RET. SENIOR ASSOC. JUSTICE CARPIO, SINAGOT ANG MGA SINASABI NINA ROQUE AT MGA DDS
01:02.8
Less than 5% materialized.
01:05.3
Now, Japan and the U.S. are saying we will provide $100 billion, five times.
01:12.8
And I think Japan will deliver because Japan is our biggest aid donor and they can deliver.
01:19.8
And the U.S. will not want to be locked together with China, pledging so much and actually not
01:29.2
And it's easy for them to deliver this promise because the U.S. semiconductor companies are leaving China.
01:40.8
So they can just tell them to relocate in the Philippines.
01:44.6
I mean, they're in the process of relocating.
01:47.5
So the State Department could just encourage them to relocate in the Philippines.
01:52.0
So it's very easy for them to meet that figure, that $100 billion figure over five years.
01:59.2
So this is something big because it generates a lot of employment.
02:04.9
These very labor-intensive production lines.
02:11.1
So it's a good thing.
02:15.3
And I think we expect we will get, aside from that $100 billion, there's a bipartisan bill
02:25.9
to provide $2.5 billion in military.
02:28.7
$2.5 billion in military.
02:28.7
$2.5 billion in military.
02:28.8
$2.5 billion in military.
02:28.8
$2.5 billion in military.
02:28.8
$2.5 billion in military.
02:28.9
$2.5 billion in military.
02:29.2
$2.5 billion in military assistance.
02:30.7
And that's also a big amount.
02:33.0
So, and I think that is not part of the aid package to Ukraine and Israel that is now
02:46.1
That is a separate bill.
02:47.3
So I think this will go, it's a bipartisan bill.
02:50.5
So it will go quickly and it will be passed quickly.
02:55.8
I mean, Justice Carpenter, I think this is where we slightly,
02:58.8
I think this is where we slightly diverge back in the day because I think everyone was worried about debt trap.
03:02.8
I said, don't worry about debt trap, worry about pledge trap, like empty pledges and nothing comes in.
03:08.9
So I turned out as more correct and pessimistic, right?
03:12.9
Because I said, debt trap means there's investment.
03:16.0
This is not true.
03:16.7
We really got duterte in the way of Digong.
03:19.8
But Justice Carpenter, speaking of this defense aid, what do you think we should focus on in terms of this defense aid?
03:28.0
Because the economic,
03:28.7
the economic corridor makes sense to me.
03:30.4
Semiconductors, critical infrastructure development, port facilities, green technology and climate resilience.
03:38.2
So everything is there.
03:39.3
It ticks all the boxes.
03:40.2
So let's just hope things will trickle in over the next coming months and years.
03:44.7
But it is a defense aid.
03:46.3
Do you think it's important that U.S.
03:47.7
finally we get the multi-role vessels, the F-15X or F-15, some of the more modern warships?
03:53.6
Because I'll be honest, Justice, maybe you don't agree with me, but my frustration is I look around the world.
03:56.7
Justice, maybe you don't agree with me, but my frustration is I look around the world.
03:57.3
Justice, maybe you don't agree with me, but my frustration is I look around the world.
03:57.5
Justice, maybe you don't agree with me, but my frustration is I look around the world.
03:57.6
Justice, maybe you don't agree with me, but my frustration is I look around the world.
03:59.2
Israel has got, what, hundreds of billions of aid from U.S. throughout the decades.
04:04.5
Egypt got close to, what, $100 billion aid throughout the decades.
04:08.1
Pakistan, Jordan.
04:09.9
I mean, I can go on and on about countries that are not even U.S.
04:12.6
allies, not even in war like Ukraine.
04:14.8
And yet it looks like they have got more solid investment, sorry, defense aid from the U.S.
04:20.1
I mean, Jordanian Air Force, Pakistani Air Force.
04:22.8
They have, I think, F-16 fighters.
04:25.4
Yes, we can blame the Philippines.
04:27.6
But my sense is we were also taken for granted for quite some time.
04:31.9
And perhaps now it's time for a catch-up.
04:33.8
I mean, what is your read on this, Justice Carpio?
04:35.9
I mean, I don't mind if you don't agree with my read, but this is my read on this issue.
04:39.9
The measure taken for granted by before.
04:42.5
Well, the facts are there.
04:43.9
They got more aid, military aid than us.
04:47.6
And I think the reason for that is that these were the flash points.
04:53.0
These were the burning issues, no?
04:59.1
So they had to appease Pakistan.
05:01.1
And Egypt, they had to compete with Russia in providing military aid to Egypt to moderate Egypt's behavior against Israel.
05:11.4
And of course, Israel is another completely different thing, no?
05:15.5
So they did not see any urgent need to provide us with military aid until now.
05:22.2
I think now they realize that they have to stand up.
05:27.3
They have to stand up to China already.
05:28.7
And that's why they decided to give focus to the Philippines.
05:36.9
And I think that's why they're already giving us more aid, no?
05:43.4
Because this is now the flash point, the new flash point in world geopolitics, no?
05:54.0
And I think that's why we're getting...
05:57.3
This attention already.
05:58.3
Because there's really trouble now in the South China Sea.
06:02.6
So your argument is because America's threat perceptions are shifting towards China and Asia,
06:09.1
and not to mention the real threat of military confrontation in the South China Sea and West Philippine Sea,
06:14.3
it's just natural for the U.S. to pay more attention to us.
06:17.0
But are there specific things you think that we should see as part of this foreign military financing?
06:22.6
I think $500 million annually is a target of this new package.
06:26.8
What do you want to see in that $500 million?
06:29.3
Aside from M16 guns and all of that, we really need something more advanced, right?
06:36.9
Missile systems, multirole fighters, foreign warships.
06:43.0
Well, I would like to see HIMARS.
06:46.1
Because the HIMARS that can reach the Chinese artificial islands in the Spratlys.
06:54.8
Because right now,
06:55.6
those artificial islands hold us hostage.
06:59.8
They can destroy our air bases in Palawan because our air bases are fixed.
07:06.9
But we have no capacity to destroy them without the HIMARS.
07:13.0
Well, probably when we get the BrahMos missiles, we can.
07:16.5
But with the HIMARS, very accurate, it will really hit within a few meters.
07:23.5
So that will really destroy the runway.
07:25.6
So we should get the HIMARS.
07:31.5
And they gave HIMARS to Malaysia.
07:34.3
They sold HIMARS to Malaysia.
07:36.1
There's a reason why we couldn't get the HIMARS.
07:40.7
That's a very good point.
07:42.1
What we need are missiles that the Chinese in their islands in the Spratlys.
07:53.1
Because if we have those missiles,
07:55.6
we now control the Chinese.
08:01.0
Right now, they control us because they can destroy us anytime and we have no defense.
08:05.5
We cannot fight back.
08:06.6
But if we can destroy them anytime and the HIMARS are mobile, they cannot destroy the HIMARS.
08:12.3
Then, we control them.
08:15.6
That's a very good point.
08:17.6
And I think the HIMARS can also enter, I mean, these missile defense systems in the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Strategy,
08:25.4
they can be adopted.
08:27.4
It looks like they match properly on that front.
08:29.4
Justice Caprio, what about Japan?
08:33.4
What do you want to see in terms of Japan?
08:35.4
Do you think a VFA with Japan will be a step too far?
08:39.4
Assuming internally, the Japanese will be even in a position to pull that off because of the pacifist party,
08:45.4
Komeito within the LDP coalition.
08:49.4
Internally, they don't have a problem.
08:51.4
Do you think rotational access for Japanese will be a problem?
08:53.4
Do you think rotational access for Japanese will be a problem?
08:55.4
And would the Japanese control the Japanese self defense forces is reasonable or perhaps a breach too far?
08:57.4
Is reasonable or perhaps a breach too far?
08:59.4
Is reasonable or perhaps a breach too far?
09:01.4
Well, I think the Japanese public will accept that already.
09:03.4
Well, I think the Japanese public will accept that already.
09:05.4
Well, I think the Japanese public will accept that already.
09:07.4
It's something that's being discussed.
09:09.4
And I think the Japanese government thinks that there will be no strong opposition from the Japanese public,
09:15.4
And I think the Japanese government thinks that there will be no strong opposition from the Japanese public,
09:18.4
considering what's happening now.
09:20.4
So, I think we will have a VCOThis is an agreement
09:23.4
Mitsubasa is in favor of this agreement.
09:24.4
agreement. It can be
09:25.9
named differently.
09:29.1
Right now, we have
09:30.3
with Australia, we should have
09:34.2
and then with UK and France.
09:38.4
I think eventually, we
09:40.4
will have something
09:42.5
like that with them.
09:44.3
Fantastic five. A fantastic
09:46.4
five situation. The French,
09:48.5
the British, the Japanese, Australian, the Americans.
09:51.0
Obviously, mababash na naman tayo
09:52.3
ng mga leftist friends natin.
09:53.6
Ito na naman, say Darian at Carpe,
09:56.1
binenta naman yung bahayan natin sa mga
09:58.1
dayuhan mga afam.
10:00.6
Kalit lang daw tayo sa China.
10:03.3
France, UK, Australia,
10:06.3
you cannot accuse them of
10:08.1
territorial ambition
10:09.7
or they have any territorial
10:12.1
designs on the Philippines or
10:14.0
maritime designs. There's only one.
10:15.6
In the 21st century.
10:17.3
In the 21st century.
10:18.5
There's only one, yeah, in the present
10:20.5
century. But there is only, in the present
10:22.7
century, there's only...
10:23.6
There's only one country that wants
10:24.9
our territory and maritime zones.
10:29.5
But of course, sa sabi nila,
10:31.3
China is doing it because
10:32.8
binabuli sila ng American empire.
10:35.3
They're surrounded by American
10:37.0
bases. Di ba ganun yung line?
10:38.4
You know, that's what I've been...
10:40.6
That's what they, you know,
10:42.5
the Chinese tell me.
10:49.7
at their hands for a century.
10:52.5
The century of humanism.
10:53.6
That's why we, we are exacting our events.
10:58.9
And I said, why are you exacting your events on us?
11:02.2
We never occupy the square
11:03.9
inch of your territory.
11:05.5
When, when the alliance of Europeans and the
11:09.8
Japanese and Russians occupied Beijing in that
11:14.1
Boxer Rebellion, we were fighting the Americans.
11:17.3
We were under Western colonizers for more than 300 years.
11:23.6
We were as oppressed, more oppressed than you.
11:26.8
So why do you take your events on us?
11:30.0
We never, we never occupied the single square inch of your territory.
11:35.1
So, the narrative that because they suffered at the hands of the Europeans,
11:41.3
they should get the South China Sea.
11:42.9
It doesn't compute.
11:45.3
They should get the Atlantic Ocean.
11:47.3
I mean, the Russians do the same, right?
11:50.7
Kahil inatak sila ni Hitler nung,
11:53.4
World War II or, I don't know, Frederick the Great or the Swedes.
11:56.8
Now they have to colonize Ukraine again.
11:58.7
I mean, that kind of nonsense revanchist arguments.
12:00.9
But I mean, you can say, I mean, the Mongolians probably have more to say na dahil inapi sila ng
12:06.7
Soviet Union, they have to reclaim their, I mean, you can go down this road of this ridiculous.
12:12.2
I always say, if you had 100 years of humiliation, we had 500 years of humiliation, right?
12:16.9
Including the humiliation you're visiting on us nowadays.
12:20.1
Mukhang napiko na mga Chinese when we use the term bully, no?
12:23.8
Like immediately they keep on saying, we're not a bully, we're not.
12:26.5
I think they're very scared of being shown as an imperialist power in their own right.
12:31.8
Yeah, but they are.
12:32.7
I mean, they're seeking hegemony in the South China Sea and they're the only one that's still expanding.
12:40.1
They're the only one that's still expanding their territory along with Russia.
12:45.9
There are only two countries now that are expanding their territory, annexing the territory of other countries.
12:52.9
Russia and China.
12:55.2
Baka may gentleman's agreement din yung dalawa na yan.
12:59.3
You never know, baka Putin and Xi as a gentleman agreement.
13:03.9
I think, you know what?
13:06.2
I think they have to get the territories of other countries because if they can't get the territories of their other countries,
13:13.5
they will get their own, each other's territory.
13:15.9
Yeah, Siberia is a big problem.
13:18.3
They will fight over Siberia.
13:22.9
So, right, actually, di ba nung nag-release ng 10-dash line ang China,
13:26.5
isa sa mga bansa na napikon na hindi natin minention is Russia.
13:30.0
Because dun sa 10-dash line, sama yung Russian territory.
13:33.7
They're changing the names of Vladivostok into Chinese names.
13:38.9
I mean, this is crazy, no?
13:41.3
Of course, I find it ironic because China, today's China, claims to be a Han nation
13:45.4
and yet they're claiming what was conquered by the Manchus, right?
13:48.8
Which are not considered as Han.
13:50.0
But there's a long conversation.
13:51.2
Now, going back to this,
13:52.9
I think we should look at getting from the other important partners.
13:57.7
Or, sorry, acquiring.
13:58.8
I don't want to use the word getting.
13:59.9
Baka mendikan tang labas.
14:01.5
Like Japan, for instance.
14:02.8
What do you think Japan can offer?
14:04.0
I mean, the French are offering submarines.
14:06.2
The British, obviously, fortunately.
14:08.4
The Japanese have always been giving us the...
14:12.5
or donating or selling us through loans,
14:18.6
postcard vessels.
14:20.2
Because before, they were not allowed to sell warships.
14:25.6
But they've started to sell already radars to us or give us radars.
14:31.7
So, I think we can get postcard vessels and radar telecommunications from Japan.
14:41.3
And do you think looking at even getting advanced fighter jets from Japan
14:45.6
or those kinds of things?
14:46.9
Because I think they just approved recently export of next-gen radars.
14:50.2
For next-generation fighters in Japan.
14:51.4
So, do you think those should be also some of our targets down the road?
14:54.7
Na hindi lang tayo masasabi?
14:57.5
Actually, they're developing a 6th generation now.
15:01.4
Together with UK.
15:02.4
The Italians and UK, yeah.
15:06.0
Well, they will retire their F-2s, no?
15:10.4
Their copy of the F-16.
15:14.2
So, maybe they will give us some of those.
15:18.5
So, there's so much here.
15:20.2
So, there's so much here to look at.
15:22.5
Now, Justice Carpenter, moving forward,
15:24.5
what do you think we should see Ayungin Shoal in particular?
15:28.9
Because this looks like quite a dangerous flashpoint
15:32.2
with huge, huge implications.
15:34.5
I mean, we just saw over the weekend,
15:35.9
there could be almost a huge war in the Middle East.
15:41.1
First of all, are you worried that the US may be overstretched
15:43.7
with conflicts in the Middle East, conflicts in Ukraine?
15:46.5
I mean, the Middle East situation is quite worrying
15:48.4
as what we saw just over the weekend.
15:50.2
Or do you think you're confident enough
15:52.1
that the United States could still be a reliable partner
15:54.3
in this part of the world?
15:55.3
But also, what should we do?
15:57.0
I mean, should we ask Americans to join us in resupply missions?
16:00.8
Should Americans directly contribute?
16:02.5
Or should they just be over the horizon with drones?
16:05.6
Should they provide some engineering technology to us
16:09.1
so that we can fortify it better on our own?
16:11.1
What are we looking at here, Justice Carpenter,
16:13.1
the next steps in Ayungin Shoal?
16:15.2
In Ayungin Shoal, we should convert our presence there
16:20.2
from military to non-military
16:22.2
because the tribunal said
16:24.1
we cannot assume jurisdiction over your petition
16:30.4
that we order China to stop their dangerous maneuvers
16:34.4
because these are military activities
16:36.1
and that's outside the jurisdiction.
16:38.2
So, we should convert our presence to non-military.
16:41.4
We put up a lighthouse operated by the Coast Guard.
16:46.1
We put up a research center by the UP Institute of Marine Sciences.
16:50.2
And we put up there a substation of Coast Guard.
16:53.4
They can park their two small vessels
16:55.4
so any armed attack on those two Coast Guard vessels
16:59.1
would trigger the operation of the MDT,
17:03.8
Middle Defense City.
17:04.8
Of course, China will stop us
17:06.3
from sending the construction materials
17:08.4
but then we can go to the tribunal now
17:10.9
and this time we will say
17:12.7
this is now a civilian, non-military activity
17:15.2
because we are putting up this marine research center,
17:20.2
and we can win another award
17:22.5
and the more awards we win,
17:24.7
the more support we will get from the rest of the world.
17:28.8
But of course, right now,
17:31.3
our Navy is confident that even if it's difficult,
17:34.2
we can still supply Sierra Madre,
17:37.2
continue the supply,
17:39.1
and even if we are a water cannon,
17:42.7
the sympathy of the world will be with us
17:45.7
if we have those video footage.
17:48.1
So, actually, China is losing.
17:50.2
Here, the PR war.
17:54.1
So, I don't know what kind of steps the Navy will do.
17:57.9
Maybe they will send a more hardened supply ship
18:01.1
that can withstand these water cannons.
18:04.2
But I think eventually we have to shift
18:07.7
to a non-military presence
18:09.1
because no matter what we say,
18:12.1
even if we keep on repairing Sierra Madre,
18:15.2
it will collapse one day
18:17.3
because you can repair it only up to a certain extent.
18:20.2
So, lighthouse or something like that
18:23.3
is the way forward?
18:26.4
A lighthouse so that it will become a civilian activity.
18:31.1
Do we have the technology for that?
18:32.7
Engineering technology to make a lot of over...
18:35.4
This is not even a rock.
18:37.3
I mean, this is a low-tide elevation.
18:38.7
So, should we do a reclamation there?
18:40.5
Wouldn't that be...
18:41.4
We can install a lighthouse
18:44.2
during the time of President FDR.
18:49.1
There was a plan.
18:50.2
To put up lighthouses in all of these spaces.
18:53.4
And these are modular, solar-powered.
18:57.3
But then, the foreign secretary at the time opposed it
19:02.0
because he said China will be angry.
19:05.7
And that foreign secretary was planning to run
19:08.2
as Secretary General of the UN.
19:10.4
And of course, China...
19:11.3
You see that happen.
19:14.7
I just have a slight issue with your proposal.
19:17.4
I completely see where you're coming from, Justice.
19:20.2
The thing I say is,
19:23.5
the US is very clear that they will come to our rescue
19:25.9
kung na-attack yung troops natin,
19:28.4
aircrafts and vessels.
19:29.6
So, clearly, this is our military.
19:31.6
So, kung tinanggal mo yung military natin sa ayong insulge,
19:34.3
wouldn't that limit America's MDT commitments
19:37.2
or allow them to have more equivocation?
19:40.8
Because the US said,
19:42.3
any armed attack on a Philippine public vessel,
19:45.7
and they put this,
19:46.7
including the Coast Guard.
19:48.1
So, public vessel.
19:49.9
Not necessarily...
19:50.2
That's why I said,
19:51.0
let's put the Coast Guard substation there.
19:54.5
I didn't hear the Coast Guard part.
19:56.7
Yes, Coast Guard, yes.
19:57.9
Let's put the Coast Guard vessel there,
20:00.1
and that will be...
20:02.6
They'll have to attack that Coast Guard vessel.
20:06.0
And in terms of resupply,
20:09.1
do you think the Americans should be over the horizon
20:11.0
with some drones and corvettes,
20:13.1
something like that?
20:14.1
I think we have to consider that
20:16.9
if we really cannot resupply our troops,
20:20.2
as long as we can resupply our troops,
20:23.0
even if we are water cannon,
20:24.4
we should continue
20:25.1
because we're actually getting the sympathy of the world.
20:29.6
Yeah, so in short,
20:33.6
halikan na kasama ka.
20:38.8
kapag buklot ay may pag-asa.
20:42.0
Susunbis sa Yasmin Canao,
20:46.4
Sa bagong Pilipinas ang bunyog.
20:54.3
Bunyog, bunyog, bunyog.
