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DAGSAAN NG MGA “CHINESE STUDENTS”: DAPAT BANG IMBESTIGAHAN!??
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Richard Heydarian VLOGS
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00:00.0
of Cagayan Valley
00:01.0
where they produce
00:02.2
top-notch lawyers,
00:03.7
criminologists,
00:04.6
and marine engineers.
00:06.3
Magagaling itong mga eskwela nito.
00:07.8
And then,
00:08.4
aside from that,
00:09.3
there are many more colleges.
00:11.2
So, it's a university town.
00:13.3
So, I came from a university.
00:14.8
Parang Baguio, di ba?
00:15.4
Parang Baguio.
00:16.0
Parang Baguio, basically.
00:16.8
Ang dami na yung mga
00:17.2
foreign students and all
00:18.7
throughout the years, yeah.
00:19.7
Right.
00:20.2
So, in other words,
00:21.7
and also,
00:22.3
the local leaders
00:24.3
are Filipino-Chinese.
00:26.5
No?
00:26.9
They intermarried with the locals.
00:28.8
They know all the languages.
00:29.6
They are part of...
00:31.3
They are Filipinos, basically.
00:32.5
They are part of the...
00:34.5
So, parang vegan ito, di ba?
00:36.2
Kasi, like,
00:36.9
may lola from vegan.
00:37.9
May Chinese blood mga yan.
00:38.9
Obvious sa itura niya.
00:39.8
Yes, yes.
00:40.6
So, if vegan is on this side,
00:42.0
ito yung the other side
00:42.9
na parang antropot.
00:44.0
Parang mini...
00:44.6
Kaya nangyari yun,
00:45.7
maraming Chinese sa vegan.
00:47.4
Originally, di ba,
00:48.3
they came from Lalo.
00:49.2
That's Nueva Segovia.
00:50.9
So, when the Spine Yards
00:52.4
decided to
00:54.1
relocate
00:56.3
the capital
00:57.7
from Nueva Segovia,
00:59.6
in Lalo,
01:00.9
to vegan.
01:03.0
So, dun nagpuntahan yung mga Chinese.
01:05.0
Yung iba,
01:05.5
nagpuntahan sa Tugigarao.
01:07.8
So, ganun yung ano.
01:09.3
And then,
01:09.6
the next wave of migration
01:10.8
because, of course,
01:11.6
we know what happened
01:12.4
during the...
01:13.8
during the war
01:15.5
in Taiwan
01:16.6
because of the civil war
01:17.7
between the nationalists
01:18.9
and the communists.
01:20.1
Tumakas yung iba dito.
01:21.2
Tumakas.
01:21.8
Nagpuntahan sa Tugigarao.
01:24.0
So, kagaya, basically,
01:24.9
kaya maraming kami
01:25.6
Filipino-Chinese doon.
01:27.2
Okay.
01:27.6
Tapos, naging negosyante sila.
01:29.1
Naging,
01:29.6
politiko sila doon.
01:30.8
So, that's the context.
01:32.1
So, and then, of course, no,
01:33.4
dahil maraming kami
01:34.1
reputable universities doon,
01:36.5
we have other...
01:38.1
I remember
01:38.9
in my elementary high school
01:40.9
kasi doon lang ako nag-aral
01:41.8
after I went to UP
01:43.1
in college, no,
01:44.2
maraming na rin mga
01:45.0
foreign students doon, no.
01:46.5
Usually, mga...
01:47.8
Karamihan na nagpupuntahan doon
01:49.0
mga...
01:50.0
mga Amerikano doon.
01:52.5
Pero,
01:52.9
and European.
01:54.7
Kunti-kunti lang yan.
01:55.6
Pero, nung
01:56.3
nag-aral na ako sa UP,
01:57.8
tapos, dito na ako...
01:59.6
And then,
02:00.3
I saw na medyo nag-boom
02:01.7
mga Indians
02:02.4
na because they study medicine
02:03.9
in...
02:05.1
in...
02:05.2
in...
02:05.8
kagayaan, kasi mas...
02:06.8
So, parang Baguio talaga.
02:08.0
Parang Baguio talaga.
02:09.1
And then, Koreans...
02:09.3
How large is the population?
02:10.8
How large is the population there?
02:12.5
In Tugigoro,
02:13.1
I do not
02:13.8
exactly know now,
02:15.4
pero parang
02:16.2
nasa ano lang kami, eh.
02:18.2
Nasa...
02:18.5
Feeling ko, nasa...
02:20.1
60,000?
02:21.0
100,000?
02:21.9
More?
02:22.9
Siguro nasa 100,000.
02:24.0
100,000.
02:25.3
Melting pot kasi
02:26.5
in Tugigoro, eh.
02:27.4
Melting pot.
02:28.2
The reason I'm asking
02:29.1
number,
02:29.6
is because
02:30.2
as we discussed,
02:31.3
the number of Chinese students,
02:32.3
that could give you a scale, right?
02:33.6
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
02:34.4
If it's a town of 100 people
02:35.5
and then there's 2,000
02:36.5
Chinese students,
02:37.5
then, you know,
02:38.5
you're gonna say,
02:39.0
but if it's a town of 100,000 people
02:40.6
and there's like
02:41.3
100 or 200,
02:43.4
you get what I'm saying?
02:44.0
I'm just trying to put things...
02:44.9
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
02:45.5
So, the scale is important.
02:47.7
Oh, ratio is very important
02:48.9
before we go into
02:49.7
conspiracy theories.
02:51.1
Yes.
02:51.4
So, now,
02:52.0
what's this Chinese story?
02:53.6
Chinese student story?
02:54.4
So, last year,
02:56.0
I just saw
02:59.6
over the news, no?
03:00.7
Si Bureau of Immigration
03:02.8
naglabas ng figures.
03:04.6
There are 1,500
03:05.9
Chinese students,
03:07.2
they said.
03:09.2
One-five students
03:10.7
who came to,
03:12.4
who went to,
03:13.0
to, ano,
03:13.5
to Cagayan last year.
03:14.8
That was the figure
03:15.7
that they brought out.
03:17.6
Some of them were students,
03:18.9
sabi nila.
03:19.7
One politician
03:20.7
said that
03:23.0
in one university,
03:25.5
in St. Paul University,
03:27.4
that's a reputable university,
03:29.1
sabi nila,
03:29.4
may 4,000 plus.
03:30.6
Pero sabi nung mayor,
03:32.1
it's all, no,
03:32.6
that's not 4,000
03:33.8
kasi may local politics,
03:35.0
away-away din sila dun, no?
03:36.5
Hindi 4,000 plus yun.
03:38.3
400 lang.
03:40.1
So, yung sinasabing figures
03:41.4
is more.
03:41.5
Ten times more yung figure
03:43.0
na binigyan.
03:43.1
Parang nadagdagan.
03:44.3
Laki nun.
03:45.3
Pero, itong caveat,
03:47.6
syempre, I'm from,
03:48.5
I'm a local,
03:49.2
may kwento-kwento na,
03:50.2
oh, you have,
03:51.3
we see it,
03:52.2
there are Chinese students here
03:53.2
who are paying like this,
03:54.2
blah, blah, blah, blah.
03:55.1
And then, syempre,
03:56.0
defense analyst din ako.
03:57.2
I heard from,
03:58.5
from intelligence report,
04:01.2
oh, taga,
04:01.8
parang nag-sigive lahat
04:02.9
yung mga kwento sa baba
04:04.0
at yung mga report na ito.
04:06.8
So, that's how it came up, no?
04:09.6
Ayoko sabihin yung mga names
04:10.8
where I got it,
04:11.6
pero ganoon na lang
04:12.7
natin ipunto.
04:14.8
Let's not discuss
04:15.8
the figures on the money, no?
04:19.7
Pag-usapan na lang yun natin
04:20.9
yung influx, no?
04:22.1
Yeah, yeah.
04:23.4
We saw, we saw,
04:24.5
actually, people are quiet.
04:26.0
Some people,
04:26.4
some locals are quiet about it.
04:28.5
But,
04:29.4
the AFP is worried about it.
04:33.4
I have to,
04:33.8
I have to admit,
04:35.1
because of the influx of
04:36.6
these Chinese students,
04:38.4
I got an information lately also
04:40.3
that,
04:41.0
we have,
04:42.3
it's good that you brought that up already.
04:44.8
We have also the same
04:45.9
feeling and problem in Subic.
04:48.8
Andaming nagsasabi ng ganyan.
04:50.4
So, let's not,
04:52.5
it just so happened,
04:53.3
the epicenter right now
04:54.2
is in Cagayan,
04:54.8
but it's happening everywhere
04:56.1
in key strategic locations.
04:58.5
How come that we have
05:00.2
influx of Chinese students
05:01.9
in these strategic locations?
05:03.9
Like, say, for example,
05:04.7
Cagayan,
05:05.5
because it has two EDCA sites
05:06.7
and also in Subic
05:07.5
because it faces
05:08.7
West Philippine Sea.
05:13.0
So, ganun ngayon yung situation.
05:16.1
And,
05:16.5
sabi ng mga senator,
05:19.4
there should be a complaint.
05:21.9
And,
05:22.7
syempre, ako nanggali sa akin,
05:24.3
nanggaling yung source,
05:25.6
Chester Gabalsa should file a complaint.
05:27.3
Okay.
05:28.5
E, nag-iisip ko ngayon.
05:31.4
Teka, file a complaint.
05:33.4
What about my family?
05:36.2
So, that's the dilemma
05:37.1
that I'm currently in right now.
05:40.8
I may be the source,
05:43.2
but wait, take a minute.
05:44.8
Kawawa naman yung pamilya ko.
05:46.4
Because they are being harassed.
05:48.4
Two of my brothers
05:49.2
are working for the local government.
05:51.3
So, hey, teka.
05:53.2
Teka.
05:54.7
Pag-isipan natin muna ito.
05:56.3
So,
05:56.7
before government,
05:58.5
coming into that.
05:59.5
Because, of course,
06:00.1
I'll be having a meeting
06:02.9
with Ched by next week.
06:06.0
We'll see what happens there
06:07.4
in the negotiation
06:08.1
of how things will work
06:09.7
if we pursue for the filing
06:12.3
of the case
06:14.7
or if,
06:16.8
I don't know.
06:17.6
I don't know kung ano pa pag-
06:18.6
What do you mean, complain?
06:20.0
I mean, like, investigate
06:21.1
what's going on?
06:22.0
Because, this is the process.
06:23.8
For the Senate
06:24.9
or the House
06:26.2
to investigate the situation,
06:28.2
there must be a complaint.
06:28.4
There must be a complainant.
06:31.1
Tapos, in aid of legislation
06:32.6
or something like that?
06:33.7
Something like that.
06:34.6
No, there must be a complainant
06:36.2
to
06:37.2
to proceed
06:40.2
with the due process.
06:42.0
Kumbaga.
06:42.9
So,
06:43.8
I don't know what will happen
06:45.1
if
06:45.6
if I'm gonna talk to them later on.
06:50.7
Okay, that's why hopefully
06:51.7
we'll have you next week
06:52.6
or something in Manila
06:53.6
to have an update on this
06:55.0
and please take care of yourself.
06:56.2
I didn't know it was that crazy.
06:57.7
I mean,
06:57.9
obviously, there's always risk
06:59.3
in what we do.
07:00.1
I understand it.
07:01.5
It's just that
07:02.3
I didn't know it got so hot right now.
07:04.8
I mean-
07:05.2
It is.
07:05.7
It is.
07:06.2
And, of course,
07:06.8
it's really baffling, confusing.
07:09.1
Yeah.
07:09.6
It's so hot.
07:12.7
Yeah.
07:13.9
And, you think about it twice
07:16.1
because
07:16.6
okay lang ko ako eh.
07:18.0
I mean,
07:18.5
we've been doing this for-
07:19.5
I've been doing this for 14 years already,
07:21.3
being a public commentator.
07:23.9
But, first time in my life
07:25.8
where
07:26.8
I don't know
07:27.6
I don't know.
07:27.9
But, family members
07:29.1
are involved now.
07:30.5
Yeah, yeah.
07:31.0
Of course.
07:31.9
Yes, yes.
07:32.6
I completely understand.
07:33.4
I mean,
07:34.5
for me kasi,
07:35.2
like everything you're saying
07:36.3
is what
07:36.7
was our concern with Pogos
07:38.5
in Manila.
07:39.2
And, it's not like
07:40.6
walang investigation
07:41.3
about Pogos and all.
07:42.2
I don't know what the hell
07:42.9
did they do really about it.
07:45.0
Biglang naging quiet yung issue.
07:46.2
Biglang bumabalik yung issue.
07:47.4
So,
07:48.0
why not
07:48.3
yung mga na sa Manila
07:49.7
i-connect din nila yung Pogo issue
07:51.0
dito sa influx
07:51.8
the other issue.
07:52.6
And, at the same time,
07:53.8
kasi we need a hearing
07:55.0
that
07:56.0
helps us
07:57.8
to
07:57.9
I don't want to avoid
07:58.5
racism
07:59.3
and anti-China
08:00.5
you know,
08:01.1
prejudice.
08:01.7
Kasi ako,
08:02.2
very sensitive ako sa mga ganun.
08:03.4
I mean,
08:03.6
we Filipinos are
08:04.3
we should be open society.
08:07.2
We have to be open.
08:08.5
Lalo na,
08:09.2
biracial naman
08:10.4
ng Kao.
08:11.2
Tapos,
08:11.9
these Filipino-Chinese
08:14.4
are also biracial.
08:15.6
They're our brothers.
08:16.4
Yeah,
08:16.5
Rizal was Chinoy too
08:17.7
in a way.
08:18.2
So,
08:18.6
I want to be careful about
08:19.8
at the same time,
08:20.4
ayoko mukhang
08:20.9
as Cynthia Villar,
08:23.1
our great senator
08:23.8
very eloquently put it,
08:26.1
boba ba tayo?
08:26.9
I mean,
08:27.4
at the same time,
08:27.9
we have to be,
08:29.0
diba?
08:29.7
Baba ba tayo?
08:30.9
Kailangan din natin na,
08:31.9
no?
08:32.3
To see what's going on here
08:33.9
kasi,
08:35.0
you're saying 1,000,
08:36.3
I'm sorry,
08:36.5
how many students?
08:37.6
400.
08:37.9
400 daw ang latest na lumalabas,
08:39.9
no?
08:40.2
Okay,
08:40.4
so that's not much
08:41.3
but was it like 0
08:42.5
and then suddenly 400
08:43.8
or was it like 50
08:44.6
then 400?
08:45.1
The 400 is,
08:47.1
ang kwento is
08:47.9
in one university only.
08:50.1
Aha.
08:50.7
Kaya medyo,
08:51.5
medyo.
08:52.0
But what's the trajectory?
08:52.9
Did it go like from 0 last year
08:54.4
to suddenly 1,000
08:55.3
or did it go from
08:56.3
few hundred to 1,000?
08:57.6
Like,
08:57.9
kasi doon mo rin makita
08:59.6
kung something's going on.
09:00.2
Bakit yung surge,
09:01.5
no?
09:01.7
Bakit yung surge?
09:02.7
Exactly, yeah.
09:03.6
Yeah,
09:04.1
some were saying
09:05.0
because they have
09:06.0
a joint memorandum,
09:09.5
pwede naman yun,
09:10.2
walang problema.
09:11.1
Exactly,
09:11.5
legitimate naman yan,
09:12.5
Baka part dito ng
09:13.3
sister city,
09:14.6
pwede naman yun,
09:15.5
diba?
09:16.0
Pero,
09:17.3
what is dubious here
09:19.1
is the,
09:19.9
of course,
09:20.4
we are from,
09:22.1
we are analysts,
09:23.6
I'm also from the
09:24.9
defense and security sector,
09:26.4
no?
09:26.5
When we see
09:28.3
things like that,
09:29.9
those are red flags for us.
09:33.0
Kaya,
09:33.5
nagiging,
09:34.4
nagiging,
09:35.7
how would I say it?
09:37.5
Nagiging taranta kami.
09:39.4
Natataranta kami.
09:40.4
It just so happened that
09:41.6
I'm from this sector,
09:44.4
tapos taga doon pa ako,
09:46.4
and then when I spill
09:47.6
the beans,
09:49.1
syempre galit ako,
09:50.2
I'm the,
09:51.0
the most hated person
09:53.3
right now in my province
09:54.8
because of
09:55.6
I'm the most hated person
09:56.5
quote-unquote,
09:57.5
I'm the whistleblower.
09:59.7
Syempre,
10:00.8
where do I put myself now?
10:04.0
Parang ganun,
10:05.0
no?
10:05.3
Because part of the
10:06.6
defense and security sector,
10:08.7
but at the same time,
10:09.8
I'm also a native
10:10.7
of that land,
10:12.3
no?
10:12.6
So,
10:13.1
and revealing all this
10:15.1
sitwi,
10:15.8
and pangatlo,
10:16.9
there's an ongoing
10:17.6
geopolitical tension.
10:19.0
You see the complexity
10:19.8
of everything here,
10:21.5
no?
10:22.6
It's really mind-boggling,
10:24.6
it's really taranta
10:25.9
for,
10:26.5
for everyone,
10:28.0
and you become anxious also
10:30.0
because of your safety,
10:31.5
of your security,
10:32.2
basically,
10:33.0
no?
10:33.3
Okay lang yung national security,
10:34.6
kaya natin i-explain
10:36.2
lahat yan eh.
10:37.3
Yeah.
10:37.9
When members of your family
10:39.8
are in danger also,
10:41.7
you become so
10:43.1
praning na,
10:44.1
no?
10:44.7
Yeah.
10:45.0
Why?
10:45.5
How?
10:46.1
Parang ganun.
10:47.4
But,
10:48.1
my problem is,
10:49.8
why should it be you
10:50.9
alone to take up the kodjos?
10:52.5
I mean,
10:52.7
aren't there other people
10:53.6
from other areas of the country,
10:55.1
from Manila,
10:55.8
who can be involved?
10:56.5
I mean,
10:56.6
you have a lot of linkages
10:57.9
in the academic industry.
10:58.5
Agree, agree, agree.
10:59.6
Yeah, baka why should it be
11:00.6
only on you?
11:01.5
I mean,
11:01.6
this is crazy.
11:02.3
Even if you're the only
11:03.9
leading analyst from that area.
11:06.4
Yeah,
11:06.9
I agree with you,
11:08.1
no?
11:08.8
There must be
11:09.7
other alternative
11:10.6
on how to
11:12.3
open up the Pandora's box,
11:14.5
no?
11:15.2
Kasi,
11:16.0
nakikita mo naman
11:17.4
yung complexity ko.
11:18.3
And I was
11:18.8
unbiased
11:19.8
in my analysis,
11:20.8
given that I'm from that,
11:21.8
I'm from that province,
11:24.4
no?
11:24.5
It just so happened that
11:25.7
you have,
11:26.5
you have also
11:27.8
to deal with
11:28.3
local politics.
11:30.3
And secondly,
11:32.1
you have to deal with
11:33.2
the geopolitical situation,
11:35.5
no?
11:36.0
And thirdly,
11:37.5
you have also
11:38.2
to deal with
11:38.7
your credibility.
11:39.8
Kasi syempre,
11:40.5
people will attack you,
11:41.9
no?
11:42.3
Kasi left and right,
11:43.7
they are watching you,
11:45.1
marami silang sasabihin,
11:47.1
but
11:47.3
our role as professor
11:50.4
is to profess
11:51.8
our research.
11:52.7
Kaya nga professor tayo,
11:53.7
di ba?
11:54.0
We profess
11:54.7
our truth.
11:55.7
What?
11:56.5
It's objectively
11:57.2
written based from
11:58.8
our research.
12:00.2
At yun na lumalabas
12:01.1
sa research ko.
12:02.4
No?
12:02.7
So,
12:03.8
that is something
12:05.7
that they should have to understand.
12:06.8
So, talk about,
12:07.2
okay,
12:08.2
can we clarify the nature?
12:09.5
You're being threatened
12:10.3
for exposing
12:11.6
potential wrongdoing
12:12.9
or you're being
12:13.7
threatened,
12:14.4
I mean,
12:14.9
what is,
12:15.5
what is the basis
12:16.7
for threatening you?
12:18.2
Are they saying
12:18.9
you're exposing something
12:19.9
wrong or is it
12:21.9
because they just don't want you
12:22.8
to maritas or what?
12:23.6
I mean,
12:23.8
are you being accused
12:24.8
of being provocateur
12:25.7
or something?
12:26.5
Or are some people
12:27.4
interested to be involved here?
12:28.5
Some people are saying
12:29.0
that, of course,
12:30.2
when the media
12:31.7
pick it up
12:32.4
and then it became
12:33.1
a viral discussion,
12:35.3
oh,
12:36.1
who's your source?
12:37.7
San galing yan?
12:38.6
Blah, blah, blah, blah.
12:39.7
Okay.
12:40.5
And, of course,
12:41.3
one is, of course,
12:45.5
my family is also,
12:47.6
relatives are also
12:48.6
in Kagayan,
12:49.6
and you know
12:50.7
the dynamics
12:51.2
of local politics
12:52.1
also there.
12:53.2
Some are using
12:53.9
the agenda
12:55.5
to,
12:55.9
the agenda,
12:56.5
the issue
12:57.6
for their
12:58.0
political agenda
12:59.2
because, of course,
12:59.8
next is also
13:00.5
the midterm elections.
13:02.5
Others,
13:03.2
because some of my brothers
13:04.4
are employed
13:04.9
in the city government.
13:07.8
I see, I see.
13:08.9
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
13:09.2
I see the pressure
13:09.9
also.
13:10.8
This person,
13:12.2
your brother,
13:12.7
is saying something
13:13.5
that might harm
13:15.4
the city
13:16.7
and some of the
13:17.8
reputable universities here.
13:19.4
So, you see
13:19.8
the dilemma
13:20.3
that we are in right now.
13:21.3
I see, I see.
13:21.9
Of course, of course.
13:22.8
Yeah, this is,
13:24.0
you know,
13:24.2
so what is the ideal
13:25.3
situation here?
13:26.5
A legit,
13:27.4
proper Senate hearing
13:28.7
that is not,
13:29.4
you know,
13:30.0
that's not carnival-esque
13:31.2
and doesn't go crazy
13:32.1
and off the script, right?
13:32.9
I mean, this is what we want.
13:33.6
Just a legitimate,
13:34.5
proper look into this
13:36.1
just to make sure
13:36.7
national security
13:37.4
is taken care of.
13:39.0
Is this the ideal situation
13:40.2
you're looking at?
13:41.2
Yeah, for me,
13:42.1
my suggestion
13:43.0
is that
13:43.5
they have to invite
13:45.0
representatives
13:46.9
from
13:47.7
the Bureau of Immigration,
13:50.2
from
13:50.7
CHED,
13:51.9
who, of course,
13:52.5
because these are
13:53.2
higher educational
13:54.0
institutions,
13:56.5
also document,
13:57.5
representatives
13:58.1
from DFA
13:59.4
because, of course,
14:00.2
these are foreign nationals.
14:01.9
At the same time,
14:02.7
local government
14:03.8
representative also.
14:06.3
And
14:06.6
they have to
14:08.9
to gather more
14:11.9
stories
14:13.9
from the locals also.
14:15.7
No?
14:16.0
Para kang
14:16.5
nagtitisis din na,
14:18.0
oh, ito, ito, ito,
14:18.5
ito, ito, ito,
14:19.0
ganyan, ganyan, no?
14:20.1
So, we can verify it
14:21.4
and
14:21.7
kasi kung isa lang
14:23.4
yung sa magsasabi,
14:24.2
assuming, of course,
14:25.0
I, I, I, I,
14:25.8
what if,
14:26.5
if I have decided
14:27.2
to speak up
14:27.8
and continue
14:28.7
with this saga,
14:29.8
no?
14:31.4
Definitely,
14:32.2
maraming attack.
14:34.3
You mean going
14:34.7
to Senate hearings?
14:36.1
Yeah, yeah,
14:36.6
definitely.
14:38.8
Will they give me
14:39.8
protection,
14:41.0
witness protection
14:41.8
program?
14:42.6
What about my family?
14:44.5
Those,
14:44.9
my brothers
14:45.5
who are employed
14:46.2
in the,
14:46.7
no?
14:47.1
Siyempre, may mga ano rin yan,
14:48.3
no?
14:48.4
May mga economic
14:49.3
needs din sila yan,
14:50.5
no?
14:50.6
They are employed,
14:51.9
no?
14:52.0
They have to work
14:52.8
and so on, no?
14:53.5
So, look at those
14:54.4
scenario, no?
14:55.1
It shouldn't be on you.
14:56.2
I think you should be
14:57.2
just one of the sources
14:58.2
but I think there are
14:58.9
other people
14:59.4
who also step up.
15:00.7
What are people
15:01.5
from military background,
15:03.3
whether people are
15:03.9
regional experts,
15:04.9
et cetera, et cetera.
15:06.0
Yun na,
15:06.3
ako sa Pilipinas,
15:07.0
sa parating,
15:07.9
they put everything
15:08.5
on one person,
15:09.4
you know?
15:10.4
We're not here
15:11.1
to be martyrs, right?
15:12.0
We're here to help
15:12.6
the country
15:13.1
but everyone has
15:14.3
to pitch in one way
15:15.2
or another.
15:15.5
So, thank you very much,
15:17.2
Dr. Cabalza,
15:18.7
for actually also
15:19.7
reminding people,
15:20.9
especially the media,
15:21.7
to be careful also
15:22.4
when they,
15:22.8
you know,
15:23.9
to my fellow
15:24.7
colleagues in media,
15:25.6
ingat din,
15:26.2
yeah, I mean,
15:26.6
I know you want to make
15:27.4
good news and all of that
15:28.5
but make sure we shouldn't
15:29.4
endanger our
15:30.4
sources and friends
15:31.9
although, of course,
15:33.5
this is
15:33.9
unintentionally.
15:36.0
We just have to be
15:36.6
careful about that.
15:37.8
So, I'm sorry to hear that
15:39.1
but I'm optimistic
15:40.3
that hopefully
15:40.8
we will navigate
15:41.6
through this
15:42.1
because itong issue
15:43.4
ng kagayaan
15:44.1
has been there
15:44.5
in news cycle
15:45.2
for quite some time.
15:46.1
So, it's not like
15:46.7
ikaw lang nagsalita,
15:47.8
biglang may focus sa kanila.
15:49.7
This has been going
15:50.4
for some time
15:50.9
and my sense is
15:51.6
what's happening right now
15:52.9
is just a tip of the iceberg
15:54.0
in the sense that
15:54.6
there's growing scrutiny
15:55.7
of China's presence
15:57.1
in a way that there was
15:58.5
none during Duterte
15:59.6
at the time.
16:00.1
So, medyo naka-catch up tayo.
16:01.3
Siguro naka-overswing
16:02.3
na tayo ng konti.
16:03.3
Let me ask you
16:03.8
last point
16:04.4
dito sa interview natin.
16:05.9
I hope we'll have
16:06.4
another interview soon.
16:07.4
Yeah, of course.
16:08.8
And please take care
16:09.9
of yourself.
16:10.4
Kamsa.
16:11.3
Are you concerned
16:14.4
that the Philippines
16:15.1
could also be
16:15.6
kind of a front line
16:16.6
of superpower rivalry?
16:18.1
Kind of like a
16:18.7
Berlin of the 21st century
16:20.5
or Austria?
16:21.1
Because obviously
16:22.3
American influence
16:23.2
is a given in the Philippines
16:24.4
and we can have
16:25.1
a long conversation
16:25.6
about how dependent
16:26.8
the Philippines is
16:27.6
to be a colony of US.
16:28.7
We can have a conversation
16:29.8
like that.
16:30.2
But I think it's a fact
16:31.9
that US is not
16:33.5
the only superpower
16:34.3
that has been present here.
16:36.3
You have no less
16:36.8
than the former president
16:37.7
of this country
16:38.4
essentially lawyering for China.
16:40.3
You have the vice president
16:41.2
of this country
16:41.9
never saying anything
16:43.3
critical of China
16:44.2
no matter what's happening
16:45.1
in the West Philippine Sea.
16:46.0
You have
16:46.6
one of their siblings
16:48.4
or whatever
16:48.8
coming out and saying
16:49.4
don't demonize China.
16:50.6
And that's just from the South.
16:51.8
And now we're seeing
16:52.6
a governor from the North
16:53.6
also coming.
16:54.5
Are you
16:54.9
are you seeing
16:56.0
you know
16:56.9
the Duterte-Marcos spot
16:58.6
evolving into something
17:00.5
or rather reflecting
17:02.1
something much bigger
17:03.5
in terms of
17:04.1
superpower rivalry?
17:06.1
Some were saying
17:06.9
that there are
17:08.0
they represent
17:09.1
the two superpowers
17:10.2
right now
17:10.7
given that of course
17:11.5
they are leaning towards
17:12.3
these two different countries
17:13.6
in their
17:14.6
national security
17:16.3
agenda basically.
17:17.8
But
17:18.0
we have to
17:19.6
to note also
17:20.4
that even before
17:21.6
we have foreseen
17:23.0
that it could be possible
17:24.4
that our
17:24.8
country
17:25.4
especially those
17:26.2
in the northern part
17:26.9
of the Philippines
17:27.7
can become the battleground
17:29.4
for any eventuality.
17:31.4
That's the reason
17:32.4
why we are
17:32.9
we are doing simulation.
17:34.7
That's the reason
17:35.4
why you have
17:36.1
balikatan exercises
17:37.2
to simulate
17:38.5
workers
17:39.0
future scenarios.
17:41.3
And that's the reason
17:41.8
why you have
17:42.3
this strategic foresight.
17:43.8
Okay.
17:44.2
Let's look into
17:45.4
the strategic foresight
17:46.7
first.
17:47.5
What if
17:48.2
war happens?
17:51.1
And definitely
17:52.2
China wins.
17:54.8
And the scenario
17:56.9
is definitely
17:58.5
if China wins
17:59.4
there could be
18:00.5
a possibility
18:01.2
that BBM steps
18:02.3
down
18:03.3
then Sarah becomes
18:04.8
immediately the
18:05.4
next president.
18:07.1
That's one scenario.
18:09.2
And the second
18:10.1
is of course
18:10.9
you will see
18:15.5
are we going to
18:17.0
continue
18:17.5
with our alliance
18:18.6
with the Americans
18:19.2
if that's
18:19.7
the case
18:21.4
because one of the
18:22.6
continuing discussion
18:24.2
is
18:24.5
there must be
18:25.5
war
18:25.9
so that we know
18:27.0
which
18:29.1
superpower
18:30.1
will become
18:32.5
the leader
18:32.9
of this region
18:33.6
because right now
18:34.4
that's the reason
18:34.9
why there's
18:35.4
strategic competition
18:36.4
because they're
18:37.5
trying to
18:37.9
flex their muscles.
18:39.4
And you know
18:39.7
I would remember
18:40.6
I used to invite
18:41.4
Efshin Lose
18:42.2
in my classes
18:43.9
at the National
18:44.6
Defense College.
18:46.1
And in his
18:47.3
teenage years
18:48.4
he used to
18:49.5
interview
18:50.6
the first
18:52.2
Philippine president
18:53.1
C.
18:53.5
Aguinaldo.
18:55.5
And he
18:56.3
ah ito
18:56.7
very classic ito
18:57.7
kaya lagi kong kinikwento
18:59.2
and he asked
18:59.9
Aguinaldo
19:00.5
did you kill
19:01.1
Bonifacio?
19:02.7
So that was
19:03.2
a question.
19:04.5
So sabi daw ni Aguinaldo
19:05.7
ano?
19:06.8
Yes.
19:08.0
Hindi niya sinabi pala
19:09.3
yes.
19:09.6
Ang sagot daw niya
19:10.5
well
19:11.1
in your
19:12.8
republic
19:13.4
you cannot have
19:14.2
two presidents.
19:16.3
No?
19:16.8
So alam niyo
19:17.3
yung six
19:17.9
Razon dita
19:18.9
I mean
19:19.7
this is a matter
19:20.6
of state interest
19:21.9
right?
19:22.6
You have to have
19:23.1
order.
19:23.5
It's the same thing
19:24.2
as what is happening
19:25.0
now because there's
19:25.8
a strategic competition
19:26.7
right now
19:27.3
and you cannot
19:28.2
have two leaders
19:29.2
in one region.
19:30.8
So you have to
19:31.6
choose one.
19:33.0
And they have to
19:33.8
compete
19:34.2
for that position.
19:36.5
So may not say
19:37.1
that
19:37.4
by hook or by crook
19:38.9
these two
19:39.3
superpowers
19:39.9
should have to
19:40.4
determine
19:42.2
which one of them
19:44.4
is the most powerful.
19:45.7
So hindi tayo
19:46.2
pwede mag-wishy-washy.
19:47.6
I mean
19:47.8
we have
19:48.4
to be clear
19:49.6
about where we stand
19:50.4
on things, right?
19:51.2
And assuming
19:51.5
war happens
19:52.8
or that
19:53.3
shooting war
19:53.9
happens
19:54.5
our giant neighbor
19:56.0
will be godless
19:57.0
and merciless
19:57.6
to us.
19:58.8
Because we have
19:59.7
laid down
20:00.3
our cards
20:00.8
right now.
20:02.0
But when you say
20:02.5
war
20:03.0
I mean
20:03.5
is this also
20:04.1
over Taiwan
20:04.8
potentially?
20:05.7
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
20:07.5
Of course
20:08.3
there's a
20:09.2
potential for that.
20:11.1
You know
20:11.3
the first country
20:12.5
that if assuming
20:13.5
there is war
20:14.5
the first country
20:15.2
that China
20:17.1
will attack
20:17.7
will not be
20:18.5
Taiwan
20:19.1
or the Philippines
20:19.8
but it's going
20:20.9
to be Japan.
20:22.6
Japan
20:23.1
because in that
20:24.0
string of pearls
20:25.2
Japan is the strongest
20:26.3
among us.
20:27.4
Should they have
20:28.2
to take out
20:28.7
the ace?
20:30.1
Yeah.
20:30.4
Yes, they have to
20:31.2
take out the ace first
20:32.4
and the strongest.
20:34.2
And because of
20:35.1
their historical atrocities
20:36.3
also to Chinese.
20:38.3
There's bad blood there.
20:39.9
Do you think
20:40.3
the Philippines
20:40.7
should actively
20:41.4
be part of
20:42.3
deterring
20:43.1
an invasion of Taiwan?
20:44.9
I mean
20:45.2
in terms of
20:45.8
helping Americans.
20:46.9
Very good question.
20:47.7
I'll be honest here.
20:48.7
Yeah.
20:49.9
Which country
20:50.9
originally
20:52.5
concocted
20:53.2
the 11-dash line?
20:54.3
It was
20:54.6
it was Taiwan.
20:56.5
That was
20:56.8
Kumintang
20:57.5
Kumintang, yeah, yeah.
20:59.1
Who colonized
20:59.8
Taiwan?
21:01.4
That was
21:02.2
a Kumintang drawing.
21:03.9
And Taiwan
21:05.1
owes
21:07.1
an explanation
21:07.9
to the world
21:08.6
why they have
21:10.2
that 11-dash line.
21:12.0
And they have
21:12.9
not even
21:13.5
recognized
21:14.2
our Hague ruling.
21:15.6
And at the same time
21:16.7
they wanted
21:18.3
help and support
21:19.3
from us.
21:20.8
I've spoken
21:21.9
listen to some
21:23.0
Taiwanese scholars
21:23.8
they were saying that
21:24.8
so you choose
21:26.1
you want us to become
21:27.3
to continue
21:27.9
to become a democratic
21:28.9
nation
21:29.4
or you want us
21:31.1
to step down
21:31.9
and say sorry
21:33.2
because of what we did
21:34.4
in the past.
21:36.7
I mean
21:36.8
the question here
21:38.5
I mean I completely
21:39.0
understand
21:39.3
I asked both
21:40.4
President Tsai Ing-wen
21:41.2
and Ma Ying-ju
21:42.1
about it.
21:43.5
None of them gave me
21:44.3
a reassuring answer.
21:45.9
Or if you mind you
21:46.9
I mean at least
21:47.5
see Tsai Ing-wen
21:48.3
We also have
21:48.8
a strategic ambiguity
21:50.1
in Taiwan.
21:50.7
Yeah, exactly.
21:51.5
And because
21:51.8
you know
21:52.1
because they didn't
21:53.3
want the ruling
21:54.0
on the Itoaba
21:54.7
which we essentially said
21:55.7
it's a fake island
21:56.5
it's not a real island.
21:58.0
The reason I'm asking
21:59.0
is this because
21:59.5
we have people like
22:00.7
Admiral Ong
22:01.5
for instance
22:02.2
on my show
22:03.2
who openly said
22:04.4
actually the nightmare
22:05.4
here is China
22:06.3
occupying Taiwan
22:07.4
because you don't have
22:08.3
just a small island
22:09.2
in the West Philippine Sea
22:10.2
occupied by them.
22:11.3
Now you have a giant island
22:12.5
next to Batanas
22:13.2
and Cagayan
22:13.8
in Ilocos region.
22:15.1
And that's why
22:15.9
we cannot afford
22:16.8
not helping
22:18.9
deterrence of China
22:20.4
because if you're China
22:21.6
you're looking at
22:21.7
Russia and Ukraine
22:23.2
you're looking at
22:23.7
what's happening
22:24.2
in the Middle East
22:24.8
but it's not like
22:26.1
it's completely encouraging
22:27.3
because invasion of Taiwan
22:28.4
will be even far
22:29.1
more difficult
22:29.8
than what the Russians
22:30.6
are trying to do
22:31.2
in Ukraine.
22:32.2
Right, right.
22:32.9
But China has been
22:34.0
I mean Taiwan
22:34.9
has been exercising
22:35.8
further deterrence.
22:38.3
They keep on doing
22:39.0
that every year
22:39.9
unlike in Cagayan
22:41.1
or in those
22:42.5
coastal areas
22:43.3
in Northern Philippines.
22:44.6
We don't do that.
22:45.7
We only do that
22:46.3
during Balikatan exercise
22:47.5
recently.
22:48.9
So must prepare
22:49.9
Taiwan
22:50.3
over
22:51.7
people in Cagayan
22:52.7
Ilocos
22:53.5
and Batanas
22:54.7
basically.
22:55.5
So we should be more prepared?
22:56.9
So you're okay
22:57.4
with Balikatan exercises?
22:58.2
We have to.
22:58.3
It's the reason why
22:58.8
I think in these
22:59.4
Balikatan exercises
23:00.5
There's a near Taiwan part.
23:02.6
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
23:03.2
With 14 nations
23:04.7
observing the Balikatan
23:05.9
it's the first time
23:06.6
that this thing will happen.
23:08.4
And I think
23:09.2
the ND will also
23:10.4
rehearse
23:11.0
its
23:11.4
comprehensive
23:12.4
archipelagic defense.
23:15.2
Iplag ko lang
23:16.0
Bro, I have a new book.
23:17.8
I have just
23:18.5
finished writing
23:19.5
a new book
23:20.0
on Philippine territorial
23:21.6
defense.
23:21.7
I think
23:23.5
it's the first time
23:24.2
that we are drawing
23:25.0
into that kind of
23:25.9
debate.
23:27.4
But nonetheless
23:28.0
ang sinasabi natin
23:29.7
dito
23:30.1
it's the first time
23:31.1
that the Philippines
23:31.7
will flex its muscles
23:32.6
when it comes to
23:33.2
territorial defense.
23:34.1
Kasi nga
23:34.3
for the past
23:35.9
five decades
23:36.6
we've been focused
23:37.3
on internal defense.
23:39.0
This is the first time
23:39.9
that we are trying
23:40.6
to experiment
23:41.1
on external defense
23:42.3
on territorial defense.
23:43.7
And comprehensive
23:44.4
archipelagic defense.
23:45.6
Yes, yes.
23:46.6
The Philippines
23:47.1
hindi lang wa.
23:48.1
But the full range of it.
23:49.7
I think we'll have
23:50.4
more conversation
23:51.3
on that.
23:51.6
But the last thing
23:52.1
let's end on this episode.
23:53.4
I want to make sure
23:54.0
you're safe and strong.
23:55.8
We're safe here
23:56.7
and strong.
23:57.1
You're good, you're good.
23:57.9
You're safe.
23:58.5
We're good, we're good.
24:00.0
You're safe.
24:01.7
Last question.
24:02.7
Very serious question.
24:04.4
What is your read
24:05.1
of First Lady
24:06.1
Katuning interview
24:09.0
and saying
24:09.8
Sarah has crossed
24:11.2
the line.
24:11.9
Is it so New York
24:12.9
versus so Davao?
24:14.0
What's going on there?
24:15.7
Ito yung pinakamari
24:16.6
sa sila.
24:16.6
Sana mapatina sila
24:17.7
for the sake of our country.
24:19.3
I mean, no?
24:20.1
These are two powerful
24:21.0
ladies.
24:21.5
I mean, they are
24:22.6
well-respected
24:23.5
leaders, no?
24:26.0
Women leaders
24:27.0
in our country, no?
24:28.4
We're talking about
24:29.3
the First Lady here, no?
24:31.4
With all due respect, no?
24:33.1
We have to go to
24:34.3
to, to, to
24:35.7
Siyempre,
24:38.1
asawa ng presidente natin yun, no?
24:39.8
Sila nga yung makapangirihan.
24:41.2
And of course, no?
24:42.3
We have also to consider
24:44.0
that Sarah
24:44.8
Duterte
24:46.4
is also
24:47.9
is a fine lady
24:49.8
waiting for
24:51.5
the next line, no?
24:53.7
She could be
24:54.5
our next president, no?
24:56.3
Kaya,
24:57.1
sana magbati na kayo.
24:59.0
Huwag na away-away po.
25:01.5
Marcus Jr.,
25:03.0
ganun.
25:03.7
Oo, parang ganun.
25:05.4
Para sa bayan.
25:06.5
Para sa bayan.
25:07.4
I mean,
25:08.1
pero, of course,
25:09.0
wearing our analyst hat now, no?
25:12.7
Definitely, no?
25:13.6
We saw the
25:15.2
the evolution
25:16.9
of the relationship, no?
25:18.4
Nakita natin yung
25:19.5
very close sila
25:20.3
during the campaign
25:21.0
campaign.
25:21.5
During the campaign season.
25:22.4
Naturally, ganyan naman
25:23.3
ang Filipino politics, no?
25:26.1
You go up
25:27.1
and then dive down
25:28.1
and then magbabati.
25:29.0
No, I don't agree with you, Cabazo.
25:30.6
You had an ex-president
25:32.3
sa yung bangag yung president
25:33.9
ngayon.
25:35.2
This has never happened.
25:36.7
Let's be honest.
25:37.5
Okay, I completely disagree with you.
25:39.4
This is not a normal
25:40.6
ebb and flow.
25:41.3
Alam mo, Richard,
25:42.0
tingnan natin
25:42.6
itong 2025
25:43.4
midterm elections.
25:44.8
I think that's gonna be
25:45.7
a game-changing election
25:47.7
because
25:48.2
we might be seeing
25:49.2
the return of
25:49.9
President Duterte.
25:50.7
As senator.
25:52.8
As senator.
25:54.1
Pag nakuha niya yung
25:55.1
senator, definitely.
25:56.5
He can become
25:57.2
the Senate President.
26:00.0
So, game-changing
26:00.9
talaga yung mangyayari
26:01.9
na yun.
26:04.0
But, kaya nga,
26:05.5
we'll see.
26:06.4
Hopefully, they
26:07.1
survive this
26:08.5
quarrel,
26:09.7
this dilemma.
26:13.0
Nag-comment yung iba
26:13.9
sa amin.
26:14.3
Parang sagot mo daw,
26:15.2
parang no comment lang.
26:17.8
No comment
26:19.2
para sa bayan.
26:20.7
I mean, I wanted to ask you
26:22.1
also about the other
26:23.1
fine lady,
26:24.4
Aimee Marcos,
26:25.1
but you're still in the
26:25.9
Ilocos region.
26:27.0
Once you're
26:27.4
quiet muna.
26:28.3
Manila, let's talk about
26:29.4
Aimee,
26:30.2
dynamic church lady.
26:32.2
Kasi maraming aspect
26:33.2
itong ano na to eh.
26:34.5
Salamat, Kapsat.
26:35.5
Please take care of yourself.
26:36.8
My prayers with you
26:37.9
and your loved ones.
26:39.3
And thank you for
26:39.8
serving the nation.
26:41.4
But, hindi kailangan
26:42.1
magpakamartir.
26:43.7
Let's make everyone
26:44.8
do their contribution.
26:46.1
And I hope the media
26:47.2
also make sure
26:47.9
that when they're
26:49.2
interviewing,
26:50.1
they're getting,
26:50.7
kasi hindi nila
26:51.2
pahamak masyado.
26:52.0
Yan ang problema
26:52.4
pag sumisigat masyado.
26:53.6
Mahirap talaga.
26:54.3
Ganun talaga.
26:55.2
Mahirap maging pogi,
26:56.4
sabi nga nila.
26:57.8
Thank you so much,
26:58.9
Dr.
26:59.2
Maraming salamat.
27:01.1
Maraming salamat.
27:01.7
Thank you,
27:02.4
Dr. Chester Cabalza
27:04.3
again for that
27:04.9
very comprehensive
27:05.8
and timely discussion.
27:07.4
We always talk about
27:08.1
big picture.
27:08.9
We also talk about
27:09.3
U.S.
27:09.6
But our region,
27:11.6
the Solid North,
27:12.4
is really
27:12.8
at the forefront.
27:14.5
We're like East Berlin,
27:15.9
right?
27:16.1
We're like East Germany
27:17.3
or something like that,
27:18.2
right?
27:18.4
So this is a
27:19.1
really, really intense
27:20.3
situation.
27:20.9
So hopefully,
27:21.3
we'll have more
27:21.8
of this discussion
27:22.5
with you.
27:23.4
And I'm sure
27:23.8
by next week,
27:24.3
more pa yung marites
27:25.0
about it.
27:25.8
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
27:26.7
Of course, of course.
27:27.5
Ang fine ladies.
27:29.0
Dami na kriak
27:29.7
sa fine lady mo eh.
27:31.8
No comment.
27:32.9
No comment ako dyan.
27:34.2
God bless.
27:35.2
Okay.
27:35.7
Bye-bye.
27:37.0
God bless.