00:46.2
why is it in the headlines?
00:49.0
Yeah, from my understanding, this weapon was developed just in 2022
00:52.6
and this is, I think, the first time.
00:54.2
It's going to be deployed outside the United States, so it's not only the first time in the Indo-Pacific,
00:58.8
although we have to double-check that, so it's a huge thing in itself
01:01.6
because this year's Balikataan is going to be even probably bigger than last year
01:05.8
and last year was already historic in itself with not only U.S. and the Philippines,
01:11.0
but also the British, not to mention Australians and Japanese also in attendance
01:14.5
and President Marcos Jr. also personally observing the Balikataan exercises.
01:18.5
Now, speaking of these weapon systems, I mean, we saw also last year that the Americans,
01:23.5
if I'm not mistaken, the Americans, the Americans, the Americans, the Americans,
01:24.2
if I'm not mistaken, also use HIMARS and some of the exercises that they did with the Philippine Army
01:29.9
tried to simulate some of the things that, you know, NATO weapon systems have been doing in Ukraine against Russia.
01:37.5
So, for the past year or so, it looks like the Philippines is getting more and more comfortable
01:43.2
with seeing high-tech, cutting-edge American military technology deployed here,
01:48.6
perhaps also to send a signal and perhaps to also prepare the Philippines for,
01:53.5
potentially, down the road to have interoperability with the Americans,
01:57.3
including with the operation of these very, very advanced weapon systems.
02:01.5
Now, honestly, I'm a little bit like, medyo na pa, you know, taas ang kilay ko in a sense that
02:08.0
hindi lang dun sa Marites about the First Lady and the Vice President.
02:12.8
I'm actually checking also the back and forth between the First Lady and potentially the Senator Amy Marcos.
02:17.9
But for me, na taas ang kilay ko kasi why are we always,
02:23.5
taking China's sensitivities into consideration when the question is,
02:28.3
has China been taking our sensitivities into consideration
02:31.5
when it has been geoengineering on steroids in the South China Sea,
02:36.1
when it has been threatening Taiwan right and left with potential invasion,
02:39.7
when it has been deploying nuclear-capable submarines in the area,
02:42.8
and who knows what else they have been doing in our waters.
02:45.7
So, I think as much as we should not be adjunct provocateurs,
02:49.1
I think we also should not allow others.
02:51.1
I mean, we should not give in to what I call,
02:53.0
the diplomatic Karen, right, because this is what China does.
02:56.9
They whine and they expect you to be sensitive to their sensitivities,
03:00.9
but they're never reciprocating that,
03:02.9
and their actions do not show that they are sensitive.
03:04.9
Also, the considerations of countries like the Philippines.
03:07.5
But I'm glad that at least both President Marcos Jr. and also senior officials like Mike Lohico
03:13.5
are signaling a potential off-ramp.
03:15.5
So, Mike Lohico has said a while ago, as you pointed out,
03:19.5
that this is more for logistics and movement exercises,
03:22.5
rather than, you know, practicing shooting China.
03:26.0
And the other thing is President Marcos Jr. also the other day,
03:29.0
I think, in my opinion, correctly emphasized that we don't want to escalate the situation
03:34.0
by giving Americans new basing access near the South China Sea or Taiwan and all.
03:39.0
So, I think the Philippines is striking a proper balance here,
03:42.0
whereby it's signaling to China that,
03:44.0
hey, Americans can come here with the best weapon systems if possible,
03:48.0
and we can be interoperable with them.
03:50.0
But perhaps if you would stop bullying us,
03:52.5
or stop threatening us,
03:53.5
then perhaps we can recalibrate some of these things.
03:55.5
So, we're also signaling to China.
03:58.5
I was wondering, it says here the typhoon missile system covers the entire West Philippine Sea,
04:04.5
Taiwan Strait, and several cities in China.
04:08.5
I was wondering if this is an offensive threat to China,
04:11.5
or defensive in nature,
04:13.0
or may pagkakaiba ba ito dun sa tinatawag na David Sling ng Israel?
04:18.5
I mean, this is a kind of a mid-range.
04:23.5
You correctly pointed out how it's extremely flexible.
04:26.5
It can be deployed from surface to air.
04:29.5
It can be deployed potentially from different parts.
04:33.5
It can actually have some southern provinces in China also within its range.
04:38.5
But the Chinese have also been deploying weapon systems to the South China Sea,
04:43.5
some of the fake islands that they built there,
04:45.5
that could potentially also put us within their range, right?
04:48.5
The Chinese have also been developing this anti-access area denial system.
04:51.5
The anti-access area denial capabilities,
04:54.5
the asymmetric capabilities with typhoon missile systems
04:57.5
that could also put a lot of American assets in the area within their range.
05:00.5
So for me, while we have to make sure that we're not unnecessarily threatening China,
05:06.5
I think we also have to take into consideration that we have to also be in a position to defend ourselves.
05:11.5
And if we are within the range of China,
05:13.5
and neither us nor our key allies are in a position to also put China within the range,
05:18.5
then there's no balance of forces.
05:20.5
So I think what we have to keep in mind is we have to have sufficient balance.
05:27.5
Richard, we lost your audio. Can you still hear us?
05:31.5
Yes, I can hear you guys.
05:32.5
Okay, we lost your audio. Just the last sentence.
05:34.5
What we need is a balance of forces here, right?
05:37.5
Because China is developing the capabilities that puts us within their range of attack.
05:41.5
So we also have to be open to the liability to also deploy weapon systems to our allies or ourselves.
05:48.5
So it's basically...
05:50.5
Like a tit for tat, right?
05:52.5
Like we have this, but I also have this.
05:55.5
Is that the optics that we want to give off?
05:59.5
Well, the tit for tat is more like what we're seeing in the Middle East right now.
06:02.5
So no one is hitting each other right now, right?
06:04.5
This is just missile defense systems, right?
06:07.5
It's more like if you hit us, then we can hit you back.
06:09.5
But thank God no one is in that position.
06:11.5
And I think it's quite natural in a very tense situation right now for the Philippines
06:16.5
to consider the possibility of either having the Americans deploy it,
06:19.5
or us having the basic capabilities to operate it down the road.
06:23.5
But as I said, it's too early to talk about that.
06:25.5
Because these are just drills.
06:27.5
This is just America doing it for logistical purposes.
06:29.5
But I think the signal to China is very, very important.
06:32.5
We're essentially telling China that, yes, you're the superpower in this region.
06:35.5
Yes, you have fantastic weapon systems.
06:37.5
Yes, we're smaller compared to you.
06:39.5
But we also have cards to play.
06:41.5
And this could be one of the cards.
06:42.5
Because one of the things that we have not clarified yet is...
06:44.5
But Richard, wait. Hold that thought, though.
06:46.5
What kind of weapons...
06:47.5
Richard, hold that thought.
06:48.5
Is that what we are wanting to show to China?
06:51.5
The message that we're sending to China?
06:53.5
Or is that the message that the U.S. is sending to China?
06:56.5
Because it could be also perceived as that.
06:58.5
And we're just kind of like the conduit for that.
07:02.5
My concern with that line of argumentation is
07:05.5
we are the one directly being bullied in the West Philippine Sea.
07:08.5
And we will be targeted almost certainly if there's going to be an invasion of Taiwan.
07:13.5
Ipso facto, because we're a U.S. ally.
07:15.5
So again, I completely understand that we should not be afraid.
07:18.5
We should not be a pawn for any superpower.
07:20.5
We should not be just a forward deployment base for Americans.
07:23.5
I always say we should not be the Pearl Harbor of America
07:26.5
in a potential new Cold War with China or worse.
07:28.5
I agree with all of that.
07:30.5
But the thing is, we are almost helpless here.
07:32.5
We have nothing to match what China is doing in the South China Sea
07:36.5
and potentially what China could do if they occupy Taiwan.
07:39.5
So either through our allies or more directly,
07:41.5
we have to signal to China that we also have some options and some cards to play.
07:46.5
And as I said, remember,
07:47.5
my argument always was it's about balance of forces but also leverage.
07:51.5
So indirectly, we can tell the Chinese that,
07:53.5
okay, if you don't want us to allow the Americans to have more of these weapon systems deployed,
07:57.5
if you don't want us to get HIMARS and other weapon systems from Americans,
08:00.5
if you don't want us to give more access to Americans, who knows,
08:03.5
potentially to Mavulis, if not Pagasa, of course, theoretically,
08:07.5
then maybe you also have to do something good in return.
08:10.5
So the thing is this.
08:12.5
Diplomacy doesn't work with China or any country like that
08:16.5
if you have no leverage.
08:18.5
So in my opinion, while there's always a little risk and China is going to make noise,
08:22.5
but this could give us a certain degree of leverage.
08:24.5
And by the way, South Korea in the past also had a similar problem with China
08:28.5
when they actually allowed THAAD missile systems to be deployed there in South Korea permanently
08:33.5
in the U.S. bases in South Korea close to the borders of China.
08:37.5
There was a lot of back and forth, but eventually,
08:39.5
South Korea got its way despite some diplomatic tensions.
08:43.5
That's already South Korea.
08:44.5
That's already next to China's borders.
08:46.5
So I think as much as we have to be not Auslan provocateurs or pawns of America,
08:50.5
we should also not be oversensitive to whining and Karen diplomacy
08:55.5
and at the same time think about proper balance of forces.
08:58.5
We have very few cards to play.
09:00.5
So it's always good to have an additional card up our sleeves.
09:03.5
All right. That's all the time we have for tonight.
09:06.5
But thank you as usual for your insights and for your time tonight.
09:10.5
It's a Friday, as I keep saying to all our guests.
