to go to Dirt and Marcos.
10:13.0
This is actually very important if you look at it that way.
10:15.6
Assuming someone consolidates them into a third force.
10:19.9
So, if you're starting a campaign for the midterms, this is important to...
10:25.8
But this is not surprising.
10:27.4
They're not very strong.
10:28.8
The administration is not very strong in Mindanao.
10:33.6
So, but the thing is, they can consolidate.
10:35.7
When you look at the independents, a lot of them are still in balance.
10:42.6
That's up for grabs, talaga.
10:45.6
So, this is something that the administration, and even the opposition, whoever, eventually becomes, no?
10:54.2
Takes control of it.
10:55.7
However, it evolves, no?
10:58.3
We'll have to work on.
10:59.7
There's a lot for grabs.
11:01.7
If you put that plus those who did not respond, that's around 45% rigid.
11:07.0
So, up for grabs.
11:09.3
No, I find this very, very helpful.
11:11.6
Thank you so much.
11:13.7
I'll just call you Ranjit na lang kasi, ano?
11:16.0
We want to have you more regular.
11:17.5
At least on a first-name basis na lang.
11:19.5
Professor, right?
11:22.2
This is very, very helpful.
11:24.2
I found nothing shocking in terms of numbers,
11:28.3
Bakit may 1% pang mga ilo pa?
11:30.8
Mga hudas ka yun.
11:32.0
I'm just kidding.
11:33.9
No, kasi I was just in Baguio, di ba?
11:35.6
Last week before I flew into US.
11:37.4
And ang dami mga bumpers.
11:39.3
Where are you now?
11:40.6
Where are you now?
11:41.4
I'm in Berkeley now.
11:45.5
Kaya may time zone natin.
11:47.0
It's nighttime or late?
11:48.5
It's 9pm right now.
11:50.5
Okay, that's nice.
11:51.4
Thank you so much for agreeing to morning.
11:54.2
And because later,
11:55.4
we're gonna have Senator Trillianes back again
11:57.7
also on our show.
11:59.3
so that's gonna be like 5am my time.
12:02.1
So, medyo you're gonna see more sabog version of me.
12:05.8
5am is not my time talaga.
12:08.4
thank you so much for this.
12:11.3
can we look at the big picture now?
12:13.0
And also dito sa independence.
12:14.6
What is your read dito sa independence?
12:16.1
Because I also find this very interesting.
12:19.2
there are Filipinos who are still,
12:25.0
they may have actually
12:29.1
the question is not crafted,
12:32.8
it still needs a lot of improvement as far as
12:35.9
Medyo generic pa siya.
12:40.2
improve this question over time.
12:45.2
this was not developed by Octave,
12:47.6
so the client-based.
12:48.8
The client suggested this question.
12:51.6
And we just ran it.
12:55.9
Operationalize lang kayo.
12:58.1
But it's slight improvements
12:59.8
to improve the validity of the question.
13:03.0
we can break this down ideologically.
13:06.0
We try to find out.
13:07.1
A lot of people are out there
13:08.7
who don't see the administration
13:10.9
groups that they want to support.
13:15.7
And that's also good, right?
13:18.4
is not bifurcated by just two families.
13:21.2
Although a big chunk of it is.
13:27.2
the pro-Marcos or pro-Duterte.
13:29.4
But a big chunk is still open
13:31.3
is still looking for that group
13:34.8
they want to support.
13:35.7
Or they have support, no?
13:38.2
But we also included the opposition kasi.
13:40.3
That's 4% lang, no?
13:43.9
the Liberal Party
13:45.3
or the opposition
13:47.0
as the group they want to support.
13:50.3
So, that's also good.
13:54.2
but one could also argue
13:55.6
there's a divide, di ba?
13:57.1
between those who have already affiliations, no?
13:59.6
And those who do not.
14:02.6
What's relevant for me here
14:04.1
is that it reaffirms
14:05.2
all these old images
14:06.2
of Philippine government and politics, di ba?
14:10.0
it's very personal,
14:13.2
are along ethnic cleavages, no?
14:16.2
And that, you know,
14:18.2
the weakness of the party system,
14:19.7
the lack of it, no?
14:21.0
The non-existence of it
14:22.3
has not disciplined our politics,
14:24.2
has made our politics
14:26.4
around all this parochialism
14:30.5
but if we had stronger parties,
14:36.4
be divided along ideas,
14:39.6
and programs, no?
14:40.9
Instead of just families, no?
14:42.4
But I think a lot of the data
14:44.1
reaffirms all our own,
14:47.2
consistent images, no?
14:49.0
Of how changeless
14:50.2
Philippine politics seems to be.
14:52.5
there's hope in the 29
14:54.2
in the 40 percent
14:57.2
That's a huge number.
14:59.0
I think I'm more optimistic
15:00.7
cautiously more optimistic
15:04.1
that we discussed today
15:06.4
of the picture, right?
15:07.6
One side is the continuity part,
15:09.7
particularly continuity
15:10.8
in terms of appeal
15:17.0
both of us argued that
15:18.6
forget about differences
15:19.5
between Dutertes and Tulfos,
15:20.7
the Tulfo brothers themselves
15:21.7
are extremely different
15:22.6
from each other, right?
15:23.4
I have interviewed
15:25.6
two very different individuals.
15:27.6
I think Rafi is much more
15:29.0
independent so far.
15:30.7
Let's see with Erwin
15:33.5
the administration
15:34.0
and then Ben Tulfo
15:35.4
different conversation, right?
15:37.7
But at the same time,
15:38.6
I think the second survey
15:39.5
was very interesting
15:40.2
because almost half
15:45.3
anti-system or something
15:47.3
that there's hope
15:50.8
Assuming certain things
15:54.3
one could construe
15:55.4
continuity and change
15:58.2
being shown by the survey.
15:59.9
Although the data
16:01.3
to make solid arguments.
16:03.5
there's always that
16:04.2
us taking ourselves
16:05.6
out of the survey
16:06.9
the general trajectory
16:08.1
of Philippine politics.
16:09.2
There is a trajectory
16:13.6
sense of continuity
16:14.8
as far as government
16:15.7
and politics are concerned.
16:16.7
But there is always
16:19.1
that element of change
16:25.3
who align themselves
16:32.4
democracy and development
16:33.8
can actually happen
16:34.9
if we all work together.
16:38.2
that movement there.
16:42.0
hopefully that movement
16:43.2
will have more voice
16:48.4
And we hope to see
16:51.7
more survey numbers
16:54.1
pointing out to this
16:55.1
progressive movement
16:56.6
taking hold of our politics.
16:59.6
thank you very much,
17:02.4
I'm a little sleepy
17:06.2
Go to sleep first.
17:08.2
Sleep in preparation
17:09.9
for the Senator Trillanes interview.
17:13.2
There's so much going on.
17:14.3
I still have to write
17:16.8
in West Philippine CNL.
17:18.2
So, thank you so much,
17:19.9
This was very helpful data.
17:22.1
I'm going to refer this
17:24.1
in future lectures,
17:26.9
We hope to have you again
17:28.1
in the near future
17:30.9
as more interesting surveys,
17:32.2
as more tightened,
17:36.2
I can see you're hedging
17:38.8
in a social scientist way.
17:42.3
into conclusions.
17:44.7
at least we have something
17:46.5
before we can make
17:48.9
or more than hopefully
17:50.4
political analysis.
17:51.6
Thank you very much,
17:52.3
Professor Rangin.
17:52.9
Rai, from OCTA Research
17:55.1
University of the Philippines
17:56.2
Total Science Department
17:59.0
Thank you, Richard.
18:00.1
And thank you to all those
18:01.4
who watched today's podcast.
18:04.5
And have a good day,
18:12.1
Nagustuhan nyo ba
18:12.9
ang ganitong pagtalakay?
18:15.6
Informador FB page
18:17.8
sa Informador YouTube channel.
18:20.8
ay nilikha ng mga staff
18:22.1
ni Atty. Ricky Tumulay,
18:25.6
upang lalong lumawak
18:27.3
ng pagpapalaganap
